Chapter Five Recap

We started Chapter Five by losing a series to Darien, allowing them to sneak to the top of the division for the first time this year. We even managed to lose two games to left-handed starters after having added three lefty-mashing bats to our lineup at the end of Chapter Four.

We split against Flagstaff, losing both games in extra innings. We also split a series against last-place Ravenswood's robot manager. Thankfully, we managed to take three of four from Lake Norman, Cleveland, and Charlotte, and swept the West Chester Blooms. That put us at 18-10 for the chapter.

For now, we own sole possession of first place. Flagstaff's chapter is over, after they went 20-8 for the chapter. Darien still has sixteen games left to play. If they go just 9-7 in those 16 games, they will catch us. Given that four of those games are against West Chester, that seems like a lock.

We continued to knock the cover off the ball in Chapter Five, batting .295/.364/.513 as a team and averaging an even six runs per game. But I made a major, major, error by over-using Aaron Hicks. As a result, if we should make it to the Division Series, it will be without Hicks and his .337/.417/.483 bat against lefties.

Our Chapter Five pitching was a mixed bag. Michael Lorenzen, of all people, will probably be the OL Pitcher of the Chapter. He went a perfect 5-0 in five starts, with a 0.50 ERA. He pitched a complete-game gem (3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K) against Darien, and dominated Flagstaff (8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K) as well. On the other end of the spectrum, JP Sears posted an ugly 7.36 ERA in three games (14+ IP.) And our newest "closer," Craig Kimbrel, was lit up like a Christmas tree: 9 IP, 7 H, 11 R, 8 BB, 16 K, 3 HR.)

Our usage is going to be extremely tight down the stretch -- especially in the bullpen -- so I'd like to get the Flagstaff and Darien series done first in Chapter Six. Of course, people usually like to save those big series for last, so we'll see how that goes.

Chapter Four Recap

Four chapters are now in the book forever, and your Florida Mulligans are still in first place! Who could have predicted such a crazy, nutty season? Certainly not me. After last year, I had become so jaded, I believed it didn't matter how many quality players you put on the field. This game has a mind of its own and your fate is already sealed regardless of what you do.

Last year, nearly every player on our roster under-performed. We choked in clutch situations. We rolled over dead when our backs were against the wall. In the end, despite preseason predictions of postseason success, we didn't even make the playoffs cut.

This season has been the polar-opposite. Most of our players are performing at least as well as their MLB numbers suggest they should. We have not only performed well in the clutch, but we may have set a franchise record for come-from-behind wins (or at least it seems that way.) And we're coming through in big situations against tough teams.

Our Chapter Four schedule was so brutal, I assumed we'd be trailing far behind by now. Of our six opponents this past chapter, five of them have winning records. Three of the six are currently in first place in their divisions. Yet, we finished this chapter with an impressive 15-9 record. With the Darien Blue Wave going a ridiculous 18-6, that means we head into the final two chapters tied for first place in the McGowan Division.

Four of our fifteen wins happened when we were trailing after seven innings. We also won one game in which we were tied after seven, and two extra-inning games. We won fifteen games despite losing Shohei Ohtani in the early innings of Game One in two different series!

We hit .267/.338/.489 as a team. Ohtani (.302/.418/.491), Adley Rutschman (.304/.372/.510), Rafael Devers (.313/.360/.566), Jason Heyward (.377/.411/.755), and Aaron Hicks (.274/.383/.450) all knocked the cover off the ball.

On the pitching side, we posted a respectable 4.13 team ERA, with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. Michael Lorenzen (2-0, 1.25 in 21+ IP) was shockingly good. Ohtani (2-0, 1.86 in 19+) turned his abysmal pitching season around somewhat. Newcomer Nate Eovaldi (1-0, 2.92 in 24+) fit right in.

Our schedule doesn't get any easier. Next chapter, we'll face three -- count 'em, three -- teams sporting winning percentages of .630 or better. Two of those teams are in our division! We get to face the Flagstaff Peaks on friendly turf for four games, but then we have to travel to the armpit of the BDBL, Darien, for four. Those eight games could very well decide how this season ends for all three teams.

