Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Trading Season

The 2019 winter trading season is upon us. With the World Series out of the way, this means it is time to announce all of the deals we've made during the "quiet period." Today, we announce five trades that have filled some holes and provided us with some much-needed flexibility in the auction/draft.

Trade #1: Yusei Kikuchi to Mission Viejo for Francisco Cervelli.

For our first trade of the winter, we traded a guy we pledged we would never trade. The more things change in Salem, the more they stay the same. With Gary Sanchez sucking the big one this year, we were left with an empty void behind the plate. Cervelli fills that void with arguably the best bat behind the plate outside of J.T. Realmuto. In 404 plate appearances, he hit .259/.378/.431 with well-balanced OPS splits of 803/811. With a salary of just $2 million, and at age 32, it's likely that he can give us another two or three useful years beyond 2019.

Trading Kikuchi is the price we pay for competing immediately. We feel that we have pitching depth in the years to come; therefore Kikuchi was somewhat expendable. We foresee him becoming a very solid #2-#3 starter this coming MLB season, and will be a terrific minimum-wage bargain for the Vigilantes (nee Buffaloes) in 2020.

Trade #2: Gary Sanchez, Adam Cimber, and Max Kepler to Cleveland for Clay Buchholz, Christian Villanueva, and Danny Jansen.

Sanchez was part of our "Untouchables" group that was supposed to form the core of our team for the next several years to come. That all changed this past season when he slumped badly at the plate. What's worse than his offensive woes, however, are his continued defensive struggles. He cut his errors in half (in three-quarters as many innings), but for the second year in a row he led MLB in passed balls. Watching him day-to-day, it just doesn't look as though he's putting any effort into his defense whatsoever. We believe he will hit 40 or more home runs in the 2019 MLB season, but within two years he will become a full-time DH.

We are big fans of Jansen, which is why we drafted him several years ago. We believe he will become a high-on-base batter (not unlike Cervelli) with at least league-average defense behind the plate. The plan is for him to take over as our full-time catcher next season, leaving Cervelli as trade bait. Then, maybe three or four years from now, Adley Rutschman becomes our franchise catcher. (Of course, these long-term plans never seem to materialize in Salem.)

Buchholz (98 IP, 2.01 ERA), who was infamously stolen from us by Tony Chamra last year and now returns to his rightful home, gives us another half-season ace to pair with Anibal Sanchez (137 IP, 2.83 ERA.) Villanueva (.336/.392/.726 vs. LH) gives us a monster platoon at third base with rookie Rafael Devers (.244/.307/.464 vs. RH). That platoon made Eugenio Suarez expendable.

Lastly, ridding ourselves of Kepler's $1.5 million seems like a paltry benefit, but every penny is needed given our #1 pick in every round of the draft.

Trade #3: Jose Quintana to Akron for Matt Wallner.

When we paid $9.5 million for Quintana a year ago, we really thought he would become a first-tier ace for us in 2019. Although he didn't pitch poorly this past MLB season, he didn't pitch nearly as well as we hoped. The 2019 auction features an historic pool of aces: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Miles Mikolas, Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, and Jon Lester to name only a few. That $9.5 million could fetch one of them.

Wallner is yet another former Salem farmhand returning to Salem. He is a highly-regarded college prospect eligible for the 2019 MLB draft. Our farm club is so barren at the moment, he is a welcome addition.

Trade #4: Eugenio Suarez and Yoenis Cespedes to Southern Cal for Trevor Cahill.

When we placed Suarez on the Selling forum, we expected a tidal wave of inquiries for the 27-year-old superstar coming off a career season. Instead, we received a trickle. It was an unimpressive trickle at that. Ultimately, the best offer we received was to rid ourselves of Cespedes' $5.5 million salary (with a guaranteed $6.5 million in 2020) and yet another half-season starter in Cahill.

The addition of Cahill (110 IP, 3.76 ERA) gives us NINE starting pitchers (ten if you count Shohei Ohtani), but only one (Jon Gray) with more than 154 innings. It should be an interesting season managing this pitching staff.

Trade #5: Triston Casas and Bryson Stott to Flagstaff for Enrique Hernandez.

This year's auction class is overflowing with great pitching, but is practically barren when it comes to offense. Only a small handful of quality first basemen and outfielders will be up for bid this winter, and we needed some flexibility to go in either direction. Hernandez (462 PA, .256/.336/.470) gives us that flexibility.

We are very high on Casas and Stott, but sacrifices must be made, as Cowtipper fans know all too well.

