We went 6-6 against Akron during the regular season. Aside from one blowout 12-1 win, most of those games were close. In fact, seven out of the twelve games were decided by just one run. Needless to say, our teams are evenly-matched.
Any time you face an opponent that is so evenly-matched, it places a greater emphasis on advanced scouting. Any advantage that can be found must be exploited. Each game could very well be decided by one decision.
My first question as I scan the Akron roster is: who will D.J. Shepard pitch against us? Mike Clevinger and Trevor Williams are the only two guaranteed starters, and will likely start the first two games, in either order. Clevinger started a game in all three series, and absolutely dominated. He allowed only 3 runs on 8 hits in 20+ innings. It is tempting to start Shohei Ohtani in right field against him, just to have one more left-handed bat in the lineup. The only other option would be to give Ramon Laureano a start, but Clevinger dominated right-handed batters (.219/.264/.380) this season.
Williams started twice against us this season and held us in check both times. His split stats are more consistent than Clevinger's, so adding another left-handed bat wouldn't help much. The first two games in this series are all but guaranteed to be low-scoring affairs for us. Whatever advantage we get from having the home field will be negated by those two pitchers.
Clevinger could possibly pitch on short rest, given his Vg endurance rating, but Williams is thankfully rated only Av. My guess is that Clevinger starts Games One, Four, and Seven, and Williams starts Games Two and Six. Who starts Games Three and Five? Your guess is as good as mine. Jose Quintana (16-8, 3.87 ERA in 32 starts) and Robbie Ray (6-5, 4.87 ERA in 24 starts) racked up the next two highest start totals during the regular season, but D.J. seems reluctant to throw left-handers against us. Of the twelve games we played this season, a lefty started only three of them.
Marcus Stroman started twice against us, but didn't pitch particularly well. There is such a disconnect between his MLB and BDBL numbers that I don't know what to make of him. Garrett Richards (3-4, 3.78) started one game against us, but he is eligible to throw only six innings in the Division Series. If I had to guess, I would say the pitching matchups for this series will be:
Game 1: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
Game 2: Sanchez vs. Williams
Game 3: Buchholz vs. Quintana
Game 4: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
Game 5: Bullpen vs. Richards
Game 6: Sanchez vs. Williams
Game 7: Strasburg vs. Clevinger
I could be completely wrong about that. Time will tell.
Akron's bullpen is filled with left-handers, which works to our advantage. Two of those lefties, Jose Castillo and Josh Hader, are very homer-prone, which also works to our advantage. If we can keep the score close heading into the late innings, we should be in good shape.
Offensively, we will have to deal with one of the most potent lineups in the league. Akron's ballpark is heavily-tilted toward power hitters from both sides of the plate. We're starting Buchholz in Akron for that reason, as he was the best starter on our team for preventing home runs. For that reason, Strasburg will likely struggle.
Jedd Gyorko (1.130 OPS vs. LH), David Dahl (1.075), Ronald Acuna (1.031), and Yairo Munoz (1.030) all pummeled left-handers all season, so we'll have to do our best to avoid using Oliver Perez and Taylor Rogers against them. Against righties, newcomer Scooter Gennett (.975), Acuna (.972), Kolten Wong (.942), Jesse Winker (.941), and Starling Marte (.931) are all pains in the ass.
Strategically, D.J. is pretty much a "1-1" type of manager. He doesn't run a lot, doesn't bunt a lot, and led the league with the fewest number of intentional walks. This is neither an advantage or disadvantage. He does control the running game well, and Akron's main catcher, Wilson Ramos, keeps base stealing to a minimum with his Vg arm. This diminishes one of our big weapons, but won't entirely erase it.
At first glance, there don't appear to be many areas for exploitation for this series. We'll just have to pound the "1" key and hope the Gods of Random Dice Rolls are kind to us.
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Monday, October 28, 2019
2019 Playoffs Diary: Setting the OLDS Roster
One other, Jon Gray, is an enigma. He was unexpectedly outstanding this season: 10-3, 3.48 ERA in 108+ innings, with only 98 hits allowed, and 111 K's. He held both lefties (697 OPS) and righties (662) at bay, which would be a very big asset against the balanced offensive attack of the Akron Ryche.
...BUT...
You have to take his numbers with an Everest-sized grain of salt. We only used him against the worst teams in the league this year. The only above-.500 teams he faced all season were Joplin (who crushed him) and Ravenswood (who didn't.) I simply can't trust that Gray would perform well against a team like Akron. So he will be sitting out the month of November as well.
That leaves two pitchers with unlimited innings in the playoffs: Stephen Strasburg and Anibal Sanchez. The problem with Sanchez is that we never know which version will show up on game day: the one who dominated Major League Baseball last year of the one who continually disappointed us all season in the BDBL. Sanchez allowed six runs in three different games this season, and one of those was against Akron.
I don't think we have any other choice but to keep him on the playoffs roster and give him two starts in the Division Series. Our best starter, Clay Buchholz, is limited to 7.2 innings. Trevor Cahill is limited to 8.2. Shohei Ohtani is limited to 4. It is tempting to use our bullpen as much as possible, but we can only "bullpen" so many games.
At this point, our LDS rotation looks something like this:
Game 1: Strasburg
Game 2: Sanchez
Game 3: Buchholz
Game 4: Strasburg
Game 5: Bullpen game (start Ohtani for 2)
Game 6: Sanchez
Game 7: Strasburg
There are a lot of "X-factors" involved with this plan. Strasburg will be pitching on three days rest, which means we'll have to limit him to around 90 pitches per game. Or we could move our bullpen game to Game 4 and have Stras start Game 5 on full rest. Or we could give Cahill a start. The problem is that if we did either, we'd have no one to start Game 7. However, you should never plan a series to go the distance. One game at a time. We can worry about Game 7 if we get there.
Our bullpen is set: Taylor Rogers, Ryan Brasier, Jonathan Holder, Oliver Perez, Rich Rodriguez, Pedro Strop, and Ohtani for two. We will also keep Cahill on the roster in case we get ourselves into an extra-innings jam.
Our offense is also set in stone. Akron will likely start two left-handers (Carlos Quintana and Robbie Ray), which means our two lefty-bashers, Christian Villanueva and Danny Valencia, are no-brainers. Akron's two best relievers are also left-handed, so we need to max out their usage this series.
Odubel Herrera and Hunter Renfroe were dreadful all season, but we may need to give Renfroe a start, as Ramon Laureano is limited to just 6 PA's against lefties in this series. Otherwise, the rest of the lineup shakes out as it has throughout the season.
We have a big decision to make regarding our lineup against right-handers. Shohei Ohtani's bat is far too valuable to waste on the bench. He hit .279/.369/.487 this season against righties -- and that was a drastic under-performance. He is a huge liability in the field, however, as he is not rated at any position. We used him a lot in right field this season, and he was absolutely dreadful. If he cost the team a run per game in the field, his bat made up for it throughout the course of the long 160-game season. In a short series, however, those small mistakes are magnified and every run is crucial.