Our usage situation is very alarming at the moment, so to help remedy that, I made a couple of trades. First, I sent Seth Hernandez and Fernando Cruz to West Chester for Stone Garrett and Jorge Mateo. Garrett can fill in for Heyward against righties, and gives us another strong bat in the outfield against lefties (likely taking Bryan Reynolds' spot.) Mateo gives us another decent bat against lefties, and helps solve our usage problem at shortstop.

I made another trade with Kansas, sending Jorge Alcala their way in exchange for Garrett Cooper. He will help ease the usage burden on Wilmer Flores, who is currently at 77% of his MLB PA's. Wilmer hasn't done much against lefties this season (.190/.250/.444, vs. .303/.359/.527 in MLB), so maybe this will be an upgrade.

We still have some holes that would be nice to fill, but nothing pressing. We still have 2.9 to play with under the WAR cap, which is enough to haul in another good bat, or maybe another decent bullpen arm. Next weekend in Arlington will present plenty of opportunities for trade talk. We'll see what happens. If it's nothing, I'm comfortable riding it out with the team we have.

Chapter Three Recap

Surprise, surprise! Thanks to our 17-7 record in Chapter Three, we are now tied with the Flagstaff Peaks atop the McGowan Division at the all-star break. We share the best record (53-27, .663) in the BDBL. If the Lake Norman Monsters win all eight of their remaining games this chapter, then they will own the best record in the BDBL. Otherwise, it's all ours.

It's been a wild season. We began this season with a 16-12 record in Chapter One, which was five games behind the leader (Flagstaff) at that time. Since then, we own the best record (37-15, .712) in the BDBL. We traded Trea Turner and Jon Gray and somehow became better.

This past chapter, we faced such a tough schedule that I assumed we would be in third-place at this point. Instead, we took three out of four from the first-place Chicago Black Sox, three of four from the first-place Highland Freedom, three of four from the heavily-favored Darien Blue Wave, and split with the Peaks after losing the first two games of that series.

We head into the all-star break with several players who should be in the starting lineup of that game. Shohei Ohtani (.348/.429/.741, 28 HR, 98.2 RC) is well on his way to winning his second OL MVP award. Adley Rutschman (.319/.399/.495), Bryan Reynolds (.264/.334/.502), Brandon Belt (.264/.369/.563), Wilmer Flores (.275/.355/.480), and Jason Heyward (.324/.383/.571) all deserve consideration.

On the mound, Kutter Crawford (8-2, 3.03 ERA in 77+ IP) deserves a spot on the all-star roster, as does Dauri Moreta (6-0, 1.89 in 38). Our pitching has not been great, but it's been good enough to allow our offense to carry them. As I type, we own the best OPS (.850) in the BDBL, with the highest OBP (.353) and Slugging % (.497), and the most home runs (139).

Our pitching is merely good-enough. We rank 9th in the BDBL in ERA (4.37), 9th in CERA (4.19), and 9th in RCERA (4.27).

I have no idea how we got here, and I certainly don't know where we're going, but it sure has been a fun ride so far.

Chapter Two Recap

Way, way, back in BDBL history, there was an owner named Nic Weiss. Nic was a young college kid at the time, and I believe he was studying economics. He liked to apply the theories and principles he was learning at that time toward his experience as GM in the BDBL. In particular, he enjoyed using a term called "arbitrage."

The Wikipedia definition of arbitrage is: "the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets – striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded."

I'm not entirely sure what that means, but I think I may have committed some arbitrage this past chapter.

The Florida Mulligans followed up an incredibly irritating first chapter (16-12) with an absolutely mind-blowing 20-8 record in Chapter Two. We outscored our opponents by 52 runs, which is second only to the Darien Blue Wave. The Wave went 19-9 in Chapter Two with a +60 runs differential.

Just as we did in Chapter One, we hit the crap out of the ball in Chapter Two. We hit .274/.355/.492 as a team, and ranked among the top three in pretty much every offensive category. Shohei Ohtani (.352/.452/.790, 12 HR) hit out of his mind this chapter. If he doesn't win the OL HotC award, it will be a shock. Adley Rutschman (.333/.429/.441), Jason Heyward (.320/.424/.500), Lane Thomas (.298/.333/.521), and Rafael Devers (.275/.368/.500) also raked this chapter.

