Opening Day, 2020

Opening Day is always so exciting because it is so filled with hope and optimism. I am very optimistic about this coming season, and I have a great deal of hope in a number of areas. Here is what I hope will happen over the course of the next ten months:

Hope #1: We win back-to-back McGowan Division titles.

We used to take division titles for granted in Salem. Not anymore. Last year was our first division title since 2008. That was also the year we last won back-to-back titles. All three teams in our division are concentrating on the future. If we don't win the division, then something went terribly wrong!

Hope #2: Back-to-back BDBL championships.

Obviously, this is somewhat of a pipe dream, given how long it took for us to win the first one -- in six attempts. But, I think every team hopes to win the BDBL championship at the beginning of every season. If not, then why bother playing at all?

Hope #3: A Cy Young award for one of our three aces.

We haven't seen a Salem pitcher win a Cy Young award since 2008. It's hard to believe Erik Bedard won a single Cy Young award, but he actually won back-to-back awards for us in 2007 and 2008. The only other Cowtipper to win that award was the first-ever Cowtipper, Greg Maddux, back in our first-ever season, 1999. It would be nice to see Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, or (especially) Stephen Strasburg win that award in 2020.

Hope #4: Three 20-game winners.

All three of those names mentioned above are fully-capable of winning 20 games this year. We haven't had a 20-game winner in Salem since 2015 (Scherzer.) We have never had two 20-game winners on the same team. In fact, the list of 20-game winners in Salem is very short: Greg Maddux (1999), Mike Mussina (2002), Brandon Webb (2004), Curt Schilling (2005), Jeremy Bonderman (2007), Erik Bedard (2008), Felix Hernandez (2010), and Max Scherzer (2014 and 2015).

Hope #5: An MVP award for Rafael Devers.

After all the times we resisted the urge to trade him, it sure would be sweet to see Devers reward us for our patience with an MVP award. You have to go all the way back to 2002 (Sammy Sosa) to find an MVP winner from the Salem organization. John Olerud (1999) was the only other Salem MVP.

Hope #6: Adley Rutschman gets the call.

I know he will likely waste away in Double- and Triple-A this year, but it would be so nice if Rutschman got enough MLB playing time to make a difference for us next season. It's very unlikely to happen, but that's why they call it "hope."

Hope #7: Nick Madrigal makes the White Sox club out of Spring Training.

This is another longshot, but we could really use a second baseman next year, and Madrigal would be a perfect fit.

Hope #8: Max Scherzer stays healthy.

We made a huge, $15.5 million, investment in an aging pitcher coming off of an injury late last season. It was a huge risk, but big payoffs often require huge risks. Our fingers and toes are crossed that Scherzer enjoys a healthy MLB season.

Hope #9: Andrew Benintendi steps up.

We've been patiently waiting (along with Red Sox Nation) for Benny to become the all-star-caliber player he is supposed to be. A sub-.800 OPS, with home runs in the teens, and sub-par defense is not what we expected when we made him a franchise player a year ago. He really needs to step up his game in 2020.

Hope #10: Nick Senzel fixes whatever is broken.

Senzel has said that he changed his swing last year, at the advice of the Reds coaching staff, and it messed him up the entire season. Here's to hoping that he goes back to his old swing and becomes an asset for us in 2021.

Hope #11: Shohei Ohtani pitches 150 innings.

It was great fun moving Ohtani around from the starting rotation to the outfield to the bullpen last year, but it would be so much more fun if he'd just pitch enough innings that we could use him as a full-time (or mostly full-time) starter. 150 innings seems like a reasonable benchmark, although I'm sure the Angels will baby him the entire season.

Hope #12: Spencer Howard pitches 100 innings in MLB.

Our 2021 starting rotation will include (if they stay healthy and productive) Scherzer, Strasburg, and Sonny Gray. Strasburg and Sonny will be pitching their final year under contract in 2021, however. John Gray is signed through 2023. We need young blood in our starting rotation, and Howard seems as though he would fit perfectly. We were bombarded with trade offers for Howard all winter, but we held firm. Howard is our guy. It would be nice if he began contributing sooner rather than later.

Draft Day Diary: Day Nine

Well, it's a good thing we decided not to go with Plan B to "spread out" our cash and fill several holes in our roster. That plan included signing Jake Odorizzi at a salary of $7 million and Yasmani Grandal for $8 million. Odorizzi ended up getting $8.5 million, and last night Grandal got $9.5 million! Who knows what the max bids were for those two!

