Chapter Four Review

After three chapters of good, but not great, performance, the Salem Cowtippers turned the dial up to eleven in Chapter Four. If we have ever had a chapter where we won over 83% of our games, I don't remember it. Of course, I don't remember many things these days.

We went 20-4 on the chapter, which pushes our season record to 73-31. This puts us on pace to win 112 games, which would tie our franchise record, set way, way, back in 2002. This, coming from a team that I had assumed would be in rebuilding mode a year ago.

Of course, the highlight of our chapter was the four-game sweep of the world-dominating Los Altos Undertakers -- in their home ballpark! I a team could ever make a "statement", that would definitely be a strong one. Of course, the (well-earned) pessimist that I am, I see this as the Baseball Gods' way of setting us up for an epic failure in the postseason, when these games actually mean something.

For now, we bask in the glow of a very fulfilling chapter, and look forward to seeing what this team can do over the final fifty-six games.

The Good

For three chapters, the Salem Cowtippers couldn't hit for shit. But in Chapter Four, the bats finally awoke from their slumber. We hit .260/.357/.475 as a team, with 37 home runs and 146 runs scored (an average of over six per game.)

Christian Villanueva (.353/.476/.824) continued his season-long tear. Francisco Cervelli (.265/.403/.510) was solid as always. Andrew Benintendi (.349/.413/.602) broke out in a huge way. As did -- FINALLY! -- Justin Turner (.323/.421/.462). Jose Ramirez (.267/.402/.633) led the team in homers (9), RBI (19), and runs created (25.4).

The new guy, Travis Shaw (.288/.449/.678), hit the ground running, but the other new guy, Brandon Nimmo (.204/.359/.347) struggled in his Salem debut.

Even the backups performed well in Chapter Four. Evan Gattis (.276/.364/.690), Rafael Devers (.455/.500/.636 in 11 AB), and -- get this! -- Mitch Moreland (!?!?) (.333/.400/.833 in 12 AB) performed well in small samples.

On the mound, I have to begin with the performance of our bullpen in Chapter Four, which was simply incredible. Trevor May, Shohei Ohtani, newcomer Oliver Perez, Rich Rodriguez, and Pedro Strop tossed 36+ innings last chapter and didn't allow a single run.

Our #8 starter, Jon Gray, who wasn't even supposed to pitch for us this season, went 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his two starts. In 16 innings, he allowed just 8 hits and 3 walks, with a dozen strikeouts.

Clay Buchholz (1-0, 2.05 ERA in 22 IP), Mike Montgomery (0-1, 2.38 in 11+), Taylor Rogers (1-0, 2.53 in 10+), Jonathan Holder (2.61 in 10+), Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.76 in 16+), Stephen Strasburg (3-0, 2.84 in 25+), and even Anibal Sanchez (!) (2-1, 2.88 in 25) were all outstanding as well.

The Bad

Odubel Herrera (.226/.339/.321) posted numbers that were almost identical to Nimmo's -- although Herrera's subpar performance was no surprise. He's been subpar for several years now.

Danny Valencia (.222/.250/.370) finally came back to earth after three insane chapters. Shohei Ohtani (.227/.320/.318) also seriously regressed after turning up the heat in Chapters Two and Three.

Trea Turner (.242/.300/.384) was a disappointment, and was Enrique Hernandez (.245/.235/.429), although both had their moments in Chapter Four.

Felix Pena (5.28 ERA in 3 starts) and Trevor Cahill (5.87 in 3 starts) were both pretty bad in Chapter Four...and yet they went 4-1 combined!

The Ugly

Man, Hunter Renfroe (.200/.273/.375) is just never going to start hitting this year, is he? I figured with the difference in ballpark factors, he'd be a surprise contributor for us this year. Boy, was I wrong!

Looking Ahead to 2020

Now that the MLB all-star game is in the rearview, we can take a peek ahead to see what may lie in store for us in 2020. The 2020 team begins with a guy we very nearly traded earlier this year: Rafael Devers. The 22-year-old is having a breakout season (.326/.380/.558) and looks as though he will be the centerpiece of our team.

Surrounding Devers in the lineup,we have Justin Turner (.295/.372/.467), Andrew Benintendi (.268/.346/.425), Hunter Renfroe (.249/.312/.591, with 27 HR), Ramon Laureano (.274/.324/.501), and Trea Turner (.280/.340/.474). The biggest waste is Shohei Ohtani (.303/.361/.546), who has no position. He will either be the best pinch hitter in the BDBL next year or the biggest defensive liability somewhere in the field.

At this point, Jose Ramirez (.232/.314/.370) looks like an expensive cut, but you never know. He's finally beginning to hit in the month of July. If he finishes strong, we may be able to use him.

The catching position, which was supposed to be our strength in 2020, looks like a black hole at this point. Francisco Cervelli has had a season-long concussion, and Danny Jansen seems to be suffering from amnesia, as he's forgotten how to hit a baseball. Thank god for scrap heap pickup Tom Murphy (.268/.304/.520). Looking back, I guess we should have taken Jason Castro in the draft. Not only would we have a decent catcher, but we would have kept him off of the Los Altos roster.

On the mound, it looks like Stephen Strasburg (122-99-13-30-144) will be our ace. Jon Gray (120-122-17-45-124) and his evil step-cousin Sonny (103-81-11-36-120) are solid mid-rotation arms. Anibal Sanchez (90-84-13-35-77) has also pitched well of late.

With Trevor Cahill (6.56 ERA), Clay Buchholz (6.57), Steven Matz (4.87), Daniel Norris (5.14), and Mike Montgomery (5.67) all sucking major monkey nuts, they all look to be expensive cuts this coming winter. The jury is still out on Felix Pena (4.92), who has been up and down all season long.

In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers (1.69) looks like our closer. Ryan Brasier (4.24) looks like a cut at this point. Jonathan Holder (6.81) has been an absolute trainwreck. But Richard Rodriguez (3.48), Trevor May (3.79), and the newly-acquired Ryne Harper (2.79) could contribute to the cause.

