Tuesday, October 4, 2016

The State of the 'Tippers, 2017: Offense

Turning to the offense...

Trea Turner was supposed to be the starting shortstop for the Washington Nationals on Opening Day. Everyone in the baseball world recognized that this kid was ready for primetime, and that it would be a complete waste of his talent to let him spend any more time in the minor leagues. Naturally, that's just what the Nationals did (as that is always what they seem to do.) After they were done dicking around with his service time, Turner was finally called up. He proceeded to explode onto the MLB scene: .342/.370/.567, with 13 homers, 8 triples, and 33 stolen bases in 39 attempts. Thanks to all that dicking around, though, he amassed only 324 plate appearances.

When we made the big Kris Bryant trade earlier this year, we knew exactly the risk we were taking. The goal was to spread that risk through diversification. A major element of our more diversified portfolio was Miguel Sano. Of course, within days of making that trade, Sano missed a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring strain. Then he hurt his elbow and missed even more time. Then he hurt his back. This is a 23-year-old kid we're talking about. By the time the dust settled, Sano managed only 495 PA's, with a disappointing .236/.319/.462 triple-slash line. Chalk it up as a wasted season. He will likely serve in a platoon role for us next season.

Another major factor in that trade decision was the acquisition of Andrew Benintendi. We are extremely high on this kid, and believe that he is the piece of the puzzle that we've been missing since Alex Gordon said goodbye to Salem. Unfortunately, the Red Sox also dicked around with Benintendi's service time. After tearing up NCAA and three levels of the minor leagues, it was obvious that he was ready for the big time very early in the year. Instead, the Sox waited until August to promote him. Then, of course, he twisted his knee and missed over two weeks of the remainder of the season. That left him with just 118 PA's, making him a valuable pinch hitter for us in 2017.

We signed Neil Walker as a free agent last winter with the intention of eventually trading him during the season. Instead, he exploded out of the gate, and finished the season with a .282/.347/.476 batting line. Unfortunately, he, too, missed a significant portion of the season due to injury, and ended up with only 458 PA's -- barely enough to avoid the split usage limitations.

Travis Shaw was another player we drafted with the sole purpose of flipping him in trade. But he, too, caught fire early in the season, and was hitting .292/.358/.508 at the end of May. It was around that time that Bob Sylvester offered Jameson Taillon for Shaw, straight-up. We said no. Seriously, that happened. Needless to say, Shaw went into a tailspin after that, and finished with a mostly-useless batting line of .242/.306/.421. Meanwhile, Taillon overcame his past injury issues, was promoted to the majors, and became one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game.

Last winter, we took a gamble by making a deal with the Akron Ryche in which we sent high school phenom Austin Bergner to Akron in exchange for Jose Ramirez. The gamble was two-fold: Bergner (at the time) was ranked the #1 prospect in the Class of 2016, and Ramirez carried a $2 million salary and a MLB career OPS of .604. Needless to say, that trade worked out well for us. Ramirez was among the bigger surprises in MLB, and finished the season with a line of .312/.363/.462. Bergner wasn't selected until the 38th round (pick number 1,138.) You lose some, and once in a blue moon you win some.

When the Granite State Lightning traded Justin Upton to the St. Louis Apostles last winter, and St. Louis GM Bobby Sylvester insisted that it was a salary dump trade, I made the comment that I would have taken Upton's contract in exchange for nothing. Sylvester took me up on the offer (although I somehow ended up giving something.) At the time, we looked at Upton as a terrific bounce-back candidate after a disappointing 2015 MLB season. At the all-star break, however, it looked as though his career was finished. His .235/.289/.381 batting line ranked among the worst in baseball. Then, the Detroit Tigers gave him a few days to think about how much he sucked. Upton hit .260/.337/.579 in the second half of the season and turned his season around. Incredibly, he hit .292/.382/.750 (yes, .750!) in the month of September, with a whopping 13 homers. His overall line of .246/.310/.465 is hardly awe-inspiring, but at least it has some value.

This was the season when Jorge Soler was supposed to break out and become the MVP candidate that we envisioned when he first exploded onto the MLB scene. He posted an .898 OPS in his brief minor league career, and then hit .292/.330/.573 in his MLB debut in 2014. 2015 was a huge disappointment (.262/.324/.399), but he capped that season with a phenomenal postseason performance that seemed to portend that great things were ahead. Or so we thought when we traded for him last winter. Instead, Soler began the first half of the season hitting just .223/.322/.377. Like Upton, he turned his season around in the second half (.258/.348/.515), but like Upton, his overall performance isn't strong enough to make him an asset for us in 2017.

Upton and Soler both came to the Cowtippers in the same trade (in which we sacrificed Freddie Freeman, Chris Coghlan, Luis Valbuena, and Yadier Alvarez.) We received pitcher Jon Gray in that deal as well. We also took on Starlin Castro's albatross of a contract. The best that we can say about Castro's MLB 2016 performance is that it wasn't as bad as his 2015 "effort." He hit .270/.300/.433 overall, with 21 homers. We're hoping that his three games at shortstop will mean that he will be rated at that position, and that his rating will be adequate enough for us to play him at that position. If not, I have no idea what we'll do with him.

