Monday, October 23, 2017

2017 OLDS: The Gory Details

To say that we were the underdogs in our OL Division Series matchup against the Los Altos Undertakers would be a laughable understatement. The Undertakers won 18 more games during the regular season, scored 77 more runs, and allowed 122 fewer runs. Prior to Game One, if you had told me that we would out-score Los Altos in the Division Series by six runs, I would have had a good laugh at your expense, and yet that is exactly what we did. And we still lost the series.

We have a bad habit of setting the wrong kinds of records in the BDBL, including the longest losing streak in BDBL World Series history. In 2017, we set yet another unwanted postseason record. We are now the only team to have ever lost four one-run games in a postseason series. Here is how it all happened.


Game One


Los Altos clubbed 277 home runs during the regular season, in large part thanks to their home ballpark, which carries a home run factor of 137 for right-handed batters. With their lineup filled with right-handed power hitters, we determined that if we were to have any shot of beating this team in Los Altos, we had to somehow keep their righties in the ballpark. To that end, we decided to hand the ball to Jon Gray for Game One.

Of all of our starting pitchers, Jon yielded the lowest slugging percentage against right-handed batters than any other starter except Steven Matz. With Matz being left-handed, we felt that it would be better to keep the Undertakers' short-usage righties (Wilmer Flores and Sandy Leon) on the bench in that ballpark.

As the saying goes, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Gray didn't make it out of the third inning before his day was through. In two-plus innings, he allowed seven hits and five runs. Two of those hits and runs came on leadoff solo homers: one by right-hander Nolan Arenado (who seems to be immune from the Coors Effect), and one by a left-hander, Ryan Schimpf.

To our great surprise and delight, we had actually managed to take a 3-0 lead in the first inning. We began the game with FOUR consecutive doubles off of Los Altos ace Chris Sale. We then tacked on two more runs in the third. For a brief moment, we thought that if Gray could keep those bats in check, we might have a shot at stealing a victory in this series. Instead, by the time that disastrous third inning ended, we were looking at a 5-5 tied game.

Just when it seemed that our bullpen would hold that tie long enough for our offense to come through for us, we handed the ball to Rubby de la Rosa to face the top of the lineup in the sixth inning. Rubby had been rock-solid throughout the regular season. Right-handed batters slugged only .229 against Rubby this season -- the lowest rate of any pitcher on our staff. In 188 at-bats against righties, he surrendered only three home runs. Yet, the second batter he faced, Arenado, went deep for the second time in the game. Four batters later, another right-hander, Sean Rodriguez, also went yard. In two innings, de la Rosa managed to allow nearly as many home runs to right-handed batters as he allowed all season.

To their credit, our offense refused to go down without a fight. We rallied for two runs in the seventh inning thanks to a walk and three singles. Miguel Cabrera, our $13 million all-star, then stepped to the plate with two outs and the tying run on third and...popped out to left. Yet another disappointment provided by our incredibly disappointing first baseman.

Another scoring opportunity went to waste in the eighth when Gary Sanchez popped up to the catcher with no outs and a runner at first, and Jose Altuve followed with a ground-out against a pitcher (Ryan Buchter) he should have matched up well against.

Kenley Jansen then came into the game to protect a one-run lead in the ninth and did what he would do throughout the entire series: three-up, three-down.


Game Two


Maintaining our strategy of keeping Los Altos' right-handed bats off the bench as much as possible, we gave the ball to another right-hander, Junior Guerra, in Game Two. Although he was a huge disappointment throughout the season, Guerra was masterful. In six innings, he allowed only one run on three hits and no walks.

With the game tied at 1-1 in the seventh, Guerra was scheduled to lead off the inning. Although he was pitching very well, I could not start the inning with a guaranteed out, so I called on Kyle Seager to pinch hit. That decision proved to be a productive one, as Seager reached on a base hit, advanced to second on a passed ball, and scored on a double by Andrew Benintendi.

As always, our celebration was short-lived. And once again, our celebration ended thanks to yet another Los Altos home run. With two outs, Undertakers manager Jeff Paulson called on pinch hitter David Freese to face lefty Daniel Norris. With two left-handers coming up behind Freese, I opted to let Norris pitch to him. I figured the only bad outcome would be a home run, and of course that's exactly what happened.

With the game now tied at 2-2, Alex Dickerson came through with a clutch leadoff triple. The next two batters grounded out to a drawn-in infield. For a moment it looked as though that triple would be yet another wasted opportunity. Instead, Trea Turner came through big-time with a huge two-run blast off of Adam Ottavino.

We now needed to somehow protect a two-run lead against the mighty Los Altos offense. I gave the ball first to ol' reliable, David Phelps -- perhaps our best reliever throughout the regular season. He didn't disappoint, retiring the side in order in the eighth. I let him stay in the game in the ninth to face a pair of power-hitting righties, Arenado and Nelson Cruz. Arenado led off the inning with a single, and Cruz struck out. I then brought in lefty Sammy Solis to face Anthony Rizzo and Justin Turner, and he retired both with ease, securing our first win of the series.


Game Three


With the series heading to our home ballpark in Salem, we could now give the ball to, arguably, our best starting pitcher, Matz. Matz's overall numbers in 2017 were dragged down by a handful of really bad starts. When he was on, no one on our pitching staff was better. Unfortunately for us, Matz chose Game Three of the OL Division Series to be off.

Out of our entire starting rotation, Matz owned the lowest opponent's slugging percentage at just .363. Against right-handed batters, it was just .386. He allowed 15 home runs in 145 innings -- less than one per nine. Then he faced the Undertakers in the OLDS and this happened:

Cruz: two-run homer in the first inning
Rizzo: leadoff blast in the second inning
Cruz: another solo homer in the third inning
Choo: solo homer in the fourth
Choo: two-run homer in the sixth

Three of those home runs were hit by left-handed batters...in a ballpark that suppresses left-handed home runs by six percent.

We trailed by a score of 5-1 heading into the fifth inning. We then played longball ourselves. A two-run blast by Jose Ramirez and a pinch hit solo shot by Jayson Werth made it a one-run game. The following inning, Jose Altuve stepped up and added a three-run homer. Three batters later, even Miguel Cabrera got into the act with an RBI single. By the time the smoke cleared, we were looking at an 8-7 lead with only three innings left to play.

Once again, we handed the ball to Rubby de la Rosa. Once again, he put us in a hole. A walk, a double, and an RBI groundout handed the lead back to Los Altos. With runners at second and third, it was tempting to bring the infield in to try to cut off that tying run. But with no outs and the heart of the Los Altos lineup due to hit, it would have opened the door to a big inning. Instead, we let the tying run score so that we could record an out.

I then brought Solis in to face the lefty Cory Seager. He grounded out for out number two. For a moment, it felt like we could escape from this jam with the tied game intact. Then Arenado stepped up and -- yet again -- came through in the clutch. His RBI single gave Los Altos the lead.

We wasted yet another opportunity in the seventh inning. After Odubel Herrera began the inning with a hit-by-pitch, Elvis Andrus (a Vg bunter) tried to bunt him over into scoring position. Instead, the play went to second, and they cut down Herrera. Determined to get that runner over no matter what, I then called for Andrus to steal second. Thankfully, he was successful. We now had a runner in scoring position with one out.

