2019 Playoffs Diary: On Second Thought...

This is how the process works, folks. I spend a good deal of time formulating a strategy based on considerable thought, logic, reason, and common sense. Then, a day or two later I toss it all out the window and do the opposite. Welcome to November baseball.

I have tossed around so many different ideas when it comes to my OLDS starting rotation that I've scratched out an entire sheet of paper, both sides, with potential ideas. I had sound reasons for each and every idea, mind you, but after playing a few exhibition games, I've come to realize that my latest strategy may easily backfire.

First, the decision to start Strasburg for three games on three days rest seemed reasonable on the surface. I have gone with a three-man rotation in the postseason before, with both positive and negative results. Stras could handle pitching on three days rest...BUT I would have to limit him to around 85 pitches per start. After playing a few exhibition games against the Akron squad, I've realized that 85 pitches only equates to around six innings -- at best.

In the last exhibition I played, I pulled Stras after six innings, with a 6-0 lead, and proceeded to watch Akron tie the game the very next inning. I realize that I shouldn't make rash decisions based on one fluke inning in one meaningless exhibition game, but that one shook me to the core. I wouldn't be able to live with myself if that actually happens in a game that counts.

So, I have decided (for now) that Stras will only pitch twice in the series, on full rest. Which brings me to my next change of heart. I originally had Strasburg written in ink to start Game One of the series. However, it really doesn't matter if he pitches Game One or Two, given that Mike Clevinger and Trevor Williams are both equally-matched opponents. If I were to start Strasburg on Game Two, then he wouldn't start again until Game Six -- both home games. Given Strasburg's penchant for allowing home runs, and given Akron's very generous home run ballpark factors, I think it's best to avoid pitching Strasburg in Akron altogether.

I have also had a change of heart about that "bullpen" game. I've tried to manage that game in several exhibition contests, and it just doesn't seem to work well with our personnel. We blow through too many pitchers, too quickly, and it leaves us vulnerable in the late innings. This strategy also heavily depends on having a fully-rested bullpen -- which is very unlikely to happen.

As of this moment, our OLDS rotation looks something like this:

Game 1: Sanchez
Game 2: Strasburg
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Cahill or Bullpen (depending on many factors)
Game 5: Sanchez
Game 6: Strasburg
Game 7: Cahill or Bullpen

Cahill is limited to 8.2 innings in usage for the series, so he can only pitch one of those two games. We will likely be forced into a bullpen game if this series goes seven games. I originally planned to make Felix Pena the 25th man on our roster, but now I'm leaning toward Jon Gray -- just in case. He would give us another option for Game 7 if necessary. But let's hope it doesn't get to that point.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Scouting the Ryche

We went 6-6 against Akron during the regular season. Aside from one blowout 12-1 win, most of those games were close. In fact, seven out of the twelve games were decided by just one run. Needless to say, our teams are evenly-matched.

Any time you face an opponent that is so evenly-matched, it places a greater emphasis on advanced scouting. Any advantage that can be found must be exploited. Each game could very well be decided by one decision.

My first question as I scan the Akron roster is: who will D.J. Shepard pitch against us? Mike Clevinger and Trevor Williams are the only two guaranteed starters, and will likely start the first two games, in either order. Clevinger started a game in all three series, and absolutely dominated. He allowed only 3 runs on 8 hits in 20+ innings. It is tempting to start Shohei Ohtani in right field against him, just to have one more left-handed bat in the lineup. The only other option would be to give Ramon Laureano a start, but Clevinger dominated right-handed batters (.219/.264/.380) this season.

Williams started twice against us this season and held us in check both times. His split stats are more consistent than Clevinger's, so adding another left-handed bat wouldn't help much. The first two games in this series are all but guaranteed to be low-scoring affairs for us. Whatever advantage we get from having the home field will be negated by those two pitchers.

Clevinger could possibly pitch on short rest, given his Vg endurance rating, but Williams is thankfully rated only Av. My guess is that Clevinger starts Games One, Four, and Seven, and Williams starts Games Two and Six. Who starts Games Three and Five? Your guess is as good as mine. Jose Quintana (16-8, 3.87 ERA in 32 starts) and Robbie Ray (6-5, 4.87 ERA in 24 starts) racked up the next two highest start totals during the regular season, but D.J. seems reluctant to throw left-handers against us. Of the twelve games we played this season, a lefty started only three of them.

Marcus Stroman started twice against us, but didn't pitch particularly well. There is such a disconnect between his MLB and BDBL numbers that I don't know what to make of him. Garrett Richards (3-4, 3.78) started one game against us, but he is eligible to throw only six innings in the Division Series. If I had to guess, I would say the pitching matchups for this series will be:

Game 1: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
Game 2: Sanchez vs. Williams
Game 3: Buchholz vs. Quintana
Game 4: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
Game 5: Bullpen vs. Richards
Game 6: Sanchez vs. Williams
Game 7: Strasburg vs. Clevinger

I could be completely wrong about that. Time will tell.

Akron's bullpen is filled with left-handers, which works to our advantage. Two of those lefties, Jose Castillo and Josh Hader, are very homer-prone, which also works to our advantage. If we can keep the score close heading into the late innings, we should be in good shape.

Offensively, we will have to deal with one of the most potent lineups in the league. Akron's ballpark is heavily-tilted toward power hitters from both sides of the plate. We're starting Buchholz in Akron for that reason, as he was the best starter on our team for preventing home runs. For that reason, Strasburg will likely struggle.

