Tuesday, June 27, 2023

About That Trading Deadline

The first thing you learn when you participate in your first BDBL auction is that there is always someone -- and it only requires one person -- who is stupid enough to make an asinine decision that will ruin his franchise for years to come in order to satisfy an immediate need. Because of that, you will likely not get the player you desperately need at what anyone would consider to be a reasonable price.

The same holds true when it comes to trading. If you have your sights set on a player that fits perfectly for your team, you'd better be willing to do something extremely stupid and trade away your franchise's future or someone else will inevitably beat you to the punch.

To say that Brian "Skizm" Potrafka is a volatile character would be the understatement of the century. You never know what you will get from Skiz from one moment to the next. The only predictable part about him is that he is so unpredictable. Against all odds, he was winning his division in a tight race with the defending-champion Akron Ryche. He did not receive a single vote in preseason polling to win that division, and yet there he was enjoying a comfortable lead halfway through the season.

Last chapter, the Kansas Law Dogs placed Albert Pujols on the trading block. Pujols is exactly -- exactly -- the type of player we need in order to have any shot of winning our division and/or advancing in the playoffs. Pujols, however, is a three-chapter rental. He has no value whatsoever beyond this season. As such, I was not willing to sacrifice a significant piece of my team's future to get him. I did, however, offer several players with good value and invited Kansas GM Chris Luhning to select from ANY player on my roster, which I would then consider.

Instead of responding to my trade offer, Luhning went ahead and traded Pujols to Skizm. In fairness, I would not have offered as much as Skizm did. (See above: there is always someone willing to do something more stupid than you.) In essence, Skizm agreed to take on Zack Greinke's $6.5 million salary next season, which is something we can't afford. Still, it would have been courteous of Luhning to at least respond to my offer instead of ignoring it completely. Of course, when I called him out on that, he responded with his usual snark.

After stealing Pujols from under my nose, it took precisely fourteen days for Skizm to suddenly change his mind about the 2023 season. Despite still owning sole possession of first place in his division, he threw one of his patented temper tantrums and blew up his team. Set aside for a moment the damage that does to the league. This rant is about trading.

I made the same offer to Skizm as I did to Luhning -- opening the door to anyone on my roster. And he responded in the same snarky way as Luhning. Obviously, these people seem to believe that two chapters of Pujols is so valuable it's worth blowing up my team's future.

To be blunt: fuck that. The days of sacrificing our future for a 1,000-in-one shot at winning the trophy are over. I refuse to be pushed into making a stupid decision just because others are so willing to make stupid decisions. If I could get a sweetheart deal like the one Tony Chamra received from Skizm, that would be a no-brainer. But I'm clearly held to a different standard, so I will act accordingly.

The Florida Mulligans are good enough, as currently constituted, to win a spot in the playoffs. With the Undertakers and Blue Wave dominating at such a historic level, the odds that we would advance far into the postseason -- with or without Pujols -- are astronomical. So I plan to stand pat through the end of this season and expect an early exit in November. I'd rather lose the OLDS than lose a franchise player.

Saturday, June 3, 2023

Chapter Three Review

We have played many dumb seasons over these 25 years, but none may be dumber than this one. Even the dumb-as-shit 2021 season, in which we used a projection disk and Jim Dumbledoyle's team ended up winning the championship, may not have been dumber than this one. I simply can't fathom how the same team, comprised of the same players, with the same statistics, can possibly perform so wildly different from one chapter to another -- or even one series to another. It makes zero sense. In Major League Baseball, when we see a team lose ten games in a row, and then win ten in a row (or vice versa) there is a reason for it. Usually, a star player is injured or returns from injury. What's this team's excuse?

Just to review, we began this season with a record of 9-11 (.450). We then went on a 28-8 (.778) tear over our next 36 games. Then we began Chapter Three with a 5-11 (.333) record before going 7-1 (.875) in our final two series. Will the real Florida Mulligans please stand up??

You may think that our wild swings in performance are due to the strength or weakness of our schedule. But no. In Chapter Three, we were swept by the sub-.500 last-place Chicago Black Sox. We also lost three of four to the Philadelphia Fightin's, who are struggling to maintain a .400 record this season. And yet we somehow won three out of four against the (then) first-place Darien Blue Wave.

Miraculously, we currently sit in a first-place tie with the Blue Wave atop the McGowan Division. This is true despite the fact that we've played sub-.500 baseball for nearly half our season! This is true despite the fact that Darien has outscored their opponents by more than double our runs differential! This is true despite the fact that Rafael Devers, who is supposed to be one of our best hitters, is hitting just .231 and is slugging just .360. And this is true despite the fact that Framber Valdez, who is supposed to be one of the best pitchers in the league, is just 7-7 with a 4.05 ERA!

A few random player notes:

  • Ranger Suarez's performance this year defies explanation. In MLB, he allowed fewer hits than innings -- an average of 8.6 per game. In the BDBL, he has allowed a whopping 99 hits in just 80+ innings -- an average of 11.1 per game! He has started 14 games this year, and has allowed more hits than innings in 10 of those games! He has allowed 9 or more hits in a game 5 times so far.
  • Shohei Ohtani leads the entire BDBL with 12 wins (12-1), is currently ranked #2 in ERA in the OL (2.20), and nearly leads the league in all three triple-slash categories (.168/.240/.300). If he doesn't win the vote for OL all-star starter, something is severely wrong.
  • Jon Gray (7-1, 2.59 ERA in 73 IP) has probably been the greatest (positive) surprise of this season. He probably deserves an all-star appearance as well.
  • Rafael Devers (27 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 14 homers this season. Ohtani (34 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 16. The Sand Trap has a 102 HR factor for left-handed batters. Boston's factor is just 96. Anaheim's is 134. Ohtani's suppressed power is somewhat forgiveable based on that difference, but he shouldn't hit HALF as many homers in the BDBL. What excuse does Devers have? A year ago, he hit 50 home runs in the same goddamn ballpark with the same goddamn factors.
  • After a very slow start, Adley Rutschman's bat has finally showed up. He hit .274/.386/.466 in Chapter Three, and finished second to only Trea Turner (.324/.387/.491) in runs created.
  • Turner made 16 errors in 160 MLB games last year. This year, he's already made 11 errors in only half the number of games.
  • Rafael Devers hit one home run in Chapter Three. ONE. Have I mentioned how disappointing his season has been?
  • Ohtani hit just .188/.273/.323 with three homers last chapter. He may have screwed himself out of a spot in the all-star starting lineup with that performance.
  • The bottom of our lineup is an absolute shit show. Wilmer Flores (.174), Aaron Hicks (.138), Jonathan Schoop (.188), Curt Casali (.077), and Lane Thomas (.143) all hit below .200 this chapter.
  • Ranger Suarez was just about automatic in Chapter Three. Automatically awful. He made four starts, went 0-2, posted an 8.18 ERA, and allowed 5 homers in just 22 innings.
  • The two newcomers we got from the Peaks last chapter were both lemons. I covered Flores' performance already. The other guy we got, Chase De Jong, posted a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. Meanwhile, the kid we gave up for him, Aidan Miller, is currently ranked #20 in the draft by BA.
Where do we go from here? Your guess is as good as mine. At least we're back in the hunt. I'd love to pick up at least one more bat and another bullpen arm before trading season ends. We're playing .600 ball without a first baseman or second baseman who can actually hit a baseball. Imagine what we could do with one of those!