Midyear Report Card

We have officially reached the halfway mark in the 2019 season, which means it's time to evaluate where we stand and where we're heading. We currently sit five games ahead of the Joplin Miners in the McGowan Division and own the third-largest runs differential (+97) in the Ozzie League. Our .663 winning percentage is topped only by the ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers, who are on pace for 115+ wins for the fourth time in the past five years.

If the season ended today, we'd be stuck with facing the most dominant team (by runs differential) in the BDBL, the Akron Ryche, in the OLDS. We've only played one series against Akron so far, and managed to split that one. Needless to say, the outcome of any short series between two such evenly-matched teams would depend entirely on random dice rolls (more so than usual.) To that end, we did as much as we could to prepare for the Tournament of Randomness by plugging some major holes in our roster through three trades made in the past four weeks.

When the season began, we initially planned to acquire one of the Big Three (Max Scherzer, Christian Yelich, or Mike Trout), and we were prepared to sacrifice Rafael Devers and/or Nick Madrigal to get us that player. However, as the season progressed, we realized we needed more than one player. Acquiring any one of those three would have eaten up most of our VORP cap. And sacrificing Devers or Madrigal became less palatable. So we pivoted to Plan B.

Trade #1: Corbin Carroll to the Myrtle Beach Hitmen for Travis Shaw.

We are hitting just .230/.315/.400 against right-handed pitching this year despite having seven full-time players on our roster with a .780+ OPS against righties. Three black holes in our lineup have dragged down the entire team against right-handers: Odubel Herrera (.231/.289/.361 vs. RH), Hunter Renfroe (.190/.245/.354), and Mitch Moreland (.160/.275/.266). Each of those three owns an OPS against righties that is more than 200 points below where it should be.

It seems logical to assume that a great deal of regression is in order, and eventually, all three of those players will perform as well as they should. But what if they don't? That is a risk we can't afford to take. To that end, we picked up Shaw (.309/.389/.648 vs. RH for MBH), who will immediately replace Moreland in the lineup.

In addition to sacrificing Carroll (the 16th overall pick in last week's MLB draft), we will also likely have to pay $2.5 million to get rid of Shaw in December. It is a price worth paying if Shaw hits as well for us as he had for Myrtle Beach.

Trade #2: Jalen Beeks to South Carolina for Brandon Nimmo.

Even after adding Shaw, we still had two massive holes in our lineup. Other than Yelich and Shaw, Nimmo (.259/.402/.486 vs. RH for SCS) was the best hitter against right-handed pitching that is likely to become available in trade this year. We seem to have enough pitching depth (at this point) to deal Beeks, and Nimmo's poor (and injury-plagued) 2019 MLB season made him a logical target.

We still have one hole in our lineup, but it's better than having three. The best we can do is hope there is enough regression from Herrera and Renfroe to give us a viable platoon against righties.

This deal had the added side benefit of blocking Max Scherzer from pitching for Akron or any other contender we might face in the postseason.

Trade #3: Will Smith to the Great Lakes Sphinx for Oliver Perez.

We believe Perez is the most dominant pitcher in this game, inning for inning. The problem is that he didn't pitch a lot of innings in MLB last year. That problem, however, works in our favor, as this kept his VORP low enough that we could afford to add him in addition to the other pieces we needed for our lineup.

We know we sacrificed too much in this deal. Smith is not only an excellent defensive catcher, but he will hit better than most catchers in his MLB career over the next decade or so. We sacrificed a decade of production for roughly 29 innings, plus whatever Perez gives us in the postseason. But with Cervelli and Jansen occupying the catcher's position next year (if they can pull their heads out of their asses and snap out of their slumps), and Adley Rutschman occupying that position for the next decade thereafter, we felt we were playing with house money. The only problem with adding Perez is that it means some quality pitcher will be left off the postseason roster. But that is a good problem to have.

Now, on to the midyear report cards. These grades are based on how well each player has performed in relation to his expectations.

A+: Christian Villanueva (.373/.419/1.090, 15 HR in only 67 AB)
A+: Danny Valencia (.389/.458/.708, with 14.0 RC/27)
A+: Shohei Ohtani (.345/.402/.548 as a hitter, 2.51 ERA in 28+ IP as a pitcher)
A+: Ryan Brasier (0.57 ERA in 15+ IP)
A+: Pedro Strop (0.72 ERA in 37+ IP)

A: Taylor Rogers (1.83 ERA in 39+ IP)
A: Jonathan Holder (1.98 ERA in 36+ IP)
A: Rich Rodriguez (2.43 ERA in 40+ IP, vs. LH: .057/.143/.071)

B: Ramon Laureano (.264/.347/.483 in 87 AB)
B: Steven Matz (2-1, 3.25 ERA in 36+ IP)
B: Trevor Cahill (6-3, 3.25 ERA in 63+ IP)
B: Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.83 ERA in 56+ IP)
B: Jon Gray (3-0, 4.07 ERA in 24+ IP)

C: Trea Turner (.272/.329/.427, 9 HR, 44.6 RC, 23 SB, 6 CS)
C: Andrew Benintendi (.258/.351/.471, 13 HR, 42.1 RC)
C: Francisco Cervelli (.254/.347/.432, 28.8 RC)
C: Matt Grace (3.18 ERA in 22+ IP)
C: Felix Pena (2-2, 4.01 ERA in 42+ IP)

C-: Evan Gattis (.246/.266/.434, 5 HR in 122 AB)
C-: Jose Ramirez (.232/.366/.500, 18 HR, 57.6 RC)

D: Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.42 ERA in 55+ IP)
D: Stephen Strasburg (5-5, 3.91 ERA in 76 IP)
D: Justin Turner (.253/.366/.382, 5 HR, 26.2 RC)

D-: Mike Montgomery (5-2, 4.76 ERA in 51 IP)
D-: Odubel Herrera (.222/.271/.335, 5 HR, 21.1 RC)
D-: Rafael Devers (.208/.281/.417, 3.1 RC/27)

F: Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 4.91 ERA in 66 IP)
F: Enrique Hernandez (.208/.306/.458, 12 HR, 25.8 RC)
F: Hunter Renfroe (.195/.243/.372, 10 HR, 3.0 RC/27)
F: Mitch Moreland (.187/.298/.293, 3.1 RC/27)

Chapter Two Review

We wrapped up Chapter Two with a record of 18-10. We won four of the seven series we played, split against Joplin and Akron, and lost three of four to Los Altos. Our pitching staff stumbled a bit, but posted a respectable 3.67 ERA for the chapter. Our offense remains a complete and utter mystery. We are hitting just .231/.312/.418 as a team, one-third of the way into the season. We still have NINE players batting below .240, and two (Rafael Devers and Hunter Renfroe) who are still batting below .200.

