2023 Farm Draft Diary

I don't think I can recall a farm draft from any past season that I was less excited about than this one. There isn't a single player on my lengthy draft list who excites me. There isn't a single player who has a better than 50/50 chance of ever seeing the big leagues. What the fuck is the point of this? What a monumental waste of time. And now we get to fill in 20 farm spots instead of 15. I hate each and every person who voted for this farm expansion.

But enough about me and my seething hatred. Let's take a look at my top ten. As I type, we are four picks into this draft, and already, I've seen one player selected who was not on my radar at all. That player, Jackson Merrill, happens to be the #22 prospect in baseball according to FanGraphs. I know who he is. He was on my list a year ago. I assumed someone had taken him already. No matter how much time I waste-- er, spend-- researching for this stupid fucking farm draft, I always miss someone. This year is no exception.

Top Ten:

1. Bryan Ramos, 3B, ChW
2. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
3. Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian
4. Miguel Bleis, OF, Bos
5. Derek Curiel, OF, HS
6. Aiden Miller, 3B, HS
7. Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
8. Rhett Lowder, P, Wake Forest
9. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
10. Colt Keith, 3B, Det

My #1 choice is a guy who has been described as "projects as solid-average regular in MLB." That is how exciting this draft is. That list above is completely interchangeable. Swap #10 for #1 and I'd be fine with it. It literally doesn't matter.

Winter Trades Wrap-Up

It looks like we're done trading for the winter, so it's probably safe to post this wrap-up of our winter trades. Maybe.

The very first item on our winter to-do list was to somehow jettison $4 million, as we were sitting $4 million above the cap heading into this winter trading season. My first inclination was to trade Framber Valdez along with one of our expensive free agents from last year. As much as I didn't want to trade Framber, it seemed like he was our best (only?) trade chit.

We initially asked for what I thought was an extremely reasonable package deal from the Los Altos Undertakers, but GM Paulson balked at that deal. Instead of getting the fifth-place pitcher in the AL Cy Young voting, Paulson ended up with the NL Cy Young winner. It's good to be Jeff Paulson.

For reasons I still can't explain, we received very little interest in Valdez. I guess people are turned off by guys with 200+ innings, a sub-3.00 ERA, and an MLB record 25 consecutive quality starts. So, I moved on to Plan B.

The one and only ranked prospect we have on our farm is Sal Frelick, so of course he had to go. This may be the year where we rank dead-last in the BDBL Farm Report with a grand total of zero points. Flagstaff GM Greg "Hoss" Newgard was kind enough to take Frelick off our hands, along with $6 million in mostly-useless Steven Matz salary. Oh, and we had to throw in the best pitcher from the 2022 draft, Connor Prielipp, just to make it fair.

With that monkey off our backs, I was able to focus on improving our 2023 team as cheaply as possible. Ravenswood GM Brian "Skiz" Potrafka began inquiring about Lance Lynn and/or Ranger Suarez. Both have good value this year, but both carry burdensome salaries. Dumping one of those salaries was a bonus I hadn't considered. Skiz was more interested in Lynn, so I offered him in exchange for somewhat-useful bullpen arm Buck Farmer. Done deal.

With several holes to fill on our active roster, and very little money to fill those holes (even after those two trades above), I was able to fill a gaping hole in the outfield with the $500,000 bat of Austin Slater. He cost us Ricardo Cabrera, who will now become the next Wander F'ing Franco, guaranteed. Unfortunately, Slater can only play about four chapters this year, so we'll have to find someone to fill those other two.

Paulson floated a bunch of names on the Selling forum, including another decent and cheap bullpen arm, Carl Edwards. I sent him some names I'd be willing to trade, and of course he chose the name I least wanted to trade out of the bunch, Enrique Bradfield.

Lastly, Chicago GM John Gill is in the midst of his annual winter purge, where everything must go, go, go! One of those things, A.J. Minter, interested me enough to offer our best remaining prospect, Jace Jung. Minter (70 IP, 418/608 splits) automatically becomes our closer.

As it stands, we look pretty good pitching-wise:

Starting rotation
1. Shohei Ohtani: 166-124-14-44-219, 636/518
2. Framber Valdez: 201-166-11-67-194, 505/621
3. Ranger Suarez: 155-149-15-58-129, 538/757
4. Jon Gray: 127-105-17-39-134, 731/602
5. Luis H. Garcia: 157-131-23-47-157
6. J.P. Sears: 70-67-8-23-51, 684/723

Bullpen
1. A.J. Minter: 70-49-5-15-94, 418/608
2. David Bednar: 52-42-4-16-69, 545/670
3. Buck Farmer: 47-36-2-25-54, 683/563
4. Ryan Tepera: 57-42-7-20-47, 625/614
5. Carl Edwards: 62-51-8-25-56, 628/673

We're only about 50 innings short in the rotation and 120 innings short overall. Hopefully we can pick up some under-appreciated arms for cheap in the draft. I feel good about both the rotation and bullpen. Ohtani and Valdez are studs. The bullpen isn't Undertakers good, but it's good enough. We should be okay pitching-wise.

The offense is a different story. We have some good bats, especially against right-handers, but far too many holes to fill and no money to fill them.

Lineup vs. LH
1. Andrew Benintendi, LF: .269/.347/.328
2. Trea Turner, SS: .298/.344/.542
3. Garrett Stubbs, C: .333/.429/.750
4. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .263/.329/.459
5. Austin Slater, RF: .277/.379/.445
6. Rafael Devers, 3B: .272/.315/.424
7. Mark Canha, CF: .241/.335/.398
8. TBD, 1B
9. TBD, 2B

It would have been hugely helpful if Brandon Belt had hit his weight last year. How someone can be so consistently good for so long and then just implode is a true mystery. Likewise, how Brandon Crawford could go from awesome to absolute garbage in the blink of an eye is one of baseball's greatest mysteries. That's what I get for signing Giants. Thanks to those two assholes, I have no one to play on the right side of the infield.

Lineup vs. RH
1. Andrew Benintendi, LF: .318/.384/.428
2. Rafael Devers, 3B: .304/.374/.557
3. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .278/.370/.551
4. Adley Rutschman, C: .280/.386/.503
5. Mark Canha, CF: .280/.385/.405
6. Austin Slater, RF: .246/.350/.361
7. Trea Turner, SS: .298/.342/.440
8. TBD, 1B
9. TBD, 2B

This is actually a pretty good lineup. We still have two glaring holes to fill -- three when Ohtani pitches (unless DMB releases that patch -- LOLOL!) But having five batters with a .370+ OBP in an era where the average OBP has plummeted to just .312 is pretty damn good.

After all is said and done, we have $6 million to spend and 15 players to spend it on -- including eight who will have to be carried on the active roster. Needless to say, I'll be watching the auction from the sidelines.

Welcome to Florida!

The boxes have been unpacked. The uniforms have been ordered. The websites have been updated. The long-awaited franchise name change from the Salem Cowtippers to the Florida Mulligans is now official.

With that, allow me to give you a tour of our brand-new facility, located in sunny (and often rainy) Central Florida. We brainstormed to come up with the most intimidating name possible; something that will strike fear directly into the hearts of every opponent who dares to enter our home. We could think of nothing more appropriate than "The Sand Trap."

Like its predecessor in Salem, The Sand Trap features an invisible retractable dome. Salem's Sam Adams Stadium pioneered this engineering marvel way back in 1999, leverging the same techology used to create Wonder Woman's invisible jet plane. We hired the same team of engineers to work for us in Florida. As a result, you will see no visual evidence whatsoever that this stadium is, in fact, covered by a retractable roof.

The dimensions of The Sand Trap are exactly the same as Sam Adam Stadium. In fact, weirdly enough, so are the ballpark factors for both left- and right-handed hitters! This is the result of our tireless work with engineers and mathematicians from NASA, who ensured that there would be no significant change in factors between the two ballparks.

Visually, you can see that our ballpark sits adjacent to the 18th hole of our brand-new world class golf course, designed by Tiger Woods himself. Each hole on this course is guaranteed to result in at least one lost golf ball for the average golfer. Fortunately, the course rules allow for one mulligan per hole.

We managed to salvage two souvenirs from Sam Adams Stadium before rampaging Cowtippers fans tore the place apart:

On the left, we have our championship banner from 2019. Sadly, someone from the moving team thought it would be a good idea to wash it after transporting it. The genius then tossed it in the dryer, so you can see it is much smaller now. In the middle is the statue of Kike Hernandez that had once graced center field in the old stadium. To the right are the two retired numbers from the Cowtippers franchise: Lance Berkman's #17 and Greg Newgard's #12. Now that Newgard has un-retired, and has once again become our sworn enemy, we should probably toss that number in the bonfire. We'll leave it up for now.

Our center field Jumbotron features our newest Florida Mulligans phenom, and the man we hope will become the face of this reborn franchise over the next decade, Adley Rutschman:

Of course, if past history is any indication of future performance, we've just jinxed Adley forever.

Throughout the ballpark, I have added tributes to each of my three sons. To the left of Adley is a tribute to my youngest son, Jack:

To call Jack a Chuck-E-Cheese enthusiast would be the understatement of all understatements. His love for all things animatronic has led him to a burgeoning career in the industry. His collection, which he calls "Creative Enjuneeering", has taken over his bedroom, our garage, and is on the verge of taking over our entire house.