This is why we do everything possible to avoid the auction every year. It's completely unpredictable. And all it takes is one delusional owner to drive a player's salary through the roof. In retrospect, although the Scherzer signing is very risky and puts us in a tight financial position this year, and for the next two years, it was probably the best move we could have made in this auction. If we had gone with Plan B, we would have ended up with Steven Matz pitching every fifth game.

Which brings me to my next bit of news.

The Scherzer signing permanently placed Matz on our reserve roster this year. We had four pitchers (Matz, Daniel Norris, Mike Montgomery, and Trevor Cahill) doing nothing except taking up valuable space on our 35-man roster. Something had to be done. To that end, we placed a Selling post on the league forum, and found a taker for Matz and Norris. We got two draft picks in return, which is a huge relief, as we still have several holes to fill.

Given how crazy this auction has unfolded, it could not have turned out better for us. I feel as though we will be in an excellent position heading into this season.

2020 Salem Farm Report

It was once a given that the Salem Cowtippers franchise owned a top-ten farm system. Salem ranked among the top ten in the annual BDBL Farm Report eleven years in a row. That all changed in 2011. Since then, our farm has ranked among the top ten only twice in nine years. We strongly suspect that we will run that streak to ten years in 2020.

The strength of our farm system lies in the players we trade away (Wander F'ing Franco, Yordan F'ing Alvarez, and Will Smith are only the three most recently traded that come to mind.) But another factor that prevents our farm system from ranking highly in the Farm Report is the fact that many of our top farm players aren't yet eligible for the report.

The core of our 2020 team (Andrew Benintendi, Trea Turner, Shohei Ohtani, Jon Gray, Stephen Strasburg, Rafael Devers) all came from our farm system. Which makes you wonder if the annual farm report is truly reflective of a franchise's farm strength.

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 21). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

Background: Rutschman was the #1 overall pick of the 2019 MLB draft following another completely dominant season (.411/.575/.751) with Oregon State University. In addition to his bat, which grades 60+ for hitting ability and power, he is also an outstanding defensive catcher. Despite playing only 20 games in the New York Penn League, he was ranked as the league's #1 prospect by opposing managers.

Stats: Rutschman's pro career got off to a rocky start, as it was delayed for several weeks by a case of mono. Once he finally got underway, it took him a while to shake off the rust. He hit just .267/.353/.467 in six Gulf Coast League games. He was quickly promoted to the New York Penn League, where he hit .325/.413/.481 in twenty games. He then finished the year in the Low-A Sally League, where he batted a paltry .143/.245/.310. Overall, he hit just .261/.354/.425 in 39 games (134 AB's), with 4 home runs, and a 20/28 BB/K ratio.

The Future: Give Rutschman a mulligan for his 2019 stats. In the end, they will be completely irrelevant. He will hit for average and power, from both sides of the plate, for many years to come. It is very tempting to want to rush him straight to the big leagues, but we expect he won't be starting every day for us until at least 2023. We can wait.

2. Austin Martin, 3b

Born: March 23, 1999 (age 20.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 170. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2019.

Background: Martin is projected to be among the top picks in the 2020 MLB draft, and could very well be the first pick overall. (If so, he would be the second #1 overall pick from Salem in the past two years, and third top-five pick in the past three years.) He is considered to be the best pure hitter in this draft class, with the ability to make consistent hard contact. He has played every infield position except shortstop during his college career, with above-average range at second and third base. There is speculation that he could also end up in center field.

Stats: In his sophomore season last year, Martin hit .407/.495/.635 overall, with 10 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 36/31 BB/K ratio.

The Future: Some pundits have compared Martin to another former Salem farmhand, Alex Bregman. We stupidly traded Bregman for a chance to "win now." We won't be making that same mistake with Martin. If he ends up sticking at third base, he could face a roadblock with newly-franchised Rafael Devers entrenched at the hot corner, but we'll deal with that "problem" if and when it arises.

3. Nick Madrigal, 2b
Born: March 5, 1997 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-7. Wt: 165. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2017.

Background: The reviews are mixed on Nick Madrigal. Some scouts and pundits believe he'll be nothing more than a slap-hitter. A short, slightly-speedier, Placido Polanco. Others believe there is something more to his game. They see his elite batting eye and bat control and believe he could be something special.