Cameron Maybin followed with a ground-out, and Jose Altuve thought this was such a great idea, he grounded out as well. Opportunity missed. It would be the last opportunity we would get, as Los Altos then turned the ball over to their two most suffocating closers, Dellin Betances and Kenley Jansen. Yet another one-run loss was recorded in the books.


Game Four


I had originally planned to start Mike Montgomery in Game Four, but thanks to Gray's unexpectedly short outing in Game One, he was available instead. Thinking that perhaps if the series went to seven games, and knowing that Guerra would have to be limited to three innings because of our ridiculous usage rules, I figured maybe Gray could pitch at least a couple of innings if needed, on the outside chance there would be a Game Seven.

Gray's outing in Game Four was what I had expected from him in Game One: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 8 K. We then handed the game over to our bullpen, which was equally masterful: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K. The only two runs scored by Los Altos were -- you guessed it -- home runs. A pair of relatively harmless solo shots by -- you guessed it -- Nolan Arenado -- would be the only scoring of the day for the mighty Undertakers.

Unfortunately, those two runs would be enough to win this one.

What turned out to be the game-winning solo home run by Arenado was hit off of Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias' stats against right-handers this season: .180/.257/.251, with 3 HR in 183 AB.

Meanwhile, our entire offensive game came down to one painfully missed opportunity. With the bases loaded in the first inning, Miguel Cabrera stepped to the plate with two outs to face Sale. He whiffed.

Our only run came in the eighth inning when we strung together a single, a double, and a sac fly. But once again, we missed a golden opportunity to score the tying run of the game when Gary Sanchez popped out for out number two, and Herrera left the tying run stranded in scoring position with his inning-ending pop fly.

That set the stage for Jansen, who recorded yet another three-up, three-down inning.


Game Five


With our backs against the wall, a single win away from elimination, we turned to Mike Montgomery to allow us to fight another day. He did just that, holding Los Altos to just three runs (two earned) in six-plus innings.

Our offense, meanwhile, managed to chip away at Los Altos starter Aaron Sanchez with singles, walks, and sac flies. By the end of five innings, we had built a 5-2 lead. Los Altos tacked on another run in the sixth inning to make it a 5-3 game. In the eighth, we pecked and chipped and scratched and clawed for two more runs, making it a 7-3 game.

We handed the game over to our bullpen with two outs in the seventh. In the ninth, Daniel Norris surrendered a leadoff triple to a lefty, Cory Seager. We let him score on a ground ball to short, exchanging that run for a crucial out instead. David Phelps then managed to get the dangerous Nelson Cruz to tap one back to the mound. Instead of recording the easy out number two, however, Phelps decided to throw the ball down the right field line, allowing Cruz to advance to second.

Lefty Sammy Solis was called on to face a pair of lefties. After striking out Ryan Schimpf for that crucial second out, Stephen Vogt somehow cranked a double to score yet another run. Solis held lefties to a .232 average this season, and Vogt his just .227 against southpaws. Go figure.

With our lead slipping through our fingers, and the ever-dangerous Arenado stepping to the dish, I asked Nate Jones to do the impossible and record that third and final out. Instead, he hit Arenado with a pitch. Then, for good measure, he uncorked a wild pitch to put two runners -- including the tying run of the game -- in scoring position.

With Anthony Rizzo at the plate, and the tying run standing one bloop single away, I decided not to roll that particular pair of dice. I intentionally walked Rizzo to load the bases. With a heavy sigh of relief, Sean Rodriguez then grounded out to end the game.


Game Six


If Junior Guerra had thrown just 3.1 more innings in MLB 2016, his postseason usage in this series wouldn't have been an issue. Instead, he was limited to 9 2/3 innings thanks to our arbitrary rules. Of course, I was fully aware of that when I allowed him to throw six innings in Game Two, and thus fully-prepared to turn Game Six into a "bullpenning" experiment if it came to that.

We jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning thanks to another clutch home run by Jose Ramirez. Guerra was as good as we have seen all season, tossing three shutout innings to start the game. But with only two outs remaining in his usage, and with his spot in the batting lineup coming in the top of the fourth with two outs, I reluctantly decided to cut Guerra's usage even further and pinch hit Cameron Maybin. Naturally, he struck out.

Forced to turn the game over to our bullpen, I began with Daniel Norris -- who was also limited in usage himself. In keeping with the theme of this entire series, he coughed up a home run to the very first batter he faced, Sean Rodriguez. Thankfully, however, he settled down from there and retired ten of the next eleven batters he faced.

Meanwhile, our offense exploded in the top of the fifth inning. A walk, an error, three straight singles, and a three-run double by Alex Dickerson plated five runs, giving us a commanding 6-1 lead. After Norris struck out the side in order (giving him five strikeouts in a row) in the sixth, we turned the game over to Ryan O'Rourke, Sammy Solis, David Phelps, and Nate Jones, who got the job done. We walked away with an easy 7-1 win, putting us one win away from the OL Championship Series. All that stood in our way was Steven Matz.


Game Seven

We never thought it would come to this, but if you had told me prior to the start of the series that we'd be heading to Game Seven with a fully-rested Steven Matz as our starting pitcher, I would have felt pretty good about that situation. After his shellacking in Game Three, however, it hardly inspired confidence to see him take the hill -- especially on the road in Los Altos' righty-friendly home run haven.

It didn't take long for this game the fate of this game to reveal itself. The ever-dangerous Arenado stepped to the plate in the bottom of the first with two outs and runners on the corners. To my great relief, he hit a routine ground ball to first. Then, I watched with horror as the ball trickled through the legs of our $13 million first baseman, Cabrera, allowing a crucial -- and ultimately game-deciding -- run to score.

Incredibly, we managed to take the lead the following inning when Trea Turner -- using up one of his final at-bats of the series -- went yard off of Chris Sale to give us a 2-1 lead. But, in keeping with the theme of this series, lefty Anthony Rizzo then greeted lefty Matz in the bottom half of that inning with a game-tying home run. Heaven forbid we enjoy our lead for more than a moment.

Matz wasn't done serving up gopher-balls. After coughing up FIVE of them in Game Three, and another to Rizzo in Game Six, he allowed another (to Sandy Leon) in the third inning, and then yet ANOTHER (to Nelson Cruz) in the fifth. In total, Matz somehow managed to allow EIGHT home runs in twelve innings in the OLDS. That might be forgivable if he wree throwing batting practice, but he was actually TRYING to get batters out. In retrospect, Stephen "Whiplash" Strasburg couldn't have performed worse than Matz.

The Undertakers scored five runs in Game Seven. Three were scored by the longball. One was scored on Cabrera's clutch imitation of Bill Buckner. The other scored in the sixth inning when Matz crumbled under pressure by allowing a single and a walk to load the bases with two outs. Cory Seager then pinch hit for Sale. Cory Seager can't hit left-handers if his life depended on it. Cory Seager blooped a dying quail over the outstretched gloves of our infield to plate what became the deciding run of the OLCS.

Meanwhile, our offense busied itself by doing what they do best: wasting opportunities.

As if Cabrera hadn't proven his uselessness enough in this game, he grounded into an inning-ending, rally-killing double play to end the fourth inning. In the sixth, we managed to load the bases with no outs and the heart of our lineup coming to bat. Elvis Andrus grounded into a double play (scoring a run), and Trea Turner followed by using his final at-bat of the series to strike out.

