Thursday, May 31, 2018

Chapter Three Review

As I type, the Salem Cowtippers have moved into sole possession of first place in the McGowan Division. We own a slim one game lead, and the second place Joplin Miners still have four games left to play (against South Carolina), so that lead may not last long. Still, it's good to be able to type "first-place Salem Cowtippers" again.

We managed this feat despite going a rather ordinary 14-10 in Chapter Three. We blew numerous opportunities to win games last chapter, and struggled offensively -- especially against right-handed pitching. We lost or split a couple of critical series against sub-.500 teams, but our chapter was saved by two surprising series wins against Niagara (a sweep) and St. Louis (3-1).

Off the field, we managed to solve our usage problems for the stretch run. We deliberately ran Jon Gray's usage into the ground throughout the first half, and he is now done for the season. To replace him in our rotation, we acquired Sonny Gray from the brand-new management of the Granite State Lightning franchise. We also picked up a shortstop, Eric Sogard, to fill in the innings we will lose from having maxed-out Deven Marrero in the first half.

We announced a new strategy at the end of the 2015 season. We stockpiled young talent throughout the 2016 season. At the end of that season, we identified a core foundation of young talent that we vowed to never trade: Stephen Strasburg, Jon Gray, Shohei Ohtani, Trea Turner, Gary Sanchez, and Andrew Benintendi. Two years later, we have stuck with that strategy -- a rarity for our franchise.

My goal this year was to flesh out the roster through trades without dealing two more prospects that I believe may eventually join that core group: Nick Madrigal and Yusei Kikuchi. Although we were greatly tempted to trade both of them this past chapter, we managed not to give in to temptation.

With less than 15 VORP points remaining under our cap, this is most likely the roster we will carry throughout the second half of the season. We like this cast of characters, but it would be nice if they would all put it together at some point this season and reach their full potential. There is plenty of time for that to happen.

The Good

The highlight of our chapter was our interleague series against the Niagara Locks. In my twenty-year BDBL career, I have never witnessed a series like that one. Our pitchers managed to hold the Locks to just one run (a sacrifice fly) in four games. We won those games by scores of 6-0, 9-0, 2-1, and 3-0. And all of that happened despite losing our MVP, Jose Ramirez, for the entirety of the series, in the first inning of the first game!

To say that Jon Gray went out on a high note would be an understatement! In his final six starts, Gray went 4-0 with a 0.86 ERA. He allowed only 28 hits and 6 walks in 41+ innings, with 43 K's. As one of our two franchise pitchers, he wrapped up the 2018 season with a career-best 2.86 ERA. We hope his next start will be in the OL Division Series.

Our bullpen really came together in Chapter Three. Tommy Hunter and Mike Grace combined for nine innings of relief without allowing an earned run. (Even Ichiro Suzuki, believe it or not, tossed 1.2 innings of shutout relief.) Raisel Iglesias (1.42 ERA in 12+ IP) and newbie Brad Brach (1.59 in 11+) also gave stellar performances.

Jose Ramirez (.371/.385/.697 for the chapter) continued his stellar season in Chapter Three. He whacked 14 doubles in just 21 games. Matt Joyce (.328/.438/.803) FINALLY turned his season around last chapter, and led the team with eight home runs. Gary Sanchez (.299/.349/.481) and Jayson Werth (.278/.458/.667) also enjoyed productive chapters at the plate.

The Bad

Listing Eugenio Suarez in the "Bad" section is actually an upgrade. He managed to hit .250/.301/.456 in Chapter Three, which is 71 points below his MLB OPS -- and yet that was a stellar performance compared to prior chapters. He actually hit four home runs in the chapter, which doubled his total from the prior two chapters. At least he's trending in the right direction now.

Andrew Benintendi remains in a mysterious slump. He hit .259/.338/.379 for the chapter, which actually raised his season's numbers to .232/.312/.333. The lack of power is especially mysterious, given that Fenway's LH HR factor is 19 points lower than Salem's. He's on pace to hit 10 home runs this year -- half of his MLB total.

Yoenis Cespedes (.244/.256/.366) is yet another mysterious under-performer. His slugging percentage against righties is a whopping 217 points below his MLB number. Again, the RH HR factor in Salem is six points higher than it is in Citi Field. What gives??

Jose Quintana was practically brilliant throughout the first two chapters, but went just 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in five Chapter Three starts. Ol' Reliable Mike Leake (1-3, 5.88 ERA) was less-than-reliable last chapter as well. 

The Ugly

I really wish someone could explain why Mitch Moreland is SO awful. His BDBL numbers (.155/.212/.283 vs. RH) aren't in the same universe as his MLB numbers (.246/.324/.460). Overall, he is hitting 78 points below his MLB batting average, and 237 points below his MLB OPS. He has hit roughly as well as Jon Gray (.231/.231/.231) and Jose Quintana (.200/.200/.200). Most depressing of all, he has been very consistent throughout the season. He hit .210/.253/.358 in Chapter One, and .139/.213/.278 in Chapter Two. We have moved him to the #9 spot in the lineup, and yet it still isn't low enough.

Likewise, what the hell is up with Pedro Strop? Why does this game hate him so much? He was perfectly fine in Chapter One (3.15 ERA, 2 saves, in 20 IP), but then completely fell apart in Chapter Two (8.25 ERA in 12 IP), and continued his shittiness in Chapter Three (6.30 ERA in 10 IP). This is a guy who posted a nice and tidy 2.83 ERA in a tough pitchers park. C'mon, man!