Opening Day. Are there any two more exciting words in the English language? "Free beer", perhaps. For Matt Clemm, "Taco Tuesday" may elicit equal excitement. For me, Opening Day means hope. Maybe this is the year. Maybe this time, all of my hard work will pay off. Maybe all that time I spent reading and pouring over numbers and spreadsheets will have actually paid dividends. Maybe the Baseball Gods will finally stop pissing all over me, and my team will perform exactly as awesomely as I expect. Maybe this year, Lucy won't yank that football away, and I'll kick it straight through the goalposts.
Then, before the first game has ended, all of that hope completely drains from my system and is instantly replaced by that familiar sensation of simmering rage in the pit of my belly, and I ask myself, "Why, why, why do I waste my time playing this stupid fucking game?"
Tony Chamra hates me. That is the only explanation I have as to why he forces me to open each season in the pit stain of New Milford. Don't get me wrong, I love the town itself. I was born and raised there. It is a quaint New England village that seems to have been hermetically-sealed in a time capsule. You walk along its lush town green, lined along each side by little mom-and-pop-run shops and buildings that have stood since before the American Revolution, with a World War II tank at one end of the green and a statue of Abe Lincoln at the other, with a green-painted bandstand at its center, and it feels as if you've been magically transported into a Norman Rockwell painting.
But if you stroll a little further away from this heartwarming scenery, toward the darkened waters of the Housatonic River, you will soon spot its looming presence on the horizon. Then, that smell will invade your nostrils and there is no mistaking where you are. Nestle Field, home of the despicable Blazers.
It is an eyesore amidst the lush New England landscape. Its architect must have been the same person who designed the Death Star. Gray, bleak, and uninviting. As you approach the monstrosity further, you begin to see and hear them. Pretentious New Milford fans, strolling toward the ballpark in their Izod-clad ensembles, with their white linen pants and boat shoes. Between discussions about their yacht club and the most recent editorial by Paul Krugman, you will hear these modern-day Yuppies brag about how bored they are with their favorite ballclub. "Winning a hundred games every year has become so mundane," one will say. "Why, it's hardly worth the effort to watch them anymore, knowing the outcome is predestined. If it weren't for the fabulous brie and wine selection at the Stadium Club, I'd probably forgo the entire charade."
Oddly enough, mixed in with these self-impressed snobs are legions of farmers smelling of manure and working-class joes covered with grease and oil. For the most part, these fans fill the right field bleachers, where they continue the proud Blazers tradition of performing a "roll call" where they give the middle finger to every member of the opposing team.
Our spring training schedule was a bit limited this year, and we played only six games. Oddly enough, all six were against the Blazers. When we won all six of those games, I knew right away that we were in trouble for this Opening Day Series. Surely, the Baseball Gods were fucking with me earlier than usual. My suspicions seemed unwarranted at first, as we took a 3-0 lead through the first six innings.
Our ace, Stephen Strasburg, has always struggled against the Blazers (with one notable postseason exception), but he was in cruise control throughout this game. After seven innings and 107 pitches, it was time to lift him and turn to our bullpen. And that is when Lucy yanked the football away once again.
We spent the winter trying to secure a closer. We tried to trade for one and failed. We tried to sign one in the auction, and even bid more than we ever wanted to bid for a reliever, and went 0-for-3. That left only three viable closers on the free agent market, and with the eighth overall pick in the draft, we felt fairly confident we would get one of them. But no. So, instead, we settled for the consolation prize of David Phelps.
Aside from issuing a few too many walks to left-handers, Phelps is a pretty decent reliever. Used in the right situations, he could be tremendously useful. I brought him into what I thought was an appropriate situation, where he would face two right handers in the next three batters in the order. Instead, Blazers skipper Anthony Peburn pinch hit for his expensive shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, sending lefty Greg Garcia to the plate instead.
No problem, I figured. Garcia draws a lot of walks, and Phelps issues a lot them, so that's probably what will happen. But no. Garcia doubled to lead off the inning. After Phelps whiffed another left-handed pinch hitter, that brought righty James McCann to the plate. Let me pause here a minute to give you McCann's numbers against righties:
.201/.243/.268
I wasn't even sure why McCann was in the lineup, frankly. I was ecstatic when a pinch hitter wasn't called to hit for him. My ecstasy didn't last long. McCann roped a base hit to center, easily scoring Garcia from second.
