Thursday, July 18, 2019

Chapter Four Review

After three chapters of good, but not great, performance, the Salem Cowtippers turned the dial up to eleven in Chapter Four. If we have ever had a chapter where we won over 83% of our games, I don't remember it. Of course, I don't remember many things these days.

We went 20-4 on the chapter, which pushes our season record to 73-31. This puts us on pace to win 112 games, which would tie our franchise record, set way, way, back in 2002. This, coming from a team that I had assumed would be in rebuilding mode a year ago.

Of course, the highlight of our chapter was the four-game sweep of the world-dominating Los Altos Undertakers -- in their home ballpark! I a team could ever make a "statement", that would definitely be a strong one. Of course, the (well-earned) pessimist that I am, I see this as the Baseball Gods' way of setting us up for an epic failure in the postseason, when these games actually mean something.

For now, we bask in the glow of a very fulfilling chapter, and look forward to seeing what this team can do over the final fifty-six games.

The Good

For three chapters, the Salem Cowtippers couldn't hit for shit. But in Chapter Four, the bats finally awoke from their slumber. We hit .260/.357/.475 as a team, with 37 home runs and 146 runs scored (an average of over six per game.)

Christian Villanueva (.353/.476/.824) continued his season-long tear. Francisco Cervelli (.265/.403/.510) was solid as always. Andrew Benintendi (.349/.413/.602) broke out in a huge way. As did -- FINALLY! -- Justin Turner (.323/.421/.462). Jose Ramirez (.267/.402/.633) led the team in homers (9), RBI (19), and runs created (25.4).

The new guy, Travis Shaw (.288/.449/.678), hit the ground running, but the other new guy, Brandon Nimmo (.204/.359/.347) struggled in his Salem debut.

Even the backups performed well in Chapter Four. Evan Gattis (.276/.364/.690), Rafael Devers (.455/.500/.636 in 11 AB), and -- get this! -- Mitch Moreland (!?!?) (.333/.400/.833 in 12 AB) performed well in small samples.

On the mound, I have to begin with the performance of our bullpen in Chapter Four, which was simply incredible. Trevor May, Shohei Ohtani, newcomer Oliver Perez, Rich Rodriguez, and Pedro Strop tossed 36+ innings last chapter and didn't allow a single run.

Our #8 starter, Jon Gray, who wasn't even supposed to pitch for us this season, went 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his two starts. In 16 innings, he allowed just 8 hits and 3 walks, with a dozen strikeouts.

Clay Buchholz (1-0, 2.05 ERA in 22 IP), Mike Montgomery (0-1, 2.38 in 11+), Taylor Rogers (1-0, 2.53 in 10+), Jonathan Holder (2.61 in 10+), Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.76 in 16+), Stephen Strasburg (3-0, 2.84 in 25+), and even Anibal Sanchez (!) (2-1, 2.88 in 25) were all outstanding as well.

The Bad

Odubel Herrera (.226/.339/.321) posted numbers that were almost identical to Nimmo's -- although Herrera's subpar performance was no surprise. He's been subpar for several years now.

Danny Valencia (.222/.250/.370) finally came back to earth after three insane chapters. Shohei Ohtani (.227/.320/.318) also seriously regressed after turning up the heat in Chapters Two and Three.

Trea Turner (.242/.300/.384) was a disappointment, and was Enrique Hernandez (.245/.235/.429), although both had their moments in Chapter Four.

Felix Pena (5.28 ERA in 3 starts) and Trevor Cahill (5.87 in 3 starts) were both pretty bad in Chapter Four...and yet they went 4-1 combined!

The Ugly

Man, Hunter Renfroe (.200/.273/.375) is just never going to start hitting this year, is he? I figured with the difference in ballpark factors, he'd be a surprise contributor for us this year. Boy, was I wrong!

Looking Ahead to 2020

Now that the MLB all-star game is in the rearview, we can take a peek ahead to see what may lie in store for us in 2020. The 2020 team begins with a guy we very nearly traded earlier this year: Rafael Devers. The 22-year-old is having a breakout season (.326/.380/.558) and looks as though he will be the centerpiece of our team.

Surrounding Devers in the lineup,we have Justin Turner (.295/.372/.467), Andrew Benintendi (.268/.346/.425), Hunter Renfroe (.249/.312/.591, with 27 HR), Ramon Laureano (.274/.324/.501), and Trea Turner (.280/.340/.474). The biggest waste is Shohei Ohtani (.303/.361/.546), who has no position. He will either be the best pinch hitter in the BDBL next year or the biggest defensive liability somewhere in the field.

At this point, Jose Ramirez (.232/.314/.370) looks like an expensive cut, but you never know. He's finally beginning to hit in the month of July. If he finishes strong, we may be able to use him.

The catching position, which was supposed to be our strength in 2020, looks like a black hole at this point. Francisco Cervelli has had a season-long concussion, and Danny Jansen seems to be suffering from amnesia, as he's forgotten how to hit a baseball. Thank god for scrap heap pickup Tom Murphy (.268/.304/.520). Looking back, I guess we should have taken Jason Castro in the draft. Not only would we have a decent catcher, but we would have kept him off of the Los Altos roster.

On the mound, it looks like Stephen Strasburg (122-99-13-30-144) will be our ace. Jon Gray (120-122-17-45-124) and his evil step-cousin Sonny (103-81-11-36-120) are solid mid-rotation arms. Anibal Sanchez (90-84-13-35-77) has also pitched well of late.

With Trevor Cahill (6.56 ERA), Clay Buchholz (6.57), Steven Matz (4.87), Daniel Norris (5.14), and Mike Montgomery (5.67) all sucking major monkey nuts, they all look to be expensive cuts this coming winter. The jury is still out on Felix Pena (4.92), who has been up and down all season long.

In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers (1.69) looks like our closer. Ryan Brasier (4.24) looks like a cut at this point. Jonathan Holder (6.81) has been an absolute trainwreck. But Richard Rodriguez (3.48), Trevor May (3.79), and the newly-acquired Ryne Harper (2.79) could contribute to the cause.