We managed to push across a run in the eighth inning on a double and a (very) clutch RBI single by Dickerson -- off of Kenley Jansen, no less! But Jansen then recorded four easy outs in a row to end the game, the series, and our season.

Final Thoughts


If Miguel Cabrera were capable of fielding a ground ball hit straight toward him, taking a few steps to his left, and stepping on first base...

If Cabrera had come through with a base hit with two outs and a runner on third in Game One OR Game Four...

If Steven Matz had allowed "ONLY" seven home runs in his twelve innings instead of eight...

If only ONE of the SIXTEEN home runs the Undertakers hit had been held up by the wind, or died at the warning track, or were snatched over the fence with a leaping grab...

If Jon Gray's Game One performance were anything remotely like his Game Four effort...

If Trea Turner had just one more hit left in him...

If Cory Seager and Anthony Rizzo posted the same numbers against left-handed pitching that they posted during the regular season...

If any of the above had happened, I would be writing about our strategy for the upcoming OLCS against New Milford. They say baseball is a game of inches, and that anything can happen in the Tournament of Randomness. Nineteen years and fourteen playoff appearances into this league's history, we're still waiting for the year when the Salem Cowtippers will be the recipients of some of these lucky, random, breaks. Maybe next year.

Monday, October 9, 2017

2017: The Season in Review

We began this season with great expectations and a dream of bringing an end to the New Milford Blazers ridiculous streak of division titles. If you had told us at the beginning of the season that we would finish with 99 wins, I would have assumed that would be good enough to win that division title. Instead, we finished 21 games behind. Needless to say, we didn't envision the utter dominance of the Blazers' 120-win season.

We managed to keep it a tight race for at least the first half of the season. We even enjoyed a (very) brief time as leaders of the division. But then something happened to the Blazers in the second half. They kicked it into a higher gear and won 62 games in the second half -- seventeen more than we did. So much for the pennant race.

Among Ozzie League teams, only the Blazers and Infidels scored more runs than we did (846) this season. Our 3.89 team ERA ranked fourth in the OL.

We now look forward to taking on the 113+ game-winning Los Altos Undertakers in the OLDS. Our pitchers will have their work cut out for them, as Los Altos led the entire BDBL in runs scored (903) and home runs (272) this season. Every batter in their lineup is a weapon. They have four aces in the rotation and bullpen filled with an endless array of closers. Should be fun.

The Good:

Avisail Garcia ranks 23rd in offensive WAR in MLB 2017. We had him signed for a cool $2.5 million in 2018. Instead, we shipped him off to Kansas City in exchange for Martin Prado. Only days later, Prado injured himself for the season, leaving us with no option but to pay $2.3 million just to get rid of him at the end of the season. On the plus side, Prado has done nothing but hit the snot out of the ball (.449/.513/.643 in 98 AB) since becoming a Cowtipper. If he single-handedly wins the trophy for us this year, it will all be worth it. If not, what an incredible waste of resources.

Rookie sensations Andrew Benintendi (.337/.388/.467 in 92 AB) and Gary Sanchez (.288/.373/.679) helped to justify our trade of Kris Bryant a year ago. Another rookie, Trea Turner, hit .334/.358/.563 on the season, with 11 triples, 37 extra-base hits, and 63 RBI's in only 323 AB's. Those core three youngsters will be joined by Rafael Devers in 2018, giving us a solid foundation for our franchise's future.

Jose Ramirez (.315/.369/.457, with 66 doubles), Jose Altuve (.308/.354/.456), Elvis Andrus (.308/.354/.456), and Miguel Cabrera (.293/.376/.519) gave us consistent solid performances all year long. Jayson Werth (.297/.391/.658) added another power bat against southpaws. Alex Dickerson (.275/.347/.508) also provided some pop in limited (244 AB) time.

On the pitching side, Ruddy de la Rosa (2.19 ERA in 53+ IP) and David Phelps (2.43 in 85+) provided us with two solid middle-inning arms throughout the year. Matt Shoemaker (15-7, 3.56 ERA in 172 IP) was probably our staff ace -- and he won't be on our 25-man playoffs roster! Steven Matz (15-5, 3.60 in 145 IP) and Jon Gray (10-9, 3.75 in 182+) were solid in the middle of the rotation.

The Bad:

Needless to say, when we traded Aaron Judge for Junior Guerra last winter, we were hoping Guerra would not only provide us with an above-average starter this year, but for years to come. Instead, Guerra posted a mediocre 4.06 ERA and 8-7 record in 130+ innings and was so ineffective in MLB that he will be cut in the winter.

Odubel Herrera hit half as many doubles and home runs for us as he did for the Phillies a year ago, and only one-third as many triples. Granted, we expected his performance to suffer a bit given the differences in ballpark factors between Philadelphia and Salem. Still, we were hoping the drop-off would be a little less drastic.

The Ugly:

Miguel Cabrera hit just .203/.333/.331 against left-handers this year. This is compared to his MLB line of .302/.409/.517. Those numbers aren't even close. I can't even begin to explain that discrepancy.

Kyle Seager hit .307/.394/.538 against right-handers in MLB 2016. For us, he hit .237/.324/.425. He barely hit half as many home runs for us as he did in MLB 2016: 17 vs. 30. His usefulness to us is so razor-thin that he's on the bubble for our 25-man playoffs roster. His greatest asset is his Ex range in the field.

Another player on that bubble, incredibly enough, is the man who was supposed to be our "ace." Our "franchise pitcher", Stephen Strasburg. In what has to be the most bizarre and inexplicable underperformance in recent memory, Stras posted a 5.09 ERA on the season (vs. the 3.60 ERA he posted in MLB 2016.) He allowed nearly a base hit per inning (vs. 7.3 hits per nine in MLB), and coughed up 28 longballs (vs. 15 in MLB.) Nothing about his record makes a lick of sense. He surrendered 17 home runs to left-handers (vs. 9 in MLB), and nearly doubled the number of homers to right-handers (11 vs. 6.) Maybe his player card is faulty. Maybe Diamond Mind just sucks. I have no idea how to explain it.

The third player vying for that 25th roster spot was supposed to be our "closer," Nate Jones. We had pursued Jones in the winter, as he seemed like a terrific, and yet unheralded, candidate for the position. He posted stellar numbers in a very tough MLB ballpark. We figured he would thrive in our pitcher-friendly park. We were wrong. In only 37+ innings, he allowed six home runs. He managed to blow five saves in only sixteen opportunities. Most inexplicably of all, his walk rate nearly doubled (3.6 vs. 1.9) what it was in MLB. Maybe it's time to fire our pitching coach.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Chapter Five Review

The Good:

We won four of the seven series we played in Chapter Five, including sweeps of Myrtle Beach and Western Kansas. We finished with a respectable 17-11 record. Our .621 winning percentage is the fourth highest in the BDBL. We are on pace to win 99 games this season. If we can go 18-12 in the final chapter, we will reach 100 wins for the eighth time in franchise history.

It's been a hot-and-cold season for Miguel Cabrera. He was hot in Chapter Five, hitting .330/.389/.504, with a team-leading 21.2 runs created. Alex Dickerson (.405/.465/.730) and Gary Sanchez (.345/.429/.517) also brought the heat in Chapter Five.