Stats: After a fairly mediocre 2018 debut, Madrigal seemed to get off on another mediocre start in 2019, hitting just .268/.341/.371 in the High-A Carolina League. The White Sox organization challenged him with a promotion to Double-A, and he responded in a big way. In 44 games (171 AB's), he hit .351/.410/.439, earning a ranking as the #17 prospect in the Southern League. He was then promoted to Triple-A, where he just kept raking: .342/.411/.439 in 114 AB's.

The Future: The power isn't there yet -- if it ever comes. In 634 career at-bats in the minor leagues, Madrigal has hit just 3 home runs, with 34 doubles, and 5 triples. We didn't draft him for his power-hitting, though. We drafted him for his on-base ability (.375 career OBP in the minors), his defense, and his base-stealing ability (45 career steals, 19 caught stealing.) We still believe he can become an all-star at the second base position. And since that is one of the only positions on our team that isn't locked in with a franchise player, that's a good thing!

4. Spencer Howard, p
Born: July 28, 1996 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: It's difficult to think of another minor league pitcher who raised his stock as much over the 2019 season (and it was only the second half of the season, really) as Howard. He was barely a top-100 prospect at the beginning of the year (#96 in our BDBL Farm Report), but will likely be ranked among the top 50 this coming February.

Stats: Howard missed most of the first half of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury. He seemed to return stronger than ever, and finished the season with his best efforts of the year. He split his 2019 season between High-A and Double-A. Combined, he allowed 39 hits in 65+ innings, with only 13 walks, and 86 strikeouts. He then capped his year with a stint in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 2.11 ERA in 21+ innings, with 27 K's, and an opponents average of just .137.


The Future: There is now talk of Howard being the Philadelphia Phillies' ace of the future. That's a long way to come from being ranked #96 just a year ago! There was considerable interest in Howard throughout the 2020 winter trading season in the BDBL. We resisted the temptation to trade him, because we believe in him, and because we need fresh, young, arms in our big league rotation. If Howard continues the career arc he set last season, he could be helping our club in some capacity as early as 2021.

5. Asa Lacy, p
Born: June 2, 1999 (age 20). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 214. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #2), 2019.


Background: Lacy ranked among the top ten in NCAA Division I in opponents batting average (.162) and strikeout rate (13.2 per nine) as a sophomore last year. He is considered to be among the most polished pitchers in the 2020 MLB draft class, and the top left-handed pitcher in the class. He has four pitches that grade 50 or higher, including a fastball that grades 65.

Stats: In 88+ innings last year, Lacy allowed just 49 hits, with 43 walks and 130 strikeouts.

The Future: Lacy projects to be selected in the upper half of the first round of the 2020 MLB draft. Fangraphs currently has him ranked as the #16 prospect in the draft, while MLB.com has him ranked at #5. Regardless of where he is picked, Lacy projects as a top-of-the-rotation left-handed power pitcher.

6. Garrett Mitchell, of
Born: September 4, 1998 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 204. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #7), 2019.


Background: Mitchell is currently ranked as the #6 prospect in the 2020 MLB draft by MLB.com and #20 by FanGraphs. He is a pure power/speed prospect, grading 60+ in both areas of the game. He is likely to stick in center field as a pro. His only downside, it seems, is that he suffers from Type 1 Diabetes.

Stats: As a sophomore with the UCLA Bruins last year, Mitchell hit .349/.418/.566, with 14 doubles, 12 triples, 6 home runs, and a 27/41 BB/K ratio. He also stole 18 bases in 22 attempts.

The Future: If Mitchell achieves his full potential, it sounds as though he can become a Brett Gardner type of player in the big leagues, only with a much better arm.


7. Luis Rodriguez, of
Born: September 6, 2002 (age 17). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 175. Acquired: 1st round, 2020 winter farm draft.

Background: Rodriguez was among the top prospects available in last July's "J2" international class. He is a well-rounded ballplayer with a plus bat, plus power potential, athleticism, speed, and defensive ability. He hits to all fields and is said to have an advanced approach at the plate.

Stats: None available.