My middle son, Jeremy, loves purple Doritos almost as much as Jack loves animatronics. The purple Doritos bag in right field is his tribute. That sits on top of three advertisements: one for the place where I hope to retire someday, one for my favorite local restaurant (within walking distance!), and one for the box of balls that I order almost every week for some reason.

Just to the right of those ads is a tribute to my cat, Stewart. I never thought I would ever -- ever -- own a cat, but the little bastard walked right into my life and now he's here to stay.

My oldest son, Ryan, once owned a franchise in the BDBL called the Granite State Lightning (now the Darien Blue Wave.) Ryan's ballpark was named "Yoda Yard." It featured a statue of Dagobah's most famous resident, which we salvaged from the junk yard in Salem, New Hampshire, and installed beyond our right field bleachers.

To Yoda's left is another longtime Salem treasure, Carl's Bar-B-Q. The "Eat at Carl's" sign at Sam Adams Stadium was an ubiquitous fixture in Salem for over twenty years. Carl is gone, but his legacy remains with us forever. In keeping with tradition, passed down by former BDBL legend Phil Geisel, if you ask for one hotdog at Carl's, you get two. If you don't want any, they'll give you one anyway. (And if you really, really, don't want one, just ask for "negative one.")

Of course, our new ballpark also features our eleven (and counting) division banners, plus our six blue Ozzie League championship banners. Hopefully, this change of location/name brings with it a change of luck, and we can add a few more of those blue banners -- and maybe even another big white one.

The Florida Mulligans are officially open for business. Bring on 2023!

Salem Cowtippers Host Mysterious Event

Following their latest devastating playoffs loss, the Salem Cowtippers organization announced a special event at Sam Adams Stadium on Sunday, November 20th. Not only was admission to this event free of charge, but the organization announced that it would be an "open bar" for the entirety of the event.

Needless to say, speculation about this mysterious event reached a fever pitch, with the ballclub remaining tight-lipped while the fandom ran wild with rumors and hearsay. Was this event scheduled as a thank-you to the fans of Salem for supporting this team despite their repeated history of failure in the postseason? Was this some sort of delayed celebration for the team's ultimately-meaningless eleventh division championship? An early Christmas celebration? An apology for putting these fans through yet another disappointing ending to an otherwise successful season? Or was something far more sinister afoot?

It was first-come, first-seat, for the standing-room-only crowd that gathered. An elaborate stage was erected on top of the infield, and energetic music blared from the sound system. The festivities began right on schedule, before a jam-packed house of shivering fans who braved the freezing pre-Thanksgiving temperatures for the promise of free beer. A door in center field opened, and a golf cart driven by team owner Mike Glander appeared. Riding shotgun was none other than Big Daddy himself, Glander's long-time bench coach and sidekick, Rick Reuschel. The stadium erupted with applause as the two men made their way to center stage.

"Thank you all for coming!" Glander shouted into the microphone. "We have a lot to cover today, but first and foremost, I want to thank you, the greatest fans in the BDBL, for your support and dedication to this franchise in goods times and bad. Thank you, Salem, New Hampshire!"

Glander allowed the deafening applause to subside before he announced. "And now, let's all give a warm welcome to Salem's own Godsmack!"

The stage instantly transformed, with the members of the band Godsmack appearing from below the stage. They instantly launched into a rocking rendition of "Awake" as the Salem fans shook the stadium to its foundation. The free Sam Adams beer continued to generously flow as the band played several more of their greatest hits before disappearing back beneath the stage.

A video montage began on the center field Jumbotron, showing all of the team's greatest moments in franchise history: Greg Maddux's 26th win in 1999, Sammy Sosa's 60th home run in 2002, David Weathers recording the final out of the 2002 OLCS in Game Seven against Los Altos, Mike Magnante's walk-off grand slam home run in the 2002 World Series, Melky Cabrera scoring the winning run on a wild pitch in the 11th inning of the 2013 OLDS, and, of course, Kike Hernandez's dramatic, extra-innings, series-clinching, walk-off grand slam in the 2019 World Series.

When the montage ended, the center field door opened once again as dramatic music played over the sound system. One blue-and-orange-colored golf cart after another emerged from beyond the fence, each carrying Salem Cowtippers legends. As each former player was shown on the Jumbotron, the fans responded with thunderous applause: Maddux (the original Cowtipper), Mike Mussina, Lance Berkman, Magnante, Mark Teixeira, John Olerud, Erik Bedard, Derek Jeter, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Derek Lowe, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Zito...and last, but certainly not least, Hernandez himself. The legends filed into the ballpark, parked their golf carts along the warning track, and joined the crowd on stage.

Glander once again took his place before the microphone. "These players, these Salem Cowtippers legends, have created so many wonderful memories for me, and I'm sure for you as well. Those memories are with us all forever, no matter what. Nothing could ever erase them. They will live in our minds and hearts for as long as we do."

A cresting wave of murmurs began to grow among the crowd as the fans applauded apprehensively.

"You may be wondering why we held this event today," Glander said, as the stadium fell silent. "This is our way of thanking you, the fans, for all of those memories that you helped to create. I truly hope that you have enjoyed yourselves today. I know you enjoyed the free beer!"

The fans erupted in applause.

Glander glanced toward the security team that had silently formed around the stage. Several empty buses had surreptitiously flanked the stage area without anyone noticing. Glander nervously made eye contact with the former players surrounding him.

"So..." he said, "that's pretty much it. That's all I wanted to say. Thanks again for coming out. I hope you all had a great time. Enjoy the rest of your night, and please drive carefully."

The murmuring among the crowd reached a crescendo as the fans exchanged expressions of complete and utter confusion. Soft music began to play. Some of the nerdier fans among the crowd recognized the tune immediately: "The Rains of Castamere."

Glander hurriedly ushered the players onto the awaiting buses and waited for them to depart before turning back to the microphone. A black limo sat idling nearby, its passenger door open. Glander looked around nervously and then leaned into the microphone.

"Oh," he said, "by the way, we're moving the team to Florida. So long, Salem! It's been great!"

He sprinted toward the waiting limo and dove inside, head-first. The limo sped toward the center field door, leaving skid marks on the infield grass, before Glander's last words finished echoing throughout the ballpark. The stunned crowd stood with their jaws agape for a moment before chaos erupted. A group of fans leaped over the fence and onto the field. They were soon joined by thousands more. Fans tore apart the infield grass and dirt, collecting whatever they could as souvenirs. Some fans attempted to pry off the advertisements and banners from the outfield walls. One group of fans attempted to topple the statue of Kike Hernandez in center field.

Meanwhile, in the back seat of his limo, Glander addressed a handful of reporters, fielding their questions while pouring himself a series of whiskeys with shaking hands. "It was time," he said, somberly. "It was time to move on from Salem. The commute from Ocala to Salem for every home game was simply too exhausting. I did it for two and a half seasons, but enough is enough."

He took a big sip from his glass and watched as Sam Adams Stadium became smaller and smaller. "But also, it's time for a shake-up. Twenty-three seasons of failure in Salem, and one fluky win that required the most insane series of events imaginable in order for it to happen."

"What about the fans?" asked one reporter.

"They'll be fine," Glander said. "They still have the Patriots. And Celtics. And Bruins. And even the Red Sox. How many champions do they really need in one region?"

"What's the name of the new franchise?" one reporter asked.

"The Mulligans," said Glander. "The Florida Mulligans."

Playoffs Diary #5: Postmortem

Welp. It's over. It seems like a colossal shame. Such a wasted opportunity. The ability to create a team such as the '22 Tippers, with two 50-homer bats, the best offense in the league, several capable starters, and what should have been the league's best bullpen, does not happen often. It was the "perfect storm." And we wasted it.

It is hardly the first time we wasted such a rare opportunity. In fact, in our franchise's history, it has happened more often than it hasn't. Still, it feels like a punch in the gut.

Why did we lose? Well, I have a few thoughts.

#1 Our Offense Took the Series Off

The Salem Cowtippers scored nearly 1,000 runs in 2022. We led the entire BDBL in runs scored, and finished among the top three in OBP, slugging, home runs, walks, OPS, and RC27. In other words, this was a great offense.

That great offense simply failed to show up in the OLCS. We posted a .637 OPS in those seven games. Our batting line of .212/.291/.346 is barely better than Mario Mendoza's career batting line of .215/.245/.262.

Rafael Devers (.120/.154/.240) went 3-for-25 with 13 strikeouts. Lorenzo Cain (.200/.200/.200) went 4-for-20. Our leadoff hitter, Brandon Crawford (.130/.200/.130) went 3-for-23 with just two walks. Those three players performed well enough during the regular season that they merit a spot on the MVP ballot. All three were completely useless during the OLCS.

There were several other head-scratching performances, including Lane Thomas, who went 1-for-5 against left-handed pitchers in this series. Folks, Lane Thomas hit .381/.500/.603 against lefties in MLB! His OLCS performance makes zero sense.

Likewise, Chad Pinder (0-for-6) and Andy Ibanez (1-for-4) were completely useless against lefties following an entire 160-game season in which they killed lefties.