The problem is that if Ohtani's bat isn't in the lineup, then he'll be replaced by either Enrique Hernandez (.213/.299/.448 vs. RH this year) or Renfroe (.186/.234/.350). We can't afford to start either of them. At this point, it may need to be a game-time decision. On the plus side, both Hernandez and Renfroe are right-handed power hitters, which plays well in Akron's home park (RH HR factor of 115).
Another question we will need to eventually address is what to do with our 25th roster spot. At the moment, it's empty. We could give it to Herrera or Danny Jansen, but that seems like a waste of a spot. Trevor May is only eligible to pitch two innings in the series, but they would likely be two great innings. Felix Pena was lights-out (.218/.262/.280) against righties, but was pounded by lefties, so he wouldn't be all that useful against Akron's balanced lineup. Mike Montgomery would be a waste of a roster spot as well.
This Division Series will be decided by a series of coin flips. Akron is a 100-win team with a potent offense and a quality pitching staff -- which is exactly why we didn't want to face them in the playoffs. We still have a lot of work to do to prepare for this series.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
Chapter Five Review
We wrapped up the fifth chapter with a record of 18-10, and now sit with a record of 91-41 (.689) on the season. The division race is all but over, as we lead Joplin by sixteen games. However, we're on pace to finish this chapter two games behind Los Altos for the best record in the league, which means we would have to face the Akron Ryche in the Division Series if the season ended today.
We only lost two series last chapter. Sadly enough, one was to Akron and the other was against Los Altos. This does not bode well for our fate in the coming Tournament of Randomness.
Our franchise record for wins in a season is 112, which means we'd need to win an improbable 21 games in the final chapter to tie that record. We're only nine wins away from 100 wins, which would be the eighth time we reached that figure in the league's 21-year history. It would be our first 100-win season since 2014, and only our second 100-win season since 2008. Of course, it would also be our first division title since '08 as well.
Jose Ramirez seemed to fall into a slump during our ill-fated rematch with Los Altos last chapter, but his overall numbers for the chapter were impressive: .279/.401/.577, 8 HR, and a team-leading 29 runs created. Trea Turner (.333/.417/.465, with 19 stolen bases) enjoyed an impressive chapter as well. As did Travis Shaw (.273/.408/.558.) Each of those three players created 20 or more runs on the chapter.
The other newcomer to our roster, Brandon Nimmo (.316/.402/.500) began paying dividends for us last chapter. Justin Turner (.322/.363/.456) broke out of his mini slump. Kike Hernandez hit only .216/.310/.534 for the chapter, but tied Ramirez with eight home runs in Chapter Five. Ramon Laureano (.355/.487/.710), Danny Valencia (.409/.519/.682), and Christian Villanueva (.286/.412/.536) also had outstanding chapters.
On the flip side, Andrew Benintendi was all but useless in Chapter Five, hitting just .152/.227/.182. Francisco Cervelli had been clutch for us all season until last chapter. He hit just .194/.296/.226. Hunter Renfroe (.227/.280/.636) continues to be useless except for the occasional home run. Rafael Devers went just 3-for-24 while filling in for Justin Turner at third. And Odubel Herrera (0-for-11) continues to play his way off the postseason roster.
Our bullpen was, once again, the strength of our pitching staff in Chapter Five. Rich Rodriguez (0.75 ERA in 12 IP), Ryan Brasier (1.00 in 9), Pedro Strop (1.08 in 8+), and Taylor Rogers (1.80 in 15) were all on their "A" games in Chapter Five.
In the starting rotation, Clay Buchholz (2-1, 1.23 ERA in 22 IP) stepped up his game, but was inadvertently overused. As a result, we'll only see him start one game in the final chapter. Jon Gray (2-1, 2.79 ERA in 29 IP) continues to impress and exceed expectations by leaps and bounds.
On the flip side, Sonny Gray (7.25 ERA in 22+ IP) was an absolute disaster on the hill, reversing his surprising performance over the first four chapters. Mike Montgomery (6.75 ERA in 18+) was the almost-hero of that 21-inning marathon against Los Altos, but was unfairly stuck with some ugly numbers to end the chapter.
Our 2020 season is taking shape, and with nearly a full month remaining on the MLB regular season calendar, a lot can happen from here on out. You may recall how our entire team went into a collective slump in September of last year, seemingly destroying any chance we had of competing in 2019. (Boy, did that prediction age poorly.)
As it currently stands, it looks as though Rafael Devers will be our MVP. He's hitting .318/.367/.575, with 48 doubles and 29 homers. Justin Turner (.292/.370/.518, 27 HR) is having an excellent year as well. Jose Ramirez (.254/.325/.463) finally turned his game around after his massive first-half slump...and then proceeded to injure himself for the rest of the season. Our problem is that all three of those players will most likely be rated only at third base. We'll need to do something about that this winter.
Trea Turner (.298/.357/.480, 13 HR, 31 SB) is having another good all-around year. Andrew Benintendi (.281/.356/.462) has been a disappointment, but is still useful to have in the lineup and in the field. Ramon Laureano (.284/.334/.518, 21 HR) was enjoying a breakout year before he, too, injured himself for an extended period. (Although he's back now.) We still haven't figured out what we'll do with Shohei Ohtani (.286/.344/.492), but he seems too good to just let him rot on the reserve roster or bench all year.
Hunter Renfroe has hit a career-high 31 home runs, but is batting only .224 with a .293 OBP. Our catching situation hasn't played out the way we had hoped. Francisco Cervelli (.223/.309/.322) was in a massive slump before he concussed his way out of the game for several months. Danny Jansen (.208/.280/.366) began the season in a massive slump and stayed in that slump for the next five months. Thank god we managed to pick up Tom Murphy (.275/.312/.573, 17 HR) off of the free agent scrap heap.
On the pitching side, Jon Gray (150 IP, 3.84 ERA) was shaping up to be our ace before he...yep, you guessed it...injured himself for the rest of the year. Thankfully, his brother Sonny (151+ IP, 2.80 ERA) has picked up the slack and has been one of the better pitchers in baseball in the second half. Of course, we also have franchise pitcher Stephen Strasburg (179 IP, 3.47 ERA) returning for another year of schizophrenic performance. If Mike Montgomery (73+ IP, 4.42 ERA) keeps pitching well for his new MLB team, we may see him in the rotation as well.