The Future: Any 16-year-old prospect is a wildcard, one-in-a-million, lottery ticket. Some are less risky than others, and we believe Rodriguez is one of them. His scouting reports remind us a lot of Rafael Devers, back when he was a 16-year-old Latin America lottery ticket. Somehow, despite all the odds, we managed to hang onto Devers and didn't trade him away like so many others. We hope Rodriguez's career takes the same path.

8. Jackson Kowar, p
Born: Oct 4, 1996 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 180. Acquired: via trade, winter 2019.

Background: Kowar has done nothing but post impressive numbers everywhere he has pitched, from college to the pros. Last year, he seemed to step it up a notch while facing tougher competition, and yet we still don't hear much about him from the prospect pundits.

Stats: Kowar split his time almost exactly between High-A and Double-A last year. He tossed 74 innings at High-A, allowed 68 hits and 22 walks, with 66 strikeouts, and was ranked the #3 prospect in the league at the end of the season. He threw another 74+ innings at Double-A, in a tough hitters league, and continued his solid performance: 73 hits, 21 walks, 78 strikeouts. For his career, he has pitched 174+ innings, has allowed 160 hits, 14 homers, 55 walks, and has struck out 166 batters.

The Future: We assume Kowar will return to the Double-A Texas League to start the 2020 season. It would not surprise us to see a mid-season promotion to Triple-A, followed by a short stint in the big leagues -- probably in the bullpen. It would be nice to see the pundits notice what's happening with his career.

9. Garrett Crochet, p
Born: June 21, 1999 (age 20). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 218. Acquired: 3rd round, 2020 winter farm draft.

Background: You can pretty much just copy-and-paste Asa Lacy's scouting report into this section. They're both left-handed. They both throw hard. They both are ranked among the top ten prospects in the 2020 MLB draft. The big difference is that Lacy has performed at a high level longer than Crochet -- but Crochet is catching up quickly.

Stats: As a sophomore at the University of Tennessee, Crochet allowed 67 hits and 22 walks in 65 innings, with 81 strikeouts. His season was cut short by a line drive that broke his jaw in the middle of the season.

The Future: According to reports, Crochet showed significant gains in fall practice, adding a couple miles of hour to his fastball. That led some outlets to bump him up on the prospects ranking. If he can maintain those gains, he could very well find himself among the top ten picks in the 2020 draft.

10. J.T. Ginn, p
Born: May 20, 1999 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 192. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2019.

Background: Ginn is a draft-eligible sophomore at Mississippi State University. He was selected in the first round of the 2018 draft, but did not sign. He is now projected to be a first round pick for the second year in a row. Ginn flashes two plus pitches, a fastball and slider, that each grade 60 on the 20-80 scale.

Stats: Ginn tossed 86+ innings as a freshman. He allowed 72 hits, only 19 walks, and just one home run, while striking out 105.


The Future: Combing the scouting reports with his outstanding performance as a freshman, it's difficult to believe Ginn isn't ranked higher by the punditry. That could change by Draft Day.

Draft Day Diary: Day Four

In the end, we went with Plan A: All or Nothing. It simply made the most sense at this time. If we had spread our money around instead, it would have forced us to sit some bats that have a good deal of value. If we had signed Yasmani Grandal, we would have had to sit Tom Murphy against lefties. That would be a waste.

Likewise, if we had signed Christian Yelich, it would mean sitting Shohei Ohtani against righties and Andrew Benintendi against lefties. Another waste.

If we had signed Jake Odorizzi, we'd be forced to pay upwards of $8 million for a pitcher with a spotty track record. We'd then be locked into him for $8 million in 2021, and $9 million in 2022. No, thanks.

We got the guy we wanted in Max Scherzer. I'm more than a little apprehensive about his ugly splits, but we can deal with that. Our starting rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, Jon Gray, and Anibal Sanchez is, without question, the best in the BDBL. I have great confidence that rotation, alone, will carry us to another division title.

Our farm draft came to a close this morning with the selection of Carmen Mlodzinski -- yet another top projected pick in the coming MLB amateur draft. According to the MLB.com ranking, we now own four of the top ten prospects in that draft, and seven of the top twenty. We feel that Tanner Burns will work his way into that top 20 by Draft Day as well. Our farm system will likely rank among the lower half of the league in the coming Farm Report, but it's about to be replenished in a big way.

