Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Johnny Appleseed: Twenty Year Retrospective

No other owner in BDBL history can come close to my record when it comes to two things: 1) losing World Series, and 2) trading away future Hall of Famers for next to nothing. Hmm...maybe those two things are intertwined in some way.

Who was it who first dubbed me "The Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL?" Oh, right. It was me. But what an appropriate title it was -- and remains to this day. Take a look at the vote tallies for MVP or Cy Young in any given year and you will find it sprinkled with former Salem Cowtipper farmhands. Just imagine how history would have been altered if only I had been smart enough to hold on to any one of them.

Compiling this top ten list was not only a challenging exercise (because there were so many names to choose from), but time-consuming, as I had to stop every five minutes or so and bang my head against a wall. Without further ado, here now are the top ten players given away by the Salem Cowtippers franchise in our Sisyphusian effort to win a trophy that remains ever-elusive.

#10 Alfonso Soriano
Acquired: 1999 farm draft, round 2
Trade: (2000) Soriano and Michael Tejera to Minneapolis for Armando Rios and two draft picks

In our very first farm draft, way back in the 20th century, I selected a player who had zero professional experience in the US. Soriano had played in Japan the previous season, but only played nine games. There must have been something in the scouting reports that appealed to me, because I snatched him up in the second round in fear that someone ahead of me would take him.

He had an impressive 15-year BDBL career. He hit just .258/.306/.471 overall, but hit a total of 384 home runs, drove in over 1,200 runs, and created over 1,000 runs. He topped 100 runs created three times, and finished with over 90 RC's two other times. His best season came in 2004 when he hit .297/.342/.592 with 120+ RC, 45 HR, 120 runs scored, and 138 RBI's. Sadly, he didn't earn a single vote for the Hall of Fame.

#9 Wander F'ing Franco
Acquired: 2017 midseason farm "draft", 2nd pick
Trade: (2018) Franco to Niagara for Max Kepler



When we traded Franco, it was literally impossible to find any information about him whatsoever. He was a highly-touted 16-year-old when we drafted him, but a year later, he had yet to pick up a bat against a professional pitcher. He became such an afterthought that when Niagara GM Mike Ranney asked for him, I didn't hesitate to agree to the deal. Immediately -- mere nanoseconds after the deal was announced -- Franco became the greatest prospect the baseball world had ever seen. He went from total obscurity to the top five prospects in the game and an absolute lock to be recognized in the Baseball Hall of Fame as soon as his brilliant career has ended.

That trade still makes my stomach clench to this day. What makes it even worse is that we didn't even need Kepler. If Odubel Herrera hadn't sucked so badly all season, we wouldn't have asked for Kepler at all. As it stood, Herrera sucked, and we thought we needed another bat against right-handed pitching. Even with that bat, we still didn't make the playoffs. And just to rub more salt into that festering wound, we had to pay to get rid of Kepler's $1.5 million penalty (which Cleveland Rocks GM Mike Stein decided not to pay, and kept Kepler on his roster instead.)

Wander F'ing Franco.

#8 Kris Bryant
Acquired: 2012 midseason farm "draft", 1st pick
Trade: (2016) Bryant and Ryan Madson to Chicago for Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Sano, and four others



I almost didn't include Bryant in this list, because unlike the others I did receive some long-term benefits in return for him. In addition to Benintendi, Sano was later flipped for Gary Sanchez. Sanchez was then flipped for Danny Jansen (plus two other useful parts for this season.) So far, however, Bryant has been better than any of the other players included in this deal. In his three-year BDBL career, he owns a .271/.380/.460 batting line and has topped 100 runs created in each of his three seasons. Meanwhile, Benintendi (.256/.326/.386) has been a complete and total flop after having been cursed by the Sam Adams Stadium Jumbotron Curse.

#7 Gerrit Cole
Acquired: 2008 farm draft, round 5
Trade: (2008) Cole and four others to San Antonio for Matt Guerrier


Who the hell is Matt Guerrier?? Evidently, he was a relief pitcher that I must have decided was the final piece of the puzzle that would finally put a BDBL trophy on my bookshelf. Guerrier tossed 46+ innings for Salem that year and posted a nifty 2.31 ERA. He was then let go at the end of that season.

Cole, meanwhile, was tossed around from one team to another like a joint at one of Kamala Harris' college parties. In the winter of 2009, he was traded to Allentown. Before the winter was over, he was traded yet again to Great Lakes. At the Chapter Four deadline, he was sent packing yet again to Kansas. Finally, two years later he reached his final destination of Los Altos.

#6 Aaron Nola
Acquired: 2013 midseason farm "draft", 8th pick
Trade: (2015) Nola and Stephen Piscotty to Big River for Huston Street


Looking back, one of the dumbest things I've ever done as GM is trade away top young talent for relief pitching. At some point, I need to learn to stop doing that. Street was terrific for us. He saved 34 games in 2015, with a 2.64 ERA (1.55 CERA) in 51+ innings. We even got an extra year out of him in 2016, when he contributed a 3.57 ERA in 68+ innings. That's nice, but was it worth trading away not one, but TWO, franchise players?

So far, Nola owns a 3.63 career ERA in the BDBL, along with a 25-11 record. He is one of SIX players that are currently franchised that came through the Salem farm system and are now playing for another team.

#5 Alex Bregman
Acquired: 2013 midseason farm "draft", 2nd pick
Trade: (2015) Bregman and Spencer Adams to Charlotte for John Mayberry, Joaquin Benoit, and Mike Fiers


Boy, that trade didn't age well, did it? John Mayberry? Joaquin Benoit? Mike Fiers? What the hell was I thinking?

Mayberry was a pinch hitter -- and a crappy one at that. He hit .159/.275/.273 in 51 PA's for us that season. Benoit pitched all of 14 innings for us during the regular season, and was too expensive to keep beyond the 2015 season. Fiers was out of usage by the time we acquired him, so we couldn't even use him until the playoffs. He was supposed to be a weapon out of the bullpen, yet he allowed 7 runs (all earned) in just 3+ innings, with more walks (6!) than strikeouts (5). Thanks to him, the Blazers dispatched us in five short games in the OLDS.

Bregman was only a sophomore at Louisiana State when we acquired him. He went on to become the #2 overall pick in the 2015 draft. He created over 100 runs in his first full BDBL season last year and is likely to top all of his numbers this year. He has become the face of the Charlotte franchise and one of dozens to be franchised by Tony Chamra. Bregman will be a Mustang through the 2025 season.

#4 Carlos Correa
Acquired: 2012 farm draft, round 3
Trade: (2012) Correa and five other to Villanova for Yovani Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Addison Reed, and Marco Estrada


In 2012 I was in a desperate situation. My one and only goal in life at that point was to prevent the New Milford Blazers from winning back-to-back division titles. Toward that end, I struck a deal with the Villanova Mustangs that gave me the pieces to the puzzle that I had been missing. In particular, the acquisition of Gallardo was supposed to launch the Cowtippers over the top. Instead, he went 5-5 the rest of the way, with a mediocre 4.45 ERA. Hudson (6-2, 4.49 ERA) was equally mediocre. Estrada and Reed were fliers for the future that were soon flipped.

