2020 Trades Announcement

We have some house cleaning to do before the 2020 auction and free agent draft begins. With that in mind, we made a pair of trades: one to remove a log jam, the other to fill a couple of holes. First, the logjam.

Trade #1: Justin Turner to the Cleveland Rocks for Nick Senzel.

Listen, JT was the man in the OLCS, and we thank him for it. We also acknowledge that he was one of the best hitters in baseball in MLB '19, and would be a great asset to us in 2020. However, Rafael Devers is now our Third Baseman of the Future. There is simply no room for Turner.

Granted, there is no room for Jose Ramirez, either. We were hoping he would get at least an inning or two at second base this season, but the Cleveland Indians front office apparently doesn't care about the needs of the Salem Cowtippers. So, for now, Ramirez splits time at third and serves as a kick-ass pinch hitter/pinch runner off the bench.

Senzel was ranked as the eighth-best prospect in baseball in this year's BDBL Farm Report. He is a "five-tool" player who we believe will eventually become an all-star. For now, we'll use him as a platoon outfielder in center field against lefties (.316/.371/.526). If he can avoid injuries (which seems to be an issue with him), we hope he can be a full-time player next year. An outfield of Senzel, Laureano, and Benintendi sounds pretty good.

Trade #2: Brandon Nimmo and Danny Jansen to Myrtle Beach for Christian Walker and Sam Dyson.

This trade could bite us in the ass. It wouldn't be the first time. Any time we trade future value for present needs, it bites us in the ass. We are high on both Nimmo and Jansen to have bounce-back seasons in MLB '20. But the opportunity to acquire a cheap first baseman and another cheap bullpen arm was too tempting to let pass.

Walker came out of nowhere this past MLB season and hit .259/.348/.476 in full-time play at the ripe old age of 29. You never know. Sometimes those late-bloomers surprise you and maintain that pace. Other times...not so much. We'll take our chances and hope we get more than one productive season out of him. At only $100,000 in salary, it's worth the gamble.

Dyson (62+ IP, 53 H, 6 HR, 13 BB, 55 K) completes our collection of Minnesota Twins relievers. He gives us enough decent innings that we could head into the 2020 season right now with a full bullpen. Or, even better, we could pick up a really quality arm for the top of the bullpen and allow Dyson to become a mid-game inning-eater.

As it stands, we have a hole at second base against both lefties and righties. We have a hole behind the plate against righties. We could use another corner outfielder unless we go with Shohei Ohtani out of position all year. (We still haven't decided what to do with him, frankly.) And we could always use another starting arm.

Other than that, if the season began today, we'd have a pretty decent team in place. Right now, we're looking at a budget of $17.1 million with 9 open roster spots. This probably means we're out of the running for the big-budget arms and bats, but we should be able to spread it around where we need it.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Champions

I was six years old when Dad brought me out to the back yard to have our first catch. Each time he threw the ball to me, I'd make an attempt to catch it. Then I'd do a few somersaults in the grass. Dad didn't like that. After several attempts to have a serious catch, Dad got frustrated and walked back into the house, leaving me to do my gymnastics in the yard. Mom saw what was happening and took his place. She didn't mind waiting for me to do my flips between throws.

Eventually, I took the game more seriously. I began playing ball in the back yard with my friends almost every day during the spring, summer, and fall. We played with a wiffleball, but we also played with a tennis ball, which felt more like the real game, because we could use real gloves and wooden bats. By the time I was eight years old, I got to be a pretty decent ballplayer.

One of my earliest baseball-related memories was hitting a "home run" in tee ball. I hit a ball off the tee to the outfield gap and chugged around the bases while the other team scrambled to pick it up and toss it back in. Dad was the assistant coach of our team at the time. At the beginning of the season he told all of us players that he would buy a snow cone for anyone who hit a home run. He was coaching third base that day. As I rounded third, he waved his arm frantically in a circle, shouting "Snow cone! Snow cone!"

Thus began my lifelong love affair with the game of baseball. It was the common bond I shared with my father. He coached me through my teenage years. He attended every game I played -- even some of our away games in other towns -- throughout my high school years. He was my number one fan.

Dad passed away on October 16th of this year. No one saw it coming. He didn't see it coming. His doctors never saw it coming. I certainly never saw it coming. It just happened.

I am a stubborn skeptic. I have never believed in an afterlife. I don't believe in Heaven or Hell or angels or devils. I don't believe "everything happens for a reason." I don't believe in fate or miracles or divine intervention. But I'd be lying if I said the thought didn't cross my mind that what happened in this year's World Series was a result of my father somehow manipulating the random dice rolls in this stupid game we play, just to give me one last gift. I have no other explanation other than the supernatural. It's pleasant to think about that, anyway.

*** 

Roughly thirteen hours after it happened, I am still shaking my head in disbelief. Nothing about that series went as I had planned. All of the hours I spent "scouting" the Mustangs were irrelevant to the outcome. The only thing that mattered in the end were those random dice rolls.

Game One was nothing but a series of aggravations. Time and again, we got two quick outs against Charlotte, and then they started a rally. They did it in the very first inning, setting the stage for the entire series. They nearly did it again in the fifth inning, when an untimely error by Justin Turner loaded the bases with Alex Bregman at the plate. At that moment, I guaranteed to Tony Chamra that Bregman would come through. Thankfully, I was wrong.

Just as Charlotte mounted one two-out rally after another, we failed to come through with two outs again and again and again. We loaded the bases with one out in the fourth inning, and Francisco Cervelli unloaded them by grounding into an inning-ending double play. (One of three turned by Charlotte in Game One.) Then Blake Treinen came into the game in the eighth inning and retired six batters in a row. He only needed 16 pitches to do it, too. Treinen wasn't very good during the regular season, but he was excellent in the World Series. It was probably the only prediction I got right.

