Draft Diary: Farm Draft

December 22:

As was true last year, I am not jazzed about ANY of the players available for this year's farm draft. Expanded farm rosters has, predictably, dried up all of the talent. Teams are filling their farms with players who won't see any level of American professional baseball for years to come. Of the top 30 players ranked in the upcoming 2024 MLB draft, only two or three are available. Among the 2025 draft pool, nearly every top prospect is already taken. Of the international prospects, all of the top names are long gone. The farm draft is always like buying a lottery ticket, but the past two years have been an exercise in futility.

Last year, I had to make twelve picks in the farm draft. This year, thankfully, I only need to make four. Last year, with the 22nd pick in the draft, I somehow managed to find seven useful players: Fernando Cruz, Brayden Taylor, Aiden Miller, Luis Morales, Ryan Noda, Michael Sirota, and Travis Sykora. If I can replicate that 58% success rate this year, I'll be happy.

This year's draft pool is heavier on the pitching side. With the 14th pick in the draft, I doubt that my top hitting prospects will still be available. As it stands, these are my top-ranked players. Of course, this ranking will undoubtedly change several times before my pick comes up.

1. Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
2. Paulino Santana, OF, Dominican Republic
3. Henry Lalane, P, NYY
4. Josh Hartle, P, Wake Forest
5. Victor Scott, OF, St. Louis
6. Dillon Head, OF, San Diego
7. Shota Imanaga, P, Japan
8. Andrew Walters, P, Cleveland
9. Yariel Rodriguez, P, Cuba/Japan
10. Slade Caldwell, OF, Arkansas HS
11. Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana U.
12. Seth Hernandez, P, California HS
13. Nolan Schubart, OF, Oklahoma U.
14. Jakob Marsee, OF, San Diego

King and Hartle are the last two remaining MLB '24 draft prospects available who are ranked among the top-20. I highly doubt either will be available at #14. Mike Ranney owns the pick directly ahead of mine at #13. I would bet my house that he takes Santana. Lalane pitches for the Yankees. Tony Badger owns the #2 pick in this draft. There is no way Lalane gets past Badger. Greg Newgard owns the #1 pick in this draft, and he has already told me he is taking Scott.

That leaves a group of very unexciting prospects that could potentially drop to us, beginning with Dillon Head. Head is extremely young and raw, but had a terrific pro debut out of high school last summer and was a first-round draft pick. Imanaga would be a great pickup, but given the publicity surrounding his MLB signing, it's doubtful he will fall that far.

Walters is a relief pitcher. I would hate to use my #1 pick on a reliever, but he's a great one. With both Cleveland and Akron picking behind us, he would probably fall to #14. The Cuban refugee, Rodriguez, pitched in Japan, mostly as a reliever, and sat out the entire 2023 season to escape from his contract. He's young, and has great upside potential, but there is no way of knowing how he would perform in the US.

The rest are high school and college fliers with the exception of Marsee, who had a breakout season last year, culminating in a terrific AFL performance. If all thirteen players I have ranked ahead of him are chosen, I would not be sad to be stuck with Marsee.

December 28:

Day one of the draft and our #1 is already off the board. No surprise there. Greg Newgard did tell me he would be picking a different guy at #1 (which he acquired in trade from Highland), but he decided to go in a different direction, gambling that his guy will still be there at #3. Since his guy isn't Henry Lalane, and since Tony Badger has the next pick, it's a pretty safe gamble.

Since my first diary entry I've discovered that Shota Imanaga is already taken. So that whittles my top-14 list to twelve. I have also decided to move Marsee up the ranking. The more I read about him, the more I like him. I would probably rather have Marsee than Head, so Marsee now becomes my fifth choice.

I suspect the draft will now stall until January 2nd, so I have plenty more time to waffle.

January 1:

The first round of the draft went pretty much as I suspected with one exception. Tony Badger NOT picking Henry Lalane was such a shock, I'm beginning to wonder if I'm living in a dream world. The fact that he took a 15-year-old instead doubles the shock value. I never would have bet on that happening.

Even more shocking was that Lalane fell to us at #14. I did not see that coming, especially with Johnny Bo picking just ahead of us. I'm very happy to have Lalane, although adding yet another left-handed pitcher to our roster is not something I wanted to do.

The problem (if you can call it that) is that too many prospects remain on the board that I would like to draft. There are 15 more picks until our next one, so I assume many of them will drop off the board by then. As it stands, I can't decide who my next pick should be. Josh Hartle is the next best pitcher on the board, but he, too, is left-handed. Victor Scott is shockingly still around, but I assume he'll be snatched up by Greg Newgard in Round Two. (He told me Scott was his #1 before the draft began.)

Jakob Marsee is still hanging around, and would be a great addition to our roster. Devin Taylor is probably the next-best college player available. Shunpeita Yamashita would be fun to add, although waiting until the 2030 BDBL season for him to arrive would be painful. Christ, I'll be 60 years old by then. Crazy.

