Monday, October 23, 2017

2017 OLDS: The Gory Details

To say that we were the underdogs in our OL Division Series matchup against the Los Altos Undertakers would be a laughable understatement. The Undertakers won 18 more games during the regular season, scored 77 more runs, and allowed 122 fewer runs. Prior to Game One, if you had told me that we would out-score Los Altos in the Division Series by six runs, I would have had a good laugh at your expense, and yet that is exactly what we did. And we still lost the series.

We have a bad habit of setting the wrong kinds of records in the BDBL, including the longest losing streak in BDBL World Series history. In 2017, we set yet another unwanted postseason record. We are now the only team to have ever lost four one-run games in a postseason series. Here is how it all happened.


Game One


Los Altos clubbed 277 home runs during the regular season, in large part thanks to their home ballpark, which carries a home run factor of 137 for right-handed batters. With their lineup filled with right-handed power hitters, we determined that if we were to have any shot of beating this team in Los Altos, we had to somehow keep their righties in the ballpark. To that end, we decided to hand the ball to Jon Gray for Game One.

Of all of our starting pitchers, Jon yielded the lowest slugging percentage against right-handed batters than any other starter except Steven Matz. With Matz being left-handed, we felt that it would be better to keep the Undertakers' short-usage righties (Wilmer Flores and Sandy Leon) on the bench in that ballpark.

As the saying goes, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Gray didn't make it out of the third inning before his day was through. In two-plus innings, he allowed seven hits and five runs. Two of those hits and runs came on leadoff solo homers: one by right-hander Nolan Arenado (who seems to be immune from the Coors Effect), and one by a left-hander, Ryan Schimpf.

To our great surprise and delight, we had actually managed to take a 3-0 lead in the first inning. We began the game with FOUR consecutive doubles off of Los Altos ace Chris Sale. We then tacked on two more runs in the third. For a brief moment, we thought that if Gray could keep those bats in check, we might have a shot at stealing a victory in this series. Instead, by the time that disastrous third inning ended, we were looking at a 5-5 tied game.

Just when it seemed that our bullpen would hold that tie long enough for our offense to come through for us, we handed the ball to Rubby de la Rosa to face the top of the lineup in the sixth inning. Rubby had been rock-solid throughout the regular season. Right-handed batters slugged only .229 against Rubby this season -- the lowest rate of any pitcher on our staff. In 188 at-bats against righties, he surrendered only three home runs. Yet, the second batter he faced, Arenado, went deep for the second time in the game. Four batters later, another right-hander, Sean Rodriguez, also went yard. In two innings, de la Rosa managed to allow nearly as many home runs to right-handed batters as he allowed all season.

To their credit, our offense refused to go down without a fight. We rallied for two runs in the seventh inning thanks to a walk and three singles. Miguel Cabrera, our $13 million all-star, then stepped to the plate with two outs and the tying run on third and...popped out to left. Yet another disappointment provided by our incredibly disappointing first baseman.

Another scoring opportunity went to waste in the eighth when Gary Sanchez popped up to the catcher with no outs and a runner at first, and Jose Altuve followed with a ground-out against a pitcher (Ryan Buchter) he should have matched up well against.

Kenley Jansen then came into the game to protect a one-run lead in the ninth and did what he would do throughout the entire series: three-up, three-down.


Game Two


Maintaining our strategy of keeping Los Altos' right-handed bats off the bench as much as possible, we gave the ball to another right-hander, Junior Guerra, in Game Two. Although he was a huge disappointment throughout the season, Guerra was masterful. In six innings, he allowed only one run on three hits and no walks.

With the game tied at 1-1 in the seventh, Guerra was scheduled to lead off the inning. Although he was pitching very well, I could not start the inning with a guaranteed out, so I called on Kyle Seager to pinch hit. That decision proved to be a productive one, as Seager reached on a base hit, advanced to second on a passed ball, and scored on a double by Andrew Benintendi.

As always, our celebration was short-lived. And once again, our celebration ended thanks to yet another Los Altos home run. With two outs, Undertakers manager Jeff Paulson called on pinch hitter David Freese to face lefty Daniel Norris. With two left-handers coming up behind Freese, I opted to let Norris pitch to him. I figured the only bad outcome would be a home run, and of course that's exactly what happened.

