Friday, April 15, 2022

Chapter Two Review

Thirty-five percent of the way into the 2022 season, the Salem Cowtippers own a winning percentage of .750 and an 18-game lead in the McGowan Division. We own a runs differential of +146, which is far above the next-highest total (although, granted, most of the teams have played fewer than a dozen games in Chapter Two as I type.) We have scored 329 runs, which equates to 5.9 runs per game -- second only to Great Lakes. Our pitching staff owns an ERA of 2.94, which is tops in the entire BDBL.

In other words, I have very little to complain about right now. But I'll do it anyway.

Complaint #1: Trea Turner

It is time to face a harsh reality: the Trea Turner who plays for us is not the same Trea Turner who plays baseball for a living in real life. The real-life version was the best player in baseball last year, according to WAR. That version of Turner hit for power (28 HR), stole lots of bases (32), hardly ever got caught (86% success rate), got on base (.375), and performed well against right-handed pitching (.305/.353/.475). The version of Turner who plays for us does none of those things.

Our version of Turner, his evil twin, is a rather mediocre-hitting (.258/.323/.397) second baseman who strikes out a shit-ton (45 in 229 AB), gets on base less than one-third of the time he steps to the plate (.323), doesn't hit for much power (6 HR), grounds into a shitload of double plays (9, second in the OL), can't ever get a decent jump, gets thrown out or picked off when he does (60% success rate), and can't hit righties to save his life (.239/.289/.351).

It's time to stop pretending that eventually our evil twin's performance will improve, and start treating him like the player he actually is. That means moving him down the lineup and perhaps replacing him if a replacement can be found. The problem is that his right-handed bat breaks up all of the lefties in our lineup, and there is no one else, outside of possibly Mark Canha, who can fill that role.

Complaint #2: Ryan Tepera

We have never had a traditional "closer" in the history of the Salem franchise. BDBL Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera recorded our all-time high for saves in a season, way back in 2014, with 37. Huston Street (34 in 2015) is the only other reliever in franchise history to record 30+ saves. In general, we often use our best reliever in non-save situations when the game is nevertheless on the line. That "best reliever" this year is supposed to be Ryan Tepera.

Tepera has now thrown roughly half as many innings in the BDBL as he did in MLB, and has already surrendered more home runs (6) than he did all year in MLB (4). He has already blown more saves (5) than he did in MLB (4). This past chapter, he cost us two games that should have been easy saves. He blew a 5-0 lead against the Flagstaff Peaks and a 5-3 lead against the Blacksburg Beamers.

Like Turner, maybe it's time to adjust our expectations to this new "reality" and move Tepera down the pecking order in our bullpen. The only other option is to keep stubbornly inserting him into tight games at our own peril.

That's All

That's it, really. Just two major complaints. Frankly, this represents an all-time franchise record for fewest complaints at this point in the season. Certainly compared to last season, this one has been a complete and utter joy.

There are still some tweaks I'd like to make before trading season ends. If that doesn't happen, and I have to head into the postseason with this roster, I'd be okay with that. It wouldn't be the end of the world. We have some usage issues, for sure, but it's nothing that the free agent scrap heap can't solve.

Notable Notables

Let's end this on a positive note by recognizing some outstanding performances to date:

  • Shohei Ohtani. My god. The man has been everything we hoped he would be this year. He's a perfect 6-0 on the mound, with a 2.86 ERA. He currently shares the league lead in home runs (17) with teammate Rafael Devers. He owns the third-highest OPS (.938) on the team. He's just an all-around beast.
  • Brandon Crawford. If not for Ohtani, you could argue that Crawford is the MVP of this team, and possibly the Ozzie League. He's hitting .333/.403/.571 in the leadoff spot while playing spotless defense.
  • Our catching platoon. I was a bit worried heading into this season that we would have a dead spot in our lineup regardless of who we played behind the plate. I targeted Zack Collins and Austin Nola in the draft as a possibly decent platoon. I had no idea they would be this good. Collins (.272/.413/.509) and Nola (.344/.425/.469) have been outstanding at the bottom of our lineup all season. It's a shame they'll both run out of usage soon.
  • Brandon Belt. We expected Belt to be a major asset in the middle of our lineup, and he has not disappointed. He's hitting .276/.370/.644 overall, with 16 homers and 42.7 runs created. He strikes out a shit-ton (50 in 174 AB), but gets the job done when he makes contact.
  • Steven Matz. Where on earth did this guy come from? A 1.84 ERA in 44 innings? A perfect 5-0 record? Who is this guy? I targeted Matz in the auction because I thought he'd be a relatively-inexpensive innings-eater this year, and would thrive in St. Louis in MLB. I never expected him to be this much of an asset in the '22 BDBL season.
  • Our bullpen other than Tepera. Luis A. Garcia, Joe Kelly, Ranger Suarez, Jake McGee, David Bednar, and Dominic Leone are a combined 15-3, with a 2.25 ERA in 147+ innings. It doesn't get much better than that.