Game Two was just a slap across my face. I felt like I'd been gut-punched by the Random Dice Roll Gods right from the very beginning of that game. I never understood why Anibal Sanchez was so bad all season long. He shouldn't have been. In ten simulations I ran prior to the season, he was never this bad. For some reason, the game just decided he would suck. And suck he did in Game Two. He sucked so badly, so quickly, that I didn't have time to yank him out of the game quickly enough. By the time I did, the damage was done, and we weren't coming back from it.

I was seething with anger and frustration as we headed into the eighth inning of Game Three without a single hit. To be the first team to be no-hit in the history of the BDBL World Series would be the ultimate slap in the face. I got that the Baseball Gods don't like me. I got that my repeated failure in the postseason has become the running joke that never gets old. But this just seemed like unnecessary piling on.

When Brandon Nimmo drew a two-out walk in the eighth, we still had yet to get a single hit. I just kept slapping that "1" key over and over and watching my team commit suicide. There was nothing I could do about it. I was utterly helpless. Then Tony Chamra took Kyle Hendricks out of the game and brought in his lefty specialist, Xavier Cedeno, to face Jose Ramirez.

I braced myself for Ramirez to fail to come through yet again. He did it the entire series. Our regular-season MVP decided to take the World Series off, apparently. He surprised me by drawing a walk. Then Chamra surprised me by sticking with Cedeno when I brought in Christian Villanueva to pinch hit for Travis Shaw.

My mouse hovered over Shohei Ohtani's name on the bench. I just assumed Treinen would come into the game. Instead, that traffic light turned green. I hit the "1" key and stood to my feet in nervous anticipation. When that ball left the yard, I nearly popped my shoulder out of its socket by punching the air so hard.

Finally, we got the break we so desperately needed. With Strasburg going against Nick Pivetta, Game Four was a game we should have won. Thankfully, we did. Most of the time, it seems those "should have won" type of games result in a "shocking" defeat. But we won, and that evened the series at two apiece.

I don't know why Trevor Cahill sucked in Game Five, but he did. With our bullpen overtaxed, we really needed him to reach his maximum-allowed usage of 8.2 innings. Instead, he gave us less than two. Once again, just like Game Two, we could not get our bullpen warmed up quickly enough to avoid massive, nearly-irreversible, damage.

By the time we finally yanked him out of there, we were looking at a 5-0 deficit. But, we had plenty of time left on the clock, and our bullpen arms were capable of holding Charlotte to five runs for a while. I figured we could peck away at Julio Teheran and score one run here, another there, until we crept back into the game. Instead, we mounted a four-run rally in the fourth inning, capped by Justin Turner's massive three-run bomb. Just like that, the game was tied.

The next inning, Jordan Montgomery came into the game to face our two lefties at the top of the lineup. Montgomery didn't allow a single hit to left-handers in MLB last year. Needless to say, we pinch hit a couple of righties. We managed to load the bases with no outs. We got a run on a sac fly. Another run was cut down at the plate on a dribbler to a drawn-in infield with an Ex runner at third. Andrew Benintendi then gave us an insurance run, but it turned out we wouldn't need it.

I desperately wanted to end the series in Game Six. I waffled back and forth on whether to start Cahill or Sanchez. Both pitchers had been bombed by Charlotte earlier in the series, but I felt like Cahill was the better of the two pitchers. It didn't take long for him to force me to regret that decision. Yet again, I couldn't get him out of the game quickly enough. By the time I did, we were in the hole, 3-0.

Yet again, we failed to hit with two outs. Cervelli (once again) left the bases loaded in the fourth inning with a pop fly. Hunter Renfroe whiffed with the bases loaded in the fifth inning. We left another runner stranded at third in the eighth inning when both Kike Hernandez and Brandon Nimmo whiffed. And Treinen once again recorded a two-inning, six-out, save.

So, on to Game Seven we went. There were many times throughout this series that I was absolutely convinced that we would lose the series. Certainly when we had our asses handed to us in Game Two, and went into Charlotte down two games to none, that seemed like an impossible hill to climb. When Stephen Strasburg struck out Bregman and Soto, back-to-back, in the sixth inning, it seemed as though he was cruising. He was carrying us on his back straight to victory. Then that old fossil Adrian Beltre doubled deep to left, scoring both runners on base to tie the game. And I thought, once again: "Shit. We're finished."

The worst feeling in the world is heading into extra innings in Game Seven and realizing that you have no one left in your bullpen but Jon Gray and Anibal Sanchez. Check that. There is an even worse feeling than that: the same scenario as above, but with the top of the Charlotte lineup coming to bat.

I have seen Gray do some extraordinary things this year. And he is a tremendous strikeout pitcher. With both Christian Yelich and Bregman prone to striking out, I figured he would be a better match against them than Sanchez. So I rolled the dice. And lo and behold, Gray did strike out the first batter he faced, Jose Altuve.

He wasn't so lucky with Yelich, who doubled. With first base open, Bregman up, and the pitcher's spot coming up next, intentionally walking Bregman was a no-brainer. Chamra went with Albert Almora, which I thought was a good matchup for us. Almora apparently thought differently, because he hit a single. Chamra held the runner at third, and I thought that was a lucky break for us. By doing so, it preserved the possibility of an inning-ending double play.

Beltre stepped to the plate, and I rolled the dice once again by bringing the infield in, negating that double play possibility. As it turned out, it didn't matter what I did, because Beltre inexplicably homered off of Gray. A grand slam home run. Righty-vs.-righty, by a guy who hit only a dozen homers off of right-handers all of last MLB season, in a ballpark that suppresses right-handed home runs.

