2024 Winter Trades

We began this winter with so many issues, it seemed that rebuilding in 2024 was our only option. My first order of business was putting our best trading chit, Framber Valdez, on the Selling forum to see what the market looked like.

Mostly, it looked like crickets chirping alone in the dark.

So, I pivoted to "compete" mode. The problem with pivoting is that it required dumping a ton of salary. In order to do so, I'd have to sacrifice the future, and I wasn't willing to sacrifice the best of our prospects to make that happen. Fortunately, I found a way to make it work.

***

Trade #1: Traded Ranger Suarez, Kyle Teel, and Wade Meckler to Philadelphia for Kutter Crawford.

At $10 million in salary and suspect MLB numbers (especially given the huge difference between MLB and BDBL numbers last year), Suarez was the biggest albatross hanging around my neck this winter. In order for me to have any shot of competing in 2024, I simply needed to dump that salary. Unfortunately, it came at a very steep cost. But then, doesn't it always?

Teel was a steal for us in the midseason farm draft last summer. He hit the ground running and posted phenomenal numbers in his pro debut. For better or worse, though, he was expendable due to the presence of Adley Rutschman and Ethan Salas on the Mulligans roster. With the DH, we have room for two catchers, but not three. Sacrificing Teel was an evil necessity, but an easy decision due to that traffic jam behind our plate.

Meckler was a much more difficult decision. I stand by my original assessment when we first signed him last summer: he will have a Wade Boggs-like career. Sacrificing two prospects of such high quality was difficult, but getting Crawford in exchange softens the blow a bit. The former Cowtippers prospect looked good last year, and is still young enough to have some upside.

Trade #2: Traded David Bednar and A.J. Minter to Flagstaff for Ricky Tiedemann and Jarlin Susana.

We won a championship in 2019 thanks in large part to our dominant bullpen. A dominant bullpen carried the Los Altos Undertakers to their fifth championship last month. Darien and Charlotte also enjoyed great success last year thanks to their bullpens. Trust me, I know how important quality bullpens are. Unfortunately, we have a much bigger issue we needed to address this winter, and sacrificing two quality bullpen arms was an absolute necessity.

That issue was simply this: we had no pitching whatsoever beyond the 2024 BDBL season. Shohei Ohtani will not pitch the entire 2024 MLB season and may never pitch again. We lost Jon Gray to free agency, and Framber Valdez is a free agent at the end of this season. We also lost Luis Garcia to an injury that will rob him of his entire 2024 MLB season as well. The only starter remaining on the Mulligans roster was JP Sears, and he remains an enigma.

Starting pitching is incredibly expensive. It is also incredibly difficult to predict which of today's mediocre pitchers will become tomorrow's aces. Two years ago, no one could have predicted that Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, Justin Steele, Zach Eflin, and Pablo Lopez would all be top-ten pitchers. Yet, here we are.

Needless to say, we need to add as many quality arms as possible to our roster, ASAP, and just pray that one or two of them becomes the next Spencer Strider. Tiedemann is as good a bet as any. He missed most of last year with an injury, but was considered a top-ten prospect previously and had a strong showing in the AFL. He could be that future ace we're looking for. The huge and hard-throwing Susana is icing on the cake.

Trade #3: Traded Mark Canha and Ryan Noda to Lake Norman for Marcus Stroman, Daniel Bard, and Josh Royas.

I had Canha penciled in as the everyday center fielder in 2024, and Noda as our platoon against lefties. I wasn't thrilled with either one, though, and Canha's $6.5 million salary was a tough pill to swallow. Trading for the $10 million Stroman meant we were adding a decent 130-IP starting pitcher for a difference in salary of "only" $3.5 million. Add the two penalties from Bard and Rojas and that made him a $4.7 million pitcher.

I took a look at the 2024 free agent market very early on and determined that I wanted no part of it -- at least in terms of filling a starting pitcher slot. There are only a handful of free agent starters available who have 150+ innings, and nearly every one of them will get a Type H salary due to the low supply and high demand. Adding a pitcher of Stroman's quality for under $5 million was a no-brainer.

***

At this point in the game, I had managed to cut $10.2 million in salary. That gave me enough cap space to fill the gaping holes in our roster: one quality reliever, half of a quality starter, a 1B against lefties, a full-time second baseman, and an outfielder against righties.

I could have sat tight at that point. In fact, I thought I was done trading for the winter. However, I was still worried about our starting rotation in 2025 and beyond. Other than Tiedemann, and possibly Sears and Crawford, we had nothing. I did not want to be stuck filling those gaping holes through expensive and aging free agents. I began looking for a way to swap Valdez and/or Stroman for young arms we could use down the road. That's when the Highland Freedom came calling.

***

Trade #4: Traded Framber Valdez, Daniel Bard, and Josh Rojas to Highland for MacKenzie Gore and Casey Mize.

Like Tiedemann, Gore and Mize were considered to be among the top pitching prospects in the game not that long ago. They have come nowhere near fulfilling that potential, but that doesn't mean a thing in the prospect game. They both have the stuff to succeed. They just need to put it all together.

Obviously, losing Valdez leaves an enormous hole in our starting rotation. However, we now have enough money to fill that hole through free agency if we want to do so. At least now it is an option. Unlike Valdez, whoever we sign will be with us for two more years after this one, which solves our 2025+ problem.

Trade #5: Traded Luis Garcia to Flagstaff for Aidan Miller.

I was on the fence about keeping Garcia. He is owed $1.1 million this year, but won't pitch hardly at all. Next year, we'd have to pay him $2.1 million not to pitch. Which means he would only pitch a full season (maybe) in 2026, at a salary of $3.1 million. Granted, he could be an absolute bargain at that point. However, I regretted giving up Miller in the first place, and I'm happy to have him back. It saves us an additional $1.1 million, and it allows us to now trade one of our three third base prospects. Which brings us to...

Trade #6: Traded Marcus Stroman and Brayden Taylor to Virginia for Jesse Chavez.

Although I only paid $4.5 million for Stroman, I realized that freeing his salary was worth more to this franchise than the 130 innings he would pitch for us in 2024. With that, I tried to market him based on his 2024 BDBL value, which should be significant, especially in this shallow pitcher's market. I received no bites, even when I offered to take back unwanted salary to soften the blow of his $10 million salary. So, I switched tactics. Instead of selling Stroman's 2024 BDBL value, I sold Brayden Taylor's future value as a prospect. The addition of Miller made Taylor expendable.

