Despite draining our season's VORP cap on relief pitching, our bullpen continues to be our Achilles heel. We blew three late-game leads in Chapter Four and went 3-4 in one-run games. We somehow managed to blow SIX saves in only twenty-four games. Raisel Iglesias, alone, blew four saves in Chapter Four. He inherited ten base runners, and half of them scored!
The Good
Stephen Strasburg got off to such a horrendous start to this season, but has redeemed himself lately. In Chapter Four, he went 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA. Most importantly, he allowed only one home run in four games.
We had been using Luis Perdomo as our spot starter throughout the first half of the season. He sucked so badly that we figured we'd give Matt Shoemaker a chance to pitch instead. He has been nothing short of brilliant. Last chapter, he went 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts.
It turns out that we traded a top-30 prospect for him, but Max Kepler's Salem debut has gone very well so far. We gave him plenty of playing time in Chapter Four, and he rewarded us with a .338/.405/.507 batting line.
Gary Sanchez (.333/.380/.556), Andrew Benintendi (.307/.379/.533), and Jose Ramirez (.303/.373/.606) also excelled in Chapter Four.
The Bad
Trea Turner (.244/.295/.366 in Chapter Four) has proven to be a huge disappointment this season. Not only isn't he hitting, but he was also thrown out in four of seven stolen base attempts.
When we signed Yoenis Cespedes as a free agent, we thought we had signed not only a very useful part-time player for 2018, but a cost-effective impact player for 2019 and beyond. Not only has Cespedes become useless to us going forward, but he hasn't done much at the plate in 2018, either. He hit .227/.320/.500 in Chapter Four, and is batting just .242/.284/.435 on the season. Thanks for nothing, Yoenis.
The Ugly
We depend a lot on Raisel Iglesias, as he is supposed to be our premier closer against right-handed batters. He held righties to a .163/.200/.252 batting line in a tough ballpark in MLB, and has held righties to a .178/.235/.290 line in the BDBL. For some reason, though, he just completely choked in Chapter Four. We handed him the ball THIRTEEN times in the chapter. He pitched nine innings in total, and allowed nine hits, nine runs, nine earned runs, six walks, and FOUR home runs. He allowed four home runs in nine innings -- and allowed five home runs in 76 innings in MLB. On the season, he has allowed NINE home runs in just 62 innings. And Cincinnati is a tremendous home-run hitter's ballpark! Go figure.
Mike Leake (1-1, 5.91 ERA in five games) was just about useless in Chapter Four. As was Odubel Herrera (.206/.270/.265), who has incredibly become a bench player after the acquisition of Kepler.
Okay, what the fuck is wrong with Mitch Moreland? Seriously. Someone check his player card. There is just NO WAY he can possibly be THIS shitty. For the fourth chapter in a row, he has been absolutely useless. He hit .188/.243/.333 in Chapter Four, and is hitting .173/.235/.307 on the season. Keep in mind, we only play him against right-handed pitchers, and he hit .246/.324/.460 against righties in MLB!
Looking Ahead
We've now reached that time of the year when we have enough data to look ahead at the 2019 season. Back in April, it seemed as though 2019 would be the year the Cowtippers finally revive their dominance of old and run away with the division with 115-120 wins. Odubel Herrera was leading the league with a .370 batting average. Gary Sanchez looked like the best catcher in baseball. Stephen Strasburg and Shohei Ohtani looked like dual aces. Trea Turner was hitting for the cycle every other game. Three months later, Herrera is just an average hitter, Sanchez is hitting below .200 and can't stay healthy, Strasburg and Ohtani are the most fragile pitchers in baseball and may not pitch 140 innings combined, and Turner is a below-average shortstop.
There are still some reasons for optimism, but this team no longer looks like a surefire contender on paper. We'll have a lot of work to do this off-season.
Offense:
C: Gary Sanchez: 279 PA, .188/.283/.416
1B: Mitch Moreland: 307 PA, .272/.345/.489
3B: Jose Ramirez: 458 PA, .292/.402/.612
3B: Eugenio Suarez: 389 PA, .298/.383/.574
3B: Rafael Devers: 396 PA, .245/.295/.425
SS: Trea Turner: 470 PA, .265/.337/.409
OF: Odubel Herrera: 438 PA, .275/.330/.464
OF: Andrew Benintendi: 443 PA, .300/.384/.512
OF: Max Kepler: 401 PA, .227/.317/.415
Ramirez is arguably among the top five hitters in baseball. Suarez and Benintendi are among the top fifteen in offensive WAR. The problem is that Ramirez moved from second base to third, creating a logjam at that position (which was supposed to be Devers' to lose.) This is a good problem to have. A not-so-good problem is the fact that Sanchez went from being the best catcher in baseball to the bottom of the barrel, and his backup, Travis d'Arnaud, is gone for the season with an injury. Filling that position isn't something we thought we would need to do, but it's now at the top of our priorities list.
Starting Pitching:
Stephen Strasburg: 85 IP, 77 H, 12 HR, 21 BB, 101 K, 3.90 ERA
Jose Quintana: 108 IP, 101 H, 15 HR, 52 BB, 95 K, 4.26 ERA
Jon Gray: 106 IP, 114 H, 11 HR, 32 BB, 131 K, 5.16 ERA
Sonny Gray: 101 IP, 104 H, 12 HR, 44 BB, 96 K, 5.08 ERA
Zach Eflin: 77 IP, 72 H, 10 HR, 18 BB, 72 K, 3.64 ERA
Stephen Matz: 107 IP, 95 H, 17 HR, 40 BB, 95 K, 3.79 ERA
Shohei Ohtani: 49 IP, 36 H, 5 HR, 20 BB, 61 K, 3.10 ERA
Anibal Sanchez: 78 IP, 61 H, 10 HR, 24 BB, 74 K, 3.00 ERA
Mike Montgomery: 87 IP, 89 H, 7 HR, 28 BB, 54 K, 4.03 ERA
Our starting pitching basically falls into two categories: aces who are pitching like #4 starters and #4 starters who are pitching like aces. The first group includes Strasburg, Quintana, and both Grays. In any other year, these guys would all be tremendous assets. In 2018, not so much.
The second group includes two guys -- Eflin and Sanchez -- that we plucked off of the free agent scrap heap. We would have had a third -- Clay Buchholz -- if not for Tony Chamra's meddling.
Bullpen:
Raisel Iglesias: 47 IP, 32 H, 6 HR, 15 BB, 49 K, 2.11 ERA
Richard Rodriguez: 42 IP, 37 H, 3 HR, 10 BB, 53 K, 2.76 ERA
Jonathan Holder: 43 IP, 29 H, 2 HR, 7 BB, 38 K, 2.11 ERA
Adam Cimber: 51 IP, 45 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 51 K, 3.00 ERA
Phil Maton: 28 IP, 27 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 28 K, 3.25 ERA
Matt Grace: 39 IP, 34 H, 4 HR, 9 BB, 33 K, 2.77 ERA
There is no real "closer" in this group, but overall it's a strong group of relievers with plenty of depth. We will more than likely use Ohtani out of the bullpen, so he will become another asset for us in the late innings.