If our offense doesn't pick up the pace in Chapter Three, we will be forced to make some tough sacrifices at the trading table. But then, what else is new?

The Good

After an absolutely horrendous first chapter, Shohei Ohtani has finally begun to hit. He batted .455/.500/.682, with his first home run of the season, in Chapter Two. Almost all of his hits came in the final three series of the season. If he can remain hot, it would be a huge benefit for this team, as we are absolutely starving for offense.

Christian Villanueva (.346/.346/.846 with 4 homers in Chapter Two) continues to mash the crap out of the ball against lefties, as does Danny Valencia (.409/.536/.818 with 3 homers). We hit .300/.356/.565 against lefties last chapter, largely thanks to those two.

Trea Turner (.306/.342/.407, with nine steals in ten attempts) continues to surpass expectations. Odubel Herrera (.289/.360/.500) likewise surprised with his second chapter performance. Enrique Hernandez (.254/.338/.576) and Jose Ramirez (.245/.379/.520) were no slouches, either.

On the pitching side, Ryan Brasier and Trevor May combined to pitch 13 shutout innings last chapter. Ohtani, Matt Grace, Rich Rodriguez, and Pedro Strop combined to allow just six earned runs in 38 innings (a 1.42 ERA.)

Felix Pena (2-0, 2.95 ERA) was our best starting pitcher last chapter. Sonny Gray (2-1, 3.38) was surprisingly the second-best.

The Bad

Clay Buchholz (1-1, 4.91 ERA) and Mike Montgomery (1-1, 5.06) were just about useless in Chapter Two. Go figure. Trevor Cahill (1-2, 5.63) and Stephen Strasburg (1-2, 5.75) were even more useless. And Taylor Rogers (5.23 ERA in 10+ IP) went from our best reliever to our worst.

Mitch Moreland (.244/.307/.385 last chapter) continues to be a black hole at first base, for the second year in a row. I really don't know why this game hates him so much. Likewise, Rafael Devers (.222/.265/.444) is just about useless at the other corner of the infield. Maybe the game just hates left-handed Red Sox?

The Ugly

Hunter F'ing Renfroe. Man alive. The dude went 2-for-14 (.194) last chapter, bringing his season batting average to -- get this -- .176. I don't understand what is happening with him, but our right field is becoming a huge problem area for us.

Evan Gattis (.192/.214/.269) was a beast in Chapter One, but he regressed HARD in Chapter Two. But that's nothing compared to Justin Turner. We paid $5.5 million for Turner, believing that he was the top hitter in the auction, PA-for-PA. Instead, he hit .169/.296/.271 in Chapter Two. Dude. You gotta be kidding me.

Chapter One Review

It seems impossible, and yet it's true. The Cowtippers managed to win 19 games in Chapter One despite hitting .217/.304/.396 as a team, with only 114 runs scored (an average of 4.1 per game.) SIX members of our starting lineup batted below .200. I'm at a loss to explain this. I'd like to think it's a small-sample fluke, but I've been wrong too many times about that before. Instead, it may be only the beginning of a trend.

Thankfully, our pitching stepped it up enough to compensate for the pathetic performance of our offense. We posted a 2.82 ERA on the chapter, with only 7.2 hits allowed per nine, and held opponents to a league-low .626 OPS.

We currently sit just two games ahead of the Joplin Miners, but trail them by two games on the Pythagorean scale. This is thanks to the fact that we went a remarkable 8-1 in one-run games last chapter. We cannot expect that good fortune to continue forever, so something needs to give.

The Good

Danny Valencia (.407/.414/.815) and Christian Villanueva (.406/.459/1.313) were better than good. They were other-worldly. Although the two only amassed 27 and 32 at-bats, respectively, they contributed 12 homers and over 28 runs created. Put the two of them together, and they were our Chapter One MVP.

Justin Turner (.290/.408/.468) and Andrew Benintendi (.286/.398/.500) performed as well as we expected them to perform, which is a good thing considering they pretty much carried this team throughout the chapter. Evan Gattis (.300/.317/.600 in 40 AB) was also a surprising contributor.

On the hill, it's hard to know where to begin. Trevor Cahill (1.24 ERA in 29 IP), Clay Buchholz (1.33 ERA in 20+ IP), and Mike Montgomery (3.12 ERA in 23 IP) went a combined 9-0, accounting for nearly half our wins. Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 2.08 ERA in 26 IP) was also brilliant in his five starts.

In the bullpen, Ryan Brasier (5 IP, 0.00 ERA), Pedro Strop (17+ IP, 0.52 ERA), Jonathan Holder (15+ IP, 1.15 ERA), and Taylor Rogers (15+ IP, 1.15 ERA) combined to go 7-0 with seven saves.

The Bad

We expected Rich Rodriguez to be our part-time closer heading into this season, but he  has proven to be untrustworthy so far. In 14+ innings, he allowed 12 hits, 9 walks, 2 homers, and a 4.30 ERA.

What the hell happened to Jose Ramirez? Expected to be our MVP, he hit just .213/.353/.415 instead. He did draw more walks (19) than strikeouts (10), and stole eight bases in ten attempts, so he wasn't completely useless. Still, he was far from the MVP we expected -- and needed.

On the other hand, we did expect Trea Turner to struggle this season, given the difference in ballpark factors between MLB and BDBL. He met expectations by hitting just .252/.306/.408. Like Ramirez, he made himself useful by contributing eight extra-base hits and seven stolen bases.