On the hill, Jon Gray (3-2, 2.27 ERA in five starts) finally showed the type of performance we expected from him this season. Daniel Norris (1-1, 2.35) also pitched well in three spot starts. Matt Shoemaker (3-1, 2.60) continues to provide solid efforts every time he takes the mound. And let's not forget to mention the stellar pitching performance of Jayson Werth, who posted a 2.84 ERA in six-plus innings as a mop-up man.

The Bad:

Stephen Strasburg (3-2, 3.94 ERA in five starts) continues to be an enigma. He has allowed home runs in fifteen of his twenty-three starts this season, and a total of twenty-two on the season. He allowed just fifteen all of last MLB season. This is nothing new in his BDBL career.

Jose Altuve hit a respectable .284/.344/.371 for the chapter, but it was yet another mediocre performance for him that was well below his MLB numbers. When we traded a top-five prospect for him, we expected an all-star performance in return. Instead, his numbers are barely league-average.

The Ugly:

We had our asses handed to us by the Blazers last chapter -- at home, no less. We lost all four games, and two of them were complete blow-outs. Stephen Matz allowed fourteen runs in four innings in one of those games. (That game featured a relief appearance by Jayson Werth, who allowed just two runs in his five innings of work.) Junior Guerra allowed five runs in his five innings in the final game of the series. Nate Jones and Sammy Solis -- arguably our best two relievers -- then followed his performance by allowing five earned runs combined while recording just one out.

Our chapter ended by losing three out of four games to the Granite State Lightning, who own the worst record in the BDBL. We were shut out twice, and our offense managed just three runs combined in three of the four games. (We scored eight in our one and only win.)

Matz's performance last chapter was an embarrassment. He posted a 7.50 ERA in four starts, hiking his season's ERA from 2.76 all the way to 3.69. Guerra (5.55 ERA in Chapter Five) continued to disappoint. Raisel Iglesias' line (4 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5 K) speaks for itself.

Offensively, Kyle Seager remains a head-scratching disappointment. He hit just .200/.327/.367 last chapter, and is hitting only .240/.324/.421 on the season. He has hit only half as many home runs (15) as he did in MLB, and his numbers against right-handers (.239/.324/.422) dwarf his MLB performance (.307/.394/.538). It's as if he's a completely different hitter.

2018: A Look Ahead

Our 2018 offense is beginning to round into form nicely. Jose Ramirez (.309/.363/.566) is having an MVP-caliber season. Elvis Andrus (.304/.348/.494 with a surprising 20 HR) is enjoying a career year. Gary Sanchez (.279/.348/.535 with 30 HR) is a potential all-star behind the plate. Andrew Benintendi (.276/.357/.436) and Odubel Herrera (.292/.337/.472) look like useful contributors at this point.

The pitching side is much worse. Not one of the nine starting pitchers we had heading into this season is projected to log more than 180 innings. Strasburg currently leads all Salem starters with just 156 innings. Matt Shoemaker and Stephen Matz have already been shut down for the season, and neither pitched well enough to deserve a roster spot next year. Jon Gray has pitched well of late, but has just 93 innings under his belt.

Junior Guerra (65 IP, 5.15 ERA) pitched so poorly he was demoted to the bush leagues, and will likely be cut from our roster this winter, giving us nothing to show for our Aaron Judge trade. Clay Buchholz and Ruby de la Rosa were also shut down early in the year, and both will likely be released. Drew Hutchison never made it back to the big leagues this year, and will also be released. He occupied a much-needed roster space all year for us, which made it impossible to pick up free agents.

Daniel Norris (89 IP, 5.36 ERA) has been abysmal this season after so much pre-season hype. Mike Montgomery (116 IP, 3.64 ERA) could provide some spot starts, and Hyun-Jin Ryu (118 IP, 3.59 ERA) has been serviceable.

All told, we have roughly 483 innings of serviceable starting pitching innings for 2018. We only need to find 477 more, and we might have a decent rotation. This puts us in the worst possible position heading into this winter. We are neither good enough to compete or bad enough to tank. We could trade Andrus and Ramirez for future considerations and punt the 2018 season altogether. Or we could fill in the gaps with fillers and hope the Baseball Gods are kinder to us next year. With Shohei Otani reportedly on the way, it's looking more and more like 2019 will be our next competitive season.

Friday, July 28, 2017

Chapter Four Review

Hey, remember when the Cowtippers briefly captured first place in the McGowan Division for the first time in forever? Good times.

Could Chapter Four have possibly gone worse than it did for the boys in spotted caps? I'm hard-pressed to think of a way that it could. Not only did we suffer our first losing chapter (11-13) of the season, but the despicable Blazers of the South played miles above their heads and finished the chapter with a BDBL-best record of 21-3.

Needless to say, the division race is now over, as we are now 14 games behind with two chapters remaining. All that is left for us now is to play out the string, try our best to avoid those nagging overusage penalties, and prepare for an OLDS showdown with either the Blazers or Undertakers. Both teams are on pace to win more than 120 games this season, so it hardly matters which team we face. We will be the heavy underdog either way.

The Good

Our offense continues to excel beyond our expectations. We hit .291/.355/.437 as a team in Chapter Four, and crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of .319/.407/.514. We scored 108 runs on the chapter, which averages 4.5 runs per game. That should be enough run support for any team to sport a winning record.

Our recent acquisition, Martin Prado, has been an absolute beast for us since we acquired him two chapters ago. He hit .455/.500/.818 in 22 at-bats last chapter, and will be a tremendous weapon in our lineup against Kershaw, Sale, Quintana, and Moore in the OLDS.

Trea Turner (.429/.451/.633) continued to mash the ball last chapter, as did all-star Jose Ramirez (.356/.407/.505). Cameron Maybin (.382/.404/.455), Carlos Ruiz (.321/.441/.357), Elvis Andrus (.303/.391/.434), and Gary Sanchez (.281/.395/.656) also had a stellar chapter at the plate.

On the mound, there really isn't much to include in the "good" column. Stephen Matz posted a 1.84 ERA in four starts, but went just 2-2. Jon Gray owned a 1.82 ERA in his four starts, which is an encouraging turnaround to his disappointing season. David Phelps owned a 1.23 ERA in 7+ innings of work, including one spot start.

The Bad

Where to begin? As a whole, our pitching staff posted a 4.43 ERA for the chapter. We allowed more hits (220) than innings (215+). We allowed a whopping 29 home runs (1.3 per nine), and allowed a 722 OPS.

The offensive performances of Jose Altuve (.264/.313/.349), Odubel Herrera (.259/.348/.483), and Miguel Cabrera (.253/.355/.374) were far below their normal level.

The Ugly

It is very difficult to understand why our pitching has been so horrendous this season. In particular, Stephen Strasburg continues to be a stunning disappointment year after year. He went just 1-3 with a 5.76 ERA in Chapter Four, and now owns a record of just 4-5 on the season. Four wins. From our ACE. The most perplexing and aggravating part of his performance continues to be his propensity to serve up longballs by the bushel. He allowed 15 home runs in all of the MLB 2016 season, and yet has served up 18 in the BDBL already -- in more than 40 fewer innings. He is on pace to allow 30 home runs in this BDBL season. THIRTY. In case you didn't notice, that's TWICE as many home runs allowed in our simulated season -- while pitching in a ballpark that is less conducive to home runs than his MLB park!