No problem, I thought. We're still up by a run. New Milford had Carpenter, Betts, and Freeman stepping to the plate. Carpenter and Freeman are both left-handed, and Betts can't hit lefties. So, the no-brainer move was to send my best left-handed pitcher, Mike Montgomery, out to the mound to shut this shit down.
The first batter, Carpenter, whiffed. Visions of winning the OL Manager of the Year swirled in my head.
Betts, who -- again -- can't hit lefties, singled. That's okay, though. He's still a good hitter, and we only need one more out.
Up stepped Freddie Freeman, New Milford's $13.5 million free agent winter bonus baby.
Double to the gap. Two runs scored. Game over.
That familiar sensation of boiling blood churned in my gut once more. Welcome, old friend. How I haven't missed you a bit.
That sensation continued in Game Two. Masahiro Tanaka, who our offense beat like a red-headed Jesse Pinkman in the preseason, completely shut down our righty-bashing, tailor-made-for-Nestle Field lineup. We managed all of two bloop singles through the first six innings. Gary Sanchez put us on the board in the seventh with the first home run of his BDBL career, but that was all the scoring we would do in this game.
After a 6-0 preseason, we then sat with an 0-2 record for the games that actually count.
Game Three kept the blood boiling. New Milford carried a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning. Once again, our high-octane offense decided to take the day off. Or so it seemed. Finally, in the seventh inning, the Cowtippers I knew and loved in the preseason finally showed up. Trea Turner got the ball rolling with a three-run pinch-hit bomb -- the first of his BDBL career. We scored four more runs in the eighth inning, and three more in the ninth. We scored 11 runs in the game -- ten of them in the final three innings!
At last, we had our first victory of 2017.
Just as it seemed our 2017 season would be filled with even more disappointment, we had reason for optimism once again. Hope was alive. Maybe this could be our year after all.
We handed the ball to Junior Guerra in Game Four, and he did not disappoint. He gave us six strong innings of shutout pitching, allowing just three hits and four walks. We then turned the game over to our bullpen trio of Rubby de la Rosa, David Phelps, and Sammy Solis. Incredibly, they managed to handle the workload, surrendering only one run.
We escaped with a split. If you had told me before this series we would split, I would've been disappointed. If you told me in the sixth inning of Game One that we would split, I would've been extremely disappointed. Given the circumstances, however, we'll take it. This is the first time since 2012 that we haven't begun a season with a losing record after one series.
One thing I have learned about this 2017 Cowtippers team is that they are extremely fun to manage. There is just so much flexibility on this roster. I can move guys around in the starting lineup or during the game, and really take advantage of situations as they develop. If I need a power bat at a certain point, I have one. If I need a guy to draw a walk or put a ball in play, we have that, too. Nearly every player on this team can steal a base if needed, and nearly every one of them can go first to third or second to home without much risk.
We have three players on the active roster who are rated at shortstop, three who are rated in center field, and one who is rated at third base, shortstop, and left field. In the bullpen, we have three relievers who are also rated as starters. We have righty-specialists, lefty-specialists, and reverse-split specialists. It really is fun moving all of these chess pieces around the board.
Best of luck to all my fellow GM's and managers this season. May Lucy not yank away your football.
Thursday, January 26, 2017
Sunday, January 8, 2017
2017 Cowtippers Farm Report
In 2016, we stockpiled farm talent. In 2017, we unloaded most of that talent in order to compete. Such is life on the Salem farm. Had we not sacrificed Amed Rosario, Blake Rutherford, Chance Adams, Aaron Judge, Dominic Smith, Corey Ray, Jorge Mateo, Jeff Hoffman, and Austin Hedges this winter, I believe the Salem farm club would have ranked #1 in this year's BDBL Farm Report. That would have been the first #1 ranking since 2003! As it stands, I believe we should rank among the top 5-10 farm systems even after all of our wheeling and dealing.
