Trading Deadline + Cutdown Day

It has been the quietest offseason in recent memory for the Cowtippers. We agreed to only three minor trades, and we have less than $5 million to spend on free agents. For all intents and purposes, we could have started the 2021 season several months ago when the projection disk was published. Not much has changed since then.

In our first trade of 2021, we acquired Framber Valdez from the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs in exchange for Dylan Moore and Luis Rodriguez. After we agreed to the deal, I told North Carolina's GM, Ian Hartner, that this deal would come back to bite me, as it felt just like our Wander F'ing Franco deal a few years ago. Back then, Franco, like Rodriguez, had yet to step to the plate a single time as a professional when we traded him. We regretted that deal almost instantly. Valdez doesn't fit a pressing need for us today, but with Stephen Strasburg and Sonny Gray leaving us at the end of this season, we will need all of the arms we can get for 2022. Valdez had a fantastic MLB season in 2020, and we hope it carries through into the next few years.

In our second deal, we filled the gaping void behind home plate by acquiring Christian Vazquez from Great Lakes in exchange for Sean Manaea. Vazquez doesn't have a great projection (.264/.309/.415), but in a very thin catching pool his OPS (barely) ranks among the top-20. We were counting on Manaea for a few spot starts, but those can now be filled by Valdez, instead.

In our third and final trade, we sent Alex Avila packing to the loathsome Allentown Ridgebacks in exchange for Jeimer Candelario. This may be our first-ever trade with the Evil Empire, which makes me feel a bit queasy. Avila owns a great on-base percentage, but doesn't offer much else, so we weren't planning to keep him at $1 million in salary. For half that salary, we get Candelario, who can fill in at the infield corners this year and possibly give us some value next year.

Cutdown Day

We had several very tough decisions to make on Cutdown Day this year. Among them (in no particular order):

• Shohei Ohtani. We have five franchised players already, and did not want to franchise another this year. However, it seems like we have no other choice with Ohtani. The problem is that no one has any clue what he will become in the next few years. Will he ever pitch again? If he doesn't, is he strictly a DH? On the one hand, he's a tremendous player, regardless, and it would be a shame if we didn't lock him up long-term. On the other hand, doing so could be a huge risk. We saw what happened last year when he was a DH-only, and it wasn't pretty. However, with the way MLB is heading, it's likely that the BDBL will have no choice but to adopt the dreaded DH within the next two years. In the end, we made the only logical choice we had: we locked him up long-term (six years) as a franchise player, ensuring as little risk and expense as possible.
• Ramon Laureano. Who is he? Is he the Ramon Laureano of 2019 or 2020? The 2019 version is an easy four-year signing. The 2020 version is a one-and-dump. At $3 million in salary, signing the 2020 version to four years could prove very costly. But missing out on the 2019 version at only $6 million is equally costly. In the end, we took the middle road and signed him to three years.
• Nick Senzel. He was the #2 overall prospect in the game of baseball not long ago. You'd think he'd be a no-brainer long-term signing at age 25. But given that he's spent nearly his entire MLB career either injured or under-performing, it now seems like a no-brainer to limit our risk as much as possible. With that, we signed him to four years, which means he will be in the prime of his career when this contract ends. Hopefully, we don't kick ourselves for that.
• Framber Valdez. Again, which version are we signing: the 2020 version or the pre-2020 version? He was a different pitcher last year than he ever showed before. Was it because he made some adjustments and had a lasting breakthrough? Or was it all a mirage? We're taking a gamble that his breakthrough is for real, and signed him to four years, giving him a salary of $6 million in year four.
• Christian Walker. He managed to sustain his 2019 breakthrough last year, but there are a few red flags that give us pause going forward. One of those red flags is that he turns 30 this year. It isn't exactly a death sentence for a player of his type, but it's something to consider. Better safe than sorry. We signed him to three years.

2020 Playoffs Diary: Damage Report

Let's not pussyfoot around it: Stephen Strasburg cost us the postseason. His two shitty starts in the series absolutely buried us. He put us in an impossible situation, and gave us no chance to win. The guy has been good (not great) for us for a long time, but he really shit the bed yesterday. He put us in a 8-1 hole after only four innings in Game Two, and then coughed up four first-inning runs in Game Six.

But let's not let Max Scherzer off the hook, either. We paid $15.5 million for him in January, with the expectation that he would put our pitching staff over the top. We envisioned a rotation with four legitimate aces, and assumed that would be extremely difficult to beat in the postseason -- especially in a season where offense is so out of control. Mad Max made one start in the Division Series and coughed up five runs in only six innings. He was grossly out-pitched by Brandon Woodruff, who earns a minimum-wage salary.

There is plenty of blame to throw around. Jose Ramirez went 1-for-21 (.048) in the series, and committed three crucial errors in six games. Tom Murphy hit a pair of homers, but went just 3-for-18 in the series, and committed two errors himself. Shohei Ohtani and Carlos Puello went 0-for-11, combined.