Anibal Sanchez (140 IP, 4.11 ERA) was beginning to look like a possible front-end starter until his last disastrous outing completely destroyed his overall numbers. Steven Matz (133+ IP, 4.04) has had a very Steven Matz-like season. Clay Buchholz (36+ IP, 5.45 ERA) is probably going to end up costing us to release him. Trevor Cahill (94+ IP, 6.20 ERA), who we foolishly signed through 2021, will definitely cost us. Daniel Norris (132+ IP, 4.76 ERA) looks like he won't fulfill his potential until his contract ends with us after 2021. I don't know what we'll do with Felix Pena (96+ IP, 4.58 ERA), who also managed to injure himself for the entire remainder of the season.
Our bullpen currently consists of three Minnesota Twins: Taylor Rogers (60+ IP, 2.52 ERA), Trevor May (53+ IP, 3.21 ERA), and the newly-acquired Ryne Harper (49+ IP, 3.62 ERA).
We only lost two series last chapter. Sadly enough, one was to Akron and the other was against Los Altos. This does not bode well for our fate in the coming Tournament of Randomness.
Our franchise record for wins in a season is 112, which means we'd need to win an improbable 21 games in the final chapter to tie that record. We're only nine wins away from 100 wins, which would be the eighth time we reached that figure in the league's 21-year history. It would be our first 100-win season since 2014, and only our second 100-win season since 2008. Of course, it would also be our first division title since '08 as well.
Hitters of the Chapter
Jose Ramirez seemed to fall into a slump during our ill-fated rematch with Los Altos last chapter, but his overall numbers for the chapter were impressive: .279/.401/.577, 8 HR, and a team-leading 29 runs created. Trea Turner (.333/.417/.465, with 19 stolen bases) enjoyed an impressive chapter as well. As did Travis Shaw (.273/.408/.558.) Each of those three players created 20 or more runs on the chapter.
The other newcomer to our roster, Brandon Nimmo (.316/.402/.500) began paying dividends for us last chapter. Justin Turner (.322/.363/.456) broke out of his mini slump. Kike Hernandez hit only .216/.310/.534 for the chapter, but tied Ramirez with eight home runs in Chapter Five. Ramon Laureano (.355/.487/.710), Danny Valencia (.409/.519/.682), and Christian Villanueva (.286/.412/.536) also had outstanding chapters.
On the flip side, Andrew Benintendi was all but useless in Chapter Five, hitting just .152/.227/.182. Francisco Cervelli had been clutch for us all season until last chapter. He hit just .194/.296/.226. Hunter Renfroe (.227/.280/.636) continues to be useless except for the occasional home run. Rafael Devers went just 3-for-24 while filling in for Justin Turner at third. And Odubel Herrera (0-for-11) continues to play his way off the postseason roster.
Pitchers of the Chapter
Our bullpen was, once again, the strength of our pitching staff in Chapter Five. Rich Rodriguez (0.75 ERA in 12 IP), Ryan Brasier (1.00 in 9), Pedro Strop (1.08 in 8+), and Taylor Rogers (1.80 in 15) were all on their "A" games in Chapter Five.
In the starting rotation, Clay Buchholz (2-1, 1.23 ERA in 22 IP) stepped up his game, but was inadvertently overused. As a result, we'll only see him start one game in the final chapter. Jon Gray (2-1, 2.79 ERA in 29 IP) continues to impress and exceed expectations by leaps and bounds.
On the flip side, Sonny Gray (7.25 ERA in 22+ IP) was an absolute disaster on the hill, reversing his surprising performance over the first four chapters. Mike Montgomery (6.75 ERA in 18+) was the almost-hero of that 21-inning marathon against Los Altos, but was unfairly stuck with some ugly numbers to end the chapter.
Looking Ahead
Our 2020 season is taking shape, and with nearly a full month remaining on the MLB regular season calendar, a lot can happen from here on out. You may recall how our entire team went into a collective slump in September of last year, seemingly destroying any chance we had of competing in 2019. (Boy, did that prediction age poorly.)
As it currently stands, it looks as though Rafael Devers will be our MVP. He's hitting .318/.367/.575, with 48 doubles and 29 homers. Justin Turner (.292/.370/.518, 27 HR) is having an excellent year as well. Jose Ramirez (.254/.325/.463) finally turned his game around after his massive first-half slump...and then proceeded to injure himself for the rest of the season. Our problem is that all three of those players will most likely be rated only at third base. We'll need to do something about that this winter.
Trea Turner (.298/.357/.480, 13 HR, 31 SB) is having another good all-around year. Andrew Benintendi (.281/.356/.462) has been a disappointment, but is still useful to have in the lineup and in the field. Ramon Laureano (.284/.334/.518, 21 HR) was enjoying a breakout year before he, too, injured himself for an extended period. (Although he's back now.) We still haven't figured out what we'll do with Shohei Ohtani (.286/.344/.492), but he seems too good to just let him rot on the reserve roster or bench all year.
Hunter Renfroe has hit a career-high 31 home runs, but is batting only .224 with a .293 OBP. Our catching situation hasn't played out the way we had hoped. Francisco Cervelli (.223/.309/.322) was in a massive slump before he concussed his way out of the game for several months. Danny Jansen (.208/.280/.366) began the season in a massive slump and stayed in that slump for the next five months. Thank god we managed to pick up Tom Murphy (.275/.312/.573, 17 HR) off of the free agent scrap heap.
On the pitching side, Jon Gray (150 IP, 3.84 ERA) was shaping up to be our ace before he...yep, you guessed it...injured himself for the rest of the year. Thankfully, his brother Sonny (151+ IP, 2.80 ERA) has picked up the slack and has been one of the better pitchers in baseball in the second half. Of course, we also have franchise pitcher Stephen Strasburg (179 IP, 3.47 ERA) returning for another year of schizophrenic performance. If Mike Montgomery (73+ IP, 4.42 ERA) keeps pitching well for his new MLB team, we may see him in the rotation as well.
Anibal Sanchez (140 IP, 4.11 ERA) was beginning to look like a possible front-end starter until his last disastrous outing completely destroyed his overall numbers. Steven Matz (133+ IP, 4.04) has had a very Steven Matz-like season. Clay Buchholz (36+ IP, 5.45 ERA) is probably going to end up costing us to release him. Trevor Cahill (94+ IP, 6.20 ERA), who we foolishly signed through 2021, will definitely cost us. Daniel Norris (132+ IP, 4.76 ERA) looks like he won't fulfill his potential until his contract ends with us after 2021. I don't know what we'll do with Felix Pena (96+ IP, 4.58 ERA), who also managed to injure himself for the entire remainder of the season.
Our bullpen currently consists of three Minnesota Twins: Taylor Rogers (60+ IP, 2.52 ERA), Trevor May (53+ IP, 3.21 ERA), and the newly-acquired Ryne Harper (49+ IP, 3.62 ERA).
Thursday, July 18, 2019
Chapter Four Review
After three chapters of good, but not great, performance, the Salem Cowtippers turned the dial up to eleven in Chapter Four. If we have ever had a chapter where we won over 83% of our games, I don't remember it. Of course, I don't remember many things these days.