Only three players on our roster posted an OPS above .800 in the OLCS: Ramon Laureano (2.625 in only 8 PA's), Mark Canha (1.017), and Brandon Belt (.892). Laureano looked like he would be the series MVP early on, as he hit three pinch hit home runs that put us ahead.

Akron's pitching is very, very, good. Don't get me wrong. But this offensive collapse is completely inexplicable. "Good pitching beats good hitting," I know, but if that were always true, then Akron wouldn't have lost a single game in 2022.

#2 Our Bullpen Failed Miserably

Along with the best offense in the league, we were supposed to also have the best bullpen in the BDBL this season. We were the only team in the league to carry six pitchers with 40+ innings and a sub-600 OPS in our bullpen. We later added a seventh with the addition of Aaron Bummer.

We enjoyed an embarrassing wealth of elite bullpen arms and yet our bullpen proved to be our downfall in the OLCS. Luis A. Garcia has been a guaranteed lock all season against right-handed batters. He allowed a batting line of .152/.190/.177 against righties in MLB, and a line of .180/.242/.234 during the regular season. In the OLCS, we had no choice but to use him only twice against left-handed batters. Both batters got a hit -- one of them a triple. In all, Garcia allowed six batters to reach base in four innings and five of them scored.

Dominic Leone posted a miniscule 1.51 ERA in MLB '21, with a sub-.600 OPS allowed against both lefties and righties. In the OLCS, he coughed up three hits and two walks in just 2.2 innings, with an ERA of 6.75.

Jake McGee (8.10 ERA in 3.1 IP), Joe Kelly (4.91 ERA in 3.2 IP), and Ryan Tepera (4.50 ERA in 4 IP) all completely imploded during the OLCS after a season of consistent excellence. David Bednar, arguably our best reliever during the regular season, allowed more hits than innings, and walked four batters in only five innings.

The best offense in the BDBL completely collapsed in the OLCS, and the best bullpen in the BDBL also collapsed during the same series. What an incredible coincidence!

#3 We Lost Two Winnable Games

You can't blow a six-run lead in any playoff game and expect to win the series. Each and every game is absolutely crucial. What truly annoys the piss out of me about Game Two is that we didn't blow that lead because I took it for granted, or because I got caught off-guard, or because I used my "B" team to hold that lead.

No, I kept Lance Lynn on the mound because: a) he was throwing a no-hitter to that point in the sixth inning, and b) he had thrown fewer than 80 pitches. There was no reason whatsoever to believe that he would completely collapse -- and do it so quickly that there was no time to warm up a reliever.

After allowing not a single hit through five innings, Lynn faced seven batters in the sixth. He allowed five of them to reach base -- four on hits. After leading off the seventh by giving up a hit to the amemic-hitting Dansby Swanson, I decided to pull Lynn from the game with only 87 pitches under his belt. I thought that was the "safe" move. I was wrong.

Edmundo Sosa has "Fr" power against right-handed pitchers. There was no reason for me to believe that he would take one of the game's best right-handed pitchers, Ryan Tepera, yard. Yet, that's what happened. With that, our six-run lead completely evaporated.

Despite blowing that lead, we still had a chance to win the game. Joe Kelly -- our best and most consistent reliever all season -- simply needed to record one more out in the tenth inning. We would then have the top of our lineup come to bat in the top of the eleventh. Instead, Kelly allowed a single to Sosa, and then a single to the .189-hitting Manny Pina.

DMB can be an incredibly stupid game sometimes.

We lost another winnable game in Game Four when Joe Kelly -- yet again -- recorded two quick outs in relief, but then struggled to get the third. Victor Reyes isn't particularly awesome. He hit .229/.253/.375 against right-handers in MLB, and .286/.315/.436 in the regular season. There's no good reason why Joe Kelly should have struggled against him, and yet Reyes somehow tripled with two outs. He then scored on a clutch single by Wilmer Flores (.248/.334/.436 vs. RH in MLB.)

#4 Akron's Weakest Hitters Flourished

Akron vastly out-hit us in this series. Their .234/.328/.391 batting line doesn't look all that impressive until you compare it with ours. They managed this feat despite the fact that Ronald Acuna hit just .130/.286/.304, Austin Riley hit just .214/.267/.250, and Jesse Winker hit just .200/.333/.400. If you had told me prior to this series that those three players would perform so horrendously, I would have gladly assumed that we swept the series.

Instead, the Akron offense was carried by the likes of:

• Victor Reyes: 5-for-10 (.500/.583/1.000), with a triple, a homer, 4 runs scored, and a team-leading 5 RBI's.
• Manny ".189" Pina: 3-for-6 (.500/.667/.667) with a game-winning walk-off single.
• Francisco Mejia: 6-for-19 (.316/.409/.526) with two doubles and a triple.

Folks, I hate to say it, but those three guys all suck monkey balls. Seriously. All three posted an OPS below .740 in MLB. Pina (.854) and Reyes (.861) were great against lefties, but here's the thing: all of their success in this series came off of right-handed pitching!

A Perfect Storm of Coincidences

In order for the Akron Ryche to have won this series, they needed:

1. The best offense in the BDBL to completely collapse.

2. The best bullpen in the BDBL to completely collapse.

3. The timeliest of timely hitting.

4. Insane performances from some of the weakest hitters in baseball.

They got all four. They're now heading to the World Series.

For the Cowtippers, just add this to the miles-long list of disappointments in our franchise's history. As always, we will put it in the rearview and forge ahead toward the next great disappointment.

Playoffs Diary #4: Best-of-Three

This could very well be my final playoffs diary entry for this year. We lost two winnable games last night, setting us up for a best-of-three the rest of the way, with two of those three scheduled to take place in Akron. We have usage issues. We have bullpen issues. In other words, it will be an uphill battle over the next two or three games.

Our bullpen, which has been our greatest asset this season, has completely failed us in this series. We blew a six-run lead in the sixth inning of Game Two, and then ruined a comeback win in Game Four. Our offense has been almost entirely missing in action. Trea Turner, the OLDS MVP who saved our season for us, has gone a miserable 2-for-15 with 9 strikeouts and no walks.

The hero of this series has been Ramon Laureano, of all people. He has stepped to the plate five times, and has hit three solo homers. Rafael Devers (3-for-13, but with a big three-run homer in Game Two) has been mostly a non-factor. Lorenzo Cain (3-for-14) has been mostly absent. Our leadoff hitter, Brandon Crawford, has gone just 2-for-13 with two walks. Laureano has scored three times as many runs as Crawford in less than one-third as many at-bats.

Where do we go from here?

I have a big decision to make in Game Five. Do I go with Lance Lynn (87 pitches in his last outing) on short rest? Do I roll the dice with Luis H. Garcia? I honestly don't know what to do. If I go with Lynn, he would likely be effective for only five or six innings. The problem is that Bednar threw 19 pitches in Game Four, and Kelly threw 15. They're both available, but probably not for more than 10-12 pitches each. If I go with Garcia, I'm really putting a lot of faith in his MLB numbers as opposed to his BDBL performance.

The thought of allowing Garcia to pitch to Jesse Winker terrifies me. However, if we go with him in Game Five, then we could start Lynn on full rest in Game Six. If we go with Lynn, then we'd have to use yet another starter -- Jon Gray -- on short rest in Game Six. He only threw 72 pitches in his Game Three start, but do we really want to risk that?

As much as I hate to do it, I think the smart move here is to go with Garcia, and keep him on a short leash. In the worst-case scenario, we could use Lynn in long relief, and then start Gray on short rest in Game Six. That is our nightmare scenario.

Another unfortunate issue we will need to deal with is our remaining usage. Here's what remains:

Austin Nola: 2 games
Zack Collins: 1 game
Brandon Belt: maybe -- maybe -- 3 games
Lorenzo Cain: maybe 2 games

We could move Belt down in the lineup to save some AB's, but he's one of the only players hitting for us right now. He has 14 PA's remaining. At 5 PA's per game, we're right up against that cap in Game Seven. Let's worry about that then.

We'll need to start Nola against a righty, which isn't the end of the world. We can replace Cain with Benintendi in Game Five or Six, and save Cain for Ohtani's start in Game Seven (if it happens.)

This isn't good, folks. We are in a position where we have to trust Luis H. Garcia to keep us in the game tonight, and hopefully pitch at least six innings, so we can give our bullpen a much-needed rest. Yikes.

Playoffs Diary #3: On To Akron

Our four-game sweep of the Bear Country Jamboree was pleasantly unexpected. Pleasant surprises have not happened often in Salem Cowtippers history. I will say this about that series: we would have lost if it hadn't been for one man: Trea Turner. Of all people, the guy who was such a disappointment all season saved our asses. Every home run he hit came in a clutch situation. Most of them put us in the lead.

We can't count on Trea Turner saving our asses in every game, so we need to do whatever we can to gain an advantage against the toughest team in the BDBL in this next series. The Akron Ryche owned us this season. They went 8-3 on the year, including a four-game sweep in our final series of the regular season.

First things first, we need to figure out who we're throwing against them. The decision to use Ohtani on short rest in the OLDS worked out well, so we should stick with that formula. Lance Lynn is our de facto number two (as there is literally no one else who could possibly fit that role.) Jon Gray is the only other reliable starter we have, so he will get a turn.