Born: July 5, 1994 (age 22). B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 189. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.
Background: Otani has had some remarkable seasons in the past, but 2016 was his best performance to date. The greatest player in the Japanese NPB, Otani set career highs in several categories. The most recent collective bargaining agreement severely reduces Otani's potential earning power when he comes to the US; however, according to his manager, he plans to make that transition after the 2017 season regardless of the money.
Stats: Otani's 1.86 ERA last season was a career-best. In 140 innings, he allowed only 89 hits (5.7 per nine!), 45 walks, and just four home runs. He struck out 174 batters, which is a career-best rate of 11.2 per nine. But that's only half the story. He also had a career year at the plate. In 382 PA's (another career-high), Otani batted .322/.416/.588 (all career-highs), with 22 home runs!
The Future: There is little doubt that Otani will come to the US after next season, which would put him in a 'Tippers uniform in 2019. We resisted the temptation to deal him this winter. We only need to keep resisting that temptation, and the reward could be legendary.
2. Andrew Benintendi, of
Born: July 6, 1994 (age 22.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-10. Wt: 170. Acquired: via trade, Chapter Three, 2016.
Background: Who in his right mind trades Kris Bryant? The reigning National League MVP, Bryant is arguably the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout, and has just begun a career that could potentially end in Cooperstown. To trade such a talent would have to require quite a haul in return -- and that is what we feel we received when we traded Bryant last year. Benintendi was the major piece in that trade. He is exactly the type of player we wanted as the centerpiece of our franchise. We envision him having an Alex Gordon type of career, only hopefully without the early struggles. We flipped another piece of that trade, Miguel Sano, for Gary Sanchez. A third piece, Austin Hedges, was traded for Miguel Cabrera. To get three for the price of one was a deal too tempting to reject.
Stats: Benintendi had nothing more to prove in the minor leagues after destroying the New York Penn and Sally Leagues in 2015, but Boston sent him back to the bush leagues to begin the 2016 season anyway. He continued to destroy minor league pitching until he could be held back no more and the Red Sox promoted him for good on August 10th. He basically compiled the equivalent of a full season in the minor leagues, in which he hit .312/.392/.540 in 657 PA's. He clubbed 38 doubles, 16 triples, and 20 home runs and walked (74) more often than he struck out (63). He also stole 26 bases for good measure.
In his MLB debut, he hit .295/.359/.476 in a very limited 118 PA sample, cut short by a freak injury in September.
The Future: Barring another freak injury, we expect Benintendi to be our full-time, middle-of-the-lineup, star in 2018 and beyond. He should be ranked among the top 3-5 prospects in the game when this year's BDBL Farm Report is released.
3. Rafael Devers, 3b
Born: October 24, 1996 (age 20). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 195. Acquired: 6th round, summer, 2013 draft
Background: For the first time in his professional career, Devers struggled during his first month at the High-A level. He hit just .138/.242/.263 in the month of April and followed that with a .245/.301/.351 performance in May. At last, he turned his season around in June and carried that momentum into the offseason.
Stats: Overall, his 2016 performance looks nearly identical to 2015: .282/.335/.443, with 11 home runs and 32 doubles in 503 at-bats. It doesn't look all that impressive until you realize that he played the entire season at age 19. Jomar Reyes and Gleyber Torres were the only two hitters younger than Devers in the Carolina League. In addition to his hitting, Devers reportedly made greats strides defensively, and now looks to be an asset at third base.
The Future: Devers should begin 2017 at the Double-A level, where we will finally get a chance to scout him in person. If he can carry his momentum into this coming season, there is a slim chance we could see him get a cup of coffee in September. More than likely, however, it will be 2019 at the earliest before we see him in a Cowtippers uniform.
4. J.B. Bukauskas, p
Born: August 11, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 196. Acquired: 1st round, 2017 Farm Draft
Background: Bukauskas was released by the Granite State Lightning on Cutdown Day, and we were more than happy to pick him back up in the draft. A hard-throwing right-hander, Bukauskas has a "70" fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also throws a mid-80's slider that is graded a 60. He is currently ranked as the #6 prospect in the upcoming draft by MLB.com.