We went 20-4 on the chapter, which pushes our season record to 73-31. This puts us on pace to win 112 games, which would tie our franchise record, set way, way, back in 2002. This, coming from a team that I had assumed would be in rebuilding mode a year ago.
Of course, the highlight of our chapter was the four-game sweep of the world-dominating Los Altos Undertakers -- in their home ballpark! I a team could ever make a "statement", that would definitely be a strong one. Of course, the (well-earned) pessimist that I am, I see this as the Baseball Gods' way of setting us up for an epic failure in the postseason, when these games actually mean something.
For now, we bask in the glow of a very fulfilling chapter, and look forward to seeing what this team can do over the final fifty-six games.
For three chapters, the Salem Cowtippers couldn't hit for shit. But in Chapter Four, the bats finally awoke from their slumber. We hit .260/.357/.475 as a team, with 37 home runs and 146 runs scored (an average of over six per game.)
Christian Villanueva (.353/.476/.824) continued his season-long tear. Francisco Cervelli (.265/.403/.510) was solid as always. Andrew Benintendi (.349/.413/.602) broke out in a huge way. As did -- FINALLY! -- Justin Turner (.323/.421/.462). Jose Ramirez (.267/.402/.633) led the team in homers (9), RBI (19), and runs created (25.4).
The new guy, Travis Shaw (.288/.449/.678), hit the ground running, but the other new guy, Brandon Nimmo (.204/.359/.347) struggled in his Salem debut.
Even the backups performed well in Chapter Four. Evan Gattis (.276/.364/.690), Rafael Devers (.455/.500/.636 in 11 AB), and -- get this! -- Mitch Moreland (!?!?) (.333/.400/.833 in 12 AB) performed well in small samples.
On the mound, I have to begin with the performance of our bullpen in Chapter Four, which was simply incredible. Trevor May, Shohei Ohtani, newcomer Oliver Perez, Rich Rodriguez, and Pedro Strop tossed 36+ innings last chapter and didn't allow a single run.
Our #8 starter, Jon Gray, who wasn't even supposed to pitch for us this season, went 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his two starts. In 16 innings, he allowed just 8 hits and 3 walks, with a dozen strikeouts.
Clay Buchholz (1-0, 2.05 ERA in 22 IP), Mike Montgomery (0-1, 2.38 in 11+), Taylor Rogers (1-0, 2.53 in 10+), Jonathan Holder (2.61 in 10+), Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.76 in 16+), Stephen Strasburg (3-0, 2.84 in 25+), and even Anibal Sanchez (!) (2-1, 2.88 in 25) were all outstanding as well.
Odubel Herrera (.226/.339/.321) posted numbers that were almost identical to Nimmo's -- although Herrera's subpar performance was no surprise. He's been subpar for several years now.
Danny Valencia (.222/.250/.370) finally came back to earth after three insane chapters. Shohei Ohtani (.227/.320/.318) also seriously regressed after turning up the heat in Chapters Two and Three.
Trea Turner (.242/.300/.384) was a disappointment, and was Enrique Hernandez (.245/.235/.429), although both had their moments in Chapter Four.
Felix Pena (5.28 ERA in 3 starts) and Trevor Cahill (5.87 in 3 starts) were both pretty bad in Chapter Four...and yet they went 4-1 combined!
Man, Hunter Renfroe (.200/.273/.375) is just never going to start hitting this year, is he? I figured with the difference in ballpark factors, he'd be a surprise contributor for us this year. Boy, was I wrong!
Now that the MLB all-star game is in the rearview, we can take a peek ahead to see what may lie in store for us in 2020. The 2020 team begins with a guy we very nearly traded earlier this year: Rafael Devers. The 22-year-old is having a breakout season (.326/.380/.558) and looks as though he will be the centerpiece of our team.
Surrounding Devers in the lineup,we have Justin Turner (.295/.372/.467), Andrew Benintendi (.268/.346/.425), Hunter Renfroe (.249/.312/.591, with 27 HR), Ramon Laureano (.274/.324/.501), and Trea Turner (.280/.340/.474). The biggest waste is Shohei Ohtani (.303/.361/.546), who has no position. He will either be the best pinch hitter in the BDBL next year or the biggest defensive liability somewhere in the field.
At this point, Jose Ramirez (.232/.314/.370) looks like an expensive cut, but you never know. He's finally beginning to hit in the month of July. If he finishes strong, we may be able to use him.
The catching position, which was supposed to be our strength in 2020, looks like a black hole at this point. Francisco Cervelli has had a season-long concussion, and Danny Jansen seems to be suffering from amnesia, as he's forgotten how to hit a baseball. Thank god for scrap heap pickup Tom Murphy (.268/.304/.520). Looking back, I guess we should have taken Jason Castro in the draft. Not only would we have a decent catcher, but we would have kept him off of the Los Altos roster.
On the mound, it looks like Stephen Strasburg (122-99-13-30-144) will be our ace. Jon Gray (120-122-17-45-124) and his evil step-cousin Sonny (103-81-11-36-120) are solid mid-rotation arms. Anibal Sanchez (90-84-13-35-77) has also pitched well of late.
With Trevor Cahill (6.56 ERA), Clay Buchholz (6.57), Steven Matz (4.87), Daniel Norris (5.14), and Mike Montgomery (5.67) all sucking major monkey nuts, they all look to be expensive cuts this coming winter. The jury is still out on Felix Pena (4.92), who has been up and down all season long.
In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers (1.69) looks like our closer. Ryan Brasier (4.24) looks like a cut at this point. Jonathan Holder (6.81) has been an absolute trainwreck. But Richard Rodriguez (3.48), Trevor May (3.79), and the newly-acquired Ryne Harper (2.79) could contribute to the cause.
We went 20-4 on the chapter, which pushes our season record to 73-31. This puts us on pace to win 112 games, which would tie our franchise record, set way, way, back in 2002. This, coming from a team that I had assumed would be in rebuilding mode a year ago.
Of course, the highlight of our chapter was the four-game sweep of the world-dominating Los Altos Undertakers -- in their home ballpark! I a team could ever make a "statement", that would definitely be a strong one. Of course, the (well-earned) pessimist that I am, I see this as the Baseball Gods' way of setting us up for an epic failure in the postseason, when these games actually mean something.
For now, we bask in the glow of a very fulfilling chapter, and look forward to seeing what this team can do over the final fifty-six games.
The Good
For three chapters, the Salem Cowtippers couldn't hit for shit. But in Chapter Four, the bats finally awoke from their slumber. We hit .260/.357/.475 as a team, with 37 home runs and 146 runs scored (an average of over six per game.)
Christian Villanueva (.353/.476/.824) continued his season-long tear. Francisco Cervelli (.265/.403/.510) was solid as always. Andrew Benintendi (.349/.413/.602) broke out in a huge way. As did -- FINALLY! -- Justin Turner (.323/.421/.462). Jose Ramirez (.267/.402/.633) led the team in homers (9), RBI (19), and runs created (25.4).