January 2:

Round Two completely decimated my list more so than Round One. Yamashita, Hartle, Scott, and Marsee all vanished before the round came to my pick at #14. The only prospects left over were 2025 draft prospects, a relief pitcher, and Spencer Arrighetti. The draft prospects have the highest upside, but carry the highest risk. The reliever is a crapshoot. Arrighetti has a chance to pitch a good number of MLB innings this year, which would make him an addition to our 2025 rotation. Ultimately, that's what I chose to do.

Two more picks remaining for us, and there isn't a hell of a lot left to pick from.

January 4:

If you had told me before this draft that I would use all four picks on pitchers, I would have called you a lying, dog-faced pony soldier. Yet, here we are. My third pick went to Seth Hernandez, who is considered to be the best pitching prospect in the 2025 MLB draft class. Drafting high school pitchers is always something I try to avoid, but his scouting reports are convincing.

For my last pick, I was waffling between another 2025 prospect, Devin Taylor, and reliever Andrew Walters. John Gill made that decision for me by picking Taylor four picks ahead of me. Walters was the best closer in college baseball for the past two years. His college numbers -- especially his strikeout numbers -- are insane. Cleveland snatched him up in the second round, but he has yet to throw a professional pitch. I'm hoping he zips up the ladder as quickly as Orion Kerkering did last year.

And that's it. We're done. Until July. Then we get to do this all over again.

2024 Florida Farm Report

The Mulligans farm club hasn't ranked among the top ten in our annual BDBL Farm Report since 2021. The last time we ranked #1 was WAAAAY back in 2003. I believe this is the year we finally re-take that number one spot. The annual prospect rankings haven't been published yet, but as of mid-2023 we owned two top-ten prospects in Baseball America's ranking: Ethan Salas at #6 and Wyatt Langford at #8. Three others (Brooks Lee at #24, Ricky Tiedemann at #33, and Chase Dollander at #40) rank among the top-40.

The last time we owned two top-10 prospects was 2010, when Stephen Strasburg (#1) and Pedro Alvarez (#6) were our top two prospects. One of those two may be heading to the BDBL Hall of Fame. Say, what ever happened to Pedro Alvarez?

Florida's Top Ten Prospects

1. Wyatt Langford, of
Born: November 15, 2001 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 225. Acquired: mid-season draft (pick #4), 2022.

Background: Langford was drafted fourth overall in last year's MLB draft following two monster years with the Florida Gators. His bat is his calling card. He has hit for both average and power at every level he has played over the past several years. He has excellent plate discipline and hits the ball hard to all fields.

Stats: As a sophomore, Langford hit a whopping .356/.447/.719 with 26 homers. As if those numbers weren't gaudy enough, he then improved in his junior year, hitting .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers and more walks (56) than strikeouts (44). He raked his way through Single-A (.333/.453/.644), and continued raking through Double-A (.405/.519/.762) before enjoying a brief five-game appearance in Triple-A. In total, Langford hit a total of 31 homers in a little more than 500 PAs last year.

The Future: Wyatt Langford is ready for the big leagues. Everyone knows this. But because of MLB's asinine rules he will probably rot away in the bush leagues for most of 2024 just as Adley Rutschman did for so many years. Langford is the type of player we need on our roster immediately. I have zero patience for the unique way that young athletes are treated in baseball as opposed to football and basketball and nearly every other sport on the planet. End rant.

2. Ethan Salas, c
Born: June 1, 2006 (age 17). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: midseason draft (pick #2), 2022.

Background: After signing for a whopping $5.6 million in January of 2023, no one thought Ethan Salas would finish that year playing Double-A ball at the tender age of 17, yet that is exactly what happened. He began the year playing full-season Low-A ball at the age of 16, which is incredible in itself. He was promoted to High-A in early August. Then, on August 20th, he was promoted to Double-A, roughly two months after his 17th birthday.

Stats: Despite facing much older and more experienced competition, Salas tore up the Low-A level, posting an .837 OPS in 220 PAs with 9 homers and 22 extra base hits. He struggled in his brief nine-game High-A appearance, hitting just .200/.243/.229, but was nevertheless promoted. He continued to struggle (.179/.303/.214 in 9 games) at Double-A before he was shut down for the season with a knee problem.

The Future: It seems crazy to think that we'll see Salas on our 2025 roster, but the way the Padres are pushing him, that may actually happen. As opposed to Langford, who is Major League ready right now, I believe Salas could use at least a year or two of seasoning before he hits the big time. Unfortunately, no one from the San Diego front office has asked for my opinion.

3. Brooks Lee, ss

Born: February 14, 2001 (22.) B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: winter farm draft, 2021 (2nd round).

