I obsessed over the decision to pitch Stephen Strasburg on short rest or let him pitch on full rest and add a "bullpen game" to the rotation. As it turned out, Strasburg went later in the game than expected, and maintained a low enough pitch count to enable us to start him in Game Four. (So did Anibal Sanchez, for that matter.)
I noted that Doyle loves to steal, especially with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. So I employed a ton of pickoff plays and pitch-outs throughout the series. We managed to pick off Freeman...and he scampered into second base anyway on an errant throw. We pitched out during one of Betts' steals...and he stole the base anyway.
I couldn't help but notice Carlos Santana's abysmal defense at third base, and planned to capitalize on it as much as possible. I must have attempted to bunt Trea Turner a dozen times throughout the series, and our "Vg" bunter failed to get a single bunt down in fair territory. I also attempted to steal third, hoping Santana would muff the throw and we'd get a cheap run. But no, he handled that one with ease.
On the other hand, my advanced scouting (which I didn't even report here in my diary) revealed that Doyle once stole home plate on the back end of a double-steal with a runner at first and Betts at third. When Joplin attempted this same play at some point in our series, I recognized it immediately and opted not to throw through. Maybe that saved a run -- or even the game.
The thing is, in a short series, one small decision like that can make all the difference in the world. And so we press on and scout the Charlotte Mustangs as though it will make a difference in the end.
Many years ago, when the BDBL was in its infancy, I sparked a debate by suggesting that at this point in the season, BDBL stats matter more when it comes to scouting than MLB stats. My reasoning was that BDBL stats reflect the usage patterns and ballpark factors applicable to the BDBL, making MLB stats less relevant. I still maintain that opinion today. However, looking at the Mustangs' stats this year, I can't help but take MLB performance into consideration as well, given the wide disparity between MLB and BDBL performance throughout the Charlotte roster.
For example, is Anthony Rizzo an offensive threat or not? You'd think so, given his .295/.396/.506 batting line against righties in MLB. But his BDBL numbers (.275/.359/.452) appear far more manageable. The Charlotte lineup as a whole hit much better against right-handers (.818 OPS) than lefties (.748) this season. But if you look at their MLB splits, the difference (.759 vs. .770) is negligible.
One thing is for certain: that threesome in the middle of the lineup (Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, and Juan Soto) is the stuff of nightmares. Seriously. How did this team win only 90 games with those three monsters batting in the lineup? That doesn't even count Jose Altuve, Corey Dickerson, or Mitch "Ryan" Haniger. The lineup is so deep, Adrian Beltre and Anthony Rizzo are practically afterthoughts!
There is nothing we can do about Yelich, Bregman, or Altuve. Those guys are just going to mash the ball no matter what we do. There is no such thing as a "counter attack." We just have to shut our eyes and hit the one key. Soto is different. We can use our left-handers to neutralize him. The rest, as they say, are in the hands of the Random Dice Roll Gods. If the OLCS proved anything, it's to never take the bottom of any lineup for granted.
Our pitchers have their work cut out for them, regardless of how we use them. Which means we're likely to see some early-game blow-outs. Which means our bullpen will be heavily-taxed. I'm tempted to carry a 13th pitcher just to account for that inevitability. All five of Charlotte's starting pitchers are right-handed, so Villanueva and Valencia won't see much playing time. In fact, Jose Alvarado and Xavier Cedeno are the only two left-handers on the entire staff.
Soto (.682 OPS) and Rizzo (.605) are completely neutered by left-handed pitching. It seems that it would benefit us to sit either of the V-brothers and carry an additional left-hander (either Mike Montgomery or Steven Matz) instead. Although Villanueva is the obvious choice offensively, Valencia gives us some defensive flexibility.
Charlotte's home park favors left-handed singles and doubles hitters, and right-handed power hitters. Other than Felix Pena and Jon Gray (who won't be used as starters under any condition), Clay Buchholz (.332) and Montgomery (.391) were the only two starting pitchers in our rotation that held right-handers to a sub-.400 slugging percentage. Anibal Sanchez (.423 slugging, 13 HR in 336 AB) was particularly disastrous. It makes sense, then, to start Sanchez is Games Two and Six -- both at home. Keep him away from Charlotte Downs. It also makes sense to start Buchholz in Charlotte. So our rotation works out like this:
Game 1: Strasburg (to 90 pitches)
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Strasburg (90 pitches)
Game 5: Cahill
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Strasburg
In other words, it's identical to our OLCS game plan. Thank god we won that series in six games, or our rotation would be completely screwed.
Looking at the Charlotte rotation, it seems like they have Kyle Hendricks...and then pray for rain. Hendricks has a Vg durability rating, but manager Tony Chamra didn't seem to employ him in a way that would lead me to believe Hendricks will be used on short rest at any point in this series (unless he's pulled early for reasons unrelated to usage.)
Hendricks' Achilles Heel this year was allowing lots and lots of home runs -- 38, in total. In particular, lefties seemed to pound him. Given that these are likely to be high-scoring games, I think it behooves us to throw Shohei Ohtani into the outfield every chance we get and take the defensive trade-off.
Julio Teheran has the same issue -- only more so. He allowed an average of 1.6 homers per nine this season. Jose "J.O." Berrios had an even WORSE homer issue (1.7 per nine). And Zack Eflin (1.8) was the worst of them all! This could be a very high-scoring series!
As far as the Charlotte bullpen goes, Blake Treinen scares the crap out of me. He performed far worse in the BDBL than expected, and was also susceptible to the long-ball. He allowed nine homers in the BDBL compared to just two in MLB. I am going to just toss his BDBL numbers out the window and treat him as though his MLB numbers are his true level of performance. (Which, I know, totally contradicts what I wrote above.)
Someone named Edgar Santana is used as Charlotte's middle-innings setup guy. Chaz Roe is their righty-specialist. Alvarado was supposed to be their lefty specialist, but lefties pounded him to the tune of .329/.453/.386. So, again, do we go by the MLB or BDBL numbers? Cedeno is left-handed, but is equally effective against both sides of the plate. Corey Knebel is a mopup man, and Tony Barnette is their short-usage superstar with a severe usage limit.
Charlotte's pitching doesn't scare me at all...which means they are guaranteed to shut down our offense. I've seen it happen, time and time again, throughout this season and seemingly every season. For some reason, the Cowtippers perform well against good pitching and shitty against shitty pitching. This is pretty much the only guarantee for this coming series.
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