The new guy, Travis Shaw (.288/.449/.678), hit the ground running, but the other new guy, Brandon Nimmo (.204/.359/.347) struggled in his Salem debut.
Even the backups performed well in Chapter Four. Evan Gattis (.276/.364/.690), Rafael Devers (.455/.500/.636 in 11 AB), and -- get this! -- Mitch Moreland (!?!?) (.333/.400/.833 in 12 AB) performed well in small samples.
On the mound, I have to begin with the performance of our bullpen in Chapter Four, which was simply incredible. Trevor May, Shohei Ohtani, newcomer Oliver Perez, Rich Rodriguez, and Pedro Strop tossed 36+ innings last chapter and didn't allow a single run.
Our #8 starter, Jon Gray, who wasn't even supposed to pitch for us this season, went 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his two starts. In 16 innings, he allowed just 8 hits and 3 walks, with a dozen strikeouts.
Clay Buchholz (1-0, 2.05 ERA in 22 IP), Mike Montgomery (0-1, 2.38 in 11+), Taylor Rogers (1-0, 2.53 in 10+), Jonathan Holder (2.61 in 10+), Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.76 in 16+), Stephen Strasburg (3-0, 2.84 in 25+), and even Anibal Sanchez (!) (2-1, 2.88 in 25) were all outstanding as well.
The Bad
Odubel Herrera (.226/.339/.321) posted numbers that were almost identical to Nimmo's -- although Herrera's subpar performance was no surprise. He's been subpar for several years now.
Danny Valencia (.222/.250/.370) finally came back to earth after three insane chapters. Shohei Ohtani (.227/.320/.318) also seriously regressed after turning up the heat in Chapters Two and Three.
Trea Turner (.242/.300/.384) was a disappointment, and was Enrique Hernandez (.245/.235/.429), although both had their moments in Chapter Four.
Felix Pena (5.28 ERA in 3 starts) and Trevor Cahill (5.87 in 3 starts) were both pretty bad in Chapter Four...and yet they went 4-1 combined!
The Ugly
Man, Hunter Renfroe (.200/.273/.375) is just never going to start hitting this year, is he? I figured with the difference in ballpark factors, he'd be a surprise contributor for us this year. Boy, was I wrong!
Looking Ahead to 2020
Now that the MLB all-star game is in the rearview, we can take a peek ahead to see what may lie in store for us in 2020. The 2020 team begins with a guy we very nearly traded earlier this year: Rafael Devers. The 22-year-old is having a breakout season (.326/.380/.558) and looks as though he will be the centerpiece of our team.
Surrounding Devers in the lineup,we have Justin Turner (.295/.372/.467), Andrew Benintendi (.268/.346/.425), Hunter Renfroe (.249/.312/.591, with 27 HR), Ramon Laureano (.274/.324/.501), and Trea Turner (.280/.340/.474). The biggest waste is Shohei Ohtani (.303/.361/.546), who has no position. He will either be the best pinch hitter in the BDBL next year or the biggest defensive liability somewhere in the field.
At this point, Jose Ramirez (.232/.314/.370) looks like an expensive cut, but you never know. He's finally beginning to hit in the month of July. If he finishes strong, we may be able to use him.
The catching position, which was supposed to be our strength in 2020, looks like a black hole at this point. Francisco Cervelli has had a season-long concussion, and Danny Jansen seems to be suffering from amnesia, as he's forgotten how to hit a baseball. Thank god for scrap heap pickup Tom Murphy (.268/.304/.520). Looking back, I guess we should have taken Jason Castro in the draft. Not only would we have a decent catcher, but we would have kept him off of the Los Altos roster.
On the mound, it looks like Stephen Strasburg (122-99-13-30-144) will be our ace. Jon Gray (120-122-17-45-124) and his evil step-cousin Sonny (103-81-11-36-120) are solid mid-rotation arms. Anibal Sanchez (90-84-13-35-77) has also pitched well of late.
With Trevor Cahill (6.56 ERA), Clay Buchholz (6.57), Steven Matz (4.87), Daniel Norris (5.14), and Mike Montgomery (5.67) all sucking major monkey nuts, they all look to be expensive cuts this coming winter. The jury is still out on Felix Pena (4.92), who has been up and down all season long.
In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers (1.69) looks like our closer. Ryan Brasier (4.24) looks like a cut at this point. Jonathan Holder (6.81) has been an absolute trainwreck. But Richard Rodriguez (3.48), Trevor May (3.79), and the newly-acquired Ryne Harper (2.79) could contribute to the cause.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Midyear Report Card
We have officially reached the halfway mark in the 2019 season, which means it's time to evaluate where we stand and where we're heading. We currently sit five games ahead of the Joplin Miners in the McGowan Division and own the third-largest runs differential (+97) in the Ozzie League. Our .663 winning percentage is topped only by the ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers, who are on pace for 115+ wins for the fourth time in the past five years.
If the season ended today, we'd be stuck with facing the most dominant team (by runs differential) in the BDBL, the Akron Ryche, in the OLDS. We've only played one series against Akron so far, and managed to split that one. Needless to say, the outcome of any short series between two such evenly-matched teams would depend entirely on random dice rolls (more so than usual.) To that end, we did as much as we could to prepare for the Tournament of Randomness by plugging some major holes in our roster through three trades made in the past four weeks.
When the season began, we initially planned to acquire one of the Big Three (Max Scherzer, Christian Yelich, or Mike Trout), and we were prepared to sacrifice Rafael Devers and/or Nick Madrigal to get us that player. However, as the season progressed, we realized we needed more than one player. Acquiring any one of those three would have eaten up most of our VORP cap. And sacrificing Devers or Madrigal became less palatable. So we pivoted to Plan B.
Trade #1: Corbin Carroll to the Myrtle Beach Hitmen for Travis Shaw.
We are hitting just .230/.315/.400 against right-handed pitching this year despite having seven full-time players on our roster with a .780+ OPS against righties. Three black holes in our lineup have dragged down the entire team against right-handers: Odubel Herrera (.231/.289/.361 vs. RH), Hunter Renfroe (.190/.245/.354), and Mitch Moreland (.160/.275/.266). Each of those three owns an OPS against righties that is more than 200 points below where it should be.
It seems logical to assume that a great deal of regression is in order, and eventually, all three of those players will perform as well as they should. But what if they don't? That is a risk we can't afford to take. To that end, we picked up Shaw (.309/.389/.648 vs. RH for MBH), who will immediately replace Moreland in the lineup.
In addition to sacrificing Carroll (the 16th overall pick in last week's MLB draft), we will also likely have to pay $2.5 million to get rid of Shaw in December. It is a price worth paying if Shaw hits as well for us as he had for Myrtle Beach.
