Playoffs Diary #2: Scouting the Jamboree

Surprise! After all of the thought I put into my last diary entry, I have to start all over again, because Matt Clemm just can't help but wait until the very last possible second before a deadline to play his games.

AAAAAAAAARGH!

Not all of that work went to waste. Everything else I wrote still applies, except for the starting rotation I had set up against Ravenswood. We simply need to figure out who to start in Game Four. Not a big deal.

The Jamboree are a complicated opponent. The record says that they hit right-handers slightly better (.749 OPS) than lefties (.738). But if you look at their lineups, Paul Goldschmidt (1.025) and Jonathan Schoop (1.035) pound lefties to a bloody pulp. Against righties, they have no real full-time threat, although J.D. Davis (.988) is a short-usage weapon.

So, are we better off pitching a righty or lefty against them?

During the regular season, we threw Framber Valdez against Bear Country twice, and he didn't pitch poorly at all. Steven Matz got one start against the Jamboree, and was pounded, but that's only one start. Another lefty, Ranger Suarez, tossed five shutout innings against them.

On the other hand, we let Luis H. Garcia -- a righty-only specialist -- pitch two games against the Jamboree, and he didn't do badly, either.

Let's take a look at their best-possible lineup against lefties:

1. Jonathan Schoop, 2B: 1035/649
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: 1025/855
3. *Jeff McNeill, 3B: 717/705
4. J.D. Martinez, RF: 765/753
5. Tim Anderson, SS: 766/824
6. Yadi Molina, C: 1277/676
7. Derek Hill, CF: 690/1178
8. Phil Gosselin, LF: 677/725

Once you get past the first two batters in the lineup, it's a cake walk. (Molina's numbers are a bit warped, but he's still dangerous.)

Against righties:

1. Myles Straw, CF: 625/803
2. J.D. Davis, 3B: 644/988
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: 1025/855
4. Tim Anderson, SS: 766/824
5. *LaMonte Wade, LF: 209/816
6. J.D. Martinez, RF: 765/753
7. WJ Contreras, C: 539/848
8. #William Difo, 2B: 422/775

This is a much more difficult lineup to navigate. There isn't an easy out. The drastic splits on some of these guys (Straw, Davis, Wade, Contreras, Difo) would make it easy to employ the ol' cover pitcher strategy, but that would be over-thinking it. The best bet, I think, is to start a lefty in Game Four. Call me crazy, but that lefty just may be Framber Valdez.

On the other side of the ball, there isn't much to think about. Matt started his one and only lefty, John Means, against us twice this year. There is no way he would do so in the postseason. We will undoubtedly see Frankie Montas, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb, and Luis Castillo -- and probably in that order. If I see Means on his OLDS roster, however, that changes everything.

In the Bear Country bullpen, their two main lefties are Aroldis Chapman and Alex Vesia. I'm more afraid of Craig Kimbrel than either of them. This other person named Kyle McGowan (no idea who he is) has dominated with a 1.09 ERA this year, but is limited to just two innings. I would be very surprised if he's on the roster.

A few more random observations worth noting:

• Vesia, Chapman, Cease, and Melancon all give up tons of walks. When pinch hitting against any of these guys, it might pay to use a high-OBP guy over a power guy.
• Chapman and Vesia are also extremely homer-prone, so maybe scratch that for those two.
• Straw runs a lot, but also gets caught a lot. Anderson is the one to watch out for on the bases.
• Run all day long on Logan Webb.
• Do NOT run on Straw. 15 assists? Seriously?

Sadly, that is all the time I have this year for scouting. I guess this will have to do for now. Fingers crossed and all.

Playoffs Diary #1: Scouting the 'Tippers

Scouting has always been part of my pre-playoffs routine. More often than not, it makes no difference whatsoever, as the Baseball Gods' random dice rolls don't give a crap about my scouting. Every once in a while, though, it does make a difference. When it comes to the Tournament of Randomness, I will take whatever small advantage I can get.

Before scouting my opponent, I find it useful to scout my own team. You wouldn't think that would be necessary after managing them for 160 games, but it is. This is the time to set aside my preconceived assumptions about my players and how they will perform based on their 2021 MLB numbers. Instead, I need to face reality and look solely at their BDBL performance this season.

Let's start with our starters. At a bare-minimum, I need my starting pitchers to give me six innings without imploding. In baseball, they call this a "quality start." Unfortunately, I have only two starting pitchers that managed to implode in less than half their starts. Surprisingly, my team leader in QS% was Lance Lynn (57%), followed by Shohei Ohtani (54%).

That's it, folks. We have only two reliable starters on this entire roster.

