Sunday, July 24, 2022

Chapter Four in Review

We finished with a respectable-enough 15-9 record in Chapter Four, but there were several things about this past chapter that have left a sour taste in my mouth. I'll get to that in a minute. First, let's talk about all the good things that happened.

We outscored our opponents by 72 runs last chapter, which is exceptional, but also entirely due to the fact that we averaged -- get this -- nearly EIGHT RUNS per game last chapter! We scored 191 runs in 24 games, which averages to 7.96. We scored double-digit runs in nine of our twenty-four games, and won by scores like 11-3, 11-2, 13-7, 13-2, 11-3, 16-5, and 14-4.

Every hitter on our roster contributed something useful last chapter. Our worst hitter last chapter, Ramon Laureano, posted a useful .368 OBP, and came through with several clutch hits. Shohei Ohtani smashed 13 home runs. Mark Canha hit .306/.410/.582. Rafael Devers posted an .866 OPS. Andrew Benintendi posted a .420 on-base percentage. On and on it goes.

But the one player whose Chapter Four performance simply blows me away is Trea Turner. After doing virtually nothing in the first half, and causing me to wonder if I should trade for a second baseman who can actually play baseball, Turner turned his season around in a huge way this past chapter, hitting .393/.416/.636, with 11 doubles, 5 homers, a team-leading 28 RBI's, and a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts.

If we're going to win another championship trophy, we are going to need Trea Turner to be Trea F'ing Turner. Period.

As you may imagine, if we scored SO many runs in Chapter Four, but outscored our opponents by "only" 72, something very disturbing must have happened to our pitching staff. You would be correct. The truly disturbing part about Chapter Four, for me, was not the performance of our starting pitchers (who I've grown to assume will fail), but with our formerly vaunted and world-famous bullpen. That bullpen was supposed to carry us to the trophy. Instead, I'm rapidly losing confidence in each and every member of that bullpen.

Ryan Tepera continues to allow home runs at an inexplicable rate. He allowed two more in Chapter Four, giving him nine for the year. Folks, Ryan Tepera only allowed four homers in over ten more innings in MLB -- in a home ballpark much tougher for pitchers. Nothing about it makes sense.

Two games, in particular, stand out in Chapter Four as causing my faith in our bullpen to shake beyond repair. Both took place at the very end of the chapter. In a game against the lowly South Loop Furies, we were winning by a score of 3-1 heading into the seventh inning. After two quick outs, I handed the ball to Tepera to get the third -- against the bottom of the South Loop lineup, no less. He proceeded to allow two RBI singles and an RBI double to the next three batters in a row.

In our final game of the chapter, we led by a seemingly comfortable margin of 7-3 heading into the bottom of the seventh against the Blacksburg Beamers. I handed the ball to Ranger Suarez and Joe Kelly -- our best two relievers all season, and our most consistent. Suarez allowed THREE walks and a single before I could yank him out of there. Then Kelly proceeded to do this:

Run-scoring error.
Two-run single.
RBI single
RBI fielder's choice.
Yet another error.
Sac fly.

SEVEN runs scored in that inning, and we lost the game.

Folks, bullshit like this cannot happen on a championship ballclub. I don't care how many runs we score. If our bullpen pitches like this, we will not win that trophy.

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

2023 Halfway Checkpoint

We are roughly 80 games into the 2022 MLB season, which means we've roughly reached the halfway point. Tony Chamra recently posted his 2023 team's halftime report, so I figured I'd be a copycat.

Catchers:

C: Adley Rutschman: 142 PA, .215/.282/.392, 476/734 splits
C: Zack Collins: 74 PA, .209/.284/.448, 400/788
C: P.J. Higgins: 72 PA, .302/.380/.524, 725/988
C: Austin Nola: 213 PA, .237/.305/.306, 602/618
C: Garrett Stubbs: 57 PA, .280/.357/.560, 1462/761

The good news is that the Rutschman Era has finally arrived! The bad news is that he's off to a very rough start. We picked up a couple of short-usage superstars off the free agent scrap heap last chapter, but they don't get much playing time. Neither does Collins, surprisingly enough. That leaves Nola, who has defied all of the preseason forecasts calling him a "sleeper candidate" at the catching position. He's been asleep, all right. Barely lucid, in fact.