Correa, meanwhile, was selected with the first overall pick of the MLB draft shortly before he was traded. He has since blossomed into one of the best young hitters in the game of baseball. He owns a career batting line of .278/.353/.461 in the BDBL, and is yet another franchise player (signed through 2027) to have been developed through the Salem farm system.

#3 Aaron Judge
Acquired: 2013 farm draft, round 8
Trade #1: (2015) Judge and Robert Refsnyder to Ravenswood for Alex Gordon
Trade #2: (2017) Judge to Flagstaff for Junior Guerra



I was feeling so generous and Johnny Appleseedy that I traded Judge not once, but twice! We originally picked up Judge with our eighth and final pick of the 2013 farm draft. He was only a junior at Fresno State at the time, and hadn't posted dazzling numbers, but we believed the scouting reports about his "80" raw power.

We needed Gordon for yet another failed run at a trophy in 2015, so off went Judge to the Ravenswood Infidels. Gordon did well for us (.299/.373/.509 with 108.8 RC) that year, but we had to "pay" the Kansas Law Dogs to take his $5 million penalty off our hands at the end of that season. We went from buyers to sellers that winter, and our greatest asset at the time was our ace, Max Scherzer. We flipped Scherzer to Ravenswood, getting Judge (and Refsnyder and Stephen Matz) in return.

We spent the entire 2016 rebuilding for the 2017 season. That's when Flagstaff GM Greg Newgard came calling. He dangled part-time ace Guerra in front of my face, and I simply couldn't resist taking the bait. Guerra posted a 4.08 ERA in 130+ innings. Meanwhile, Judge became a surprise overnight sensation and is now an annual MVP candidate and the face of the Outlaws franchise for the next seven years.

#2 Max Scherzer
Acquired: 2005 midseason free agent draft, round 5
Trade: (2006) Scherzer and Ray Durham to Corona for Jay Bruce

With my fifth (and last) pick in the mid-year "farm draft" in 2005, I took a gamble on a college sophomore from the University of Missouri. A little more than a year later, in the middle of my first-ever losing season, I traded Durham to the contending Corona franchise in exchange for top prospect Jay Bruce. It was a sensible trade, given that Durham was a star who could help a contending team, and Bruce was the type of prospect a rebuilding team like my own would covet.

...But why on earth did I "throw in" Scherzer? Beats me.

Bruce became a top-ten prospect in 2007, and was the #1 prospect in baseball in 2008. Naturally, by the time he finally reached the big leagues, I had traded him, too! Meanwhile, Scherzer was traded yet again in 2008 before he finally settled in with the Atlanta Fire Ants organization. He pitched five seasons in Atlanta before the Cowtippers reacquired him in 2014 as a free agent at the bargain-basement salary of $14 million. To date, he has won 130 games with a 3.55 ERA. He won back-to-back Cy Young awards in 2016 and 2017 -- one in the OL, the other in the EL.

#1 Justin Verlander
Acquired: 2003 farm draft, 8th round
Trade: (2003) Verlander and Scott Shields to Akron for Guillermo Mota and Kris Honel

Verlander was only a sophomore at Old Dominion University when I drafted him in 2003. I took one look at the numbers he was posting and decided he was worth a flier. Less than three months later, I traded him during an apparently hypnotic haze. I honestly can't remember why I traded him. I recall Shields got off to a terrible start (10+ IP, 16 H, 12 ER), and Mota (12 IP, 14 H, 7 ER) wasn't doing so hot for Akron, either. So D.J. and I were trading one problem child for another.

Mota (53 IP, 2.89 ERA) pitched pretty well as a Cowtipper, but Shields (40 IP, 1.80 ERA) pitched even better for Akron. If the trade had ended there, I'd say it made sense for both sides, but Akron definitely got the better end of the deal (especially since Shields was $1.5 million cheaper.)

So, why "throw in" Verlander and Honel? I suppose at the time, Honel was the better bet to have a stellar career. He was ranked #73 on Baseball America's top prospects list, and was coming off a season at Low-A in which he struck out 152 batters in 153+ innings as a 19-year-old, with a peachy 2.82 ERA. Maybe the thinking was that Honel-for-Verlander would make up that $1.5 million difference...in favor of Salem?

The rest, as they say, is history. To date, Verlander has won 165 games in his twelve-year BDBL career (nine of them with Akron), with a 3.65 ERA. He won a Cy Young award in 2012, and will undoubtedly be named to the BDBL Hall of Fame once he retires, wearing an Akron cap. Honel, meanwhile, never threw a pitch in the BDBL.

*** 

Just for giggles, here is what our team would look like today if only I hadn't been such an idiot and kept the prospects we gave away for nothing:

C: Francisco Cervelli
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Jose Ramirez
3B: Kris Bryant / Alex Bregman
SS: Carlos Correa / Trea Turner
LF: Michael Conforto
CF: Aaron Hicks / Stephen Piscotty
RF: Aaron Judge

P: Max Scherzer
P: Justin Verlander
P: Stephen Strasburg
P: Gerrit Cole
P: Aaron Nola

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

2019 Free Agent Draft Post-mortem

The free agent auction and draft went nothing like we planned. Of course, this is the 21st year I have repeated that sentence. We went into the auction in a great position. We had a full pitching staff and a full offense with the exception of a right-hand-hitting first baseman to platoon with Mitch Moreland. We also had $28.3 million to spend on just seven roster spots. That gave us a tremendous amount of flexibility. As it turned out, we needed every bit of it.

$8 million of our $28.3 million budget was earmarked for two players well before the auction began. Because we had the number one pick in every round of the draft, we determined that we would make a third-round selection at $5 million no matter what else took place beforehand. We also identified Ramon Laureano as a "must-have" player as the first pick in the sixth round at $3 million. We had a temporary moment of panic when he was listed among the top-50 in VORP, but when he fell out of that top-50, we knew we could get him in that slot.

Plan A: Spend most of the remaining $20.3 million on one stud pitcher.

There were five stud pitchers in this year's auction: Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw. We ranked those five in that order. The original plan was to throw a $14 million bid at each of them, with the belief that at least one of those bids would stick. However, as D-Day drew closer we began to reevaluate those five. Given the ages and injury histories of Verlander, Greinke, and Kershaw, we couldn't justify throwing that much money at them and locking them into three-year deals. So we moved those three out of that first tier and placed them into a "backup plan" tier.

We placed a half-hearted $12 million bid on Verlander in the first day of the auction and were not disappointed when we lost that bid. The player we really wanted, more than any other player available this winter, was Sale. The following day, we placed our $14 million bid on Sale. Then, just to be safe, we upped our bid to $15 million later that day. That would have required sacrificing a few of our needs later in the draft, but we felt it would have been worth it.

Unfortunately for us, both Jim Doyle and Tony Badger were hell-bent on spending 90% of their cash on one pitcher, leaving the rest of their rotations barren. Doyle won the bid for Sale at a whopping $16 million. Onto Plan B.

Plan B: Lock up that platoon first baseman at $5 million, and still have enough for a $14 million bid on Corbin later in the auction.

Several players would have fit that bill as the right-handed half of a platoon at first base, including Jedd Gyorko, Ben Zobrist, and C.J. Cron. As fate would have it, all three went for $5 million, and all three returned to their former teams with the home-field-discount tie-breaker.

Onto Plan C...

