Our four-game sweep of the Bear Country Jamboree was pleasantly unexpected. Pleasant surprises have not happened often in Salem Cowtippers history. I will say this about that series: we would have lost if it hadn't been for one man: Trea Turner. Of all people, the guy who was such a disappointment all season saved our asses. Every home run he hit came in a clutch situation. Most of them put us in the lead.
We can't count on Trea Turner saving our asses in every game, so we need to do whatever we can to gain an advantage against the toughest team in the BDBL in this next series. The Akron Ryche owned us this season. They went 8-3 on the year, including a four-game sweep in our final series of the regular season.
First things first, we need to figure out who we're throwing against them. The decision to use Ohtani on short rest in the OLDS worked out well, so we should stick with that formula. Lance Lynn is our de facto number two (as there is literally no one else who could possibly fit that role.) Jon Gray is the only other reliable starter we have, so he will get a turn.
Ronald Acuna (1.224 OPS) and Darren Ruf (1.196) both CRUSH left-handers. Against righties, we have to deal with my least-favorite player in the BDBL, Jesse Winker (.987) and Josh Bell (.937). It seems wise to start only right-handers against this team, which means we would need to start Luis H. Garcia. He fared well against Akron in three games this year, so that seems like a good bet.
Our rotation, then, looks like this:
Game 1: Ohtani
Game 2: Lynn
Game 3: Gray
Game 4: Ohtani
Game 5: Garcia
Game 6: Lynn
Game 7: Ohtani
I feel comfortable with that.
Here is the lineup Akron used against Max Scherzer in the OLDS. I have to assume this is what we'll see against our righties:
1. Acuna: .258/.376/.540
2. *Winker: .320/.406/.581
3. Riley: .296/.365/.543
4. #Bell: .294/.364/.573
5. Swanson: .225/.302/.401
6. Bader: .297/.349/.488
7. #Mejia: .260/.333/.462
8. Sosa: .350/.399/.529
Note: D.J. Shepard switched Manny Pina (.561) for Mejia against Walker Buehler for some reason.
Other than Swanson, there isn't an easy out in that lineup. There is no clear way to pitch around any of them, with the exception of Mejia (which would only lead to Sosa stepping in with a man of base.) This is a nightmare of a lineup.
I would like to get Winker out of the lineup as quickly as possible. I cannot stand the guy. He's a giant pain in the ass. If we yank our starter in the fifth inning and bring in a lefty, it's possible Shepard could pinch hit for Winker, and we wouldn't have to deal with him in the late innings. Of course, if we do bring in a lefty, the most likely pinch hitter would be Darin Ruf (.328/.495/.701 vs. LH), so pick your poison.
Ideally, the preferred move would be to bring in a decoy lefty, intentionally walk Ruf, and then bring in a righty to face the heart of the lineup with a man on first. But that is a very risky, low-upside, type of move that we could only use if we have a comfortable lead -- and what are the odds of that?
Akron's two best relievers (Josh Hader and Tim Mayza) are both lefties. Fortunately, given that Akron will be starting nothing but righties against us, we'll have a bounty of lefty-mashers on our bench: Lane Thomas, Andy Ibanez, Ramon Laureano, Chad Pinder, Yadiel Hernandez. None of Akron's other relievers are particularly scary.
Defensively, Mejia is extremely easy to run on. Opposing base stealers enjoyed a success rate of 84% against him this year. None of Akron's outfielders have strong arms, so we can probably let our guys take the extra base, too. Anything to gain an advantage in this series.
I have to say, I don't feel good about this one. There isn't much, from a managerial standpoint, that I can do except hit "1-1" and hope for the best.
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