Regardless of how it ends, 2018 will be remembered as a disappointment. This looked like it would be better than a 93-win team when we began the season. Our failure to live up to expectations rests primarily with our performance in one-run games. We finished the season with a record of 21-23 in those tight games, thanks in large part to a bullpen that had an uncanny knack of imploding at the worst-possible times. Had we won only a handful of those games, this year-in-review would have a much different tone.
2018 will also be remembered for the extraordinary number of bone-headed trades I made throughout the season, from beginning to end. It was, by far, the worst year of my 20-year career as GM of this franchise. When it comes to trading, our motto is "Don't Do Stupid Shit." And yet we did -- again and again and again.
The stupid shit began with our very first trade of the season when we sent Blake Parker and Martin Prado to the Flagstaff Outlaws in exchange for Mike Leake. The thinking at the time was that Leake would provide some much-needed innings at a price that we would not have been able to replicate in the auction. His free agent status at the end of this season also meant that we would be off the hook for his contract. Leake did give us innings -- over 200 of them -- but he also posted a useless 4.85 ERA on the season, allowed more hits than innings, and gave us only 15 quality starts. Parker, meanwhile, led the entire BDBL in saves.
Our next stupid trade was sending Jorge Soler to the Granite State Lightning in exchange for Luis Perdomo. The trade itself wasn't bad, since neither Soler nor Perdomo amounted to much. What made it stupid was when we signed Perdomo to a two-year contract at $3 and $4 million. Just to rub additional salt in our wound, Perdomo logged just 44.2 innings in MLB with a 7.05 ERA. Had he pitched just five fewer innings, we could have released him without penalty.
We shopped Hyun-Jin Ryu to every team in the BDBL last winter, and finally found a taker in Bart Chinn. Chinn was rewarded with a pitcher who tossed 82+ innings in MLB with a microscopic ERA of 1.97. Although the player we received in that deal, Matt Joyce, had a terrific season, we'd rather have Ryu at the bargain-basement salary of $100,000.
Our stupid shit continued when Mike Ries took over the Granite State Lightning franchise and we made the same offer to him that we had made countless time to the franchise's former owner, Ryan Glander. Unlike Ryan, Ries listened to me when I said his franchise would be better off without Sonny Gray and his albatross of a contract. If only I had listened to my own advice. Gray (4.90 ERA in MLB) will cost us a whopping $4.6 million to occupy a spot on our reserve roster next season. Worst yet, we can't even cut him, since he's signed through 2021 (at salaries of $6.1M and $7.6M).
Oh, but wait. I'm not done. I saved the best for last. Back in late June, when we were still entertaining fantasies of winning the division, the Niagara Locks were shopping Max Kepler. Because Odubel Herrera was such an unexpected disappointment all season, we needed a strong left-handed bat in center field. I sent Locks GM Mike Ranney a bunch of names I was willing to trade for Kepler, and he responded with one I hadn't listed: Wander Franco. Since Franco was only 16 years old and hadn't yet swung a bat in a professional game, I figured why not? Within a month, Franco shot up the prospect lists into the top 20 and became one of the hottest prospects in baseball. As for Kepler, he posted a batting average and OBP that was nearly identical to Herrera's. Oh, and we will now pay a $1.5 million penalty just to get rid of him this winter.
The Good
We didn't always make shitty trades. In fact, one time we traded somebody named Austin Bergner for Jose Ramirez. True story. You can look it up. Ramirez was, without a doubt, our MVP this season. He hit .306/.371/.538 with 58 doubles, 24 home runs, 112 runs scored, and a team-leading 123.1 runs created. He also swiped 17 bases for good measure and played an above-average second base.
Gary Sanchez led the team with 40 home runs and 104 ribbies and created 109.1 runs. Matt Joyce (.241/.344/.506) ranked #2 on the team in homers, with 28, despite playing almost exclusively against right-handers.
Coming off his career-worst season (5.10 ERA), Stephen Strasburg gave us (arguably) his best season to date. In 191+ innings, he posted a 15-4 record and a 2.25 ERA. He should earn a few Cy Young votes this winter. In the bullpen, we couldn't have asked for more from Mike Montgomery (12-7, 2.21 ERA in 142+ IP), Brad Brach (2.06 ERA in 52+ IP as a 'Tipper), and Tommy Hunter (1.53 ERA in 47 IP for Salem.)
Along with Strasburg, our other franchise pitcher, Jon Gray, also had a stellar season in 2018. In 119+ innings, he went 7-6 with a 2.86 ERA. Unfortunately, it looks like it will be back to the bottom of the rotation for him in 2019.
The Bad
Not only was Sonny Gray a costly pickup for us this year, but his performance (6-3, 4.32 ERA in 75 IP for Salem) hardly warrants the expense. In particular, his numbers against lefties (.312/.368/.532) had no resemblance whatsoever to his MLB numbers (.221/.293/.352). He allowed 6 home runs to left-handers in just 141 at-bats (compared to 7 HR allowed in 281 AB in MLB -- in a much more homer-friendly ballpark.)
We may have a scoreboard problem in Salem. For years, the centerfield scoreboard in Sam Adams Stadium featured the serious game face of Stephen Strasburg. Stras had such an awful 2017 BDBL season we figured we'd change our luck by featuring Andrew Benintendi on that board this season. Benny's rookie season didn't exactly go as planned. He hit just .241/.315/.372 (compared to his MLB numbers of .271/.352/.424.) He hit just 15 home runs (compared to 20 in MLB), and created just 59 runs (compared to 88.1 in MLB.)