Plan C: Get Matt Carpenter.

By day five of the auction, we had committed to signing Patrick Corbin. We made half-hearted bids to Greinke and Kershaw and lost both, leaving Corbin as the only ace remaining on the board. We knew, however, that Badger was hell-bent on spending his $15 million on one pitcher, and that Corbin would be his target. So to avoid that bidding war, we decided we would go in the opposite direction. Instead of building a championship starting rotation, we would build a championship lineup.

Carpenter was the best full-time hitter available in the auction, and one of the only decent hitters under the age of 35. We didn't need his bat against right-handers, but we would certainly find a place for him. Under the worst-case scenario, we could simply trade Moreland to fill some other need.

The question was: how much should we bid? There was no need to waste our $14 million max bid, given the salary someone like Carpenter would normally fetch in the auction. However, because the supply of quality hitting was so low in this auction, we knew there would be price inflation. We submitted what we thought would be the winning bid of $9 million.

As the auction came to a close, the league speculated whether anyone would dare go "Type H" for Carpenter. I felt pretty good about my $9 million bid at that point. In fact, I thought we may get him for as low as $7 million. Or even $6 million. I began to mentally reallocate those "savings" to other areas of need.

Then the auction ended. And Jeff Paulson was named as the winning bidder. Because of course.

Plan D: Err...how about Justin Turner?

Turner was the best hitter in this year's draft class, but as he is rated only at third base, we had no use for him. That position was already jam-packed by Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Christian Villanueva, and Kike Hernandez. But we still needed a platoon first baseman. The only remaining free agents that could possibly fit that bill were Joey Votto, C.J. Cron, and Ryan Braun.

Unfortunately, Cron was in the same auction lot as Turner. We had no choice but to bid for both, but I had a queasy feeling that Cron's former team, the Sea Cats, would bid the $5 million max that would force me to go "Type H" if I wanted to fill that platoon position. That wasn't going to happen. I had zero interest in Braun, and Votto's numbers simply wouldn't play well in our ballpark, so I placed a $7 million bid on Turner. Imagine my surprise when we won the bid for a meager $5.5 million.

Plan E: GET PATRICK CORBIN!!

Our winning bid for Turner left us with $22.8 million to spend on six players. Two of those slots were already reserved at a combined $8 million. That left us with a maximum of $14.5 million to bid on Corbin. So that's what we did.

And predictably, Badger, hell-bent on spending $15 million on one pitcher, won the bid.

Plan F: Spread it around.

Our losing bid for Corbin was the end of our auction. We toyed with the idea of bidding big on Andrelton Simmons, and then using him as a super utility guy around the diamond, but discarded that notion fairly quickly.

We didn't get Sale. We didn't get Corbin. We didn't get Carpenter. But we did get the best hitter (PA for PA) available, and we did have plenty of money left to spend. So here's what we did with it:

Taylor Rogers

We waffled back and forth between Rogers and Dereck Rodriguez for weeks. When we lost the bid for Corbin, we assumed we would need Rodriguez's innings for our starting rotation, but a second calculation proved otherwise. We can make do with what we have. Rogers not only fills a bullpen need for us this year, but we believe he will be an asset next year as well. He transformed himself midway through last season and became one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in the second half. If he can continue that trend, he could be 2019's version of Josh Hader.

Ryan Brasier

It is insane to pay $5 million for a 31-year-old pitcher who tossed only 34 innings in MLB last season. But Brasier posted some pretty insane numbers, and they will come in handy -- especially if we make it to the postseason. He held right-handers to a .313 OPS, which is just flat-out insane. We thought about waiting until the $3 million rounds to snag him, but knew one of the vultures would have swooped in before we had the chance.

Evan Gattis

Yes, he's old and slow and fat. Yes, he hit just .226, posted a sub-.300 OBP, and strikes out way too often. But he also hit 25 home runs and was the best offensive "catcher" available in a putrid draft class for catchers. He won't see much playing time as Francisco Cervelli's backup, but every team needs a backup catcher at some point. Sure, it would have been nice to know on Day Two of the auction that Tyler Flowers would have gone for only $3 million, but that's now this works.

Ramon Laureano

As I wrote above, we identified Laureano as a "must-have" very early in the winter. He only played two months in the big leagues last year, but what an impact he made in such a short time. He established himself as an elite glove in center field, with arguably the best outfield arm in MLB. Offensively, he reminds us of a right-handed Odubel Herrera: .250-.260 batting average, plenty of walks, lots of strikeouts, 15-20 home run power, 15-25 steals. Just 24 years old, there is a ton of room in his profile for breakout potential.

Trevor May

May missed the entire 2017 season after Tommy John surgery. When he returned, he was just about lights-out. It's a small sample, but in 25 innings, he allowed just four walks and struck out 36. It looks as though he will remain in the bullpen, where we feel he has the stuff to be a dominant reliever.

Sunday, January 6, 2019

2019 Salem Farm Report

Ah, if only we had held onto (insert name of elite, Hall-of-Fame-bound superstar prospect here), the Salem farm would rank among the top systems in the entire BDBL and we would rule the league for the next decade! But alas, I must maintain my league-wide-recognized reputation as the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL and sprinkle all of our superstar prospect seeds throughout the kingdom so that everyone may share in my benevolence and wisdom.

Here is what is left of our farm system: 

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 20). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

Background: Rutschman led the Oregon State Beavers to a College World Series title last year, and then led all Team USA hitters in all three triple-slash categories during the summer. He is the consensus choice to become the #1 overall pick in the upcoming 2019 MLB Amateur Draft in June. Scouts give him top grades for his defense and arm behind the plate (both graded 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale.) He also carries a plus hit tool from both sides of the plate.

Stats: As a sophomore at OSU, Rutschman hit .408/.505/.628, with 22 doubles, 9 home runs, and more walks (53) than strikeouts (40). In nine games with Team USA, he slashed .355/.432/.516 with five doubles.

The Future: If he isn't drafted with the first overall pick this summer, it means something went terribly wrong. Among the Class of 2019, Rutschman is in a tier all by himself. He should move quickly through the minor leagues and eventually become the Catcher of the Future the Salem franchise has been anticipating since tabbing Ben Davis with that label way back in 1999.

2. Nick Madrigal, 2b
Born: March 5, 1997 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-7. Wt: 165. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2017.

Background: The fourth overall pick of last year's MLB draft, Madrigal has unworldly bat control -- which will either be his ticket to success or his demise. Because of his diminutive size, ability to hit to all fields, defensive prowess, and gritty gamy-ness, he has drawn comparisons to Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve.

Stats: Madrigal missed most of the first half of the season during his junior year at Oregon State. When he returned, he didn't skip a beat. In fact, he didn't strike out once during his first month back in the lineup. He finished the season with a line of .367/.428/.511, with 16 extra-base hits in only 42 games, and just seven strikeouts. In his three-year career with OSU (basically a full MLB season's worth of games), he hit .361/.422/.502, with 221 hits in 612 at-bats, 40 doubles, 11 triples, 8 home runs, 39 steals, 58 walks, and just 37 strikeouts.

