The farm draft is well underway, with our pick coming up in just moments. Most of the tough decisions have already been made. I had narrowed down our #1 pick to three prospects: Luis Rodriguez, Jared Kelley, and Nick Gonzales. Bob Sylvester nabbed Gonzales earlier this morning, so that leaves only two. Both are likely to fall to us.
Rodriguez has been #1 on my list for a while now. His scouting reports remind me of Rafael Devers at the same point in his career. He has a plus hit tool, with plus power, hits to all fields, has an advanced approach, and great athleticism. There are two good reasons why he has slipped to #2 on my list, however.
First, we need pitching in the Salem organization more than another bat. Kelley has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Despite the fact that he's in high school, he could advance quickly up the ladder.
Secondly, Rodriguez seems to be slipping under the radar. No one is talking about him. The only article I can find online that mentions him, and was written after July of last year, was one article from Baseball America. Unless you specifically looked for that article, you'd never find it. So, I think it's possible that we could wait until the second round to select him. It's a gamble, but the farm draft is all about taking gambles. If Rodriguez falls to Los Altos, however, I will be kicking myself for the next decade.
On the auction front, we currently own the top bid for Jacob deGrom at $14 million -- which happens to be the max bid that I entered, just to prime the pump a little. Obviously, if we ended up with deGrom at $14 million, I'd be ecstatic. That won't happen.
Unfortunately, our "Plan B", Mark Canha, is also in this first auction lot, and he's already sporting a "Type H" salary of $5.5 million. As much as I would love to add deGrom, Max Scherzer, or (especially) Christian Yelich, I don't think it would be in the best interest of this team. We have too many holes to fill, and we don't have enough money to fill them.
If we add one of the Big Three, then we're basically resigning ourselves to playing with the roster we already have. That isn't the worst option, but it isn't the best, either. The thought of playing Shohei Ohtani in right field every day against right-handers doesn't thrill me. Neither does the thought of sending some $100,000 catcher behind the plate against righties. Neither does the thought of starting Steven Matz every fifth game. And neither does the thought of heading into this season with the bullpen we currently have.
The more I look at it, the more I believe something like this makes much more sense than the all-or-nothing approach:
Jake Odorizzi: $7 million
Yasmani Grandal: $8 million
Platoon RF: $3 million
Relief pitcher: $2 million
Six scrubs: $100K each
Of course, the problem with this strategy is that if any of the above players fetches more than the estimates I listed, the entire strategy falls apart. We have no "Plan B" to fill that fifth starting pitcher slot if we don't get deGrom, Scherzer, or Odorizzi. We have no backup plan at catcher if we don't get Grandal. And it's almost guaranteed that someone takes all of the best platoon right fielders before that $3 million pick gets all the way down to #23.
Basically, we're kind of screwed no matter what we do. Regardless of what happens in this auction and draft, we will need to wheel and deal to plug some of these holes.
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