Tony Badger took the offer and added Chavez to our bullpen as well. It's a win-win for both teams. I really like Taylor, and believe he can have many .300/.400/.500 MLB seasons ahead of him. But with Brock Wilken and Miller on our farm, and several shortstops who could likely move to third base, he was a luxury we didn't need. (Of course, I remember saying the same exact thing about Alex Bregman at one point.)

Trade #7: Traded Travis Sykora to Jacksonville for Michael Lorenzen.

After trading Valdez and Stroman, we were about 300 innings shy of having enough innings from starting pitchers to get through this season. Lorenzen brings that number down to 150, which is what we feel will be attainable in this auction/draft.

***

I started out this winter with no direction and no money. Now, I have both. Our direction is very simple. We are looking to compete in 2024. If that fails to happen in the first few chapters, we will bail and look to 2025. I began this winter with a budget of around $5 million for 15 players. I now have over $26 million to spend. That puts the Florida Mulligans in play for arguably the best auction pool we've seen in a decade or more.

2023: Season in Review

Final record: 83-77 (.519)
Record excluding Chapter Two: 62-70 (.470)
Record excluding Chapter Five: 76-56 (.576)
Record excluding both chapters: 55-49 (.529)

So...were we a good team, a bad team, or a mediocre team? Beats the fuck out of me.

Rafael Devers, MLB '22: .295/.358/.521, 42 2B, 27 HR, 739/931
Rafael Devers, BDBL '23: .237/.317/.419, 34 2B, 21 HR, 728/740

Not even close. Not even remotely the same player. On the bell curve, we're talking about four standard deviations to the left. Off the chart.

Shohei Ohtani, MLB '22: .273/.356/.519, 34 HR, 788/921
Shohei Ohtani, BDBL '23: .231/.320/.410, 20 HR, 720/736

Again, not even close. Not the same player. Four standard deviations to the left. Statistically impossible.

Ranger Suarez, MLB '22: 3.65 ERA, 8.6 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 537/756
Ranger Suarez, BDBL '23: 6.44 ERA, 10.9 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 678/1.027

Nowhere near the same player. Not even remotely resembling the same player. Actual MLB statistics completely irrelevant. Game is broken.

Framber Valdez, MLB '22: 2.82 ERA, 7.4 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 505/620
Framber Valdez, BDBL '23: 3.96 ERA, 9.5 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 885/719

Okay, somewhat resembles the actual Framber Valdez if you ignore all the hits and those ridiculous splits. The "Framber Valdez" in the BDBL can't get lefties out to save his life. So, is he actually Framber Valdez? Or is he some bargain-basement Aldi's-brand knock-off? Because I acquired the actual Framber Valdez under the premise that he would actually be THE Framber Valdez.

Statistically speaking, it's mathematically possible that one of these four players could have shit the bed this dramatically. Let's call it a one-in-a-million chance that it could happen. What are the odds that ALL FOUR players could have shit the bed this badly? It's way above one in a billion. I would say it's statistically impossible. Which means this game is broken. Utter bullshit. What a waste of time this entire season was.

On to 2024, so we can repeat this bullshit all over again.

2024: Go For It? Or Rebuild?

The 2023 MLB season has officially come to an end, which means it is now time for us to look forward to the 2024 BDBL season and decide whether we're going to go all-in or rebuild. First, let's do some inventory.

Lineup vs. LH:

C Adley Rutschman: .304/.414/.481
LF Aaron Hicks: .349/.446/.524
RF Lane Thomas: .331/.375/.573
2B Nick Senzel: .347/.389/.619
CF Mark Canha: .264/.361/.464
DH Shohei Ohtani: .245/.358/.532
3B Rafael Devers: .273/.335/.488
1B Ryan Noda: .200/.340/.413
SS Trea Turner: .229/.295/.426

The top half of this lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Noda's numbers against left-handers took a nosedive in September. He was a very strong asset a month ago. Today, he's a borderline cut. Turner got off to an infamously slow start before busting out in the second half. But he, too, fell into the toilet in September, making him mostly useless to us next year.

There are teams in the BDBL right now who are leading their divisions with weaker lineups than this one. Of course, all of this depends on the BDBL numbers resembling these MLB numbers even remotely. As we've seen this year, that doesn't always happen.

Lineup vs. RH:

C Adley Rutschman: .267/.359/.419
DH Shohei Ohtani: .327/.431/.701
3B Rafael Devers: .270/.357/.505
1B Brandon Belt: .256/.375/.515
SS Trea Turner: .282/.331/.472
RF Lane Thomas: .242/.292/.427
CF Mark Canha: .261/.350/.369
LF Andrew Benintendi: .261/.327/.343
2B: TBD

Again, the top half of the lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Benintendi has been a disappointment from day one, and he's only become more and more useless every year. I listed Senzel as a second baseman against lefties, but it is very likely that he won't be rated at that position. If that happens, we have no second baseman against lefties AND righties. We had that same problem this year, and we've all seen the results of that.

Overall, the lineup against lefties and righties needs help.

Starting rotation:

1. Framber Valdez: 198 IP, 166 H, 19 HR, 57 BB, 200 K
2. Shohei Ohtani: 132 IP, 85 H, 18 HR, 55 BB, 167 K
3. Ranger Suarez: 125 IP, 129 H, 13 HR, 48 BB, 119 K
4. JP Sears: 172 IP, 165 H, 34 HR, 53 BB, 161 K
5. Alex Faedo: 65 IP, 48 H, 12 HR, 20 BB, 58 K

Yikes. Framber's numbers are similar to his numbers a year ago, and we've all seen how he has struggled in the BDBL all season. Ohtani should be great, but very limited in usage. Then, our rotation swirls down the toilet. In an ideal world, I would never want to start Suarez or Sears under any circumstance. Sears allowed 34 homers in the cavernous Oakland home park. How many would he allow in our park? 50? 60?

Bullpen:

David Bednar: 67 IP, 53 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 80 K
Ian Hamilton: 58 IP, 45 H, 2 HR, 26 BB, 82 K
AJ Minter: 65 IP, 56 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 82 K
Robert Stephenson: 52 IP, 30 H, 8 HR, 16 BB, 77 K
Dauri Moreta: 58 IP, 39 H, 4 HR, 24 BB, 76 K
Kyle Nelson: 56 IP, 59 H, 12 HR, 14 BB, 67 K

This is a decent bullpen. I would be happy heading into a season with this bullpen. We're about 35 innings short on usage, but that shouldn't be difficult to find.