The Future: Madrigal was expected to hit the ground running when he turned pro. Instead, he struggled a bit. He did hit .303 with a respectable .353 on-base percentage, but with only 7 extra-base hits, resulting in a .348 slugging percentage. The future is still very bright, but he needs to become more aggressive at the plate and prove he can hit for occasional power if he's going to become a full-time player in the major leagues.

3. Danny Jansen, c
Born: April 15, 1995 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 225. Acquired: trade, winter, 2019

Background: We originally acquired Jansen in the second round of the 2018 winter farm draft. Because we can't have nice things, we traded him to Cleveland later that year in exchange for Tommy Hunter. We then re-acquired Jansen this winter as part of the big Gary Sanchez trade.

Stats: Jansen has proven ability to consistently get on base and hit for occasional power. He hit .323/.400/.484 at three different minor league levels in 2017, and followed that with a .275/.390/.473 showing in Triple-A last year. His season culminated with a MLB trial, where he hit .247/.347/.432 in 32 games.

The Future: All indications are that Jansen will be given a shot as the Opening Day catcher for Toronto this year. He has some competition with Luke Maile and Reese McGuire, and the veteran Russ Martin is still hanging around. Still, Jansen is the favorite at this point to get most of the playing time. With Francisco Cervelli signed to another season for us in 2020, we can afford it if Jansen isn't ready to take over for us next year. We'd prefer it, however, if he won the job, kept it all season, and performed as well as he has in the past two seasons.

4. Will Smith, c
Born: March 28, 1995 (age 23). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 192. Acquired: 2nd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: If there is one thing we have on the Salem farm, it is depth behind the plate. Of our three catching prospects, Smith may have the best defensive tools. Ironically, because of the presence of Keibert Ruiz in the Dodgers system, Smith may end up switching positions. In 2018, he played roughly half his innings at third base, where he is said to be an average defender. Smith was a first round pick by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft. He is currently ranked as the #29 prospect in baseball by FanGraphs -- the highest-ranked player selected in the 2019 farm draft.

Stats: For his career, Smith has hit .236/.342/.420. Last season, at the Double-A level, he hit .264/.358/.532, with 19 home runs.

The Future: The scouting reports seem mixed when it comes to Smith. He will likely never hit for a high average, but he has plenty of power potential. If he sticks behind the plate, his combination of power and defense would make him a valuable asset. At third base, however, it remains to be seen if his bat can carry his glove.

5. Luis Garcia, ss
Born: October 1, 2000 (age 18). B-T: B-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 170. Acquired: 1st round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Not to be confused with the Washington Nationals prospect with the same name, this Luis Garcia was considered to be among the top prospects in last year's Latin American/J2 class. The scouting report on him was that he was capable of elite defense, but there were questions about his bat. As it turned out, his bat seemed just fine. Garcia was challenged with an assignment to the full-season Gulf Coast League and played the entire season as a 17-year-old. In the end, he was named the #1 prospect in the league.

Stats: In 168 at-bats, Garcia hit a league-leading .369, with a .433 OBP and .488 slugging percentage. He racked up 15 extra base hits (1 home run) and owned an impressive 15/21 BB/K ratio.

The Future: It's a fool's game to project the future for a 17-year-old kid. Over the next year, Garcia could follow in former Cowtipper Wander F'ing Franco's footsteps and leap into the top tier of prospects. Or he could follow in former Cowtipper Adrian Rondon's footsteps and fall off the face of the planet. At this point, it's a coin flip. But if I trade him, then it's a 100% certainty that he will become the next Alex Rodriguez.

6. Jackson Kowar, p
Born: Oct 4, 1996 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 180. Acquired: via trade, winter 2019.

Background: Kowar was selected in the first round by the Kansas City Royals last summer after a stellar career with the University of Florida. Tall and lanky, he owns a fastball and change-up that both grade in the 55/60 range.

Stats: Last season with Florida, Kowar struck out 115 batters in 113 innings, with 101 hits allowed, 43 walks, and a 3.04 ERA. In his pro debut, he posted a 3.42 ERA in the Low-A Sally League, with 19 hits and 12 walks allowed in 26+ innings, and 22 K's.

The Future: At this point, Kowar is more projection than performance. He needs to refine his pitches and improve his command and control. The tools are all there for him to become a top-tier pitching prospect, but there is still a long way to go.

7. Spencer Howard, p
Born: July 28, 1996 (age 22). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Drafted in the second round of the 2017 MLB draft out of Cal Poly, Howard made significant strides last season that are obscured by his overall numbers. Blessed with a fastball that can touch 100mph, a power slider, and two other pitches that grade as average, Howard has the tools to become a frontline starting pitcher. He simply needs to put it all together for a full season.

Stats: Overall, Howard posted a 3.78 ERA last season, with a 40/147 BB/K ratio in 112 innings. From July 1st to the end of the season, however, he posted a 2.36 ERA, with a 20/71 ratio in 53 innings. He then capped off the season with a no-hitter in the playoffs.

The Future: If Howard can continue to build on what he accomplished in the second half of last season, the sky is the limit. He will be challenged at the Double-A level in 2019, which is where we'll see what he's really made of.

8. Jhon Torres, of
Born: March 29, 2000 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 199. Acquired: 9th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: A prototypical power-hitting right fielder, Torres split his time between the rookie Arizona League and Gulf Coast League last season following a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals. He was named the #2 prospect in the former and #6 in the latter.

Stats: In his career, Torres has hit .286/.383/.462, with 16 doubles, 13 homers, and a 47/78 BB/K ratio in 346 at-bats.

The Future: As far as 18-year-old lottery tickets go, Torres poses less of a risk than most. In particular, his ability to hit for power while maintaining a healthy BB/K ratio suggests that he is an intelligent hitter with some idea of what he is doing when he steps into the box. The only question is whether he will continue to develop in 2019 or slide backward.

9. Jeter Downs, ss
Born: July 27, 1998 (age 20.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 180. Acquired: 5th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: How could we not love a shortstop named Jeter? Downs was a supplemental first round pick in the 2017 MLB draft. He was ranked the 8th-best prospect in the Class A Midwest League by Baseball America. He's an above-average athlete with plus-speed and above-average pop for a middle infielder.

Stats: Last year, Downs hit .257/.351/.402, with 13 homers and 37 steals in 455 at-bats. In his career (roughly a full season at 170 games), he has hit .260/.356/.408, with 19 homers, 26 doubles, 45 steals, and a 79/135 BB/K ratio.

The Future: Downs was traded to the Dodgers this winter in the big Puig/Wood/Kemp deal, which means LA must think highly of him. The consensus opinion is that Downs will not stick at shortstop, which likely means a move to third base given his plus arm strength. The question is whether he has enough bat to carry that position.


10. Lenny Torres, p
Born: October 15, 2000 (age 28.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: 8th round, 2019 winter farm draft.

Background: Torres was one of the youngest players selected in the 2018 MLB draft. Chosen in the supplemental first round by the Cleveland Indians, he was assigned to the Arizona League, where he more than held his own as a 17-year-old.

Stats: In only six starts and 15+ innings, Torres allowed 14 hits and 4 walks, striking out 22.

The Future: Torres played mostly at shortstop in high school, so pitching is still relatively new to him. Given that, it's even more impressive to see what he was able to do in his first exposure to pro hitters. Granted, it's a small sample size, but it's still encouraging.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Trading Season

The 2019 winter trading season is upon us. With the World Series out of the way, this means it is time to announce all of the deals we've made during the "quiet period." Today, we announce five trades that have filled some holes and provided us with some much-needed flexibility in the auction/draft.