Trade #2: Jalen Beeks to South Carolina for Brandon Nimmo.
Even after adding Shaw, we still had two massive holes in our lineup. Other than Yelich and Shaw, Nimmo (.259/.402/.486 vs. RH for SCS) was the best hitter against right-handed pitching that is likely to become available in trade this year. We seem to have enough pitching depth (at this point) to deal Beeks, and Nimmo's poor (and injury-plagued) 2019 MLB season made him a logical target.
We still have one hole in our lineup, but it's better than having three. The best we can do is hope there is enough regression from Herrera and Renfroe to give us a viable platoon against righties.
This deal had the added side benefit of blocking Max Scherzer from pitching for Akron or any other contender we might face in the postseason.
Trade #3: Will Smith to the Great Lakes Sphinx for Oliver Perez.
We believe Perez is the most dominant pitcher in this game, inning for inning. The problem is that he didn't pitch a lot of innings in MLB last year. That problem, however, works in our favor, as this kept his VORP low enough that we could afford to add him in addition to the other pieces we needed for our lineup.
We know we sacrificed too much in this deal. Smith is not only an excellent defensive catcher, but he will hit better than most catchers in his MLB career over the next decade or so. We sacrificed a decade of production for roughly 29 innings, plus whatever Perez gives us in the postseason. But with Cervelli and Jansen occupying the catcher's position next year (if they can pull their heads out of their asses and snap out of their slumps), and Adley Rutschman occupying that position for the next decade thereafter, we felt we were playing with house money. The only problem with adding Perez is that it means some quality pitcher will be left off the postseason roster. But that is a good problem to have.
Now, on to the midyear report cards. These grades are based on how well each player has performed in relation to his expectations.
A+: Christian Villanueva (.373/.419/1.090, 15 HR in only 67 AB)
A+: Danny Valencia (.389/.458/.708, with 14.0 RC/27)
A+: Shohei Ohtani (.345/.402/.548 as a hitter, 2.51 ERA in 28+ IP as a pitcher)
A+: Ryan Brasier (0.57 ERA in 15+ IP)
A+: Pedro Strop (0.72 ERA in 37+ IP)
A: Taylor Rogers (1.83 ERA in 39+ IP)
A: Jonathan Holder (1.98 ERA in 36+ IP)
A: Rich Rodriguez (2.43 ERA in 40+ IP, vs. LH: .057/.143/.071)
B: Ramon Laureano (.264/.347/.483 in 87 AB)
B: Steven Matz (2-1, 3.25 ERA in 36+ IP)
B: Trevor Cahill (6-3, 3.25 ERA in 63+ IP)
B: Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.83 ERA in 56+ IP)
B: Jon Gray (3-0, 4.07 ERA in 24+ IP)
C: Trea Turner (.272/.329/.427, 9 HR, 44.6 RC, 23 SB, 6 CS)
C: Andrew Benintendi (.258/.351/.471, 13 HR, 42.1 RC)
C: Francisco Cervelli (.254/.347/.432, 28.8 RC)
C: Matt Grace (3.18 ERA in 22+ IP)
C: Felix Pena (2-2, 4.01 ERA in 42+ IP)
C-: Evan Gattis (.246/.266/.434, 5 HR in 122 AB)
C-: Jose Ramirez (.232/.366/.500, 18 HR, 57.6 RC)
D: Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.42 ERA in 55+ IP)
D: Stephen Strasburg (5-5, 3.91 ERA in 76 IP)
D: Justin Turner (.253/.366/.382, 5 HR, 26.2 RC)
D-: Mike Montgomery (5-2, 4.76 ERA in 51 IP)
D-: Odubel Herrera (.222/.271/.335, 5 HR, 21.1 RC)
D-: Rafael Devers (.208/.281/.417, 3.1 RC/27)
F: Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 4.91 ERA in 66 IP)
F: Enrique Hernandez (.208/.306/.458, 12 HR, 25.8 RC)
F: Hunter Renfroe (.195/.243/.372, 10 HR, 3.0 RC/27)
F: Mitch Moreland (.187/.298/.293, 3.1 RC/27)
If the season ended today, we'd be stuck with facing the most dominant team (by runs differential) in the BDBL, the Akron Ryche, in the OLDS. We've only played one series against Akron so far, and managed to split that one. Needless to say, the outcome of any short series between two such evenly-matched teams would depend entirely on random dice rolls (more so than usual.) To that end, we did as much as we could to prepare for the Tournament of Randomness by plugging some major holes in our roster through three trades made in the past four weeks.
When the season began, we initially planned to acquire one of the Big Three (Max Scherzer, Christian Yelich, or Mike Trout), and we were prepared to sacrifice Rafael Devers and/or Nick Madrigal to get us that player. However, as the season progressed, we realized we needed more than one player. Acquiring any one of those three would have eaten up most of our VORP cap. And sacrificing Devers or Madrigal became less palatable. So we pivoted to Plan B.
Trade #1: Corbin Carroll to the Myrtle Beach Hitmen for Travis Shaw.
We are hitting just .230/.315/.400 against right-handed pitching this year despite having seven full-time players on our roster with a .780+ OPS against righties. Three black holes in our lineup have dragged down the entire team against right-handers: Odubel Herrera (.231/.289/.361 vs. RH), Hunter Renfroe (.190/.245/.354), and Mitch Moreland (.160/.275/.266). Each of those three owns an OPS against righties that is more than 200 points below where it should be.
It seems logical to assume that a great deal of regression is in order, and eventually, all three of those players will perform as well as they should. But what if they don't? That is a risk we can't afford to take. To that end, we picked up Shaw (.309/.389/.648 vs. RH for MBH), who will immediately replace Moreland in the lineup.
In addition to sacrificing Carroll (the 16th overall pick in last week's MLB draft), we will also likely have to pay $2.5 million to get rid of Shaw in December. It is a price worth paying if Shaw hits as well for us as he had for Myrtle Beach.
Trade #2: Jalen Beeks to South Carolina for Brandon Nimmo.
Even after adding Shaw, we still had two massive holes in our lineup. Other than Yelich and Shaw, Nimmo (.259/.402/.486 vs. RH for SCS) was the best hitter against right-handed pitching that is likely to become available in trade this year. We seem to have enough pitching depth (at this point) to deal Beeks, and Nimmo's poor (and injury-plagued) 2019 MLB season made him a logical target.
We still have one hole in our lineup, but it's better than having three. The best we can do is hope there is enough regression from Herrera and Renfroe to give us a viable platoon against righties.
This deal had the added side benefit of blocking Max Scherzer from pitching for Akron or any other contender we might face in the postseason.
Trade #3: Will Smith to the Great Lakes Sphinx for Oliver Perez.
We believe Perez is the most dominant pitcher in this game, inning for inning. The problem is that he didn't pitch a lot of innings in MLB last year. That problem, however, works in our favor, as this kept his VORP low enough that we could afford to add him in addition to the other pieces we needed for our lineup.