With the game now tied at 2-2, Alex Dickerson came through with a clutch leadoff triple. The next two batters grounded out to a drawn-in infield. For a moment it looked as though that triple would be yet another wasted opportunity. Instead, Trea Turner came through big-time with a huge two-run blast off of Adam Ottavino.

We now needed to somehow protect a two-run lead against the mighty Los Altos offense. I gave the ball first to ol' reliable, David Phelps -- perhaps our best reliever throughout the regular season. He didn't disappoint, retiring the side in order in the eighth. I let him stay in the game in the ninth to face a pair of power-hitting righties, Arenado and Nelson Cruz. Arenado led off the inning with a single, and Cruz struck out. I then brought in lefty Sammy Solis to face Anthony Rizzo and Justin Turner, and he retired both with ease, securing our first win of the series.


Game Three


With the series heading to our home ballpark in Salem, we could now give the ball to, arguably, our best starting pitcher, Matz. Matz's overall numbers in 2017 were dragged down by a handful of really bad starts. When he was on, no one on our pitching staff was better. Unfortunately for us, Matz chose Game Three of the OL Division Series to be off.

Out of our entire starting rotation, Matz owned the lowest opponent's slugging percentage at just .363. Against right-handed batters, it was just .386. He allowed 15 home runs in 145 innings -- less than one per nine. Then he faced the Undertakers in the OLDS and this happened:

Cruz: two-run homer in the first inning
Rizzo: leadoff blast in the second inning
Cruz: another solo homer in the third inning
Choo: solo homer in the fourth
Choo: two-run homer in the sixth

Three of those home runs were hit by left-handed batters...in a ballpark that suppresses left-handed home runs by six percent.

We trailed by a score of 5-1 heading into the fifth inning. We then played longball ourselves. A two-run blast by Jose Ramirez and a pinch hit solo shot by Jayson Werth made it a one-run game. The following inning, Jose Altuve stepped up and added a three-run homer. Three batters later, even Miguel Cabrera got into the act with an RBI single. By the time the smoke cleared, we were looking at an 8-7 lead with only three innings left to play.

Once again, we handed the ball to Rubby de la Rosa. Once again, he put us in a hole. A walk, a double, and an RBI groundout handed the lead back to Los Altos. With runners at second and third, it was tempting to bring the infield in to try to cut off that tying run. But with no outs and the heart of the Los Altos lineup due to hit, it would have opened the door to a big inning. Instead, we let the tying run score so that we could record an out.

I then brought Solis in to face the lefty Cory Seager. He grounded out for out number two. For a moment, it felt like we could escape from this jam with the tied game intact. Then Arenado stepped up and -- yet again -- came through in the clutch. His RBI single gave Los Altos the lead.

We wasted yet another opportunity in the seventh inning. After Odubel Herrera began the inning with a hit-by-pitch, Elvis Andrus (a Vg bunter) tried to bunt him over into scoring position. Instead, the play went to second, and they cut down Herrera. Determined to get that runner over no matter what, I then called for Andrus to steal second. Thankfully, he was successful. We now had a runner in scoring position with one out.

Cameron Maybin followed with a ground-out, and Jose Altuve thought this was such a great idea, he grounded out as well. Opportunity missed. It would be the last opportunity we would get, as Los Altos then turned the ball over to their two most suffocating closers, Dellin Betances and Kenley Jansen. Yet another one-run loss was recorded in the books.


Game Four


I had originally planned to start Mike Montgomery in Game Four, but thanks to Gray's unexpectedly short outing in Game One, he was available instead. Thinking that perhaps if the series went to seven games, and knowing that Guerra would have to be limited to three innings because of our ridiculous usage rules, I figured maybe Gray could pitch at least a couple of innings if needed, on the outside chance there would be a Game Seven.

Gray's outing in Game Four was what I had expected from him in Game One: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 8 K. We then handed the game over to our bullpen, which was equally masterful: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K. The only two runs scored by Los Altos were -- you guessed it -- home runs. A pair of relatively harmless solo shots by -- you guessed it -- Nolan Arenado -- would be the only scoring of the day for the mighty Undertakers.

Unfortunately, those two runs would be enough to win this one.

What turned out to be the game-winning solo home run by Arenado was hit off of Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias' stats against right-handers this season: .180/.257/.251, with 3 HR in 183 AB.