Trade #1: Yusei Kikuchi to Mission Viejo for Francisco Cervelli.

For our first trade of the winter, we traded a guy we pledged we would never trade. The more things change in Salem, the more they stay the same. With Gary Sanchez sucking the big one this year, we were left with an empty void behind the plate. Cervelli fills that void with arguably the best bat behind the plate outside of J.T. Realmuto. In 404 plate appearances, he hit .259/.378/.431 with well-balanced OPS splits of 803/811. With a salary of just $2 million, and at age 32, it's likely that he can give us another two or three useful years beyond 2019.

Trading Kikuchi is the price we pay for competing immediately. We feel that we have pitching depth in the years to come; therefore Kikuchi was somewhat expendable. We foresee him becoming a very solid #2-#3 starter this coming MLB season, and will be a terrific minimum-wage bargain for the Vigilantes (nee Buffaloes) in 2020.

Trade #2: Gary Sanchez, Adam Cimber, and Max Kepler to Cleveland for Clay Buchholz, Christian Villanueva, and Danny Jansen.

Sanchez was part of our "Untouchables" group that was supposed to form the core of our team for the next several years to come. That all changed this past season when he slumped badly at the plate. What's worse than his offensive woes, however, are his continued defensive struggles. He cut his errors in half (in three-quarters as many innings), but for the second year in a row he led MLB in passed balls. Watching him day-to-day, it just doesn't look as though he's putting any effort into his defense whatsoever. We believe he will hit 40 or more home runs in the 2019 MLB season, but within two years he will become a full-time DH.

We are big fans of Jansen, which is why we drafted him several years ago. We believe he will become a high-on-base batter (not unlike Cervelli) with at least league-average defense behind the plate. The plan is for him to take over as our full-time catcher next season, leaving Cervelli as trade bait. Then, maybe three or four years from now, Adley Rutschman becomes our franchise catcher. (Of course, these long-term plans never seem to materialize in Salem.)

Buchholz (98 IP, 2.01 ERA), who was infamously stolen from us by Tony Chamra last year and now returns to his rightful home, gives us another half-season ace to pair with Anibal Sanchez (137 IP, 2.83 ERA.) Villanueva (.336/.392/.726 vs. LH) gives us a monster platoon at third base with rookie Rafael Devers (.244/.307/.464 vs. RH). That platoon made Eugenio Suarez expendable.

Lastly, ridding ourselves of Kepler's $1.5 million seems like a paltry benefit, but every penny is needed given our #1 pick in every round of the draft.

Trade #3: Jose Quintana to Akron for Matt Wallner.

When we paid $9.5 million for Quintana a year ago, we really thought he would become a first-tier ace for us in 2019. Although he didn't pitch poorly this past MLB season, he didn't pitch nearly as well as we hoped. The 2019 auction features an historic pool of aces: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Miles Mikolas, Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, and Jon Lester to name only a few. That $9.5 million could fetch one of them.

Wallner is yet another former Salem farmhand returning to Salem. He is a highly-regarded college prospect eligible for the 2019 MLB draft. Our farm club is so barren at the moment, he is a welcome addition.

Trade #4: Eugenio Suarez and Yoenis Cespedes to Southern Cal for Trevor Cahill.

When we placed Suarez on the Selling forum, we expected a tidal wave of inquiries for the 27-year-old superstar coming off a career season. Instead, we received a trickle. It was an unimpressive trickle at that. Ultimately, the best offer we received was to rid ourselves of Cespedes' $5.5 million salary (with a guaranteed $6.5 million in 2020) and yet another half-season starter in Cahill.

The addition of Cahill (110 IP, 3.76 ERA) gives us NINE starting pitchers (ten if you count Shohei Ohtani), but only one (Jon Gray) with more than 154 innings. It should be an interesting season managing this pitching staff.

Trade #5: Triston Casas and Bryson Stott to Flagstaff for Enrique Hernandez.

This year's auction class is overflowing with great pitching, but is practically barren when it comes to offense. Only a small handful of quality first basemen and outfielders will be up for bid this winter, and we needed some flexibility to go in either direction. Hernandez (462 PA, .256/.336/.470) gives us that flexibility.

We are very high on Casas and Stott, but sacrifices must be made, as Cowtipper fans know all too well.

After all of this dust settled, we were left with $30.1 million to spend on eight roster spots.

Friday, November 16, 2018

Twenty Years of Disappointment

With the BDBL celebrating our 20th anniversary this year, it seems appropriate to take a look back at the past twenty years of Cowtippers history. If there has been one overarching theme that describes those twenty years in their entirety, it would be our seemingly endless streak of disappointing playoff defeats. Here now are our most disappointing:

9) 2017 OLDS vs. Los Altos

The Undertakers enjoyed a three-year reign of dominance unlike we've ever seen before -- and hopefully will never see again. They were the hands-down, no-doubt-about-it, favorites to win their Division Series last year against the lowly Cowtippers. But I had a strategy, and the strategy seemed to be working. I somehow managed to take that ridiculous team all the way to Game Seven, despite being down three-games-to-one after four games.

Steven Matz was a good pitcher throughout that 2017 season. He went 15-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 145 innings. You could argue that he was my best starter. He was an absolute disaster in that series, however. He allowed seven runs (all earned) in six innings in Game Three, and then five runs (four earned) in six innings in that fateful Game Seven.

We actually managed to make Los Altos ace Chris Sale look human in that final game, but ultimately it was the bullpen that did us in. We managed to touch Kenley Jansen with an RBI base hit in the eighth inning (making it a 5-4 game), but he retired Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, and Odubel Herrera in order in the ninth to close out the one-run win.

Disappointing, but not surprising.

8) 2007 OLDS vs. Ravenswood

The 2007 Cowtippers won 110 games -- eleven more than any other team in the BDBL. They outscored their opponents by 245 runs. No other team that year achieved a runs margin greater than 178. It's safe to say Salem was the best team in the BDBL in 2007. Yet they didn't make it past the Division Series.

The Cowtippers managed to win the first game, 11-4. It was all downhill from there. Four straight losses -- three by a margin of one or two runs. The final game was decided when Salem's Erik Bedard -- who won the OL Cy Young that season -- allowed four runs in six innings. 

7) 2002 World Series vs. Allentown

Game Seven. Tied at 1-1. Our best, most reliable, relief pitcher on the hill. We couldn't have asked for a better place to be during our first-ever World Series appearance, given the fact that we were facing the best team our league had ever seen before. Despite winning 112 games and outscoring our opponents by 344 runs, we were the underdogs. We were fortunate to be in that position. Hell, if not for a fluke 10th inning grand slam home run by a relief pitcher in Game Six, we wouldn't have been in that position in the first place.

What hurts about this loss isn't that we lost. What hurts is how we lost. I lost count of the number of times I have questioned my decisions in that game and wondered if we could have won it only if I had made different decisions.

The top of the ninth opened with Barry Bonds leading off for Allentown. Barry Bonds was pretty good. All he did that year was hit .337/.519/.785 with 66 home runs, 188 runs scored, and 159 ribbies. Incredibly, he was 0-for-3 at that point. I decided to use my LOOGY, Norm Charlton in that situation. That move paid off. Bonds popped out to right.