The Ugly

Where to begin? Francisco Cervelli (.182), Enrique Hernandez (.161), Hunter Renfroe (.160), Mitch Moreland (.159), Rafael Devers (.158), and Odubel Herrera (.141) each hit below .200 last chapter. I can buy one or two or even three of those guys slumping at the same time, but all six? I suspect voodoo magic is somehow involved.

Anibal Sanchez should be our best starting pitcher. Instead, he did this: 0-2, 7.41 ERA, 17 IP, 19 H, 18 R, 14 ER, 5 BB, 16 K, 5 HR. That last figure is the one that really makes zero sense whatsoever. Sanchez allowed 15 homers in 136+ innings in MLB last year. He's already one-third of the way to that total after only twelve percent of the innings.

Felix Pena (0-2, 7.00 ERA in 9 IP) also was no bueno.

The Really, REALLY, Ugly

Shohei Ohtani deserves his own category. We gave him 25 pinch-hit plate appearances last chapter. Here is what he did with those 25 opportunities: 2 hits, 1 double, 0 runs, 0 RBI's, 2 walks, 6 K's, 0 SB, 1 CS. Guys...what the actual fuck? Seriously.

Johnny Appleseed: Twenty Year Retrospective

No other owner in BDBL history can come close to my record when it comes to two things: 1) losing World Series, and 2) trading away future Hall of Famers for next to nothing. Hmm...maybe those two things are intertwined in some way.

Who was it who first dubbed me "The Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL?" Oh, right. It was me. But what an appropriate title it was -- and remains to this day. Take a look at the vote tallies for MVP or Cy Young in any given year and you will find it sprinkled with former Salem Cowtipper farmhands. Just imagine how history would have been altered if only I had been smart enough to hold on to any one of them.

Compiling this top ten list was not only a challenging exercise (because there were so many names to choose from), but time-consuming, as I had to stop every five minutes or so and bang my head against a wall. Without further ado, here now are the top ten players given away by the Salem Cowtippers franchise in our Sisyphusian effort to win a trophy that remains ever-elusive.

#10 Alfonso Soriano
Acquired: 1999 farm draft, round 2
Trade: (2000) Soriano and Michael Tejera to Minneapolis for Armando Rios and two draft picks

In our very first farm draft, way back in the 20th century, I selected a player who had zero professional experience in the US. Soriano had played in Japan the previous season, but only played nine games. There must have been something in the scouting reports that appealed to me, because I snatched him up in the second round in fear that someone ahead of me would take him.

He had an impressive 15-year BDBL career. He hit just .258/.306/.471 overall, but hit a total of 384 home runs, drove in over 1,200 runs, and created over 1,000 runs. He topped 100 runs created three times, and finished with over 90 RC's two other times. His best season came in 2004 when he hit .297/.342/.592 with 120+ RC, 45 HR, 120 runs scored, and 138 RBI's. Sadly, he didn't earn a single vote for the Hall of Fame.

#9 Wander F'ing Franco
Acquired: 2017 midseason farm "draft", 2nd pick
Trade: (2018) Franco to Niagara for Max Kepler



When we traded Franco, it was literally impossible to find any information about him whatsoever. He was a highly-touted 16-year-old when we drafted him, but a year later, he had yet to pick up a bat against a professional pitcher. He became such an afterthought that when Niagara GM Mike Ranney asked for him, I didn't hesitate to agree to the deal. Immediately -- mere nanoseconds after the deal was announced -- Franco became the greatest prospect the baseball world had ever seen. He went from total obscurity to the top five prospects in the game and an absolute lock to be recognized in the Baseball Hall of Fame as soon as his brilliant career has ended.

That trade still makes my stomach clench to this day. What makes it even worse is that we didn't even need Kepler. If Odubel Herrera hadn't sucked so badly all season, we wouldn't have asked for Kepler at all. As it stood, Herrera sucked, and we thought we needed another bat against right-handed pitching. Even with that bat, we still didn't make the playoffs. And just to rub more salt into that festering wound, we had to pay to get rid of Kepler's $1.5 million penalty (which Cleveland Rocks GM Mike Stein decided not to pay, and kept Kepler on his roster instead.)

Wander F'ing Franco.

#8 Kris Bryant
Acquired: 2012 midseason farm "draft", 1st pick
Trade: (2016) Bryant and Ryan Madson to Chicago for Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Sano, and four others



I almost didn't include Bryant in this list, because unlike the others I did receive some long-term benefits in return for him. In addition to Benintendi, Sano was later flipped for Gary Sanchez. Sanchez was then flipped for Danny Jansen (plus two other useful parts for this season.) So far, however, Bryant has been better than any of the other players included in this deal. In his three-year BDBL career, he owns a .271/.380/.460 batting line and has topped 100 runs created in each of his three seasons. Meanwhile, Benintendi (.256/.326/.386) has been a complete and total flop after having been cursed by the Sam Adams Stadium Jumbotron Curse.

#7 Gerrit Cole
Acquired: 2008 farm draft, round 5
Trade: (2008) Cole and four others to San Antonio for Matt Guerrier


Who the hell is Matt Guerrier?? Evidently, he was a relief pitcher that I must have decided was the final piece of the puzzle that would finally put a BDBL trophy on my bookshelf. Guerrier tossed 46+ innings for Salem that year and posted a nifty 2.31 ERA. He was then let go at the end of that season.

Cole, meanwhile, was tossed around from one team to another like a joint at one of Kamala Harris' college parties. In the winter of 2009, he was traded to Allentown. Before the winter was over, he was traded yet again to Great Lakes. At the Chapter Four deadline, he was sent packing yet again to Kansas. Finally, two years later he reached his final destination of Los Altos.