Stats: J.B. ranked third in NCAA Division I baseball last year with a 12.8 strikeouts per nine rate. In 78+ innings, he allowed 68 hits and 29 walks, with 111 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA. With Team USA this summer, he allowed only one run in 21+ innings.
The Future: Way back in 2003, we took a flier on a young college pitcher from Old Dominion in the eighth round of the winter farm draft. We selected that pitcher based on his scouting reports and his high strikeout rate in college. A few months later, we traded that pitcher in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That college kid, Justin Verlander, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. We're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again -- only this time, we'll hang onto it.
5. Brady Singer, p
Born: August 4, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 190. Acquired: 2nd round, 2017 Farm Draft
Background: Singer is a rising sophomore with the University of Florida Gators. He was the highest-picked draftee from 2015 who decided to attend college instead of signing a professional contract. He will not be draft-eligible again until 2018, when he should be considered among the top prospects available. This summer, he was ranked by Baseball America as the top prospect in the Cape Cod League.
Stats: As a freshman, Singer tossed 43+ innings for the Gators, and allowed 43 hits and 17 walks, with 38 strikeouts. His 4.95 ERA was the highest on the team. During the Cape League this summer, he posted a minuscule 0.64 ERA in 28 innings, with 25 strikeouts.
The Future: Aside from his summer experience, Singer's numbers have yet to match his scouting reports. His sophomore season will either reveal a hidden gem or an overreach by our draft team. Time will tell.
6. Lucas Erceg, 3b
Born: May 1, 1995 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 200. Acquired: 3rd round, 2017 Farm Draft
Background: Erceg may have been the only player to elicit "damn-you's" from multiple teams when he was drafted this winter. Ranked as the #4 prospect in the Pioneer League and #20 prospect in the Midwest League, Erceg was a second round draft pick by the Brewers in 2016. He dominated the Pioneer League before a quick promotion to the Single-A Midwest League. He draws comparisons to Matt Carpenter because of his smooth left-handed swing.
Stats: Erceg completely overmatched Pioneer League pitching, hitting .400/.452/.552 in a short 105-AB sample. Upon his promotion, he hit .281/.328/.497 in 167 at-bats. He owns a respectable 20/54 BB/K ratio in his brief professional career.
The Future: Erceg is the type of player who can advance rapidly, both through the system and up the prospect ranking. If everything falls into place for him, he could be a top 50 prospect at this time next year.
7. Henry Owens, p
Born: July 21, 1992 (age 24). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 220. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2017
Background: Way back in December of 2007, we took a flier on a 24-year-old left-hander with the Boston Red Sox organization. The kid was raw. He walked way too many batters, and was approaching the age where it was becoming clear he would never figure it out. We saw something in that kid, though, so we took a gamble on him, and acquired him (along with a young Dellin Betances) in trade with the Ravenswood Infidels. A little more than a month later, we foolishly traded him to the Los Altos Undertakers in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That young kid's name was Jon Lester. We're hoping history will repeat itself -- right up to the foolish part.
Stats: Owens' MLB performance last year was pretty much a disaster, albeit in a very small sample. In 22 innings, he allowed a whopping 20 walks and five longballs. He posted an ugly 6.95 ERA, which raised his MLB career ERA (in 85 innings) to 5.19. Although his Triple-A ERA was much better (3.53), he still walked more than five batters per nine (81 walks in 137+ innings.)
The Future: Look up the word "flyer" in the dictionary, and there's a picture of Owens staring back at you. The Boston starting rotation is so jam-packed that there doesn't seem to be any room for Owens on the big league roster. A trade to some team with a fantastic pitching coach would be a godsend. This is a make-or-break year for his career.
8. Vladimir Gutierrez, p
Born: September 18, 1995 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 170. Acquired: 5th round, 2014 summer draft.
Background: Gutierrez was ranked the twelfth best prospect in Cuba by BA before his defection. He then spent more than a year trying out for various teams and underwhelming the scouts who attended. Perhaps it was fatigue or the long layoff, but eventually he regained the fastball and curveball that led to his glowing scouting reports in Cuba. On August 30th of last year, the Reds paid a whopping $4.75 million to sign him. Since then, he has worked out at instructional camp and has hit the weights. 2017 will be his US professional debut.
