Draft Diary: The Auction

December 19:

I have come to the horrifying conclusion that there is only one free agent in this auction that fits the specific criteria I need to complete my lineup. Specifically, I need a right-handed or switch-hitter, with full-time usage, who hits both righties and lefties, and is rated in center field. Only five free agents fit three of those four categories, and only one -- Bryan Reynolds -- fits them all.

This conclusion is horrifying because it means that I now HAVE to sign Bryan Reynolds at ANY price or risk repeating last year's nightmare, where the bottom half of my lineup was a cesspool of uselessness. As it stands, I have $8 million allocated for Reynolds, but I'm not sure that it will be enough. He is ranked #74 in WAR. Last year, Ian Happ was ranked 49th in WAR and earned only $6 million in the auction. So it is possible.

Another horrifying conclusion I've reached is that I desperately need both Jon Gray and Wilmer Flores to NOT go Type H. I own the tie-breaker for both at $5 million. If some idiot decides to give either one of them a $5.5M deal, my entire auction strategy goes out the window. Gray is 31 years old and has never thrown more than 172 innings in a season. Giving him a guaranteed three-year contract would be insane. Flores is 32 years old, has exceeded 500 PA's just twice in eleven seasons, and has never had a WAR higher than 2.5.

You'd have to be a complete and total moron to go Type H on either one of those guys, but the auction seems to turn people into morons.

Flores fills not one, but TWO, gaping holes in our lineup. He would become Nick Senzel's platoon partner at second base and Brandon Belt's platoon partner at first. Signing Flores and Reynolds would give us a full lineup. Signing Gray would give us just enough starting innings to fill a season. We NEED all three or 2024 will be a bust.

I have a budget of $26.2 million to fill 14 spots. As it stands, this is my strategy:

• Reynolds: $8M
• Gray: $5M
• Flores: $5M
• Reliever: $5M
• The rest: $3.2M

I own the third pick in every round of the draft. Hector Neris, Hoby Milner, and Jordan Hicks are all in the draft, which means I'll get one of those three to fill the gaping hole in our bullpen.

This plan should work, but the insanity of the auction ensures that it won't.

January 2:

The placement of players in lots really screwed us over this year. The one guy we need more than anyone else, Jon Gray, is in the very last lot of this auction. There is no backup plan because no such plan is possible. There are two pitchers in this auction/draft that have similar numbers to Gray. One of them is Alex Cobb, who happens to be in the very first lot. The problem is that Cobb would perform horribly in our ballpark and has zero future value. The other is Jameson Taillon, who is in the draft and may not fall to us with pick #3. (Also, picking Taillon in the third round would mean we can't draft a quality reliever in that round.)

The pressing question, then, is do I place a $5 million bid on Cobb just to ensure that we have enough "quality" innings to get through this season? Or do I risk everything and hope that Gray falls to us with the tie-breaker at $5 million in the final lot?

The worst-case scenario is that we get neither one, and Taillon is chosen before our pick in Round Three. We would then need to draft TWO starting pitchers to fill that void, and the options are pretty gross. Our entire auction and draft relies on just ONE person believing that Jon Gray deserves a Type H contract. I can't help but think there is at least one person in this league foolish and/or desperate enough to believe such a thing.

Another player in that first lot is Reynolds, who is one of the three "must-have" players in this auction/draft. I intend to bid $8 million on him. I do not believe he is an $8 million player this year, but I believe he has the potential to be just that. His numbers will play up, big-time, in our ballpark. He played most of last season injured. I do not believe we've seen his peak yet. Currently, Jeff Paulson owns the top bid at $5 million. D.J. Shepard is the only person with a higher tie-breaker. The fact that no one has (yet) gone Type-H on him is somewhat encouraging, although we all know these auctions are decided in the very last seconds.

This may be the most stressful auction I've ever endured.

January 3:

I fucking HATE snipers. I freely admit that I have sniped before and I will snipe again. Because I am FORCED to do so by this stupid fucking system we have, which everyone seems to like but me. Instead of just bidding the appropriate maximum amount you have budgeted and letting the system do what it is designed to do, we are FORCED to wait until the very last seconds of each and every auction to make a last-second bid to prevent some douchebag from out-bidding us. It's a stupid fucking way to hold an auction, and yet we're stuck with it forever.

Bryan Reynolds would be a $6M player, max, in any other year. Case in point: Mark Canha. In 2022, I was forced to snipe a $6M Type-H bid for him after he had posted a .746 OPS in MLB '21. Reynolds posted a .790 OPS last year and has had roughly the same career, at roughly the same age, as Canha. Yet, Reynolds is currently at $7 million in the bidding with 11 hours remaining in this auction.

Ugh.

January 4:

Thankfully, that $7M bid stood up, and no one sniped at the last second to drive his salary up even higher. There are three players that we absolutely NEED in this auction, and we now have one of them. Two to go.

The good news is that Alex Cobb went for $5 million last night. Cobb's numbers are nearly identical to Jon Gray's. Chris Bassitt, whose numbers are arguably better than Gray's, is currently sitting at $5 million. It seems unlikely that anyone will go Type H on him, but we'll find out tonight if that happens. If not, it seems like a good bet that we'll get Gray at $5M.

The question is whether or not I should bump up my bid to $6M now that I've "saved" $1M on Reynolds. Do I want to go Type H on Jon Gray? I've been a Jon Gray fan for years. I franchised the guy because I believed in his stuff. But he's NEVER healthy enough to justify his salary.