#6 Aaron Nola
Acquired: 2013 midseason farm "draft", 8th pick
Trade: (2015) Nola and Stephen Piscotty to Big River for Huston Street


Looking back, one of the dumbest things I've ever done as GM is trade away top young talent for relief pitching. At some point, I need to learn to stop doing that. Street was terrific for us. He saved 34 games in 2015, with a 2.64 ERA (1.55 CERA) in 51+ innings. We even got an extra year out of him in 2016, when he contributed a 3.57 ERA in 68+ innings. That's nice, but was it worth trading away not one, but TWO, franchise players?

So far, Nola owns a 3.63 career ERA in the BDBL, along with a 25-11 record. He is one of SIX players that are currently franchised that came through the Salem farm system and are now playing for another team.

#5 Alex Bregman
Acquired: 2013 midseason farm "draft", 2nd pick
Trade: (2015) Bregman and Spencer Adams to Charlotte for John Mayberry, Joaquin Benoit, and Mike Fiers


Boy, that trade didn't age well, did it? John Mayberry? Joaquin Benoit? Mike Fiers? What the hell was I thinking?

Mayberry was a pinch hitter -- and a crappy one at that. He hit .159/.275/.273 in 51 PA's for us that season. Benoit pitched all of 14 innings for us during the regular season, and was too expensive to keep beyond the 2015 season. Fiers was out of usage by the time we acquired him, so we couldn't even use him until the playoffs. He was supposed to be a weapon out of the bullpen, yet he allowed 7 runs (all earned) in just 3+ innings, with more walks (6!) than strikeouts (5). Thanks to him, the Blazers dispatched us in five short games in the OLDS.

Bregman was only a sophomore at Louisiana State when we acquired him. He went on to become the #2 overall pick in the 2015 draft. He created over 100 runs in his first full BDBL season last year and is likely to top all of his numbers this year. He has become the face of the Charlotte franchise and one of dozens to be franchised by Tony Chamra. Bregman will be a Mustang through the 2025 season.

#4 Carlos Correa
Acquired: 2012 farm draft, round 3
Trade: (2012) Correa and five other to Villanova for Yovani Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Addison Reed, and Marco Estrada


In 2012 I was in a desperate situation. My one and only goal in life at that point was to prevent the New Milford Blazers from winning back-to-back division titles. Toward that end, I struck a deal with the Villanova Mustangs that gave me the pieces to the puzzle that I had been missing. In particular, the acquisition of Gallardo was supposed to launch the Cowtippers over the top. Instead, he went 5-5 the rest of the way, with a mediocre 4.45 ERA. Hudson (6-2, 4.49 ERA) was equally mediocre. Estrada and Reed were fliers for the future that were soon flipped.

Correa, meanwhile, was selected with the first overall pick of the MLB draft shortly before he was traded. He has since blossomed into one of the best young hitters in the game of baseball. He owns a career batting line of .278/.353/.461 in the BDBL, and is yet another franchise player (signed through 2027) to have been developed through the Salem farm system.

#3 Aaron Judge
Acquired: 2013 farm draft, round 8
Trade #1: (2015) Judge and Robert Refsnyder to Ravenswood for Alex Gordon
Trade #2: (2017) Judge to Flagstaff for Junior Guerra


I was feeling so generous and Johnny Appleseedy that I traded Judge not once, but twice! We originally picked up Judge with our eighth and final pick of the 2013 farm draft. He was only a junior at Fresno State at the time, and hadn't posted dazzling numbers, but we believed the scouting reports about his "80" raw power.

We needed Gordon for yet another failed run at a trophy in 2015, so off went Judge to the Ravenswood Infidels. Gordon did well for us (.299/.373/.509 with 108.8 RC) that year, but we had to "pay" the Kansas Law Dogs to take his $5 million penalty off our hands at the end of that season. We went from buyers to sellers that winter, and our greatest asset at the time was our ace, Max Scherzer. We flipped Scherzer to Ravenswood, getting Judge (and Refsnyder and Stephen Matz) in return.

We spent the entire 2016 rebuilding for the 2017 season. That's when Flagstaff GM Greg Newgard came calling. He dangled part-time ace Guerra in front of my face, and I simply couldn't resist taking the bait. Guerra posted a 4.08 ERA in 130+ innings. Meanwhile, Judge became a surprise overnight sensation and is now an annual MVP candidate and the face of the Outlaws franchise for the next seven years.

#2 Max Scherzer
Acquired: 2005 midseason free agent draft, round 5
Trade: (2006) Scherzer and Ray Durham to Corona for Jay Bruce

With my fifth (and last) pick in the mid-year "farm draft" in 2005, I took a gamble on a college sophomore from the University of Missouri. A little more than a year later, in the middle of my first-ever losing season, I traded Durham to the contending Corona franchise in exchange for top prospect Jay Bruce. It was a sensible trade, given that Durham was a star who could help a contending team, and Bruce was the type of prospect a rebuilding team like my own would covet.

...But why on earth did I "throw in" Scherzer? Beats me.

Bruce became a top-ten prospect in 2007, and was the #1 prospect in baseball in 2008. Naturally, by the time he finally reached the big leagues, I had traded him, too! Meanwhile, Scherzer was traded yet again in 2008 before he finally settled in with the Atlanta Fire Ants organization. He pitched five seasons in Atlanta before the Cowtippers reacquired him in 2014 as a free agent at the bargain-basement salary of $14 million. To date, he has won 130 games with a 3.55 ERA. He won back-to-back Cy Young awards in 2016 and 2017 -- one in the OL, the other in the EL.

#1 Justin Verlander
Acquired: 2003 farm draft, 8th round
Trade: (2003) Verlander and Scott Shields to Akron for Guillermo Mota and Kris Honel

Verlander was only a sophomore at Old Dominion University when I drafted him in 2003. I took one look at the numbers he was posting and decided he was worth a flier. Less than three months later, I traded him during an apparently hypnotic haze. I honestly can't remember why I traded him. I recall Shields got off to a terrible start (10+ IP, 16 H, 12 ER), and Mota (12 IP, 14 H, 7 ER) wasn't doing so hot for Akron, either. So D.J. and I were trading one problem child for another.