That brought Manny Ramirez to the plate. Ramirez wasn't nearly as good as Bonds. He only hit .309/.380/.644 with 54 homers and -- get this -- 182 RBI's. I couldn't let the lefty Charlton face the lefty-killing Ramirez. I could have brought in my best reliever, David Weathers. Maybe I should have. No, I definitely should have.

Instead, I saw that righty-killing lefty Robert Fick was on deck. I thought that maybe leaving Charlton in to face Fick would force Tom to bring in a pinch hitter. Then I could bring in Weathers to face his pinch hitter. It's called "over-managing", and I did a lot of that back in the day.

I decided to do something that has been considered taboo in the game of baseball for over a century: I intentionally walked the go-ahead batter. Just as I hoped, Tom brought in righty Ellis Burks, and I oh-so-smartly countered with Weathers. I then watched with horror as Burks doubled to the gap. The slow-footed Ramirez was waved home. The throw arrived...too late.

Someone named "Lincoln" then came in to face my franchise's greatest player, Lance Berkman, in the bottom of the ninth. Berkman whiffed. So did Craig Wilson. Ray Durham then grounded out to short. Game over. Series over. But it's never really over. Not in my head.

6) 2013 World Series vs. Southern Cal

The 2013 Cowtippers seemed like a Team of Destiny. We barely won a spot in the playoffs, winning the OL wildcard in the final series of the season. We barely beat a heavily-favored Undertakers team in the Division Series, winning a nailbiter Game Seven in the 11th inning -- the only Game Seven on record to go into extra innings. We then upset the #1-seeded New Milford Blazers in the OLCS, winning two of the five games by just one run.

The Southern Cal Slyme were a better team by nearly any measurement. It didn't make that year's World Series loss taste any better. It was our FIFTH trip to the World Series. The Baseball Gods owed us one, no? Instead, mostly thanks to the atrocious performance of our franchise pitcher Stephen Strasburg (10.2 IP, 18 H, 13 ER), we upped our World Series record to 0-5.

5) 2010 World Series vs. Allentown

The first time was expected. The second time was devastating. The third time was just an insult. By the fourth time we faced the Allentown Ridgebacks in the BDBL World Series, the joke had grown stale and rotten. If I had the choice, I wouldn't have played at all. I knew the outcome before the first pitch was thrown. I'd seen this movie before. Three times.

Still...there is always a little part of me that thinks: "maybe it'll be different this time."

I had a reason to be optimistic. The Chapter Four trade that brought Zack Greinke to the Cowtippers made us into a much different team. With Greinke, 25-game-winner Felix Hernandez, and the always-reliable Dan Haren, the Cowtippers had a playoffs-caliber starting rotation, combined with a stifling bullpen led by Trevor Hoffman, and an offense that scored over 800 runs.

None of that matters in the playoffs, however. After upsetting both the Undertakers (with a sweep) and Infidels (revenge for 2004) in the Division and LCS, we traveled back to Allentown yet again for yet another World Series matchup. Right away, the series got off to a bad start. One of our three closers, Joe Nathan, had allowed just one home run in 33+ innings during the regular season, but served up a three-run homer to Jorge Posada in the 10th inning of Game One, giving Allentown a walk-off win.

The Ridgebacks held a two-games-to-one advantage in the series when Game Four began. Hernandez (who had a durability rating of Ex) was scheduled to start that game on three days of rest, but was listed as "tired." My choice was between starting a tired Hernandez or a fully-rested Jorge de la Rosa. I opted for the latter, who was absolutely pounded for twelve runs in just four innings.

The rest of that series was as predictable as the rising sun. Four World Series appearances -- all against Allentown -- and four World Series losses. Hilarious.

4) 1999 OLDS vs. Stamford

By nearly every measurement, we had the best team in the Ozzie League -- if not the entire BDBL -- in our inaugural season. We led the Ozzie League in wins, runs scored, and runs differential. We owned the league's MVP, John Olerud, and the league's Cy Young winner, Greg Maddux. If we simply awarded the league championship to the best team, the Salem Cowtippers would have faced the Southern Cal Slyme in our first World Series. But we actually play the games to determine the winner.

The series began on a high note, with our boys winning by a score of 11-1. We dropped the next two games (in a best-of-five series!) to bring us one game away from elimination. As if that weren't bad enough, our ace, Maddux, was forced to leave the game after pitching only two innings in Game Four, thanks to a rain delay. Despite the Baseball Gods' best efforts, we managed to win anyway, forcing a fifth and final game.

Game Five was tied at a score of 2-2 heading into the eighth inning. Because Maddux had thrown only 24 pitches in Game Four, and because there was a one-day break between Games Four and Five, Maddux was ready to start that fifth game. He had thrown over 90 pitches heading into the eighth, but I felt we had to stick with our ace. He recorded one out in that fateful inning before Rafael Palmeiro juiced one over the wall to put Stamford in the lead. Mad Dog then served up back-to-back doubles to score another run before he was pulled. Stamford's closer, John Wetteland, then retired all three batters he faced in the ninth, in order (including MVP Olerud) to clinch the Stamford victory. 

3) 2005 World Series vs. Allentown

In 2002, we lost the World Series to an Allentown Ridgebacks team that ranks among the greatest teams the BDBL has ever seen. Although it was difficult to lose the way we did, it was easy to accept a defeat to such a dominant team. 2005, on the other hand, was supposed to be our turn for payback.

The Cowtippers were undoubtedly the best team in the league that year. We led the BDBL in wins (108), runs scored (964), and runs differential (280). We sailed through the playoffs, defeating Ravenswood in six games and then Sylmar in five. I was so confident about our World Series rematch with Allentown that I began writing an online novel about it: "Five Games in November."

We held the home field advantage that series, and split back-to-back 10-inning games in the first two games at our home field. We lost the second game of that series when our all-world closer, Mariano Rivera, served up two hits. The knife in our gut was a clutch, two-out, RBI double by Brian Roberts that became the winning run of the game. Roberts had hardly played that season, amassing just 194 at-bats and batting .227. Yet, his double in the top of the 10th inning was his fifth hit of the game.

When the series shifted to Allentown, we never dreamed we wouldn't play another game in Salem. Yet that's exactly what happened. We dropped Game Three, lost a 10-7 heartbreaker in Game Four when our always-reliable reliever, Juan Cruz, loaded the bases with three walks and then surrendered a clutch two-out, two-run, double to a pinch hitter. The World Series ended when our arch-nemesis, Randy Johnson, tossed a complete-game shutout, allowing just six hits against an offense that had led the entire BDBL in runs scored.

2) 2004 OLCS vs. Ravenswood

My starting rotation already included Cy Young candidates Barry Zito and Curt Schilling when I added a third: NL Rookie of the Year, Brandon Webb. With all three rated Vg or Ex in durability, I knew they could start each and every game of the postseason. The only possible stumbling block en route to the trophy was the Los Altos Undertakers, but they were conveniently dispatched by the surprising Ravenswood Infidels in the Division Series.