Folks, you can't make this shit up.

I realized in that moment that the Baseball Gods had concocted a way to really rub it in my face this time. It wasn't enough to lose. It's far more cruel to have me believe I could possibly win and then yank it away from me.

I congratulated Chamra on his series win and his second BDBL championship trophy. I hit the "1" key in absent-minded apathy, just getting it over with. The thought crossed my mind that maybe I should take a break from the BDBL, at least for a year. What was the point of playing this foolish game, anyway? Why spend so much time building a great team when it all boils down to random dice rolls in the end?

The only bright spot at that point was that Charlotte's bullpen was every bit as depleted as ours. Despite the fact that he was tired, Treinen pitched a near-perfect inning in the ninth and set down the heart of our lineup. Now the bottom half of that lineup was tasked with facing Nick Pivetta, with a daunting four-run deficit. Justin Turner, useless to the end, began the inning with a weak ground-out. It would be the final plate appearance as a Cowtipper for our $6.5 million winter investment.

A single, a walk, and another single loaded the bases. But I knew this was just the Baseball Gods further taunting me. It wasn't enough to make me believe I might win this game only once. They wouldn't fool me again. I refused to take their bait. I pounded the "1" key and watched as Evan Gattis, our last pinch hitter, drew a walk, plating a run. Nope. I still wouldn't take the bait.

"1".

Brandon Nimmo, he of the .900+ OPS against righties, popped out harmlessly to right for out number two. That brought Kike Hernandez to the plate. I like Kike, because he plays multiple positions and has some pop in his bat, but he didn't really do much for us all season.

"1".

Next thing I knew, I was on the floor. My chair was on its side. I was laughing uncontrollably. Was I laughing or crying? I couldn't tell. That didn't just happen. There is no way that just happened.

And yet it did. Thanks, Dad.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Scouting Charlotte

Throughout the OLCS, I was reminded what a waste of time it is to do any advanced scouting before any series. Heading into that series, I noted that Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia would be absolutely essential contributors to the series, given that Joplin's two best starting pitchers are left-handed. Villanueva and Valencia combined for exactly zero hits in the series, and we won anyway.

I obsessed over the decision to pitch Stephen Strasburg on short rest or let him pitch on full rest and add a "bullpen game" to the rotation. As it turned out, Strasburg went later in the game than expected, and maintained a low enough pitch count to enable us to start him in Game Four. (So did Anibal Sanchez, for that matter.)

I noted that Doyle loves to steal, especially with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. So I employed a ton of pickoff plays and pitch-outs throughout the series. We managed to pick off Freeman...and he scampered into second base anyway on an errant throw. We pitched out during one of Betts' steals...and he stole the base anyway.

I couldn't help but notice Carlos Santana's abysmal defense at third base, and planned to capitalize on it as much as possible. I must have attempted to bunt Trea Turner a dozen times throughout the series, and our "Vg" bunter failed to get a single bunt down in fair territory. I also attempted to steal third, hoping Santana would muff the throw and we'd get a cheap run. But no, he handled that one with ease.

On the other hand, my advanced scouting (which I didn't even report here in my diary) revealed that Doyle once stole home plate on the back end of a double-steal with a runner at first and Betts at third. When Joplin attempted this same play at some point in our series, I recognized it immediately and opted not to throw through. Maybe that saved a run -- or even the game.

The thing is, in a short series, one small decision like that can make all the difference in the world. And so we press on and scout the Charlotte Mustangs as though it will make a difference in the end.

Many years ago, when the BDBL was in its infancy, I sparked a debate by suggesting that at this point in the season, BDBL stats matter more when it comes to scouting than MLB stats. My reasoning was that BDBL stats reflect the usage patterns and ballpark factors applicable to the BDBL, making MLB stats less relevant. I still maintain that opinion today. However, looking at the Mustangs' stats this year, I can't help but take MLB performance into consideration as well, given the wide disparity between MLB and BDBL performance throughout the Charlotte roster.

For example, is Anthony Rizzo an offensive threat or not? You'd think so, given his .295/.396/.506 batting line against righties in MLB. But his BDBL numbers (.275/.359/.452) appear far more manageable. The Charlotte lineup as a whole hit much better against right-handers (.818 OPS) than lefties (.748) this season. But if you look at their MLB splits, the difference (.759 vs. .770) is negligible.

One thing is for certain: that threesome in the middle of the lineup (Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, and Juan Soto) is the stuff of nightmares. Seriously. How did this team win only 90 games with those three monsters batting in the lineup? That doesn't even count Jose Altuve, Corey Dickerson, or Mitch "Ryan" Haniger. The lineup is so deep, Adrian Beltre and Anthony Rizzo are practically afterthoughts!

There is nothing we can do about Yelich, Bregman, or Altuve. Those guys are just going to mash the ball no matter what we do. There is no such thing as a "counter attack." We just have to shut our eyes and hit the one key. Soto is different. We can use our left-handers to neutralize him. The rest, as they say, are in the hands of the Random Dice Roll Gods. If the OLCS proved anything, it's to never take the bottom of any lineup for granted.

Our pitchers have their work cut out for them, regardless of how we use them. Which means we're likely to see some early-game blow-outs. Which means our bullpen will be heavily-taxed. I'm tempted to carry a 13th pitcher just to account for that inevitability. All five of Charlotte's starting pitchers are right-handed, so Villanueva and Valencia won't see much playing time. In fact, Jose Alvarado and Xavier Cedeno are the only two left-handers on the entire staff.