As if it weren't agonizing enough to deal with the pain of watching Aaron Judge launch one 500-foot bomb after another throughout this MLB season, we've also had to watch the man we acquired in that Judge trade, Junior Guerra, turn in one horrendous outing after another -- both in MLB and the BDBL. It could have soothed our aching heart somewhat if Guerra dominated for us as we expected, and/or if he gave us some value going forward. Instead, he has been absolutely useless for us this year (5.95 ERA in 19+ IP last chapter), and will likely be released on Cutdown Day.

Mike Montgomery posted a 2.52 ERA in 100 IP last year in MLB. For us, he's sporting a 5.09 ERA in 63+ innings. He's allowed 30% more hits than he allowed in MLB, 21% more walks, and his OPS against right-handers is 57 points higher. He looks like two completely different pitchers when you place his MLB and BDBL numbers side-by-side. There is literally no resemblance.

Sammy Solis posted a 7.27 ERA last chapter, and Liam Hendricks' ERA was a whopping 8.59. 'Nuff said.

Our newest acquisition, Nate Jones, was supposed to fill the role of "closer." Instead, he posted a 5.40 ERA, lost two games, blew three saves, and allowed seven walks in thirteen innings. Note that this is the guy whose MLB walk rate was less than 2.0 in MLB! Just to add insult to injury, Jones is now out for the remainder of the 2017 MLB season and will be released on Cutdown Day.

We lost our first series of the season in Chapter Four -- a four-game sweep by our likely OLDS opponents, the Undertakers. We managed to score just eleven runs in that series, and were outscored 21-11. A sign of things to come.

We also somehow managed to split a series against the Myrtle Beach Hitmen, who sport the second-worst record in the Ozzie League.

A Look Ahead to 2018

We finally have a top-30 hitter for 2018 thanks to the tremendous month of June posted by Jose Ramirez. He is hitting .316/.372/.558 on the season. Unfortunately, that is the only bit of good news we have for 2018. In other news...


  • Trea Turner has missed several weeks with a broken wrist. Even when healthy, he was hitting a disappointing .279/.324/.422 at the time of his injury.
  • Our $13 million first baseman, Miguel Cabrera, is having arguably the worst year of his 15-year major league career. He is hitting a robust .257/.343/.417 on the season, with a whopping 12 homers, and a WAR of -- get this -- 0.1. Zero point one.
  • Gary Sanchez missed a huge chunk of the season due to injury, and is hitting a relatively-mediocre .266/.342/.479 in just under 300 PA's.
  • Elvis Andrus has hit a surprising 13 home runs this season, but has sacrificed his plate discipline (.326 OBP) for power.
  • Andrew Benintendi (.266/.347/.412) is having a decent year for a rookie, but we expected a little more than what he has shown so far.
  • Odubel Herrera (.271/.315/.436) has been pretty much useless. Heading into the season, we were optimistic that the gains he made at age 24 last year would be carried over to his age-25 year. Not so much.
  • Of course, we also had great optimism that this would be the breakout season for another 25-year-old, Jorge Soler. Again, not so much. He's hitting just .154/.245/.275, which may rank as the worst offensive season in 2017.
  • We had hoped we wouldn't need to eat Martin Prado's $4.5 million salary next year. But instead, he decided to injure himself and miss the rest of the season after racking up 147 PA's. Nicely done, Martin.
  • On the pitching side, we hoped that Clay Buchholz would find new life in the National League. Nope. Injured and out for the season.
  • We hoped that this would be the year that Stephen Strasburg finally translated his electric stuff into a Cy Young-worthy season. Nope. He's now injured, too.
  • Would Steven Matz build on his breakout season at age 26, and finally stay healthy for more than a month? Nope. Not only is he sporting a 5.51 ERA at the moment, but he's racked up less than 50 innings thanks to countless injuries.
  • This was the season that Jon Gray would break out and become a top-15 ace, right? Wrong. He's sporting a 5.84 ERA in just 37 innings. Way to go, Jon. Maybe next year, eh?
  • Surely, THIS would be the year where Daniel Norris becomes a legitimate ace, fulfilling the prophecies of so many scouts, experts, and prognosticators! Errr....no. He's also sporting an ERA over 5.00, has thrown just 85 innings, and is currently nursing an injury with no timetable to return.
  • Drew Hutchison? Hyun-Jin Ryu? David Phelps? Mike Montgomery? Surely, one of these fliers panned out! Nope, nope, nope, and nope.
  • Okay, how about Matt Shoemaker? He broke out in a big way in the second half of last season. Surely, that momentum carried over into 2017! But no. It didn't. And now he's injured, too.
Basically we had TEN starting pitchers who were all heralded as "breakout candidates" heading into the 2017 MLB season -- and ALL TEN failed miserably. It looks more and more like 2018 will be yet another rebuilding year for Salem.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Chapter Three Review

We went 17-7 in Chapter Three, outscored our opponents by 62 runs (second only to the ridiculous Undertakers), and scored a BDBL-leading 153 runs. And at the end of that wildly-successful chapter, we managed to gain ground in our division...by one whole game. Such is life in the McGowan Division during the Kershaw Era.

We won five of the six series we played this past chapter, and split the other. Our offense is really beginning to gel as the players who began the season mired in deep slumps have rebounded nicely. We hit .301/.361/.476 as a team last chapter, with strong splits against both lefties (.887 OPS) and righties (.815). Our pitching staff continues to be a disappointment, but we're hoping to see some improvement in the second half.

To that end, we went out and acquired an important piece of our bullpen puzzle just hours before the trading deadline. Nate Jones hasn't been overly impressive for the Niagara Locks this year (3.67 ERA in 34+ IP, with 734/680 splits), but we're hoping our pitching coach, Greg Maddux, can turn him around. If Jones pitches as well as he did in MLB last season, he will be our go-to guy in key situations.

THE GOOD:

-- The two newest members of our pitching staff performed well in Chapter Three. Clay Buchholz tossed six shutout innings in his only start of the chapter, and Liam Hendricks posted a 1.17 ERA in 15+ innings, filling the role he shares with Rubby de la Rosa (who had a fine chapter himself: 2-0, 2.38 ERA in 11+ IP).

-- Stephen Matz and Junior Guerra combined to go 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA in seven starts last chapter.

-- David Phelps (2-0, 1.59 ERA in 17+ IP) was the workhorse of our bullpen in Chapter Three. The acquisition of Jones should lighten his workload.

-- Our newest member (aside from Jones), Martin Prado, had an unbelievable chapter. He hit .536/.581/.786 in 28 at-bats, with a pair of homers and five RBI's. Needless to say, he can't maintain this pace, but he has already given us more production against left-handers than Jorge Soler.

-- Since we need to rest Gary Sanchez quite often, we have to rely on our backup catchers to carry most of the usage load. Both Carlos Ruiz (.424/.513/.455) and Travis d'Arnaud (.379/.400/.517) performed remarkably well last chapter in their dual backup role.

-- After a very slow start, Elvis Andrus has picked up the pace big-time over the last two chapters. He hit .364/.450/.545 last chapter, and is now hitting .321/.395/.472 on the season. He will most likely represent the Cowtippers in the all-star game, either as a starter or reserve.

-- Also a slow start, Odubel Herrera really came into his own last chapter, hitting .354/.449/.431 with 13 runs scored.

-- Jose Ramirez (.344/.402/.510 on the chapter) also continues to rake while playing three different positions on the diamond.

