2023: Season in Review

Final record: 83-77 (.519)
Record excluding Chapter Two: 62-70 (.470)
Record excluding Chapter Five: 76-56 (.576)
Record excluding both chapters: 55-49 (.529)

So...were we a good team, a bad team, or a mediocre team? Beats the fuck out of me.

Rafael Devers, MLB '22: .295/.358/.521, 42 2B, 27 HR, 739/931
Rafael Devers, BDBL '23: .237/.317/.419, 34 2B, 21 HR, 728/740

Not even close. Not even remotely the same player. On the bell curve, we're talking about four standard deviations to the left. Off the chart.

Shohei Ohtani, MLB '22: .273/.356/.519, 34 HR, 788/921
Shohei Ohtani, BDBL '23: .231/.320/.410, 20 HR, 720/736

Again, not even close. Not the same player. Four standard deviations to the left. Statistically impossible.

Ranger Suarez, MLB '22: 3.65 ERA, 8.6 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 537/756
Ranger Suarez, BDBL '23: 6.44 ERA, 10.9 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 678/1.027

Nowhere near the same player. Not even remotely resembling the same player. Actual MLB statistics completely irrelevant. Game is broken.

Framber Valdez, MLB '22: 2.82 ERA, 7.4 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 505/620
Framber Valdez, BDBL '23: 3.96 ERA, 9.5 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 885/719

Okay, somewhat resembles the actual Framber Valdez if you ignore all the hits and those ridiculous splits. The "Framber Valdez" in the BDBL can't get lefties out to save his life. So, is he actually Framber Valdez? Or is he some bargain-basement Aldi's-brand knock-off? Because I acquired the actual Framber Valdez under the premise that he would actually be THE Framber Valdez.

Statistically speaking, it's mathematically possible that one of these four players could have shit the bed this dramatically. Let's call it a one-in-a-million chance that it could happen. What are the odds that ALL FOUR players could have shit the bed this badly? It's way above one in a billion. I would say it's statistically impossible. Which means this game is broken. Utter bullshit. What a waste of time this entire season was.

On to 2024, so we can repeat this bullshit all over again.

2024: Go For It? Or Rebuild?

The 2023 MLB season has officially come to an end, which means it is now time for us to look forward to the 2024 BDBL season and decide whether we're going to go all-in or rebuild. First, let's do some inventory.

Lineup vs. LH:

C Adley Rutschman: .304/.414/.481
LF Aaron Hicks: .349/.446/.524
RF Lane Thomas: .331/.375/.573
2B Nick Senzel: .347/.389/.619
CF Mark Canha: .264/.361/.464
DH Shohei Ohtani: .245/.358/.532
3B Rafael Devers: .273/.335/.488
1B Ryan Noda: .200/.340/.413
SS Trea Turner: .229/.295/.426

The top half of this lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Noda's numbers against left-handers took a nosedive in September. He was a very strong asset a month ago. Today, he's a borderline cut. Turner got off to an infamously slow start before busting out in the second half. But he, too, fell into the toilet in September, making him mostly useless to us next year.

There are teams in the BDBL right now who are leading their divisions with weaker lineups than this one. Of course, all of this depends on the BDBL numbers resembling these MLB numbers even remotely. As we've seen this year, that doesn't always happen.

Lineup vs. RH:

C Adley Rutschman: .267/.359/.419
DH Shohei Ohtani: .327/.431/.701
3B Rafael Devers: .270/.357/.505
1B Brandon Belt: .256/.375/.515
SS Trea Turner: .282/.331/.472
RF Lane Thomas: .242/.292/.427
CF Mark Canha: .261/.350/.369
LF Andrew Benintendi: .261/.327/.343
2B: TBD

Again, the top half of the lineup is very strong and the bottom half is very weak. Benintendi has been a disappointment from day one, and he's only become more and more useless every year. I listed Senzel as a second baseman against lefties, but it is very likely that he won't be rated at that position. If that happens, we have no second baseman against lefties AND righties. We had that same problem this year, and we've all seen the results of that.