Ravenswood didn't seem like much of a threat. They won "only" 92 games that season (compared to our 104 wins.) They scored 65 fewer runs than we did and allowed 31 more. Confidence was high when the OLCS began. It only grew when we took two of the first three games. Then, Game Four began with three runs scored in the very first inning against Schilling. He ended up with five earned runs (on two homers) in only four innings.

Not to worry, though. We had Webb starting Game Five. He had been lights-out all season, and would finish second in the OL Cy Young balloting a few weeks later. Webb recorded two quick outs to the first two batters in the Ravenswood lineup. Then the floodgates opened. A double, two walks, and three base hits later, we were looking at a 4-0 deficit. For the second game in a row, we were looking at an early deficit and never recovered. Our Cy Young candidate ended up with five earned runs in less than five innings of work.

We then asked Zito to stop the bleeding in Game Six. Instead, he allowed the first five batters he faced to reach base. After getting a sac fly for his first out, he allowed yet another hit before he was pulled from the game. By the time the dust settled, he had allowed SIX earned runs in just one-third of an inning. We went on to lose by a score of 11-4.

1) 2001 OLCS vs. Stamford

2001 was a year of profound tragedy for our country and for me personally. I lost my mother that year after her 21-month battle against cancer. Throughout that season, the BDBL provided me with a much-welcomed escape from reality. I immersed myself into the BDBL universe on a regular basis and truly believed I would be rewarded in the end. I felt as though the universe owed me one. Instead, the universe delivered a swift kick in the balls.

Watching the Stamford Zoots win not only our first BDBL trophy, but the next one as well, left a very bitter taste in my mouth. I wanted that trophy -- badly. By 2001, I was ready to sell my soul for that trophy. Absent that opportunity, I sold every bit of my franchise's future to ensure I would not fail as I had in both of the previous seasons.

I poured my heart and soul into that team. I turned over nearly 100% of my roster the winter before the 2001 season. I made seventeen trades, but I didn't stop there. At the Chapter Two deadline, I added a closer (Keith Foulke) and an all-star catcher (Jason Kendall.) Then, at the final trading deadline, I made my biggest move of the year, adding two MVP-caliber bats (Jeff Kent and Gary Sheffield), sacrificing my best farm players to get them.

The end result was an absolutely stacked roster with the league's top scoring offense. We hit .285/.375/.473 as a team. In addition to Kendall, Kent, and Sheffield, we had Jeff Bagwell (.308/.412/.572, 45 HR), Sammy Sosa (.294/.373/.567, 46 HR), Bobby Abreu (.309/.421/.524), and Lance Berkman (.323/.462/.617). Our lineup was so stacked, Travis Fryman (.341/.420/.541, with 103 RBI) batting seventh. There was NO WAY we could lose.

We swept the Gillette Swamp Rats right out of the OL Division Series. The momentum was undeniable. We were going to sweep our way straight through to our first trophy. There was no doubt in my mind. I took a road trip to New Jersey, so I could play the OL Championship Series head-to-head and face-to-face against my arch-nemesis, Paul Marazita.

I never stood a chance.

The OLCS began with an 8-0 shellacking. My world-beating offense finally managed to score a run in the seventh inning of Game Two en route to a 4-1 loss. The Zoots took a 5-0 lead in Game Three and eventually won 7-3. Then Stamford won Game Four by one run. A four-game sweep. Seventeen years later it still stings.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

2018 Wrap-up

The 2018 regular season is officially in the books. We finished strong with a 19-9 Chapter Six -- our best chapter of the season. Our goal of winning our first division title since 2008 fell short once again, but we're still in the thick of the OL wilcard race. Now we wait to see how the Kansas City Boulevards fare over their last 20 games of the season.

Regardless of how it ends, 2018 will be remembered as a disappointment. This looked like it would be better than a 93-win team when we began the season. Our failure to live up to expectations rests primarily with our performance in one-run games. We finished the season with a record of 21-23 in those tight games, thanks in large part to a bullpen that had an uncanny knack of imploding at the worst-possible times. Had we won only a handful of those games, this year-in-review would have a much different tone.

2018 will also be remembered for the extraordinary number of bone-headed trades I made throughout the season, from beginning to end. It was, by far, the worst year of my 20-year career as GM of this franchise. When it comes to trading, our motto is "Don't Do Stupid Shit." And yet we did -- again and again and again.

The stupid shit began with our very first trade of the season when we sent Blake Parker and Martin Prado to the Flagstaff Outlaws in exchange for Mike Leake. The thinking at the time was that Leake would provide some much-needed innings at a price that we would not have been able to replicate in the auction. His free agent status at the end of this season also meant that we would be off the hook for his contract. Leake did give us innings -- over 200 of them -- but he also posted a useless 4.85 ERA on the season, allowed more hits than innings, and gave us only 15 quality starts. Parker, meanwhile, led the entire BDBL in saves.

Our next stupid trade was sending Jorge Soler to the Granite State Lightning in exchange for Luis Perdomo. The trade itself wasn't bad, since neither Soler nor Perdomo amounted to much. What made it stupid was when we signed Perdomo to a two-year contract at $3 and $4 million. Just to rub additional salt in our wound, Perdomo logged just 44.2 innings in MLB with a 7.05 ERA. Had he pitched just five fewer innings, we could have released him without penalty.

We shopped Hyun-Jin Ryu to every team in the BDBL last winter, and finally found a taker in Bart Chinn. Chinn was rewarded with a pitcher who tossed 82+ innings in MLB with a microscopic ERA of 1.97. Although the player we received in that deal, Matt Joyce, had a terrific season, we'd rather have Ryu at the bargain-basement salary of $100,000.

Our stupid shit continued when Mike Ries took over the Granite State Lightning franchise and we made the same offer to him that we had made countless time to the franchise's former owner, Ryan Glander. Unlike Ryan, Ries listened to me when I said his franchise would be better off without Sonny Gray and his albatross of a contract. If only I had listened to my own advice. Gray (4.90 ERA in MLB) will cost us a whopping $4.6 million to occupy a spot on our reserve roster next season. Worst yet, we can't even cut him, since he's signed through 2021 (at salaries of $6.1M and $7.6M).

Oh, but wait. I'm not done. I saved the best for last. Back in late June, when we were still entertaining fantasies of winning the division, the Niagara Locks were shopping Max Kepler. Because Odubel Herrera was such an unexpected disappointment all season, we needed a strong left-handed bat in center field. I sent Locks GM Mike Ranney a bunch of names I was willing to trade for Kepler, and he responded with one I hadn't listed: Wander Franco. Since Franco was only 16 years old and hadn't yet swung a bat in a professional game, I figured why not? Within a month, Franco shot up the prospect lists into the top 20 and became one of the hottest prospects in baseball. As for Kepler, he posted a batting average and OBP that was nearly identical to Herrera's. Oh, and we will now pay a $1.5 million penalty just to get rid of him this winter.

The Good

We didn't always make shitty trades. In fact, one time we traded somebody named Austin Bergner for Jose Ramirez. True story. You can look it up. Ramirez was, without a doubt, our MVP this season. He hit .306/.371/.538 with 58 doubles, 24 home runs, 112 runs scored, and a team-leading 123.1 runs created. He also swiped 17 bases for good measure and played an above-average second base.