After all of this dust settled, we were left with $30.1 million to spend on eight roster spots.

Friday, November 16, 2018

Twenty Years of Disappointment

With the BDBL celebrating our 20th anniversary this year, it seems appropriate to take a look back at the past twenty years of Cowtippers history. If there has been one overarching theme that describes those twenty years in their entirety, it would be our seemingly endless streak of disappointing playoff defeats. Here now are our most disappointing:

9) 2017 OLDS vs. Los Altos

The Undertakers enjoyed a three-year reign of dominance unlike we've ever seen before -- and hopefully will never see again. They were the hands-down, no-doubt-about-it, favorites to win their Division Series last year against the lowly Cowtippers. But I had a strategy, and the strategy seemed to be working. I somehow managed to take that ridiculous team all the way to Game Seven, despite being down three-games-to-one after four games.

Steven Matz was a good pitcher throughout that 2017 season. He went 15-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 145 innings. You could argue that he was my best starter. He was an absolute disaster in that series, however. He allowed seven runs (all earned) in six innings in Game Three, and then five runs (four earned) in six innings in that fateful Game Seven.

We actually managed to make Los Altos ace Chris Sale look human in that final game, but ultimately it was the bullpen that did us in. We managed to touch Kenley Jansen with an RBI base hit in the eighth inning (making it a 5-4 game), but he retired Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, and Odubel Herrera in order in the ninth to close out the one-run win.

Disappointing, but not surprising.

8) 2007 OLDS vs. Ravenswood

The 2007 Cowtippers won 110 games -- eleven more than any other team in the BDBL. They outscored their opponents by 245 runs. No other team that year achieved a runs margin greater than 178. It's safe to say Salem was the best team in the BDBL in 2007. Yet they didn't make it past the Division Series.

The Cowtippers managed to win the first game, 11-4. It was all downhill from there. Four straight losses -- three by a margin of one or two runs. The final game was decided when Salem's Erik Bedard -- who won the OL Cy Young that season -- allowed four runs in six innings. 

7) 2002 World Series vs. Allentown

Game Seven. Tied at 1-1. Our best, most reliable, relief pitcher on the hill. We couldn't have asked for a better place to be during our first-ever World Series appearance, given the fact that we were facing the best team our league had ever seen before. Despite winning 112 games and outscoring our opponents by 344 runs, we were the underdogs. We were fortunate to be in that position. Hell, if not for a fluke 10th inning grand slam home run by a relief pitcher in Game Six, we wouldn't have been in that position in the first place.

What hurts about this loss isn't that we lost. What hurts is how we lost. I lost count of the number of times I have questioned my decisions in that game and wondered if we could have won it only if I had made different decisions.

The top of the ninth opened with Barry Bonds leading off for Allentown. Barry Bonds was pretty good. All he did that year was hit .337/.519/.785 with 66 home runs, 188 runs scored, and 159 ribbies. Incredibly, he was 0-for-3 at that point. I decided to use my LOOGY, Norm Charlton in that situation. That move paid off. Bonds popped out to right.

That brought Manny Ramirez to the plate. Ramirez wasn't nearly as good as Bonds. He only hit .309/.380/.644 with 54 homers and -- get this -- 182 RBI's. I couldn't let the lefty Charlton face the lefty-killing Ramirez. I could have brought in my best reliever, David Weathers. Maybe I should have. No, I definitely should have.

Instead, I saw that righty-killing lefty Robert Fick was on deck. I thought that maybe leaving Charlton in to face Fick would force Tom to bring in a pinch hitter. Then I could bring in Weathers to face his pinch hitter. It's called "over-managing", and I did a lot of that back in the day.

I decided to do something that has been considered taboo in the game of baseball for over a century: I intentionally walked the go-ahead batter. Just as I hoped, Tom brought in righty Ellis Burks, and I oh-so-smartly countered with Weathers. I then watched with horror as Burks doubled to the gap. The slow-footed Ramirez was waved home. The throw arrived...too late.

Someone named "Lincoln" then came in to face my franchise's greatest player, Lance Berkman, in the bottom of the ninth. Berkman whiffed. So did Craig Wilson. Ray Durham then grounded out to short. Game over. Series over. But it's never really over. Not in my head.

6) 2013 World Series vs. Southern Cal

The 2013 Cowtippers seemed like a Team of Destiny. We barely won a spot in the playoffs, winning the OL wildcard in the final series of the season. We barely beat a heavily-favored Undertakers team in the Division Series, winning a nailbiter Game Seven in the 11th inning -- the only Game Seven on record to go into extra innings. We then upset the #1-seeded New Milford Blazers in the OLCS, winning two of the five games by just one run.