Overall, the lineup against lefties and righties needs help.

Starting rotation:

1. Framber Valdez: 198 IP, 166 H, 19 HR, 57 BB, 200 K
2. Shohei Ohtani: 132 IP, 85 H, 18 HR, 55 BB, 167 K
3. Ranger Suarez: 125 IP, 129 H, 13 HR, 48 BB, 119 K
4. JP Sears: 172 IP, 165 H, 34 HR, 53 BB, 161 K
5. Alex Faedo: 65 IP, 48 H, 12 HR, 20 BB, 58 K

Yikes. Framber's numbers are similar to his numbers a year ago, and we've all seen how he has struggled in the BDBL all season. Ohtani should be great, but very limited in usage. Then, our rotation swirls down the toilet. In an ideal world, I would never want to start Suarez or Sears under any circumstance. Sears allowed 34 homers in the cavernous Oakland home park. How many would he allow in our park? 50? 60?

Bullpen:

David Bednar: 67 IP, 53 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 80 K
Ian Hamilton: 58 IP, 45 H, 2 HR, 26 BB, 82 K
AJ Minter: 65 IP, 56 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 82 K
Robert Stephenson: 52 IP, 30 H, 8 HR, 16 BB, 77 K
Dauri Moreta: 58 IP, 39 H, 4 HR, 24 BB, 76 K
Kyle Nelson: 56 IP, 59 H, 12 HR, 14 BB, 67 K

This is a decent bullpen. I would be happy heading into a season with this bullpen. We're about 35 innings short on usage, but that shouldn't be difficult to find.

Next, let's take a look at the money situation. Assuming we don't have any more penalties for over-use (and that is always an issue regardless of how diligent I am), here's where we stand:

22 players, at a total of $56.6 million.

Which leaves: $6.9 million for 13 players.

Again, I say: Yikes. In order to contend in 2024, we would need to fill two gaping holes: a starting pitcher and a second baseman. $6.9 million could not buy ONE of those two players, never mind two. Unless we dump some salary, there is no way we could fill those holes through free agency.

Whose salary would we want to dump? We could start with Ranger Suarez, who will make $10 million for being a part-time, mostly-useless, bum. No one in the league would take his salary unless we parted with a prospect along the lines of Wyatt Langford or Ethan Salas. And that ain't happening.

I would love to dump Benintendi, but he is a franchise player. (I stupidly signed him to a longer contract than Trea Turner.) Turner, in his final year under contract, would be another guy I would like to dump, but he, too, is franchised. Mark Canha ($6.5M) and Brandon Belt ($6.5) are overpaid for what they contribute, but would be tough to trade. Trading them would also create two more gaping holes in our lineup.

Honestly, it's hard to believe the salaries of these players add up to $56.6 million. I just had to double-check that, it's so incredible. But it's true.

Go For It

If we decide to go for it, it will require tremendous sacrifice. Langford and Salas are untouchable. We also can't afford to move Brooks Lee, as this is Turner's final year under contract and Lee is likely to slide right into our shortstop slot next year. That leaves prospects like Brock Wilken, Chase Dollander, Brandon Taylor, and Kyle Teel. We love those guys, but I'm guessing most people in the league don't even know who they are.

Going for it will require too much sacrifice. I'm not willing to trade away the future of this franchise for a longshot -- especially when we've already seen how this game can't be trusted to simulate reality in the first place.

Rebuild

Let's say we decide to rebuild. Who could we move in trade to get pieces for our future? Benintendi, Devers, Ohtani, and Turner are all franchised, so they can't be moved. That leaves Valdez as our number one trading chit, and he would fetch quite a lot in return. David Bednar, Aaron Hicks, AJ Minter, and Nick Senzel could fetch a good amount in trade as well. Ian Hamilton, Dauri Moreta, and Lane Thomas have trade value, but also have some possible future value.