Our pitching was substantially better in Chapter Two than it was in the first chapter. We posted a respectable 3.73 ERA as a team, allowed only 219 hits in 253+ innings, and yielded just 21 homers. Night and day compared to Chapter One. Our bullpen was phenomenal. Robert Stephenson, Dauri Moreta, Jesse Chavez, and Isaiah Campbell threw 38 innings combined without allowing a single earned run. Add Matt Strahm and Ian Hamilton to that mix, and we're talking 63 innings and three total runs allowed.

Ohtani (2-0, 2.52 ERA) bounced back on the mound in a big way this chapter after a brutal Chapter One. Kutter Crawford (3-0, 2.31) continues to astound as well.

Now...about that arbitrage thing.

I was berated by Jeff Paulson throughout this chapter because I decided to trade Trea Turner and Jon Gray. The GOAT believes that I should not have given up on a team that could be in contention. As it stands, the Mulligans are in second place in our division, one game ahead of the Blue Wave in the wildcard and one game behind the Flagstaff Peaks. So, he does have a point.

However...realistically, I can see the writing on the wall. We don't have the pitching to compete in this division. Flagstaff and Darien are both likely to finish with 100+ wins. We won't come close to that with this pitching staff. I saw two opportunities to put this franchise in a great position for the next 4-6 years and took it. I'd do it again if given a second chance.

When we began this past offseason, we had ZERO pitching for 2025 and beyond, other than J.P. Sears. We were set to lose Gray to free agency. Ohtani won't pitch at all in 2024. Our 2025 pitching staff was in deep, deep trouble. Today, it is looking like it could be one of the best pitching staffs I've ever assembled.

• Kutter Crawford: acquired this past winter in trade, is off to a blazing-hot start: 27 IP, 16 H, 0 HR, 11 BB, 30 K, 0.66 ERA.
• Casey Mize: also acquired last winter, is back from over a year off and seems healthy and productive: 21+ IP, 20 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 2.95 ERA.
• MacKenzie Gore: yet another winter pick-up, is off to a strong start: 20 IP, 21 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 27 K, 3.60 ERA.
• Max Meyer: added in exchange for Gray: 17 IP, 11 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, 2.12 ERA.
• JP Sears: our lone holdover from last year: 26+ IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 16 K, 3.38 ERA.

That's five quality starters. Then we have several more arms in the minors that should be MLB-ready within the next year or two. Spencer Arrighetti made his MLB debut earlier this year. He had a rough debut, but looked good in his second outing, and has posted a 2.16 ERA in two AAA starts. Chase Dollander (15-7-2-5-27) has looked very good in his first three professional starts. If Ricky Tiedemann can ever stay healthy for more than a day, he would be a tremendous asset. And in the very low minors, Henry Lalane is being touted as a pitcher to watch over the next few years.

(And yes, I'm well aware that I just jinxed each and every one of the pitchers mentioned above.)

I'm not sure that any of this qualifies as arbitrage, but I'm very happy with how our roster is shaping up. We have so much depth in some key areas that if I wanted to make a move to improve our '24 chances, I could do that. And I just might!

Chapter One Recap

It didn't take long to figure out how this season will play out. By our second or third series, it became crystal clear. We will hit the crap out of the ball, but we'll need to score double digit runs in order to win, because our pitching is worse than horrendous. I knew this coming into the season, but I was hoping maybe I would be wrong. No such luck.

We wrapped up the first chapter with a respectable 16-12 record, matching the heavily-favored Darien Blue Wave. Both we and the Blue Wave are five games behind the red-hot Flagstaff Peaks, who won 21 games this chapter. We posted a runs differential of +28 despite allowing a league-high (for now) 149 runs.

We hit .295/.357/.530 as a team, which is just insane. We also hit an insane number of homers: 52. And we scored 177 runs, which is second only to Flagstaff. That's 6.3 runs per game, which is unsustainable, obviously.

