Surprise! After all of the thought I put into my last diary entry, I have to start all over again, because Matt Clemm just can't help but wait until the very last possible second before a deadline to play his games.
AAAAAAAAARGH!
Not all of that work went to waste. Everything else I wrote still applies, except for the starting rotation I had set up against Ravenswood. We simply need to figure out who to start in Game Four. Not a big deal.
The Jamboree are a complicated opponent. The record says that they hit right-handers slightly better (.749 OPS) than lefties (.738). But if you look at their lineups, Paul Goldschmidt (1.025) and Jonathan Schoop (1.035) pound lefties to a bloody pulp. Against righties, they have no real full-time threat, although J.D. Davis (.988) is a short-usage weapon.
So, are we better off pitching a righty or lefty against them?
During the regular season, we threw Framber Valdez against Bear Country twice, and he didn't pitch poorly at all. Steven Matz got one start against the Jamboree, and was pounded, but that's only one start. Another lefty, Ranger Suarez, tossed five shutout innings against them.
On the other hand, we let Luis H. Garcia -- a righty-only specialist -- pitch two games against the Jamboree, and he didn't do badly, either.
Let's take a look at their best-possible lineup against lefties:
1. Jonathan Schoop, 2B: 1035/649
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: 1025/855
3. *Jeff McNeill, 3B: 717/705
4. J.D. Martinez, RF: 765/753
5. Tim Anderson, SS: 766/824
6. Yadi Molina, C: 1277/676
7. Derek Hill, CF: 690/1178
8. Phil Gosselin, LF: 677/725
Once you get past the first two batters in the lineup, it's a cake walk. (Molina's numbers are a bit warped, but he's still dangerous.)
Against righties:
1. Myles Straw, CF: 625/803
2. J.D. Davis, 3B: 644/988
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: 1025/855
4. Tim Anderson, SS: 766/824
5. *LaMonte Wade, LF: 209/816
6. J.D. Martinez, RF: 765/753
7. WJ Contreras, C: 539/848
8. #William Difo, 2B: 422/775
This is a much more difficult lineup to navigate. There isn't an easy out. The drastic splits on some of these guys (Straw, Davis, Wade, Contreras, Difo) would make it easy to employ the ol' cover pitcher strategy, but that would be over-thinking it. The best bet, I think, is to start a lefty in Game Four. Call me crazy, but that lefty just may be Framber Valdez.
On the other side of the ball, there isn't much to think about. Matt started his one and only lefty, John Means, against us twice this year. There is no way he would do so in the postseason. We will undoubtedly see Frankie Montas, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb, and Luis Castillo -- and probably in that order. If I see Means on his OLDS roster, however, that changes everything.
In the Bear Country bullpen, their two main lefties are Aroldis Chapman and Alex Vesia. I'm more afraid of Craig Kimbrel than either of them. This other person named Kyle McGowan (no idea who he is) has dominated with a 1.09 ERA this year, but is limited to just two innings. I would be very surprised if he's on the roster.
A few more random observations worth noting:
- Vesia, Chapman, Cease, and Melancon all give up tons of walks. When pinch hitting against any of these guys, it might pay to use a high-OBP guy over a power guy.
- Chapman and Vesia are also extremely homer-prone, so maybe scratch that for those two.
- Straw runs a lot, but also gets caught a lot. Anderson is the one to watch out for on the bases.
- Run all day long on Logan Webb.
- Do NOT run on Straw. 15 assists? Seriously?
No comments:
Post a Comment