Friday, December 30, 2022

2023 Farm Draft Diary

I don't think I can recall a farm draft from any past season that I was less excited about than this one. There isn't a single player on my lengthy draft list who excites me. There isn't a single player who has a better than 50/50 chance of ever seeing the big leagues. What the fuck is the point of this? What a monumental waste of time. And now we get to fill in 20 farm spots instead of 15. I hate each and every person who voted for this farm expansion.

But enough about me and my seething hatred. Let's take a look at my top ten. As I type, we are four picks into this draft, and already, I've seen one player selected who was not on my radar at all. That player, Jackson Merrill, happens to be the #22 prospect in baseball according to FanGraphs. I know who he is. He was on my list a year ago. I assumed someone had taken him already. No matter how much time I waste-- er, spend-- researching for this stupid fucking farm draft, I always miss someone. This year is no exception.

Top Ten:

1. Bryan Ramos, 3B, ChW
2. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
3. Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian
4. Miguel Bleis, OF, Bos
5. Derek Curiel, OF, HS
6. Aiden Miller, 3B, HS
7. Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
8. Rhett Lowder, P, Wake Forest
9. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
10. Colt Keith, 3B, Det

My #1 choice is a guy who has been described as "projects as solid-average regular in MLB." That is how exciting this draft is. That list above is completely interchangeable. Swap #10 for #1 and I'd be fine with it. It literally doesn't matter.

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Winter Trades Wrap-Up

It looks like we're done trading for the winter, so it's probably safe to post this wrap-up of our winter trades. Maybe.

The very first item on our winter to-do list was to somehow jettison $4 million, as we were sitting $4 million above the cap heading into this winter trading season. My first inclination was to trade Framber Valdez along with one of our expensive free agents from last year. As much as I didn't want to trade Framber, it seemed like he was our best (only?) trade chit.

We initially asked for what I thought was an extremely reasonable package deal from the Los Altos Undertakers, but GM Paulson balked at that deal. Instead of getting the fifth-place pitcher in the AL Cy Young voting, Paulson ended up with the NL Cy Young winner. It's good to be Jeff Paulson.

For reasons I still can't explain, we received very little interest in Valdez. I guess people are turned off by guys with 200+ innings, a sub-3.00 ERA, and an MLB record 25 consecutive quality starts. So, I moved on to Plan B.

The one and only ranked prospect we have on our farm is Sal Frelick, so of course he had to go. This may be the year where we rank dead-last in the BDBL Farm Report with a grand total of zero points. Flagstaff GM Greg "Hoss" Newgard was kind enough to take Frelick off our hands, along with $6 million in mostly-useless Steven Matz salary. Oh, and we had to throw in the best pitcher from the 2022 draft, Connor Prielipp, just to make it fair.

With that monkey off our backs, I was able to focus on improving our 2023 team as cheaply as possible. Ravenswood GM Brian "Skiz" Potrafka began inquiring about Lance Lynn and/or Ranger Suarez. Both have good value this year, but both carry burdensome salaries. Dumping one of those salaries was a bonus I hadn't considered. Skiz was more interested in Lynn, so I offered him in exchange for somewhat-useful bullpen arm Buck Farmer. Done deal.

With several holes to fill on our active roster, and very little money to fill those holes (even after those two trades above), I was able to fill a gaping hole in the outfield with the $500,000 bat of Austin Slater. He cost us Ricardo Cabrera, who will now become the next Wander F'ing Franco, guaranteed. Unfortunately, Slater can only play about four chapters this year, so we'll have to find someone to fill those other two.

Paulson floated a bunch of names on the Selling forum, including another decent and cheap bullpen arm, Carl Edwards. I sent him some names I'd be willing to trade, and of course he chose the name I least wanted to trade out of the bunch, Enrique Bradfield.

Lastly, Chicago GM John Gill is in the midst of his annual winter purge, where everything must go, go, go! One of those things, A.J. Minter, interested me enough to offer our best remaining prospect, Jace Jung. Minter (70 IP, 418/608 splits) automatically becomes our closer.

As it stands, we look pretty good pitching-wise:

Starting rotation
1. Shohei Ohtani: 166-124-14-44-219, 636/518
2. Framber Valdez: 201-166-11-67-194, 505/621
3. Ranger Suarez: 155-149-15-58-129, 538/757
4. Jon Gray: 127-105-17-39-134, 731/602
5. Luis H. Garcia: 157-131-23-47-157
6. J.P. Sears: 70-67-8-23-51, 684/723

Bullpen
1. A.J. Minter: 70-49-5-15-94, 418/608
2. David Bednar: 52-42-4-16-69, 545/670
3. Buck Farmer: 47-36-2-25-54, 683/563
4. Ryan Tepera: 57-42-7-20-47, 625/614
5. Carl Edwards: 62-51-8-25-56, 628/673

We're only about 50 innings short in the rotation and 120 innings short overall. Hopefully we can pick up some under-appreciated arms for cheap in the draft. I feel good about both the rotation and bullpen. Ohtani and Valdez are studs. The bullpen isn't Undertakers good, but it's good enough. We should be okay pitching-wise.

The offense is a different story. We have some good bats, especially against right-handers, but far too many holes to fill and no money to fill them.

Lineup vs. LH
1. Andrew Benintendi, LF: .269/.347/.328
2. Trea Turner, SS: .298/.344/.542
3. Garrett Stubbs, C: .333/.429/.750
4. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .263/.329/.459
5. Austin Slater, RF: .277/.379/.445
6. Rafael Devers, 3B: .272/.315/.424
7. Mark Canha, CF: .241/.335/.398
8. TBD, 1B
9. TBD, 2B

It would have been hugely helpful if Brandon Belt had hit his weight last year. How someone can be so consistently good for so long and then just implode is a true mystery. Likewise, how Brandon Crawford could go from awesome to absolute garbage in the blink of an eye is one of baseball's greatest mysteries. That's what I get for signing Giants. Thanks to those two assholes, I have no one to play on the right side of the infield.

Lineup vs. RH
1. Andrew Benintendi, LF: .318/.384/.428
2. Rafael Devers, 3B: .304/.374/.557
3. Shohei Ohtani, DH: .278/.370/.551
4. Adley Rutschman, C: .280/.386/.503
5. Mark Canha, CF: .280/.385/.405
6. Austin Slater, RF: .246/.350/.361
7. Trea Turner, SS: .298/.342/.440
8. TBD, 1B
9. TBD, 2B

This is actually a pretty good lineup. We still have two glaring holes to fill -- three when Ohtani pitches (unless DMB releases that patch -- LOLOL!) But having five batters with a .370+ OBP in an era where the average OBP has plummeted to just .312 is pretty damn good.

After all is said and done, we have $6 million to spend and 15 players to spend it on -- including eight who will have to be carried on the active roster. Needless to say, I'll be watching the auction from the sidelines.