Meanwhile, our entire offensive game came down to one painfully missed opportunity. With the bases loaded in the first inning, Miguel Cabrera stepped to the plate with two outs to face Sale. He whiffed.

Our only run came in the eighth inning when we strung together a single, a double, and a sac fly. But once again, we missed a golden opportunity to score the tying run of the game when Gary Sanchez popped out for out number two, and Herrera left the tying run stranded in scoring position with his inning-ending pop fly.

That set the stage for Jansen, who recorded yet another three-up, three-down inning.


Game Five


With our backs against the wall, a single win away from elimination, we turned to Mike Montgomery to allow us to fight another day. He did just that, holding Los Altos to just three runs (two earned) in six-plus innings.

Our offense, meanwhile, managed to chip away at Los Altos starter Aaron Sanchez with singles, walks, and sac flies. By the end of five innings, we had built a 5-2 lead. Los Altos tacked on another run in the sixth inning to make it a 5-3 game. In the eighth, we pecked and chipped and scratched and clawed for two more runs, making it a 7-3 game.

We handed the game over to our bullpen with two outs in the seventh. In the ninth, Daniel Norris surrendered a leadoff triple to a lefty, Cory Seager. We let him score on a ground ball to short, exchanging that run for a crucial out instead. David Phelps then managed to get the dangerous Nelson Cruz to tap one back to the mound. Instead of recording the easy out number two, however, Phelps decided to throw the ball down the right field line, allowing Cruz to advance to second.

Lefty Sammy Solis was called on to face a pair of lefties. After striking out Ryan Schimpf for that crucial second out, Stephen Vogt somehow cranked a double to score yet another run. Solis held lefties to a .232 average this season, and Vogt his just .227 against southpaws. Go figure.

With our lead slipping through our fingers, and the ever-dangerous Arenado stepping to the dish, I asked Nate Jones to do the impossible and record that third and final out. Instead, he hit Arenado with a pitch. Then, for good measure, he uncorked a wild pitch to put two runners -- including the tying run of the game -- in scoring position.

With Anthony Rizzo at the plate, and the tying run standing one bloop single away, I decided not to roll that particular pair of dice. I intentionally walked Rizzo to load the bases. With a heavy sigh of relief, Sean Rodriguez then grounded out to end the game.


Game Six


If Junior Guerra had thrown just 3.1 more innings in MLB 2016, his postseason usage in this series wouldn't have been an issue. Instead, he was limited to 9 2/3 innings thanks to our arbitrary rules. Of course, I was fully aware of that when I allowed him to throw six innings in Game Two, and thus fully-prepared to turn Game Six into a "bullpenning" experiment if it came to that.

We jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning thanks to another clutch home run by Jose Ramirez. Guerra was as good as we have seen all season, tossing three shutout innings to start the game. But with only two outs remaining in his usage, and with his spot in the batting lineup coming in the top of the fourth with two outs, I reluctantly decided to cut Guerra's usage even further and pinch hit Cameron Maybin. Naturally, he struck out.

Forced to turn the game over to our bullpen, I began with Daniel Norris -- who was also limited in usage himself. In keeping with the theme of this entire series, he coughed up a home run to the very first batter he faced, Sean Rodriguez. Thankfully, however, he settled down from there and retired ten of the next eleven batters he faced.

Meanwhile, our offense exploded in the top of the fifth inning. A walk, an error, three straight singles, and a three-run double by Alex Dickerson plated five runs, giving us a commanding 6-1 lead. After Norris struck out the side in order (giving him five strikeouts in a row) in the sixth, we turned the game over to Ryan O'Rourke, Sammy Solis, David Phelps, and Nate Jones, who got the job done. We walked away with an easy 7-1 win, putting us one win away from the OL Championship Series. All that stood in our way was Steven Matz.


Game Seven

We never thought it would come to this, but if you had told me prior to the start of the series that we'd be heading to Game Seven with a fully-rested Steven Matz as our starting pitcher, I would have felt pretty good about that situation. After his shellacking in Game Three, however, it hardly inspired confidence to see him take the hill -- especially on the road in Los Altos' righty-friendly home run haven.

