2020 Playoffs Diary: Damage Report

Let's not pussyfoot around it: Stephen Strasburg cost us the postseason. His two shitty starts in the series absolutely buried us. He put us in an impossible situation, and gave us no chance to win. The guy has been good (not great) for us for a long time, but he really shit the bed yesterday. He put us in a 8-1 hole after only four innings in Game Two, and then coughed up four first-inning runs in Game Six.

But let's not let Max Scherzer off the hook, either. We paid $15.5 million for him in January, with the expectation that he would put our pitching staff over the top. We envisioned a rotation with four legitimate aces, and assumed that would be extremely difficult to beat in the postseason -- especially in a season where offense is so out of control. Mad Max made one start in the Division Series and coughed up five runs in only six innings. He was grossly out-pitched by Brandon Woodruff, who earns a minimum-wage salary.

There is plenty of blame to throw around. Jose Ramirez went 1-for-21 (.048) in the series, and committed three crucial errors in six games. Tom Murphy hit a pair of homers, but went just 3-for-18 in the series, and committed two errors himself. Shohei Ohtani and Carlos Puello went 0-for-11, combined.

It was just a disastrous series all around. A true team "effort." And now we turn to 2021.

2020 Playoffs Diary: Scouting Akron, Part Two

 What more can we possibly learn about the Akron Ryche before our series begins?

• D.J. Sheppard doesn't steal very often. When he does, it's almost exclusively with Starling Marte or Ronald Acuna, and it's almost always a steal of second base.
• Defensively, the Ryche didn't pick off too many baserunners this year, with the exception of one team: the Salem Cowtippers. They caught us twice. We need to be careful with that.
• The vast majority of Akron's steals came with two outs.
• Austin Riley could be a real pain in the ass in this series. He's eligible for only 8 PA's in the series, but he hit .304/.391/.759 against lefties. He could be a major weapon off of the bench if we have Bummer on the hill. We need to make sure we use Bummer in situations where a home run wouldn't kill us or where we have a right-hander all warmed up in case Riley is called upon.
• Looking at this lineup, there aren't many platoon advantages to exploit. We're best off simply throwing our best pitcher out there regardless of which arm he throws with.
• Aside from Scott Oberg, the other pitchers in the Akron bullpen can be exploited. Smith struggles against power righties. Clippard is one of those weird reverse-split right-handers who gets eaten up by righties. (Maybin would be a perfect match-up there.) Hader's problems are well-documented. Oberg is a pain in the ass. He's this year's version of Blake Treinen.
• It is extremely easy to run on Akron's pitchers. Opposing teams were successful 83% of the time against Akron as a whole, but a perfect 4-for-4 against Stroman, a perfect 9-0 against Clevinger, a perfect 4-0 against Corbin (during his time with Akron), and a perfect 6-0 against Jordan Yamamoto. The only pitchers who held runners in check were Woodruff (0-for-3) and Waguespack (1-for-3). Francisco Mejia (92% opponents steal rate) was just pathetic in that area.
• Don't run on Starling Marte (12 assists) or Acuna (15)...but we already knew that.

Our game plan is very straightforward. No tricks or gimmicks with our pitching staff. No "bullpenning" or any other weird crap. We'll throw our best starters at them: Sonny, Stras, Max, and Jon. They will go as long as they can. Then we'll hand the game over to Wendelken, Bummer, and Wick. If we need a crucial out against Acuna, that's Pena's job. If we need someone to serve up a three-run homer, maybe we'll bring Taylor Rogers along for the ride.

Which brings me to my next topic. Who is our 25th man?

Our choices are Sean Manaea (limited to 2 /13 innings), Taylor Rogers, and Jake Rogers. I don't see a scenario where Taylor Rogers helps us, so that boils it down to Manaea and Jake Rogers. It usually helps to have more than one left-hander on the pitching staff, but that doesn't seem to be an asset against Akron. The only lefty on their roster who can't hit lefties is Jesse Winker. Manaea does pitch as well (if not better) against righties, so maybe he could be used against one of their five switch hitters. On the other hand, Jake Rogers would be a nice pinch hit bat against Smith or Hader.

It's a tough choice. All things being equal, I'd rather have the extra arm, just in case. However, Murphy is limited to only 22 PA's for the series, and 15 PA's vs. lefties and 18 PA's vs. righties. He won't last through a seven-game series. If Patrick Corbin pitches that Game Six or Game Seven, who would be rather have catching: Haladay or Rogers? No contest.

Our Division Series roster is now set. Let the games begin.