-- Little Trea Turner hit .308/.349/.769 with five home runs in limited time (just 39 AB's). Even Littler Jose Altuve hit .305/.345/.486 last chapter, with four homers and 21 runs scored.

THE BAD:

-- Cameron Maybin hit just .200/.234/.267 in 60 AB's, with three walks and thirteen K's. He is hitting just .260/.312/.315 on the season, with an OPS that is 174 points below his MLB OPS.

-- We were expecting great things from Jon Gray at the start of this season. We're still waiting for those great things to happen. In five starts (31 IP) last chapter, Gray went just 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA. He allowed more hits (33) than innings, and served up five home runs. On the season, in only 58% of his MLB innings, Gray has nearly matched the number of home runs he allowed all of last MLB season -- while pitching in Coors Field. Someone explain that one to me.

THE UGLY:

-- Alex Dickerson (.111/.172/.111) went 3-for-27 in Chapter Three. He is hitting just .232/.310/.449 on the season. Given his MLB ballpark factors, we were expecting much more out of him this season.

-- Jayson Werth began this season on fire, but cooled off considerably (.095/.222/.238) in Chapter Three. Essentially, against left-handed pitching, Prado took over where Werth left off, and Werth took over where Soler left off!

-- Stephen Strasburg is supposed to be the ace of this pitching staff. Instead, he went 0-2 in four starts last chapter, with a 6.75 ERA. As has been true throughout his BDBL career, his biggest problem is serving up one longball after another. In 80+ innings this season, he has allowed 12 home runs. All of last MLB season, in 147+ innings, he allowed only 15.

-- When we acquired Mike Montgomery, we envisioned a quality long reliever who could pitch multiple innings in key situations and contribute the occasional spot-start against good left-handed lineups. Instead, what we got was a below-average pitcher that struggles against both lefties and righties, and has blown four times as many saves as he tallied all last MLB season. Chapter Three's performance (6.48 ERA in 8+ IP) was his worst to date.

2018: A Look Ahead

We're nearing the all-star break in MLB, which is usually a good time to assess our team next season. Had we not traded Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano last winter, we would have two of the top fifteen hitters in baseball (by offensive WAR) right now. Had we not traded Avisail Garcia last chapter, we would have three of the top twenty. Had we not traded Josh Harrison and Starlin Castro, we would have five of the top 35. Had we kept Justin Upton, we'd have six of the top forty hitters in the game today.

But wait. It gets worse. If we hadn't traded Travis Shaw, and if we hadn't released Scott Schebler, we'd have EIGHT of the top fifty hitters in the game of baseball. If we didn't trade Neil Walker, we'd have nine of the top sixty.

Unfortunately, we did all of the above. As a result, you need to scroll all the way down to #68 before finding a single member of the 2018 Cowtippers (Jose Ramirez.) Andrus is #74, and Miguel Cabrera is #94. No other Cowtipper ranks among the top 100.

On the pitching side, Strasburg ranks as the #4 pitcher in the game based on WAR. Daniel Norris (#46) is the only other Cowtipper among the top fifty.

Like many other teams around the BDBL, Salem's 2018 season has been plagued by injuries. Stephen Matz missed the entire months of April and May, and just recently made his first appearance of the season. Jon Gray has missed most of the season, and won't return until later this month. Junior Guerra has made only four starts all season. Miguel Cabrera missed a chunk of time and hasn't been himself all year. Alex Dickerson has yet to play a single game and has no timetable to return. Martin Prado, Gary Sanchez, and Trea Turner also missed portions of the season.

At this point, the 2018 season does not look promising at all for Salem, but you never know what will happen in the second half.

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Chapter Two Review

I was told that my last chapter review was a little too negative. Actually, I believe the exact critique I heard was that I whined like a little bitch. So, I will try to be a little more positive this time around.

The Cowtippers wrapped up Chapter Two with a horrendous embarrassing lousy somewhat disappointing record of 17-11. Thanks to New Milford's ridiculous well-earned 20-8 record last chapter, we now find ourselves five games out of the division lead, but with a comfortable six-game lead over the Flagstaff Outlaws in the oh-so-coveted wild card race.

THE GOOD:

We managed to split a series against the legendary Los Altos Undertakers -- on the road. We walloped them by a score of 12-3 in the first game, and then barely eked out a series tie in the final game. Since this is the "good" section, I won't mention how we lost the other two games.

Our offense performed extraordinarily well in Chapter Two. We hit .290/.350/.444 as a team, and scored 154 runs (ranking third in the OL as of this writing.) After a rough start, Elvis Andrus really came into his own in Chapter Two, hitting .343/.405/.507. Carlos Ruiz (.471/.571/.882), Jayson Werth (.438/.526/.813), Jose Ramirez (.362/.402/.491), Odubel Herrera (.333/.398/.369), Trea Turner (.316/.328/.491), and our Chapter Two MVP Miguel Cabrera (.322/.410/.552) all did a tremendous job for us.

On the pitching side, newly-acquired Liam Hendriks (1.04 ERA in 8+ IP) provided some much-needed bullpen depth. Stephen Strasburg (2-0, 1.44 ERA in 31+) had a terrific chapter. Matt Shoemaker (3-1, 3.00) and Stephen Matz (2-0, 3.32) weren't bad, either.

THE BAD:

Our pitching staff was just atrocious in Chapter Two. We posted a 4.21 team ERA, and walked 109 batters in 246 innings. As I mentioned last chapter, the walks are killing this team, and there isn't any explanation as to why it is happening.

Jon Gray (3-2, 4.68 ERA in Chapter Two) should be a MUCH better pitcher than what we've seen so far. His BDBL ERA is now higher than it was in Colorado last year. That is just plain ridiculous. He allowed 18 walks and four home runs in 32+ innings last chapter. That's just stupid.

Junior Guerra (1-1, 4.88 ERA) was equally disappointing last chapter. We traded a budding young perennial all-star to acquire what we thought would be half a season of borderline Cy Young-caliber pitching. Instead, Guerra is just 2-3 on the season, with a 4.46 ERA -- nearly two runs higher than his MLB ERA.

Although we technically traded Amed Rosario for Jose Altuve, we wouldn't have made that trade if we hadn't been able to trade Neil Walker for Mike Montgomery. Monty was supposed to be a valuable long reliever for us this year, and possibly a member of our starting rotation in 2018. Instead, he won't be starting for us next year, and he's been less than useful (4.14 ERA in 37 IP) for us this season. He was solely responsible for at least two of our losses last chapter.

When we acquired Kyle Seager in a winter deal last winter, we really thought that we had strengthened our lineup against right-handed pitching. Instead, Seager hit just .245/.336/.383 with one home run in Chapter Two, and is hitting a modest .268/.354/.475 on the season.

THE UGLY:

We went 4-4 against the Granite State Lightning and Myrtle Beach Hitmen last chapter. Those two teams currently own winning percentages of .231 and .313, respectively. Both are projected to lose 100 games this season. Yet, the best we could do against both teams was split.

We lost a game to Granite State because our offense couldn't get anything going against the bullpen committee of Matt Cain, Jeanmar Gomez, Blake Wood, and the legendary Vance Worley. We lost another when the Luis Perdomo out-pitched Jon Gray. In that game, Jay Bruce hit a three-run homer off of Gray that eventually decided the game. Had Gray not hit the pitcher, Perdomo, with a pitch two batters earlier, that wouldn't have happened. It's the little things that get you.

