Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2019 Free Agent Draft Post-mortem

The free agent auction and draft went nothing like we planned. Of course, this is the 21st year I have repeated that sentence. We went into the auction in a great position. We had a full pitching staff and a full offense with the exception of a right-hand-hitting first baseman to platoon with Mitch Moreland. We also had $28.3 million to spend on just seven roster spots. That gave us a tremendous amount of flexibility. As it turned out, we needed every bit of it.

$8 million of our $28.3 million budget was earmarked for two players well before the auction began. Because we had the number one pick in every round of the draft, we determined that we would make a third-round selection at $5 million no matter what else took place beforehand. We also identified Ramon Laureano as a "must-have" player as the first pick in the sixth round at $3 million. We had a temporary moment of panic when he was listed among the top-50 in VORP, but when he fell out of that top-50, we knew we could get him in that slot.

Plan A: Spend most of the remaining $20.3 million on one stud pitcher.

There were five stud pitchers in this year's auction: Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw. We ranked those five in that order. The original plan was to throw a $14 million bid at each of them, with the belief that at least one of those bids would stick. However, as D-Day drew closer we began to reevaluate those five. Given the ages and injury histories of Verlander, Greinke, and Kershaw, we couldn't justify throwing that much money at them and locking them into three-year deals. So we moved those three out of that first tier and placed them into a "backup plan" tier.

We placed a half-hearted $12 million bid on Verlander in the first day of the auction and were not disappointed when we lost that bid. The player we really wanted, more than any other player available this winter, was Sale. The following day, we placed our $14 million bid on Sale. Then, just to be safe, we upped our bid to $15 million later that day. That would have required sacrificing a few of our needs later in the draft, but we felt it would have been worth it.

Unfortunately for us, both Jim Doyle and Tony Badger were hell-bent on spending 90% of their cash on one pitcher, leaving the rest of their rotations barren. Doyle won the bid for Sale at a whopping $16 million. Onto Plan B.

Plan B: Lock up that platoon first baseman at $5 million, and still have enough for a $14 million bid on Corbin later in the auction.

Several players would have fit that bill as the right-handed half of a platoon at first base, including Jedd Gyorko, Ben Zobrist, and C.J. Cron. As fate would have it, all three went for $5 million, and all three returned to their former teams with the home-field-discount tie-breaker.

Onto Plan C...

Plan C: Get Matt Carpenter.

By day five of the auction, we had committed to signing Patrick Corbin. We made half-hearted bids to Greinke and Kershaw and lost both, leaving Corbin as the only ace remaining on the board. We knew, however, that Badger was hell-bent on spending his $15 million on one pitcher, and that Corbin would be his target. So to avoid that bidding war, we decided we would go in the opposite direction. Instead of building a championship starting rotation, we would build a championship lineup.

Carpenter was the best full-time hitter available in the auction, and one of the only decent hitters under the age of 35. We didn't need his bat against right-handers, but we would certainly find a place for him. Under the worst-case scenario, we could simply trade Moreland to fill some other need.

The question was: how much should we bid? There was no need to waste our $14 million max bid, given the salary someone like Carpenter would normally fetch in the auction. However, because the supply of quality hitting was so low in this auction, we knew there would be price inflation. We submitted what we thought would be the winning bid of $9 million.

As the auction came to a close, the league speculated whether anyone would dare go "Type H" for Carpenter. I felt pretty good about my $9 million bid at that point. In fact, I thought we may get him for as low as $7 million. Or even $6 million. I began to mentally reallocate those "savings" to other areas of need.

Then the auction ended. And Jeff Paulson was named as the winning bidder. Because of course.

Plan D: Err...how about Justin Turner?

Turner was the best hitter in this year's draft class, but as he is rated only at third base, we had no use for him. That position was already jam-packed by Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Christian Villanueva, and Kike Hernandez. But we still needed a platoon first baseman. The only remaining free agents that could possibly fit that bill were Joey Votto, C.J. Cron, and Ryan Braun.

Unfortunately, Cron was in the same auction lot as Turner. We had no choice but to bid for both, but I had a queasy feeling that Cron's former team, the Sea Cats, would bid the $5 million max that would force me to go "Type H" if I wanted to fill that platoon position. That wasn't going to happen. I had zero interest in Braun, and Votto's numbers simply wouldn't play well in our ballpark, so I placed a $7 million bid on Turner. Imagine my surprise when we won the bid for a meager $5.5 million.