Ronald Acuna (1.224 OPS) and Darren Ruf (1.196) both CRUSH left-handers. Against righties, we have to deal with my least-favorite player in the BDBL, Jesse Winker (.987) and Josh Bell (.937). It seems wise to start only right-handers against this team, which means we would need to start Luis H. Garcia. He fared well against Akron in three games this year, so that seems like a good bet.

Our rotation, then, looks like this:

Game 1: Ohtani
Game 2: Lynn
Game 3: Gray
Game 4: Ohtani
Game 5: Garcia
Game 6: Lynn
Game 7: Ohtani

I feel comfortable with that.

Here is the lineup Akron used against Max Scherzer in the OLDS. I have to assume this is what we'll see against our righties:

1. Acuna: .258/.376/.540
2. *Winker: .320/.406/.581
3. Riley: .296/.365/.543
4. #Bell: .294/.364/.573
5. Swanson: .225/.302/.401
6. Bader: .297/.349/.488
7. #Mejia: .260/.333/.462
8. Sosa: .350/.399/.529

Note: D.J. Shepard switched Manny Pina (.561) for Mejia against Walker Buehler for some reason.

Other than Swanson, there isn't an easy out in that lineup. There is no clear way to pitch around any of them, with the exception of Mejia (which would only lead to Sosa stepping in with a man of base.) This is a nightmare of a lineup.

I would like to get Winker out of the lineup as quickly as possible. I cannot stand the guy. He's a giant pain in the ass. If we yank our starter in the fifth inning and bring in a lefty, it's possible Shepard could pinch hit for Winker, and we wouldn't have to deal with him in the late innings. Of course, if we do bring in a lefty, the most likely pinch hitter would be Darin Ruf (.328/.495/.701 vs. LH), so pick your poison.

Ideally, the preferred move would be to bring in a decoy lefty, intentionally walk Ruf, and then bring in a righty to face the heart of the lineup with a man on first. But that is a very risky, low-upside, type of move that we could only use if we have a comfortable lead -- and what are the odds of that?

Akron's two best relievers (Josh Hader and Tim Mayza) are both lefties. Fortunately, given that Akron will be starting nothing but righties against us, we'll have a bounty of lefty-mashers on our bench: Lane Thomas, Andy Ibanez, Ramon Laureano, Chad Pinder, Yadiel Hernandez. None of Akron's other relievers are particularly scary.

Defensively, Mejia is extremely easy to run on. Opposing base stealers enjoyed a success rate of 84% against him this year. None of Akron's outfielders have strong arms, so we can probably let our guys take the extra base, too. Anything to gain an advantage in this series.

I have to say, I don't feel good about this one. There isn't much, from a managerial standpoint, that I can do except hit "1-1" and hope for the best.

Playoffs Diary #2: Scouting the Jamboree

Surprise! After all of the thought I put into my last diary entry, I have to start all over again, because Matt Clemm just can't help but wait until the very last possible second before a deadline to play his games.

AAAAAAAAARGH!

Not all of that work went to waste. Everything else I wrote still applies, except for the starting rotation I had set up against Ravenswood. We simply need to figure out who to start in Game Four. Not a big deal.

The Jamboree are a complicated opponent. The record says that they hit right-handers slightly better (.749 OPS) than lefties (.738). But if you look at their lineups, Paul Goldschmidt (1.025) and Jonathan Schoop (1.035) pound lefties to a bloody pulp. Against righties, they have no real full-time threat, although J.D. Davis (.988) is a short-usage weapon.

So, are we better off pitching a righty or lefty against them?

During the regular season, we threw Framber Valdez against Bear Country twice, and he didn't pitch poorly at all. Steven Matz got one start against the Jamboree, and was pounded, but that's only one start. Another lefty, Ranger Suarez, tossed five shutout innings against them.

On the other hand, we let Luis H. Garcia -- a righty-only specialist -- pitch two games against the Jamboree, and he didn't do badly, either.

Let's take a look at their best-possible lineup against lefties:

1. Jonathan Schoop, 2B: 1035/649
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: 1025/855
3. *Jeff McNeill, 3B: 717/705
4. J.D. Martinez, RF: 765/753
5. Tim Anderson, SS: 766/824
6. Yadi Molina, C: 1277/676
7. Derek Hill, CF: 690/1178
8. Phil Gosselin, LF: 677/725

Once you get past the first two batters in the lineup, it's a cake walk. (Molina's numbers are a bit warped, but he's still dangerous.)

Against righties:

1. Myles Straw, CF: 625/803
2. J.D. Davis, 3B: 644/988
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: 1025/855
4. Tim Anderson, SS: 766/824
5. *LaMonte Wade, LF: 209/816
6. J.D. Martinez, RF: 765/753
7. WJ Contreras, C: 539/848
8. #William Difo, 2B: 422/775

This is a much more difficult lineup to navigate. There isn't an easy out. The drastic splits on some of these guys (Straw, Davis, Wade, Contreras, Difo) would make it easy to employ the ol' cover pitcher strategy, but that would be over-thinking it. The best bet, I think, is to start a lefty in Game Four. Call me crazy, but that lefty just may be Framber Valdez.

On the other side of the ball, there isn't much to think about. Matt started his one and only lefty, John Means, against us twice this year. There is no way he would do so in the postseason. We will undoubtedly see Frankie Montas, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb, and Luis Castillo -- and probably in that order. If I see Means on his OLDS roster, however, that changes everything.

In the Bear Country bullpen, their two main lefties are Aroldis Chapman and Alex Vesia. I'm more afraid of Craig Kimbrel than either of them. This other person named Kyle McGowan (no idea who he is) has dominated with a 1.09 ERA this year, but is limited to just two innings. I would be very surprised if he's on the roster.

A few more random observations worth noting:

• Vesia, Chapman, Cease, and Melancon all give up tons of walks. When pinch hitting against any of these guys, it might pay to use a high-OBP guy over a power guy.
• Chapman and Vesia are also extremely homer-prone, so maybe scratch that for those two.
• Straw runs a lot, but also gets caught a lot. Anderson is the one to watch out for on the bases.
• Run all day long on Logan Webb.
• Do NOT run on Straw. 15 assists? Seriously?

Sadly, that is all the time I have this year for scouting. I guess this will have to do for now. Fingers crossed and all.

Playoffs Diary #1: Scouting the 'Tippers

Scouting has always been part of my pre-playoffs routine. More often than not, it makes no difference whatsoever, as the Baseball Gods' random dice rolls don't give a crap about my scouting. Every once in a while, though, it does make a difference. When it comes to the Tournament of Randomness, I will take whatever small advantage I can get.

Before scouting my opponent, I find it useful to scout my own team. You wouldn't think that would be necessary after managing them for 160 games, but it is. This is the time to set aside my preconceived assumptions about my players and how they will perform based on their 2021 MLB numbers. Instead, I need to face reality and look solely at their BDBL performance this season.

Let's start with our starters. At a bare-minimum, I need my starting pitchers to give me six innings without imploding. In baseball, they call this a "quality start." Unfortunately, I have only two starting pitchers that managed to implode in less than half their starts. Surprisingly, my team leader in QS% was Lance Lynn (57%), followed by Shohei Ohtani (54%).

That's it, folks. We have only two reliable starters on this entire roster.

Luis H. Garcia (43%), Jon Gray (41%), and Steven Matz (40%) are the next three in line. The problem is that I cannot use Garcia in the postseason due to his drastic splits. He allowed a .988 OPS against lefties this year. Any savvy opponent would exploit the hell out of that. I hesitate to use Matz, because I used him mostly against sub-.500 opponents this year. I'm not sure that I trust him to face a playoffs-caliber team.

That leaves Jon Gray as our only viable option as a number three starter. The problem is we have no number four. Sadly, a three-man rotation isn't viable. Ohtani and Lynn have Vg durabilities, and Gray is an Av. There is no way we would be able to swing that.

This leaves us with two options. We could go with a traditional four-man rotation that includes Matz. Or, we could have Ranger Suarez make one start. If we go with Option #1, Matz would start one game, on the road, in a good pitcher's park. Suarez would become our long reliever, which is very handy to have. If we go with Option #2, we could keep Gregory Soto in our bullpen to make up for the loss of Suarez.

I ran several sims pitching Matz against the Ravenswood Infidels, and he pitched well enough to inspire some level of confidence. I have done this same exact exercise in the past, however, and found that it is a complete waste of time. A pitcher can pitch brilliantly in ten sims, but then choke when it counts. In the end, I'd rather have Suarez available in my bullpen, so we'll go with Matz as our Game Four starter.

There is one more option on the table. When Ohtani pitches for us, we get an extra hitter in our lineup. If we're facing a right-hander, that extra hitter would be Andrew Benintendi. If we're facing a left-hander, that extra hitter would be Lane Thomas. Benintendi has been very good against righties (.287/.351/.444), but Thomas has been an absolute BEAST (.371/.511/.614) against lefties.

The question is who Ravenswood will start against us in Game Three. They have used Alek Manoah and Michael Fulmer as their #3 and #4 starters against us all season. However, Manoah is limited to only eight innings in the playoffs, and Fulmer was traded. That leaves Hyun-Jin Ryu (a lefty) and Trevor Bauer (a righty) as the two most likely options.