Luis H. Garcia (43%), Jon Gray (41%), and Steven Matz (40%) are the next three in line. The problem is that I cannot use Garcia in the postseason due to his drastic splits. He allowed a .988 OPS against lefties this year. Any savvy opponent would exploit the hell out of that. I hesitate to use Matz, because I used him mostly against sub-.500 opponents this year. I'm not sure that I trust him to face a playoffs-caliber team.

That leaves Jon Gray as our only viable option as a number three starter. The problem is we have no number four. Sadly, a three-man rotation isn't viable. Ohtani and Lynn have Vg durabilities, and Gray is an Av. There is no way we would be able to swing that.

This leaves us with two options. We could go with a traditional four-man rotation that includes Matz. Or, we could have Ranger Suarez make one start. If we go with Option #1, Matz would start one game, on the road, in a good pitcher's park. Suarez would become our long reliever, which is very handy to have. If we go with Option #2, we could keep Gregory Soto in our bullpen to make up for the loss of Suarez.

I ran several sims pitching Matz against the Ravenswood Infidels, and he pitched well enough to inspire some level of confidence. I have done this same exact exercise in the past, however, and found that it is a complete waste of time. A pitcher can pitch brilliantly in ten sims, but then choke when it counts. In the end, I'd rather have Suarez available in my bullpen, so we'll go with Matz as our Game Four starter.

There is one more option on the table. When Ohtani pitches for us, we get an extra hitter in our lineup. If we're facing a right-hander, that extra hitter would be Andrew Benintendi. If we're facing a left-hander, that extra hitter would be Lane Thomas. Benintendi has been very good against righties (.287/.351/.444), but Thomas has been an absolute BEAST (.371/.511/.614) against lefties.

The question is who Ravenswood will start against us in Game Three. They have used Alek Manoah and Michael Fulmer as their #3 and #4 starters against us all season. However, Manoah is limited to only eight innings in the playoffs, and Fulmer was traded. That leaves Hyun-Jin Ryu (a lefty) and Trevor Bauer (a righty) as the two most likely options.

Skiz has used Ryu only twice against us all season, and both were in relief. Would he use him in Game Three? If so, maybe holding Ohtani back until that game would be a wise choice. Do I roll the dice and start Lynn and Gray in the first two games? Or play it safe and start Ohtani and Gray?

That brings us to the bullpen. I'll need to assign a role to each of our relievers, based solely on their BDBL performance this year. Here goes:

• Joe Kelly: our de facto closer. The only "safe" option with low HR allowed and balanced splits. Also an extreme groundball pitcher, which is something to keep in mind with Devers at third. I may want to use a defensive sub if Kelly is on the hill to close in the ninth.
• Ranger Suarez: as noted above, he is our long reliever, and obviously tough on lefties. He, too, is an extreme groundball pitcher.
• Ryan Tepera: arguably our most effective and well-balanced reliever overall, but homer-prone. We can't use him when the score is tight and a power hitter is due to bat.
• Dominic Leone: another "safe" choice who doesn't allow many homers and has balanced splits.
• David Bednar: our reverse-split weapon, great when we need a strikeout.
• Aaron Bummer: lefty killer.
• Luis A. Garcia: righty killer.
• Jake McGee: ol' reliable, balanced splits, but can be a little homer-prone.

I feel good about this pitching staff. They haven't always inspired me with confidence, but it is what it is. The Random God of Dice Rolls will do whatever they will do regardless of how I feel about it.

Let's move on to the offense.

Lineup vs. LH:

1. Ramon Laureano, RF: .325/.432/.533

2. Trea Turner, 2B: .401/.464/.759

3. *Brandon Belt, 1B: .319/.425/.625

4. Mark Canha, CF: .282/.392/.597

5. *Shohei Ohtani, RF: .241/.319/.652

6. Chad Pinder, SS: .301/.360/.512

7. Andy Ibanez, 3B: .352/.368/.560 (for LAU)

8. Austin Nola, C: .368/.410/.500

Needless to say, this is a very strong lineup -- which makes me believe Skiz will not, in fact, start Ryu against us. The newsmaking headline here is that Rafael Devers, our 50-homer beast, would ride the pine. This is due to his abysmal .266/.326/.424 batting line against southpaws.

Lineup vs. RH:

1. *Brandon Crawford, SS: .315/.394/.545

2. *Rafael Devers, 3B: .261/.330/.619

3. Mark Canha, LF: .263/.393/.465

4. *Brandon Belt, 1B: .257/.365/.576

5. *Shohei Ohtani, RF: .217/.353/.485

6. Lorenzo Cain, CF: .300/.374/.535

7. *Zack Collins, C: .258/.405/.478

8. Trea Turner, 2B: .271/.305/.402

When Ohtani is pitching, Andrew Benintendi (.287/.351/.444) would be our extra hitter in the lineup.