Odubel Herrera's splits were backwards in 2018. In MLB, he hit .288/.323/.471 against left-handers and .279/.326/.445 vs. righties. In the BDBL, he hit .312/.368/.426 against lefties and just .239/.295/.367 against righties. If his numbers against right-handers were anywhere NEAR his MLB numbers, we'd still own Wander Franco today.
Like Benintendi, we expected more from Trea Turner in his first full season in the BDBL. Instead, he hit just .248 (nearly 40 points lower than MLB), hit just .183/.231/.211 against lefties, posted a meager OBP of .318 against righties, and hit just 5 home runs (less than half his MLB total.) Most bizarre of all, he was also caught stealing a whopping dozen times in 37 attempts. His 68% success rate paled in comparison to his MLB rate of 85%.
The Ugly
Raisel Iglesias' performance in 2018 defies explanation. In fact, if you were to point a finger at one single player and claim he lost the division for us, Iglesias would be that player. He managed to lose 10 games for us -- which is no easy feat for a relief pitcher. It could even be a BDBL record! Despite pitching in a MUCH friendlier home ballpark, Iglesias' numbers in the BDBL are nowhere near his MLB numbers. His ERA (3.80) is nearly 1.5 points higher than his MLB number. He allowed nearly three times as many home runs in the BDBL as he did in MLB. His numbers against lefties (.287/.355/.553) make him look like an entirely different pitcher than his MLB counterpart (.256/.360/.349.) I shudder to think how many longballs he'll surrender in 2019.
Another baffling performance came from Pedro Strop. His BDBL ERA (5.20) is well over two runs higher than his MLB ERA (2.83). He allowed far more hits and walks than he did in MLB, and his OBP against lefthanders (.353) is nowhere near his MLB number (.265).
All season long, we asked ourselves: what the fuck is wrong with Mitch Moreland? That question remains unsolved. Only a Chapter Six surge saved him from posting a batting average below .200. He finished the season at .207/.269/.371 overall, and hit just .203/.257/.377 against righties (compared to .246/.324/.460 in MLB.) So, what the fuck is wrong with Mitch Moreland? Your guess is as good as mine.
We were beyond thrilled to have landed Yoenis Cespedes for "only" $5.5 million in last winter's free agent auction. We figured not only would he be an asset for us in 2018, but that we were "buying low" on a player who topped 30 homers in the previous two MLB seasons and still had plenty of upside potential at age 32. Boy were we wrong. Not only did Cespedes spend nearly the entire 2018 MLB season on the DL (but managing to get just enough PA's to kick in his contract for next year), but he was all but useless to us this season. He hit just .239/.286/.414 overall, with barely half the number of home runs (9) as he hit in MLB. We were especially counting on his bat against left-handers, but he hit just .214/.245/.480 against them instead. And thanks to his Type-H salary, we get the privilege of signing him to a two-year contract in a few weeks.
Looking Ahead to 2019
Although our 2018 season may not be over just yet, it never hurts to look ahead. Unfortunately, there isn't much to look forward to in 2019. We thought we had suffered an unusual rash of injuries on our pitching staff heading into the 2018 season, but this year we took the art of being injured to a whole new level.
Jose Quintana managed to pitch a whopping 174 innings in MLB this season. Jon Gray tossed 172 innings in MLB this season (posting a 5.12 ERA.) Believe it or not, out of the NINE starting pitchers we have on our roster, those are the only two pitchers who topped 160 innings this season. The next-highest total is Stephen Matz's 154 innings. Then we have three pitchers (Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez, and Sonny Gray) in the 130's. We can squeeze a full season's worth of innings from the pitchers we have only if we include Mike Montgomery's 124 and Felix Pena's 93.
Our bullpen is well-stocked with live arms like Richard Rodriguez (69 IP, 2.47 ERA), Pedro Strop (60 IP, 2.26), Matt Grace (60 IP, 2.87), and Jonathan Holder (66, 3.14). We will likely use yet another injured pitcher, Shohei Ohtani (52 IP, 3.31 ERA) out of the bullpen as well.
Offensively, it seems as though the entire team did as much as they could to destroy their season's worth of effort with the shittiest September possible. Jose Ramirez was hitting over .300 as late as August 19th. He then proceeded to hit .167 the rest of the way, dragging his overall average down to .270. His overall numbers (.270/.387/.552) are still decent, but no longer MVP-caliber.
Eugenio Suarez was also hitting .300 (with a .941 OPS) on August 14th. He hit .236 (with a .756 OPS) the rest of the way. His overall numbers (.283/.356/.526) are also decent, but no longer MVP-caliber.
Andrew Benintendi (.290/.366/.465) and Trea Turner (.271/.344/.416) should be above-average with the bats as well. Odubel Herrera was looking like a potential batting champ in April. He finished the month with a .343 average, and saw it rise to .361 through the middle of May. Then he turned back into a pumpkin and hit .216 the rest of the way. He's a borderline keeper at this point.
Other than that, we have nothing. Gary Sanchez was supposed to be the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Instead, he's as horrible with the bat as he is behind the plate. At best, we can use him against lefties (.229/.354/.518), but we now have to find another catcher, since our backup, Travis d'Arnaud, missed almost the entire season with an injury.
Of course, we can't even use our best hitter in the starting lineup! Shohei Ohtani (.313/.387/1.043) will be the league's best pinch hitter.
At this point, 2019 is looking like a rebuilding year. But you never know.