Mota (53 IP, 2.89 ERA) pitched pretty well as a Cowtipper, but Shields (40 IP, 1.80 ERA) pitched even better for Akron. If the trade had ended there, I'd say it made sense for both sides, but Akron definitely got the better end of the deal (especially since Shields was $1.5 million cheaper.)

So, why "throw in" Verlander and Honel? I suppose at the time, Honel was the better bet to have a stellar career. He was ranked #73 on Baseball America's top prospects list, and was coming off a season at Low-A in which he struck out 152 batters in 153+ innings as a 19-year-old, with a peachy 2.82 ERA. Maybe the thinking was that Honel-for-Verlander would make up that $1.5 million difference...in favor of Salem?

The rest, as they say, is history. To date, Verlander has won 165 games in his twelve-year BDBL career (nine of them with Akron), with a 3.65 ERA. He won a Cy Young award in 2012, and will undoubtedly be named to the BDBL Hall of Fame once he retires, wearing an Akron cap. Honel, meanwhile, never threw a pitch in the BDBL.

*** 

Just for giggles, here is what our team would look like today if only I hadn't been such an idiot and kept the prospects we gave away for nothing:

C: Francisco Cervelli
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Jose Ramirez
3B: Kris Bryant / Alex Bregman
SS: Carlos Correa / Trea Turner
LF: Michael Conforto
CF: Aaron Hicks / Stephen Piscotty
RF: Aaron Judge

P: Max Scherzer
P: Justin Verlander
P: Stephen Strasburg
P: Gerrit Cole
P: Aaron Nola

2019 Free Agent Draft Post-mortem

The free agent auction and draft went nothing like we planned. Of course, this is the 21st year I have repeated that sentence. We went into the auction in a great position. We had a full pitching staff and a full offense with the exception of a right-hand-hitting first baseman to platoon with Mitch Moreland. We also had $28.3 million to spend on just seven roster spots. That gave us a tremendous amount of flexibility. As it turned out, we needed every bit of it.

$8 million of our $28.3 million budget was earmarked for two players well before the auction began. Because we had the number one pick in every round of the draft, we determined that we would make a third-round selection at $5 million no matter what else took place beforehand. We also identified Ramon Laureano as a "must-have" player as the first pick in the sixth round at $3 million. We had a temporary moment of panic when he was listed among the top-50 in VORP, but when he fell out of that top-50, we knew we could get him in that slot.

Plan A: Spend most of the remaining $20.3 million on one stud pitcher.

There were five stud pitchers in this year's auction: Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw. We ranked those five in that order. The original plan was to throw a $14 million bid at each of them, with the belief that at least one of those bids would stick. However, as D-Day drew closer we began to reevaluate those five. Given the ages and injury histories of Verlander, Greinke, and Kershaw, we couldn't justify throwing that much money at them and locking them into three-year deals. So we moved those three out of that first tier and placed them into a "backup plan" tier.

We placed a half-hearted $12 million bid on Verlander in the first day of the auction and were not disappointed when we lost that bid. The player we really wanted, more than any other player available this winter, was Sale. The following day, we placed our $14 million bid on Sale. Then, just to be safe, we upped our bid to $15 million later that day. That would have required sacrificing a few of our needs later in the draft, but we felt it would have been worth it.

Unfortunately for us, both Jim Doyle and Tony Badger were hell-bent on spending 90% of their cash on one pitcher, leaving the rest of their rotations barren. Doyle won the bid for Sale at a whopping $16 million. Onto Plan B.

Plan B: Lock up that platoon first baseman at $5 million, and still have enough for a $14 million bid on Corbin later in the auction.

Several players would have fit that bill as the right-handed half of a platoon at first base, including Jedd Gyorko, Ben Zobrist, and C.J. Cron. As fate would have it, all three went for $5 million, and all three returned to their former teams with the home-field-discount tie-breaker.

Onto Plan C...

Plan C: Get Matt Carpenter.

By day five of the auction, we had committed to signing Patrick Corbin. We made half-hearted bids to Greinke and Kershaw and lost both, leaving Corbin as the only ace remaining on the board. We knew, however, that Badger was hell-bent on spending his $15 million on one pitcher, and that Corbin would be his target. So to avoid that bidding war, we decided we would go in the opposite direction. Instead of building a championship starting rotation, we would build a championship lineup.

Carpenter was the best full-time hitter available in the auction, and one of the only decent hitters under the age of 35. We didn't need his bat against right-handers, but we would certainly find a place for him. Under the worst-case scenario, we could simply trade Moreland to fill some other need.

The question was: how much should we bid? There was no need to waste our $14 million max bid, given the salary someone like Carpenter would normally fetch in the auction. However, because the supply of quality hitting was so low in this auction, we knew there would be price inflation. We submitted what we thought would be the winning bid of $9 million.

As the auction came to a close, the league speculated whether anyone would dare go "Type H" for Carpenter. I felt pretty good about my $9 million bid at that point. In fact, I thought we may get him for as low as $7 million. Or even $6 million. I began to mentally reallocate those "savings" to other areas of need.

Then the auction ended. And Jeff Paulson was named as the winning bidder. Because of course.

Plan D: Err...how about Justin Turner?

Turner was the best hitter in this year's draft class, but as he is rated only at third base, we had no use for him. That position was already jam-packed by Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Christian Villanueva, and Kike Hernandez. But we still needed a platoon first baseman. The only remaining free agents that could possibly fit that bill were Joey Votto, C.J. Cron, and Ryan Braun.

Unfortunately, Cron was in the same auction lot as Turner. We had no choice but to bid for both, but I had a queasy feeling that Cron's former team, the Sea Cats, would bid the $5 million max that would force me to go "Type H" if I wanted to fill that platoon position. That wasn't going to happen. I had zero interest in Braun, and Votto's numbers simply wouldn't play well in our ballpark, so I placed a $7 million bid on Turner. Imagine my surprise when we won the bid for a meager $5.5 million.

Plan E: GET PATRICK CORBIN!!

Our winning bid for Turner left us with $22.8 million to spend on six players. Two of those slots were already reserved at a combined $8 million. That left us with a maximum of $14.5 million to bid on Corbin. So that's what we did.