Soto (.682 OPS) and Rizzo (.605) are completely neutered by left-handed pitching. It seems that it would benefit us to sit either of the V-brothers and carry an additional left-hander (either Mike Montgomery or Steven Matz) instead. Although Villanueva is the obvious choice offensively, Valencia gives us some defensive flexibility.

Charlotte's home park favors left-handed singles and doubles hitters, and right-handed power hitters. Other than Felix Pena and Jon Gray (who won't be used as starters under any condition), Clay Buchholz (.332) and Montgomery (.391) were the only two starting pitchers in our rotation that held right-handers to a sub-.400 slugging percentage. Anibal Sanchez (.423 slugging, 13 HR in 336 AB) was particularly disastrous. It makes sense, then, to start Sanchez is Games Two and Six -- both at home. Keep him away from Charlotte Downs. It also makes sense to start Buchholz in Charlotte. So our rotation works out like this:

Game 1: Strasburg (to 90 pitches)

Game 2: Sanchez

Game 3: Buchholz

Game 4: Strasburg (90 pitches)

Game 5: Cahill

Game 6: Sanchez

Game 7: Strasburg

In other words, it's identical to our OLCS game plan. Thank god we won that series in six games, or our rotation would be completely screwed.

Looking at the Charlotte rotation, it seems like they have Kyle Hendricks...and then pray for rain. Hendricks has a Vg durability rating, but manager Tony Chamra didn't seem to employ him in a way that would lead me to believe Hendricks will be used on short rest at any point in this series (unless he's pulled early for reasons unrelated to usage.)

Hendricks' Achilles Heel this year was allowing lots and lots of home runs -- 38, in total. In particular, lefties seemed to pound him. Given that these are likely to be high-scoring games, I think it behooves us to throw Shohei Ohtani into the outfield every chance we get and take the defensive trade-off.

Julio Teheran has the same issue -- only more so. He allowed an average of 1.6 homers per nine this season. Jose "J.O." Berrios had an even WORSE homer issue (1.7 per nine). And Zack Eflin (1.8) was the worst of them all! This could be a very high-scoring series!

As far as the Charlotte bullpen goes, Blake Treinen scares the crap out of me. He performed far worse in the BDBL than expected, and was also susceptible to the long-ball. He allowed nine homers in the BDBL compared to just two in MLB. I am going to just toss his BDBL numbers out the window and treat him as though his MLB numbers are his true level of performance. (Which, I know, totally contradicts what I wrote above.)

Someone named Edgar Santana is used as Charlotte's middle-innings setup guy. Chaz Roe is their righty-specialist. Alvarado was supposed to be their lefty specialist, but lefties pounded him to the tune of .329/.453/.386. So, again, do we go by the MLB or BDBL numbers? Cedeno is left-handed, but is equally effective against both sides of the plate. Corey Knebel is a mopup man, and Tony Barnette is their short-usage superstar with a severe usage limit.

Charlotte's pitching doesn't scare me at all...which means they are guaranteed to shut down our offense. I've seen it happen, time and time again, throughout this season and seemingly every season. For some reason, the Cowtippers perform well against good pitching and shitty against shitty pitching. This is pretty much the only guarantee for this coming series.

2019 Playoffs Diary: OLCS Aftermath

It wasn't pretty. It wasn't easy. In fact, I can honestly say it was the most stressful series I've ever managed in my 21 years in this league. But in the end, we did it. We're moving on to the World Series for our sixth attempt at capturing that fucking trophy.

The OLCS was pretty much a perfect example to illustrate why we call the playoffs the "Tournament of Randomness." We could have easily won the two games we lost had it not been for a few outrageously-unlikely random events. And we could have easily lost all four games we won had it not been for some equally-unlikely events.

A few cases in point:

• Game One: Mookie Betts stole second base on a pitch-out in the 10th inning. He then advanced to third on a wild pitch, and then scored what was ultimately the winning run. If Betts is thrown out by our Vg-armed catcher, we may have won that game. If that wild pitch hadn't been thrown, Betts may have been stranded in scoring position on the slow roller to short that ensued. And, of course, if I hadn't fucked up by not bringing our infield in, who knows what may have happened in the 11th inning and beyond?
• In the fourth inning of Game Two, Freddie Freeman singled with two outs and then was picked off of first base. The throw down to second hit him in the back. Luckily for us, Mookie Betts then struck out to end the inning. If Betts had come through, there is a very good chance we would have lost that game.
• In that same game, Travis Shaw stepped to the plate with one out in the fifth inning and the bases loaded. We trailed by one run. He hit into what looked to be an inning-ending double play, but barely managed to leg it out. The tying run scored from third on that play. If Shaw is a step slower, we leave the bases full and lose the game.
• Same game, top of the ninth. Joplin trailed by a run. Taylor Rogers recorded two quick outs to start the inning. Then Betts hit a single to keep Joplin alive. No person in his right mind would try to steal in that situation, but Jim Doyle has never been in his right mind. He risked making the final out of the game by running against our Vg-armed catcher...and, as always, it seems, his risk paid off. Not only did Betts steal the base, but Carlos Santana then knocked him home with a base hit.
• In the bottom of the fourth inning of Game Three, we led by a score of 3-2. With one out and runners at first and second, Tyler Saladino hit a ball down to our Vg-ranged third baseman, Justin Turner. The ball somehow took a bad bounce and skipped past him down the line. Then our left fielder botched the throw to third, allowing their runner to move all the way to third from first base on the play. Later that inning, Freeman hit yet another infield single that scored the third run of the inning.
• In the bottom of the sixth inning in Game Four, we clung to a 1-0 lead. Joplin then mounted a rally against Stephen Strasburg. Freeman walked. Betts reached on yet another infield single. Strasburg then bore down and struck out David Peralta and Yan Gomes back-to-back. But he then hit Chad Pinder to load the bases. That brought Ender Inciarte to the plate with the bases loaded. This was the most critical point of the game. We handed the ball to our best pitcher, Oliver Perez, and he got the job done, getting Inciarte to ground out to first. That situation could have easily turned ugly in a hurry.
• In the bottom of the eighth inning of that same game, we still held on to our 1-0 lead. Shohei Ohtani was asked to retire the middle of the Joplin lineup. Betts singled, and then advanced to second on a wild pitch. Ohtani then uncorked yet another wild pitch to move Betts and David Peralta into scoring position. Gomes' sac fly then tied the game. If Ohtani throws only one wild pitch instead of two (which seems reasonable), then we keep our 1-0 lead and head into Game Five one win away from clinching the series.
• Instead, Ohtani loaded the bases with his second walk of the inning. We then asked Pedro Strop to retire Tyler Saladino -- which should have been an easy task for him. But on an 0-2 pitch, Saladino somehow stroked a base hit up the middle, scoring what became the winning run of the game.
• Game Six, top of the second inning. With two outs, Charlie Morton singles off of Anibal Sanchez (which is ridiculous enough alone.) That then enables a rally to take place that includes a wild pitch, a walk, and two singles. The last of those two singles is a little squibber hit by Freeman that hugs the third base line. We let it roll. It stays fair. The go-ahead run scampers across the plate.