Draft Day Diary: Day Three

As it turned out, we didn't need to waste time going back-and-forth during our last pick, as Garrett Crochet was still available when our pick came back around. I don't know why the league is allowing me to completely monopolize the 2020 MLB draft, but I'll take it. As it stands, we have four of the projected top ten picks in that draft already, and six of the top twenty. We will likely draft a seventh shortly. If you gave any MLB team the chance to draft seven of the top twenty players in any draft, they'd leap at that chance. The 2020 draft seems to have better-than-average depth, which makes this all the more astounding.

My auction strategy is crumbling before my eyes -- as it always seems to do. As predicted, Luhning sniped the deGrom auction and bid in $500K increments during the final two minutes of the auction until he won the bid. Frankly, I'm shocked that deGrom went for "only" $17.5 million, given the prices I've seen in years past -- and in this auction already.

Our "Plan B" to sign Jake Odorizzi for $7 million seems like a pipe dream at this point. Trevor Bauer, who is far worse than Odorizzi by almost every measurement, is currently fetching an $8 million payday -- and there are still seven hours remaining in his auction! I really don't understand how Jacob deGrom doesn't even earn double what Bauer gets, but more often than not, this league and these auctions are anything but rational.

Right now, the bidding for Max Scherzer is already $14 million. The team currently winning that bid is the Great Lakes Sphinx -- which makes zero sense. Great Lakes has no pitching whatsoever. They have only one starter (Mike Fiers) with more than 114 innings. They have over $32 million to spend, but spending almost half of that on one pitcher isn't going to help matters. This is the Jim Doyle strategy all over again!

If we bid $15 million on Scherzer, we would have enough left to fill that right field position for $3 million, and another $2 million to fill the platoon catching situation. If we bid the same $17 million we bid on deGrom, we'd basically have nothing left to fill those holes.

As it stands, we will have to live with some combination of the following:

-- Steven Matz pitching every fifth game for us.

-- Shohei Ohtani playing right fielder against right-handers.

-- Some scrub catching against right-handers.

-- Jose Ramirez playing every day out of position at second base.

-- A shitty bullpen.

-- No backup infielders, and no bench depth whatsoever.

Of those six shitty options, which is the shittiest? To me, the range of shittiness goes from top to bottom, in order. I can deal with no bench depth. I can add a bullpen arm later through trade. I can deal with Ramirez at second. I can deal with a seven-man lineup against righties (at least for a while.) I can live with Ohtani's shitty defense.

I cannot live with Matz pitching more than a spot start here and there. He SUCKS. He will lose every game he pitches for us. Because of this, I feel like I have to go all-in on Scherzer. If we don't get him, we may be stuck with Matz, and I can't have that.

There are plenty of other starting pitchers available in this auction, but none that I'm crazy about spending "Type H" money to get, other than maybe Odorizzi. But if someone as shitty as Bauer gets $8 million, what on earth will Odorizzi fetch??

I'm placing a $16 million bid on Scherzer at some point today. Pray for me.

Draft Day Diary: Day Two

As I should have predicted, Jared Kelley was selected just minutes before our pick came up. Surprise, surprise. The good news is that we ended up with the guy we had identified from the beginning as our #1 pick: Luis Rodriguez. Unfortunately for Luis, he joins some pretty sketchy company. Our history of making good picks in the first round of the winter farm draft is abysmal, dating all the way back to our epic disastrous pick of Adam Johnson in 2001.

Since that pick, our #1 picks have been: Chris Burke, Jeremy Brown, Brent Clevlen, Jake Stevens, Chris Marrero, Dellin Betances, Eric Hosmer, A.J. Pollock, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Parker, Joe Panik, Hiroyuki Nakajima, Stephen Piscotty, Phil Bickford, Byung-Ho Park, J.B. Bukauskas, and Yusei Kikuchi. Not a star in the lot, and only four or five useful players out of eighteen.

We may kick ourselves down the road for not taking Mick Abel instead of Rodriguez. Abel and Kelley are pretty much #1 and #1(a) in the prep class this year. We just really like the upside of Rodriguez. Time will tell, as they say.

Our #2 pick came quickly. That choice came down to lefty college hurler Garrett Crochet or 16-year-old Alexander Mojica. We just learned of Mojica through an article in Baseball America. Figuring that others have probably read the same article, and since we already have several college pitchers in our system, we went with Mojica. Maybe he's the next Fernando Tatis. Or maybe he's just another Dominican League aberration.