It didn't take long for this game the fate of this game to reveal itself. The ever-dangerous Arenado stepped to the plate in the bottom of the first with two outs and runners on the corners. To my great relief, he hit a routine ground ball to first. Then, I watched with horror as the ball trickled through the legs of our $13 million first baseman, Cabrera, allowing a crucial -- and ultimately game-deciding -- run to score.

Incredibly, we managed to take the lead the following inning when Trea Turner -- using up one of his final at-bats of the series -- went yard off of Chris Sale to give us a 2-1 lead. But, in keeping with the theme of this series, lefty Anthony Rizzo then greeted lefty Matz in the bottom half of that inning with a game-tying home run. Heaven forbid we enjoy our lead for more than a moment.

Matz wasn't done serving up gopher-balls. After coughing up FIVE of them in Game Three, and another to Rizzo in Game Six, he allowed another (to Sandy Leon) in the third inning, and then yet ANOTHER (to Nelson Cruz) in the fifth. In total, Matz somehow managed to allow EIGHT home runs in twelve innings in the OLDS. That might be forgivable if he wree throwing batting practice, but he was actually TRYING to get batters out. In retrospect, Stephen "Whiplash" Strasburg couldn't have performed worse than Matz.

The Undertakers scored five runs in Game Seven. Three were scored by the longball. One was scored on Cabrera's clutch imitation of Bill Buckner. The other scored in the sixth inning when Matz crumbled under pressure by allowing a single and a walk to load the bases with two outs. Cory Seager then pinch hit for Sale. Cory Seager can't hit left-handers if his life depended on it. Cory Seager blooped a dying quail over the outstretched gloves of our infield to plate what became the deciding run of the OLCS.

Meanwhile, our offense busied itself by doing what they do best: wasting opportunities.

As if Cabrera hadn't proven his uselessness enough in this game, he grounded into an inning-ending, rally-killing double play to end the fourth inning. In the sixth, we managed to load the bases with no outs and the heart of our lineup coming to bat. Elvis Andrus grounded into a double play (scoring a run), and Trea Turner followed by using his final at-bat of the series to strike out.

We managed to push across a run in the eighth inning on a double and a (very) clutch RBI single by Dickerson -- off of Kenley Jansen, no less! But Jansen then recorded four easy outs in a row to end the game, the series, and our season.

Final Thoughts


If Miguel Cabrera were capable of fielding a ground ball hit straight toward him, taking a few steps to his left, and stepping on first base...

If Cabrera had come through with a base hit with two outs and a runner on third in Game One OR Game Four...

If Steven Matz had allowed "ONLY" seven home runs in his twelve innings instead of eight...

If only ONE of the SIXTEEN home runs the Undertakers hit had been held up by the wind, or died at the warning track, or were snatched over the fence with a leaping grab...

If Jon Gray's Game One performance were anything remotely like his Game Four effort...

If Trea Turner had just one more hit left in him...

If Cory Seager and Anthony Rizzo posted the same numbers against left-handed pitching that they posted during the regular season...

If any of the above had happened, I would be writing about our strategy for the upcoming OLCS against New Milford. They say baseball is a game of inches, and that anything can happen in the Tournament of Randomness. Nineteen years and fourteen playoff appearances into this league's history, we're still waiting for the year when the Salem Cowtippers will be the recipients of some of these lucky, random, breaks. Maybe next year.

Monday, October 9, 2017

2017: The Season in Review

We began this season with great expectations and a dream of bringing an end to the New Milford Blazers ridiculous streak of division titles. If you had told us at the beginning of the season that we would finish with 99 wins, I would have assumed that would be good enough to win that division title. Instead, we finished 21 games behind. Needless to say, we didn't envision the utter dominance of the Blazers' 120-win season.

We managed to keep it a tight race for at least the first half of the season. We even enjoyed a (very) brief time as leaders of the division. But then something happened to the Blazers in the second half. They kicked it into a higher gear and won 62 games in the second half -- seventeen more than we did. So much for the pennant race.

Among Ozzie League teams, only the Blazers and Infidels scored more runs than we did (846) this season. Our 3.89 team ERA ranked fourth in the OL.

We now look forward to taking on the 113+ game-winning Los Altos Undertakers in the OLDS. Our pitchers will have their work cut out for them, as Los Altos led the entire BDBL in runs scored (903) and home runs (272) this season. Every batter in their lineup is a weapon. They have four aces in the rotation and bullpen filled with an endless array of closers. Should be fun.

