Sunday, February 26, 2017

Chapter One Review

Normally you would think a 20-win chapter would be a cause to celebrate, but in Salem, it's just another second-place finish. When Clayton Kershaw went down with a near-season-ending injury in June, when David Peralta finally performed like the fourth outfielder he is, when Mookie Betts forgot how to hit left-handers, when Troy Tulowitzki discovered that he isn't in Coors anymore, and when Michael Saunders performed a fantastic second half belly-flop, we figured that maybe -- maybe -- we wouldn't have to worry about the Blazers in 2017. But no. Heaven fucking forbid they ever stumble even a little bit.

Of the seven series we played in Chapter One, we split two, swept one, and took three out of four in the other four. We posted a respectable 3.17 ERA for the chapter, but our pitching staff allowed a completely baffling and irritating number of walks. We averaged 3.6 walks per nine, which would lead the league if it weren't for the Las Vegas Flamingos. Even more baffling and irritating was the performance of our offense. We hit .263/.330/.440, which is just about league average across the board. We were also thrown out on the basepaths twelve times in twenty-seven attempts -- a success rate of just 56%. In our final series of the chapter, Jose Altuve was picked off of first base -- twice -- by a pitcher with a Pr pickoff rating! There were two things at which this Cowtippers team was supposed to have excelled this season: getting on base and stealing bases. We didn't do either in Chapter One.

It seemed as though every game was a nail-biter. Out of our twenty wins, seven were by a margin of only one run, and eight were won by two runs. In fact, we only played four games the entire chapter that were decided by more than three runs.


THE GOOD

Our bullpen was outstanding in Chapter One. Notably, Rubby de la Rosa (1.47 ERA in 18+ IP), Mike Montgomery (2.45 in 18+), and Raisel Iglesias (2.25 in 24). The problem is that we overused those three arms to such an extent that we'll have to add another arm or two down the road. On the starting side, our two southpaws, Stephen Matz (3-1, 2.81 ERA in 25+ IP) and Daniel Norris (3-0, 1.02 in 17+), were phenomenal.

On the offensive side of the ball, Trea Turner (.396/.431/.604), Miguel Cabrera (.308/.392/.606), Jose Altuve (.333/.386/.496), Gary Sanchez (.273/.429/.697), and Kyle Seager (.292/.373/.573) all exceeded their lofty expectations. As with our bullpen, we'll have to make some adjustments to our usage going forward, as Turner and Sanchez are extremely limited. The same goes for Andrew Benintendi (.424/.472/.606), who has already racked up 35 of his allotted 129 plate appearances.

THE BAD

Odubel Herrera hit .303/.374/.467 against right-handers in MLB last year. So far this season, he's hitting just .195/.283/.232 against righties -- which is a problem because he's supposed to be our leadoff hitter against righties. If this is what we should expect from him for the remainder of the season it's going to be a very long season.

The same applies to Jose Ramirez. After hitting .312/.363/.462 in MLB last year, we were expecting a borderline MVP performance from him this year. Instead, he's hitting just .247/.311/.382 with no home runs.

We expected very big things from Jon Gray this year. He posted very impressive numbers in MLB last year, and by moving from the league's most hitter-friendly ballpark to one of the league's best pitcher's parks, we were hoping to see a huge improvement in those numbers. Instead, his BDBL ERA (4.45) is only slightly lower than his 4.61 MLB ERA. What irritates me most of all is that he has walked 19 batters in only 32+ innings. His BB/9 rate of 5.3 isn't in the same universe as his MLB rate of 3.2. He's also allowed home runs at a higher rate (1.7 vs. 1.0). Seriously, how do you go from Coors Field to Anaheim and allow MORE home runs??

Stephen Strasburg was supposed to be our staff ace. Instead, he managed to win only one game in Chapter One, and posted a mediocre 4.10 ERA. He's already allowed six home runs, which is more than a third of the total number of homers he allowed all last year in MLB. Of course, this is nothing new with him.

Junior Guerra is another pitcher sporting an absolutely ridiculous walk total at this point. He allowed 3.2 BB/9 in MLB, and has allowed 5.9 BB/9 so far this season. Nearly every pitcher on the Salem pitching staff is allowing walks at a far higher rate than their MLB numbers. Raisel Iglesias (3.0 vs. 3.8), de la Rosa (3.6 vs. 4.4), and David Phelps (3.9 vs. 5.9) are also walking batters at a ridiculous pace. And bear in mind that I don't pitch around all that often!

THE UGLY

Speaking of Phelps, we were counting on him to be a workhorse in the bullpen, and we used him a lot in Chapter One. In 18+ innings, he allowed 10 runs -- all earned. His 4.91 ERA isn't anywhere near his MLB ERA of 2.28.

As a group, Salem pitchers are batting .054/.070/.054 this season. They have three hits this year. THREE. And one walk. ONE. They have zero extra base hits, and have knocked in zero runs. They have performed only slightly worse than our catching tandem of Travis d'Arnaud (.093/.111/.116) and Carlos Ruiz (.143/.294/.214.) When Sanchez isn't in the lineup -- which is more often than not -- we really need one of our two backup catchers to step up and -- oh, I don't know -- hit at least their weight! Combined, those two catchers have six hits -- SIX! -- in 59 at-bats.

Prior to the final series of the chapter, Elvis Andrus had posted numbers that weren't much better than our two backup catchers. He went on a tear in that series and raised his season average to .250/.319/.350. Prior to that series, he was hitting just .178/.250/.178! With a backup catcher and Andrus at the bottom of the lineup, it's like having three pitchers bat in a row!

Given all of the bad and ugly we witnessed in Chapter One, it's a miracle this team won twenty games! Next chapter, we face the daunting task of playing the Undertakers, Blazers, and Infidels all in the same chapter. Should be fun.