Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Chapter Four Review

Through the first two chapters of this season, the Cowtippers co-owned the best record in the BDBL, with a winning percentage of .679. We outscored our opponents by 105 runs, which easily led the league. The next-highest margin was +68.

Through the next two chapters, the Cowtippers have owned a mediocre 27-21 (.563) record. This is only the seventh-best record in the BDBL over that period, are only one game better than the pathetic Joplin Miners' record during that time. We have been outscored by our opponents by 13 runs during this time.

What the hell happened? What changed?

The only changes we have made were additive. We added Brett Gardner (.265/.311/.456) this past chapter. He represents an upgrade over Andrew Benintendi (.200/.278/.330 vs. RH). We also added Rowan Wick (0.47 ERA in 19 IP), Aaron Bummer (3.45 in 15+), and Mark Melancon (4.32 in 8+). These have all been positive changes to our roster. So how the hell did we get WORSE?

Much of the blame lies with our pitching staff. We owned a 3.46 ERA in the first two chapters. Max Scherzer (6-4, 2.96 ERA), Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 3.46), and Jon Gray (5-2, 2.58) were outstanding. In the past two chapters, our team ERA has ballooned to 4.29. Scherzer (2-4, 5.88 ERA), Sanchez (1-2, 6.95), and Gray (3-3, 4.22) have been mostly useless.

The offense has also mysteriously flushed itself down the toilet over the past two chapters. In the first two chapters of the season, Salem led the entire BDBL in runs scored (346) and hit .279/.338/.501 as a team. In the past two chapters, Salem has scored just 210 runs (136 fewer than the first two chapters!), and hit just .241/.301/.438. We hit 101 home runs in the first two chapters and only 66 in the next two.

Folks...THIS IS THE SAME FUCKING TEAM!

Nearly our entire team has fallen into a slump, all at once. Here are the comparisons in OPS between the first two chapters of the season and the last two:

Tom Murphy: 1192 vs. 807Rafael Devers: 1086 vs. 916Cameron Maybin: 1014 vs. 909Ramon Laureano: 1000 vs. 725Nick Senzel: 950 vs. 664Shohei Ohtani: 893 vs. 678Alex Avila: 880 vs. 518Bryan Holaday: 868 vs. 381Carlos Puello: 808 vs. 670Christian Walker: 788 vs. 684Jose Ramirez: 781 vs. 858Trea Turner: 753 vs. 887Aledmys Diaz: 706 vs. 974Andrew Benintendi: 698 vs. 589

It's difficult to believe that Benintendi could possibly slump any worse than he did in the first two chapters, and yet here we are. ELEVEN out of the fourteen hitters on our roster hit worse over the past two chapters than the first two -- in some cases by more than 200 OPS points!

Some of this can be explained by our schedule. We played our division rivals eight games each in the first two chapters, and have not played against them since then. Those three rivals currently rank #8, #11, and #12 in the Ozzie League in ERA, and #7, #10, and #12 in runs scored. Some of this can be explained by sheer regression. Murphy, Laureano, and Senzel weren't likely to maintain their performance in Chapters One and Two, and Jon Gray probably wouldn't maintain his all-star pace.

So, what does this all mean? It means that the 2020 Salem Cowitppers were not as good as they appeared to be in the first two chapters. Hopefully, we're not as bad as we've played in the last two, but that remains to be seen.

Now, for the good, bad, and (mostly) ugly from Chapter Four.

The Good


There wasn't much "good" to be found in Chapter Four, unfortunately. Aledmys Diaz (.364/.417/.864 in 22 AB) and Cameron Maybin (.333/.520/.444 in 18) scorched the ball in a very small number of AB's.

Jose Ramirez (.310/.361/.667) finally pulled his head out of his ass. Trea Turner (.286/.337/.451) turned his game up a notch, and was finally successful (7-for-8) in the stolen base department.

Christian Walker (.273/.343/.489) didn't suck, although his Granite Glove cost us a game.

We are going to miss J.B. Wendelken (2-0, 0.00 ERA in 5+ IP, with 3 SV's) when his usage runs out. (Which will be very soon.)

Stephen Strasburg (3-1, 2.14 ERA in 33+ IP) and Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.45 in 25+) were the only two starters who weren't completely useless in Chapter Four.

The Bad


After three chapters of MVP-caliber performance, Rafael Devers did this in Chapter Four: .272/.290/.437, with just ONE home run, and a BB/K ratio of 3/18. Yuck.

What the hell happened to Tom Murphy's bat? He was brilliant in the first half of the season, but disappeared in Chapter Four: .244/.289/.390. Likewise, fellow lefty-masher Nick Senzel fell down the stairs: .226/.264/.419. No wonder we struggled so badly against left-handers!

The Ugly


Taylor Rogers (5.87 ERA in 7+ IP, with 11 hits allowed) was an absolute nightmare out of the bullpen, but nowhere near as bad as his MLB teammate, Trevor May (17.18 ERA in 7+ IP, with 16 hits, 7 BB, and 4 HR allowed. Maybe we should stop acquiring Minnesota Twins pitchers.

Jon Gray went 0-3, with a 7.46 ERA in 25+ IP. This is the same Jon Gray who pitched in the all-star game last month. Go figure.

Max Scherzer cost us $15.5 million in the auction. Evidently, it was a colossal waste of resources. He went 0-4 last chapter, with a -- get this -- 8.74 ERA in 22+ IP. He coughed up seven home runs in five games. Bravo, Max. Bravo.

And then there is Anibal Sanchez. He allowed 12 runs in a game not once, but TWICE, in Chapter Four. His pitching line for the chapter: 27+ IP, 45 H, 13 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 9.11 ERA. How bad was Sanchez in Chapter Four? Even JOSE BERRIOS had a better ERA than Sanchez. Yeah. That bad.

Shohei Fucking Ohtani: .196/.228/.294. Seriously, dude? No, really. Fucking seriously??


Benintendi is pure, unfiltered, dog crap: .188/.316/.354. There are several pitchers in the BDBL who can hit better than Benny.

Ramon Laureano: .212/.243/.379. That is simply inexplicable.

But this one takes the cake. Get a load of this heaping pile of bullshit from Alex Avila: .064/.170/.064. OH-SIX--FUCKING-FOUR!! Avila went 3-for-47 in Chapter Four. THREE FOR FORTY-SEVEN!!! This is the bullshit we have to put up with until Adley Rutschman arrives.