Playoffs Diary #4: Best-of-Three

This could very well be my final playoffs diary entry for this year. We lost two winnable games last night, setting us up for a best-of-three the rest of the way, with two of those three scheduled to take place in Akron. We have usage issues. We have bullpen issues. In other words, it will be an uphill battle over the next two or three games.

Our bullpen, which has been our greatest asset this season, has completely failed us in this series. We blew a six-run lead in the sixth inning of Game Two, and then ruined a comeback win in Game Four. Our offense has been almost entirely missing in action. Trea Turner, the OLDS MVP who saved our season for us, has gone a miserable 2-for-15 with 9 strikeouts and no walks.

The hero of this series has been Ramon Laureano, of all people. He has stepped to the plate five times, and has hit three solo homers. Rafael Devers (3-for-13, but with a big three-run homer in Game Two) has been mostly a non-factor. Lorenzo Cain (3-for-14) has been mostly absent. Our leadoff hitter, Brandon Crawford, has gone just 2-for-13 with two walks. Laureano has scored three times as many runs as Crawford in less than one-third as many at-bats.

Where do we go from here?

I have a big decision to make in Game Five. Do I go with Lance Lynn (87 pitches in his last outing) on short rest? Do I roll the dice with Luis H. Garcia? I honestly don't know what to do. If I go with Lynn, he would likely be effective for only five or six innings. The problem is that Bednar threw 19 pitches in Game Four, and Kelly threw 15. They're both available, but probably not for more than 10-12 pitches each. If I go with Garcia, I'm really putting a lot of faith in his MLB numbers as opposed to his BDBL performance.

The thought of allowing Garcia to pitch to Jesse Winker terrifies me. However, if we go with him in Game Five, then we could start Lynn on full rest in Game Six. If we go with Lynn, then we'd have to use yet another starter -- Jon Gray -- on short rest in Game Six. He only threw 72 pitches in his Game Three start, but do we really want to risk that?

As much as I hate to do it, I think the smart move here is to go with Garcia, and keep him on a short leash. In the worst-case scenario, we could use Lynn in long relief, and then start Gray on short rest in Game Six. That is our nightmare scenario.

Another unfortunate issue we will need to deal with is our remaining usage. Here's what remains:

Austin Nola: 2 games
Zack Collins: 1 game
Brandon Belt: maybe -- maybe -- 3 games
Lorenzo Cain: maybe 2 games

We could move Belt down in the lineup to save some AB's, but he's one of the only players hitting for us right now. He has 14 PA's remaining. At 5 PA's per game, we're right up against that cap in Game Seven. Let's worry about that then.

We'll need to start Nola against a righty, which isn't the end of the world. We can replace Cain with Benintendi in Game Five or Six, and save Cain for Ohtani's start in Game Seven (if it happens.)

This isn't good, folks. We are in a position where we have to trust Luis H. Garcia to keep us in the game tonight, and hopefully pitch at least six innings, so we can give our bullpen a much-needed rest. Yikes.