If any one of these tiny little random unlikely events hadn't occurred, the fate of the OLCS would have turned out quite differently. Despite all of these annoying little quirks, despite the fact that Tyler Saladino hit like Babe Ruth, despite Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia going 0-for-the-series against Joplin's left-handers, despite Carlos Santana discovering a golden glove, despite Joplin running all over our catcher, despite our sudden inability to steal bases, and despite Pedro Strop's sudden inability to pitch against right-handed batters, we somehow managed to win the series anyway.

And now we prepare for Charlotte.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Scouting Joplin

It is almost a pointless waste of time to scout the Joplin Miners because their manager, Jim Doyle, is so unhinged and unpredictable, you never have any idea what you might face in any given series. He might throw a "cover pitcher" every game. He may decide to play the infield in the entire series. He may hit-and-run with two outs and a runner on second. He may start his closer and close his starter. Literally anything is possible.

We went 11-5 against the Miners this season, which seems like a pretty decisive record of success. We outscored them 66-53 in those sixteen games, which averages to a margin of less than one run per game. Not so decisive after all.

The Miners hit slightly better (.761 OPS) against lefties than they did against righties (.732), but the difference is negligible. Mookie Betts (1121/1013) beats the crap out of everyone, regardless of which arm they throw with. Carlos Santana (1.015) and Freddie Freeman (.923) pound lefties, and David Peralta (1.064) pounds righties.

Joplin's ballpark famously rewards left-handed doubles (117) and triples (177) hitters, and right-handed singles (110) hitters, and punishes both lefty and righty power hitters (68/78 HR factors.)

Given all of that, who do we throw against them?

All of our pitchers should be well-rested, so that isn't a factor. If we decide to do another "bullpen game" in the LCS, it may be best to get that out of the way first, with a bullpen filled with fresh arms. Unfortunately with Sale locked in to start Game One, it wouldn't benefit us to start Ohtani in a bullpen game. Strasburg had a good deal of success against Joplin this year. Ideally, it would be nice to keep him below 95 pitches in Game One so that we have the option to start him in Game Four.

One thing we know for certain is that we will face Chris Sale in Game One. Given his Av durability rating, we will not see him again until Game Five. That's just fine with us. Both Sale and Joplin's second-best pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, are left-handed, which works in our favor. Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia will have their work cut out for them.

As far as roster decisions go, we don't have many decisions to make. Despite the fact that Jon Gray didn't throw a single pitch in the Division Series, the rationale behind carrying him on the roster stands. Felix Pena and Mike Montgomery would be no more effective against Joplin than they would have been against Akron. Those would be the only two possible replacements for Gray. Offensively, keeping Odubel Herrera or Danny Jansen on this roster makes little sense.

We have two options for our LCS rotation. 

Option One:

Game 1: Strasburg (<90 pitches)
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Strasburg (<90 pitches)
Game 5: Cahill
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Strasburg

Option Two:

Game 1: Strasburg (max)
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Bullpen
Game 5: Strasburg
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Cahill

I will be obsessing over this decision while the Black Sox and Mustangs play the last remaining Division Series.

A few random scouting notes:

• Doyle hates to bunt. The Miners successfully executed just NINE sac bunts all season -- by far the lowest total in the league. Sale and Ryu bunted twice. No one else bunted more than once. We can safely play our corners back in any bunting situation.
• Doyle loves to steal. We already knew this. What I didn't know was who he loves to steal. Peralta attempted only four steals in MLB, but went 17-for-22 in the BDBL. Freddie Freeman attempted 18 steals and succeeded 16 times. Jose Iglesias went 9-for-11. Good to know.
• Carlos Santana is abysmal at third base. He made 20 errors (a .935 fielding percentage) on the season and has Pr range. We need to make sure the ball comes to him as much as possible. Take an extra base. Steal third. Bunt. Whatever it takes.
• As expected, Yan Gomes controls the running game very well. Sale (7 SB in 8 attempts), however, does not.
• Joplin's primary closer, Craig Kimbrel, has a big problem issuing walks. We may want to save Ohtani for the ninth inning, just to face Kimbrel. Then again, if we can somehow maneuver Ohtani in to face John Brebbia (1.025 OPS vs. LH this year), that would be even better.
• It might be worth the gamble to start Ohtani against Charlie Morton. Otherwise, the defensive trade-off isn't worth it.
• Gio Gonzalez made the postseason roster for some reason. He was even worse against lefties (.284/.385/.418) than righties (.280/.359/.478) this year. Benintendi (.776 OPS vs. LH), Ohtani (.748), and Nimmo (.741) all held their own against southpaws this year. Maybe one of them would get a shot off the bench if Gonzalez comes into the game. Or maybe it doesn't matter.
• Tanaka was beat up by right-handed power hitters this year. It probably makes sense to go with an outfield of Andrew Benintendi, Ramon Laureano, and Kike Hernandez against him. Hell, the way Benintendi has been hitting, maybe Hunter Renfroe should get a shot instead. Couldn't hurt.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Game Five