That is a shame, because we would need to sustain that pace in order to win any games, given the horrific state of our pitching staff. We posted a 4.95 ERA in Chapter One, allowed more hits (263) than innings (250+), and a whopping 50 home runs (1.8 per game.)

Our "ace," Shohei Ohtani, went 1-3 with a 7.99 ERA. Michael Lorenzen (6.67 ERA), Joe Kelly (8.59), Bryan Shaw (12.86), and Robert Stephenon (5.93) have all allowed at least half as many home runs -- ALREADY! AFTER ONE CHAPTER! -- as they allowed ALL of last MLB season.

The one bright spot on our pitching staff is Kutter Crawford, who went 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA and has a chance to win the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award. Unfortunately, we had to use him out of the bullpen once due to an injury to a starting pitcher, which jacked up his usage. We have major usage issues across the board in our bullpen -- already! The number of teams that needlessly horde relievers in the BDBL has made it all but impossible to field a team.

We may also own the OL Hitter of the Chapter. Last year, Ohtani couldn't hit for shit. This year, he's making up for it. He hit .368/.424/.772 on the chapter, with 10 homers, 10 doubles, 3 triples, and 29 RBIs. Aaron Hicks (.345/.367/.586), Wilmer Flores (.333/.407/.556), Adley Rutschman (.327/.380/.566), Jason Heyward (.324/.351/.608), Brandon Belt (.302/.402/.523), and Bryan Reynolds (.271/.331/.508) all hit the snot out of the ball.

I don't know what to do with this team. We're obviously not good enough to compete, but we're obviously too good to throw in the towel at this point. I was tempted to trade Trea Turner this past chapter, and nearly did so, but ultimately decided to wait another chapter. I have plenty of trade bait if and when the time comes to bail. We're probably one ace starting pitcher away from being a playoff-caliber team, but that would mean trading a top prospect. Which I refuse to do. So here we are.

Draft Diary: The Free Agent Draft

January 14:

I have two dead spots in my lineup against right-handers, both in the outfield. My goal with my first draft pick was to fill one of those spots. The problem is that only one player, Mike Yastrzemski, fit the description. The other problem is that Tony DeCastro grabbed Yaz with one of his $5 million picks.

By the time I was able to make my first pick, I had a choice between Michael Conforto and Davis Schneider. Conforto would have been a good fit, but Schneider offers upside potential in addition to filling a hole this year. Ultimately, I went with Schneider. He isn't a full-time player by any stretch, but he can spot-start in left field when I need an extra bat.

Schneider was one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the second half of last year. He pretty much came out of nowhere, lit up the Triple-A level, and continued tearing the cover off the ball in his MLB debut. He's 27 years old, so his performance probably wasn't real, but there's always a chance. He's a second baseman by trade, which would fit perfectly for us in 2025.

In order to fill that second hole, I had to make a deal with the Devil. Well, the closest thing to the BDBL's version of the Devil. I offered to trade my next pick -- the third pick of the 16th round -- for an outfielder who can hit righties...and Jeff Paulson answered the call. He offered Jason Heyworth in exchange, and Heyworth just happens to be a perfect fit. Dammit.

The good news is that our roster is pretty much set at this point. Now it's just an exercise in filling out the reserves with fliers and lottery tickets.

January 16:

The $500K rounds completely obliterated my short list, to the point where I've had to create a new one...and then delete those names one-by-one. Evidently, we're all drafting from my list this year.

I assumed that with his inflated ERA and HR numbers, I could grab Josh Sborz with my first $100K pick, but DJ evidently read my notes on him and took him at $500K. So, instead of taking my final hitter for my active roster with my one and only $500K pick, I had to blow it on the last remaining semi-acceptable reliever: Bryan Shaw. With that, I now officially have enough innings to get through this season. Every year it's a nail-biter.

I need one more hitter for my active roster, but all the decent ones were snatched up in the past few rounds. The only semi-decent hitter remaining, Sam Haggerty, plays multiple positions, which is a good thing. The bad thing is that he doesn't play shortstop. Trea Turner is currently the only person on our roster who is rated at short. I'm thinking I may need to use that final pick on a glove-only shortstop like we did last year. That turned out so well, didn't it?