Plan E: GET PATRICK CORBIN!!

Our winning bid for Turner left us with $22.8 million to spend on six players. Two of those slots were already reserved at a combined $8 million. That left us with a maximum of $14.5 million to bid on Corbin. So that's what we did.

And predictably, Badger, hell-bent on spending $15 million on one pitcher, won the bid.

Plan F: Spread it around.

Our losing bid for Corbin was the end of our auction. We toyed with the idea of bidding big on Andrelton Simmons, and then using him as a super utility guy around the diamond, but discarded that notion fairly quickly.

We didn't get Sale. We didn't get Corbin. We didn't get Carpenter. But we did get the best hitter (PA for PA) available, and we did have plenty of money left to spend. So here's what we did with it:

Taylor Rogers

We waffled back and forth between Rogers and Dereck Rodriguez for weeks. When we lost the bid for Corbin, we assumed we would need Rodriguez's innings for our starting rotation, but a second calculation proved otherwise. We can make do with what we have. Rogers not only fills a bullpen need for us this year, but we believe he will be an asset next year as well. He transformed himself midway through last season and became one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in the second half. If he can continue that trend, he could be 2019's version of Josh Hader.

Ryan Brasier

It is insane to pay $5 million for a 31-year-old pitcher who tossed only 34 innings in MLB last season. But Brasier posted some pretty insane numbers, and they will come in handy -- especially if we make it to the postseason. He held right-handers to a .313 OPS, which is just flat-out insane. We thought about waiting until the $3 million rounds to snag him, but knew one of the vultures would have swooped in before we had the chance.

Evan Gattis

Yes, he's old and slow and fat. Yes, he hit just .226, posted a sub-.300 OBP, and strikes out way too often. But he also hit 25 home runs and was the best offensive "catcher" available in a putrid draft class for catchers. He won't see much playing time as Francisco Cervelli's backup, but every team needs a backup catcher at some point. Sure, it would have been nice to know on Day Two of the auction that Tyler Flowers would have gone for only $3 million, but that's now this works.

Ramon Laureano

As I wrote above, we identified Laureano as a "must-have" very early in the winter. He only played two months in the big leagues last year, but what an impact he made in such a short time. He established himself as an elite glove in center field, with arguably the best outfield arm in MLB. Offensively, he reminds us of a right-handed Odubel Herrera: .250-.260 batting average, plenty of walks, lots of strikeouts, 15-20 home run power, 15-25 steals. Just 24 years old, there is a ton of room in his profile for breakout potential.

Trevor May

May missed the entire 2017 season after Tommy John surgery. When he returned, he was just about lights-out. It's a small sample, but in 25 innings, he allowed just four walks and struck out 36. It looks as though he will remain in the bullpen, where we feel he has the stuff to be a dominant reliever.

Sunday, January 6, 2019

2019 Salem Farm Report

Ah, if only we had held onto (insert name of elite, Hall-of-Fame-bound superstar prospect here), the Salem farm would rank among the top systems in the entire BDBL and we would rule the league for the next decade! But alas, I must maintain my league-wide-recognized reputation as the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL and sprinkle all of our superstar prospect seeds throughout the kingdom so that everyone may share in my benevolence and wisdom.

Here is what is left of our farm system: 

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 20). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

Background: Rutschman led the Oregon State Beavers to a College World Series title last year, and then led all Team USA hitters in all three triple-slash categories during the summer. He is the consensus choice to become the #1 overall pick in the upcoming 2019 MLB Amateur Draft in June. Scouts give him top grades for his defense and arm behind the plate (both graded 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale.) He also carries a plus hit tool from both sides of the plate.

Stats: As a sophomore at OSU, Rutschman hit .408/.505/.628, with 22 doubles, 9 home runs, and more walks (53) than strikeouts (40). In nine games with Team USA, he slashed .355/.432/.516 with five doubles.

The Future: If he isn't drafted with the first overall pick this summer, it means something went terribly wrong. Among the Class of 2019, Rutschman is in a tier all by himself. He should move quickly through the minor leagues and eventually become the Catcher of the Future the Salem franchise has been anticipating since tabbing Ben Davis with that label way back in 1999.