And predictably, Badger, hell-bent on spending $15 million on one pitcher, won the bid.

Plan F: Spread it around.

Our losing bid for Corbin was the end of our auction. We toyed with the idea of bidding big on Andrelton Simmons, and then using him as a super utility guy around the diamond, but discarded that notion fairly quickly.

We didn't get Sale. We didn't get Corbin. We didn't get Carpenter. But we did get the best hitter (PA for PA) available, and we did have plenty of money left to spend. So here's what we did with it:

Taylor Rogers

We waffled back and forth between Rogers and Dereck Rodriguez for weeks. When we lost the bid for Corbin, we assumed we would need Rodriguez's innings for our starting rotation, but a second calculation proved otherwise. We can make do with what we have. Rogers not only fills a bullpen need for us this year, but we believe he will be an asset next year as well. He transformed himself midway through last season and became one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in the second half. If he can continue that trend, he could be 2019's version of Josh Hader.

Ryan Brasier

It is insane to pay $5 million for a 31-year-old pitcher who tossed only 34 innings in MLB last season. But Brasier posted some pretty insane numbers, and they will come in handy -- especially if we make it to the postseason. He held right-handers to a .313 OPS, which is just flat-out insane. We thought about waiting until the $3 million rounds to snag him, but knew one of the vultures would have swooped in before we had the chance.

Evan Gattis

Yes, he's old and slow and fat. Yes, he hit just .226, posted a sub-.300 OBP, and strikes out way too often. But he also hit 25 home runs and was the best offensive "catcher" available in a putrid draft class for catchers. He won't see much playing time as Francisco Cervelli's backup, but every team needs a backup catcher at some point. Sure, it would have been nice to know on Day Two of the auction that Tyler Flowers would have gone for only $3 million, but that's now this works.

Ramon Laureano

As I wrote above, we identified Laureano as a "must-have" very early in the winter. He only played two months in the big leagues last year, but what an impact he made in such a short time. He established himself as an elite glove in center field, with arguably the best outfield arm in MLB. Offensively, he reminds us of a right-handed Odubel Herrera: .250-.260 batting average, plenty of walks, lots of strikeouts, 15-20 home run power, 15-25 steals. Just 24 years old, there is a ton of room in his profile for breakout potential.

Trevor May

May missed the entire 2017 season after Tommy John surgery. When he returned, he was just about lights-out. It's a small sample, but in 25 innings, he allowed just four walks and struck out 36. It looks as though he will remain in the bullpen, where we feel he has the stuff to be a dominant reliever.

2019 Salem Farm Report

Ah, if only we had held onto (insert name of elite, Hall-of-Fame-bound superstar prospect here), the Salem farm would rank among the top systems in the entire BDBL and we would rule the league for the next decade! But alas, I must maintain my league-wide-recognized reputation as the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL and sprinkle all of our superstar prospect seeds throughout the kingdom so that everyone may share in my benevolence and wisdom.

Here is what is left of our farm system: 

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 20). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

Background: Rutschman led the Oregon State Beavers to a College World Series title last year, and then led all Team USA hitters in all three triple-slash categories during the summer. He is the consensus choice to become the #1 overall pick in the upcoming 2019 MLB Amateur Draft in June. Scouts give him top grades for his defense and arm behind the plate (both graded 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale.) He also carries a plus hit tool from both sides of the plate.

Stats: As a sophomore at OSU, Rutschman hit .408/.505/.628, with 22 doubles, 9 home runs, and more walks (53) than strikeouts (40). In nine games with Team USA, he slashed .355/.432/.516 with five doubles.

The Future: If he isn't drafted with the first overall pick this summer, it means something went terribly wrong. Among the Class of 2019, Rutschman is in a tier all by himself. He should move quickly through the minor leagues and eventually become the Catcher of the Future the Salem franchise has been anticipating since tabbing Ben Davis with that label way back in 1999.

2. Nick Madrigal, 2b
Born: March 5, 1997 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-7. Wt: 165. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2017.

Background: The fourth overall pick of last year's MLB draft, Madrigal has unworldly bat control -- which will either be his ticket to success or his demise. Because of his diminutive size, ability to hit to all fields, defensive prowess, and gritty gamy-ness, he has drawn comparisons to Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve.

Stats: Madrigal missed most of the first half of the season during his junior year at Oregon State. When he returned, he didn't skip a beat. In fact, he didn't strike out once during his first month back in the lineup. He finished the season with a line of .367/.428/.511, with 16 extra-base hits in only 42 games, and just seven strikeouts. In his three-year career with OSU (basically a full MLB season's worth of games), he hit .361/.422/.502, with 221 hits in 612 at-bats, 40 doubles, 11 triples, 8 home runs, 39 steals, 58 walks, and just 37 strikeouts.

The Future: Madrigal was expected to hit the ground running when he turned pro. Instead, he struggled a bit. He did hit .303 with a respectable .353 on-base percentage, but with only 7 extra-base hits, resulting in a .348 slugging percentage. The future is still very bright, but he needs to become more aggressive at the plate and prove he can hit for occasional power if he's going to become a full-time player in the major leagues.

3. Danny Jansen, c
Born: April 15, 1995 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 225. Acquired: trade, winter, 2019

Background: We originally acquired Jansen in the second round of the 2018 winter farm draft. Because we can't have nice things, we traded him to Cleveland later that year in exchange for Tommy Hunter. We then re-acquired Jansen this winter as part of the big Gary Sanchez trade.

Stats: Jansen has proven ability to consistently get on base and hit for occasional power. He hit .323/.400/.484 at three different minor league levels in 2017, and followed that with a .275/.390/.473 showing in Triple-A last year. His season culminated with a MLB trial, where he hit .247/.347/.432 in 32 games.

The Future: All indications are that Jansen will be given a shot as the Opening Day catcher for Toronto this year. He has some competition with Luke Maile and Reese McGuire, and the veteran Russ Martin is still hanging around. Still, Jansen is the favorite at this point to get most of the playing time. With Francisco Cervelli signed to another season for us in 2020, we can afford it if Jansen isn't ready to take over for us next year. We'd prefer it, however, if he won the job, kept it all season, and performed as well as he has in the past two seasons.