Next, let's take a look at the money situation. Assuming we don't have any more penalties for over-use (and that is always an issue regardless of how diligent I am), here's where we stand:

22 players, at a total of $56.6 million.

Which leaves: $6.9 million for 13 players.

Again, I say: Yikes. In order to contend in 2024, we would need to fill two gaping holes: a starting pitcher and a second baseman. $6.9 million could not buy ONE of those two players, never mind two. Unless we dump some salary, there is no way we could fill those holes through free agency.

Whose salary would we want to dump? We could start with Ranger Suarez, who will make $10 million for being a part-time, mostly-useless, bum. No one in the league would take his salary unless we parted with a prospect along the lines of Wyatt Langford or Ethan Salas. And that ain't happening.

I would love to dump Benintendi, but he is a franchise player. (I stupidly signed him to a longer contract than Trea Turner.) Turner, in his final year under contract, would be another guy I would like to dump, but he, too, is franchised. Mark Canha ($6.5M) and Brandon Belt ($6.5) are overpaid for what they contribute, but would be tough to trade. Trading them would also create two more gaping holes in our lineup.

Honestly, it's hard to believe the salaries of these players add up to $56.6 million. I just had to double-check that, it's so incredible. But it's true.

Go For It

If we decide to go for it, it will require tremendous sacrifice. Langford and Salas are untouchable. We also can't afford to move Brooks Lee, as this is Turner's final year under contract and Lee is likely to slide right into our shortstop slot next year. That leaves prospects like Brock Wilken, Chase Dollander, Brandon Taylor, and Kyle Teel. We love those guys, but I'm guessing most people in the league don't even know who they are.

Going for it will require too much sacrifice. I'm not willing to trade away the future of this franchise for a longshot -- especially when we've already seen how this game can't be trusted to simulate reality in the first place.

Rebuild

Let's say we decide to rebuild. Who could we move in trade to get pieces for our future? Benintendi, Devers, Ohtani, and Turner are all franchised, so they can't be moved. That leaves Valdez as our number one trading chit, and he would fetch quite a lot in return. David Bednar, Aaron Hicks, AJ Minter, and Nick Senzel could fetch a good amount in trade as well. Ian Hamilton, Dauri Moreta, and Lane Thomas have trade value, but also have some possible future value.

Let's say we traded Valdez, Bednar, Hicks, Minter, and Senzel. Of the five, only Bednar is signed beyond 2024, so we lose nothing going forward. We would free $13.6 million in salary, which we could use to sign free agents with future value. We could snag several players in trade that could combine with Devers, Ohtani, Turner, Rutschman, and possibly Lee, to form a strong 2025 team. Our greatest need would be starting pitching, which we could easily fill through trade and free agency.

Go For It? Or Rebuild?

It seems ridiculous to throw in the towel on a team that includes Adley Rutschman, Rafael Devers, Trea Turner, Framber Valdez, and Shohei Ohtani. Yet, we had those same players this year and we're struggling to finish with a .500 record. Having great players is no guarantee of success in the BDBL. You also have to have a heaping pile of luck on your side -- which has never happened in our franchise's history.

At this point, I'm leaning toward throwing in the towel. I will stick my finger in the air and see which direction the wind is blowing. If I'm tempted enough, I will blow this mother-F'er up. If not, maybe I will wait until the middle of the 2024 season to do so.

Chapter Five Autopsy

In lieu of the usual chapter review, I present the chapter autopsy. In my 25 seasons of playing this game, this has been, by far, the dumbest of all seasons. It is so insanely dumb that if it had happened in our first season, there wouldn't have been a second. The only thing stopping me from quitting this game and spending more quality time with my family is my BDBL family.

As I have written here before, the underlying premise of this game is that the players on our team will perform somewhat like the real players themselves. We allow for a good deal of wiggle room due to random fluctuations on the bell curve. But in general, our players should mostly resemble their real-life selves. Otherwise, what's the fucking point?

We are now 83% into our season. Any huge random fluctuations should have been ironed out by now. Yet, as I type, Shohei Ohtani and Rafael Devers -- two of the best hitters in baseball a year ago -- are sitting at 29 homers combined. They hit 61 combined in MLB last year. They will need to double their output in the next 28 games to get to that number. If they hit even half that many home runs next chapter (which would be a near-record) they would not even finish anywhere near their MLB output for the season.

Devers owns a .412 slugging percentage. Ohtani, arguably the game's greatest power hitter, sits t .381. Ranger Suarez, owner of a 3.65 ERA in MLB '22, currently sits at 6.82.What is the fucking point of this?

Two chapters into this season, we owned the best record of any team in the BDBL not named the Los Altos Undertakers. We sat comfortably in first-place in our division by three games. At the all-star break, we owned a sizeable four-game lead in the OL wildcard race and sat just one game out of the division lead. Heading into this chapter, we shared the wildcard lead.

Today, one chapter later, we are so far out of the wildcard lead (six games) that a playoffs spot is highly-unlikely. We went 21-7 in Chapter Two. In Chapter Five, we went 7-21. This is the SAME TEAM, folks! We didn't trade anyone. In fact, we added a few players to our roster through trade that were supposed to help this team win.

2023 has become a lost season for the Florida Mulligans. We came into this season with sky-high expectations, based on the fact that we owned so many great hitters, a one-two punch of Ohtani and Valdez in the starting rotation, and a decent bullpen. All of that has gone out the window. As we now look forward to 2024, I see plenty of reasons to believe we can contend. However, given what we've witnessed this year, it seems that having great players on your roster doesn't matter when those players don't perform anywhere near their MLB numbers. So, again, what's the fucking point of this?

The Latest Additions

The final trading deadline of the year came and went without any major deal on our part. We did manage to pick up one more arm for the bullpen. I have no doubt whatsoever that Dany Jimenez will be every bit as effective and productive as our last bullpen acquisition, Chase De Jong. And yes, that is sarcasm.

I did everything I could to make a Nic Weiss "arbitrage"-like deal. Luis Garcia is done for the MLB season and is having a terrific BDBL season. I figured I could get something for him. Maybe unload a bad contract. But no. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. So, I now look forward to cutting him in December.