Background: Lee was the 8th overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft following a stellar career with Cal Poly University, where he was coached by his father, Larry. The switch-hitting Lee has well above-average plate discipline, excellent contact skills, and is excellent defensively. He also has above-average "makeup" and "instincts," and has been tagged with that golden label of "gamer."

Stats: Lee posted an .848 OPS in his professional debut at two different levels in 2022. He followed that up with a strong performance (.275/.347/.461 with 16 homers) at the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. He also racked up 39 doubles and 3 triples at those two levels.

The Future: Ideally, the Twins will name Lee as their Opening Day shortstop during spring training next month. He will then become our everyday starting shortstop in 2025, smoothly taking the place of Trea Turner, who will be a free agent after this season. Perfect timing! Unfortunately, things don't tend to work out that way for us. My hunch is that the Twins will let Lee rot away in the minors for a couple of months before finally calling him up.

4. Ricky Tiedemann, p
Born: August 18, 2002 (age 21). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 220. Acquired: trade, winter 2023.

Background: Tiedemann had a breakout year during his first full season of pro ball in 2022. With help from the Toronto Blue Jays coaching staff, he added a few miles per hour to his fastall and developed his secondary pitches into major weapons. He suffered an injury-shortened 2023 season due to a biceps issue, but finished strong, including an impressive stint in the Arizona Fall League in which he was named Pitcher of the Year.

Stats: Pitching at three different levels in 2022, Tiedemann posted an impressive 29/117 BB/K ratio in 78+ innings. In 2023, he increased both his walk (4.7) and strikeout (16.8) rates at four different minor league levels. He then posted a 2.50 ERA and a 8/23 BB/K ratio in 18 AFL innings.

The Future: There is a non-zero chance that Tiedemann will stick with the big club after spring training this year. We could really use some pitching in 2025, so I sincerely hope that happens.

5. Mike Sirota, of
Born: June 16, 2003 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 187. Acquired: winter farm draft (10th round), 2022.

Background: A rising junior at Northeastern, Sirota is currently ranked as the 11th-best prospect in the 2024 MLB draft according to MLB.com. He has hit at every level he has played, including two stints in the summer Cape League. He possesses excellent bat speed and raw power. He is also an excellent center fielder defensively, with Gold Glove potential.

Stats: Sirota hit .326/.411/.511 as a freshman, with only four homers in 164 PAs. He added power as a sophomore last year, hitting .346/.472/.678 with 18 homers. He also walked (44) nearly as often as he struck out (49).

The Future: Sirota is projected to be selected in the early part of the 2024 MLB draft. Baseball America has him ranked at #5 in the class. Like Langford, he could and should move quickly up the ladder once he signs. A future outfield that includes both Langford and Sirota sounds very, very, appealing. 

6. Felnin Celesten, ss
Born: September 15, 2005 (age 17). B-T: B-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 175. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (2nd round), 2020.

Background: Considered to be among the top international prospects on the market last January, Celesten signed for $4.7 million with the Seattle Mariners. He gave an impressive performance in the spring, but then suffered a hamstring strain in June and missed the entire Dominican Summer League. He is a slick shortstop projected to hit for power and average from both sides of the plate. He is also a plus runner.

Stats: He has yet to play a single professional game, so no stats available.

The Future: I made the mistake of trading Wander F'ing Franco because I grew impatient waiting for him to play pro ball and figured he was expendable. I won't be making that mistake again. Whether he goes bust or boom I'm sticking with him. Celesten should finally play full-time baseball in 2024. I can't wait to see what he does.

7. Aidan Miller, 3b
Born: June 9, 2004 (age 19). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 210. Acquired: trade, winter 2023.

Background: The 27th overall pick in the 2023 draft is currently ranked by MLB.com as the 90th-best prospect in baseball. He was expected to be selected much higher, but a broken hamate forced him to miss most of his senior year of high school. He has plus raw power and good hands at third base.

Stats: Miller managed to play just 20 games (80 PAs) in the pros, but impressed in those 20 games. He hit .303/.425/.379 at two different levels, finishing the year at the Low-A Florida State League.

The Future: I have made the comp of Miller to Austin Riley in the past, and I'm sticking with it. They're both right-handed third basemen drafted in the late first round out of high school. They both hit for power and average. They both got off to hot starts in their professional careers. Riley tore up the Rookie level and found himself in the big leagues by age 22. I expect a similar career path for Miller.

8. Brock Wilken, 3b
Born: June 17, 2022 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 225. Acquired: winter draft (1st round), 2022.

Background: Wilken was the 18th overall pick of last summer's MLB draft. He set the Wake Forest record for home runs (31) and walks (69) in his junior year last year. He mashed a whopping 71 homers in his three-year career with Wake Forest. He also crushed the ball in two stints in the Cape Cod League.

