2019 Playoffs Diary: Scouting Joplin

It is almost a pointless waste of time to scout the Joplin Miners because their manager, Jim Doyle, is so unhinged and unpredictable, you never have any idea what you might face in any given series. He might throw a "cover pitcher" every game. He may decide to play the infield in the entire series. He may hit-and-run with two outs and a runner on second. He may start his closer and close his starter. Literally anything is possible.

We went 11-5 against the Miners this season, which seems like a pretty decisive record of success. We outscored them 66-53 in those sixteen games, which averages to a margin of less than one run per game. Not so decisive after all.

The Miners hit slightly better (.761 OPS) against lefties than they did against righties (.732), but the difference is negligible. Mookie Betts (1121/1013) beats the crap out of everyone, regardless of which arm they throw with. Carlos Santana (1.015) and Freddie Freeman (.923) pound lefties, and David Peralta (1.064) pounds righties.

Joplin's ballpark famously rewards left-handed doubles (117) and triples (177) hitters, and right-handed singles (110) hitters, and punishes both lefty and righty power hitters (68/78 HR factors.)

Given all of that, who do we throw against them?

All of our pitchers should be well-rested, so that isn't a factor. If we decide to do another "bullpen game" in the LCS, it may be best to get that out of the way first, with a bullpen filled with fresh arms. Unfortunately with Sale locked in to start Game One, it wouldn't benefit us to start Ohtani in a bullpen game. Strasburg had a good deal of success against Joplin this year. Ideally, it would be nice to keep him below 95 pitches in Game One so that we have the option to start him in Game Four.

One thing we know for certain is that we will face Chris Sale in Game One. Given his Av durability rating, we will not see him again until Game Five. That's just fine with us. Both Sale and Joplin's second-best pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, are left-handed, which works in our favor. Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia will have their work cut out for them.

As far as roster decisions go, we don't have many decisions to make. Despite the fact that Jon Gray didn't throw a single pitch in the Division Series, the rationale behind carrying him on the roster stands. Felix Pena and Mike Montgomery would be no more effective against Joplin than they would have been against Akron. Those would be the only two possible replacements for Gray. Offensively, keeping Odubel Herrera or Danny Jansen on this roster makes little sense.

We have two options for our LCS rotation. 

Option One:

Game 1: Strasburg (<90 pitches)
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Strasburg (<90 pitches)
Game 5: Cahill
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Strasburg

Option Two:

Game 1: Strasburg (max)
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Bullpen
Game 5: Strasburg
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Cahill

I will be obsessing over this decision while the Black Sox and Mustangs play the last remaining Division Series.

A few random scouting notes:

• Doyle hates to bunt. The Miners successfully executed just NINE sac bunts all season -- by far the lowest total in the league. Sale and Ryu bunted twice. No one else bunted more than once. We can safely play our corners back in any bunting situation.
• Doyle loves to steal. We already knew this. What I didn't know was who he loves to steal. Peralta attempted only four steals in MLB, but went 17-for-22 in the BDBL. Freddie Freeman attempted 18 steals and succeeded 16 times. Jose Iglesias went 9-for-11. Good to know.
• Carlos Santana is abysmal at third base. He made 20 errors (a .935 fielding percentage) on the season and has Pr range. We need to make sure the ball comes to him as much as possible. Take an extra base. Steal third. Bunt. Whatever it takes.
• As expected, Yan Gomes controls the running game very well. Sale (7 SB in 8 attempts), however, does not.
• Joplin's primary closer, Craig Kimbrel, has a big problem issuing walks. We may want to save Ohtani for the ninth inning, just to face Kimbrel. Then again, if we can somehow maneuver Ohtani in to face John Brebbia (1.025 OPS vs. LH this year), that would be even better.
• It might be worth the gamble to start Ohtani against Charlie Morton. Otherwise, the defensive trade-off isn't worth it.
• Gio Gonzalez made the postseason roster for some reason. He was even worse against lefties (.284/.385/.418) than righties (.280/.359/.478) this year. Benintendi (.776 OPS vs. LH), Ohtani (.748), and Nimmo (.741) all held their own against southpaws this year. Maybe one of them would get a shot off the bench if Gonzalez comes into the game. Or maybe it doesn't matter.
• Tanaka was beat up by right-handed power hitters this year. It probably makes sense to go with an outfield of Andrew Benintendi, Ramon Laureano, and Kike Hernandez against him. Hell, the way Benintendi has been hitting, maybe Hunter Renfroe should get a shot instead. Couldn't hurt.