I believe that lineup above will be the only one we use in this series, as I don't think Skiz will use Ryu against us. I know I wouldn't!

If that is the case, then we don't have many options on our bench against Ravenswood's predominantly right-handed bullpen. Benintendi (794) and Nola (767) are the only hitters from that group that posted a 700+ OPS against righties this year.

The playoffs roster is set. The lineups are set. The bullpen roles are set. The only lingering question is the order in which our starters will pitch. It all hinges on how confident I am in Skiz using Ryu as a starter in this series. If I see Ryu on his playoffs roster, then that tells me he could start in either Game Three or Four. If he starts him in Game Four, then it doesn't matter, anyway, since Matz is starting that game. I tend to believe that if Ryu does get a turn in the rotation, it would be in that game.

Next up: Scouting the Infidels.

Chapter Six Review

Chapter Six was a chapter of good news and bad news for the Salem Cowtippers.

The good news is that we finished with 100+ wins for the tenth time in franchise history. The bad news is that we barely managed this feat by clawing our way to victory in the final two games of the season.

The bad news is that we finished below .500 (13-15) on the chapter. The good news is that it didn't matter, since we clinched the division long ago.

The bad news is that we lost our #1 seed in the playoffs. The good news is that home field advantage only comes into play if a series goes the distance.

It would have been nice to have outscored our opponents by 300 runs this season, but we missed that magical number by a lousy five runs. We were actually outscored in Chapter Five by that same figure. Only sixteen teams in history have managed to outscore their opponents by 300+.

Chapter Six was an unmitigated disaster all around. We posted a 4.50 team ERA, which ranks among the bottom half in the league. We allowed a whopping 38 home runs and walked more batters than all but two OL teams.

Offensively, we hit just .242/.322/.423 as a team, and scored just 4.6 runs per game. Contrast that performance with Chapter One, when we hit .269/.355/.491 as a team, and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game, and you can see just how far this team has fallen since then.

Our record over the six chapters shows an alarming trend:

Chapter One: 23-5 (.821)
Chapter Two: 19-9 (.679)
Chapter Three: 14-10 (.583)
Chapter Four: 15-9 (.625)
Chapter Five: 17-10 (.607)
Chapter Six: 13-15 (.464)

Basically, the only chapter where we improved on the previous chapter was Chapter Four. Since the all-star break, the Salem Cowtippers are just 45-35 (.563). The Akron Ryche (.724), Charlotte Mustangs (.667), Ravenswood Infidels (.658), Chicago Black Sox (.653), Kansas Law Dogs (.618), and Buckingham Sovereigns (.579) have all played better baseball in the second half than the Salem Cowtippers.

All of the above is the bad news. But...there is some good news about all of the above as well. I will cover this in more depth in the Playoffs Preview, but suffice it to say that the team that played in the second half of this season barely resembles the team that will be playing this coming November.

A few noteworthy performances to wrap up the 2022 regular season:

• Shohei Ohtani and Rafael Devers each hit 50 home runs, becoming only the second and third Cowtippers in franchise history to hit 50+ (joining Sammy Sosa, who hit 60 in 2002.)
• Ohtani also went 15-2 on the mound, with a 3.71 ERA in 143 innings, only 119 hits allowed, and 167 K's. He should get some serious consideration for the OL MVP award. If he doesn't win, it would be the dumbest vote in league history (which is truly saying a lot.)
• Ranger Suarez (14-2, 2.74 ERA in 115 IP) earned every dime of the money we spent on him last winter. He started six games for us, and was one of six relievers with three or more saves this year.
• Lance Lynn somehow managed to win 17 games despite sucking so much ass. We expected a Cy Young performance from him when we acquired him, but he was merely mid-rotation quality. He was one of several pitchers on our roster who mysteriously walked way more batters (3.0 BB/9) than he did in MLB (2.6) for no reason whatsoever. He also allowed 20% more homers than he did in MLB despite pitching in a much better pitcher's ballpark in the BDBL. And lefties absolutely crushed him (.285/.367/.500) for no logical reason whatsoever, given his MLB numbers (.227/.302/.375).
• We expected our bullpen to be record-setting, but it was merely fantastic. Dominic Leone (2.35 ERA in 57+ IP), Luis A. Garcia (2.38 in 34), David Bednar (2.47 in 65+), Ryan Tepera (2.56 in 66+), Joe Kelly (2.70 in 46+), Suarez (2.74 in 115), and Jake McGee (3.17 in 59+) all had their moments of instability, but overall lived up to their expectations.
• Trea Turner (.298/.339/.477) got off to a painfully slow start, but picked it up at the end. He wasn't quite the MVP candidate we expected him to be, but he came through with 30 doubles and 27 homers, scored 102 runs, and plated 113. He also swiped 25 bases for good measure.
• Lorenzo Cain (.294/.373/.532) was one of the pleasant surprises of this season. Likewise, our catching platoon of Zack Collins (.244/.393/.452) and Austin Nola (.329/.391/.447) performed much better than we expected.
• Mark Canha (.267/.393/.495) actually led our team in runs created (119.5), and whacked 28 homers. For a guy who was ridiculed during the auction, I'd say we got our $5.5 million worth from him.
• In addition to Ohtani, Devers, Turner, and Canha, we had two more batters hit 25 or more homers this year: Brandon Belt (29) and Brandon Crawford (25). Crawford (.306/.384/.523) looked like an MVP candidate at times this season. So did Belt (.270/.378/.586) for that matter.