The big midseason draft allowed us to prune some dead branches of our farm system and replace them with fresh new budding young talent:

• Kyle Teel: The 14th pick in the MLB draft by the shitty Red Sox, and the 7th-best prospect in the draft according to MLB.com. He is a catcher by trade, which means he may become trade bait unless he shifts positions -- which is highly likely. He is coming off an outstanding year with Virginia (.407/.475/.655, 13 HR, 32/36 BB/K), and will likely move quickly through the minor leagues.
• Jose Perdomo: He is considered to be at or near the top of the International prospects ranking for 2024, along with our #1 pick last winter, Fernando Cruz. The scouting reports for both shortstops are nearly identical. Both are roughly the same size, are advanced hitters, top athletes, and likely to stick at shortstop.
• Wade Meckler: An 8th round draft pick in 2022, Meckler has done nothing but hit since turning pro. In 361 career pro PA's, he's slashing .375/.465/.521 with a 51/54 BB/K ratio. He has already reached the Double-A level in only his second pro season. Another guy named Wade (Boggs) hit .318/.412/.386 in his minor league career. Just sayin'.
• Jacob Cozart: Yet another catcher! Kiley McDaniel ranked Cozart as the #5 prospect in the 2024 draft, citing his "above-average defensive skills and raw power." As a sophomore at NC State, Cozart hit .301/.392/.546 with a 24/38 BB/K ratio.
• Christian Moore: This league is so ridiculous, it's become nearly impossible to find any top prospects who are eligible for a draft that is two years from now. Many of the players expected to be selected at the top of the 2025 draft are already claimed. Moore (.304/.444/.603, 17 HR), an outfielder with the University of Tennessee, is one of those prospects.
• Yuki Matsui: One of the best and most consistent relievers in Japan, the 27-year-old Matsui is eligible to come to the US following this season. This year, he has posted a 0.55 ERA in 32+ innings, allowing just one home run and five wallks, while striking out 44. For his career, he owns a 2.41 ERA, with only 5.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 12.1 K/9.

Chapter Four Review

It was fun while it lasted. Our 2023 season unofficially came to an end this chapter, as it has become crystal clear that the Florida Mulligans will never reach the potential we have this season. This season reminds me in so many ways of the 2021 season, when we had the best pitching staff (by far) in the entire BDBL and somehow managed to avoid the playoffs. On paper, this year's team should be good enough to win a spot in the playoffs -- if not a division title. Instead, we're barely scraping by.

We finished Chapter Four with an abysmal 10-14 record. Set aside our bizarre Chapter Two, in which we went 21-7, and we're a .500 team (38-38) the rest of this season. I believe .500 is the true representatation of this team's ability. That second chapter was a drastic outlier.

This team's under-performance can be blamed squarely on three factors:

1. Shohei Ohtani may win the OL Cy Young award this year. He may even win the league MVP. But he has been an abysmal failure at the plate for us this year. Through 102 games and 382 at-bats, he has managed to hit just 12 homers. He is on pace to hit just 18 this year, which is nowhere near the 34 homers he hit in MLB a year ago. What is the point of having Shohei Ohtani in your lineup if he doesn't hit like the actual, real, Shohei Ohtani? I have no idea who this imposter is, but he's nothing like the real deal.

2. Rafael Devers is the absolute worst, most disappointing player, I have ever managed in my 25-year career. His BDBL numbers (.232/.308/.381, 10 HR) are nowhere near his MLB numbers (.295/.358/.521, 27 HR.) We expected him to be useless against left-handers, and yet he's been better than expected. His problem is right-handed pitching, bizarrely enough. In MLB, he hit .304/.375/.557 against righties. This year, he's hitting just .215/.291/.354. Again, what is the point of having a top-30 hitter in our lineup if he performs like a bottom-30?

3. We have seen many, many, many teams in the BDBL's recent past who have had no-name, no-nothing, bullpens that performed extraordinarily well in the BDBL. We have a bullpen filled with no-name no-nothings, and yet we can't catch a break with any of them. They all suck. Carl Edwards (6.46) and Chase De Jong (6.49) have pitched worse than any position player in baseball. On the starting side, Ranger Suarez (6.49) and J.P. Sears (6.57) have been worse than useless. Before the game even begins, I know we're going to lose when those two are on the mound. Automatic losses. All four pitchers own ERA's over three runs higher than their MLB ERA's. Again, what is the point of having pitchers with good MLB numbers if they don't translate to the BDBL?

I am officially done trying to compete this year. Especially in this environment with the Undertakers running away with yet another BDBL title, there is no point in trying to improve this shit sandwich of a team. I have tried, and continue to try, to trade whatever I can for future value, but the trade market is abysmal this year.

We're now tied with the Ravenswood Infidels in the OL wildcard. The Infidels gave up on the season a few weeks ago, but then turned around and added a pitcher for this year. So who the hell knows what Skizm is up to. The direction of his team depends on the direction the wind is blowing. I know which direction we are heading: DOWN.

About That Trading Deadline

The first thing you learn when you participate in your first BDBL auction is that there is always someone -- and it only requires one person -- who is stupid enough to make an asinine decision that will ruin his franchise for years to come in order to satisfy an immediate need. Because of that, you will likely not get the player you desperately need at what anyone would consider to be a reasonable price.

The same holds true when it comes to trading. If you have your sights set on a player that fits perfectly for your team, you'd better be willing to do something extremely stupid and trade away your franchise's future or someone else will inevitably beat you to the punch.

To say that Brian "Skizm" Potrafka is a volatile character would be the understatement of the century. You never know what you will get from Skiz from one moment to the next. The only predictable part about him is that he is so unpredictable. Against all odds, he was winning his division in a tight race with the defending-champion Akron Ryche. He did not receive a single vote in preseason polling to win that division, and yet there he was enjoying a comfortable lead halfway through the season.

Last chapter, the Kansas Law Dogs placed Albert Pujols on the trading block. Pujols is exactly -- exactly -- the type of player we need in order to have any shot of winning our division and/or advancing in the playoffs. Pujols, however, is a three-chapter rental. He has no value whatsoever beyond this season. As such, I was not willing to sacrifice a significant piece of my team's future to get him. I did, however, offer several players with good value and invited Kansas GM Chris Luhning to select from ANY player on my roster, which I would then consider.