Stats: Wilken managed to increase his walk rate and decrease his strikeout rate in his last year of college ball. He carried that newfound plate discipline over to pro ball, posting a 33/47 BB/K rate in 165 PAs at three different levels. Overall, he hit .285/.414/.473 in 203 PAs with only 5 home runs, but 17 extra base hits.

The Future: Wilken finished out the year at Double-A, where he hit two of his five homers, but also struggled a bit with strikeouts (nine in only six games.) I expect he will return to Double-A level to start this year. He could easily be promoted to Triple-A and could possibly get a cup of coffee in September. While he isn't currently ranked among the top-100 by any publication, I expect him to be a top-40 by this time next year.

9. Chase Dollander, p
Born: October 26, 2001 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 200. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2022.

Background: A year ago at this time, Dollander was considered to be the best pitcher in college baseball, a possible #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, and a "generational" pitcher along the lines of Stephen Strasburg. I'm not quite sure what happened, but he didn't pitch like a #1 overall, and someone named Paul Skenes came along to take his titles away. Dollander was still chosen in the first round, ninth overall (with a bonus of $5.72 million!), but the Rockies chose to let him rest all summer and fall rather than push him into professional ball.

Stats: The hype surrounding Dollander coming into 2023 was based on the monster season he had as a sophomore at the University of Tennessee. That year, in 79 innings, he allowed just 50 hits (5.7 per nine), 13 walks (1.5/9), and whiffed 108 batters (12.3/9). Last year, as a junior, he allowed 83 hits (8.4) and 30 walks (3.0) in 89 innings, with 120 (12.1) strikeouts. He also served up a whopping 14 home runs (1.4 per nine).

The Future: Is Chase Dollander the guy we saw in 2022 or the one we saw in 2023? As a big fan of mulligans, I'm willing to give him a mulligan on 2023 and cross my fingers that he will return to the dominant version we saw in 2022. If that guy shows up this year, we could have a future ace in a short amount of time.

10. Henry Lalane, p
Born: May 18, 2004 (age 19). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-7. Wt: 211. Acquired: 2024 winter farm draft, round 1.

Background: The ginormous lefty Lalane was signed in 2021 as an international free agent. Both of his parents were professional athletes who passed their athleticism down to their son. Lalane was named the fourth-best prospect in the Florida Complex League by Baseball America, and was the league's best pitching prospect. He possesses three plus pitches in his arsenal, including a high-90s fastball.

Stats: Lalane posted a sparkling 4/34 BB/K ratio in 21+ innings at the FCL. Those numbers were a great leap forward from the numbers he posted in two Dominican Summer League seasons.

The Future: Lalane has about as much upside as any pitcher in the game. He made a great leap forward last year and I expect him to keep improving in 2024. I was very happy that he dropped to us at #14 in this year's farm draft. I even earned the coveted "damn you" from the Sylvester family for that pick. Nothing beats that.

2024 Winter Trades

We began this winter with so many issues, it seemed that rebuilding in 2024 was our only option. My first order of business was putting our best trading chit, Framber Valdez, on the Selling forum to see what the market looked like.

Mostly, it looked like crickets chirping alone in the dark.

So, I pivoted to "compete" mode. The problem with pivoting is that it required dumping a ton of salary. In order to do so, I'd have to sacrifice the future, and I wasn't willing to sacrifice the best of our prospects to make that happen. Fortunately, I found a way to make it work.

***

Trade #1: Traded Ranger Suarez, Kyle Teel, and Wade Meckler to Philadelphia for Kutter Crawford.

At $10 million in salary and suspect MLB numbers (especially given the huge difference between MLB and BDBL numbers last year), Suarez was the biggest albatross hanging around my neck this winter. In order for me to have any shot of competing in 2024, I simply needed to dump that salary. Unfortunately, it came at a very steep cost. But then, doesn't it always?

Teel was a steal for us in the midseason farm draft last summer. He hit the ground running and posted phenomenal numbers in his pro debut. For better or worse, though, he was expendable due to the presence of Adley Rutschman and Ethan Salas on the Mulligans roster. With the DH, we have room for two catchers, but not three. Sacrificing Teel was an evil necessity, but an easy decision due to that traffic jam behind our plate.

Meckler was a much more difficult decision. I stand by my original assessment when we first signed him last summer: he will have a Wade Boggs-like career. Sacrificing two prospects of such high quality was difficult, but getting Crawford in exchange softens the blow a bit. The former Cowtippers prospect looked good last year, and is still young enough to have some upside.

Trade #2: Traded David Bednar and A.J. Minter to Flagstaff for Ricky Tiedemann and Jarlin Susana.

We won a championship in 2019 thanks in large part to our dominant bullpen. A dominant bullpen carried the Los Altos Undertakers to their fifth championship last month. Darien and Charlotte also enjoyed great success last year thanks to their bullpens. Trust me, I know how important quality bullpens are. Unfortunately, we have a much bigger issue we needed to address this winter, and sacrificing two quality bullpen arms was an absolute necessity.