Heading into this game, we weren't sure whether D.J. would give the ball to Jose Quintana or Marcus Stroman. As it turned out, the answer was: both. Quintana got the start, but only as a "cover pitcher" for (eventually) Stroman. Luckily, we were able to get Christian Villanueva one at-bat against Quintana, and he made the most of it, depositing a 2-2 pitch into the bleachers in left to give us an early 1-0 lead.

By the time Villanueva stepped to the plate again, D.J. quickly turned the game over to right-hander Corbin Burnes. Burnes retired Villanueva with ease, but then ran into trouble -- big-time -- in the following inning. By the time that inning ended, we had put five runs on the board and opened up a comfortable 6-0 lead.

Stroman finally entered the game in the fifth inning and tossed two shutout innings before he, too, ran into trouble in the seventh inning. We caught a break when Brandon Nimmo hit a routine fly ball to center field with two outs, and ended up on first base when the center fielder slipped on the wet grass. Jose Ramirez took full advantage of that break by hitting a two-run homer to make it an 8-1 game.

Meanwhile, our starter, Anibal Sanchez, pitched one of his best games of the season. Through six innings, he allowed just one run on five hits and no walks. I nearly pulled him from the game in the top of the sixth inning when he stepped to the plate with two outs and a runner on third, but I decided to give him one more inning. That turned out to be a good thing, given how our depleted bullpen would fare in this game.

Pedro Strop immediately ran into trouble in the seventh inning, allowing a single, a double, two wild pitches, and a passed ball to the first three batters he faced. He eventually settled down, and I handed the ball to the normally-steady Taylor Rogers. He, too, ran into trouble, by allowing back-to-back singles. He, too, settled down and got out of the inning.

I left Rogers in to start the ninth, hoping that he'd keep his pitch count low enough to face pain-in-the-ass Jesse Winker. He didn't make it long enough to do so, however. After serving up a single and double to the #7 and #8 batters in the Akron lineup, I quickly yanked him out of the game and asked Jonathan Holder to get us out of this jam.

Instead, the normally-reliable Holder threw gasoline on the fire by serving up a two-run double to pinch hitter Josh Bell. That cut our lead to 9-5. Two batters later, Starling Marte made it a 9-6 game with an RBI double. That brought Joey Wendle to the plate, with Ronald Acuna on deck. If Wendle had reached, Acuna would have represented the tying run of the game. I could instantly envision a scenario where the rookie Acuna played the hero at home in Akron, winning Game Five single-handedly, and rallying his team to two straight victories back in Salem to snatch victory from the hands of defeat.

Instead, Wendle struck out. Then Acuna struck out as well.

And so now we head to the OL Championship Series where we will face off against our division rivals, the Joplin Miners. This is pretty much my greatest nightmare. I could live with losing a postseason series to just about any other team in the league. Losing to Joplin would haunt me for the rest of my life.

2019 Playoffs Diary: Scouting the Final Three

Game Five will be a challenging game in many ways. We're playing in Akron, which has been anything but kind to us this year. We will be starting Anibal Sanchez, who has been incredibly ineffective most of this season. Thanks to the "bullpen game" in Game Four, our bullpen is completely depleted at this point.

Our two best relievers, Ryan Brasier and Oliver Perez, will be unavailable. The same is true with Shohei Ohtani and Richard Rodriguez. We will have to get by with a bullpen of Taylor Rogers, Jonathan Holder (on a very short pitch count), Pedro Strop, one inning of Trevor Cahill (our Game 7 starter if it comes to that), and -- gulp -- Jon Gray.

On the plus side, Akron has a choice between Jose Quintana and Marcus Stroman to start this game. Neither one is ideal. Quintana is a left-hander (which means Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia finally come into play in this series) and Stroman is...well, not very good (although he pitched fine against us.)

The Akron bullpen will also be missing their closer, Josh Hader, who tossed 18 pitches in Game Four and 36 in Game Three. This plays well into our late-inning game if Quintana gets the start.

I see no issues on either team in terms of usage. We both should have enough PA's to get through this series without having to sit anyone important. I am a little worried about Brasier. We've relied heavily on him so far (although he did allow that game-deciding homer to Acuna in Game Three) and he's gotten us out of a number of jams. He threw 31 pitches in the last game, and 48 over the last four days. He may be done for the series.

It's a little ridiculous that Perez is unavailable. He is rated "Pr" for durability, but you'd think he'd be able to pitch after throwing only 19 pitches last game, and only five pitches three days before then.

We need to put Akron away EARLY or it might be a very rough ride from here on out.

2019 Playoffs Diary: OLDS, Games 1-4

I tell myself I don't care. I have been so bruised and scarred from 20 years of postseason failures that it doesn't affect me anymore. I'm immune to it. It no longer matters to me whether I win or lose.

Then I sit down to play my first postseason game and realize I've been lying to myself. Again.