Instead of responding to my trade offer, Luhning went ahead and traded Pujols to Skizm. In fairness, I would not have offered as much as Skizm did. (See above: there is always someone willing to do something more stupid than you.) In essence, Skizm agreed to take on Zack Greinke's $6.5 million salary next season, which is something we can't afford. Still, it would have been courteous of Luhning to at least respond to my offer instead of ignoring it completely. Of course, when I called him out on that, he responded with his usual snark.

After stealing Pujols from under my nose, it took precisely fourteen days for Skizm to suddenly change his mind about the 2023 season. Despite still owning sole possession of first place in his division, he threw one of his patented temper tantrums and blew up his team. Set aside for a moment the damage that does to the league. This rant is about trading.

I made the same offer to Skizm as I did to Luhning -- opening the door to anyone on my roster. And he responded in the same snarky way as Luhning. Obviously, these people seem to believe that two chapters of Pujols is so valuable it's worth blowing up my team's future.

To be blunt: fuck that. The days of sacrificing our future for a 1,000-in-one shot at winning the trophy are over. I refuse to be pushed into making a stupid decision just because others are so willing to make stupid decisions. If I could get a sweetheart deal like the one Tony Chamra received from Skizm, that would be a no-brainer. But I'm clearly held to a different standard, so I will act accordingly.

The Florida Mulligans are good enough, as currently constituted, to win a spot in the playoffs. With the Undertakers and Blue Wave dominating at such a historic level, the odds that we would advance far into the postseason -- with or without Pujols -- are astronomical. So I plan to stand pat through the end of this season and expect an early exit in November. I'd rather lose the OLDS than lose a franchise player.

Chapter Three Review

We have played many dumb seasons over these 25 years, but none may be dumber than this one. Even the dumb-as-shit 2021 season, in which we used a projection disk and Jim Dumbledoyle's team ended up winning the championship, may not have been dumber than this one. I simply can't fathom how the same team, comprised of the same players, with the same statistics, can possibly perform so wildly different from one chapter to another -- or even one series to another. It makes zero sense. In Major League Baseball, when we see a team lose ten games in a row, and then win ten in a row (or vice versa) there is a reason for it. Usually, a star player is injured or returns from injury. What's this team's excuse?

Just to review, we began this season with a record of 9-11 (.450). We then went on a 28-8 (.778) tear over our next 36 games. Then we began Chapter Three with a 5-11 (.333) record before going 7-1 (.875) in our final two series. Will the real Florida Mulligans please stand up??

You may think that our wild swings in performance are due to the strength or weakness of our schedule. But no. In Chapter Three, we were swept by the sub-.500 last-place Chicago Black Sox. We also lost three of four to the Philadelphia Fightin's, who are struggling to maintain a .400 record this season. And yet we somehow won three out of four against the (then) first-place Darien Blue Wave.

Miraculously, we currently sit in a first-place tie with the Blue Wave atop the McGowan Division. This is true despite the fact that we've played sub-.500 baseball for nearly half our season! This is true despite the fact that Darien has outscored their opponents by more than double our runs differential! This is true despite the fact that Rafael Devers, who is supposed to be one of our best hitters, is hitting just .231 and is slugging just .360. And this is true despite the fact that Framber Valdez, who is supposed to be one of the best pitchers in the league, is just 7-7 with a 4.05 ERA!

A few random player notes:

• Ranger Suarez's performance this year defies explanation. In MLB, he allowed fewer hits than innings -- an average of 8.6 per game. In the BDBL, he has allowed a whopping 99 hits in just 80+ innings -- an average of 11.1 per game! He has started 14 games this year, and has allowed more hits than innings in 10 of those games! He has allowed 9 or more hits in a game 5 times so far.
• Shohei Ohtani leads the entire BDBL with 12 wins (12-1), is currently ranked #2 in ERA in the OL (2.20), and nearly leads the league in all three triple-slash categories (.168/.240/.300). If he doesn't win the vote for OL all-star starter, something is severely wrong.
• Jon Gray (7-1, 2.59 ERA in 73 IP) has probably been the greatest (positive) surprise of this season. He probably deserves an all-star appearance as well.
• Rafael Devers (27 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 14 homers this season. Ohtani (34 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 16. The Sand Trap has a 102 HR factor for left-handed batters. Boston's factor is just 96. Anaheim's is 134. Ohtani's suppressed power is somewhat forgiveable based on that difference, but he shouldn't hit HALF as many homers in the BDBL. What excuse does Devers have? A year ago, he hit 50 home runs in the same goddamn ballpark with the same goddamn factors.
• After a very slow start, Adley Rutschman's bat has finally showed up. He hit .274/.386/.466 in Chapter Three, and finished second to only Trea Turner (.324/.387/.491) in runs created.
• Turner made 16 errors in 160 MLB games last year. This year, he's already made 11 errors in only half the number of games.
• Rafael Devers hit one home run in Chapter Three. ONE. Have I mentioned how disappointing his season has been?
• Ohtani hit just .188/.273/.323 with three homers last chapter. He may have screwed himself out of a spot in the all-star starting lineup with that performance.
• The bottom of our lineup is an absolute shit show. Wilmer Flores (.174), Aaron Hicks (.138), Jonathan Schoop (.188), Curt Casali (.077), and Lane Thomas (.143) all hit below .200 this chapter.
• Ranger Suarez was just about automatic in Chapter Three. Automatically awful. He made four starts, went 0-2, posted an 8.18 ERA, and allowed 5 homers in just 22 innings.
• The two newcomers we got from the Peaks last chapter were both lemons. I covered Flores' performance already. The other guy we got, Chase De Jong, posted a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. Meanwhile, the kid we gave up for him, Aidan Miller, is currently ranked #20 in the draft by BA.

Where do we go from here? Your guess is as good as mine. At least we're back in the hunt. I'd love to pick up at least one more bat and another bullpen arm before trading season ends. We're playing .600 ball without a first baseman or second baseman who can actually hit a baseball. Imagine what we could do with one of those!

Chapter Two Review

Now that's more like it! After getting off to a 9-11 start to this season, our Mulligans have gone a remarkable 28-8 (.778) in the 36 games since then. We finished Chapter Two with a 21-7 record, and as I type, we sit two games ahead in the McGowan Division, all alone in first place for the first time this season.

YEEEEEE-HA!