In the entire BDBL, only three teams have averaged fewer runs per game than Myrtle Beach. They are hitting just .238/.295/.365 as a team. And yet somehow, some way, our Salem Cowtippers pitching staff could not contain the offensive juggernaut that is the Hitmen. We managed to allow eight runs to the Hitmen in the second game of our series, and then topped that by allowing NINE runs in the third game. We very nearly lost that series if not for a come-from-behind victory in the final game. Myrtle Beach has scored eight or more runs in only six games this season -- one-third of which were against our pitching staff.

When we acquired Clay Buchholz, it was for the sole purpose of filling innings. Every calculation we performed suggested that Buchholz would pitch much better in our ballpark than his MLB numbers implied, so we rolled the dice. As a reward for our faith in him, Buchholz managed to not only injured himself in MLB, making him useless for next year, but he also went 1-2 wth a 7.13 ERA in his three starts as a Cowtipper. Thanks, Clay.

Offensively, no one in the BDBL sucked more than Travis d'Arnaud (.175/.214/.200) in Chapter Two. And Jorge Soler (.179/.273/.359) has been so useless against left-handers that we are now looking to fill that glaring hole in our lineup.

***

Well...given the number of "uglies" above, I guess I failed in my mission not to be too negative. But once this team gives me a reason for optimism, I'll take advantage of it!

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Chapter One Review

Normally you would think a 20-win chapter would be a cause to celebrate, but in Salem, it's just another second-place finish. When Clayton Kershaw went down with a near-season-ending injury in June, when David Peralta finally performed like the fourth outfielder he is, when Mookie Betts forgot how to hit left-handers, when Troy Tulowitzki discovered that he isn't in Coors anymore, and when Michael Saunders performed a fantastic second half belly-flop, we figured that maybe -- maybe -- we wouldn't have to worry about the Blazers in 2017. But no. Heaven fucking forbid they ever stumble even a little bit.

Of the seven series we played in Chapter One, we split two, swept one, and took three out of four in the other four. We posted a respectable 3.17 ERA for the chapter, but our pitching staff allowed a completely baffling and irritating number of walks. We averaged 3.6 walks per nine, which would lead the league if it weren't for the Las Vegas Flamingos. Even more baffling and irritating was the performance of our offense. We hit .263/.330/.440, which is just about league average across the board. We were also thrown out on the basepaths twelve times in twenty-seven attempts -- a success rate of just 56%. In our final series of the chapter, Jose Altuve was picked off of first base -- twice -- by a pitcher with a Pr pickoff rating! There were two things at which this Cowtippers team was supposed to have excelled this season: getting on base and stealing bases. We didn't do either in Chapter One.

It seemed as though every game was a nail-biter. Out of our twenty wins, seven were by a margin of only one run, and eight were won by two runs. In fact, we only played four games the entire chapter that were decided by more than three runs.


THE GOOD

Our bullpen was outstanding in Chapter One. Notably, Rubby de la Rosa (1.47 ERA in 18+ IP), Mike Montgomery (2.45 in 18+), and Raisel Iglesias (2.25 in 24). The problem is that we overused those three arms to such an extent that we'll have to add another arm or two down the road. On the starting side, our two southpaws, Stephen Matz (3-1, 2.81 ERA in 25+ IP) and Daniel Norris (3-0, 1.02 in 17+), were phenomenal.

On the offensive side of the ball, Trea Turner (.396/.431/.604), Miguel Cabrera (.308/.392/.606), Jose Altuve (.333/.386/.496), Gary Sanchez (.273/.429/.697), and Kyle Seager (.292/.373/.573) all exceeded their lofty expectations. As with our bullpen, we'll have to make some adjustments to our usage going forward, as Turner and Sanchez are extremely limited. The same goes for Andrew Benintendi (.424/.472/.606), who has already racked up 35 of his allotted 129 plate appearances.

THE BAD

Odubel Herrera hit .303/.374/.467 against right-handers in MLB last year. So far this season, he's hitting just .195/.283/.232 against righties -- which is a problem because he's supposed to be our leadoff hitter against righties. If this is what we should expect from him for the remainder of the season it's going to be a very long season.

The same applies to Jose Ramirez. After hitting .312/.363/.462 in MLB last year, we were expecting a borderline MVP performance from him this year. Instead, he's hitting just .247/.311/.382 with no home runs.

We expected very big things from Jon Gray this year. He posted very impressive numbers in MLB last year, and by moving from the league's most hitter-friendly ballpark to one of the league's best pitcher's parks, we were hoping to see a huge improvement in those numbers. Instead, his BDBL ERA (4.45) is only slightly lower than his 4.61 MLB ERA. What irritates me most of all is that he has walked 19 batters in only 32+ innings. His BB/9 rate of 5.3 isn't in the same universe as his MLB rate of 3.2. He's also allowed home runs at a higher rate (1.7 vs. 1.0). Seriously, how do you go from Coors Field to Anaheim and allow MORE home runs??

Stephen Strasburg was supposed to be our staff ace. Instead, he managed to win only one game in Chapter One, and posted a mediocre 4.10 ERA. He's already allowed six home runs, which is more than a third of the total number of homers he allowed all last year in MLB. Of course, this is nothing new with him.

Junior Guerra is another pitcher sporting an absolutely ridiculous walk total at this point. He allowed 3.2 BB/9 in MLB, and has allowed 5.9 BB/9 so far this season. Nearly every pitcher on the Salem pitching staff is allowing walks at a far higher rate than their MLB numbers. Raisel Iglesias (3.0 vs. 3.8), de la Rosa (3.6 vs. 4.4), and David Phelps (3.9 vs. 5.9) are also walking batters at a ridiculous pace. And bear in mind that I don't pitch around all that often!

THE UGLY

Speaking of Phelps, we were counting on him to be a workhorse in the bullpen, and we used him a lot in Chapter One. In 18+ innings, he allowed 10 runs -- all earned. His 4.91 ERA isn't anywhere near his MLB ERA of 2.28.

As a group, Salem pitchers are batting .054/.070/.054 this season. They have three hits this year. THREE. And one walk. ONE. They have zero extra base hits, and have knocked in zero runs. They have performed only slightly worse than our catching tandem of Travis d'Arnaud (.093/.111/.116) and Carlos Ruiz (.143/.294/.214.) When Sanchez isn't in the lineup -- which is more often than not -- we really need one of our two backup catchers to step up and -- oh, I don't know -- hit at least their weight! Combined, those two catchers have six hits -- SIX! -- in 59 at-bats.

Prior to the final series of the chapter, Elvis Andrus had posted numbers that weren't much better than our two backup catchers. He went on a tear in that series and raised his season average to .250/.319/.350. Prior to that series, he was hitting just .178/.250/.178! With a backup catcher and Andrus at the bottom of the lineup, it's like having three pitchers bat in a row!