I see Lucy holding that football once more. This time I'm gonna kick the shit out of that ball. This time I won't end up flat on my back. This time I won't shout, "AAAAAARGH!" This time, the audience won't laugh at my gullibility. This time, it will be different.

Game One

Before I can even settle comfortably in my chair, I already regret my decision to start Anibal Sanchez. He walks the leadoff batter, Jesse Winker, on five pitches. That is not surprising. All that motherfucker does is walk. Then Starling Marte lashes a base hit up the middle. Two batters, two base runners. Already, we're fucked.

I call to the bullpen. I can't take any chances here. We can't let this game get out of hand this early. "Get Perez up!" I shout into the antiquated dugout phone. "Now!" Less than two minutes into the first game, and I'm already in full-on panic mode. This leaves no room for doubt: I do care.

Two quick outs -- including the dangerous Ronald Acuna -- and the panic subsides. Then Scooter Gennett doubles home both runners with a clutch two-out knock. Fucking Johnny Bo! He just HAD to trade Gennett to Akron!

Nimmo leads off the bottom of the first with a home run. Now D.J. is surely shouting "Fuck Tony DeCastro! He just HAD to trade Nimmo to Salem!" At least, it would comfort me to know D.J. was shouting from his dugout. Instead, I imagine he's reclining in his easy chair, barely paying attention to the game while he listens to some obscure band playing on his record player. (And yes, I imagine he still owns and uses a record player.)

Two innings later, J-Ram crushes a three-run blast off of Mike Clevinger. I punch the air so hard I pull a muscle. I definitely still care about this stupid game. Although I breathe a sigh of relief, the game is far from over. Sanchez can blow it at any minute.

Nimmo leads off the fifth inning with a single -- his third hit of the game. I usually don't try to steal with Nimmo, given his horrible SB/CS rate, but since the pitcher has a "Pr" hold rating, and since we own a two-run lead, I roll the dice. He's gunned down at second. Idiot! Of course, Ramon Laureano follows with a triple, which would have scored Nimmo. Because of course. A long fly ball by Ramirez brings Laureano home. At least we scored one run out of that debacle.

We're still clinging to that 5-2 lead in the eighth inning when that rat-bastard Acuna hits a solo shot off of Taylor Rogers. Rogers then coughs up a single to the left-handed Gennett. That's all for him. Get him the hell out of there. Jonathan Holder takes over and, after walking a batter, gets the inning-ending double play. Another punch to the air.

On to the top of the ninth. After two quick outs, Roberto Perez draws a walk off of Holder. That brings up the very dangerous Starling Marte. Holder is at 26 pitches now. He can't go much further. Marte hits a little worse against lefties. With the tying run at the plate, we go with Oliver Perez, our most dominant reliever.

Perez gets Marte to ground one to third. Game over, I think. Nope. Justin Turner boots it. So, not only did he go 0-for-4 at the plate, with a GDP, he also made what could be a game-deciding error when we're one out away from taking Game One!

Joey Wendle steps to the plate. Tying run now at first base. 2-2 count. Perez deals. Strike three! Salem wins!

Yep, I totally care.

Game Two

Stephen Strasburg has had his ups and downs as a Cowtipper. Instantly, the highlight of his entire Salem career takes place when he leads off the game by striking out that pain in the ass Winker. As if he needed to do anything more to please Salem fans after that, he then steps to the plate in the third inning with no outs and Trea Turner on first. After failing to bunt Turner over twice, Stras somehow draws a walk! From a count of 0-2 to four balls in a row! God, I love him.

Nimmo follows that heroism by popping out to right field. I decide we're going to test the arm of rookie Acuna, and the over-exuberant rookie takes that challenge by sailing his throw over the third baseman's head. Turner scampers home for the first run of the game.

Another clutch, two-out, hit ties the game for Akron in the top of the fourth. In the top of the fifth, with two outs and two on, Wendle hits a nubber down to third...which Turner boots. AGAIN. The fucking useless waste of roster space, who cost us $6.5 million last winter, has made his second error of the series, all while going 0-for-5 at the plate. Is it possible he has heard the rumors from the media that he's already been traded this winter?

That brings Acuna to the plate. With the bases loaded. Man, I can't even watch. I place my hands over my eyes and wait for the sound of the crowd to tell me what happened. Stras ties him up with a change-up in the dirt, and the kid strikes out!

Strasburg then comes through again! He leads off the bottom of the fifth with a double! Is it too early to retire his number in Salem? Unfortunately, he's stranded in scoring position as Nimmo, Ramirez, and Travis Shaw go down in order.

The score is still knotted at 1-1 when Strasburg is due to hit against Mychal Givens with two outs and two runners on base. Stras has thrown 103 pitches in his six innings of work. He wants to hit, but I tell him he's done for the day. I give him a swat on the backside, and he heads to the showers as Ramon Laureano grabs a bat.

Givens has one job to do on the Akron roster: get right-handed batters out. Laureano is right-handed. But it doesn't matter. He takes a 1-0 hanging curveball deep into the left field bleachers for a three-run jack. The crowd goes absolutely crazy, shaking Sam Adams Stadium to its foundation.

Not even ANOTHER error by Justin Turner to start the following inning can deflate the exuberance of the Salem crowd. Rich Rodriguez gets the job done in the seventh inning. Taylor Rogers takes over in the eighth and works around a pair of singles to keep the score at 5-1 in our favor.

With a bunch of lefties due to bat, and with Rogers' pitch count low, I decide to leave him in the game to start the ninth. He faces three batters and allows a walk and single. We quickly hand the ball to Perez, who records out number two. Lefty Wendle then steps to the plate. No problem, I think. But then he singles, plating a run. That brings Acuna to bat, suddenly representing the tying run of the game.