We know we sacrificed too much in this deal. Smith is not only an excellent defensive catcher, but he will hit better than most catchers in his MLB career over the next decade or so. We sacrificed a decade of production for roughly 29 innings, plus whatever Perez gives us in the postseason. But with Cervelli and Jansen occupying the catcher's position next year (if they can pull their heads out of their asses and snap out of their slumps), and Adley Rutschman occupying that position for the next decade thereafter, we felt we were playing with house money. The only problem with adding Perez is that it means some quality pitcher will be left off the postseason roster. But that is a good problem to have.
Now, on to the midyear report cards. These grades are based on how well each player has performed in relation to his expectations.
A+: Christian Villanueva (.373/.419/1.090, 15 HR in only 67 AB)
A+: Danny Valencia (.389/.458/.708, with 14.0 RC/27)
A+: Shohei Ohtani (.345/.402/.548 as a hitter, 2.51 ERA in 28+ IP as a pitcher)
A+: Ryan Brasier (0.57 ERA in 15+ IP)
A+: Pedro Strop (0.72 ERA in 37+ IP)
A: Taylor Rogers (1.83 ERA in 39+ IP)
A: Jonathan Holder (1.98 ERA in 36+ IP)
A: Rich Rodriguez (2.43 ERA in 40+ IP, vs. LH: .057/.143/.071)
B: Ramon Laureano (.264/.347/.483 in 87 AB)
B: Steven Matz (2-1, 3.25 ERA in 36+ IP)
B: Trevor Cahill (6-3, 3.25 ERA in 63+ IP)
B: Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.83 ERA in 56+ IP)
B: Jon Gray (3-0, 4.07 ERA in 24+ IP)
C: Trea Turner (.272/.329/.427, 9 HR, 44.6 RC, 23 SB, 6 CS)
C: Andrew Benintendi (.258/.351/.471, 13 HR, 42.1 RC)
C: Francisco Cervelli (.254/.347/.432, 28.8 RC)
C: Matt Grace (3.18 ERA in 22+ IP)
C: Felix Pena (2-2, 4.01 ERA in 42+ IP)
C-: Evan Gattis (.246/.266/.434, 5 HR in 122 AB)
C-: Jose Ramirez (.232/.366/.500, 18 HR, 57.6 RC)
D: Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.42 ERA in 55+ IP)
D: Stephen Strasburg (5-5, 3.91 ERA in 76 IP)
D: Justin Turner (.253/.366/.382, 5 HR, 26.2 RC)
D-: Mike Montgomery (5-2, 4.76 ERA in 51 IP)
D-: Odubel Herrera (.222/.271/.335, 5 HR, 21.1 RC)
D-: Rafael Devers (.208/.281/.417, 3.1 RC/27)
F: Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 4.91 ERA in 66 IP)
F: Enrique Hernandez (.208/.306/.458, 12 HR, 25.8 RC)
F: Hunter Renfroe (.195/.243/.372, 10 HR, 3.0 RC/27)
F: Mitch Moreland (.187/.298/.293, 3.1 RC/27)
Friday, April 19, 2019
Chapter Two Review
We wrapped up Chapter Two with a record of 18-10. We won four of the seven series we played, split against Joplin and Akron, and lost three of four to Los Altos. Our pitching staff stumbled a bit, but posted a respectable 3.67 ERA for the chapter. Our offense remains a complete and utter mystery. We are hitting just .231/.312/.418 as a team, one-third of the way into the season. We still have NINE players batting below .240, and two (Rafael Devers and Hunter Renfroe) who are still batting below .200.
If our offense doesn't pick up the pace in Chapter Three, we will be forced to make some tough sacrifices at the trading table. But then, what else is new?
The Good
After an absolutely horrendous first chapter, Shohei Ohtani has finally begun to hit. He batted .455/.500/.682, with his first home run of the season, in Chapter Two. Almost all of his hits came in the final three series of the season. If he can remain hot, it would be a huge benefit for this team, as we are absolutely starving for offense.
Christian Villanueva (.346/.346/.846 with 4 homers in Chapter Two) continues to mash the crap out of the ball against lefties, as does Danny Valencia (.409/.536/.818 with 3 homers). We hit .300/.356/.565 against lefties last chapter, largely thanks to those two.
Trea Turner (.306/.342/.407, with nine steals in ten attempts) continues to surpass expectations. Odubel Herrera (.289/.360/.500) likewise surprised with his second chapter performance. Enrique Hernandez (.254/.338/.576) and Jose Ramirez (.245/.379/.520) were no slouches, either.
On the pitching side, Ryan Brasier and Trevor May combined to pitch 13 shutout innings last chapter. Ohtani, Matt Grace, Rich Rodriguez, and Pedro Strop combined to allow just six earned runs in 38 innings (a 1.42 ERA.)
Felix Pena (2-0, 2.95 ERA) was our best starting pitcher last chapter. Sonny Gray (2-1, 3.38) was surprisingly the second-best.
The Bad
Clay Buchholz (1-1, 4.91 ERA) and Mike Montgomery (1-1, 5.06) were just about useless in Chapter Two. Go figure. Trevor Cahill (1-2, 5.63) and Stephen Strasburg (1-2, 5.75) were even more useless. And Taylor Rogers (5.23 ERA in 10+ IP) went from our best reliever to our worst.
Mitch Moreland (.244/.307/.385 last chapter) continues to be a black hole at first base, for the second year in a row. I really don't know why this game hates him so much. Likewise, Rafael Devers (.222/.265/.444) is just about useless at the other corner of the infield. Maybe the game just hates left-handed Red Sox?
The Ugly
Hunter F'ing Renfroe. Man alive. The dude went 2-for-14 (.194) last chapter, bringing his season batting average to -- get this -- .176. I don't understand what is happening with him, but our right field is becoming a huge problem area for us.
Evan Gattis (.192/.214/.269) was a beast in Chapter One, but he regressed HARD in Chapter Two. But that's nothing compared to Justin Turner. We paid $5.5 million for Turner, believing that he was the top hitter in the auction, PA-for-PA. Instead, he hit .169/.296/.271 in Chapter Two. Dude. You gotta be kidding me.
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Chapter One Review
It seems impossible, and yet it's true. The Cowtippers managed to win 19 games in Chapter One despite hitting .217/.304/.396 as a team, with only 114 runs scored (an average of 4.1 per game.) SIX members of our starting lineup batted below .200. I'm at a loss to explain this. I'd like to think it's a small-sample fluke, but I've been wrong too many times about that before. Instead, it may be only the beginning of a trend.
Thankfully, our pitching stepped it up enough to compensate for the pathetic performance of our offense. We posted a 2.82 ERA on the chapter, with only 7.2 hits allowed per nine, and held opponents to a league-low .626 OPS.