Stats: In his debut season in the Cuban National League, Gutierrez posted a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings, with 40 walks and 44 strikeouts. In his abbreviated second season, his ERA fell to 2.45 in 51+ innings. He cut his walks in half (19) and struck out 49 batters.
The Future: Gutierrez is likely to begin his US career in the Midwest League. Where he goes from there depends on how accurate those scouting reports were.
9. Adrian Rondon, ss
Born: July 7, 1998 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.
Background: Ranked as the #7 prospect in the Appalachian League, Rondon was one of the youngest players in the league last year. He exploded out of the gate, but then seemed to wear down as the season progressed. He was considered to be the #1 prospect in the 2014 international draft class.
Stats: Rondon followed an abysmal professional debut by hitting a respectable .249/.301/.430 in 193 at-bats. He slugged seven home runs, ten doubles, and two triples. He also posted a 13/58 BB/K ratio.
The Future: Rondon's path to the big leagues, assuming there is one, will be a long one. Assuming he advances one level per year, it will be four more years before he reaches the big leagues. That means we won't see him in Salem until 2022 at the earliest. Hopefully this league is still around by then.
Background: Castellani was ranked as the #1 prospect in the California League by Baseball America, and yet he fell to the fifth round of the BDBL farm draft. On the plus side, he performed exceptionally well despite being one of the youngest players in the league and pitching in a league that is notoriously difficult for pitchers. On the downside, his numbers look rather pedestrian compared to other top prospects. According to reports, he owns three "plus" pitches -- all of which he commands well. He has earned comparisons to Max Scherzer for the way he approaches the game.
Stats: Overall, Castellani allowed 156 hits and 50 walks in 168 innings, and struck out 142 batters. He finished the year strong, with a 2.37 ERA in his final seven starts.
Salem's Top Ten Prospects
1. Shohei Otani, pBorn: July 5, 1994 (age 22). B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 189. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.
Background: Otani has had some remarkable seasons in the past, but 2016 was his best performance to date. The greatest player in the Japanese NPB, Otani set career highs in several categories. The most recent collective bargaining agreement severely reduces Otani's potential earning power when he comes to the US; however, according to his manager, he plans to make that transition after the 2017 season regardless of the money.
Stats: Otani's 1.86 ERA last season was a career-best. In 140 innings, he allowed only 89 hits (5.7 per nine!), 45 walks, and just four home runs. He struck out 174 batters, which is a career-best rate of 11.2 per nine. But that's only half the story. He also had a career year at the plate. In 382 PA's (another career-high), Otani batted .322/.416/.588 (all career-highs), with 22 home runs!
The Future: There is little doubt that Otani will come to the US after next season, which would put him in a 'Tippers uniform in 2019. We resisted the temptation to deal him this winter. We only need to keep resisting that temptation, and the reward could be legendary.
2. Andrew Benintendi, of
Born: July 6, 1994 (age 22.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-10. Wt: 170. Acquired: via trade, Chapter Three, 2016.
Background: Who in his right mind trades Kris Bryant? The reigning National League MVP, Bryant is arguably the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout, and has just begun a career that could potentially end in Cooperstown. To trade such a talent would have to require quite a haul in return -- and that is what we feel we received when we traded Bryant last year. Benintendi was the major piece in that trade. He is exactly the type of player we wanted as the centerpiece of our franchise. We envision him having an Alex Gordon type of career, only hopefully without the early struggles. We flipped another piece of that trade, Miguel Sano, for Gary Sanchez. A third piece, Austin Hedges, was traded for Miguel Cabrera. To get three for the price of one was a deal too tempting to reject.
Stats: Benintendi had nothing more to prove in the minor leagues after destroying the New York Penn and Sally Leagues in 2015, but Boston sent him back to the bush leagues to begin the 2016 season anyway. He continued to destroy minor league pitching until he could be held back no more and the Red Sox promoted him for good on August 10th. He basically compiled the equivalent of a full season in the minor leagues, in which he hit .312/.392/.540 in 657 PA's. He clubbed 38 doubles, 16 triples, and 20 home runs and walked (74) more often than he struck out (63). He also stole 26 bases for good measure.