Skiz has used Ryu only twice against us all season, and both were in relief. Would he use him in Game Three? If so, maybe holding Ohtani back until that game would be a wise choice. Do I roll the dice and start Lynn and Gray in the first two games? Or play it safe and start Ohtani and Gray?

That brings us to the bullpen. I'll need to assign a role to each of our relievers, based solely on their BDBL performance this year. Here goes:

• Joe Kelly: our de facto closer. The only "safe" option with low HR allowed and balanced splits. Also an extreme groundball pitcher, which is something to keep in mind with Devers at third. I may want to use a defensive sub if Kelly is on the hill to close in the ninth.
• Ranger Suarez: as noted above, he is our long reliever, and obviously tough on lefties. He, too, is an extreme groundball pitcher.
• Ryan Tepera: arguably our most effective and well-balanced reliever overall, but homer-prone. We can't use him when the score is tight and a power hitter is due to bat.
• Dominic Leone: another "safe" choice who doesn't allow many homers and has balanced splits.
• David Bednar: our reverse-split weapon, great when we need a strikeout.
• Aaron Bummer: lefty killer.
• Luis A. Garcia: righty killer.
• Jake McGee: ol' reliable, balanced splits, but can be a little homer-prone.

I feel good about this pitching staff. They haven't always inspired me with confidence, but it is what it is. The Random God of Dice Rolls will do whatever they will do regardless of how I feel about it.

Let's move on to the offense.

Lineup vs. LH:

1. Ramon Laureano, RF: .325/.432/.533

2. Trea Turner, 2B: .401/.464/.759

3. *Brandon Belt, 1B: .319/.425/.625

4. Mark Canha, CF: .282/.392/.597

5. *Shohei Ohtani, RF: .241/.319/.652

6. Chad Pinder, SS: .301/.360/.512

7. Andy Ibanez, 3B: .352/.368/.560 (for LAU)

8. Austin Nola, C: .368/.410/.500

Needless to say, this is a very strong lineup -- which makes me believe Skiz will not, in fact, start Ryu against us. The newsmaking headline here is that Rafael Devers, our 50-homer beast, would ride the pine. This is due to his abysmal .266/.326/.424 batting line against southpaws.

Lineup vs. RH:

1. *Brandon Crawford, SS: .315/.394/.545

2. *Rafael Devers, 3B: .261/.330/.619

3. Mark Canha, LF: .263/.393/.465

4. *Brandon Belt, 1B: .257/.365/.576

5. *Shohei Ohtani, RF: .217/.353/.485

6. Lorenzo Cain, CF: .300/.374/.535

7. *Zack Collins, C: .258/.405/.478

8. Trea Turner, 2B: .271/.305/.402

When Ohtani is pitching, Andrew Benintendi (.287/.351/.444) would be our extra hitter in the lineup.

I believe that lineup above will be the only one we use in this series, as I don't think Skiz will use Ryu against us. I know I wouldn't!

If that is the case, then we don't have many options on our bench against Ravenswood's predominantly right-handed bullpen. Benintendi (794) and Nola (767) are the only hitters from that group that posted a 700+ OPS against righties this year.

The playoffs roster is set. The lineups are set. The bullpen roles are set. The only lingering question is the order in which our starters will pitch. It all hinges on how confident I am in Skiz using Ryu as a starter in this series. If I see Ryu on his playoffs roster, then that tells me he could start in either Game Three or Four. If he starts him in Game Four, then it doesn't matter, anyway, since Matz is starting that game. I tend to believe that if Ryu does get a turn in the rotation, it would be in that game.

Next up: Scouting the Infidels.

Chapter Six Review

Chapter Six was a chapter of good news and bad news for the Salem Cowtippers.

The good news is that we finished with 100+ wins for the tenth time in franchise history. The bad news is that we barely managed this feat by clawing our way to victory in the final two games of the season.

The bad news is that we finished below .500 (13-15) on the chapter. The good news is that it didn't matter, since we clinched the division long ago.

The bad news is that we lost our #1 seed in the playoffs. The good news is that home field advantage only comes into play if a series goes the distance.

It would have been nice to have outscored our opponents by 300 runs this season, but we missed that magical number by a lousy five runs. We were actually outscored in Chapter Five by that same figure. Only sixteen teams in history have managed to outscore their opponents by 300+.

Chapter Six was an unmitigated disaster all around. We posted a 4.50 team ERA, which ranks among the bottom half in the league. We allowed a whopping 38 home runs and walked more batters than all but two OL teams.

Offensively, we hit just .242/.322/.423 as a team, and scored just 4.6 runs per game. Contrast that performance with Chapter One, when we hit .269/.355/.491 as a team, and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game, and you can see just how far this team has fallen since then.

Our record over the six chapters shows an alarming trend:

Chapter One: 23-5 (.821)
Chapter Two: 19-9 (.679)
Chapter Three: 14-10 (.583)
Chapter Four: 15-9 (.625)
Chapter Five: 17-10 (.607)
Chapter Six: 13-15 (.464)

Basically, the only chapter where we improved on the previous chapter was Chapter Four. Since the all-star break, the Salem Cowtippers are just 45-35 (.563). The Akron Ryche (.724), Charlotte Mustangs (.667), Ravenswood Infidels (.658), Chicago Black Sox (.653), Kansas Law Dogs (.618), and Buckingham Sovereigns (.579) have all played better baseball in the second half than the Salem Cowtippers.

All of the above is the bad news. But...there is some good news about all of the above as well. I will cover this in more depth in the Playoffs Preview, but suffice it to say that the team that played in the second half of this season barely resembles the team that will be playing this coming November.

A few noteworthy performances to wrap up the 2022 regular season:

• Shohei Ohtani and Rafael Devers each hit 50 home runs, becoming only the second and third Cowtippers in franchise history to hit 50+ (joining Sammy Sosa, who hit 60 in 2002.)
• Ohtani also went 15-2 on the mound, with a 3.71 ERA in 143 innings, only 119 hits allowed, and 167 K's. He should get some serious consideration for the OL MVP award. If he doesn't win, it would be the dumbest vote in league history (which is truly saying a lot.)
• Ranger Suarez (14-2, 2.74 ERA in 115 IP) earned every dime of the money we spent on him last winter. He started six games for us, and was one of six relievers with three or more saves this year.
• Lance Lynn somehow managed to win 17 games despite sucking so much ass. We expected a Cy Young performance from him when we acquired him, but he was merely mid-rotation quality. He was one of several pitchers on our roster who mysteriously walked way more batters (3.0 BB/9) than he did in MLB (2.6) for no reason whatsoever. He also allowed 20% more homers than he did in MLB despite pitching in a much better pitcher's ballpark in the BDBL. And lefties absolutely crushed him (.285/.367/.500) for no logical reason whatsoever, given his MLB numbers (.227/.302/.375).
• We expected our bullpen to be record-setting, but it was merely fantastic. Dominic Leone (2.35 ERA in 57+ IP), Luis A. Garcia (2.38 in 34), David Bednar (2.47 in 65+), Ryan Tepera (2.56 in 66+), Joe Kelly (2.70 in 46+), Suarez (2.74 in 115), and Jake McGee (3.17 in 59+) all had their moments of instability, but overall lived up to their expectations.
• Trea Turner (.298/.339/.477) got off to a painfully slow start, but picked it up at the end. He wasn't quite the MVP candidate we expected him to be, but he came through with 30 doubles and 27 homers, scored 102 runs, and plated 113. He also swiped 25 bases for good measure.
• Lorenzo Cain (.294/.373/.532) was one of the pleasant surprises of this season. Likewise, our catching platoon of Zack Collins (.244/.393/.452) and Austin Nola (.329/.391/.447) performed much better than we expected.
• Mark Canha (.267/.393/.495) actually led our team in runs created (119.5), and whacked 28 homers. For a guy who was ridiculed during the auction, I'd say we got our $5.5 million worth from him.
• In addition to Ohtani, Devers, Turner, and Canha, we had two more batters hit 25 or more homers this year: Brandon Belt (29) and Brandon Crawford (25). Crawford (.306/.384/.523) looked like an MVP candidate at times this season. So did Belt (.270/.378/.586) for that matter.

Looking Ahead to '23

Now that the MLB regular season has ended, it is time to look forward to the 2023 BDBL season. What does the future hold in store for the Salem Cowtippers? Well, folks, I have seen the future, and it is bleak. Very, very, bleak.

We'll start with the good news. Trust me, this won't take long.

THE GOOD NEWS

Shohei Ohtani should be a Cy Young type of pitcher in 2023, given his '22 MLB performance: 166 IP, 124 H, 14 HR, 44 BB, 219 K, 636/518 splits. He will also likely be the BDBL's best designated hitter. (Yes, it pains me to even type those words.) He hit .278/.370/.551 against right-handers, but was rather ordinary (.263/.329/.459) against lefties.

The same is true of Rafael Devers, who crushed righties (.304/.374/.557), but appears to have lost the ability to hit southpaws (.272/.315/.424) in recent years. As he ages, he's becoming more and more of a platoon player. Not good.

Adley Rutschman will finally (FINALLY!!!!) make his full-time BDBL debut in 2023. (Although it won't be his rookie debut, since we used him in 2021, thanks to the projection disk.) Like Ohtani and Devers, Rutschman crushes righties (.280/.386/.503), but struggles so badly against lefties (.173/.287/.265) that he'll be platooned with Garrett Stubbs (.333/.429/.750 vs. LH.)

