Friday, January 6, 2023

2023 Florida Farm Report

Now that Adley Rutschman has (FINALLY! THANK YOU, BALTIMORE ORIOLES GENIUSES!) moved on to the big leagues, and Sal Frelick and Jace Jung were sacrificed to the Altar of Competitiveness this winter, the Florida Mulligans farm system is almost entirely absent of any top-100 prospects. Only Brooks Lee is likely to make the top-100. We had back-to-back #23 rankings in the annual BDBL Farm Report back in 2012-13, but we have never ranked dead-last. Unless something very weird happens between now and next month, that precedent may be set this year.

Just because we rank dead-last, however, doesn't mean we have a bad farm system. In fact, I would boldly claim that we have one of the best in the league! I'll double-down on that bold claim with a bold prediction: if -- IF!! -- we can manage to hold on to most of these players below and resist the urge to trade them (HA!), I believe the Florida farm will rank #1 in that annual BDBL Farm Report by 2025.

Florida's Top Ten Prospects

1. Chase Dollander, p
Born: October 26, 2001 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 192. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2022.

Background: Dollander is currently ranked as the #1 pitching prospect in the 2023 MLB draft class by pretty much everyone. MLB.com has him at #2 overall, as does Baseball America. He is said to be the best pitching prospect in the draft since Stephen Strasburg, and has been compared to Strasburg and Gerritt Cole in terms of his style of pitching and pure stuff.

Stats: Last year, with the Tennessee Volunteers, Dollander went a perfect 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA. In 79 innings, he allowed just 50 hits, including 7 homers, and 13 walks. He struck out 108 batters and held opponents to a .175 batting average.

The Future: Some pundits are speculating that Dollander will be the first overall pick in this summer's draft. Regardless of where he is chosen, he is our best pitching prospect since Strasburg, who was the #1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft.

2. Brooks Lee, ss

Born: February 14, 2001 (22.) B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: winter farm draft, 2021 (2nd round).

Background: Lee was selected in the first round (8th pick overall) in the 2022 MLB draft. He enjoyed a very productive college career while playing for his father, Larry, at Cal Poly. He is a switch hitter who mashes from both sides of the plate. He demonstrates good plate discipline, hits to all fields, and possesses at least average power. In the field, he makes all of the routine plays, but will likely move to second or third base down the line.

Stats: In his final season with Cal Poly, Lee hit .357/.462/.664, with 15 homers and a stellar 46/28 BB/K ratio. As a sophomore, Lee not only crushed it in collegiate play, but he also excelled in the Cape Cod League and Team USA. In his professional debut this past year, Lee hit .303/.388/.451 at three different levels, with 4 homers in 122 at-bats.

The Future: Sadly, Trea Turner's contract with the Florida Mulligans expires after the 2024 season. At that point, with any luck, Lee will be ready to slide right into that position. If he ends up at third base, he'll have to wait his turn behind Rafael Devers, who is signed through 2027. Of course, second base is always an option with this franchise.

3. Wyatt Langford, of
Born: November 15, 2001 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 225. Acquired: mid-season draft (pick #4), 2022.

Background: Langford, a junior at the University of Florida, is currently ranked #7 on Baseball America's top prospects list for the 2023 MLB draft. MLB.com ranks him at #3. There is some speculation lately that he could move up all the way to #1 by the time this NCAA season ends. The reason for that is the recent gains he has made defensively, which suggest that he could play a center field role in the big leagues.

Stats: In his sophomore season last summer, Langford hit an impressive .356/.447/.719 with 26 home runs. Those 26 homers tied Matt LaPorta's school record. In addition to his power (which MLB.com assigns a scouting grade of 65 on the 20-80 scale), Langford also owns a 60 hit tool, and is rated above average as a runner and with the glove. This makes him what they call a five-tool player.

The Future: The fall reports on Langford were extremely encouraging. He could very well be selected in the first three picks of the upcoming draft. If Dollander pitches to expectations, that could give the Mulligans two of the first three picks in that draft. Langford should move quickly up the professional ladder, assuming he signs quickly after he is selected. We could see him in a Mulligans uni by 2025.

4. Ethan Salas, c
Born: June 1, 2006 (age 17). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: midseason draft (pick #2), 2022.

Background: Salas is the consensus best player available in this year's international player pool. MLB.com has called him "one of the best catching prospects in recent history." He has a plus hit tool (rated 50 by MLB.com), excellent strike zone judgment, and can hit with power to all fields. Defensively, he is rated above-average in all areas, including a cannon for an arm. He also has good baseball bloodlines as he is the brother of Marlins infielder Jose Salas. His father, uncle, and grandfather also played professionally.

Stats: Of course, there are no stats available for any of these teenagers who will sign multi-million-dollar deals later this month. It's all about the scouting reports with these kids.

The Future: If Salas lives up to all the hype, we will have a logjam behind the plate with Rutschman likely to man that position for the next decade. It would be a nice problem to have.

5. Felnin Celesten, ss
Born: September 15, 2005 (age 16). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (2nd round), 2020.

Background: Celesten has been among the top-ranked prospects of the 2023 international class for several years now. He's been a top prospect for so long that I acquired him three years ago and he STILL isn't eligible to be signed! According to the scouting reports, he is a generational talent. According to MLB.com, Celesten owns the "highest ceiling of any international prospect in a decade." (And yes, that includes the Great Wander F'ing Franco.) Celesten is said to possess that coveted "five-tool" arsenal. He can hit for power and average, has plus speed, and is very likely to stick at shortstop.