The Southern Cal Slyme were a better team by nearly any measurement. It didn't make that year's World Series loss taste any better. It was our FIFTH trip to the World Series. The Baseball Gods owed us one, no? Instead, mostly thanks to the atrocious performance of our franchise pitcher Stephen Strasburg (10.2 IP, 18 H, 13 ER), we upped our World Series record to 0-5.

5) 2010 World Series vs. Allentown

The first time was expected. The second time was devastating. The third time was just an insult. By the fourth time we faced the Allentown Ridgebacks in the BDBL World Series, the joke had grown stale and rotten. If I had the choice, I wouldn't have played at all. I knew the outcome before the first pitch was thrown. I'd seen this movie before. Three times.

Still...there is always a little part of me that thinks: "maybe it'll be different this time."

I had a reason to be optimistic. The Chapter Four trade that brought Zack Greinke to the Cowtippers made us into a much different team. With Greinke, 25-game-winner Felix Hernandez, and the always-reliable Dan Haren, the Cowtippers had a playoffs-caliber starting rotation, combined with a stifling bullpen led by Trevor Hoffman, and an offense that scored over 800 runs.

None of that matters in the playoffs, however. After upsetting both the Undertakers (with a sweep) and Infidels (revenge for 2004) in the Division and LCS, we traveled back to Allentown yet again for yet another World Series matchup. Right away, the series got off to a bad start. One of our three closers, Joe Nathan, had allowed just one home run in 33+ innings during the regular season, but served up a three-run homer to Jorge Posada in the 10th inning of Game One, giving Allentown a walk-off win.

The Ridgebacks held a two-games-to-one advantage in the series when Game Four began. Hernandez (who had a durability rating of Ex) was scheduled to start that game on three days of rest, but was listed as "tired." My choice was between starting a tired Hernandez or a fully-rested Jorge de la Rosa. I opted for the latter, who was absolutely pounded for twelve runs in just four innings.

The rest of that series was as predictable as the rising sun. Four World Series appearances -- all against Allentown -- and four World Series losses. Hilarious.

4) 1999 OLDS vs. Stamford

By nearly every measurement, we had the best team in the Ozzie League -- if not the entire BDBL -- in our inaugural season. We led the Ozzie League in wins, runs scored, and runs differential. We owned the league's MVP, John Olerud, and the league's Cy Young winner, Greg Maddux. If we simply awarded the league championship to the best team, the Salem Cowtippers would have faced the Southern Cal Slyme in our first World Series. But we actually play the games to determine the winner.

The series began on a high note, with our boys winning by a score of 11-1. We dropped the next two games (in a best-of-five series!) to bring us one game away from elimination. As if that weren't bad enough, our ace, Maddux, was forced to leave the game after pitching only two innings in Game Four, thanks to a rain delay. Despite the Baseball Gods' best efforts, we managed to win anyway, forcing a fifth and final game.

Game Five was tied at a score of 2-2 heading into the eighth inning. Because Maddux had thrown only 24 pitches in Game Four, and because there was a one-day break between Games Four and Five, Maddux was ready to start that fifth game. He had thrown over 90 pitches heading into the eighth, but I felt we had to stick with our ace. He recorded one out in that fateful inning before Rafael Palmeiro juiced one over the wall to put Stamford in the lead. Mad Dog then served up back-to-back doubles to score another run before he was pulled. Stamford's closer, John Wetteland, then retired all three batters he faced in the ninth, in order (including MVP Olerud) to clinch the Stamford victory. 

3) 2005 World Series vs. Allentown

In 2002, we lost the World Series to an Allentown Ridgebacks team that ranks among the greatest teams the BDBL has ever seen. Although it was difficult to lose the way we did, it was easy to accept a defeat to such a dominant team. 2005, on the other hand, was supposed to be our turn for payback.

The Cowtippers were undoubtedly the best team in the league that year. We led the BDBL in wins (108), runs scored (964), and runs differential (280). We sailed through the playoffs, defeating Ravenswood in six games and then Sylmar in five. I was so confident about our World Series rematch with Allentown that I began writing an online novel about it: "Five Games in November."

We held the home field advantage that series, and split back-to-back 10-inning games in the first two games at our home field. We lost the second game of that series when our all-world closer, Mariano Rivera, served up two hits. The knife in our gut was a clutch, two-out, RBI double by Brian Roberts that became the winning run of the game. Roberts had hardly played that season, amassing just 194 at-bats and batting .227. Yet, his double in the top of the 10th inning was his fifth hit of the game.