Trea Turner (.298/.343/.466) and Andrew Benintendi (.304/.373/.399) also had decent seasons at the plate, and have well-balanced splits.

Our starting rotation looks very strong. In addition to Ohtani, we have Framber Valdez (201-166-11-67-194, 505/621), who would be the ace of most pitching staffs. Ranger Suarez (155 IP, 538/757 splits), Luis H. Garcia (157 IP, 723/623), and Jon Gray (127 IP, 731/602) are all decent mid-rotation arms. Lance Lynn (122 IP, 719/681) didn't pitch much (especially at his salary), but will be useful for half a season. Late pickup J.P. Sears (70 IP, 684/723) is another useful part-timer.

THE BAD NEWS

We currently have no first baseman, no second baseman, and no right fielder for 2023. We also have no bullpen aside from David Bednar (52 IP, 545/670 splits) and Kyle Nelson (37, 528/629). Those are way too many important holes to fill this late in the game, and I honestly don't know how on earth we'll fill them, because...

THE WORST NEWS

We have no money!

Check that: we have less than no money. We are $4 million in the hole, actually. That figure is only possible because we plan to release Gregory Soto, Dominic Leone, Jake McGee, Ryan Tepera, and Ramon Laureano. Those five players will cost us $4.9 million to release. Add J.B. Wendelken's cut (which is already on the books) and the grand sum of release penalties will be $6 million.

We are forced to carry the dead carcasses of Brandon Belt ($5.5M), Brandon Crawford ($1.1M), Nick Senzel ($2.1M), and Steven Matz ($6M) due to their contract lengths. That's $14.7 million in salary paid to four players who won't play a single day for Salem in 2023. They won't even be on the bench. They're all that bad. They'll also take up valuable space on our 35-man roster, prohibiting us from filling those spots with players that are actually useful in some way.

Add it all up, and we're paying $20.7 million -- one-third of our total team payroll -- to players who won't add any benefit at all to the 2023 Cowtippers. We're also paying Lynn $7.5 million for half a season. We're also paying Mark Canha $5.5 million to be a thoroughly-mediocre outfielder.

SUMMING IT UP

To sum it all up, we have no bullpen next year, no first baseman, no right fielder, no second baseman, and we're $4 million in the hole. We not only have no money to spend to fill those huge gaping holes, but we'll be forced to trade a very good player just to free some salary. In other words, Salem fans: we're fucked.

Enjoy whatever is left of 2022's success. We may not see it again for quite some time.

Chapter Five Review

It's official! Your Salem Cowtippers have captured our eleventh division title! We have four more to go before we catch the Los Altos Undertakers' record, but we're getting there! This day has been all-but-certain for months now, but it still feels good to get it out of the way. We clinched the division with our second win against the Lake Norman Monsters -- a 12-4 laugher in which we scored seven runs in one inning. Rafael Devers was an absolute monster the entire series. He went 4-for-4 in that game with three homers and six ribbies. It was a nice moment of celebration at our home in Salem.

We had a rather pedestrian 17-11 chapter, in which we lost five games to the sub-.500 Flagstaff Peaks, Darien Blue Wave, North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, and Lake Norman Monsters. We also won six blowout games by scores of 11-2, 15-9, 12-1, 16-5, 17-1, and 12-4. It's tough to find a more inconsistent team outside of the Bronx.

We scored a crazy amount of runs (182, an average of 6.5 per game) again this past chapter, but our pitching completely fell apart once again. Luis H. Garcia (8.58 ERA in 28+ IP) would have pitched himself off the postseason roster in a sane world, but we will likely end up keeping him around. Framber Valdez (5.76 ERA) went a well-deserved 0-3 this chapter. The OL Pitcher of the Chapter last chapter, Shohei Ohtani, posted a 6.26 ERA in four starts, and allowed six longballs in those four games.

I don't know what to do with this pitching staff as we move into November. I can't count on anyone, it seems. Every member of our bullpen has taken turns being horrendous and brilliant. We never know what we'll get from any of them. Ohtani, up until this chapter, had been our one and only reliable starting pitcher. Now we have no idea who he is.

On the year, we're sitting at 88-44 (.667), which is just barely better than Charlotte (77-39, .664) in the race for that number one playoffs seed. We've outscored our opponents by an even 300 runs, which should put us far ahead of the pack, but we own the worst Pythagorean difference (-6) in the BDBL.

Now we sit back and try not to overuse any of our guys the rest of the way. That is my one and only goal in Chapter Six. We have enough 2023 expenses as it is. We don't need any more.

Midseason Pick-ups

We made one last deal before the final trading deadline, adding Aaron Bummer to our pitching staff at the cost of Thomas White and Luis Gonzalez. In our championship year of 2019, we had one absolutely dominant shut-down closer against lefties (Oliver Perez) and one dominant shut-down closer against right-handers (Ryan Brasier.) We are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle a second time using that same formula. Bummer kills lefties, and Luis A. Garcia stifles righties.

Of course, we already have a pitcher who dominates left-handed hitters in Ranger Suarez. In fact, he's better against lefties than anyone else in the game. The problem is that we only have one reliable starting pitcher in this postseason: Shohei Ohtani. On paper, we should have at least two, but Lance Lynn has pitched like dog shit for most of this year.

That leaves Jon Gray, Framber Valdez, and Luis H. Garcia to fill two more spots in our playoffs rotation. The word "blech" doesn't quite do enough justice there. If we use Suarez as a starter, then he is automatically limited to just eight innings in the entire series. If we use him as a reliever, his usage is unlimited. As much as we'd love to use him as a reliever, I don't think we have a choice.

Shohei becomes our Game One starter -- and possibly Game Four and Game Seven as well. Lynn becomes our Game Two and Game Five starter by default. If Suarez starts Game Three, then we only have Game Six to worry about. There are no great options for us, but as of now, this is what I am thinking will happen.

MIDSEASON DRAFT

There were four guys I would have been excited to get in this midseason draft. In order:

1. Jackson Chourio

2. Ezequiel Tovar

3. Jackson Holliday

4. Ethan Salas

After those four, all of the other 90 or so names on my list were a toss-up. The one guy we absolutely needed for the playoffs was Andy Ibanez. He is the perfect fit for our ballclub. He plays four different positions and clobbers lefties to the tune of .344/.371/.527. When Shohei is on the mound, Andy will slot into that extra hitting spot much better than Andrew Benintendi or any other option we have.

Two chapters ago, I nearly reached out to Jeff Paulson to ask for Ibanez in trade. Then I noticed that his usage was almost depleted. I had a hunch Jeff would release him because of that, and sure enough, he did! That made Ibanez a free pickup! Thanks, Jeff!

With the dead-last 24th pick in the draft, I did not expect to get any of those four names above. Yet, when our first pick came up, Salas was still on the board! The funny part is: we didn't pick him. By the time that first pick came around, I decided there was another, better, option: Chase Dollander, who is arguably the best pitcher in college baseball. And to my utter shock and gratitude to the league, Salas was still available in round two!

Dollander instantly becomes our best pitching prospect. The last two people to hold that title -- Asa Lacy and Spencer Howard -- did not exactly work out as we hoped. We're hoping Dollander breaks that streak.

I passed on Salas in the first round solely because we already have two roster spots filled by high-risk/high-reward Latin American lottery tickets (Felnin Celesten and Ricardo Cabrera), and our track record with those guys is mostly abysmal. That said, when we have won that lottery (Rafael Devers and Wander Franco), we hit big! Celesten is considered to have the highest ceiling in the 2023 international class. Salas is considered to be the safest pick in that class, with a long history of excelling against older competition. We'll cross our fingers with both and hope we catch lightning in a bottle a third time.

With our fourth pick, we selected J.P. Sears, who has been dominating Triple-A for two years. In each of those years, he has walked fewer than 2 batters per nine, and has struck out more than 10. The Yankees gave him two spot starts this season, and he didn't allow a run in either game. They then sent him packing to Oakland as part of the Frankie Montas/Lou Trivino deal. He is expected to join their rotation immediately, so we could get two months of starting pitching usage out of him before this MLB season is over.

Our next two picks were Wyatt Langford and Enrique Bradfield. Both are projected to be taken in the first ten picks of the 2023 MLB draft, but that is where their similiarities end. Langford is a classic slugger. He smashed 26 home runs this past season, and hit .356/.447/.719 overall. He also owned a decent 36/44 BB/K ratio. A product of the University of Florida, I may even see him a few times in person next year, which will be nice.

Bradfield is a burner. He's an easy "80" for speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. If you've ever seen video of him, you'd agree that even a non-scout could notice that he is something special on the basepaths and in the field. He has no power worth mentioning, but gets on base at a high clip (.415 this past year, and .451 as a freshman.) He evokes comparisons to Kenny Lofton, which would be nice to have on the Cowtippers.

Our final pick was merely a seat-warmer: Stephen Vogt. We'll need him to avoid usage penalties down the stretch -- which will be our greatest challenge over that time.

Chapter Four in Review

We finished with a respectable-enough 15-9 record in Chapter Four, but there were several things about this past chapter that have left a sour taste in my mouth. I'll get to that in a minute. First, let's talk about all the good things that happened.