That issue was simply this: we had no pitching whatsoever beyond the 2024 BDBL season. Shohei Ohtani will not pitch the entire 2024 MLB season and may never pitch again. We lost Jon Gray to free agency, and Framber Valdez is a free agent at the end of this season. We also lost Luis Garcia to an injury that will rob him of his entire 2024 MLB season as well. The only starter remaining on the Mulligans roster was JP Sears, and he remains an enigma.

Starting pitching is incredibly expensive. It is also incredibly difficult to predict which of today's mediocre pitchers will become tomorrow's aces. Two years ago, no one could have predicted that Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, Justin Steele, Zach Eflin, and Pablo Lopez would all be top-ten pitchers. Yet, here we are.

Needless to say, we need to add as many quality arms as possible to our roster, ASAP, and just pray that one or two of them becomes the next Spencer Strider. Tiedemann is as good a bet as any. He missed most of last year with an injury, but was considered a top-ten prospect previously and had a strong showing in the AFL. He could be that future ace we're looking for. The huge and hard-throwing Susana is icing on the cake.

Trade #3: Traded Mark Canha and Ryan Noda to Lake Norman for Marcus Stroman, Daniel Bard, and Josh Royas.

I had Canha penciled in as the everyday center fielder in 2024, and Noda as our platoon against lefties. I wasn't thrilled with either one, though, and Canha's $6.5 million salary was a tough pill to swallow. Trading for the $10 million Stroman meant we were adding a decent 130-IP starting pitcher for a difference in salary of "only" $3.5 million. Add the two penalties from Bard and Rojas and that made him a $4.7 million pitcher.

I took a look at the 2024 free agent market very early on and determined that I wanted no part of it -- at least in terms of filling a starting pitcher slot. There are only a handful of free agent starters available who have 150+ innings, and nearly every one of them will get a Type H salary due to the low supply and high demand. Adding a pitcher of Stroman's quality for under $5 million was a no-brainer.

***

At this point in the game, I had managed to cut $10.2 million in salary. That gave me enough cap space to fill the gaping holes in our roster: one quality reliever, half of a quality starter, a 1B against lefties, a full-time second baseman, and an outfielder against righties.

I could have sat tight at that point. In fact, I thought I was done trading for the winter. However, I was still worried about our starting rotation in 2025 and beyond. Other than Tiedemann, and possibly Sears and Crawford, we had nothing. I did not want to be stuck filling those gaping holes through expensive and aging free agents. I began looking for a way to swap Valdez and/or Stroman for young arms we could use down the road. That's when the Highland Freedom came calling.

***

Trade #4: Traded Framber Valdez, Daniel Bard, and Josh Rojas to Highland for MacKenzie Gore and Casey Mize.

Like Tiedemann, Gore and Mize were considered to be among the top pitching prospects in the game not that long ago. They have come nowhere near fulfilling that potential, but that doesn't mean a thing in the prospect game. They both have the stuff to succeed. They just need to put it all together.

Obviously, losing Valdez leaves an enormous hole in our starting rotation. However, we now have enough money to fill that hole through free agency if we want to do so. At least now it is an option. Unlike Valdez, whoever we sign will be with us for two more years after this one, which solves our 2025+ problem.

Trade #5: Traded Luis Garcia to Flagstaff for Aidan Miller.

I was on the fence about keeping Garcia. He is owed $1.1 million this year, but won't pitch hardly at all. Next year, we'd have to pay him $2.1 million not to pitch. Which means he would only pitch a full season (maybe) in 2026, at a salary of $3.1 million. Granted, he could be an absolute bargain at that point. However, I regretted giving up Miller in the first place, and I'm happy to have him back. It saves us an additional $1.1 million, and it allows us to now trade one of our three third base prospects. Which brings us to...

Trade #6: Traded Marcus Stroman and Brayden Taylor to Virginia for Jesse Chavez.

Although I only paid $4.5 million for Stroman, I realized that freeing his salary was worth more to this franchise than the 130 innings he would pitch for us in 2024. With that, I tried to market him based on his 2024 BDBL value, which should be significant, especially in this shallow pitcher's market. I received no bites, even when I offered to take back unwanted salary to soften the blow of his $10 million salary. So, I switched tactics. Instead of selling Stroman's 2024 BDBL value, I sold Brayden Taylor's future value as a prospect. The addition of Miller made Taylor expendable.

Tony Badger took the offer and added Chavez to our bullpen as well. It's a win-win for both teams. I really like Taylor, and believe he can have many .300/.400/.500 MLB seasons ahead of him. But with Brock Wilken and Miller on our farm, and several shortstops who could likely move to third base, he was a luxury we didn't need. (Of course, I remember saying the same exact thing about Alex Bregman at one point.)