Let's say we traded Valdez, Bednar, Hicks, Minter, and Senzel. Of the five, only Bednar is signed beyond 2024, so we lose nothing going forward. We would free $13.6 million in salary, which we could use to sign free agents with future value. We could snag several players in trade that could combine with Devers, Ohtani, Turner, Rutschman, and possibly Lee, to form a strong 2025 team. Our greatest need would be starting pitching, which we could easily fill through trade and free agency.

Go For It? Or Rebuild?

It seems ridiculous to throw in the towel on a team that includes Adley Rutschman, Rafael Devers, Trea Turner, Framber Valdez, and Shohei Ohtani. Yet, we had those same players this year and we're struggling to finish with a .500 record. Having great players is no guarantee of success in the BDBL. You also have to have a heaping pile of luck on your side -- which has never happened in our franchise's history.

At this point, I'm leaning toward throwing in the towel. I will stick my finger in the air and see which direction the wind is blowing. If I'm tempted enough, I will blow this mother-F'er up. If not, maybe I will wait until the middle of the 2024 season to do so.

Chapter Five Autopsy

In lieu of the usual chapter review, I present the chapter autopsy. In my 25 seasons of playing this game, this has been, by far, the dumbest of all seasons. It is so insanely dumb that if it had happened in our first season, there wouldn't have been a second. The only thing stopping me from quitting this game and spending more quality time with my family is my BDBL family.

As I have written here before, the underlying premise of this game is that the players on our team will perform somewhat like the real players themselves. We allow for a good deal of wiggle room due to random fluctuations on the bell curve. But in general, our players should mostly resemble their real-life selves. Otherwise, what's the fucking point?

We are now 83% into our season. Any huge random fluctuations should have been ironed out by now. Yet, as I type, Shohei Ohtani and Rafael Devers -- two of the best hitters in baseball a year ago -- are sitting at 29 homers combined. They hit 61 combined in MLB last year. They will need to double their output in the next 28 games to get to that number. If they hit even half that many home runs next chapter (which would be a near-record) they would not even finish anywhere near their MLB output for the season.

Devers owns a .412 slugging percentage. Ohtani, arguably the game's greatest power hitter, sits t .381. Ranger Suarez, owner of a 3.65 ERA in MLB '22, currently sits at 6.82.What is the fucking point of this?

Two chapters into this season, we owned the best record of any team in the BDBL not named the Los Altos Undertakers. We sat comfortably in first-place in our division by three games. At the all-star break, we owned a sizeable four-game lead in the OL wildcard race and sat just one game out of the division lead. Heading into this chapter, we shared the wildcard lead.

Today, one chapter later, we are so far out of the wildcard lead (six games) that a playoffs spot is highly-unlikely. We went 21-7 in Chapter Two. In Chapter Five, we went 7-21. This is the SAME TEAM, folks! We didn't trade anyone. In fact, we added a few players to our roster through trade that were supposed to help this team win.

2023 has become a lost season for the Florida Mulligans. We came into this season with sky-high expectations, based on the fact that we owned so many great hitters, a one-two punch of Ohtani and Valdez in the starting rotation, and a decent bullpen. All of that has gone out the window. As we now look forward to 2024, I see plenty of reasons to believe we can contend. However, given what we've witnessed this year, it seems that having great players on your roster doesn't matter when those players don't perform anywhere near their MLB numbers. So, again, what's the fucking point of this?

The Latest Additions

The final trading deadline of the year came and went without any major deal on our part. We did manage to pick up one more arm for the bullpen. I have no doubt whatsoever that Dany Jimenez will be every bit as effective and productive as our last bullpen acquisition, Chase De Jong. And yes, that is sarcasm.

I did everything I could to make a Nic Weiss "arbitrage"-like deal. Luis Garcia is done for the MLB season and is having a terrific BDBL season. I figured I could get something for him. Maybe unload a bad contract. But no. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. So, I now look forward to cutting him in December.