We began this chapter in the most improbable way imaginable, by sweeping our first two series against the D.C. Memorials and Cleveland Rocks. If we've ever before swept two series back-to-back in the 25 years of this franchise, that memory escapes me. We then ended the chapter with our third sweep over the Virginia Sovereigns. In between, we won two tough series against the South Carolina Sea Cats and South Loop Furies and split with the Charlotte Mustangs. The only series loss we suffered this chapter came against the last-place Las Vegas Flamingos, in a bizarre series in which our entire team simply forgot how to hit a baseball.

We actually hit worse as a team in Chapter Two than Chapter One. We scored nine fewer runs and posted a lower OPS as a whole. However, our pitching staff staged a tremendous turnaround in Chapter Two. Our 4.94 team ERA in Chapter One ranked among the bottom of the league. We walked over four batters per nine and served up 38 homers in 246 innings. In Chapter Two, we posted a miniscule 2.53 ERA, walked "just" 3.3 batters per nine, and allowed only 14 homers in 249 innings.

Our starting rotation was led, once again, by Shohei Ohtani. He went a perfect 6-0 on the chapter, which makes him 10-0 on the season. Believe it or not, his 1.57 ERA in Chapter Two ranks only THIRD on our team among starting pitchers! Jon Gray (1.32) and Luis Garcia (1.43) both topped Ohtani's mark.

On the offensive side, Trea Turner (.321/.369/.518 in Chapter One) continues to rake like an MVP candidate. Andrew Benintendi (.333/.419/.440) continued his surprising Chapter One performance into Chapter Two. Mark Canha (.281/.381/.438), the OL Hitter of the Chapter last chapter, also continues to mash.

On the plus side, Adley Rutschman (.256/.330/.476) and Rafael Devers (.265/.327/.439) both broke out of their slumps, somewhat, although they're still not hitting anywhere near as well as they should be. On the minus side, our first base platoon of David Villar (.167/.333/.389 in Chapter One) and Luis Rivas (.151/.262/.226) is just about useless.

To help address that first base issue, and also to solve our quickly-approaching usage issues, I made a deal with the Flagstaff Peaks in which we added first baseman Wilmer Flores and reliever Chase De Jong. At first glance, adding a guy who is hitting .218/.288/.406 this season hardly seems like an upgrade. However, we believe Flores will enjoy hitting in The Sand Trap, and he brings a stellar Vg glove with him as well.

De Jong currently leads the Peaks with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings. He's allowed just 13 hits and 8 walks, and has struck out 19. We have some serious usage issues in our bullpen already, so his innings will greatly help there.

In exchange, we had to part with yet another outstanding young prospect. Just add Aiden Miller's name to a LOOOOOOOONG list of prospects we regret trading. I believe this kid has the potential to be the next Austin Riley. However, we have a logjam at third base on our farm, with Brayden Taylor and Brock Wilken both having outstanding seasons in the NCAA this year. They're likely closer to the big leagues than Miller, and we have to give something to get something, so...that explains why I made that decision.

In an ideal world, that would be the last trade I make this year. I don't want to give up any more of our prospects, and we have enough usage and firepower to get by this year. I fully expect us to fall back into second place at some point over the next six weeks, but if that doesn't happen, I may be forced to make a bigger move. Time will tell.

Chapter One Review

The premise of this game we play is that the actual on-field MLB performance of each player, measured by his statistics, determines the outcomes of the events within the game. The makers of this game assure its customers that, although there can be random fluctuations in any given small sample, the outcomes on the field will be nearly 100-percent accurate given a large enough sample of simulations.

Hmm.

Over the course of 25 seasons, I have often questioned whether or not the above is actually true. I understand how confirmation bias works in the human mind. I'm also aware of the distortion caused by small samples, and how it can affect overall perception. If a single player performs far above or below his MLB performance for any given time period, I can accept this as part of the randomness of this game. But when an entire TEAM performs abnormally...something must be wrong.

Heading into our final two series of this chapter, the Florida Mulligans owned a record of 9-11. We owned the worst team ERA in the league, were outscored by our opponents on the season, and spent more than a few days in last-place in the McGowan Division. Something was wrong.

We then closed out the chapter with a series sweep against the Philadelphia Fightin's, including two walk-off wins in the tenth inning, and then shocked the entire world by taking three of four from the dominant Los Altos Undertakers in our final series of the chapter. As a result, we ended up with a pretty respectable 16-12 record, and have somehow managed to outscore our opponents by a whopping five runs.

Heading into this season, we were expected to have one of the league's best offenses, and one of the league's best pitching staffs. Half of that was true in Chapter One. We hit .264/.351/.415 in the chapter, which is decent-enough, but not as great as we expected.

The one player doing the most to drag this team down was Rafael Devers, who is no stranger to inexplicable slumps. It seems as though he has spent the majority of his BDBL career in an inexplicable slump. In Chapter One, Devers hit just .175/.246/.281. He did not hit his first home run of the season until the very last series of the chapter. In fact, the Mulligans as a team hardly hit any home runs in Chapter One. We hit just 25 as a team, which is less than half the total (57) posted by the Darien Blue Wave.

The most inexplicable part about Chapter One was the performance of our pitching staff. We own a 4.94 team ERA, which currently ranks third-from-last in the OL. The poster child for our Chapter One pitching staff was Framber Valdez. According to his MLB numbers, Valdez should be a Cy Young candidate in the BDBL. Instead, he posted a 5.71 ERA in seven starts. He allowed far more hits (52) than innings (41) and walked nearly four batters per nine. In MLB, Valdez owned a H/9 rate of just 7.4 and walked just 3.0 per nine.

In MLB, Valdez set an all-time MLB record for consecutive quality starts. In Chapter One, Valdez gave us just three quality starts in seven attempts (a rate that is roughly half his MLB rate.) In MLB, Valdez held left-handed hitters to a miniscule .192/.274/.231 batting line. In the BDBL, lefties clobbered him to the tune of .350/.458/.350.

In other words, the "Framber Valdez" who pitched for us in Chapter One bears no resemblance whatsoever to the actual Framber Valdez who actually pitches in MLB.

Valdez's MLB teammate Luis Garcia also had a miserable first chapter. He posted a 6.23 ERA in five starts, and also allowed more hits than innings. Ranger Suarez (8.56 in five starts) also had a miserable start to this season. Combined, Valdez, Garcia, and Suarez went 4-10 in Chapter One. Folks...that's not good. Those are three very good pitchers in reality. I have no idea how all three could simultaneously fall into such a slump in simulations.

