For the second year in a row, we'll be facing the Akron Ryche in the OL Division Series. Although we defeated them in five games last year, a close look at each one of those games reveals that the series was much closer than it appears on the surface. Needless to say about any team that makes it this far in the season, Akron has a very good team. Which means the margin for error in this series (and every series from here until the end) is razor-thin. This is why we scout ahead.
Akron won 97 games this year, and scored more runs than any other team in the league except the ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers. The Akron lineup includes three major weapons: Ronald Acuna (.295/.387/.587, 49 HR, 151.4 RC), Josh Bell (.292/.364/.578, 41 HR, 125 RC), and Starling Marte (.323/.373/.602, 34 HR, 34 HR, 111.4 RC). To the extent that any of the three has a weakness, Bell struggles a bit against lefties (.243/.319/.536). Otherwise, there is no strategy on the planet that will contain them.
The rest of the Akron roster, for the most part, consists of part-time players with monster splits. David Dahl is a lefty who crushes (.346/.415/.543) lefties. Jesse Winker is a non-factor against lefties (although he did very well in a very small sample), but crushes righties to the tune of .296/.398/.573. Akron has no fewer than NINE players who posted an 800+ OPS against righties this year. Against southpaws, "only" six batters reached that level (in a significant sample.)
We had the best pitching staff in the entire BDBL this year, by several different measurements. This will be an immovable object vs. unstoppable force type of matchup.
On the pitching side, Akron's starters shouldn't provide too many reasons to worry. Patrick Corbin (4.25 ERA in 101+ innings for Akron) was hot and cold after his trade to Akron. He tossed six innings of shutout baseball against us the first time we faced him. Then we lit him up for six runs in five innings in his only other start. Mike Clevinger (4.21 ERA in 134+ IP) and Brandon Woodruff (3.92 ERA in 131 IP) will presumably be the #2 and #3 starters, in either order.
Inning for inning, someone named Jacob Waguespack ended up with the best ERA (3.57) on the Akron team, but he's limited to just six innings in the series. Likewise, Luke Weaver (3.57 ERA) is limited to just five.
The strength of the Akron pitching staff is their bullpen. Scott Oberg (0.31 ERA in 29 IP) was just absolutely insane this year. Will Smith (3.25 ERA in 69+ IP) is also tough, as is Andres Munoz (1.44 ERA in 25 IP). Josh Hader (4.48 ERA in 82+ IP) was supposed to be one of the best relievers in the game, but he badly stumbled this year -- especially in the longballs department. He and Smith are both left-handed, which is something to keep in mind as we make out our roster.
We barely managed to win our season series against Akron, 7-5. Anibal Sanchez was responsible for three of those losses, and he won't be making the trip to the postseason this year. Our tentative rotation will be:
Game 1: Sonny Gray
Game 2: Max Scherzer
Game 3: Stephen Strasburg
Game 4: Jon Gray
Game 5: Sonny Gray
Game 6: Max Scherzer
Game 7: Stephen Strasburg
By the time the series begins, I will likely change my mind and fliip-flop Scherzer and Strasburg. If one of them will have two starts at home, I'd rather it be Scherzer. But looking at their home/road splits, it looks like a wash. I will need to look further into this in Part Two.
Our roster decisions beyond those four starters will likely be fairly easy:
RP: Wendelken
RP: Wick
RP: Cordero
RP: Bummer
Those four are givens. Sean Manaea is our next-best pitcher, but he's only eligible to throw 2 1/3 innings. Still, we may bring him along for no other reason than to pitch to Bell. Sam Dyson deserves a spot in the bullpen. Taylor Rogers was such a disaster, but he is another left-handed option. Felix Pena would be gold against all of Akron's righties. No one else deserves consideration. So, at least two of those spots will go to:
RP: Dyson
RP: Pena
That leaves 15 more for the offense. These guys are no-brainers:
C: Murphy
C: Holaday (only because it's required)
1B: Walker
2B: Ramirez
3B: Devers
SS: Turner
OF: Laureano
OF: Ohtani
OF: Gardner
OF: Senzel
OF: Maybin
That's eleven. Benintendi is usually our starting LF against lefties, but Corbin is SO tough against lefties, it isn't worth giving him a spot in the lineup. Then again, Hader gave up an insane home run rate against lefties, and Akron's home park rewards lefty homers, so it seems logical to keep a spot for Benny.
Aledmys Diaz is useful to have around for his versatility. And Carlos Puello, although severely limited in usage, carries a great bat against lefties, an Ex glove, and he's a decent bunter and runner. Other than the ones I just mentioned, no one else deserves a spot on this roster. So, that's:
OF: Benintendi
OF: Puello
UT: Diaz
That gives us 24 players, total. One more spot to fill. Should it be the ever-shitty Anibal Sanchez, just in case we need someone to pitch in a blowout? Maybe Jake Rogers to pinch hit against Smith or Hader in the late innings? Maybe Taylor Rogers, on the off chance that he might not give up two or three homers every inning he pitches?
Hmm...
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