In the auction, we decided to put a $17 million bid on deGrom. That is our max bid, regardless of what happens. The question was: do we place the bid early or wait until the last minute? Given that we believe deGrom will go for more than $17 million, it doesn't really matter. It's quite possible that someone will bid over $17 million for the sole purpose of keeping him off our roster. I'm okay with that.

As for Canha, I'm throwing in the towel. $5.5 million is a great price for him. $6M, or even $6.5M, would be a great price. But I just can't seem to fit him into our budget, and I'm not convinced that he will be a $6.5M (or $7.5M) player two years from now at age 33.

So now we wait. It would be a complete shock if we win the bid on deGrom. I fully expect him to be signed by Chris Luhning of the Law Dogs. Chris will then win 90+ games with deGrom, and then trade him next winter, freeing $17+ million in cash. He does it every single year.

Our focus then turns to Max Scherzer, who heads lot #2. I'm hesitant to bid $17 million on Scherzer, given his age and (especially) his lopsided splits. We'll see how that goes. Yelich then leads the next lot. Although it would be tremendous to add Yelich to our lineup, he doesn't fill a pressing need for us.

Draft Day Diary: Day One

The farm draft is well underway, with our pick coming up in just moments. Most of the tough decisions have already been made. I had narrowed down our #1 pick to three prospects: Luis Rodriguez, Jared Kelley, and Nick Gonzales. Bob Sylvester nabbed Gonzales earlier this morning, so that leaves only two. Both are likely to fall to us.

Rodriguez has been #1 on my list for a while now. His scouting reports remind me of Rafael Devers at the same point in his career. He has a plus hit tool, with plus power, hits to all fields, has an advanced approach, and great athleticism. There are two good reasons why he has slipped to #2 on my list, however.

First, we need pitching in the Salem organization more than another bat. Kelley has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Despite the fact that he's in high school, he could advance quickly up the ladder.

Secondly, Rodriguez seems to be slipping under the radar. No one is talking about him. The only article I can find online that mentions him, and was written after July of last year, was one article from Baseball America. Unless you specifically looked for that article, you'd never find it. So, I think it's possible that we could wait until the second round to select him. It's a gamble, but the farm draft is all about taking gambles. If Rodriguez falls to Los Altos, however, I will be kicking myself for the next decade.

On the auction front, we currently own the top bid for Jacob deGrom at $14 million -- which happens to be the max bid that I entered, just to prime the pump a little. Obviously, if we ended up with deGrom at $14 million, I'd be ecstatic. That won't happen.

Unfortunately, our "Plan B", Mark Canha, is also in this first auction lot, and he's already sporting a "Type H" salary of $5.5 million. As much as I would love to add deGrom, Max Scherzer, or (especially) Christian Yelich, I don't think it would be in the best interest of this team. We have too many holes to fill, and we don't have enough money to fill them.

If we add one of the Big Three, then we're basically resigning ourselves to playing with the roster we already have. That isn't the worst option, but it isn't the best, either. The thought of playing Shohei Ohtani in right field every day against right-handers doesn't thrill me. Neither does the thought of sending some $100,000 catcher behind the plate against righties. Neither does the thought of starting Steven Matz every fifth game. And neither does the thought of heading into this season with the bullpen we currently have.

The more I look at it, the more I believe something like this makes much more sense than the all-or-nothing approach:

Jake Odorizzi: $7 million
Yasmani Grandal: $8 million
Platoon RF: $3 million
Relief pitcher: $2 million
Six scrubs: $100K each

Of course, the problem with this strategy is that if any of the above players fetches more than the estimates I listed, the entire strategy falls apart. We have no "Plan B" to fill that fifth starting pitcher slot if we don't get deGrom, Scherzer, or Odorizzi. We have no backup plan at catcher if we don't get Grandal. And it's almost guaranteed that someone takes all of the best platoon right fielders before that $3 million pick gets all the way down to #23.

Basically, we're kind of screwed no matter what we do. Regardless of what happens in this auction and draft, we will need to wheel and deal to plug some of these holes.

2020 Draft Day Prep

Draft Day is once again upon us, which means it's time to talk strategy.

We have $20.7 million to spend on ten open roster spots. If the season were to begin today, we could play with the roster we have right now, so there are no urgent holes needing to be filled. That's the good news. The bad news is that there are some holes I would like to fill, and there aren't many palatable options to fill them.