The smarter play, I think is to use that first $100K pick on a flier for the future, which I can possible turn into trade bait. The problem is that all of the decent flyers are also long-gone. This league is a real pain in my ass.

January 18:

It's over. As always, it's a relief when it's over. My last seven picks, all $100K, were mostly guys I am hoping can become useful bullpen arms a year from now: Kyle Hurt, Isaiah Campbell, Chad Green, Hagen Danner, Michael Grove, and Kody Funderbunk. At least one of those guys should stick. I got lucky last year and drafted two (Dauri Moreta and Alex Faedo) who stuck. Two out of eight seems to be the standard expectation for these $100K guys.

The seventh $100K pick was the last guy on our 35-man roster: Sam Haggerty. He will be an asset off the bench and can play multiple positions. In the end, I decided to leave the backup shortstop position empty. If Turner gets hurt, I'll just play someone out of position.

Draft Diary: The Auction

December 19:

I have come to the horrifying conclusion that there is only one free agent in this auction that fits the specific criteria I need to complete my lineup. Specifically, I need a right-handed or switch-hitter, with full-time usage, who hits both righties and lefties, and is rated in center field. Only five free agents fit three of those four categories, and only one -- Bryan Reynolds -- fits them all.

This conclusion is horrifying because it means that I now HAVE to sign Bryan Reynolds at ANY price or risk repeating last year's nightmare, where the bottom half of my lineup was a cesspool of uselessness. As it stands, I have $8 million allocated for Reynolds, but I'm not sure that it will be enough. He is ranked #74 in WAR. Last year, Ian Happ was ranked 49th in WAR and earned only $6 million in the auction. So it is possible.

Another horrifying conclusion I've reached is that I desperately need both Jon Gray and Wilmer Flores to NOT go Type H. I own the tie-breaker for both at $5 million. If some idiot decides to give either one of them a $5.5M deal, my entire auction strategy goes out the window. Gray is 31 years old and has never thrown more than 172 innings in a season. Giving him a guaranteed three-year contract would be insane. Flores is 32 years old, has exceeded 500 PA's just twice in eleven seasons, and has never had a WAR higher than 2.5.

You'd have to be a complete and total moron to go Type H on either one of those guys, but the auction seems to turn people into morons.

Flores fills not one, but TWO, gaping holes in our lineup. He would become Nick Senzel's platoon partner at second base and Brandon Belt's platoon partner at first. Signing Flores and Reynolds would give us a full lineup. Signing Gray would give us just enough starting innings to fill a season. We NEED all three or 2024 will be a bust.

I have a budget of $26.2 million to fill 14 spots. As it stands, this is my strategy:

• Reynolds: $8M
• Gray: $5M
• Flores: $5M
• Reliever: $5M
• The rest: $3.2M

I own the third pick in every round of the draft. Hector Neris, Hoby Milner, and Jordan Hicks are all in the draft, which means I'll get one of those three to fill the gaping hole in our bullpen.

This plan should work, but the insanity of the auction ensures that it won't.

January 2:

The placement of players in lots really screwed us over this year. The one guy we need more than anyone else, Jon Gray, is in the very last lot of this auction. There is no backup plan because no such plan is possible. There are two pitchers in this auction/draft that have similar numbers to Gray. One of them is Alex Cobb, who happens to be in the very first lot. The problem is that Cobb would perform horribly in our ballpark and has zero future value. The other is Jameson Taillon, who is in the draft and may not fall to us with pick #3. (Also, picking Taillon in the third round would mean we can't draft a quality reliever in that round.)

The pressing question, then, is do I place a $5 million bid on Cobb just to ensure that we have enough "quality" innings to get through this season? Or do I risk everything and hope that Gray falls to us with the tie-breaker at $5 million in the final lot?

The worst-case scenario is that we get neither one, and Taillon is chosen before our pick in Round Three. We would then need to draft TWO starting pitchers to fill that void, and the options are pretty gross. Our entire auction and draft relies on just ONE person believing that Jon Gray deserves a Type H contract. I can't help but think there is at least one person in this league foolish and/or desperate enough to believe such a thing.

