The 2023 MLB season has officially come to an end, which means it is now time for us to look forward to the 2024 BDBL season and decide whether we're going to go all-in or rebuild. First, let's do some inventory.
Lineup vs. LH:
C Adley Rutschman: .304/.414/.481
LF Aaron Hicks: .349/.446/.524
RF Lane Thomas: .331/.375/.573
2B Nick Senzel: .347/.389/.619
CF Mark Canha: .264/.361/.464
DH Shohei Ohtani: .245/.358/.532
3B Rafael Devers: .273/.335/.488
1B Ryan Noda: .200/.340/.413
SS Trea Turner: .229/.295/.426
The top half of this lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Noda's numbers against left-handers took a nosedive in September. He was a very strong asset a month ago. Today, he's a borderline cut. Turner got off to an infamously slow start before busting out in the second half. But he, too, fell into the toilet in September, making him mostly useless to us next year.
There are teams in the BDBL right now who are leading their divisions with weaker lineups than this one. Of course, all of this depends on the BDBL numbers resembling these MLB numbers even remotely. As we've seen this year, that doesn't always happen.
Lineup vs. RH:
C Adley Rutschman: .267/.359/.419
DH Shohei Ohtani: .327/.431/.701
3B Rafael Devers: .270/.357/.505
1B Brandon Belt: .256/.375/.515
SS Trea Turner: .282/.331/.472
RF Lane Thomas: .242/.292/.427
CF Mark Canha: .261/.350/.369
LF Andrew Benintendi: .261/.327/.343
2B: TBD
Again, the top half of the lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Benintendi has been a disappointment from day one, and he's only become more and more useless every year. I listed Senzel as a second baseman against lefties, but it is very likely that he won't be rated at that position. If that happens, we have no second baseman against lefties AND righties. We had that same problem this year, and we've all seen the results of that.
Overall, the lineup against lefties and righties needs help.
Starting rotation:
1. Framber Valdez: 198 IP, 166 H, 19 HR, 57 BB, 200 K
2. Shohei Ohtani: 132 IP, 85 H, 18 HR, 55 BB, 167 K
3. Ranger Suarez: 125 IP, 129 H, 13 HR, 48 BB, 119 K
4. JP Sears: 172 IP, 165 H, 34 HR, 53 BB, 161 K
5. Alex Faedo: 65 IP, 48 H, 12 HR, 20 BB, 58 K
Yikes. Framber's numbers are similar to his numbers a year ago, and we've all seen how he has struggled in the BDBL all season. Ohtani should be great, but very limited in usage. Then, our rotation swirls down the toilet. In an ideal world, I would never want to start Suarez or Sears under any circumstance. Sears allowed 34 homers in the cavernous Oakland home park. How many would he allow in our park? 50? 60?
Bullpen:
David Bednar: 67 IP, 53 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 80 K
Ian Hamilton: 58 IP, 45 H, 2 HR, 26 BB, 82 K
AJ Minter: 65 IP, 56 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 82 K
Robert Stephenson: 52 IP, 30 H, 8 HR, 16 BB, 77 K
Dauri Moreta: 58 IP, 39 H, 4 HR, 24 BB, 76 K
Kyle Nelson: 56 IP, 59 H, 12 HR, 14 BB, 67 K
This is a decent bullpen. I would be happy heading into a season with this bullpen. We're about 35 innings short on usage, but that shouldn't be difficult to find.
Next, let's take a look at the money situation. Assuming we don't have any more penalties for over-use (and that is always an issue regardless of how diligent I am), here's where we stand:
22 players, at a total of $56.6 million.
Which leaves: $6.9 million for 13 players.
Again, I say: Yikes. In order to contend in 2024, we would need to fill two gaping holes: a starting pitcher and a second baseman. $6.9 million could not buy ONE of those two players, never mind two. Unless we dump some salary, there is no way we could fill those holes through free agency.
Whose salary would we want to dump? We could start with Ranger Suarez, who will make $10 million for being a part-time, mostly-useless, bum. No one in the league would take his salary unless we parted with a prospect along the lines of Wyatt Langford or Ethan Salas. And that ain't happening.
I would love to dump Benintendi, but he is a franchise player. (I stupidly signed him to a longer contract than Trea Turner.) Turner, in his final year under contract, would be another guy I would like to dump, but he, too, is franchised. Mark Canha ($6.5M) and Brandon Belt ($6.5) are overpaid for what they contribute, but would be tough to trade. Trading them would also create two more gaping holes in our lineup.
Honestly, it's hard to believe the salaries of these players add up to $56.6 million. I just had to double-check that, it's so incredible. But it's true.
Go For It
If we decide to go for it, it will require tremendous sacrifice. Langford and Salas are untouchable. We also can't afford to move Brooks Lee, as this is Turner's final year under contract and Lee is likely to slide right into our shortstop slot next year. That leaves prospects like Brock Wilken, Chase Dollander, Brandon Taylor, and Kyle Teel. We love those guys, but I'm guessing most people in the league don't even know who they are.
Going for it will require too much sacrifice. I'm not willing to trade away the future of this franchise for a longshot -- especially when we've already seen how this game can't be trusted to simulate reality in the first place.
Rebuild
Let's say we decide to rebuild. Who could we move in trade to get pieces for our future? Benintendi, Devers, Ohtani, and Turner are all franchised, so they can't be moved. That leaves Valdez as our number one trading chit, and he would fetch quite a lot in return. David Bednar, Aaron Hicks, AJ Minter, and Nick Senzel could fetch a good amount in trade as well. Ian Hamilton, Dauri Moreta, and Lane Thomas have trade value, but also have some possible future value.
Let's say we traded Valdez, Bednar, Hicks, Minter, and Senzel. Of the five, only Bednar is signed beyond 2024, so we lose nothing going forward. We would free $13.6 million in salary, which we could use to sign free agents with future value. We could snag several players in trade that could combine with Devers, Ohtani, Turner, Rutschman, and possibly Lee, to form a strong 2025 team. Our greatest need would be starting pitching, which we could easily fill through trade and free agency.
Go For It? Or Rebuild?
It seems ridiculous to throw in the towel on a team that includes Adley Rutschman, Rafael Devers, Trea Turner, Framber Valdez, and Shohei Ohtani. Yet, we had those same players this year and we're struggling to finish with a .500 record. Having great players is no guarantee of success in the BDBL. You also have to have a heaping pile of luck on your side -- which has never happened in our franchise's history.
At this point, I'm leaning toward throwing in the towel. I will stick my finger in the air and see which direction the wind is blowing. If I'm tempted enough, I will blow this mother-F'er up. If not, maybe I will wait until the middle of the 2024 season to do so.
