We have officially reached the halfway mark in the 2019 season, which means it's time to evaluate where we stand and where we're heading. We currently sit five games ahead of the Joplin Miners in the McGowan Division and own the third-largest runs differential (+97) in the Ozzie League. Our .663 winning percentage is topped only by the ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers, who are on pace for 115+ wins for the fourth time in the past five years.
If the season ended today, we'd be stuck with facing the most dominant team (by runs differential) in the BDBL, the Akron Ryche, in the OLDS. We've only played one series against Akron so far, and managed to split that one. Needless to say, the outcome of any short series between two such evenly-matched teams would depend entirely on random dice rolls (more so than usual.) To that end, we did as much as we could to prepare for the Tournament of Randomness by plugging some major holes in our roster through three trades made in the past four weeks.
When the season began, we initially planned to acquire one of the Big Three (Max Scherzer, Christian Yelich, or Mike Trout), and we were prepared to sacrifice Rafael Devers and/or Nick Madrigal to get us that player. However, as the season progressed, we realized we needed more than one player. Acquiring any one of those three would have eaten up most of our VORP cap. And sacrificing Devers or Madrigal became less palatable. So we pivoted to Plan B.
Trade #1: Corbin Carroll to the Myrtle Beach Hitmen for Travis Shaw.
We are hitting just .230/.315/.400 against right-handed pitching this year despite having seven full-time players on our roster with a .780+ OPS against righties. Three black holes in our lineup have dragged down the entire team against right-handers: Odubel Herrera (.231/.289/.361 vs. RH), Hunter Renfroe (.190/.245/.354), and Mitch Moreland (.160/.275/.266). Each of those three owns an OPS against righties that is more than 200 points below where it should be.
It seems logical to assume that a great deal of regression is in order, and eventually, all three of those players will perform as well as they should. But what if they don't? That is a risk we can't afford to take. To that end, we picked up Shaw (.309/.389/.648 vs. RH for MBH), who will immediately replace Moreland in the lineup.
In addition to sacrificing Carroll (the 16th overall pick in last week's MLB draft), we will also likely have to pay $2.5 million to get rid of Shaw in December. It is a price worth paying if Shaw hits as well for us as he had for Myrtle Beach.
Trade #2: Jalen Beeks to South Carolina for Brandon Nimmo.
Even after adding Shaw, we still had two massive holes in our lineup. Other than Yelich and Shaw, Nimmo (.259/.402/.486 vs. RH for SCS) was the best hitter against right-handed pitching that is likely to become available in trade this year. We seem to have enough pitching depth (at this point) to deal Beeks, and Nimmo's poor (and injury-plagued) 2019 MLB season made him a logical target.
We still have one hole in our lineup, but it's better than having three. The best we can do is hope there is enough regression from Herrera and Renfroe to give us a viable platoon against righties.
This deal had the added side benefit of blocking Max Scherzer from pitching for Akron or any other contender we might face in the postseason.
Trade #3: Will Smith to the Great Lakes Sphinx for Oliver Perez.
We believe Perez is the most dominant pitcher in this game, inning for inning. The problem is that he didn't pitch a lot of innings in MLB last year. That problem, however, works in our favor, as this kept his VORP low enough that we could afford to add him in addition to the other pieces we needed for our lineup.
We know we sacrificed too much in this deal. Smith is not only an excellent defensive catcher, but he will hit better than most catchers in his MLB career over the next decade or so. We sacrificed a decade of production for roughly 29 innings, plus whatever Perez gives us in the postseason. But with Cervelli and Jansen occupying the catcher's position next year (if they can pull their heads out of their asses and snap out of their slumps), and Adley Rutschman occupying that position for the next decade thereafter, we felt we were playing with house money. The only problem with adding Perez is that it means some quality pitcher will be left off the postseason roster. But that is a good problem to have.
Now, on to the midyear report cards. These grades are based on how well each player has performed in relation to his expectations.
A+: Christian Villanueva (.373/.419/1.090, 15 HR in only 67 AB)
A+: Danny Valencia (.389/.458/.708, with 14.0 RC/27)
A+: Shohei Ohtani (.345/.402/.548 as a hitter, 2.51 ERA in 28+ IP as a pitcher)
A+: Ryan Brasier (0.57 ERA in 15+ IP)
A+: Pedro Strop (0.72 ERA in 37+ IP)
A: Taylor Rogers (1.83 ERA in 39+ IP)
A: Jonathan Holder (1.98 ERA in 36+ IP)
A: Rich Rodriguez (2.43 ERA in 40+ IP, vs. LH: .057/.143/.071)
B: Ramon Laureano (.264/.347/.483 in 87 AB)
B: Steven Matz (2-1, 3.25 ERA in 36+ IP)
B: Trevor Cahill (6-3, 3.25 ERA in 63+ IP)
B: Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.83 ERA in 56+ IP)
B: Jon Gray (3-0, 4.07 ERA in 24+ IP)
C: Trea Turner (.272/.329/.427, 9 HR, 44.6 RC, 23 SB, 6 CS)
C: Andrew Benintendi (.258/.351/.471, 13 HR, 42.1 RC)
C: Francisco Cervelli (.254/.347/.432, 28.8 RC)
C: Matt Grace (3.18 ERA in 22+ IP)
C: Felix Pena (2-2, 4.01 ERA in 42+ IP)
C-: Evan Gattis (.246/.266/.434, 5 HR in 122 AB)
C-: Jose Ramirez (.232/.366/.500, 18 HR, 57.6 RC)
D: Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.42 ERA in 55+ IP)
D: Stephen Strasburg (5-5, 3.91 ERA in 76 IP)
D: Justin Turner (.253/.366/.382, 5 HR, 26.2 RC)
D-: Mike Montgomery (5-2, 4.76 ERA in 51 IP)
D-: Odubel Herrera (.222/.271/.335, 5 HR, 21.1 RC)
D-: Rafael Devers (.208/.281/.417, 3.1 RC/27)
F: Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 4.91 ERA in 66 IP)
F: Enrique Hernandez (.208/.306/.458, 12 HR, 25.8 RC)
F: Hunter Renfroe (.195/.243/.372, 10 HR, 3.0 RC/27)
F: Mitch Moreland (.187/.298/.293, 3.1 RC/27)
