Thursday, September 9, 2021

Chapter Five Review

Another chapter, another crushing disappointment.

We finished Chapter Five the same way we finished the preceding three chapters, combined: with a .500 record. The epitome of mediocrity. We are now 52-52 since the end of Chapter One, despite adding Jose Altuve, Mike Clevinger, Kurt Suzuki, Kolten Wong, Sean Doolittle, and Brandon Workman during that period. Over that same period, we rank seventh in the Ozzie League in runs per game with a paltry 4.8 (barely above the league average of 4.6). We hit .240/.310/.421 over that timeframe, compared to a league-average rate of .247/.315/.419.

By nearly every measure, we own a league-average offense despite having five players on our roster that posted an 800+ OPS on the disk. All five of those players are underperforming, with an OPS that ranges anywhere from 29 (Christian Walker) to 105 (Rafael Devers) points below their disk OPS. We also have two other batters with a disk OPS of .790+. One of them (Ramon Laureano) is actually outperforming his disk OPS by 26 points. The other, David Freese, is currently sporting an OPS (as a Cowtipper) of .605 -- a whopping 186 points below his disk OPS.

After slumping for several chapters, Devers has finally picked up the pace of late, and yet he is still batting just .198/.260/.397 against lefties (compared to .288/.337/.506 on the disk.) Yadiel Hernandez -- sporting an OPS of 801 on the disk against right-handers -- is currently hitting .231/.310/.394 against righties. Kurt Suzuki and Kolten Wong, added in order to boost our offense, are hitting .244/.312/.402 and .230/.335/.323 for us, respectively.

On the pitching side, we posted an incredible team ERA of 2.44 in the first chapter. Our team ERA since then? 3.98. That is only the third-best ERA in the Ozzie League during that period. Same pitchers, with the exceptions of some quality additions, and yet they're over a run and a half WORSE. Go figure.

Sonny Gray became the first Cowtipper in history to toss a no-hitter earlier this year. He is sporting a 5.10 ERA over the past four chapters. Jon Gray was an all-star this year. His ERA since the end of Chapter One: 4.43. Mike Clevinger was the ace of the Akron staff before we acquired him. With Salem, he's just 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA over 62+ innings. Max Scherzer, Chapter One's Pitcher of the Chapter, is just 9-7 with a 3.60 ERA since then.

Stephen Strasburg, Scherzer, Clevinger, Sonny Gray, and Jon Gray, on paper, may be the greatest starting rotation ever assembled in the BDBL. Combined, they are just 37-34 with a 4.13 ERA over the past four chapters.

Lastly, there is the defense. We rank dead-last in the entire BDBL in fielding percentage (.979), and own a comfortable lead in errors. In fact, as of this writing, we're the only team in the BDBL with over 100 errors -- with 28 games left to play this season. Shohei Ohtani is a tremendous liability in the field no matter where we play him. He posted a .951 fielding percentage at first base (14 errors in 48 games started.) We then moved him to right field this past chapter, where he has already committed more errors (5) in 24 starts than any other outfielder on our roster has committed all season. In addition to the errors, Ohtani has atrocious range, takes bad routes to balls, and costs us several hits and runs just by being so godawful with the glove. Yet, because he owns the second-highest OPS on our team against right-handers, it's difficult not to include him in the lineup.

And then there is Alex Colome. In 55 innings, poor Alex has yet to record a put-out. He has only one assist. Yet, somehow, some way, in five total chances in the field, he has committed FOUR errors. Seriously. You can look it up.

Overall, the Cowtippers own the best runs differential in the McGowan Division -- and second-highest in the Ozzie League -- and yet we trail the Joplin Miners by two games. Our Pythagorean Difference of minus-6 is currently the worst in the Ozzie League, thanks in large part to our 19-24 record in one-run games. We lead the entire BDBL in blown leads after seven innings, with thirteen. No other team has more than ten. Yet, oddly enough, our bullpen ranks among the top five teams in the BDBL in lowest inherited runners scoring percentage, and in the middle of the pack in blown saves and blown save percentage. We simply have run into bad luck. Again and again and again and again.

As always, we discovered some incredibly aggravating new ways to lose baseball games in Chapter Five:

  • In our first of three losses against the Joplin Miners, Dan Vogelbach -- who had just been picked up off of the free agent garbage dump -- hit a home run off of Stephen Strasburg to take the lead. That ended up being the winning run of the game, as Joplin won by a score of 3-2.
  • In the third game of that series, we took a 4-2 lead in the first inning, and cruised into the seventh inning, up 5-2. The wheels then fell off the bus when #7 and #8 hitters Danny Santana and pinch hitter Justin Smoak hit an RBI triple and double, respectively. Taylor Guilbeau and Jon Gray then loaded the bases in the eighth inning, and wife-beater Marcell Ozuna followed with a grand slam home run, putting the game away.
  • Facing the lowly Darien Blue Wave, someone named Houser somehow managed to hold our offense to just one run over seven innings. The Darien bullpen then tossed two near-perfect innings of relief to close out the 3-1 win.
  • One of our many one-run losses came at the hands of the lowly Iron Spider Pigs, who managed to SHUT OUT our offense with the combined effort of Merrill Kelly and some guys named Irvin, Fairbanks, Brogdon, and Suarez. We racked up eight hits and five walks, and failed to score a single run. We left a whopping ELEVEN runners on base.
  • Against Bear Country, we carried a slim 7-6 lead into the eighth inning...and proceeded to serve up SIX runs. Clevinger, pitching in emergency relief, somehow managed to allow four runs to score on five hits and a walk...all while recording just one single out.
  • We lost a game against Los Altos when Sean Doolittle -- our most reliable relief pitcher and best pitcher against lefties -- allowed a walk-off seeing-eye squibbler up the middle to lefty Joc Pederson.
  • We carried a 4-0 lead into the fifth inning of the fourth game of that series, only to watch our pitching staff implode yet again in the late innings. We clung to a 6-5 lead heading into the eighth...and then watched in helplessness as FIVE runs crossed the plate.
Not only aren't we hitting or pitching well overall, but we're doing incredibly poorly in clutch situations. In late innings (7-9), when the score is within two runs or fewer, only five teams in the entire BDBL own a lower OPS than our .683 in that situation. When the score is tied in those late innings, our OPS drops to .608. When we're down by one run, our OPS in late innings is...get this...509! That is the same OPS as the South Philly Gritty!

We own a .727 OPS overall. With runners in scoring position, our OPS drops to .722. With two outs and RISP, it's .715.

Now, let's do pitching. Our overall team OPS allowed is .682. In innings 7-9, that OPS rises to .690. If the score is within two runs, our OPS is .689. Within one run: .698. With the score tied, it's just .525 -- best in the BDBL! But...if we're ahead in the late innings, watch out! If we lead by one, our OPS allowed jumps to a whopping .818! That's the fifth-worst in the league! If we're ahead by two, it's .723. With runners in scoring position, we allow a .729 OPS.

I don't know what to do about any of this. It is what it is. Improving this team via trade is no longer an option. Even if it were, the trades I've made to date have not improved this team whatsoever. We have 28 games to make up a two-game deficit. If we do, I do not feel confident at all about this team's chances in the postseason. If we don't, it's the most ridiculous thing that I've ever experienced in 22 seasons of playing in the BDBL.