December 22:
As was true last year, I am not jazzed about ANY of the players available for this year's farm draft. Expanded farm rosters has, predictably, dried up all of the talent. Teams are filling their farms with players who won't see any level of American professional baseball for years to come. Of the top 30 players ranked in the upcoming 2024 MLB draft, only two or three are available. Among the 2025 draft pool, nearly every top prospect is already taken. Of the international prospects, all of the top names are long gone. The farm draft is always like buying a lottery ticket, but the past two years have been an exercise in futility.
Last year, I had to make twelve picks in the farm draft. This year, thankfully, I only need to make four. Last year, with the 22nd pick in the draft, I somehow managed to find seven useful players: Fernando Cruz, Brayden Taylor, Aiden Miller, Luis Morales, Ryan Noda, Michael Sirota, and Travis Sykora. If I can replicate that 58% success rate this year, I'll be happy.
This year's draft pool is heavier on the pitching side. With the 14th pick in the draft, I doubt that my top hitting prospects will still be available. As it stands, these are my top-ranked players. Of course, this ranking will undoubtedly change several times before my pick comes up.
1. Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
2. Paulino Santana, OF, Dominican Republic
3. Henry Lalane, P, NYY
4. Josh Hartle, P, Wake Forest
5. Victor Scott, OF, St. Louis
6. Dillon Head, OF, San Diego
7. Shota Imanaga, P, Japan
8. Andrew Walters, P, Cleveland
9. Yariel Rodriguez, P, Cuba/Japan
10. Slade Caldwell, OF, Arkansas HS
11. Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana U.
12. Seth Hernandez, P, California HS
13. Nolan Schubart, OF, Oklahoma U.
14. Jakob Marsee, OF, San Diego
King and Hartle are the last two remaining MLB '24 draft prospects available who are ranked among the top-20. I highly doubt either will be available at #14. Mike Ranney owns the pick directly ahead of mine at #13. I would bet my house that he takes Santana. Lalane pitches for the Yankees. Tony Badger owns the #2 pick in this draft. There is no way Lalane gets past Badger. Greg Newgard owns the #1 pick in this draft, and he has already told me he is taking Scott.
That leaves a group of very unexciting prospects that could potentially drop to us, beginning with Dillon Head. Head is extremely young and raw, but had a terrific pro debut out of high school last summer and was a first-round draft pick. Imanaga would be a great pickup, but given the publicity surrounding his MLB signing, it's doubtful he will fall that far.
Walters is a relief pitcher. I would hate to use my #1 pick on a reliever, but he's a great one. With both Cleveland and Akron picking behind us, he would probably fall to #14. The Cuban refugee, Rodriguez, pitched in Japan, mostly as a reliever, and sat out the entire 2023 season to escape from his contract. He's young, and has great upside potential, but there is no way of knowing how he would perform in the US.
The rest are high school and college fliers with the exception of Marsee, who had a breakout season last year, culminating in a terrific AFL performance. If all thirteen players I have ranked ahead of him are chosen, I would not be sad to be stuck with Marsee.
December 28:
Day one of the draft and our #1 is already off the board. No surprise there. Greg Newgard did tell me he would be picking a different guy at #1 (which he acquired in trade from Highland), but he decided to go in a different direction, gambling that his guy will still be there at #3. Since his guy isn't Henry Lalane, and since Tony Badger has the next pick, it's a pretty safe gamble.
Since my first diary entry I've discovered that Shota Imanaga is already taken. So that whittles my top-14 list to twelve. I have also decided to move Marsee up the ranking. The more I read about him, the more I like him. I would probably rather have Marsee than Head, so Marsee now becomes my fifth choice.
I suspect the draft will now stall until January 2nd, so I have plenty more time to waffle.
January 1:
The first round of the draft went pretty much as I suspected with one exception. Tony Badger NOT picking Henry Lalane was such a shock, I'm beginning to wonder if I'm living in a dream world. The fact that he took a 15-year-old instead doubles the shock value. I never would have bet on that happening.
Even more shocking was that Lalane fell to us at #14. I did not see that coming, especially with Johnny Bo picking just ahead of us. I'm very happy to have Lalane, although adding yet another left-handed pitcher to our roster is not something I wanted to do.
The problem (if you can call it that) is that too many prospects remain on the board that I would like to draft. There are 15 more picks until our next one, so I assume many of them will drop off the board by then. As it stands, I can't decide who my next pick should be. Josh Hartle is the next best pitcher on the board, but he, too, is left-handed. Victor Scott is shockingly still around, but I assume he'll be snatched up by Greg Newgard in Round Two. (He told me Scott was his #1 before the draft began.)
Jakob Marsee is still hanging around, and would be a great addition to our roster. Devin Taylor is probably the next-best college player available. Shunpeita Yamashita would be fun to add, although waiting until the 2030 BDBL season for him to arrive would be painful. Christ, I'll be 60 years old by then. Crazy.
January 2:
Round Two completely decimated my list more so than Round One. Yamashita, Hartle, Scott, and Marsee all vanished before the round came to my pick at #14. The only prospects left over were 2025 draft prospects, a relief pitcher, and Spencer Arrighetti. The draft prospects have the highest upside, but carry the highest risk. The reliever is a crapshoot. Arrighetti has a chance to pitch a good number of MLB innings this year, which would make him an addition to our 2025 rotation. Ultimately, that's what I chose to do.
Two more picks remaining for us, and there isn't a hell of a lot left to pick from.
January 4:
If you had told me before this draft that I would use all four picks on pitchers, I would have called you a lying, dog-faced pony soldier. Yet, here we are. My third pick went to Seth Hernandez, who is considered to be the best pitching prospect in the 2025 MLB draft class. Drafting high school pitchers is always something I try to avoid, but his scouting reports are convincing.
For my last pick, I was waffling between another 2025 prospect, Devin Taylor, and reliever Andrew Walters. John Gill made that decision for me by picking Taylor four picks ahead of me. Walters was the best closer in college baseball for the past two years. His college numbers -- especially his strikeout numbers -- are insane. Cleveland snatched him up in the second round, but he has yet to throw a professional pitch. I'm hoping he zips up the ladder as quickly as Orion Kerkering did last year.
And that's it. We're done. Until July. Then we get to do this all over again.
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