Given all of the bad and ugly we witnessed in Chapter One, it's a miracle this team won twenty games! Next chapter, we face the daunting task of playing the Undertakers, Blazers, and Infidels all in the same chapter. Should be fun.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Opening Day

Opening Day. Are there any two more exciting words in the English language? "Free beer", perhaps. For Matt Clemm, "Taco Tuesday" may elicit equal excitement. For me, Opening Day means hope. Maybe this is the year. Maybe this time, all of my hard work will pay off. Maybe all that time I spent reading and pouring over numbers and spreadsheets will have actually paid dividends. Maybe the Baseball Gods will finally stop pissing all over me, and my team will perform exactly as awesomely as I expect. Maybe this year, Lucy won't yank that football away, and I'll kick it straight through the goalposts.

Then, before the first game has ended, all of that hope completely drains from my system and is instantly replaced by that familiar sensation of simmering rage in the pit of my belly, and I ask myself, "Why, why, why do I waste my time playing this stupid fucking game?"

Tony Chamra hates me. That is the only explanation I have as to why he forces me to open each season in the pit stain of New Milford. Don't get me wrong, I love the town itself. I was born and raised there. It is a quaint New England village that seems to have been hermetically-sealed in a time capsule. You walk along its lush town green, lined along each side by little mom-and-pop-run shops and buildings that have stood since before the American Revolution, with a World War II tank at one end of the green and a statue of Abe Lincoln at the other, with a green-painted bandstand at its center, and it feels as if you've been magically transported into a Norman Rockwell painting.

But if you stroll a little further away from this heartwarming scenery, toward the darkened waters of the Housatonic River, you will soon spot its looming presence on the horizon. Then, that smell will invade your nostrils and there is no mistaking where you are. Nestle Field, home of the despicable Blazers.

It is an eyesore amidst the lush New England landscape. Its architect must have been the same person who designed the Death Star. Gray, bleak, and uninviting. As you approach the monstrosity further, you begin to see and hear them. Pretentious New Milford fans, strolling toward the ballpark in their Izod-clad ensembles, with their white linen pants and boat shoes. Between discussions about their yacht club and the most recent editorial by Paul Krugman, you will hear these modern-day Yuppies brag about how bored they are with their favorite ballclub. "Winning a hundred games every year has become so mundane," one will say. "Why, it's hardly worth the effort to watch them anymore, knowing the outcome is predestined. If it weren't for the fabulous brie and wine selection at the Stadium Club, I'd probably forgo the entire charade."

Oddly enough, mixed in with these self-impressed snobs are legions of farmers smelling of manure and working-class joes covered with grease and oil. For the most part, these fans fill the right field bleachers, where they continue the proud Blazers tradition of performing a "roll call" where they give the middle finger to every member of the opposing team.

Our spring training schedule was a bit limited this year, and we played only six games. Oddly enough, all six were against the Blazers. When we won all six of those games, I knew right away that we were in trouble for this Opening Day Series. Surely, the Baseball Gods were fucking with me earlier than usual. My suspicions seemed unwarranted at first, as we took a 3-0 lead through the first six innings.

Our ace, Stephen Strasburg, has always struggled against the Blazers (with one notable postseason exception), but he was in cruise control throughout this game. After seven innings and 107 pitches, it was time to lift him and turn to our bullpen. And that is when Lucy yanked the football away once again.

We spent the winter trying to secure a closer. We tried to trade for one and failed. We tried to sign one in the auction, and even bid more than we ever wanted to bid for a reliever, and went 0-for-3. That left only three viable closers on the free agent market, and with the eighth overall pick in the draft, we felt fairly confident we would get one of them. But no. So, instead, we settled for the consolation prize of David Phelps.

Aside from issuing a few too many walks to left-handers, Phelps is a pretty decent reliever. Used in the right situations, he could be tremendously useful. I brought him into what I thought was an appropriate situation, where he would face two right handers in the next three batters in the order. Instead, Blazers skipper Anthony Peburn pinch hit for his expensive shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, sending lefty Greg Garcia to the plate instead.

No problem, I figured. Garcia draws a lot of walks, and Phelps issues a lot them, so that's probably what will happen. But no. Garcia doubled to lead off the inning. After Phelps whiffed another left-handed pinch hitter, that brought righty James McCann to the plate. Let me pause here a minute to give you McCann's numbers against righties:

.201/.243/.268

I wasn't even sure why McCann was in the lineup, frankly. I was ecstatic when a pinch hitter wasn't called to hit for him. My ecstasy didn't last long. McCann roped a base hit to center, easily scoring Garcia from second.

No problem, I thought. We're still up by a run. New Milford had Carpenter, Betts, and Freeman stepping to the plate. Carpenter and Freeman are both left-handed, and Betts can't hit lefties. So, the no-brainer move was to send my best left-handed pitcher, Mike Montgomery, out to the mound to shut this shit down.

The first batter, Carpenter, whiffed. Visions of winning the OL Manager of the Year swirled in my head.

Betts, who -- again -- can't hit lefties, singled. That's okay, though. He's still a good hitter, and we only need one more out.

Up stepped Freddie Freeman, New Milford's $13.5 million free agent winter bonus baby.

Double to the gap. Two runs scored. Game over.

That familiar sensation of boiling blood churned in my gut once more. Welcome, old friend. How I haven't missed you a bit.

That sensation continued in Game Two. Masahiro Tanaka, who our offense beat like a red-headed Jesse Pinkman in the preseason, completely shut down our righty-bashing, tailor-made-for-Nestle Field lineup. We managed all of two bloop singles through the first six innings. Gary Sanchez put us on the board in the seventh with the first home run of his BDBL career, but that was all the scoring we would do in this game.

After a 6-0 preseason, we then sat with an 0-2 record for the games that actually count.

Game Three kept the blood boiling. New Milford carried a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning. Once again, our high-octane offense decided to take the day off. Or so it seemed. Finally, in the seventh inning, the Cowtippers I knew and loved in the preseason finally showed up. Trea Turner got the ball rolling with a three-run pinch-hit bomb -- the first of his BDBL career. We scored four more runs in the eighth inning, and three more in the ninth. We scored 11 runs in the game -- ten of them in the final three innings!

At last, we had our first victory of 2017.

Just as it seemed our 2017 season would be filled with even more disappointment, we had reason for optimism once again. Hope was alive. Maybe this could be our year after all.

We handed the ball to Junior Guerra in Game Four, and he did not disappoint. He gave us six strong innings of shutout pitching, allowing just three hits and four walks. We then turned the game over to our bullpen trio of Rubby de la Rosa, David Phelps, and Sammy Solis. Incredibly, they managed to handle the workload, surrendering only one run.

We escaped with a split. If you had told me before this series we would split, I would've been disappointed. If you told me in the sixth inning of Game One that we would split, I would've been extremely disappointed. Given the circumstances, however, we'll take it. This is the first time since 2012 that we haven't begun a season with a losing record after one series.

One thing I have learned about this 2017 Cowtippers team is that they are extremely fun to manage. There is just so much flexibility on this roster. I can move guys around in the starting lineup or during the game, and really take advantage of situations as they develop. If I need a power bat at a certain point, I have one. If I need a guy to draw a walk or put a ball in play, we have that, too. Nearly every player on this team can steal a base if needed, and nearly every one of them can go first to third or second to home without much risk.

We have three players on the active roster who are rated at shortstop, three who are rated in center field, and one who is rated at third base, shortstop, and left field. In the bullpen, we have three relievers who are also rated as starters. We have righty-specialists, lefty-specialists, and reverse-split specialists. It really is fun moving all of these chess pieces around the board.

Best of luck to all my fellow GM's and managers this season. May Lucy not yank away your football.