Chapter One Review

The premise of this game we play is that the actual on-field MLB performance of each player, measured by his statistics, determines the outcomes of the events within the game. The makers of this game assure its customers that, although there can be random fluctuations in any given small sample, the outcomes on the field will be nearly 100-percent accurate given a large enough sample of simulations.

Hmm.

Over the course of 25 seasons, I have often questioned whether or not the above is actually true. I understand how confirmation bias works in the human mind. I'm also aware of the distortion caused by small samples, and how it can affect overall perception. If a single player performs far above or below his MLB performance for any given time period, I can accept this as part of the randomness of this game. But when an entire TEAM performs abnormally...something must be wrong.

Heading into our final two series of this chapter, the Florida Mulligans owned a record of 9-11. We owned the worst team ERA in the league, were outscored by our opponents on the season, and spent more than a few days in last-place in the McGowan Division. Something was wrong.

We then closed out the chapter with a series sweep against the Philadelphia Fightin's, including two walk-off wins in the tenth inning, and then shocked the entire world by taking three of four from the dominant Los Altos Undertakers in our final series of the chapter. As a result, we ended up with a pretty respectable 16-12 record, and have somehow managed to outscore our opponents by a whopping five runs.

Heading into this season, we were expected to have one of the league's best offenses, and one of the league's best pitching staffs. Half of that was true in Chapter One. We hit .264/.351/.415 in the chapter, which is decent-enough, but not as great as we expected.

The one player doing the most to drag this team down was Rafael Devers, who is no stranger to inexplicable slumps. It seems as though he has spent the majority of his BDBL career in an inexplicable slump. In Chapter One, Devers hit just .175/.246/.281. He did not hit his first home run of the season until the very last series of the chapter. In fact, the Mulligans as a team hardly hit any home runs in Chapter One. We hit just 25 as a team, which is less than half the total (57) posted by the Darien Blue Wave.

The most inexplicable part about Chapter One was the performance of our pitching staff. We own a 4.94 team ERA, which currently ranks third-from-last in the OL. The poster child for our Chapter One pitching staff was Framber Valdez. According to his MLB numbers, Valdez should be a Cy Young candidate in the BDBL. Instead, he posted a 5.71 ERA in seven starts. He allowed far more hits (52) than innings (41) and walked nearly four batters per nine. In MLB, Valdez owned a H/9 rate of just 7.4 and walked just 3.0 per nine.

In MLB, Valdez set an all-time MLB record for consecutive quality starts. In Chapter One, Valdez gave us just three quality starts in seven attempts (a rate that is roughly half his MLB rate.) In MLB, Valdez held left-handed hitters to a miniscule .192/.274/.231 batting line. In the BDBL, lefties clobbered him to the tune of .350/.458/.350.

In other words, the "Framber Valdez" who pitched for us in Chapter One bears no resemblance whatsoever to the actual Framber Valdez who actually pitches in MLB.

Valdez's MLB teammate Luis Garcia also had a miserable first chapter. He posted a 6.23 ERA in five starts, and also allowed more hits than innings. Ranger Suarez (8.56 in five starts) also had a miserable start to this season. Combined, Valdez, Garcia, and Suarez went 4-10 in Chapter One. Folks...that's not good. Those are three very good pitchers in reality. I have no idea how all three could simultaneously fall into such a slump in simulations.

Prior to those final two series, I had assumed that I would be throwing in the towel on this season. There is no point to doing so this early in the MLB season, so the plan was to wait until that season begins to form before pulling that trigger. Now that the Mulligans are finally beginning to play the way I expected they would play, I am less certain about throwing in that towel than I was last week.

We'll give it another chapter and reassess when the time comes. If we decide to go for it, we'll need a lot of help. If we decide to throw in that towel, we have some tasty trade bait to offer. Right now, I'm straddling that fence.

2023 Draft Diary

January 15

The draft is designed to break your heart. Each draft begins by targeting specific players who are identified as "must-haves." Each draft begins with targeting some players who you believe are flying under the radar, and would make excellent fliers for next year. Each draft proceeds by watching each and every one of those players disappear from your "short list," snatched up by some other person who will never love those players the same way that you would have. It is heart-breaking.

The 2023 draft has been no different. I identified several players as "must-haves" and did not get any of them. I also identified several who would make excellent fliers for next year. As I write here in the middle of the 17th round, I have seen several of those players snatched up by other teams -- two by the evilist of evil villains, Jeff Paulson. Unfortunately, I cannot take any of those fliers until I fill my starting lineup -- and I am roughly three picks away from doing so.

We desperately needed Will Myers. He filled a void at first base that no other player could possibly fill. He hits lefties, he has full-time usage, and he is excellent defensively. With only eight picks remaining before our pick, the fucking Darien Blue Wave (of all teams) snatched him away. That left us with David Villar as our platoon first baseman. Villar is fine. He hits lefties better than Myers. He plays shitty defense, though. And he doesn't have enough usage for full-time play. Which means we now have to draft yet another player to fill that usage.

I actually believed that would be the final disappointment in this draft. However, it then happened again in the very next round when Skiz Potrafka sniped Donovan Solano with the pick right before ours. Solano was going to be our first baseman, moving Villar to second base, where he's less of a liability. Not anymore.

That leaves us with a first base platoon of Villar and someone named Alfonso Rivas, which has to be the weakest first base platoon in the history of first base platoons.

What an epic disaster this entire winter has been.