Trade #7: Traded Travis Sykora to Jacksonville for Michael Lorenzen.

After trading Valdez and Stroman, we were about 300 innings shy of having enough innings from starting pitchers to get through this season. Lorenzen brings that number down to 150, which is what we feel will be attainable in this auction/draft.

***

I started out this winter with no direction and no money. Now, I have both. Our direction is very simple. We are looking to compete in 2024. If that fails to happen in the first few chapters, we will bail and look to 2025. I began this winter with a budget of around $5 million for 15 players. I now have over $26 million to spend. That puts the Florida Mulligans in play for arguably the best auction pool we've seen in a decade or more.

2023: Season in Review

Final record: 83-77 (.519)
Record excluding Chapter Two: 62-70 (.470)
Record excluding Chapter Five: 76-56 (.576)
Record excluding both chapters: 55-49 (.529)

So...were we a good team, a bad team, or a mediocre team? Beats the fuck out of me.

Rafael Devers, MLB '22: .295/.358/.521, 42 2B, 27 HR, 739/931
Rafael Devers, BDBL '23: .237/.317/.419, 34 2B, 21 HR, 728/740

Not even close. Not even remotely the same player. On the bell curve, we're talking about four standard deviations to the left. Off the chart.

Shohei Ohtani, MLB '22: .273/.356/.519, 34 HR, 788/921
Shohei Ohtani, BDBL '23: .231/.320/.410, 20 HR, 720/736

Again, not even close. Not the same player. Four standard deviations to the left. Statistically impossible.

Ranger Suarez, MLB '22: 3.65 ERA, 8.6 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 537/756
Ranger Suarez, BDBL '23: 6.44 ERA, 10.9 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 678/1.027

Nowhere near the same player. Not even remotely resembling the same player. Actual MLB statistics completely irrelevant. Game is broken.

Framber Valdez, MLB '22: 2.82 ERA, 7.4 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 505/620
Framber Valdez, BDBL '23: 3.96 ERA, 9.5 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 885/719

Okay, somewhat resembles the actual Framber Valdez if you ignore all the hits and those ridiculous splits. The "Framber Valdez" in the BDBL can't get lefties out to save his life. So, is he actually Framber Valdez? Or is he some bargain-basement Aldi's-brand knock-off? Because I acquired the actual Framber Valdez under the premise that he would actually be THE Framber Valdez.

Statistically speaking, it's mathematically possible that one of these four players could have shit the bed this dramatically. Let's call it a one-in-a-million chance that it could happen. What are the odds that ALL FOUR players could have shit the bed this badly? It's way above one in a billion. I would say it's statistically impossible. Which means this game is broken. Utter bullshit. What a waste of time this entire season was.

On to 2024, so we can repeat this bullshit all over again.

2024: Go For It? Or Rebuild?

The 2023 MLB season has officially come to an end, which means it is now time for us to look forward to the 2024 BDBL season and decide whether we're going to go all-in or rebuild. First, let's do some inventory.

Lineup vs. LH:

C Adley Rutschman: .304/.414/.481
LF Aaron Hicks: .349/.446/.524
RF Lane Thomas: .331/.375/.573
2B Nick Senzel: .347/.389/.619
CF Mark Canha: .264/.361/.464
DH Shohei Ohtani: .245/.358/.532
3B Rafael Devers: .273/.335/.488
1B Ryan Noda: .200/.340/.413
SS Trea Turner: .229/.295/.426

The top half of this lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Noda's numbers against left-handers took a nosedive in September. He was a very strong asset a month ago. Today, he's a borderline cut. Turner got off to an infamously slow start before busting out in the second half. But he, too, fell into the toilet in September, making him mostly useless to us next year.

There are teams in the BDBL right now who are leading their divisions with weaker lineups than this one. Of course, all of this depends on the BDBL numbers resembling these MLB numbers even remotely. As we've seen this year, that doesn't always happen.

Lineup vs. RH:

C Adley Rutschman: .267/.359/.419
DH Shohei Ohtani: .327/.431/.701
3B Rafael Devers: .270/.357/.505
1B Brandon Belt: .256/.375/.515
SS Trea Turner: .282/.331/.472
RF Lane Thomas: .242/.292/.427
CF Mark Canha: .261/.350/.369
LF Andrew Benintendi: .261/.327/.343
2B: TBD

Again, the top half of the lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Benintendi has been a disappointment from day one, and he's only become more and more useless every year. I listed Senzel as a second baseman against lefties, but it is very likely that he won't be rated at that position. If that happens, we have no second baseman against lefties AND righties. We had that same problem this year, and we've all seen the results of that.

Overall, the lineup against lefties and righties needs help.