When the series shifted to Allentown, we never dreamed we wouldn't play another game in Salem. Yet that's exactly what happened. We dropped Game Three, lost a 10-7 heartbreaker in Game Four when our always-reliable reliever, Juan Cruz, loaded the bases with three walks and then surrendered a clutch two-out, two-run, double to a pinch hitter. The World Series ended when our arch-nemesis, Randy Johnson, tossed a complete-game shutout, allowing just six hits against an offense that had led the entire BDBL in runs scored.

2) 2004 OLCS vs. Ravenswood

My starting rotation already included Cy Young candidates Barry Zito and Curt Schilling when I added a third: NL Rookie of the Year, Brandon Webb. With all three rated Vg or Ex in durability, I knew they could start each and every game of the postseason. The only possible stumbling block en route to the trophy was the Los Altos Undertakers, but they were conveniently dispatched by the surprising Ravenswood Infidels in the Division Series.

Ravenswood didn't seem like much of a threat. They won "only" 92 games that season (compared to our 104 wins.) They scored 65 fewer runs than we did and allowed 31 more. Confidence was high when the OLCS began. It only grew when we took two of the first three games. Then, Game Four began with three runs scored in the very first inning against Schilling. He ended up with five earned runs (on two homers) in only four innings.

Not to worry, though. We had Webb starting Game Five. He had been lights-out all season, and would finish second in the OL Cy Young balloting a few weeks later. Webb recorded two quick outs to the first two batters in the Ravenswood lineup. Then the floodgates opened. A double, two walks, and three base hits later, we were looking at a 4-0 deficit. For the second game in a row, we were looking at an early deficit and never recovered. Our Cy Young candidate ended up with five earned runs in less than five innings of work.

We then asked Zito to stop the bleeding in Game Six. Instead, he allowed the first five batters he faced to reach base. After getting a sac fly for his first out, he allowed yet another hit before he was pulled from the game. By the time the dust settled, he had allowed SIX earned runs in just one-third of an inning. We went on to lose by a score of 11-4.

1) 2001 OLCS vs. Stamford

2001 was a year of profound tragedy for our country and for me personally. I lost my mother that year after her 21-month battle against cancer. Throughout that season, the BDBL provided me with a much-welcomed escape from reality. I immersed myself into the BDBL universe on a regular basis and truly believed I would be rewarded in the end. I felt as though the universe owed me one. Instead, the universe delivered a swift kick in the balls.

Watching the Stamford Zoots win not only our first BDBL trophy, but the next one as well, left a very bitter taste in my mouth. I wanted that trophy -- badly. By 2001, I was ready to sell my soul for that trophy. Absent that opportunity, I sold every bit of my franchise's future to ensure I would not fail as I had in both of the previous seasons.

I poured my heart and soul into that team. I turned over nearly 100% of my roster the winter before the 2001 season. I made seventeen trades, but I didn't stop there. At the Chapter Two deadline, I added a closer (Keith Foulke) and an all-star catcher (Jason Kendall.) Then, at the final trading deadline, I made my biggest move of the year, adding two MVP-caliber bats (Jeff Kent and Gary Sheffield), sacrificing my best farm players to get them.

The end result was an absolutely stacked roster with the league's top scoring offense. We hit .285/.375/.473 as a team. In addition to Kendall, Kent, and Sheffield, we had Jeff Bagwell (.308/.412/.572, 45 HR), Sammy Sosa (.294/.373/.567, 46 HR), Bobby Abreu (.309/.421/.524), and Lance Berkman (.323/.462/.617). Our lineup was so stacked, Travis Fryman (.341/.420/.541, with 103 RBI) batting seventh. There was NO WAY we could lose.

We swept the Gillette Swamp Rats right out of the OL Division Series. The momentum was undeniable. We were going to sweep our way straight through to our first trophy. There was no doubt in my mind. I took a road trip to New Jersey, so I could play the OL Championship Series head-to-head and face-to-face against my arch-nemesis, Paul Marazita.

I never stood a chance.

The OLCS began with an 8-0 shellacking. My world-beating offense finally managed to score a run in the seventh inning of Game Two en route to a 4-1 loss. The Zoots took a 5-0 lead in Game Three and eventually won 7-3. Then Stamford won Game Four by one run. A four-game sweep. Seventeen years later it still stings.