2. Nick Madrigal, 2b
Born: March 5, 1997 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-7. Wt: 165. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2017.

Background: The fourth overall pick of last year's MLB draft, Madrigal has unworldly bat control -- which will either be his ticket to success or his demise. Because of his diminutive size, ability to hit to all fields, defensive prowess, and gritty gamy-ness, he has drawn comparisons to Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve.

Stats: Madrigal missed most of the first half of the season during his junior year at Oregon State. When he returned, he didn't skip a beat. In fact, he didn't strike out once during his first month back in the lineup. He finished the season with a line of .367/.428/.511, with 16 extra-base hits in only 42 games, and just seven strikeouts. In his three-year career with OSU (basically a full MLB season's worth of games), he hit .361/.422/.502, with 221 hits in 612 at-bats, 40 doubles, 11 triples, 8 home runs, 39 steals, 58 walks, and just 37 strikeouts.

The Future: Madrigal was expected to hit the ground running when he turned pro. Instead, he struggled a bit. He did hit .303 with a respectable .353 on-base percentage, but with only 7 extra-base hits, resulting in a .348 slugging percentage. The future is still very bright, but he needs to become more aggressive at the plate and prove he can hit for occasional power if he's going to become a full-time player in the major leagues.

3. Danny Jansen, c
Born: April 15, 1995 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 225. Acquired: trade, winter, 2019

Background: We originally acquired Jansen in the second round of the 2018 winter farm draft. Because we can't have nice things, we traded him to Cleveland later that year in exchange for Tommy Hunter. We then re-acquired Jansen this winter as part of the big Gary Sanchez trade.

Stats: Jansen has proven ability to consistently get on base and hit for occasional power. He hit .323/.400/.484 at three different minor league levels in 2017, and followed that with a .275/.390/.473 showing in Triple-A last year. His season culminated with a MLB trial, where he hit .247/.347/.432 in 32 games.

The Future: All indications are that Jansen will be given a shot as the Opening Day catcher for Toronto this year. He has some competition with Luke Maile and Reese McGuire, and the veteran Russ Martin is still hanging around. Still, Jansen is the favorite at this point to get most of the playing time. With Francisco Cervelli signed to another season for us in 2020, we can afford it if Jansen isn't ready to take over for us next year. We'd prefer it, however, if he won the job, kept it all season, and performed as well as he has in the past two seasons.

4. Will Smith, c
Born: March 28, 1995 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 192. Acquired: 2nd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: If there is one thing we have on the Salem farm, it is depth behind the plate. Of our three catching prospects, Smith may have the best defensive tools. Ironically, because of the presence of Keibert Ruiz in the Dodgers system, Smith may end up switching positions. In 2018, he played roughly half his innings at third base, where he is said to be an average defender. Smith was a first round pick by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft. He is currently ranked as the #29 prospect in baseball by FanGraphs -- the highest-ranked player selected in the 2019 farm draft.

Stats: For his career, Smith has hit .236/.342/.420. Last season, at the Double-A level, he hit .264/.358/.532, with 19 home runs.

The Future: The scouting reports seem mixed when it comes to Smith. He will likely never hit for a high average, but he has plenty of power potential. If he sticks behind the plate, his combination of power and defense would make him a valuable asset. At third base, however, it remains to be seen if his bat can carry his glove.

5. Luis Garcia, ss
Born: October 1, 2000 (age 18). B-T: B-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 170. Acquired: 1st round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Not to be confused with the Washington Nationals prospect with the same name, this Luis Garcia was considered to be among the top prospects in last year's Latin American/J2 class. The scouting report on him was that he was capable of elite defense, but there were questions about his bat. As it turned out, his bat seemed just fine. Garcia was challenged with an assignment to the full-season Gulf Coast League and played the entire season as a 17-year-old. In the end, he was named the #1 prospect in the league.

Stats: In 168 at-bats, Garcia hit a league-leading .369, with a .433 OBP and .488 slugging percentage. He racked up 15 extra base hits (1 home run) and owned an impressive 15/21 BB/K ratio.