Infield:

1B: Brandon Belt: 170 PA, .211/.335/.352, 626/703
3B: Rafael Devers: 347 PA, .327/.383/.579, 895/986
3B: Jason Vosler: 64 PA, .268/.344/.518, 900/857
SS: Trea Turner: 349 PA, .311/.359/.491, 826/859
SS: Brandon Crawford: 243 PA, .224/.313/.350, 703/650

Devers may have a career year if he can keep this pace. Turner is great, as always. Of course, the question with both of them is: will they actually perform in the BDBL as they have in MLB? For the past two years, that answer has been a resounding NO. Belt and Crawford are looking like two very expensive and rapidly-aging bench players at this point. Stupid boring Giants.

Outfield:

OF: Andrew Benintendi: 326 PA, .314/.380/.400, 655/837
OF: Mark Canha: 259 PA, .267/.359/.373, 658/775
OF: Ramon Laureano: 206 PA, .246/.330/.393, 916/646
OF: Lane Thomas: 250 PA, .225/.284/.388, 676/669

Benny seems to finally look like the "breakout" player people have predicted he would be for about 15 years now. Just in time for free agency. What a coincidence! Canha's 26-homer season a few years ago has been confirmed as a definite anomaly. Laureano will evidently never have that one big superstar season I thought he would have when I signed him three years ago. And Thomas -- yet another one everyone projected as a "fantasy sleeper" in 2022, has done absolutely nothing to justify that title.

DH: (Side note: BOOOO!)

DH: Shohei Ohtani: 334 PA, .262/.344/.503, 689/933

If we are being forced by Rob Manfred to have a stupid boring-ass DH, at least we're stuck with Ohtani.

Starting rotation:

SP: Shohei Ohtani: 74 IP, 58 H, 8 HR, 17 BB, 101 K, 2.68 ERA, 614/578 splits
SP: Luis H. Garcia: 76-60-13-21-80, 3.54, 711/619
SP: Framber Valdez: 101-76-6-38-93, 2.67, 532/591
SP: Jon Gray: 77-64-8-26-83, 3.96, 653/641
SP: Ranger Suarez: 79-82-9-33-64, 4.33, 623/797
SP: Lance Lynn: 22-23-3-5-22, 4.50, 853/599

Welp, whatever magic fairy dust Ranger Suarez ingested in 2021 has worn off. He looks like a very expensive #5 starter at this point. It seems that all of our expensive auction buys last winter were one-use-only disposables. Lynn is another expensive turd, but he hasn't even earned his keep this season; never mind next. Valdez and Ohtani will be a very nice left/right combo if they can keep it up in the second half.

Bullpen:

RP: David Bednar: 37-25-3-12-50, 2.43, 558/582
RP: Dominic Leone: 29-31-4-9-32, 2.45, 1236/517
RP: Trevor Megill: 13-9-1-5-15, 2.08, 623/468
RP: Kyle Nelson: 25-20-0-7-20, 1.78, 556/621
RP: Gregory Soto: 29-19-1-14-30, 2.48, 699/554
RP: Gabe Speier: 19-16-2-5-14, 2.33, 676/597
RP: Ryan Tepera: 32-23-4-11-26, 4.18, 714/525

This is fine, as far as it goes. The sample sizes are all so small, anything can happen from this point forward, so it isn't worth celebrating or fretting. I would love to own one of the top, say, 50 best relief pitchers in this incredible 2022 MLB season dominated by stellar relief pitchers, but alas, they were all snatched up by other teams long ago.

Overall:

Offensively, it could be better, and it could be worse. If -- big IF -- Turner and Devers hit the way they're supposed to hit, then we could have a decent offense with those two, plus Ohtani, in the heart of the lineup. Benintendi gives us a quality fourth bat, which means we have a decent half-lineup if this trend continues.

On the pitching side, I'm excited about Ohtani and Valdez so far, but little else. Our bullpen arms haven't developed as I had hoped. Lynn's injury, plus Suarez's mediocrity, put a huge dent in our wallet that will be tough to buff out.

As it stands, we're looking at paying $31.8 million -- roughly half our total team salary -- on players that will do little and/or nothing next year. That is a very tough mountain to climb. Hopefully, this team really picks up the pace in the second half or we're looking at a surefire rebuilding year.