Looking Ahead to '23

Now that the MLB regular season has ended, it is time to look forward to the 2023 BDBL season. What does the future hold in store for the Salem Cowtippers? Well, folks, I have seen the future, and it is bleak. Very, very, bleak.

We'll start with the good news. Trust me, this won't take long.

THE GOOD NEWS

Shohei Ohtani should be a Cy Young type of pitcher in 2023, given his '22 MLB performance: 166 IP, 124 H, 14 HR, 44 BB, 219 K, 636/518 splits. He will also likely be the BDBL's best designated hitter. (Yes, it pains me to even type those words.) He hit .278/.370/.551 against right-handers, but was rather ordinary (.263/.329/.459) against lefties.

The same is true of Rafael Devers, who crushed righties (.304/.374/.557), but appears to have lost the ability to hit southpaws (.272/.315/.424) in recent years. As he ages, he's becoming more and more of a platoon player. Not good.

Adley Rutschman will finally (FINALLY!!!!) make his full-time BDBL debut in 2023. (Although it won't be his rookie debut, since we used him in 2021, thanks to the projection disk.) Like Ohtani and Devers, Rutschman crushes righties (.280/.386/.503), but struggles so badly against lefties (.173/.287/.265) that he'll be platooned with Garrett Stubbs (.333/.429/.750 vs. LH.)

Trea Turner (.298/.343/.466) and Andrew Benintendi (.304/.373/.399) also had decent seasons at the plate, and have well-balanced splits.

Our starting rotation looks very strong. In addition to Ohtani, we have Framber Valdez (201-166-11-67-194, 505/621), who would be the ace of most pitching staffs. Ranger Suarez (155 IP, 538/757 splits), Luis H. Garcia (157 IP, 723/623), and Jon Gray (127 IP, 731/602) are all decent mid-rotation arms. Lance Lynn (122 IP, 719/681) didn't pitch much (especially at his salary), but will be useful for half a season. Late pickup J.P. Sears (70 IP, 684/723) is another useful part-timer.

THE BAD NEWS

We currently have no first baseman, no second baseman, and no right fielder for 2023. We also have no bullpen aside from David Bednar (52 IP, 545/670 splits) and Kyle Nelson (37, 528/629). Those are way too many important holes to fill this late in the game, and I honestly don't know how on earth we'll fill them, because...

THE WORST NEWS

We have no money!

Check that: we have less than no money. We are $4 million in the hole, actually. That figure is only possible because we plan to release Gregory Soto, Dominic Leone, Jake McGee, Ryan Tepera, and Ramon Laureano. Those five players will cost us $4.9 million to release. Add J.B. Wendelken's cut (which is already on the books) and the grand sum of release penalties will be $6 million.

We are forced to carry the dead carcasses of Brandon Belt ($5.5M), Brandon Crawford ($1.1M), Nick Senzel ($2.1M), and Steven Matz ($6M) due to their contract lengths. That's $14.7 million in salary paid to four players who won't play a single day for Salem in 2023. They won't even be on the bench. They're all that bad. They'll also take up valuable space on our 35-man roster, prohibiting us from filling those spots with players that are actually useful in some way.

Add it all up, and we're paying $20.7 million -- one-third of our total team payroll -- to players who won't add any benefit at all to the 2023 Cowtippers. We're also paying Lynn $7.5 million for half a season. We're also paying Mark Canha $5.5 million to be a thoroughly-mediocre outfielder.

SUMMING IT UP

To sum it all up, we have no bullpen next year, no first baseman, no right fielder, no second baseman, and we're $4 million in the hole. We not only have no money to spend to fill those huge gaping holes, but we'll be forced to trade a very good player just to free some salary. In other words, Salem fans: we're fucked.

Enjoy whatever is left of 2022's success. We may not see it again for quite some time.