The big midseason draft allowed us to prune some dead branches of our farm system and replace them with fresh new budding young talent:

• Kyle Teel: The 14th pick in the MLB draft by the shitty Red Sox, and the 7th-best prospect in the draft according to MLB.com. He is a catcher by trade, which means he may become trade bait unless he shifts positions -- which is highly likely. He is coming off an outstanding year with Virginia (.407/.475/.655, 13 HR, 32/36 BB/K), and will likely move quickly through the minor leagues.
• Jose Perdomo: He is considered to be at or near the top of the International prospects ranking for 2024, along with our #1 pick last winter, Fernando Cruz. The scouting reports for both shortstops are nearly identical. Both are roughly the same size, are advanced hitters, top athletes, and likely to stick at shortstop.
• Wade Meckler: An 8th round draft pick in 2022, Meckler has done nothing but hit since turning pro. In 361 career pro PA's, he's slashing .375/.465/.521 with a 51/54 BB/K ratio. He has already reached the Double-A level in only his second pro season. Another guy named Wade (Boggs) hit .318/.412/.386 in his minor league career. Just sayin'.
• Jacob Cozart: Yet another catcher! Kiley McDaniel ranked Cozart as the #5 prospect in the 2024 draft, citing his "above-average defensive skills and raw power." As a sophomore at NC State, Cozart hit .301/.392/.546 with a 24/38 BB/K ratio.
• Christian Moore: This league is so ridiculous, it's become nearly impossible to find any top prospects who are eligible for a draft that is two years from now. Many of the players expected to be selected at the top of the 2025 draft are already claimed. Moore (.304/.444/.603, 17 HR), an outfielder with the University of Tennessee, is one of those prospects.
• Yuki Matsui: One of the best and most consistent relievers in Japan, the 27-year-old Matsui is eligible to come to the US following this season. This year, he has posted a 0.55 ERA in 32+ innings, allowing just one home run and five wallks, while striking out 44. For his career, he owns a 2.41 ERA, with only 5.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 12.1 K/9.

Chapter Four Review

It was fun while it lasted. Our 2023 season unofficially came to an end this chapter, as it has become crystal clear that the Florida Mulligans will never reach the potential we have this season. This season reminds me in so many ways of the 2021 season, when we had the best pitching staff (by far) in the entire BDBL and somehow managed to avoid the playoffs. On paper, this year's team should be good enough to win a spot in the playoffs -- if not a division title. Instead, we're barely scraping by.

We finished Chapter Four with an abysmal 10-14 record. Set aside our bizarre Chapter Two, in which we went 21-7, and we're a .500 team (38-38) the rest of this season. I believe .500 is the true representatation of this team's ability. That second chapter was a drastic outlier.

This team's under-performance can be blamed squarely on three factors:

1. Shohei Ohtani may win the OL Cy Young award this year. He may even win the league MVP. But he has been an abysmal failure at the plate for us this year. Through 102 games and 382 at-bats, he has managed to hit just 12 homers. He is on pace to hit just 18 this year, which is nowhere near the 34 homers he hit in MLB a year ago. What is the point of having Shohei Ohtani in your lineup if he doesn't hit like the actual, real, Shohei Ohtani? I have no idea who this imposter is, but he's nothing like the real deal.

2. Rafael Devers is the absolute worst, most disappointing player, I have ever managed in my 25-year career. His BDBL numbers (.232/.308/.381, 10 HR) are nowhere near his MLB numbers (.295/.358/.521, 27 HR.) We expected him to be useless against left-handers, and yet he's been better than expected. His problem is right-handed pitching, bizarrely enough. In MLB, he hit .304/.375/.557 against righties. This year, he's hitting just .215/.291/.354. Again, what is the point of having a top-30 hitter in our lineup if he performs like a bottom-30?

3. We have seen many, many, many teams in the BDBL's recent past who have had no-name, no-nothing, bullpens that performed extraordinarily well in the BDBL. We have a bullpen filled with no-name no-nothings, and yet we can't catch a break with any of them. They all suck. Carl Edwards (6.46) and Chase De Jong (6.49) have pitched worse than any position player in baseball. On the starting side, Ranger Suarez (6.49) and J.P. Sears (6.57) have been worse than useless. Before the game even begins, I know we're going to lose when those two are on the mound. Automatic losses. All four pitchers own ERA's over three runs higher than their MLB ERA's. Again, what is the point of having pitchers with good MLB numbers if they don't translate to the BDBL?