In his MLB debut, he hit .295/.359/.476 in a very limited 118 PA sample, cut short by a freak injury in September.
The Future: Barring another freak injury, we expect Benintendi to be our full-time, middle-of-the-lineup, star in 2018 and beyond. He should be ranked among the top 3-5 prospects in the game when this year's BDBL Farm Report is released.
3. Rafael Devers, 3b
Born: October 24, 1996 (age 20). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 195. Acquired: 6th round, summer, 2013 draft
Background: For the first time in his professional career, Devers struggled during his first month at the High-A level. He hit just .138/.242/.263 in the month of April and followed that with a .245/.301/.351 performance in May. At last, he turned his season around in June and carried that momentum into the offseason.
Stats: Overall, his 2016 performance looks nearly identical to 2015: .282/.335/.443, with 11 home runs and 32 doubles in 503 at-bats. It doesn't look all that impressive until you realize that he played the entire season at age 19. Jomar Reyes and Gleyber Torres were the only two hitters younger than Devers in the Carolina League. In addition to his hitting, Devers reportedly made greats strides defensively, and now looks to be an asset at third base.
The Future: Devers should begin 2017 at the Double-A level, where we will finally get a chance to scout him in person. If he can carry his momentum into this coming season, there is a slim chance we could see him get a cup of coffee in September. More than likely, however, it will be 2019 at the earliest before we see him in a Cowtippers uniform.
4. J.B. Bukauskas, p
Born: August 11, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 196. Acquired: 1st round, 2017 Farm Draft
Background: Bukauskas was released by the Granite State Lightning on Cutdown Day, and we were more than happy to pick him back up in the draft. A hard-throwing right-hander, Bukauskas has a "70" fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also throws a mid-80's slider that is graded a 60. He is currently ranked as the #6 prospect in the upcoming draft by MLB.com.
Stats: J.B. ranked third in NCAA Division I baseball last year with a 12.8 strikeouts per nine rate. In 78+ innings, he allowed 68 hits and 29 walks, with 111 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA. With Team USA this summer, he allowed only one run in 21+ innings.
The Future: Way back in 2003, we took a flier on a young college pitcher from Old Dominion in the eighth round of the winter farm draft. We selected that pitcher based on his scouting reports and his high strikeout rate in college. A few months later, we traded that pitcher in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That college kid, Justin Verlander, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. We're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again -- only this time, we'll hang onto it.
5. Brady Singer, p
Born: August 4, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 190. Acquired: 2nd round, 2017 Farm Draft
Background: Singer is a rising sophomore with the University of Florida Gators. He was the highest-picked draftee from 2015 who decided to attend college instead of signing a professional contract. He will not be draft-eligible again until 2018, when he should be considered among the top prospects available. This summer, he was ranked by Baseball America as the top prospect in the Cape Cod League.
Stats: As a freshman, Singer tossed 43+ innings for the Gators, and allowed 43 hits and 17 walks, with 38 strikeouts. His 4.95 ERA was the highest on the team. During the Cape League this summer, he posted a minuscule 0.64 ERA in 28 innings, with 25 strikeouts.
The Future: Aside from his summer experience, Singer's numbers have yet to match his scouting reports. His sophomore season will either reveal a hidden gem or an overreach by our draft team. Time will tell.
6. Lucas Erceg, 3b
Born: May 1, 1995 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 200. Acquired: 3rd round, 2017 Farm Draft
Background: Erceg may have been the only player to elicit "damn-you's" from multiple teams when he was drafted this winter. Ranked as the #4 prospect in the Pioneer League and #20 prospect in the Midwest League, Erceg was a second round draft pick by the Brewers in 2016. He dominated the Pioneer League before a quick promotion to the Single-A Midwest League. He draws comparisons to Matt Carpenter because of his smooth left-handed swing.
Stats: Erceg completely overmatched Pioneer League pitching, hitting .400/.452/.552 in a short 105-AB sample. Upon his promotion, he hit .281/.328/.497 in 167 at-bats. He owns a respectable 20/54 BB/K ratio in his brief professional career.