Starting rotation:

1. Framber Valdez: 198 IP, 166 H, 19 HR, 57 BB, 200 K
2. Shohei Ohtani: 132 IP, 85 H, 18 HR, 55 BB, 167 K
3. Ranger Suarez: 125 IP, 129 H, 13 HR, 48 BB, 119 K
4. JP Sears: 172 IP, 165 H, 34 HR, 53 BB, 161 K
5. Alex Faedo: 65 IP, 48 H, 12 HR, 20 BB, 58 K

Yikes. Framber's numbers are similar to his numbers a year ago, and we've all seen how he has struggled in the BDBL all season. Ohtani should be great, but very limited in usage. Then, our rotation swirls down the toilet. In an ideal world, I would never want to start Suarez or Sears under any circumstance. Sears allowed 34 homers in the cavernous Oakland home park. How many would he allow in our park? 50? 60?

Bullpen:

David Bednar: 67 IP, 53 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 80 K
Ian Hamilton: 58 IP, 45 H, 2 HR, 26 BB, 82 K
AJ Minter: 65 IP, 56 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 82 K
Robert Stephenson: 52 IP, 30 H, 8 HR, 16 BB, 77 K
Dauri Moreta: 58 IP, 39 H, 4 HR, 24 BB, 76 K
Kyle Nelson: 56 IP, 59 H, 12 HR, 14 BB, 67 K

This is a decent bullpen. I would be happy heading into a season with this bullpen. We're about 35 innings short on usage, but that shouldn't be difficult to find.

Next, let's take a look at the money situation. Assuming we don't have any more penalties for over-use (and that is always an issue regardless of how diligent I am), here's where we stand:

22 players, at a total of $56.6 million.

Which leaves: $6.9 million for 13 players.

Again, I say: Yikes. In order to contend in 2024, we would need to fill two gaping holes: a starting pitcher and a second baseman. $6.9 million could not buy ONE of those two players, never mind two. Unless we dump some salary, there is no way we could fill those holes through free agency.

Whose salary would we want to dump? We could start with Ranger Suarez, who will make $10 million for being a part-time, mostly-useless, bum. No one in the league would take his salary unless we parted with a prospect along the lines of Wyatt Langford or Ethan Salas. And that ain't happening.

I would love to dump Benintendi, but he is a franchise player. (I stupidly signed him to a longer contract than Trea Turner.) Turner, in his final year under contract, would be another guy I would like to dump, but he, too, is franchised. Mark Canha ($6.5M) and Brandon Belt ($6.5) are overpaid for what they contribute, but would be tough to trade. Trading them would also create two more gaping holes in our lineup.

Honestly, it's hard to believe the salaries of these players add up to $56.6 million. I just had to double-check that, it's so incredible. But it's true.

Go For It

If we decide to go for it, it will require tremendous sacrifice. Langford and Salas are untouchable. We also can't afford to move Brooks Lee, as this is Turner's final year under contract and Lee is likely to slide right into our shortstop slot next year. That leaves prospects like Brock Wilken, Chase Dollander, Brandon Taylor, and Kyle Teel. We love those guys, but I'm guessing most people in the league don't even know who they are.

Going for it will require too much sacrifice. I'm not willing to trade away the future of this franchise for a longshot -- especially when we've already seen how this game can't be trusted to simulate reality in the first place.

Rebuild

Let's say we decide to rebuild. Who could we move in trade to get pieces for our future? Benintendi, Devers, Ohtani, and Turner are all franchised, so they can't be moved. That leaves Valdez as our number one trading chit, and he would fetch quite a lot in return. David Bednar, Aaron Hicks, AJ Minter, and Nick Senzel could fetch a good amount in trade as well. Ian Hamilton, Dauri Moreta, and Lane Thomas have trade value, but also have some possible future value.

Let's say we traded Valdez, Bednar, Hicks, Minter, and Senzel. Of the five, only Bednar is signed beyond 2024, so we lose nothing going forward. We would free $13.6 million in salary, which we could use to sign free agents with future value. We could snag several players in trade that could combine with Devers, Ohtani, Turner, Rutschman, and possibly Lee, to form a strong 2025 team. Our greatest need would be starting pitching, which we could easily fill through trade and free agency.

Go For It? Or Rebuild?

It seems ridiculous to throw in the towel on a team that includes Adley Rutschman, Rafael Devers, Trea Turner, Framber Valdez, and Shohei Ohtani. Yet, we had those same players this year and we're struggling to finish with a .500 record. Having great players is no guarantee of success in the BDBL. You also have to have a heaping pile of luck on your side -- which has never happened in our franchise's history.

At this point, I'm leaning toward throwing in the towel. I will stick my finger in the air and see which direction the wind is blowing. If I'm tempted enough, I will blow this mother-F'er up. If not, maybe I will wait until the middle of the 2024 season to do so.