Another player in that first lot is Reynolds, who is one of the three "must-have" players in this auction/draft. I intend to bid $8 million on him. I do not believe he is an $8 million player this year, but I believe he has the potential to be just that. His numbers will play up, big-time, in our ballpark. He played most of last season injured. I do not believe we've seen his peak yet. Currently, Jeff Paulson owns the top bid at $5 million. D.J. Shepard is the only person with a higher tie-breaker. The fact that no one has (yet) gone Type-H on him is somewhat encouraging, although we all know these auctions are decided in the very last seconds.

This may be the most stressful auction I've ever endured.

January 3:

I fucking HATE snipers. I freely admit that I have sniped before and I will snipe again. Because I am FORCED to do so by this stupid fucking system we have, which everyone seems to like but me. Instead of just bidding the appropriate maximum amount you have budgeted and letting the system do what it is designed to do, we are FORCED to wait until the very last seconds of each and every auction to make a last-second bid to prevent some douchebag from out-bidding us. It's a stupid fucking way to hold an auction, and yet we're stuck with it forever.

Bryan Reynolds would be a $6M player, max, in any other year. Case in point: Mark Canha. In 2022, I was forced to snipe a $6M Type-H bid for him after he had posted a .746 OPS in MLB '21. Reynolds posted a .790 OPS last year and has had roughly the same career, at roughly the same age, as Canha. Yet, Reynolds is currently at $7 million in the bidding with 11 hours remaining in this auction.

Ugh.

January 4:

Thankfully, that $7M bid stood up, and no one sniped at the last second to drive his salary up even higher. There are three players that we absolutely NEED in this auction, and we now have one of them. Two to go.

The good news is that Alex Cobb went for $5 million last night. Cobb's numbers are nearly identical to Jon Gray's. Chris Bassitt, whose numbers are arguably better than Gray's, is currently sitting at $5 million. It seems unlikely that anyone will go Type H on him, but we'll find out tonight if that happens. If not, it seems like a good bet that we'll get Gray at $5M.

The question is whether or not I should bump up my bid to $6M now that I've "saved" $1M on Reynolds. Do I want to go Type H on Jon Gray? I've been a Jon Gray fan for years. I franchised the guy because I believed in his stuff. But he's NEVER healthy enough to justify his salary.

Then again, Nathan Eovaldi was in a very similar career position a few years ago. By the time he was the same age as Gray, 31, he was coming off of five straight seasons where he pitched 130 or fewer innings in each season. It seemed like he would never be healthy enough to ever log 150-plus. Then, all of a sudden, at age 31, he turned in a 182-inning season and led the league in FIP. I can see that happening with Gray.

If Gray's auction were held today, I would submit a $6M bid just in case. Because if I don't win that bid on Gray, the Mulligans are absolutely screwed in 2024.

January 6:

We're now in the middle of the boring part of this auction. The three players that I want/need are four and six days away from their auction's expiration, which means I have nothing to do until then but place bids on players I know I won't get for the prices I'm bidding. I have already been out-bid for Brandon Woodruff, and his auction doesn't end until tomorrow.

So, I wait.

One encouraging note is that people seem to be hesitant to go Type H on starting pitchers. Alex Cobb, whose numbers are very similiar to Jon Gray's, went for $5 million. Chris Bassitt, whose numbers are better, went for just $5.5M. Michael Wacha and Dane Dunning are currently sitting at $5M. Call me crazy, but I think I can safely win the bid on Gray at $5 million. I don't see any reason why not.

January 8:

I placed a few bids on players in tomorrow night's lot just for grins. I don't expect to win the bid on any of them. Freddy Peralta ($5M bid) should easily get a Type H deal, and should get Aaron Nola ($7M) money at the very least. He's arguably the surest thing in this auction as far as pitching goes.