4. Will Smith, c
Born: March 28, 1995 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 192. Acquired: 2nd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: If there is one thing we have on the Salem farm, it is depth behind the plate. Of our three catching prospects, Smith may have the best defensive tools. Ironically, because of the presence of Keibert Ruiz in the Dodgers system, Smith may end up switching positions. In 2018, he played roughly half his innings at third base, where he is said to be an average defender. Smith was a first round pick by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft. He is currently ranked as the #29 prospect in baseball by FanGraphs -- the highest-ranked player selected in the 2019 farm draft.

Stats: For his career, Smith has hit .236/.342/.420. Last season, at the Double-A level, he hit .264/.358/.532, with 19 home runs.

The Future: The scouting reports seem mixed when it comes to Smith. He will likely never hit for a high average, but he has plenty of power potential. If he sticks behind the plate, his combination of power and defense would make him a valuable asset. At third base, however, it remains to be seen if his bat can carry his glove.

5. Luis Garcia, ss
Born: October 1, 2000 (age 18). B-T: B-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 170. Acquired: 1st round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Not to be confused with the Washington Nationals prospect with the same name, this Luis Garcia was considered to be among the top prospects in last year's Latin American/J2 class. The scouting report on him was that he was capable of elite defense, but there were questions about his bat. As it turned out, his bat seemed just fine. Garcia was challenged with an assignment to the full-season Gulf Coast League and played the entire season as a 17-year-old. In the end, he was named the #1 prospect in the league.

Stats: In 168 at-bats, Garcia hit a league-leading .369, with a .433 OBP and .488 slugging percentage. He racked up 15 extra base hits (1 home run) and owned an impressive 15/21 BB/K ratio.

The Future: It's a fool's game to project the future for a 17-year-old kid. Over the next year, Garcia could follow in former Cowtipper Wander F'ing Franco's footsteps and leap into the top tier of prospects. Or he could follow in former Cowtipper Adrian Rondon's footsteps and fall off the face of the planet. At this point, it's a coin flip. But if I trade him, then it's a 100% certainty that he will become the next Alex Rodriguez.

6. Jackson Kowar, p
Born: Oct 4, 1996 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 180. Acquired: via trade, winter 2019.

Background: Kowar was selected in the first round by the Kansas City Royals last summer after a stellar career with the University of Florida. Tall and lanky, he owns a fastball and change-up that both grade in the 55/60 range.

Stats: Last season with Florida, Kowar struck out 115 batters in 113 innings, with 101 hits allowed, 43 walks, and a 3.04 ERA. In his pro debut, he posted a 3.42 ERA in the Low-A Sally League, with 19 hits and 12 walks allowed in 26+ innings, and 22 K's.

The Future: At this point, Kowar is more projection than performance. He needs to refine his pitches and improve his command and control. The tools are all there for him to become a top-tier pitching prospect, but there is still a long way to go.

7. Spencer Howard, p
Born: July 28, 1996 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Drafted in the second round of the 2017 MLB draft out of Cal Poly, Howard made significant strides last season that are obscured by his overall numbers. Blessed with a fastball that can touch 100mph, a power slider, and two other pitches that grade as average, Howard has the tools to become a frontline starting pitcher. He simply needs to put it all together for a full season.

Stats: Overall, Howard posted a 3.78 ERA last season, with a 40/147 BB/K ratio in 112 innings. From July 1st to the end of the season, however, he posted a 2.36 ERA, with a 20/71 ratio in 53 innings. He then capped off the season with a no-hitter in the playoffs.

The Future: If Howard can continue to build on what he accomplished in the second half of last season, the sky is the limit. He will be challenged at the Double-A level in 2019, which is where we'll see what he's really made of.

8. Jhon Torres, of
Born: March 29, 2000 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 199. Acquired: 9th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: A prototypical power-hitting right fielder, Torres split his time between the rookie Arizona League and Gulf Coast League last season following a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals. He was named the #2 prospect in the former and #6 in the latter.

Stats: In his career, Torres has hit .286/.383/.462, with 16 doubles, 13 homers, and a 47/78 BB/K ratio in 346 at-bats.

The Future: As far as 18-year-old lottery tickets go, Torres poses less of a risk than most. In particular, his ability to hit for power while maintaining a healthy BB/K ratio suggests that he is an intelligent hitter with some idea of what he is doing when he steps into the box. The only question is whether he will continue to develop in 2019 or slide backward.

9. Jeter Downs, ss
Born: July 27, 1998 (age 20.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 180. Acquired: 5th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: How could we not love a shortstop named Jeter? Downs was a supplemental first round pick in the 2017 MLB draft. He was ranked the 8th-best prospect in the Class A Midwest League by Baseball America. He's an above-average athlete with plus-speed and above-average pop for a middle infielder.

Stats: Last year, Downs hit .257/.351/.402, with 13 homers and 37 steals in 455 at-bats. In his career (roughly a full season at 170 games), he has hit .260/.356/.408, with 19 homers, 26 doubles, 45 steals, and a 79/135 BB/K ratio.

The Future: Downs was traded to the Dodgers this winter in the big Puig/Wood/Kemp deal, which means LA must think highly of him. The consensus opinion is that Downs will not stick at shortstop, which likely means a move to third base given his plus arm strength. The question is whether he has enough bat to carry that position.

10. Lenny Torres, p

Born: October 15, 2000 (age 28.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: 8th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Torres was one of the youngest players selected in the 2018 MLB draft. Chosen in the supplemental first round by the Cleveland Indians, he was assigned to the Arizona League, where he more than held his own as a 17-year-old.

Stats: In only six starts and 15+ innings, Torres allowed 14 hits and 4 walks, striking out 22.

The Future: Torres played mostly at shortstop in high school, so pitching is still relatively new to him. Given that, it's even more impressive to see what he was able to do in his first exposure to pro hitters. Granted, it's a small sample size, but it's still encouraging.