It was just a disastrous series all around. A true team "effort." And now we turn to 2021.

2020 Playoffs Diary: Scouting Akron, Part Two

 What more can we possibly learn about the Akron Ryche before our series begins?

• D.J. Sheppard doesn't steal very often. When he does, it's almost exclusively with Starling Marte or Ronald Acuna, and it's almost always a steal of second base.
• Defensively, the Ryche didn't pick off too many baserunners this year, with the exception of one team: the Salem Cowtippers. They caught us twice. We need to be careful with that.
• The vast majority of Akron's steals came with two outs.
• Austin Riley could be a real pain in the ass in this series. He's eligible for only 8 PA's in the series, but he hit .304/.391/.759 against lefties. He could be a major weapon off of the bench if we have Bummer on the hill. We need to make sure we use Bummer in situations where a home run wouldn't kill us or where we have a right-hander all warmed up in case Riley is called upon.
• Looking at this lineup, there aren't many platoon advantages to exploit. We're best off simply throwing our best pitcher out there regardless of which arm he throws with.
• Aside from Scott Oberg, the other pitchers in the Akron bullpen can be exploited. Smith struggles against power righties. Clippard is one of those weird reverse-split right-handers who gets eaten up by righties. (Maybin would be a perfect match-up there.) Hader's problems are well-documented. Oberg is a pain in the ass. He's this year's version of Blake Treinen.
• It is extremely easy to run on Akron's pitchers. Opposing teams were successful 83% of the time against Akron as a whole, but a perfect 4-for-4 against Stroman, a perfect 9-0 against Clevinger, a perfect 4-0 against Corbin (during his time with Akron), and a perfect 6-0 against Jordan Yamamoto. The only pitchers who held runners in check were Woodruff (0-for-3) and Waguespack (1-for-3). Francisco Mejia (92% opponents steal rate) was just pathetic in that area.
• Don't run on Starling Marte (12 assists) or Acuna (15)...but we already knew that.

Our game plan is very straightforward. No tricks or gimmicks with our pitching staff. No "bullpenning" or any other weird crap. We'll throw our best starters at them: Sonny, Stras, Max, and Jon. They will go as long as they can. Then we'll hand the game over to Wendelken, Bummer, and Wick. If we need a crucial out against Acuna, that's Pena's job. If we need someone to serve up a three-run homer, maybe we'll bring Taylor Rogers along for the ride.

Which brings me to my next topic. Who is our 25th man?

Our choices are Sean Manaea (limited to 2 /13 innings), Taylor Rogers, and Jake Rogers. I don't see a scenario where Taylor Rogers helps us, so that boils it down to Manaea and Jake Rogers. It usually helps to have more than one left-hander on the pitching staff, but that doesn't seem to be an asset against Akron. The only lefty on their roster who can't hit lefties is Jesse Winker. Manaea does pitch as well (if not better) against righties, so maybe he could be used against one of their five switch hitters. On the other hand, Jake Rogers would be a nice pinch hit bat against Smith or Hader.

It's a tough choice. All things being equal, I'd rather have the extra arm, just in case. However, Murphy is limited to only 22 PA's for the series, and 15 PA's vs. lefties and 18 PA's vs. righties. He won't last through a seven-game series. If Patrick Corbin pitches that Game Six or Game Seven, who would be rather have catching: Haladay or Rogers? No contest.

Our Division Series roster is now set. Let the games begin.

2020 Playoffs Diary: Scouting Akron, Part One

For the second year in a row, we'll be facing the Akron Ryche in the OL Division Series. Although we defeated them in five games last year, a close look at each one of those games reveals that the series was much closer than it appears on the surface. Needless to say about any team that makes it this far in the season, Akron has a very good team. Which means the margin for error in this series (and every series from here until the end) is razor-thin. This is why we scout ahead.

Akron won 97 games this year, and scored more runs than any other team in the league except the ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers. The Akron lineup includes three major weapons: Ronald Acuna (.295/.387/.587, 49 HR, 151.4 RC), Josh Bell (.292/.364/.578, 41 HR, 125 RC), and Starling Marte (.323/.373/.602, 34 HR, 34 HR, 111.4 RC). To the extent that any of the three has a weakness, Bell struggles a bit against lefties (.243/.319/.536). Otherwise, there is no strategy on the planet that will contain them.

The rest of the Akron roster, for the most part, consists of part-time players with monster splits. David Dahl is a lefty who crushes (.346/.415/.543) lefties. Jesse Winker is a non-factor against lefties (although he did very well in a very small sample), but crushes righties to the tune of .296/.398/.573. Akron has no fewer than NINE players who posted an 800+ OPS against righties this year. Against southpaws, "only" six batters reached that level (in a significant sample.)

We had the best pitching staff in the entire BDBL this year, by several different measurements. This will be an immovable object vs. unstoppable force type of matchup.