I placed a $3M bid on Pete Fairbanks, but he's almost a 100% lock to go to Lake Norman with the ultimate $5M tiebreaker. I also placed a $5M bid on Jorge Soler. His former team, Virginia, doesn't have much money left to spend after signing J.P. Crawford for $8.5 million, but there are so many teams ahead of me in the tie-breaker that it hardly matters. Soler will easily get at least $5 million, but doubtful he'll go Type-H. His numbers in our ballpark would be outstanding, though, so it's fun to dream on it.

January 9:

As expected, I'm not going to win the bid on Soler. What is not expected is that someone actually went Type-H on him. Soler has been a platoon hitter for his entire career. Paying $5.5/$5.5/$6.5 for a platoon player over the next three years is insane. Especially for a team that doesn't look like a contender any time soon.

I placed a $5M bid on Taijuan Walker, and don't expect to win that one, either. He has roughly the same exact numbers as Jon Gray, but pitched about 20 more innings. With full-time starters being so scarce in this auction, I expect someone will go Type-H. (Or one of the ten teams ahead of me in the tie-breaker will do so.)

I have a $5M bid on Matt Strahm that I also don't expect to win. I'm planning to spend $5M in round three on a reliever, and Strahm is better than any reliever in the draft, so why not place that bid?

I upped my bid on Wilmer Flores to $6M just in case. He's a "must-have" player in this auction. He fills not one, but TWO, holes in our lineup. I don't like being locked into a two-year deal with him after this year, but he finished last season very strong and seems to have turned a corner, career-wise. He always had potential, but never seemed to get the opportunity. San Fran seems to have a habit of turning mediocre hitters into stars. Maybe they turned his career around.

I highly doubt anyone would go $6M on Flores, never mind any higher than that. So I feel safe with that bid. If some idiot actually goes higher than that, then I'll let them have him and work on my Plans B and C to fill those two holes.

January 10:

I have written here before that I did not expect to get Taijuan Walker for $5 million, and in fact I did not. I am not disappointed, but I'm extremely annoyed. I refreshed his auction with 15 seconds left on his bid and I still owned the top bid. I began to dream about how nice it would be to have 20 extra innings of usage than I planned to have.

Then Chris Luhning swooped in with a last-seconds snipe.

It annoys me because it wasn't necessary. Luhning owns a higher tie-breaker. He could have upped the bid at any point in the day, but chose to snipe just for the sake of sniping. Maybe he gets off on the adrenaline rush or something. Whatever the reason may be, it is annoying as fuck.

Whatever. Moving on.

I currently own the top bids for two players in tonight's lot. I fully expect some douchebag to snipe at the last second on both. Some asshole will undoubtedly force me to go Type-H on Wilmer Flores, and some other asshole will steal Matt Strahm from me. It's practically guaranteed.

January 11:

Two down, one to go. Last night we added Wilmer Flores to the lineup. This gives us a very powerful lineup against lefties and righties. The best part is that we somehow managed to sign him to a $5 million salary, so we're not locked in to any future commitment. Ironically enough, I have sniping to thank for it. Go figure.

In addition to Flores, I also somehow won the bid for Matt Strahm last night. I did not expect that. The plan was to use my third-round pick on a reliever, but Strahm is better than any reliever in the draft, so that is now unnecessary.

Of the three players I targeted as "must-have's" coming into this auction, I've signed two. The last one remaining is Jon Gray, who is in the final lot of this auction. I placed a $6 million bid on him this morning, just to be sure I get him. Alex Cobb, Chris Bassitt, Charlie Morton, Michael Wacha, Dane Dunning, Chris Sale, Kyle Gibson, and Taijuan Walker all went for $6 million or less. If I don't get Gray for $6 million, something sinister is afoot.

January 13:

It's over. And I have to say, it couldn't have gone better. I targeted three guys (Jon Gray, Wilmer Flores, and Bryan Reynolds) I had to have, and I got all three. I was willing to go Type H on all three, but got two of them at $5 million. No future commitments necessary. I'm happy with paying $7 million for Reynolds, as I believe we haven't yet seen his peak.

I budgeted $5 million for a reliever, which I planned to use with my first pick in the third round. Instead, I ended up with Matt Strahm, who is far better than any reliever in the draft.

I'm now left with $4.2 million for ten players. I can work with that.