Gary Sanchez led the team with 40 home runs and 104 ribbies and created 109.1 runs. Matt Joyce (.241/.344/.506) ranked #2 on the team in homers, with 28, despite playing almost exclusively against right-handers.

Coming off his career-worst season (5.10 ERA), Stephen Strasburg gave us (arguably) his best season to date. In 191+ innings, he posted a 15-4 record and a 2.25 ERA. He should earn a few Cy Young votes this winter. In the bullpen, we couldn't have asked for more from Mike Montgomery (12-7, 2.21 ERA in 142+ IP), Brad Brach (2.06 ERA in 52+ IP as a 'Tipper), and Tommy Hunter (1.53 ERA in 47 IP for Salem.)

Along with Strasburg, our other franchise pitcher, Jon Gray, also had a stellar season in 2018. In 119+ innings, he went 7-6 with a 2.86 ERA. Unfortunately, it looks like it will be back to the bottom of the rotation for him in 2019.

The Bad

Not only was Sonny Gray a costly pickup for us this year, but his performance (6-3, 4.32 ERA in 75 IP for Salem) hardly warrants the expense. In particular, his numbers against lefties (.312/.368/.532) had no resemblance whatsoever to his MLB numbers (.221/.293/.352). He allowed 6 home runs to left-handers in just 141 at-bats (compared to 7 HR allowed in 281 AB in MLB -- in a much more homer-friendly ballpark.)

We may have a scoreboard problem in Salem. For years, the centerfield scoreboard in Sam Adams Stadium featured the serious game face of Stephen Strasburg. Stras had such an awful 2017 BDBL season we figured we'd change our luck by featuring Andrew Benintendi on that board this season. Benny's rookie season didn't exactly go as planned. He hit just .241/.315/.372 (compared to his MLB numbers of .271/.352/.424.) He hit just 15 home runs (compared to 20 in MLB), and created just 59 runs (compared to 88.1 in MLB.)

Odubel Herrera's splits were backwards in 2018. In MLB, he hit .288/.323/.471 against left-handers and .279/.326/.445 vs. righties. In the BDBL, he hit .312/.368/.426 against lefties and just .239/.295/.367 against righties. If his numbers against right-handers were anywhere NEAR his MLB numbers, we'd still own Wander Franco today.

Like Benintendi, we expected more from Trea Turner in his first full season in the BDBL. Instead, he hit just .248 (nearly 40 points lower than MLB), hit just .183/.231/.211 against lefties, posted a meager OBP of .318 against righties, and hit just 5 home runs (less than half his MLB total.) Most bizarre of all, he was also caught stealing a whopping dozen times in 37 attempts. His 68% success rate paled in comparison to his MLB rate of 85%.

The Ugly

Raisel Iglesias' performance in 2018 defies explanation. In fact, if you were to point a finger at one single player and claim he lost the division for us, Iglesias would be that player. He managed to lose 10 games for us -- which is no easy feat for a relief pitcher. It could even be a BDBL record! Despite pitching in a MUCH friendlier home ballpark, Iglesias' numbers in the BDBL are nowhere near his MLB numbers. His ERA (3.80) is nearly 1.5 points higher than his MLB number. He allowed nearly three times as many home runs in the BDBL as he did in MLB. His numbers against lefties (.287/.355/.553) make him look like an entirely different pitcher than his MLB counterpart (.256/.360/.349.) I shudder to think how many longballs he'll surrender in 2019.

Another baffling performance came from Pedro Strop. His BDBL ERA (5.20) is well over two runs higher than his MLB ERA (2.83). He allowed far more hits and walks than he did in MLB, and his OBP against lefthanders (.353) is nowhere near his MLB number (.265).

All season long, we asked ourselves: what the fuck is wrong with Mitch Moreland? That question remains unsolved. Only a Chapter Six surge saved him from posting a batting average below .200. He finished the season at .207/.269/.371 overall, and hit just .203/.257/.377 against righties (compared to .246/.324/.460 in MLB.) So, what the fuck is wrong with Mitch Moreland? Your guess is as good as mine.

We were beyond thrilled to have landed Yoenis Cespedes for "only" $5.5 million in last winter's free agent auction. We figured not only would he be an asset for us in 2018, but that we were "buying low" on a player who topped 30 homers in the previous two MLB seasons and still had plenty of upside potential at age 32. Boy were we wrong. Not only did Cespedes spend nearly the entire 2018 MLB season on the DL (but managing to get just enough PA's to kick in his contract for next year), but he was all but useless to us this season. He hit just .239/.286/.414 overall, with barely half the number of home runs (9) as he hit in MLB. We were especially counting on his bat against left-handers, but he hit just .214/.245/.480 against them instead. And thanks to his Type-H salary, we get the privilege of signing him to a two-year contract in a few weeks.

Looking Ahead to 2019

Although our 2018 season may not be over just yet, it never hurts to look ahead. Unfortunately, there isn't much to look forward to in 2019. We thought we had suffered an unusual rash of injuries on our pitching staff heading into the 2018 season, but this year we took the art of being injured to a whole new level.

Jose Quintana managed to pitch a whopping 174 innings in MLB this season. Jon Gray tossed 172 innings in MLB this season (posting a 5.12 ERA.) Believe it or not, out of the NINE starting pitchers we have on our roster, those are the only two pitchers who topped 160 innings this season. The next-highest total is Stephen Matz's 154 innings. Then we have three pitchers (Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez, and Sonny Gray) in the 130's. We can squeeze a full season's worth of innings from the pitchers we have only if we include Mike Montgomery's 124 and Felix Pena's 93.

Our bullpen is well-stocked with live arms like Richard Rodriguez (69 IP, 2.47 ERA), Pedro Strop (60 IP, 2.26), Matt Grace (60 IP, 2.87), and Jonathan Holder (66, 3.14). We will likely use yet another injured pitcher, Shohei Ohtani (52 IP, 3.31 ERA) out of the bullpen as well.

Offensively, it seems as though the entire team did as much as they could to destroy their season's worth of effort with the shittiest September possible. Jose Ramirez was hitting over .300 as late as August 19th. He then proceeded to hit .167 the rest of the way, dragging his overall average down to .270. His overall numbers (.270/.387/.552) are still decent, but no longer MVP-caliber.

Eugenio Suarez was also hitting .300 (with a .941 OPS) on August 14th. He hit .236 (with a .756 OPS) the rest of the way. His overall numbers (.283/.356/.526) are also decent, but no longer MVP-caliber.

Andrew Benintendi (.290/.366/.465) and Trea Turner (.271/.344/.416) should be above-average with the bats as well. Odubel Herrera was looking like a potential batting champ in April. He finished the month with a .343 average, and saw it rise to .361 through the middle of May. Then he turned back into a pumpkin and hit .216 the rest of the way. He's a borderline keeper at this point.

Other than that, we have nothing. Gary Sanchez was supposed to be the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Instead, he's as horrible with the bat as he is behind the plate. At best, we can use him against lefties (.229/.354/.518), but we now have to find another catcher, since our backup, Travis d'Arnaud, missed almost the entire season with an injury.

Of course, we can't even use our best hitter in the starting lineup! Shohei Ohtani (.313/.387/1.043) will be the league's best pinch hitter.

At this point, 2019 is looking like a rebuilding year. But you never know.