2020 Draft Day Prep

Draft Day is once again upon us, which means it's time to talk strategy.

We have $20.7 million to spend on ten open roster spots. If the season were to begin today, we could play with the roster we have right now, so there are no urgent holes needing to be filled. That's the good news. The bad news is that there are some holes I would like to fill, and there aren't many palatable options to fill them.

Given our situation, we could go with the old "all-or-nothing" strategy, where we place all of our eggs in one basket, and just live with the rest of the roster as it stands. This strategy is particularly temping this winter, given the presence of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in the free agent pool. Adding either one of those aces would push Sonny Gray to #2 in our rotation, and Stephen Strasburg (who would easily be a #1 for most teams) all the way to #3. This would give us a huge competitive advantage.

It's also tempting to add Christian Yelich to our lineup. As it stands, we would have to play Shohei Ohtani out of position in right field against right-handed pitching. We could really use a right fielder, and Yelich is the best the game has to offer. The only downside is that he is left-handed, which would make our lineup very lefty-heavy, with Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers already written in our lineup in indelible ink through the 2026 season. However, this isn't much of a worry. The fact is that players like Yelich don't come around often. At 28 years old, he's in the prime of his career. Signing him for two more years after this one seems like the safest bet we could make.

Our catching position is a black hole against right-handed pitching. There are several part-time options we could use there. Or, we could spend big bucks for Yasmani Grandal. His bat would be almost as valuable as Yelich's, and at a position where it is difficult to find offense. He would also give us a stopgap solution until Adley Rutschman arrives. By the time Grandal's contract would end after 2022, Rutschman should be ready to step in for the next decade, if all works out as we hope it will. Grandal would likely cost at least $8 million, which would make Yelich, deGrom, and Scherzer unattainable.

If we fail to sign Yelich, Mark Canha is an interesting option for right field. He would be spectacular for us this year as a full-time right fielder, pushing Ohtani to the bench (or part-time play.) However, his future isn't nearly as predictable as Yelich's. Although we believe Canha can repeat his 2019 performance -- or at least come close -- he's never played at that level before. At age 30, is this his "new norm?" Or is it a fluke? Are we willing to bet upwards of $7 million that he can repeat that performance?

Another problem with Canha is that he appears in the very first lot of the auction. We'll have to decide quickly which way we go. If it looks like he can be signed for less than $7 million, we may be forced to bail out on Yelich. deGrom, Scherzer, and Yelich are leading the first three lots, so our "all-or-nothing" strategy can be a moot point by day four if we fail to sign any of those guys. I would prefer the order to be: Yelich, deGrom, Scherzer. But we never seem to get what we want when it comes to the auction.

I'm not thrilled with our bullpen at the moment, but trying to add a closer in the auction/draft, without a high draft pick, is an expensive endeavor. It means going "Type H" on a relief pitcher, which is something we've never done before, and would like to avoid ever doing. We could live with our bullpen for now, and add a piece or two later in the year.

So, after all is said and done, here is where we stand:

Strategy #1: "All or nothing"

deGrom/Scherzer/Yelich: $17 million
Backup catcher: $2 million
Platoon outfielder: $1 million
7 scrubs: $100K each

Strategy #2: "Spread it out"

Grandal: $8 million
Canha: $6.5 million
Reliever: $5 million
Flier: $500K
6 scrubs: $100K each

Of course, if past history is any indication, we'll end up going with Strategy #3, which is "Well, shit, that didn't work out like we planned, so let's just wing it!"