We outscored our opponents by 72 runs last chapter, which is exceptional, but also entirely due to the fact that we averaged -- get this -- nearly EIGHT RUNS per game last chapter! We scored 191 runs in 24 games, which averages to 7.96. We scored double-digit runs in nine of our twenty-four games, and won by scores like 11-3, 11-2, 13-7, 13-2, 11-3, 16-5, and 14-4.

Every hitter on our roster contributed something useful last chapter. Our worst hitter last chapter, Ramon Laureano, posted a useful .368 OBP, and came through with several clutch hits. Shohei Ohtani smashed 13 home runs. Mark Canha hit .306/.410/.582. Rafael Devers posted an .866 OPS. Andrew Benintendi posted a .420 on-base percentage. On and on it goes.

But the one player whose Chapter Four performance simply blows me away is Trea Turner. After doing virtually nothing in the first half, and causing me to wonder if I should trade for a second baseman who can actually play baseball, Turner turned his season around in a huge way this past chapter, hitting .393/.416/.636, with 11 doubles, 5 homers, a team-leading 28 RBI's, and a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts.

If we're going to win another championship trophy, we are going to need Trea Turner to be Trea F'ing Turner. Period.

As you may imagine, if we scored SO many runs in Chapter Four, but outscored our opponents by "only" 72, something very disturbing must have happened to our pitching staff. You would be correct. The truly disturbing part about Chapter Four, for me, was not the performance of our starting pitchers (who I've grown to assume will fail), but with our formerly vaunted and world-famous bullpen. That bullpen was supposed to carry us to the trophy. Instead, I'm rapidly losing confidence in each and every member of that bullpen.

Ryan Tepera continues to allow home runs at an inexplicable rate. He allowed two more in Chapter Four, giving him nine for the year. Folks, Ryan Tepera only allowed four homers in over ten more innings in MLB -- in a home ballpark much tougher for pitchers. Nothing about it makes sense.

Two games, in particular, stand out in Chapter Four as causing my faith in our bullpen to shake beyond repair. Both took place at the very end of the chapter. In a game against the lowly South Loop Furies, we were winning by a score of 3-1 heading into the seventh inning. After two quick outs, I handed the ball to Tepera to get the third -- against the bottom of the South Loop lineup, no less. He proceeded to allow two RBI singles and an RBI double to the next three batters in a row.

In our final game of the chapter, we led by a seemingly comfortable margin of 7-3 heading into the bottom of the seventh against the Blacksburg Beamers. I handed the ball to Ranger Suarez and Joe Kelly -- our best two relievers all season, and our most consistent. Suarez allowed THREE walks and a single before I could yank him out of there. Then Kelly proceeded to do this:

Run-scoring error.
Two-run single.
RBI single
RBI fielder's choice.
Yet another error.
Sac fly.

SEVEN runs scored in that inning, and we lost the game.

Folks, bullshit like this cannot happen on a championship ballclub. I don't care how many runs we score. If our bullpen pitches like this, we will not win that trophy.

2023 Halfway Checkpoint

We are roughly 80 games into the 2022 MLB season, which means we've roughly reached the halfway point. Tony Chamra recently posted his 2023 team's halftime report, so I figured I'd be a copycat.

Catchers:

C: Adley Rutschman: 142 PA, .215/.282/.392, 476/734 splits
C: Zack Collins: 74 PA, .209/.284/.448, 400/788
C: P.J. Higgins: 72 PA, .302/.380/.524, 725/988
C: Austin Nola: 213 PA, .237/.305/.306, 602/618
C: Garrett Stubbs: 57 PA, .280/.357/.560, 1462/761

The good news is that the Rutschman Era has finally arrived! The bad news is that he's off to a very rough start. We picked up a couple of short-usage superstars off the free agent scrap heap last chapter, but they don't get much playing time. Neither does Collins, surprisingly enough. That leaves Nola, who has defied all of the preseason forecasts calling him a "sleeper candidate" at the catching position. He's been asleep, all right. Barely lucid, in fact.

Infield:

1B: Brandon Belt: 170 PA, .211/.335/.352, 626/703
3B: Rafael Devers: 347 PA, .327/.383/.579, 895/986
3B: Jason Vosler: 64 PA, .268/.344/.518, 900/857
SS: Trea Turner: 349 PA, .311/.359/.491, 826/859
SS: Brandon Crawford: 243 PA, .224/.313/.350, 703/650

Devers may have a career year if he can keep this pace. Turner is great, as always. Of course, the question with both of them is: will they actually perform in the BDBL as they have in MLB? For the past two years, that answer has been a resounding NO. Belt and Crawford are looking like two very expensive and rapidly-aging bench players at this point. Stupid boring Giants.

Outfield:

OF: Andrew Benintendi: 326 PA, .314/.380/.400, 655/837
OF: Mark Canha: 259 PA, .267/.359/.373, 658/775
OF: Ramon Laureano: 206 PA, .246/.330/.393, 916/646
OF: Lane Thomas: 250 PA, .225/.284/.388, 676/669

Benny seems to finally look like the "breakout" player people have predicted he would be for about 15 years now. Just in time for free agency. What a coincidence! Canha's 26-homer season a few years ago has been confirmed as a definite anomaly. Laureano will evidently never have that one big superstar season I thought he would have when I signed him three years ago. And Thomas -- yet another one everyone projected as a "fantasy sleeper" in 2022, has done absolutely nothing to justify that title.

DH: (Side note: BOOOO!)

DH: Shohei Ohtani: 334 PA, .262/.344/.503, 689/933

If we are being forced by Rob Manfred to have a stupid boring-ass DH, at least we're stuck with Ohtani.

Starting rotation:

SP: Shohei Ohtani: 74 IP, 58 H, 8 HR, 17 BB, 101 K, 2.68 ERA, 614/578 splits
SP: Luis H. Garcia: 76-60-13-21-80, 3.54, 711/619
SP: Framber Valdez: 101-76-6-38-93, 2.67, 532/591
SP: Jon Gray: 77-64-8-26-83, 3.96, 653/641
SP: Ranger Suarez: 79-82-9-33-64, 4.33, 623/797
SP: Lance Lynn: 22-23-3-5-22, 4.50, 853/599

Welp, whatever magic fairy dust Ranger Suarez ingested in 2021 has worn off. He looks like a very expensive #5 starter at this point. It seems that all of our expensive auction buys last winter were one-use-only disposables. Lynn is another expensive turd, but he hasn't even earned his keep this season; never mind next. Valdez and Ohtani will be a very nice left/right combo if they can keep it up in the second half.

Bullpen:

RP: David Bednar: 37-25-3-12-50, 2.43, 558/582
RP: Dominic Leone: 29-31-4-9-32, 2.45, 1236/517
RP: Trevor Megill: 13-9-1-5-15, 2.08, 623/468
RP: Kyle Nelson: 25-20-0-7-20, 1.78, 556/621
RP: Gregory Soto: 29-19-1-14-30, 2.48, 699/554
RP: Gabe Speier: 19-16-2-5-14, 2.33, 676/597
RP: Ryan Tepera: 32-23-4-11-26, 4.18, 714/525

This is fine, as far as it goes. The sample sizes are all so small, anything can happen from this point forward, so it isn't worth celebrating or fretting. I would love to own one of the top, say, 50 best relief pitchers in this incredible 2022 MLB season dominated by stellar relief pitchers, but alas, they were all snatched up by other teams long ago.

Overall:

Offensively, it could be better, and it could be worse. If -- big IF -- Turner and Devers hit the way they're supposed to hit, then we could have a decent offense with those two, plus Ohtani, in the heart of the lineup. Benintendi gives us a quality fourth bat, which means we have a decent half-lineup if this trend continues.

On the pitching side, I'm excited about Ohtani and Valdez so far, but little else. Our bullpen arms haven't developed as I had hoped. Lynn's injury, plus Suarez's mediocrity, put a huge dent in our wallet that will be tough to buff out.

As it stands, we're looking at paying $31.8 million -- roughly half our total team salary -- on players that will do little and/or nothing next year. That is a very tough mountain to climb. Hopefully, this team really picks up the pace in the second half or we're looking at a surefire rebuilding year.

Singing the No-Trade-Bait Blues

It is a very odd place to be when your team is winning 70% of its games and you don't own a single player on your roster (aside from the players you are currently using to win 70% of your games) who has any trade value whatsoever in the eyes of your peers.

Like, none. Zero. Zilch.

We are only using 26 of our 35 players on the active roster, which means we have nine who are being stored on our roster for the sole purpose of future usefulness. They aren't useful at all this season, but many of them are having decent-enough 2022 MLB seasons to warrant a spot on our roster. Of those nine, all nine have been deemed completely useless by the other teams in our league.

We also have a whopping 15 farm players. Of those, we'd like to hold on to just four of them. That leaves eleven others. But again, all eleven -- eleven-for-eleven! -- have been deemed completely useless wastes of roster space by our colleagues in the BDBL.

In total, then, we have no fewer than TWENTY players on our 50-man roster -- 40-percent! -- who we should release tomorrow, because they are apparently without any value whatsoever. The best team in the BDBL, at the moment, has a roster where two-thirds of its members are completely worthless.

Amazing.