I am officially done trying to compete this year. Especially in this environment with the Undertakers running away with yet another BDBL title, there is no point in trying to improve this shit sandwich of a team. I have tried, and continue to try, to trade whatever I can for future value, but the trade market is abysmal this year.

We're now tied with the Ravenswood Infidels in the OL wildcard. The Infidels gave up on the season a few weeks ago, but then turned around and added a pitcher for this year. So who the hell knows what Skizm is up to. The direction of his team depends on the direction the wind is blowing. I know which direction we are heading: DOWN.

About That Trading Deadline

The first thing you learn when you participate in your first BDBL auction is that there is always someone -- and it only requires one person -- who is stupid enough to make an asinine decision that will ruin his franchise for years to come in order to satisfy an immediate need. Because of that, you will likely not get the player you desperately need at what anyone would consider to be a reasonable price.

The same holds true when it comes to trading. If you have your sights set on a player that fits perfectly for your team, you'd better be willing to do something extremely stupid and trade away your franchise's future or someone else will inevitably beat you to the punch.

To say that Brian "Skizm" Potrafka is a volatile character would be the understatement of the century. You never know what you will get from Skiz from one moment to the next. The only predictable part about him is that he is so unpredictable. Against all odds, he was winning his division in a tight race with the defending-champion Akron Ryche. He did not receive a single vote in preseason polling to win that division, and yet there he was enjoying a comfortable lead halfway through the season.

Last chapter, the Kansas Law Dogs placed Albert Pujols on the trading block. Pujols is exactly -- exactly -- the type of player we need in order to have any shot of winning our division and/or advancing in the playoffs. Pujols, however, is a three-chapter rental. He has no value whatsoever beyond this season. As such, I was not willing to sacrifice a significant piece of my team's future to get him. I did, however, offer several players with good value and invited Kansas GM Chris Luhning to select from ANY player on my roster, which I would then consider.

Instead of responding to my trade offer, Luhning went ahead and traded Pujols to Skizm. In fairness, I would not have offered as much as Skizm did. (See above: there is always someone willing to do something more stupid than you.) In essence, Skizm agreed to take on Zack Greinke's $6.5 million salary next season, which is something we can't afford. Still, it would have been courteous of Luhning to at least respond to my offer instead of ignoring it completely. Of course, when I called him out on that, he responded with his usual snark.

After stealing Pujols from under my nose, it took precisely fourteen days for Skizm to suddenly change his mind about the 2023 season. Despite still owning sole possession of first place in his division, he threw one of his patented temper tantrums and blew up his team. Set aside for a moment the damage that does to the league. This rant is about trading.

I made the same offer to Skizm as I did to Luhning -- opening the door to anyone on my roster. And he responded in the same snarky way as Luhning. Obviously, these people seem to believe that two chapters of Pujols is so valuable it's worth blowing up my team's future.

To be blunt: fuck that. The days of sacrificing our future for a 1,000-in-one shot at winning the trophy are over. I refuse to be pushed into making a stupid decision just because others are so willing to make stupid decisions. If I could get a sweetheart deal like the one Tony Chamra received from Skizm, that would be a no-brainer. But I'm clearly held to a different standard, so I will act accordingly.

The Florida Mulligans are good enough, as currently constituted, to win a spot in the playoffs. With the Undertakers and Blue Wave dominating at such a historic level, the odds that we would advance far into the postseason -- with or without Pujols -- are astronomical. So I plan to stand pat through the end of this season and expect an early exit in November. I'd rather lose the OLDS than lose a franchise player.

Chapter Three Review

We have played many dumb seasons over these 25 years, but none may be dumber than this one. Even the dumb-as-shit 2021 season, in which we used a projection disk and Jim Dumbledoyle's team ended up winning the championship, may not have been dumber than this one. I simply can't fathom how the same team, comprised of the same players, with the same statistics, can possibly perform so wildly different from one chapter to another -- or even one series to another. It makes zero sense. In Major League Baseball, when we see a team lose ten games in a row, and then win ten in a row (or vice versa) there is a reason for it. Usually, a star player is injured or returns from injury. What's this team's excuse?