Prior to those final two series, I had assumed that I would be throwing in the towel on this season. There is no point to doing so this early in the MLB season, so the plan was to wait until that season begins to form before pulling that trigger. Now that the Mulligans are finally beginning to play the way I expected they would play, I am less certain about throwing in that towel than I was last week.

We'll give it another chapter and reassess when the time comes. If we decide to go for it, we'll need a lot of help. If we decide to throw in that towel, we have some tasty trade bait to offer. Right now, I'm straddling that fence.

2023 Draft Diary

January 15

The draft is designed to break your heart. Each draft begins by targeting specific players who are identified as "must-haves." Each draft begins with targeting some players who you believe are flying under the radar, and would make excellent fliers for next year. Each draft proceeds by watching each and every one of those players disappear from your "short list," snatched up by some other person who will never love those players the same way that you would have. It is heart-breaking.

The 2023 draft has been no different. I identified several players as "must-haves" and did not get any of them. I also identified several who would make excellent fliers for next year. As I write here in the middle of the 17th round, I have seen several of those players snatched up by other teams -- two by the evilist of evil villains, Jeff Paulson. Unfortunately, I cannot take any of those fliers until I fill my starting lineup -- and I am roughly three picks away from doing so.

We desperately needed Will Myers. He filled a void at first base that no other player could possibly fill. He hits lefties, he has full-time usage, and he is excellent defensively. With only eight picks remaining before our pick, the fucking Darien Blue Wave (of all teams) snatched him away. That left us with David Villar as our platoon first baseman. Villar is fine. He hits lefties better than Myers. He plays shitty defense, though. And he doesn't have enough usage for full-time play. Which means we now have to draft yet another player to fill that usage.

I actually believed that would be the final disappointment in this draft. However, it then happened again in the very next round when Skiz Potrafka sniped Donovan Solano with the pick right before ours. Solano was going to be our first baseman, moving Villar to second base, where he's less of a liability. Not anymore.

That leaves us with a first base platoon of Villar and someone named Alfonso Rivas, which has to be the weakest first base platoon in the history of first base platoons.

What an epic disaster this entire winter has been.

2023 Florida Farm Report

Now that Adley Rutschman has (FINALLY! THANK YOU, BALTIMORE ORIOLES GENIUSES!) moved on to the big leagues, and Sal Frelick and Jace Jung were sacrificed to the Altar of Competitiveness this winter, the Florida Mulligans farm system is almost entirely absent of any top-100 prospects. Only Brooks Lee is likely to make the top-100. We had back-to-back #23 rankings in the annual BDBL Farm Report back in 2012-13, but we have never ranked dead-last. Unless something very weird happens between now and next month, that precedent may be set this year.

Just because we rank dead-last, however, doesn't mean we have a bad farm system. In fact, I would boldly claim that we have one of the best in the league! I'll double-down on that bold claim with a bold prediction: if -- IF!! -- we can manage to hold on to most of these players below and resist the urge to trade them (HA!), I believe the Florida farm will rank #1 in that annual BDBL Farm Report by 2025.

Florida's Top Ten Prospects

1. Chase Dollander, p
Born: October 26, 2001 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 192. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2022.

Background: Dollander is currently ranked as the #1 pitching prospect in the 2023 MLB draft class by pretty much everyone. MLB.com has him at #2 overall, as does Baseball America. He is said to be the best pitching prospect in the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and has been compared to Strasburg and Gerritt Cole in terms of his style of pitching and pure stuff.

Stats: Last year, with the Tennessee Volunteers, Dollander went a perfect 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA. In 79 innings, he allowed just 50 hits, including 7 homers, and 13 walks. He struck out 108 batters and held opponents to a .175 batting average.

The Future: Some pundits are speculating that Dollander will be the first overall pick in this summer's draft. Regardless of where he is chosen, he is our best pitching prospect since Strasburg, who was the #1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft.

2. Brooks Lee, ss

Born: February 14, 2001 (22.) B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: winter farm draft, 2021 (2nd round).

Background: Lee was selected in the first round (8th pick overall) in the 2022 MLB draft. He enjoyed a very productive college career while playing for his father, Larry, at Cal Poly. He is a switch hitter who mashes from both sides of the plate. He demonstrates good plate discipline, hits to all fields, and possesses at least average power. In the field, he makes all of the routine plays, but will likely move to second or third base down the line.

Stats: In his final season with Cal Poly, Lee hit .357/.462/.664, with 15 homers and a stellar 46/28 BB/K ratio. As a sophomore, Lee not only crushed it in collegiate play, but he also excelled in the Cape Cod League and Team USA. In his professional debut this past year, Lee hit .303/.388/.451 at three different levels, with 4 homers in 122 at-bats.

The Future: Sadly, Trea Turner's contract with the Florida Mulligans expires after the 2024 season. At that point, with any luck, Lee will be ready to slide right into that position. If he ends up at third base, he'll have to wait his turn behind Rafael Devers, who is signed through 2027. Of course, second base is always an option with this franchise.

3. Wyatt Langford, of
Born: November 15, 2001 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 225. Acquired: mid-season draft (pick #4), 2022.

Background: Langford, a junior at the University of Florida, is currently ranked #7 on Baseball America's top prospects list for the 2023 MLB draft. MLB.com ranks him at #3. There is some speculation lately that he could move up all the way to #1 by the time this NCAA season ends. The reason for that is the recent gains he has made defensively, which suggest that he could play a center field role in the big leagues.

Stats: In his sophomore season last summer, Langford hit an impressive .356/.447/.719 with 26 home runs. Those 26 homers tied Matt LaPorta's school record. In addition to his power (which MLB.com assigns a scouting grade of 65 on the 20-80 scale), Langford also owns a 60 hit tool, and is rated above average as a runner and with the glove. This makes him what they call a five-tool player.

The Future: The fall reports on Langford were extremely encouraging. He could very well be selected in the first three picks of the upcoming draft. If Dollander pitches to expectations, that could give the Mulligans two of the first three picks in that draft. Langford should move quickly up the professional ladder, assuming he signs quickly after he is selected. We could see him in a Mulligans uni by 2025.

4. Ethan Salas, c
Born: June 1, 2006 (age 17). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: midseason draft (pick #2), 2022.