Given our situation, we could go with the old "all-or-nothing" strategy, where we place all of our eggs in one basket, and just live with the rest of the roster as it stands. This strategy is particularly temping this winter, given the presence of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in the free agent pool. Adding either one of those aces would push Sonny Gray to #2 in our rotation, and Stephen Strasburg (who would easily be a #1 for most teams) all the way to #3. This would give us a huge competitive advantage.

It's also tempting to add Christian Yelich to our lineup. As it stands, we would have to play Shohei Ohtani out of position in right field against right-handed pitching. We could really use a right fielder, and Yelich is the best the game has to offer. The only downside is that he is left-handed, which would make our lineup very lefty-heavy, with Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers already written in our lineup in indelible ink through the 2026 season. However, this isn't much of a worry. The fact is that players like Yelich don't come around often. At 28 years old, he's in the prime of his career. Signing him for two more years after this one seems like the safest bet we could make.

Our catching position is a black hole against right-handed pitching. There are several part-time options we could use there. Or, we could spend big bucks for Yasmani Grandal. His bat would be almost as valuable as Yelich's, and at a position where it is difficult to find offense. He would also give us a stopgap solution until Adley Rutschman arrives. By the time Grandal's contract would end after 2022, Rutschman should be ready to step in for the next decade, if all works out as we hope it will. Grandal would likely cost at least $8 million, which would make Yelich, deGrom, and Scherzer unattainable.

If we fail to sign Yelich, Mark Canha is an interesting option for right field. He would be spectacular for us this year as a full-time right fielder, pushing Ohtani to the bench (or part-time play.) However, his future isn't nearly as predictable as Yelich's. Although we believe Canha can repeat his 2019 performance -- or at least come close -- he's never played at that level before. At age 30, is this his "new norm?" Or is it a fluke? Are we willing to bet upwards of $7 million that he can repeat that performance?

Another problem with Canha is that he appears in the very first lot of the auction. We'll have to decide quickly which way we go. If it looks like he can be signed for less than $7 million, we may be forced to bail out on Yelich. deGrom, Scherzer, and Yelich are leading the first three lots, so our "all-or-nothing" strategy can be a moot point by day four if we fail to sign any of those guys. I would prefer the order to be: Yelich, deGrom, Scherzer. But we never seem to get what we want when it comes to the auction.

I'm not thrilled with our bullpen at the moment, but trying to add a closer in the auction/draft, without a high draft pick, is an expensive endeavor. It means going "Type H" on a relief pitcher, which is something we've never done before, and would like to avoid ever doing. We could live with our bullpen for now, and add a piece or two later in the year.

So, after all is said and done, here is where we stand:

Strategy #1: "All or nothing"

deGrom/Scherzer/Yelich: $17 million
Backup catcher: $2 million
Platoon outfielder: $1 million
7 scrubs: $100K each

Strategy #2: "Spread it out"

Grandal: $8 million
Canha: $6.5 million
Reliever: $5 million
Flier: $500K
6 scrubs: $100K each

Of course, if past history is any indication, we'll end up going with Strategy #3, which is "Well, shit, that didn't work out like we planned, so let's just wing it!"

2020 Farm Draft Prep

We have five farm spots to fill, and a list of 45 players with which to fill them. Here are our top 20 picks in very rough order of preference:

1. Luis Rodriguez, CF, LAD
2. Tarik Skubal, P, Det
3. Cristian Hernandez, SS, DR
4. Josiah Gray, P, LAD
5. Jared Kelly, P, Texas HS
6. Sam Huff, C/1B, Tex
7. Nick Gonzales, 2B, NM State
8. Tyler Freeman, SS, Cle
9. Shogo Akiyama, OF, Japan
10. Francisco Alvarez, C, NYM
11. Carlos Colmenarez, SS, Venez
12. Liover Peguero, SS, Ariz
13. Austin Hendrick, OF, PA HS
14. Brady House, SS, Winder, GA HS
15. Spencer Jones, 1B, Vanderbilt
16. Jhoan Duran, P, Minn
17. Joe Ryan, P, TB
18. Carmen Mlodzinski, P, South Carolina
19. Shun Yamaguchi, P, Japan
20. Jeter Downs, SS, LAD

Of course, this list is likely to change multiple times by the time we make our first pick. Hell, given our past history, our #1 pick may not even appear above!