We currently sit just two games ahead of the Joplin Miners, but trail them by two games on the Pythagorean scale. This is thanks to the fact that we went a remarkable 8-1 in one-run games last chapter. We cannot expect that good fortune to continue forever, so something needs to give.
Danny Valencia (.407/.414/.815) and Christian Villanueva (.406/.459/1.313) were better than good. They were other-worldly. Although the two only amassed 27 and 32 at-bats, respectively, they contributed 12 homers and over 28 runs created. Put the two of them together, and they were our Chapter One MVP.
Justin Turner (.290/.408/.468) and Andrew Benintendi (.286/.398/.500) performed as well as we expected them to perform, which is a good thing considering they pretty much carried this team throughout the chapter. Evan Gattis (.300/.317/.600 in 40 AB) was also a surprising contributor.
On the hill, it's hard to know where to begin. Trevor Cahill (1.24 ERA in 29 IP), Clay Buchholz (1.33 ERA in 20+ IP), and Mike Montgomery (3.12 ERA in 23 IP) went a combined 9-0, accounting for nearly half our wins. Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 2.08 ERA in 26 IP) was also brilliant in his five starts.
In the bullpen, Ryan Brasier (5 IP, 0.00 ERA), Pedro Strop (17+ IP, 0.52 ERA), Jonathan Holder (15+ IP, 1.15 ERA), and Taylor Rogers (15+ IP, 1.15 ERA) combined to go 7-0 with seven saves.
We expected Rich Rodriguez to be our part-time closer heading into this season, but he has proven to be untrustworthy so far. In 14+ innings, he allowed 12 hits, 9 walks, 2 homers, and a 4.30 ERA.
What the hell happened to Jose Ramirez? Expected to be our MVP, he hit just .213/.353/.415 instead. He did draw more walks (19) than strikeouts (10), and stole eight bases in ten attempts, so he wasn't completely useless. Still, he was far from the MVP we expected -- and needed.
On the other hand, we did expect Trea Turner to struggle this season, given the difference in ballpark factors between MLB and BDBL. He met expectations by hitting just .252/.306/.408. Like Ramirez, he made himself useful by contributing eight extra-base hits and seven stolen bases.
Where to begin? Francisco Cervelli (.182), Enrique Hernandez (.161), Hunter Renfroe (.160), Mitch Moreland (.159), Rafael Devers (.158), and Odubel Herrera (.141) each hit below .200 last chapter. I can buy one or two or even three of those guys slumping at the same time, but all six? I suspect voodoo magic is somehow involved.
Anibal Sanchez should be our best starting pitcher. Instead, he did this: 0-2, 7.41 ERA, 17 IP, 19 H, 18 R, 14 ER, 5 BB, 16 K, 5 HR. That last figure is the one that really makes zero sense whatsoever. Sanchez allowed 15 homers in 136+ innings in MLB last year. He's already one-third of the way to that total after only twelve percent of the innings.
Felix Pena (0-2, 7.00 ERA in 9 IP) also was no bueno.
Shohei Ohtani deserves his own category. We gave him 25 pinch-hit plate appearances last chapter. Here is what he did with those 25 opportunities: 2 hits, 1 double, 0 runs, 0 RBI's, 2 walks, 6 K's, 0 SB, 1 CS. Guys...what the actual fuck? Seriously.
Thankfully, our pitching stepped it up enough to compensate for the pathetic performance of our offense. We posted a 2.82 ERA on the chapter, with only 7.2 hits allowed per nine, and held opponents to a league-low .626 OPS.
We currently sit just two games ahead of the Joplin Miners, but trail them by two games on the Pythagorean scale. This is thanks to the fact that we went a remarkable 8-1 in one-run games last chapter. We cannot expect that good fortune to continue forever, so something needs to give.
The Good
Danny Valencia (.407/.414/.815) and Christian Villanueva (.406/.459/1.313) were better than good. They were other-worldly. Although the two only amassed 27 and 32 at-bats, respectively, they contributed 12 homers and over 28 runs created. Put the two of them together, and they were our Chapter One MVP.
Justin Turner (.290/.408/.468) and Andrew Benintendi (.286/.398/.500) performed as well as we expected them to perform, which is a good thing considering they pretty much carried this team throughout the chapter. Evan Gattis (.300/.317/.600 in 40 AB) was also a surprising contributor.
On the hill, it's hard to know where to begin. Trevor Cahill (1.24 ERA in 29 IP), Clay Buchholz (1.33 ERA in 20+ IP), and Mike Montgomery (3.12 ERA in 23 IP) went a combined 9-0, accounting for nearly half our wins. Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 2.08 ERA in 26 IP) was also brilliant in his five starts.
In the bullpen, Ryan Brasier (5 IP, 0.00 ERA), Pedro Strop (17+ IP, 0.52 ERA), Jonathan Holder (15+ IP, 1.15 ERA), and Taylor Rogers (15+ IP, 1.15 ERA) combined to go 7-0 with seven saves.
The Bad
We expected Rich Rodriguez to be our part-time closer heading into this season, but he has proven to be untrustworthy so far. In 14+ innings, he allowed 12 hits, 9 walks, 2 homers, and a 4.30 ERA.
What the hell happened to Jose Ramirez? Expected to be our MVP, he hit just .213/.353/.415 instead. He did draw more walks (19) than strikeouts (10), and stole eight bases in ten attempts, so he wasn't completely useless. Still, he was far from the MVP we expected -- and needed.
On the other hand, we did expect Trea Turner to struggle this season, given the difference in ballpark factors between MLB and BDBL. He met expectations by hitting just .252/.306/.408. Like Ramirez, he made himself useful by contributing eight extra-base hits and seven stolen bases.
The Ugly
Where to begin? Francisco Cervelli (.182), Enrique Hernandez (.161), Hunter Renfroe (.160), Mitch Moreland (.159), Rafael Devers (.158), and Odubel Herrera (.141) each hit below .200 last chapter. I can buy one or two or even three of those guys slumping at the same time, but all six? I suspect voodoo magic is somehow involved.
Anibal Sanchez should be our best starting pitcher. Instead, he did this: 0-2, 7.41 ERA, 17 IP, 19 H, 18 R, 14 ER, 5 BB, 16 K, 5 HR. That last figure is the one that really makes zero sense whatsoever. Sanchez allowed 15 homers in 136+ innings in MLB last year. He's already one-third of the way to that total after only twelve percent of the innings.
Felix Pena (0-2, 7.00 ERA in 9 IP) also was no bueno.
The Really, REALLY, Ugly
Shohei Ohtani deserves his own category. We gave him 25 pinch-hit plate appearances last chapter. Here is what he did with those 25 opportunities: 2 hits, 1 double, 0 runs, 0 RBI's, 2 walks, 6 K's, 0 SB, 1 CS. Guys...what the actual fuck? Seriously.
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