The free agent auction and draft went nothing like we planned. Of course, this is the 21st year I have repeated that sentence. We went into the auction in a great position. We had a full pitching staff and a full offense with the exception of a right-hand-hitting first baseman to platoon with Mitch Moreland. We also had $28.3 million to spend on just seven roster spots. That gave us a tremendous amount of flexibility. As it turned out, we needed every bit of it.
$8 million of our $28.3 million budget was earmarked for two players well before the auction began. Because we had the number one pick in every round of the draft, we determined that we would make a third-round selection at $5 million no matter what else took place beforehand. We also identified Ramon Laureano as a "must-have" player as the first pick in the sixth round at $3 million. We had a temporary moment of panic when he was listed among the top-50 in VORP, but when he fell out of that top-50, we knew we could get him in that slot.
Plan A: Spend most of the remaining $20.3 million on one stud pitcher.
There were five stud pitchers in this year's auction: Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw. We ranked those five in that order. The original plan was to throw a $14 million bid at each of them, with the belief that at least one of those bids would stick. However, as D-Day drew closer we began to reevaluate those five. Given the ages and injury histories of Verlander, Greinke, and Kershaw, we couldn't justify throwing that much money at them and locking them into three-year deals. So we moved those three out of that first tier and placed them into a "backup plan" tier.
We placed a half-hearted $12 million bid on Verlander in the first day of the auction and were not disappointed when we lost that bid. The player we really wanted, more than any other player available this winter, was Sale. The following day, we placed our $14 million bid on Sale. Then, just to be safe, we upped our bid to $15 million later that day. That would have required sacrificing a few of our needs later in the draft, but we felt it would have been worth it.
Unfortunately for us, both Jim Doyle and Tony Badger were hell-bent on spending 90% of their cash on one pitcher, leaving the rest of their rotations barren. Doyle won the bid for Sale at a whopping $16 million. Onto Plan B.
Plan B: Lock up that platoon first baseman at $5 million, and still have enough for a $14 million bid on Corbin later in the auction.
Several players would have fit that bill as the right-handed half of a platoon at first base, including Jedd Gyorko, Ben Zobrist, and C.J. Cron. As fate would have it, all three went for $5 million, and all three returned to their former teams with the home-field-discount tie-breaker.
Onto Plan C...
Plan C: Get Matt Carpenter.
By day five of the auction, we had committed to signing Patrick Corbin. We made half-hearted bids to Greinke and Kershaw and lost both, leaving Corbin as the only ace remaining on the board. We knew, however, that Badger was hell-bent on spending his $15 million on one pitcher, and that Corbin would be his target. So to avoid that bidding war, we decided we would go in the opposite direction. Instead of building a championship starting rotation, we would build a championship lineup.
Carpenter was the best full-time hitter available in the auction, and one of the only decent hitters under the age of 35. We didn't need his bat against right-handers, but we would certainly find a place for him. Under the worst-case scenario, we could simply trade Moreland to fill some other need.
The question was: how much should we bid? There was no need to waste our $14 million max bid, given the salary someone like Carpenter would normally fetch in the auction. However, because the supply of quality hitting was so low in this auction, we knew there would be price inflation. We submitted what we thought would be the winning bid of $9 million.
As the auction came to a close, the league speculated whether anyone would dare go "Type H" for Carpenter. I felt pretty good about my $9 million bid at that point. In fact, I thought we may get him for as low as $7 million. Or even $6 million. I began to mentally reallocate those "savings" to other areas of need.
Then the auction ended. And Jeff Paulson was named as the winning bidder. Because of course.
Plan D: Err...how about Justin Turner?
Turner was the best hitter in this year's draft class, but as he is rated only at third base, we had no use for him. That position was already jam-packed by Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Christian Villanueva, and Kike Hernandez. But we still needed a platoon first baseman. The only remaining free agents that could possibly fit that bill were Joey Votto, C.J. Cron, and Ryan Braun.
Unfortunately, Cron was in the same auction lot as Turner. We had no choice but to bid for both, but I had a queasy feeling that Cron's former team, the Sea Cats, would bid the $5 million max that would force me to go "Type H" if I wanted to fill that platoon position. That wasn't going to happen. I had zero interest in Braun, and Votto's numbers simply wouldn't play well in our ballpark, so I placed a $7 million bid on Turner. Imagine my surprise when we won the bid for a meager $5.5 million.
Plan E: GET PATRICK CORBIN!!
Our winning bid for Turner left us with $22.8 million to spend on six players. Two of those slots were already reserved at a combined $8 million. That left us with a maximum of $14.5 million to bid on Corbin. So that's what we did.
And predictably, Badger, hell-bent on spending $15 million on one pitcher, won the bid.
Plan F: Spread it around.
Our losing bid for Corbin was the end of our auction. We toyed with the idea of bidding big on Andrelton Simmons, and then using him as a super utility guy around the diamond, but discarded that notion fairly quickly.
We didn't get Sale. We didn't get Corbin. We didn't get Carpenter. But we did get the best hitter (PA for PA) available, and we did have plenty of money left to spend. So here's what we did with it:
Taylor Rogers
We waffled back and forth between Rogers and Dereck Rodriguez for weeks. When we lost the bid for Corbin, we assumed we would need Rodriguez's innings for our starting rotation, but a second calculation proved otherwise. We can make do with what we have. Rogers not only fills a bullpen need for us this year, but we believe he will be an asset next year as well. He transformed himself midway through last season and became one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in the second half. If he can continue that trend, he could be 2019's version of Josh Hader.
Ryan Brasier
It is insane to pay $5 million for a 31-year-old pitcher who tossed only 34 innings in MLB last season. But Brasier posted some pretty insane numbers, and they will come in handy -- especially if we make it to the postseason. He held right-handers to a .313 OPS, which is just flat-out insane. We thought about waiting until the $3 million rounds to snag him, but knew one of the vultures would have swooped in before we had the chance.
Evan Gattis
Yes, he's old and slow and fat. Yes, he hit just .226, posted a sub-.300 OBP, and strikes out way too often. But he also hit 25 home runs and was the best offensive "catcher" available in a putrid draft class for catchers. He won't see much playing time as Francisco Cervelli's backup, but every team needs a backup catcher at some point. Sure, it would have been nice to know on Day Two of the auction that Tyler Flowers would have gone for only $3 million, but that's now this works.
Ramon Laureano
As I wrote above, we identified Laureano as a "must-have" very early in the winter. He only played two months in the big leagues last year, but what an impact he made in such a short time. He established himself as an elite glove in center field, with arguably the best outfield arm in MLB. Offensively, he reminds us of a right-handed Odubel Herrera: .250-.260 batting average, plenty of walks, lots of strikeouts, 15-20 home run power, 15-25 steals. Just 24 years old, there is a ton of room in his profile for breakout potential.
Trevor May
May missed the entire 2017 season after Tommy John surgery. When he returned, he was just about lights-out. It's a small sample, but in 25 innings, he allowed just four walks and struck out 36. It looks as though he will remain in the bullpen, where we feel he has the stuff to be a dominant reliever.
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