Earlier this year, we offered two recent first-round picks -- Asa Lacy (#4 overall in 2020) and Sal Frelick (#15 in 2021) -- to South Loop's wonderfully-friendly and personable GM, Bart Chinn, in exchange for Bryan Reynolds. Chinn was so insulted by this offer, you'd think I took a shit on his carpet. He was still fuming over that offer weeks later, in fact, and publicly scolded me for making such an insulting offer.

This past chapter, we offered a number of players who were selected in the first round of the past two MLB drafts, as well as a number of young players with MLB experience and decent (so far) MLB '22 numbers, to two different teams. All we're looking for are niche role players: a right-handed hitter who can hit lefties, and a relief pitcher who can fill in some middle innings. Typically, these two types of role players are the least-expensive types of players to acquire.

Not this year.

The market for part-time right-handed platoon hitters and shitty middle relievers has never been hotter than it is right now. In order to fetch those players, I was asked by my most recent trade partner to consider dealing Brandon Crawford.

Folks...setting aside Shohei Ohtani's crazy Ruthian-like ability to both pitch and hit, Brandon Crawford would currently be not only our team MVP, but the Ozzie League MVP. He leads the league in batting average and slugging, and ranks #3 in the OL with a .397 OBP. Are you seriously fucking telling me that I'd need to trade the MVP of the Ozzie League to acquire...

...checking my notes...

...a platoon hitter and a middle reliever??

Fucking seriously??

Somewhat unrelated sidenote: Brandon Crawford is having an abysmal 2022 MLB season -- which is something I feared when I signed him to an extension. He was a late-career flash-in-the-pan, as I expected he would be. Why on earth would any team that is not competing this season want Brandon Crawford? Seriously.

I've scoured every roster in the BDBL. The remaining options for filling those very small and specific roles are slim and none -- especially given our WAR trade cap limit. In fact, in that last deal I offered, adding the two players I requested would have put me at 10.9 WAR for the season. You can't get any more perfect than that! It was so perfect, it seemed like fate!

But no.

So, instead, I've decided it's best to simply stick with the team we have. We've won 70% of our games with the roster we have, so why mess with it? Why sacrifice any part of our future -- even if no one else in the league sees any value in any of those twenty players?

What a thoroughly-ridiculous trading season it has been.

Chapter Three Review

The first half of the 2022 season is now officially in the books for the Salem Cowtippers. We finished Chapter Three with our weakest chapter yet -- a record of 14-10. We won three series -- all against Eck League teams: Cleveland, Charlotte, and Chicago. We did not sweep a single series this chapter, and we finally lost our first series of the season, to Akron.

That Akron series is notable for Game Three, which will go down in history for all the wrong reasons. Framber Valdez allowed ten earned runs before recording his third out. We then brought position player Abraham Almonte into the game, and he coughed up three more runs before that final out was mercifully recorded. That 13-run first inning likely stands as a league record. We ended up losing that game by an embarrassing score of 16-2.

That game perfectly highlights an issue that I can't help but notice about this 2022 team. We consistently beat up on bad teams and struggle against the good ones. We are 27-5 against the Darien Blue Wave, North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, Flagstaff Peaks, South Loop Furies, and Lake Norman Monsters. We are 14-14 against the Las Vegas Flamingos, Ravenswood Infidels, Akron Ryche, Bear Country Jamboree, and Blacksburg Beamers. In fact, we don't own a winning record against any of those five teams.

The lone exception is that we own a 4-0 record against the Los Altos Undertakers, who are a good team (although they probably won't make the playoffs.) There is an exception to every rule, I suppose. The lack of success we've had against good teams tells me we will struggle in the postseason regardless of how dominant we seem to be overall.

Overall, we look like a champion on paper. We own a .700 winning percentage, which puts us on pace for a 112-win season. We have outscored our opponents by 176 runs, which puts us on pace for a runs differential of 352. In the 23-year history of the BDBL, seven teams have reached those two figures:

2002 Allentown Ridgebacks: 113 wins, +433 

2010 Los Altos Undertakers: 113 wins, +378

2013 New Milford Blazers: 113 wins, +356

2015 Los Altos Undertakers: 116 wins, +404

2016 Los Altos Undertakers: 128 wins, +437

2017 New Milford Blazers: 120 wins, +413

2017 Los Altos Undertakers: 117 wins, +373

Of those seven teams, only four (the '02 Ridgebacks and the last three Undertakers teams) won the championship. If we expand the criteria a tiny bit, we can find four other teams that dominated almost equally:

2002 Salem Cowtippers: 112 wins, +344 

2012 New Milford Blazers: 111 wins, +324

2016 Kansas Law Dogs: 115 wins, +343

2018 Flagstaff Outlaws: 115 wins, +299

None of those four teams won the championship. In other words, merely winning a lot of games and outscoring your opponents by a shit-ton of runs during the regular season is no guarantee of ultimate success.

***

Our pitching, which was our greatest asset for the first two chapters, completely fell apart in Chapter Three. We posted a 4.06 ERA for the chapter, although if you remove that one game against Akron, it falls to 3.55. Unfortunately, we can't remove that Akron game, either from the record book or from our memory.

It seems as though every one of our pitchers was beaten up at some point this chapter. The normally-reliable righty-killer Luis A. Garcia was lit up by both Chicago and Akron. Luis H.Garcia was crushed by both Cleveland and Myrtle Beach, allowing 11 earned runs in only 9 innings. Jon Gray tossed a no-hitter against Cleveland, but was then toasted by Myrtle Beach for six earned runs in only three innings.

Steven Matz was brutalized by Cleveland for eight runs (six earned) in five innings, and was also lit up by Bear Country (6 ER in 6.1 IP.) Shohei Ohtani was brilliant against Charlotte and Myrtle Beach, but was absolutely pounded by Chicago (5 ER in 6 IP) and Bear Country (5 ER in 4.2 IP.) Then, of course, there was Valdez.

Overall, Chapter Three aside, we have to be very happy with the performance of our bullpen. Ranger Suarez (8-0, 1.72 ERA), David Bednar (2-0, 2.09), and Joe Kelly (3-0, 2.10) all deserve some consideration for the all-star team. Shohei Ohtani (8-0, 3.41) deserves consideration to start that game. Aside from Ohtani, the rest of the starting rotation is rather mediocre -- which is sort of what we expected. The only exception there is that we expected Lance Lynn to compete for a Cy Young award. Instead, he's gone a modest 9-4 with a 3.53 ERA.

***

On the offensive side, it is difficult to complain. We currently lead the league (by a lot) with 461 runs scored, which puts us on pace for 900+ for the season. Our .819 team OPS currently tops the entire BDBL. We rank among the top three in the BDBL in on-base percentage, home runs, triples, and walks. (Of course, all of that can change as teams continue to play this chapter.)

Brandon Crawford (.333/.397/.609, 17 HR, 53 R, 52 RBI) deserves some MVP votes if he can keep up this pace in the second half. Brandon Belt (.264/.363/.582, 19 HR) has been worth every penny we paid for him last winter, and I believe the best is still yet to come. Ohtani (.224/.360/.515, 23 HR, 54 RBI) has been a productive beast on both sides of the ball, deceptive batting average notwithstanding.

Rafael Devers (.243/.311/.514, 22 HR, 60 RBI) can't seem to get on base, but his power allows us to forgive him for it. We got a lot of flak for going "Type H" on Mark Canha, but man, has that guy produced! He's hitting .280/.403/.471 overall, and ranks #2 on our team in runs created (54.3), behind Crawford and ahead of Ohtani!

All of the above players deserve some consideration for the all-star team. If not for their low usage numbers, both of our catchers -- Austin Nola (.340/.414/.456) and Zack Collins (.261/.408/.478) -- would deserve consideration as well.

Of course, the one guy who has disappointed beyond belief is Trea Turner. He should be posting MVP numbers for us, just as he did in MLB last year, when he posted the top WAR in baseball. Instead, he's hitting a paltry .253/.311/.401. He can't get on base, he can't steal bases (just 9-for-14 in that category), and he isn't racking up the extra base hits we expected he would. His performance this season has been an absolute head-shaking mystery.

***

As mediocre as our Chapter Three performance was, we managed to end on a high note. When Jon Gray allowed seven straight batters to reach base in the third inning of our final game against Myrtle Beach, it appeared as though we were on the verge of another Valdez-like collapse that would have resulted in another embarrassing double-digit loss and the second series defeat of the chapter.

With the bases loaded and one out, Gray struck out the dangerous Dylan Carlson. He then whiffed the not-so-dangerous opposing pithcer, Zach Thompson, to wriggle out of the inning. "Only" three runs scored that inning. It could have been far worse.

Faced with a 6-1 deficit, I have watched this Cowtippers team roll over and die far too many times over the years. For a while, it appeared that this team would die, too, as they struggled to make contact against Thompson. But then Trea Turner -- of all people! -- made it a one-run game with his two-run single in the fifth inning.

Crawford then tied the game in the sixth, and pinch hitter Chad Pinder put us ahead in the seventh. Our offense came through in the clutch -- but so did our bullpen, who held the Hitmen scoreless after Gray left the game in the third inning.

Games like that one give me hope that maybe -- just maybe -- we'll be okay in the postseason. When our team performs the way they're supposed to, great things tend to happen.