Jedd Gyorko (1.130 OPS vs. LH), David Dahl (1.075), Ronald Acuna (1.031), and Yairo Munoz (1.030) all pummeled left-handers all season, so we'll have to do our best to avoid using Oliver Perez and Taylor Rogers against them. Against righties, newcomer Scooter Gennett (.975), Acuna (.972), Kolten Wong (.942), Jesse Winker (.941), and Starling Marte (.931) are all pains in the ass.

Strategically, D.J. is pretty much a "1-1" type of manager. He doesn't run a lot, doesn't bunt a lot, and led the league with the fewest number of intentional walks. This is neither an advantage or disadvantage. He does control the running game well, and Akron's main catcher, Wilson Ramos, keeps base stealing to a minimum with his Vg arm. This diminishes one of our big weapons, but won't entirely erase it.

At first glance, there don't appear to be many areas for exploitation for this series. We'll just have to pound the "1" key and hope the Gods of Random Dice Rolls are kind to us.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Setting the OLDS Roster

We have a lot of decisions to make before the first pitch of the OLDS is thrown. For starters, we have to figure out what the hell we're going to do with our starters. Only five pitchers on our entire staff threw enough innings in MLB '18 to qualify for unlimited usage in the playoffs. Two of those pitchers -- Sonny Gray and Steven Matz -- are definitely not playoffs material.

One other, Jon Gray, is an enigma. He was unexpectedly outstanding this season: 10-3, 3.48 ERA in 108+ innings, with only 98 hits allowed, and 111 K's. He held both lefties (697 OPS) and righties (662) at bay, which would be a very big asset against the balanced offensive attack of the Akron Ryche.

...BUT...

You have to take his numbers with an Everest-sized grain of salt. We only used him against the worst teams in the league this year. The only above-.500 teams he faced all season were Joplin (who crushed him) and Ravenswood (who didn't.) I simply can't trust that Gray would perform well against a team like Akron. So he will be sitting out the month of November as well.

That leaves two pitchers with unlimited innings in the playoffs: Stephen Strasburg and Anibal Sanchez. The problem with Sanchez is that we never know which version will show up on game day: the one who dominated Major League Baseball last year of the one who continually disappointed us all season in the BDBL. Sanchez allowed six runs in three different games this season, and one of those was against Akron.

I don't think we have any other choice but to keep him on the playoffs roster and give him two starts in the Division Series. Our best starter, Clay Buchholz, is limited to 7.2 innings. Trevor Cahill is limited to 8.2. Shohei Ohtani is limited to 4. It is tempting to use our bullpen as much as possible, but we can only "bullpen" so many games.

At this point, our LDS rotation looks something like this:

Game 1: Strasburg
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Strasburg
Game 5: Bullpen game (start Ohtani for 2)
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Strasburg

There are a lot of "X-factors" involved with this plan. Strasburg will be pitching on three days rest, which means we'll have to limit him to around 90 pitches per game. Or we could move our bullpen game to Game 4 and have Stras start Game 5 on full rest. Or we could give Cahill a start. The problem is that if we did either, we'd have no one to start Game 7. However, you should never plan a series to go the distance. One game at a time. We can worry about Game 7 if we get there.

Our bullpen is set: Taylor Rogers, Ryan Brasier, Jonathan Holder, Oliver Perez, Rich Rodriguez, Pedro Strop, and Ohtani for two. We will also keep Cahill on the roster in case we get ourselves into an extra-innings jam.

Our offense is also set in stone. Akron will likely start two left-handers (Carlos Quintana and Robbie Ray), which means our two lefty-bashers, Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia, are no-brainers. Akron's two best relievers are also left-handed, so we need to max out their usage this series.

Odubel Herrera and Hunter Renfroe were dreadful all season, but we may need to give Renfroe a start, as Ramon Laureano is limited to just 6 PA's against lefties in this series. Otherwise, the rest of the lineup shakes out as it has throughout the season.

We have a big decision to make regarding our lineup against right-handers. Shohei Ohtani's bat is far too valuable to waste on the bench. He hit .279/.369/.487 this season against righties -- and that was a drastic under-performance. He is a huge liability in the field, however, as he is not rated at any position. We used him a lot in right field this season, and he was absolutely dreadful. If he cost the team a run per game in the field, his bat made up for it throughout the course of the long 160-game season. In a short series, however, those small mistakes are magnified and every run is crucial.

The problem is that if Ohtani's bat isn't in the lineup, then he'll be replaced by either Enrique Hernandez (.213/.299/.448 vs. RH this year) or Renfroe (.186/.234/.350). We can't afford to start either of them. At this point, it may need to be a game-time decision. On the plus side, both Hernandez and Renfroe are right-handed power hitters, which plays well in Akron's home park (RH HR factor of 115).

Another question we will need to eventually address is what to do with our 25th roster spot. At the moment, it's empty. We could give it to Herrera or Danny Jansen, but that seems like a waste of a spot. Trevor May is only eligible to pitch two innings in the series, but they would likely be two great innings. Felix Pena was lights-out (.218/.262/.280) against righties, but was pounded by lefties, so he wouldn't be all that useful against Akron's balanced lineup. Mike Montgomery would be a waste of a roster spot as well.

This Division Series will be decided by a series of coin flips. Akron is a 100-win team with a potent offense and a quality pitching staff -- which is exactly why we didn't want to face them in the playoffs. We still have a lot of work to do to prepare for this series.