Just to review, we began this season with a record of 9-11 (.450). We then went on a 28-8 (.778) tear over our next 36 games. Then we began Chapter Three with a 5-11 (.333) record before going 7-1 (.875) in our final two series. Will the real Florida Mulligans please stand up??

You may think that our wild swings in performance are due to the strength or weakness of our schedule. But no. In Chapter Three, we were swept by the sub-.500 last-place Chicago Black Sox. We also lost three of four to the Philadelphia Fightin's, who are struggling to maintain a .400 record this season. And yet we somehow won three out of four against the (then) first-place Darien Blue Wave.

Miraculously, we currently sit in a first-place tie with the Blue Wave atop the McGowan Division. This is true despite the fact that we've played sub-.500 baseball for nearly half our season! This is true despite the fact that Darien has outscored their opponents by more than double our runs differential! This is true despite the fact that Rafael Devers, who is supposed to be one of our best hitters, is hitting just .231 and is slugging just .360. And this is true despite the fact that Framber Valdez, who is supposed to be one of the best pitchers in the league, is just 7-7 with a 4.05 ERA!

A few random player notes:

• Ranger Suarez's performance this year defies explanation. In MLB, he allowed fewer hits than innings -- an average of 8.6 per game. In the BDBL, he has allowed a whopping 99 hits in just 80+ innings -- an average of 11.1 per game! He has started 14 games this year, and has allowed more hits than innings in 10 of those games! He has allowed 9 or more hits in a game 5 times so far.
• Shohei Ohtani leads the entire BDBL with 12 wins (12-1), is currently ranked #2 in ERA in the OL (2.20), and nearly leads the league in all three triple-slash categories (.168/.240/.300). If he doesn't win the vote for OL all-star starter, something is severely wrong.
• Jon Gray (7-1, 2.59 ERA in 73 IP) has probably been the greatest (positive) surprise of this season. He probably deserves an all-star appearance as well.
• Rafael Devers (27 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 14 homers this season. Ohtani (34 HR in MLB) is on pace to hit just 16. The Sand Trap has a 102 HR factor for left-handed batters. Boston's factor is just 96. Anaheim's is 134. Ohtani's suppressed power is somewhat forgiveable based on that difference, but he shouldn't hit HALF as many homers in the BDBL. What excuse does Devers have? A year ago, he hit 50 home runs in the same goddamn ballpark with the same goddamn factors.
• After a very slow start, Adley Rutschman's bat has finally showed up. He hit .274/.386/.466 in Chapter Three, and finished second to only Trea Turner (.324/.387/.491) in runs created.
• Turner made 16 errors in 160 MLB games last year. This year, he's already made 11 errors in only half the number of games.
• Rafael Devers hit one home run in Chapter Three. ONE. Have I mentioned how disappointing his season has been?
• Ohtani hit just .188/.273/.323 with three homers last chapter. He may have screwed himself out of a spot in the all-star starting lineup with that performance.
• The bottom of our lineup is an absolute shit show. Wilmer Flores (.174), Aaron Hicks (.138), Jonathan Schoop (.188), Curt Casali (.077), and Lane Thomas (.143) all hit below .200 this chapter.
• Ranger Suarez was just about automatic in Chapter Three. Automatically awful. He made four starts, went 0-2, posted an 8.18 ERA, and allowed 5 homers in just 22 innings.
• The two newcomers we got from the Peaks last chapter were both lemons. I covered Flores' performance already. The other guy we got, Chase De Jong, posted a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. Meanwhile, the kid we gave up for him, Aidan Miller, is currently ranked #20 in the draft by BA.

Where do we go from here? Your guess is as good as mine. At least we're back in the hunt. I'd love to pick up at least one more bat and another bullpen arm before trading season ends. We're playing .600 ball without a first baseman or second baseman who can actually hit a baseball. Imagine what we could do with one of those!