Stats: See my comments on Salas above..

The Future: These 15- and 16-year-old Latin American prospects are all about projection and risk. Mix extremely-high risk with extremely-high reward, and that is what you have with both Salas and Celesten. The odds of winning the lottery are astronomically high, and yet someone always wins. Why should that someone always be Mike Ranney when it comes to these teenagers?

6. Benny Montgomery, of
Born: September 9, 2002 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 200. Acquired: midseason draft (round 4), 2021.

Background: Monty was a first-round pick (8th overall) in the 2021 MLB draft out of high school. He was considered by some scouts to have the best tools in the prep class, with grades in the 60's and 70's across the board. He is a 70-grade runner with a plus arm and plus raw power. As a professional, those scouting reports have proved mostly accurate.

Stats: Monty owns a career batting line of .315/.388/.477 in 302 at-bats. His 60-grade power has not yet translated to professional game play, as he has hit only 6 homers, 21 doubles, and 5 triples to date. His 70-grade speed has translated to a 14/2 SB/CS ratio. The one glaring weakness in his game is his propensity to swing and miss, as he owns a BB/K ratio of 26/86.

The Future: Monty's career could go in any number of directions from this point. He is still just 20 years old, and has yet to play a full season above the Rookie level. I assume the Colorado Rockies will challenge him with an assignment to High-A at some point in this coming year. I believe he will eventually become a big league regular with a power/speed combo and above-average defense in the outfield.

7. Brayden Taylor, 3b
Born: May 22, 2002 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: 2023 farm draft (round 2).

Background: Taylor is one of those players who has no loud tools, but is above-average in every aspect of the game. He can hit for average and power, he runs well, and he's solid defensively. He is among the best pure hitters in this year's draft, has advanced pitch recognition, and owns enough projectible power to hit 20-25 homers on an annual basis.

Stats: Taylor hit .314/.454/.576 with 13 homers for the Texas Christian Horned Frogs last season. As was the case his freshman year, he walked (55) more than he struck out (40). His batting line last season was nearly identical to his line as a freshman: .324/.445/.572.

The Future: From an offensive standpoint, Taylor reminds me a lot of Andrew Benintendi at the same point in his baseball evolution. Benny is probably never going to hit 40 homers, steal 40 bases, or hit .350. He is, however, an asset on our roster. He plays full-time almost every year. He gets on base. He doesn't strike out a lot. He hits both lefties and righties well enough. There is a great deal of value in that type of player. I believe Taylor fits into that type.

8. Aidan Miller, 3b
Born: June 9, 2004 (age 19). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 210. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 3.

Background: Miller is currently ranked as the #12 prospect in the 2023 MLB draft by MLB.com, and is ranked #16 by Baseball America. A prep player out of Florida, Miller owns some of the best raw power in this draft class. Playing against some of the best competition in the high school ranks, Miller has shown no trouble handling high velocity.

Stats: N/A.

The Future: You never know what you'll get from a teenage ballplayer. It doesn't matter if they're home-grown or imported from Latin America, Japan, or any other part of the world. Teenagers are teenagers. Sometimes they work out, but most of the time they don't. Building a farm system is like investing in stocks. The most profitable strategy is to diversify across a wide range of options and spread out the risk and reward. Prospects like Miller are the penny stocks.

9. Ryan Noda, 1b
Born: March 30, 1996 (age 27). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 217. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 5.

Background: At the opposite end of the risk/reward spectrum sits Ryan Anthony Noda. Bill James coined the phrase "Ken Phelps All-Star" to describe players like Noda. These are prospects who consistently perform well at the upper levels of the minor leagues, but don't get an opportunity to play in The Show until they're in their late-20s or even early-30s. Noda, who was selected by the Oakland A's in the Rule 5 draft, will finally get that opportunity in 2023.

Stats: Last season, playing for the Oklahoma City Dodgers at the Triple-A level, Noda hit .259/.395/.474 with 25 homers and 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts. He drew 92 walks, but also struck out 162 times.

The Future: What you see is what you get: a first baseman who will hit for power, won't hit for a high average, will draw lots of walks, and strike out a ton. He has a bit more speed than most first basemen, and is reportedly excellent defensively. He is probably better than at least 10 MLB first basemen right now. Noda could very well be our everyday starting first baseman in 2024, which isn't bad for a fifth round farm draft pick!

10. Luis Morales, p
Born: September 24, 2002 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 176. Acquired: 2023 farm draft, round 4.

Background: Morales escaped from Communist Cuba in September of 2021, and was declared a free agent last August. He is expected to sign a record-breaking bonus from the international bonus pool. The Oakland A's are reportedly the heavy favorites to sign him. Morales offers a fastball that tops out in the triple digits. His breaking ball is considered to be above-average, and his changeup is a work-in-progress. He is ranked #5 on MLB.com's 2023 international prospects list.

Stats: Pitching for Cuba's U-18 national team, Morales set a record with 161 strikeouts in 82+ innings.

The Future: Like all young pitching prospects, TINSTAAPP rules apply. Morales could become a "frontline starter" as MLB.com predicts. Or he could flame out like so many other mega-hyped young pitching prospects. One year from now, I'd like to think that Morales will rank much higher on this list, but, as with every other player on this page, there are no guarantees.