The Good:

Avisail Garcia ranks 23rd in offensive WAR in MLB 2017. We had him signed for a cool $2.5 million in 2018. Instead, we shipped him off to Kansas City in exchange for Martin Prado. Only days later, Prado injured himself for the season, leaving us with no option but to pay $2.3 million just to get rid of him at the end of the season. On the plus side, Prado has done nothing but hit the snot out of the ball (.449/.513/.643 in 98 AB) since becoming a Cowtipper. If he single-handedly wins the trophy for us this year, it will all be worth it. If not, what an incredible waste of resources.

Rookie sensations Andrew Benintendi (.337/.388/.467 in 92 AB) and Gary Sanchez (.288/.373/.679) helped to justify our trade of Kris Bryant a year ago. Another rookie, Trea Turner, hit .334/.358/.563 on the season, with 11 triples, 37 extra-base hits, and 63 RBI's in only 323 AB's. Those core three youngsters will be joined by Rafael Devers in 2018, giving us a solid foundation for our franchise's future.

Jose Ramirez (.315/.369/.457, with 66 doubles), Jose Altuve (.308/.354/.456), Elvis Andrus (.308/.354/.456), and Miguel Cabrera (.293/.376/.519) gave us consistent solid performances all year long. Jayson Werth (.297/.391/.658) added another power bat against southpaws. Alex Dickerson (.275/.347/.508) also provided some pop in limited (244 AB) time.

On the pitching side, Ruddy de la Rosa (2.19 ERA in 53+ IP) and David Phelps (2.43 in 85+) provided us with two solid middle-inning arms throughout the year. Matt Shoemaker (15-7, 3.56 ERA in 172 IP) was probably our staff ace -- and he won't be on our 25-man playoffs roster! Steven Matz (15-5, 3.60 in 145 IP) and Jon Gray (10-9, 3.75 in 182+) were solid in the middle of the rotation.

The Bad:

Needless to say, when we traded Aaron Judge for Junior Guerra last winter, we were hoping Guerra would not only provide us with an above-average starter this year, but for years to come. Instead, Guerra posted a mediocre 4.06 ERA and 8-7 record in 130+ innings and was so ineffective in MLB that he will be cut in the winter.

Odubel Herrera hit half as many doubles and home runs for us as he did for the Phillies a year ago, and only one-third as many triples. Granted, we expected his performance to suffer a bit given the differences in ballpark factors between Philadelphia and Salem. Still, we were hoping the drop-off would be a little less drastic.

The Ugly:

Miguel Cabrera hit just .203/.333/.331 against left-handers this year. This is compared to his MLB line of .302/.409/.517. Those numbers aren't even close. I can't even begin to explain that discrepancy.

Kyle Seager hit .307/.394/.538 against right-handers in MLB 2016. For us, he hit .237/.324/.425. He barely hit half as many home runs for us as he did in MLB 2016: 17 vs. 30. His usefulness to us is so razor-thin that he's on the bubble for our 25-man playoffs roster. His greatest asset is his Ex range in the field.

Another player on that bubble, incredibly enough, is the man who was supposed to be our "ace." Our "franchise pitcher", Stephen Strasburg. In what has to be the most bizarre and inexplicable underperformance in recent memory, Stras posted a 5.09 ERA on the season (vs. the 3.60 ERA he posted in MLB 2016.) He allowed nearly a base hit per inning (vs. 7.3 hits per nine in MLB), and coughed up 28 longballs (vs. 15 in MLB.) Nothing about his record makes a lick of sense. He surrendered 17 home runs to left-handers (vs. 9 in MLB), and nearly doubled the number of homers to right-handers (11 vs. 6.) Maybe his player card is faulty. Maybe Diamond Mind just sucks. I have no idea how to explain it.

The third player vying for that 25th roster spot was supposed to be our "closer," Nate Jones. We had pursued Jones in the winter, as he seemed like a terrific, and yet unheralded, candidate for the position. He posted stellar numbers in a very tough MLB ballpark. We figured he would thrive in our pitcher-friendly park. We were wrong. In only 37+ innings, he allowed six home runs. He managed to blow five saves in only sixteen opportunities. Most inexplicably of all, his walk rate nearly doubled (3.6 vs. 1.9) what it was in MLB. Maybe it's time to fire our pitching coach.