We went 6-6 against Akron during the regular season. Aside from one blowout 12-1 win, most of those games were close. In fact, seven out of the twelve games were decided by just one run. Needless to say, our teams are evenly-matched.
Any time you face an opponent that is so evenly-matched, it places a greater emphasis on advanced scouting. Any advantage that can be found must be exploited. Each game could very well be decided by one decision.
My first question as I scan the Akron roster is: who will D.J. Shepard pitch against us? Mike Clevinger and Trevor Williams are the only two guaranteed starters, and will likely start the first two games, in either order. Clevinger started a game in all three series, and absolutely dominated. He allowed only 3 runs on 8 hits in 20+ innings. It is tempting to start Shohei Ohtani in right field against him, just to have one more left-handed bat in the lineup. The only other option would be to give Ramon Laureano a start, but Clevinger dominated right-handed batters (.219/.264/.380) this season.
Williams started twice against us this season and held us in check both times. His split stats are more consistent than Clevinger's, so adding another left-handed bat wouldn't help much. The first two games in this series are all but guaranteed to be low-scoring affairs for us. Whatever advantage we get from having the home field will be negated by those two pitchers.
Clevinger could possibly pitch on short rest, given his Vg endurance rating, but Williams is thankfully rated only Av. My guess is that Clevinger starts Games One, Four, and Seven, and Williams starts Games Two and Six. Who starts Games Three and Five? Your guess is as good as mine. Jose Quintana (16-8, 3.87 ERA in 32 starts) and Robbie Ray (6-5, 4.87 ERA in 24 starts) racked up the next two highest start totals during the regular season, but D.J. seems reluctant to throw left-handers against us. Of the twelve games we played this season, a lefty started only three of them.
Marcus Stroman started twice against us, but didn't pitch particularly well. There is such a disconnect between his MLB and BDBL numbers that I don't know what to make of him. Garrett Richards (3-4, 3.78) started one game against us, but he is eligible to throw only six innings in the Division Series. If I had to guess, I would say the pitching matchups for this series will be:
Game 1: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
Game 2: Sanchez vs. Williams
Game 3: Buchholz vs. Quintana
Game 4: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
Game 5: Bullpen vs. Richards
Game 6: Sanchez vs. Williams
Game 7: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
I could be completely wrong about that. Time will tell.
Akron's bullpen is filled with left-handers, which works to our advantage. Two of those lefties, Jose Castillo and Josh Hader, are very homer-prone, which also works to our advantage. If we can keep the score close heading into the late innings, we should be in good shape.
Offensively, we will have to deal with one of the most potent lineups in the league. Akron's ballpark is heavily-tilted toward power hitters from both sides of the plate. We're starting Buchholz in Akron for that reason, as he was the best starter on our team for preventing home runs. For that reason, Strasburg will likely struggle.
Jedd Gyorko (1.130 OPS vs. LH), David Dahl (1.075), Ronald Acuna (1.031), and Yairo Munoz (1.030) all pummeled left-handers all season, so we'll have to do our best to avoid using Oliver Perez and Taylor Rogers against them. Against righties, newcomer Scooter Gennett (.975), Acuna (.972), Kolten Wong (.942), Jesse Winker (.941), and Starling Marte (.931) are all pains in the ass.
Strategically, D.J. is pretty much a "1-1" type of manager. He doesn't run a lot, doesn't bunt a lot, and led the league with the fewest number of intentional walks. This is neither an advantage or disadvantage. He does control the running game well, and Akron's main catcher, Wilson Ramos, keeps base stealing to a minimum with his Vg arm. This diminishes one of our big weapons, but won't entirely erase it.
At first glance, there don't appear to be many areas for exploitation for this series. We'll just have to pound the "1" key and hope the Gods of Random Dice Rolls are kind to us.
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