Then again, Nathan Eovaldi was in a very similar career position a few years ago. By the time he was the same age as Gray, 31, he was coming off of five straight seasons where he pitched 130 or fewer innings in each season. It seemed like he would never be healthy enough to ever log 150-plus. Then, all of a sudden, at age 31, he turned in a 182-inning season and led the league in FIP. I can see that happening with Gray.

If Gray's auction were held today, I would submit a $6M bid just in case. Because if I don't win that bid on Gray, the Mulligans are absolutely screwed in 2024.

January 6:

We're now in the middle of the boring part of this auction. The three players that I want/need are four and six days away from their auction's expiration, which means I have nothing to do until then but place bids on players I know I won't get for the prices I'm bidding. I have already been out-bid for Brandon Woodruff, and his auction doesn't end until tomorrow.

So, I wait.

One encouraging note is that people seem to be hesitant to go Type H on starting pitchers. Alex Cobb, whose numbers are very similiar to Jon Gray's, went for $5 million. Chris Bassitt, whose numbers are better, went for just $5.5M. Michael Wacha and Dane Dunning are currently sitting at $5M. Call me crazy, but I think I can safely win the bid on Gray at $5 million. I don't see any reason why not.

January 8:

I placed a few bids on players in tomorrow night's lot just for grins. I don't expect to win the bid on any of them. Freddy Peralta ($5M bid) should easily get a Type H deal, and should get Aaron Nola ($7M) money at the very least. He's arguably the surest thing in this auction as far as pitching goes.

I placed a $3M bid on Pete Fairbanks, but he's almost a 100% lock to go to Lake Norman with the ultimate $5M tiebreaker. I also placed a $5M bid on Jorge Soler. His former team, Virginia, doesn't have much money left to spend after signing J.P. Crawford for $8.5 million, but there are so many teams ahead of me in the tie-breaker that it hardly matters. Soler will easily get at least $5 million, but doubtful he'll go Type-H. His numbers in our ballpark would be outstanding, though, so it's fun to dream on it.

January 9:

As expected, I'm not going to win the bid on Soler. What is not expected is that someone actually went Type-H on him. Soler has been a platoon hitter for his entire career. Paying $5.5/$5.5/$6.5 for a platoon player over the next three years is insane. Especially for a team that doesn't look like a contender any time soon.

I placed a $5M bid on Taijuan Walker, and don't expect to win that one, either. He has roughly the same exact numbers as Jon Gray, but pitched about 20 more innings. With full-time starters being so scarce in this auction, I expect someone will go Type-H. (Or one of the ten teams ahead of me in the tie-breaker will do so.)

I have a $5M bid on Matt Strahm that I also don't expect to win. I'm planning to spend $5M in round three on a reliever, and Strahm is better than any reliever in the draft, so why not place that bid?

I upped my bid on Wilmer Flores to $6M just in case. He's a "must-have" player in this auction. He fills not one, but TWO, holes in our lineup. I don't like being locked into a two-year deal with him after this year, but he finished last season very strong and seems to have turned a corner, career-wise. He always had potential, but never seemed to get the opportunity. San Fran seems to have a habit of turning mediocre hitters into stars. Maybe they turned his career around.

I highly doubt anyone would go $6M on Flores, never mind any higher than that. So I feel safe with that bid. If some idiot actually goes higher than that, then I'll let them have him and work on my Plans B and C to fill those two holes.

January 10:

I have written here before that I did not expect to get Taijuan Walker for $5 million, and in fact I did not. I am not disappointed, but I'm extremely annoyed. I refreshed his auction with 15 seconds left on his bid and I still owned the top bid. I began to dream about how nice it would be to have 20 extra innings of usage than I planned to have.

Then Chris Luhning swooped in with a last-seconds snipe.

It annoys me because it wasn't necessary. Luhning owns a higher tie-breaker. He could have upped the bid at any point in the day, but chose to snipe just for the sake of sniping. Maybe he gets off on the adrenaline rush or something. Whatever the reason may be, it is annoying as fuck.

Whatever. Moving on.

I currently own the top bids for two players in tonight's lot. I fully expect some douchebag to snipe at the last second on both. Some asshole will undoubtedly force me to go Type-H on Wilmer Flores, and some other asshole will steal Matt Strahm from me. It's practically guaranteed.

January 11:

Two down, one to go. Last night we added Wilmer Flores to the lineup. This gives us a very powerful lineup against lefties and righties. The best part is that we somehow managed to sign him to a $5 million salary, so we're not locked in to any future commitment. Ironically enough, I have sniping to thank for it. Go figure.

In addition to Flores, I also somehow won the bid for Matt Strahm last night. I did not expect that. The plan was to use my third-round pick on a reliever, but Strahm is better than any reliever in the draft, so that is now unnecessary.

Of the three players I targeted as "must-have's" coming into this auction, I've signed two. The last one remaining is Jon Gray, who is in the final lot of this auction. I placed a $6 million bid on him this morning, just to be sure I get him. Alex Cobb, Chris Bassitt, Charlie Morton, Michael Wacha, Dane Dunning, Chris Sale, Kyle Gibson, and Taijuan Walker all went for $6 million or less. If I don't get Gray for $6 million, something sinister is afoot.

January 13:

It's over. And I have to say, it couldn't have gone better. I targeted three guys (Jon Gray, Wilmer Flores, and Bryan Reynolds) I had to have, and I got all three. I was willing to go Type H on all three, but got two of them at $5 million. No future commitments necessary. I'm happy with paying $7 million for Reynolds, as I believe we haven't yet seen his peak.

I budgeted $5 million for a reliever, which I planned to use with my first pick in the third round. Instead, I ended up with Matt Strahm, who is far better than any reliever in the draft.

I'm now left with $4.2 million for ten players. I can work with that.