Perez is the best reliever on our staff, but Ryan Brasier is the best we have against right-handers. I roll the dice and go with Brasier. This time, the gamble pays off. Acuna whiffs to end the game.

Game Three

The series shifts to the unfriendly confines of Akron, where we lost five out of six games this year. As game time approaches, we're met with a surprising discovery: Salem-killer Mike Clevinger is somehow well-enough rested to start Game Three! We never anticipated that turn of events.

Nonetheless, the game gets off to a good start. Akron practically hands us a run when Clevinger throws a pickoff toss down the right field line, and Chris Taylor then air-mails a throw to home plate on a base hit by Shaw. Just like that, we're up 1-0.

...and just like that, we're tied at 1-1. Our best starting pitcher, who is limited to less than eight innings in usage the entire series, allows two doubles in the first inning. Both pitchers settle down at that point, and not a single run is scored for the next four innings. Then, in the bottom of the sixth, Starling Marte greets Buchholz with a home run. Then two more doubles and a sac fly. As it turns out, our best starting pitcher turned out to be our worst so far.

Trailing 3-1 in the eighth, Akron turns to Will Smith to face the top of our lineup. I called on Enrique Hernandez to pinch hit, and he delivers with a single. Another pinch hitter, Laureano, lines a double to the gap. That brings Ramirez to the plate with no outs and two runners in scoring position. A base hit ties this game. A home run puts us ahead.

Instead, Ramirez hits a nubber to second base. It gets the job done. A run scores, and we advance a runner to third. With Shaw due to bat, and the lefty Smith still on the hill, we call on Christian Villanueva to pinch hit. We know damn well that D.J. won't let Smith face Villanueva. Sure enough, Craig Stammen then came into the game, so we counter with Hunter Renfroe. Better for Renfroe to face Stammen than for Shaw to face Smith. Renfroe hits one to center field -- far enough to score the tying run.

We're in good shape at this point. We've turned this into a bullpen game, and Akron has already blown through their two best relievers, Josh Hader and Smith. We're golden! Brasier allows a base hit to lead off the bottom of the eighth, but no worries. He gets the next batter, Wendle. That brings Acuna to the plate.

The last time these two faced each other, Acuna whiffed to end the game with the bases loaded. Apparently, Acuna must have picked something up during that encounter. He takes Brasier deep into the night to give Akron a two-run lead.

We're not done yet. We still have one more inning. Akron hands the ball to Jeurys Familia to close it out. He walks the first two batters he faces. We just have to get them into scoring position. Who better to do that than Strasburg? He pinch hits for Jonathan Holder and proves worthy to the task at hand, moving both runners into scoring position with a clutch bunt.

That puts the tying run -- in the form of Vg-speed Trea Turner -- at second base with two chances to knock him in. Kike Hernandez whiffs for out number two. Laureano then grounds out to short. Game over.

Game Four

Heading into this series, this was the game we dreaded the most. Who should get the starting nod? The inconsistent Trevor Cahill? The scary Jon Gray? Or do we go with the bold option of pitching a "bullpen game" with Shohei Ohtani as our two-inning "opener?" Ultimately, we decided to go bold or go home.

This is the most crucial game of the series. If we lose, the series is tied, with one more game to be played in Akron. If we win, at worst, we leave Akron up by one game. It all rested on our bullpen, which has been our greatest asset all season. Thankfully, they were well-rested.

Ohtani starts on shaky ground by walking that annoying motherfucker Winker, but he gets out of that jam. With two outs in the second inning, Chris Taylor homers for Akron. The way this game could go, that could be the only run needed to decide it.

We go with Rich Rodriguez to start the third inning. He ends up striking out three of the six batters he faces. Then it's Jonathan Holder's turn. He walks the bases full in the fourth inning, but gets out of the jam by getting Josh Bell to pop out to deep center. Holder then tosses another shutout inning in the fifth.

Meanwhile, we can't make heads nor tails out of Garrett Richards, for some inexplicable reason. He's good, but he's not THAT good. He throws five innings of shutout baseball before he's yanked from the game due mostly to usage issues. Now, once again, it becomes a bullpen game. We have a fighting chance in those games.

With two outs in the sixth, Justin Turner, the goat (not GOAT) of Games One and Two, finally earns his salary by knocking in a run with a clutch base hit. That ties the score at 1-1. The following inning, Francisco Cervelli gets hit by a pitch to lead off the inning. He moves to second on a bunt, and then scores on a base hit by Laureano.

Clinging to that one-run lead in the bottom of the eighth, we turn once against to Ryan Brasier to face Acuna with the game on the line. Brasier wins again, getting him to fly out to right for out number two. That brings the always-dangerous Scooter Gennett to the plate with a runner on first.

Now...I know you're not supposed to put the go-ahead run on base. I know this decision backfired against me in 2002. I'm well aware of the odds. But I do it anyway. D.J. then wisely pinch-hits lefty Kolten Wong for the right-handed Wilson Ramos. Incredibly, Brasier gets the whiff to end the threat.

On to the bottom of the ninth. We're still clinging to that slim 2-1 lead. Every pitch is excruciating. The pressure and stress of it all has me climbing the walls of the dugout. Brasier, however, is cool as a cucumber. He retires the first two batters he faces, no problem. That brings lefty David Dahl to the plate.

Now...I know you're not supposed to put the tying run on base intentionally -- especially with two outs and no one on base! BUT...this time I had a really good reason for doing so. Josh Hader was due to bat next, and Akron had no other options left on their bench.

Dahl was walked. And Hader struck out.