This is how the process works, folks. I spend a good deal of time formulating a strategy based on considerable thought, logic, reason, and common sense. Then, a day or two later I toss it all out the window and do the opposite. Welcome to November baseball.
I have tossed around so many different ideas when it comes to my OLDS starting rotation that I've scratched out an entire sheet of paper, both sides, with potential ideas. I had sound reasons for each and every idea, mind you, but after playing a few exhibition games, I've come to realize that my latest strategy may easily backfire.
First, the decision to start Strasburg for three games on three days rest seemed reasonable on the surface. I have gone with a three-man rotation in the postseason before, with both positive and negative results. Stras could handle pitching on three days rest...BUT I would have to limit him to around 85 pitches per start. After playing a few exhibition games against the Akron squad, I've realized that 85 pitches only equates to around six innings -- at best.
In the last exhibition I played, I pulled Stras after six innings, with a 6-0 lead, and proceeded to watch Akron tie the game the very next inning. I realize that I shouldn't make rash decisions based on one fluke inning in one meaningless exhibition game, but that one shook me to the core. I wouldn't be able to live with myself if that actually happens in a game that counts.
So, I have decided (for now) that Stras will only pitch twice in the series, on full rest. Which brings me to my next change of heart. I originally had Strasburg written in ink to start Game One of the series. However, it really doesn't matter if he pitches Game One or Two, given that Mike Clevinger and Trevor Williams are both equally-matched opponents. If I were to start Strasburg on Game Two, then he wouldn't start again until Game Six -- both home games. Given Strasburg's penchant for allowing home runs, and given Akron's very generous home run ballpark factors, I think it's best to avoid pitching Strasburg in Akron altogether.
I have also had a change of heart about that "bullpen" game. I've tried to manage that game in several exhibition contests, and it just doesn't seem to work well with our personnel. We blow through too many pitchers, too quickly, and it leaves us vulnerable in the late innings. This strategy also heavily depends on having a fully-rested bullpen -- which is very unlikely to happen.
As of this moment, our OLDS rotation looks something like this:
Game 1: Sanchez
Game 2: Strasburg
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Cahill or Bullpen (depending on many factors)
Game 5: Sanchez
Game 6: Strasburg
Game 7: Cahill or Bullpen
Cahill is limited to 8.2 innings in usage for the series, so he can only pitch one of those two games. We will likely be forced into a bullpen game if this series goes seven games. I originally planned to make Felix Pena the 25th man on our roster, but now I'm leaning toward Jon Gray -- just in case. He would give us another option for Game 7 if necessary. But let's hope it doesn't get to that point.
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