Background: Salas is the consensus best player available in this year's international player pool. MLB.com has called him "one of the best catching prospects in recent history." He has a plus hit tool (rated 50 by MLB.com), excellent strike zone judgment, and can hit with power to all fields. Defensively, he is rated above-average in all areas, including a cannon for an arm. He also has good baseball bloodlines as he is the brother of Marlins infielder Jose Salas. His father, uncle, and grandfather also played professionally.

Stats: Of course, there are no stats available for any of these teenagers who will sign multi-million-dollar deals later this month. It's all about the scouting reports with these kids.

The Future: If Salas lives up to all the hype, we will have a logjam behind the plate with Rutschman likely to man that position for the next decade. It would be a nice problem to have.

5. Felnin Celesten, ss
Born: September 15, 2005 (age 16). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (2nd round), 2020.

Background: Celesten has been among the top-ranked prospects of the 2023 international class for several years now. He's been a top prospect for so long that I acquired him three years ago and he STILL isn't eligible to be signed! According to the scouting reports, he is a generational talent. According to MLB.com, Celesten owns the "highest ceiling of any international prospect in a decade." (And yes, that includes the Great Wander F'ing Franco.) Celesten is said to possess that coveted "five-tool" arsenal. He can hit for power and average, has plus speed, and is very likely to stick at shortstop.

Stats: See my comments on Salas above..

The Future: These 15- and 16-year-old Latin American prospects are all about projection and risk. Mix extremely-high risk with extremely-high reward, and that is what you have with both Salas and Celesten. The odds of winning the lottery are astronomically high, and yet someone always wins. Why should that someone always be Mike Ranney when it comes to these teenagers?

6. Benny Montgomery, of
Born: September 9, 2002 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 200. Acquired: midseason draft (round 4), 2021.

Background: Monty was a first-round pick (8th overall) in the 2021 MLB draft out of high school. He was considered by some scouts to have the best tools in the prep class, with grades in the 60's and 70's across the board. He is a 70-grade runner with a plus arm and plus raw power. As a professional, those scouting reports have proved mostly accurate.

Stats: Monty owns a career batting line of .315/.388/.477 in 302 at-bats. His 60-grade power has not yet translated to professional game play, as he has hit only 6 homers, 21 doubles, and 5 triples to date. His 70-grade speed has translated to a 14/2 SB/CS ratio. The one glaring weakness in his game is his propensity to swing and miss, as he owns a BB/K ratio of 26/86.

The Future: Monty's career could go in any number of directions from this point. He is still just 20 years old, and has yet to play a full season above the Rookie level. I assume the Colorado Rockies will challenge him with an assignment to High-A at some point in this coming year. I believe he will eventually become a big league regular with a power/speed combo and above-average defense in the outfield.

7. Brayden Taylor, 3b
Born: May 22, 2002 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: 2023 farm draft (round 2).

Background: Taylor is one of those players who has no loud tools, but is above-average in every aspect of the game. He can hit for average and power, he runs well, and he's solid defensively. He is among the best pure hitters in this year's draft, has advanced pitch recognition, and owns enough projectible power to hit 20-25 homers on an annual basis.

Stats: Taylor hit .314/.454/.576 with 13 homers for the Texas Christian Horned Frogs last season. As was the case his freshman year, he walked (55) more than he struck out (40). His batting line last season was nearly identical to his line as a freshman: .324/.445/.572.

The Future: From an offensive standpoint, Taylor reminds me a lot of Andrew Benintendi at the same point in his baseball evolution. Benny is probably never going to hit 40 homers, steal 40 bases, or hit .350. He is, however, an asset on our roster. He plays full-time almost every year. He gets on base. He doesn't strike out a lot. He hits both lefties and righties well enough. There is a great deal of value in that type of player. I believe Taylor fits into that type.

8. Aidan Miller, 3b
Born: June 9, 2004 (age 19). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 210. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 3.

Background: Miller is currently ranked as the #12 prospect in the 2023 MLB draft by MLB.com, and is ranked #16 by Baseball America. A prep player out of Florida, Miller owns some of the best raw power in this draft class. Playing against some of the best competition in the high school ranks, Miller has shown no trouble handling high velocity.

Stats: N/A.

The Future: You never know what you'll get from a teenage ballplayer. It doesn't matter if they're home-grown or imported from Latin America, Japan, or any other part of the world. Teenagers are teenagers. Sometimes they work out, but most of the time they don't. Building a farm system is like investing in stocks. The most profitable strategy is to diversify across a wide range of options and spread out the risk and reward. Prospects like Miller are the penny stocks.

9. Ryan Noda, 1b
Born: March 30, 1996 (age 27). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 217. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 5.

Background: At the opposite end of the risk/reward spectrum sits Ryan Anthony Noda. Bill James coined the phrase "Ken Phelps All-Star" to describe players like Noda. These are prospects who consistently perform well at the upper levels of the minor leagues, but don't get an opportunity to play in The Show until they're in their late-20s or even early-30s. Noda, who was selected by the Oakland A's in the Rule 5 draft, will finally get that opportunity in 2023.

Stats: Last season, playing for the Oklahoma City Dodgers at the Triple-A level, Noda hit .259/.395/.474 with 25 homers and 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts. He drew 92 walks, but also struck out 162 times.

The Future: What you see is what you get: a first baseman who will hit for power, won't hit for a high average, will draw lots of walks, and strike out a ton. He has a bit more speed than most first basemen, and is reportedly excellent defensively. He is probably better than at least 10 MLB first basemen right now. Noda could very well be our everyday starting first baseman in 2024, which isn't bad for a fifth round farm draft pick!

10. Luis Morales, p
Born: September 24, 2002 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 176. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 4.

Background: Morales escaped from Communist Cuba in September of 2021, and was declared a free agent last August. He is expected to sign a record-breaking bonus from the international bonus pool. The Oakland A's are reportedly the heavy favorites to sign him. Morales offers a fastball that tops out in the triple digits. His breaking ball is considered to be above-average, and his changeup is a work-in-progress. He is ranked #5 on MLB.com's 2023 international prospects list.

Stats: Pitching for Cuba's U-18 national team, Morales set a record with 161 strikeouts in 82+ innings.

The Future: Like all young pitching prospects, TINSTAAPP rules apply. Morales could become a "frontline starter" as MLB.com predicts. Or he could flame out like so many other mega-hyped young pitching prospects. One year from now, I'd like to think that Morales will rank much higher on this list, but, as with every other player on this page, there are no guarantees.