Chapter Five Autopsy

In lieu of the usual chapter review, I present the chapter autopsy. In my 25 seasons of playing this game, this has been, by far, the dumbest of all seasons. It is so insanely dumb that if it had happened in our first season, there wouldn't have been a second. The only thing stopping me from quitting this game and spending more quality time with my family is my BDBL family.

As I have written here before, the underlying premise of this game is that the players on our team will perform somewhat like the real players themselves. We allow for a good deal of wiggle room due to random fluctuations on the bell curve. But in general, our players should mostly resemble their real-life selves. Otherwise, what's the fucking point?

We are now 83% into our season. Any huge random fluctuations should have been ironed out by now. Yet, as I type, Shohei Ohtani and Rafael Devers -- two of the best hitters in baseball a year ago -- are sitting at 29 homers combined. They hit 61 combined in MLB last year. They will need to double their output in the next 28 games to get to that number. If they hit even half that many home runs next chapter (which would be a near-record) they would not even finish anywhere near their MLB output for the season.

Devers owns a .412 slugging percentage. Ohtani, arguably the game's greatest power hitter, sits t .381. Ranger Suarez, owner of a 3.65 ERA in MLB '22, currently sits at 6.82.What is the fucking point of this?

Two chapters into this season, we owned the best record of any team in the BDBL not named the Los Altos Undertakers. We sat comfortably in first-place in our division by three games. At the all-star break, we owned a sizeable four-game lead in the OL wildcard race and sat just one game out of the division lead. Heading into this chapter, we shared the wildcard lead.

Today, one chapter later, we are so far out of the wildcard lead (six games) that a playoffs spot is highly-unlikely. We went 21-7 in Chapter Two. In Chapter Five, we went 7-21. This is the SAME TEAM, folks! We didn't trade anyone. In fact, we added a few players to our roster through trade that were supposed to help this team win.

2023 has become a lost season for the Florida Mulligans. We came into this season with sky-high expectations, based on the fact that we owned so many great hitters, a one-two punch of Ohtani and Valdez in the starting rotation, and a decent bullpen. All of that has gone out the window. As we now look forward to 2024, I see plenty of reasons to believe we can contend. However, given what we've witnessed this year, it seems that having great players on your roster doesn't matter when those players don't perform anywhere near their MLB numbers. So, again, what's the fucking point of this?

The Latest Additions

The final trading deadline of the year came and went without any major deal on our part. We did manage to pick up one more arm for the bullpen. I have no doubt whatsoever that Dany Jimenez will be every bit as effective and productive as our last bullpen acquisition, Chase De Jong. And yes, that is sarcasm.

I did everything I could to make a Nic Weiss "arbitrage"-like deal. Luis Garcia is done for the MLB season and is having a terrific BDBL season. I figured I could get something for him. Maybe unload a bad contract. But no. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. So, I now look forward to cutting him in December.

The big midseason draft allowed us to prune some dead branches of our farm system and replace them with fresh new budding young talent:

• Kyle Teel: The 14th pick in the MLB draft by the shitty Red Sox, and the 7th-best prospect in the draft according to MLB.com. He is a catcher by trade, which means he may become trade bait unless he shifts positions -- which is highly likely. He is coming off an outstanding year with Virginia (.407/.475/.655, 13 HR, 32/36 BB/K), and will likely move quickly through the minor leagues.
• Jose Perdomo: He is considered to be at or near the top of the International prospects ranking for 2024, along with our #1 pick last winter, Fernando Cruz. The scouting reports for both shortstops are nearly identical. Both are roughly the same size, are advanced hitters, top athletes, and likely to stick at shortstop.
• Wade Meckler: An 8th round draft pick in 2022, Meckler has done nothing but hit since turning pro. In 361 career pro PA's, he's slashing .375/.465/.521 with a 51/54 BB/K ratio. He has already reached the Double-A level in only his second pro season. Another guy named Wade (Boggs) hit .318/.412/.386 in his minor league career. Just sayin'.
• Jacob Cozart: Yet another catcher! Kiley McDaniel ranked Cozart as the #5 prospect in the 2024 draft, citing his "above-average defensive skills and raw power." As a sophomore at NC State, Cozart hit .301/.392/.546 with a 24/38 BB/K ratio.
• Christian Moore: This league is so ridiculous, it's become nearly impossible to find any top prospects who are eligible for a draft that is two years from now. Many of the players expected to be selected at the top of the 2025 draft are already claimed. Moore (.304/.444/.603, 17 HR), an outfielder with the University of Tennessee, is one of those prospects.
• Yuki Matsui: One of the best and most consistent relievers in Japan, the 27-year-old Matsui is eligible to come to the US following this season. This year, he has posted a 0.55 ERA in 32+ innings, allowing just one home run and five wallks, while striking out 44. For his career, he owns a 2.41 ERA, with only 5.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 12.1 K/9.