The Future: It's a fool's game to project the future for a 17-year-old kid. Over the next year, Garcia could follow in former Cowtipper Wander F'ing Franco's footsteps and leap into the top tier of prospects. Or he could follow in former Cowtipper Adrian Rondon's footsteps and fall off the face of the planet. At this point, it's a coin flip. But if I trade him, then it's a 100% certainty that he will become the next Alex Rodriguez.

6. Jackson Kowar, p
Born: Oct 4, 1996 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 180. Acquired: via trade, winter 2019.

Background: Kowar was selected in the first round by the Kansas City Royals last summer after a stellar career with the University of Florida. Tall and lanky, he owns a fastball and change-up that both grade in the 55/60 range.

Stats: Last season with Florida, Kowar struck out 115 batters in 113 innings, with 101 hits allowed, 43 walks, and a 3.04 ERA. In his pro debut, he posted a 3.42 ERA in the Low-A Sally League, with 19 hits and 12 walks allowed in 26+ innings, and 22 K's.

The Future: At this point, Kowar is more projection than performance. He needs to refine his pitches and improve his command and control. The tools are all there for him to become a top-tier pitching prospect, but there is still a long way to go.

7. Spencer Howard, p
Born: July 28, 1996 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Drafted in the second round of the 2017 MLB draft out of Cal Poly, Howard made significant strides last season that are obscured by his overall numbers. Blessed with a fastball that can touch 100mph, a power slider, and two other pitches that grade as average, Howard has the tools to become a frontline starting pitcher. He simply needs to put it all together for a full season.

Stats: Overall, Howard posted a 3.78 ERA last season, with a 40/147 BB/K ratio in 112 innings. From July 1st to the end of the season, however, he posted a 2.36 ERA, with a 20/71 ratio in 53 innings. He then capped off the season with a no-hitter in the playoffs.

The Future: If Howard can continue to build on what he accomplished in the second half of last season, the sky is the limit. He will be challenged at the Double-A level in 2019, which is where we'll see what he's really made of.

8. Jhon Torres, of
Born: March 29, 2000 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 199. Acquired: 9th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: A prototypical power-hitting right fielder, Torres split his time between the rookie Arizona League and Gulf Coast League last season following a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals. He was named the #2 prospect in the former and #6 in the latter.

Stats: In his career, Torres has hit .286/.383/.462, with 16 doubles, 13 homers, and a 47/78 BB/K ratio in 346 at-bats.

The Future: As far as 18-year-old lottery tickets go, Torres poses less of a risk than most. In particular, his ability to hit for power while maintaining a healthy BB/K ratio suggests that he is an intelligent hitter with some idea of what he is doing when he steps into the box. The only question is whether he will continue to develop in 2019 or slide backward.

9. Jeter Downs, ss
Born: July 27, 1998 (age 20.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 180. Acquired: 5th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: How could we not love a shortstop named Jeter? Downs was a supplemental first round pick in the 2017 MLB draft. He was ranked the 8th-best prospect in the Class A Midwest League by Baseball America. He's an above-average athlete with plus-speed and above-average pop for a middle infielder.

Stats: Last year, Downs hit .257/.351/.402, with 13 homers and 37 steals in 455 at-bats. In his career (roughly a full season at 170 games), he has hit .260/.356/.408, with 19 homers, 26 doubles, 45 steals, and a 79/135 BB/K ratio.

The Future: Downs was traded to the Dodgers this winter in the big Puig/Wood/Kemp deal, which means LA must think highly of him. The consensus opinion is that Downs will not stick at shortstop, which likely means a move to third base given his plus arm strength. The question is whether he has enough bat to carry that position.


10. Lenny Torres, p
Born: October 15, 2000 (age 28.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: 8th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Torres was one of the youngest players selected in the 2018 MLB draft. Chosen in the supplemental first round by the Cleveland Indians, he was assigned to the Arizona League, where he more than held his own as a 17-year-old.

Stats: In only six starts and 15+ innings, Torres allowed 14 hits and 4 walks, striking out 22.

The Future: Torres played mostly at shortstop in high school, so pitching is still relatively new to him. Given that, it's even more impressive to see what he was able to do in his first exposure to pro hitters. Granted, it's a small sample size, but it's still encouraging.