The Future: Erceg is the type of player who can advance rapidly, both through the system and up the prospect ranking. If everything falls into place for him, he could be a top 50 prospect at this time next year.
7. Henry Owens, p
Born: July 21, 1992 (age 24). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 220. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2017
Background: Way back in December of 2007, we took a flier on a 24-year-old left-hander with the Boston Red Sox organization. The kid was raw. He walked way too many batters, and was approaching the age where it was becoming clear he would never figure it out. We saw something in that kid, though, so we took a gamble on him, and acquired him (along with a young Dellin Betances) in trade with the Ravenswood Infidels. A little more than a month later, we foolishly traded him to the Los Altos Undertakers in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That young kid's name was Jon Lester. We're hoping history will repeat itself -- right up to the foolish part.
Stats: Owens' MLB performance last year was pretty much a disaster, albeit in a very small sample. In 22 innings, he allowed a whopping 20 walks and five longballs. He posted an ugly 6.95 ERA, which raised his MLB career ERA (in 85 innings) to 5.19. Although his Triple-A ERA was much better (3.53), he still walked more than five batters per nine (81 walks in 137+ innings.)
The Future: Look up the word "flyer" in the dictionary, and there's a picture of Owens staring back at you. The Boston starting rotation is so jam-packed that there doesn't seem to be any room for Owens on the big league roster. A trade to some team with a fantastic pitching coach would be a godsend. This is a make-or-break year for his career.
8. Vladimir Gutierrez, p
Born: September 18, 1995 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 170. Acquired: 5th round, 2014 summer draft.
Background: Gutierrez was ranked the twelfth best prospect in Cuba by BA before his defection. He then spent more than a year trying out for various teams and underwhelming the scouts who attended. Perhaps it was fatigue or the long layoff, but eventually he regained the fastball and curveball that led to his glowing scouting reports in Cuba. On August 30th of last year, the Reds paid a whopping $4.75 million to sign him. Since then, he has worked out at instructional camp and has hit the weights. 2017 will be his US professional debut.
Stats: In his debut season in the Cuban National League, Gutierrez posted a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings, with 40 walks and 44 strikeouts. In his abbreviated second season, his ERA fell to 2.45 in 51+ innings. He cut his walks in half (19) and struck out 49 batters.
The Future: Gutierrez is likely to begin his US career in the Midwest League. Where he goes from there depends on how accurate those scouting reports were.
9. Adrian Rondon, ss
Born: July 7, 1998 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.
Background: Ranked as the #7 prospect in the Appalachian League, Rondon was one of the youngest players in the league last year. He exploded out of the gate, but then seemed to wear down as the season progressed. He was considered to be the #1 prospect in the 2014 international draft class.
Stats: Rondon followed an abysmal professional debut by hitting a respectable .249/.301/.430 in 193 at-bats. He slugged seven home runs, ten doubles, and two triples. He also posted a 13/58 BB/K ratio.
The Future: Rondon's path to the big leagues, assuming there is one, will be a long one. Assuming he advances one level per year, it will be four more years before he reaches the big leagues. That means we won't see him in Salem until 2022 at the earliest. Hopefully this league is still around by then.
10. Ryan Castellani, p
Born: April 1, 1996 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 193. Acquired: drafted 5th round, 2017 winter farm draft.
Background: Castellani was ranked as the #1 prospect in the California League by Baseball America, and yet he fell to the fifth round of the BDBL farm draft. On the plus side, he performed exceptionally well despite being one of the youngest players in the league and pitching in a league that is notoriously difficult for pitchers. On the downside, his numbers look rather pedestrian compared to other top prospects. According to reports, he owns three "plus" pitches -- all of which he commands well. He has earned comparisons to Max Scherzer for the way he approaches the game.
Stats: Overall, Castellani allowed 156 hits and 50 walks in 168 innings, and struck out 142 batters. He finished the year strong, with a 2.37 ERA in his final seven starts.
The Future: Baseball America described him as a "front of the rotation workhorse." If that label sticks, the Cowtippers will have landed a bargain. If not, it's only a fifth round pick.
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