Lastly, we picked up Alex Dickerson off the free agent scrap heap earlier this season. While we were hoping he would get a little more playing time down the stretch, we'll settle for his .254/.333/.477 batting line against righties and stick him in a platoon role with Jorge Soler.

vs. LH PA BA OBP SLG
CF Turner 65 .317 .338 .413
2B Walker 110 .330 .391 .610
3B Ramirez 182 .311 .368 .473
1B Sano 114 .227 .333 .485
RF Soler 84 .267 .345 .467
LF Upton 179 .236 .313 .441
SS Castro 172 .265 .308 .432
C ?
vs. RH        
CF Turner 259 .348 .378 .607
RF Dickerson 219 .254 .333 .477
3B Ramirez 436 .312 .361 .457
2B Walker 348 .266 .333 .433
1B Sano 381 .238 .315 .456
LF Upton 447 .249 .309 .474
SS Castro 172 .265 .308 .432
C ?

The State of the 'Tippers, 2017: Starting Rotation

The Great Rebuilding Project of 2016 was supposed to have been brief. By the time we finished the 2016 winter draft, I was convinced that the Cowtippers would be very competitive in 2017. Now that the 2016 MLB regular season is officially in the books, it's time to take a look at where we stand heading into the 2017 BDBL preseason. We'll begin with the starting rotation.

For the better part of the year, it appeared as though our starting rotation would be our greatest strength in 2017. Through the end of July, Stephen Strasburg was a strong candidate for the NL Cy Young award. He owned a 2.68 ERA at that point, and an opponents' OPS of just .571. He then injured his elbow -- again -- and made only five more starts before shutting it down for the season. Naturally, he was so horrendous in those five starts that it jacked his ERA up to 3.60 and his OPS up to .637. In just five starts, he went from a Cy Young contender to a mid-rotation starter. He will also be limited to just 167 innings next season.

We had very high hopes for Stephen Matz heading into this season. Through the end of June, it looked as though he would join Strasburg as two possible Cy Young contenders in 2017. At that point, Matz owned an ERA of just 2.27 with an opponents' OPS of .566. Then, he hurt his elbow and was forced to abandon the slider that greatly contributed to his success. His ERA ballooned to 3.40 over his next five starts and remained at that level until he was inevitably shut down in September. He was shut down repeatedly throughout the season and managed to throw only 132 innings, which gives him 145 innings of usage next season.

We weren't expecting much from Matt Shoemaker this season, but by the end of April he managed to wildly surpass even our lowest expectations. After five April starts, Shoemaker owned an ERA of 9.15. Seriously. We practically begged someone to take him off our hands. Fortunately, no one took us up on that offer. On May 21st, Shoemaker fired seven-plus innings of shutout baseball, with no walks and twelve strikeouts. That began an amazing streak where he posted an ERA of just 1.87 over his next eight games. By September, he managed to lower his overall ERA to 3.88. Then...he hurt his shoulder, and was shut down for the rest of the season. With 160 innings on the season, Shoemaker is now the "workhorse" of the 2017 Salem Cowtippers.

We had high hopes for rookie Jon Gray as well heading into the MLB season. Through the end of May, however, he owned an ERA of 5.56, and looked to be a lost cause for our 2017 rotation. Then he discovered a new grip on his slider. Over his next 11 starts, he posted an ERA of 2.60, with an opponents' OPS of .625. He managed to lower his ERA all the way down to 3.77 -- a remarkable feat for a Rockies pitcher. By the middle of August, we were beginning to think that he might become the ace of the Salem rotation in 2017. Then...he went into a massive slump. Over his last ten starts of the season, he owned a 6.41 ERA with a .771 opponents' OPS. He finished the season with a 4.61 ERA in just 168 innings. Another mid-rotation starter (at best.)

We've always liked Rubby de la Rosa, and were happy to have snagged him in trade last winter. By the end of April, that trade was looking like the work of a genius. De la Rosa owned an ERA of 4.18 and an opponents' OPS of .650 pitching in the tough pitcher's environment of Arizona. In his last start in April, he fanned ten batters in seven shutout innings. His future looked bright. His position in the 2017 Salem starting rotation seemed a lock. He managed to lower his ERA to just 3.53 by the middle of May. Then...you guessed it...he hurt his elbow. He made just one more start, missed the entire months of June, July, and August, tried to pitch out of the bullpen in September, and was ultimately shut down and introduced to Dr. James Andrews.

In MLB 2015, Mike Fiers managed a 3.69 ERA for the season and fanned 180 batters in 180 innings. If nothing else, we expected him to provide us with some innings at the back of our 2017 rotation. Instead, he gave us a 4.48 ERA in MLB 2016, with 26 home runs allowed in only 168+ innings, with only 134 K's and a league-leading 17 wild pitches.

That is our 2017 starting rotation as it stands today: four mid-rotation pitchers, three with elbow problems, a mostly useless #5 starter, and so many usage issues that we'll be forced to add another starter just to make it through the season.

  IP H HR BB K Splits
Strasburg 148 119 15 44 183 615/658
Shoemaker 160 166 18 30 143 705/745
Matz 132 129 14 31 129 698/686
Gray 168 153 18 59 185 694/712
Fiers 169 187 26 42 134 749/843