On the pitching side, Akron's starters shouldn't provide too many reasons to worry. Patrick Corbin (4.25 ERA in 101+ innings for Akron) was hot and cold after his trade to Akron. He tossed six innings of shutout baseball against us the first time we faced him. Then we lit him up for six runs in five innings in his only other start. Mike Clevinger (4.21 ERA in 134+ IP) and Brandon Woodruff (3.92 ERA in 131 IP) will presumably be the #2 and #3 starters, in either order.

Inning for inning, someone named Jacob Waguespack ended up with the best ERA (3.57) on the Akron team, but he's limited to just six innings in the series. Likewise, Luke Weaver (3.57 ERA) is limited to just five.

The strength of the Akron pitching staff is their bullpen. Scott Oberg (0.31 ERA in 29 IP) was just absolutely insane this year. Will Smith (3.25 ERA in 69+ IP) is also tough, as is Andres Munoz (1.44 ERA in 25 IP). Josh Hader (4.48 ERA in 82+ IP) was supposed to be one of the best relievers in the game, but he badly stumbled this year -- especially in the longballs department. He and Smith are both left-handed, which is something to keep in mind as we make out our roster.

We barely managed to win our season series against Akron, 7-5. Anibal Sanchez was responsible for three of those losses, and he won't be making the trip to the postseason this year. Our tentative rotation will be:

Game 1: Sonny Gray
Game 2: Max Scherzer
Game 3: Stephen Strasburg
Game 4: Jon Gray
Game 5: Sonny Gray
Game 6: Max Scherzer
Game 7: Stephen Strasburg

By the time the series begins, I will likely change my mind and fliip-flop Scherzer and Strasburg. If one of them will have two starts at home, I'd rather it be Scherzer. But looking at their home/road splits, it looks like a wash. I will need to look further into this in Part Two.

Our roster decisions beyond those four starters will likely be fairly easy:

RP: Wendelken
RP: Wick
RP: Cordero
RP: Bummer

Those four are givens. Sean Manaea is our next-best pitcher, but he's only eligible to throw 2 1/3 innings. Still, we may bring him along for no other reason than to pitch to Bell. Sam Dyson deserves a spot in the bullpen. Taylor Rogers was such a disaster, but he is another left-handed option. Felix Pena would be gold against all of Akron's righties. No one else deserves consideration. So, at least two of those spots will go to:

RP: Dyson
RP: Pena

That leaves 15 more for the offense. These guys are no-brainers:

C: Murphy
C: Holaday (only because it's required)
1B: Walker
2B: Ramirez
3B: Devers
SS: Turner
OF: Laureano
OF: Ohtani
OF: Gardner
OF: Senzel
OF: Maybin

That's eleven. Benintendi is usually our starting LF against lefties, but Corbin is SO tough against lefties, it isn't worth giving him a spot in the lineup. Then again, Hader gave up an insane home run rate against lefties, and Akron's home park rewards lefty homers, so it seems logical to keep a spot for Benny.

Aledmys Diaz is useful to have around for his versatility. And Carlos Puello, although severely limited in usage, carries a great bat against lefties, an Ex glove, and he's a decent bunter and runner. Other than the ones I just mentioned, no one else deserves a spot on this roster. So, that's:

OF: Benintendi
OF: Puello
UT: Diaz

That gives us 24 players, total. One more spot to fill. Should it be the ever-shitty Anibal Sanchez, just in case we need someone to pitch in a blowout? Maybe Jake Rogers to pinch hit against Smith or Hader in the late innings? Maybe Taylor Rogers, on the off chance that he might not give up two or three homers every inning he pitches?

Hmm...

2020 Salem Season in Review

It's all over but the crying, as they say. After 20 years of November tears of sadness, we cried tears of joy in 2019. Incredibly, we now stand in line to defend our title with another postseason appearance. My annual Playoffs Diaries are to come, but for now, let's look back at the regular season, which just recently concluded for us.

The Good

Rafael Devers (.318/.369/.583) had a hot-and-cold season (see below), but he led the Salem offense in runs created (145.3), homers (40), runs scored (127), and RBI's (118).

Trea Turner (.301/.351/.488) enjoyed a phenomenal season. He had a whopping SEVENTY extra-base hits, including 17 homers and a team-leading 50 doubles. He also led the team with 31 stolen bases, but was caught an unusually high (15) number of times.

Sonny Gray (20-7, 3.06 ERA in 191+ IP) was outstanding from beginning to end. A true ace, and possibly a Cy Young. (See below.)

Rowan Wick (0.50 ERA in 35+ IP), J.B. Wendelken (1.83 ERA in 34+ IP), and Aaron Bummer (2.01 ERA in 44+ IP) were the Holy Trinity of relief pitching in 2020. Together, they combined to go 14-3 with 27 saves. Throw Jimmy Cordero (2.75 ERA in 39+ IP) into that mix, and we have a pretty decent bullpen for the postseason.

Max Scherzer (15-9, 3.57 ERA in 189 IP, 255 K) and Stephen Strasburg (16-8, 3.85 ERA, 285 K) managed to be both highly-effective and highly-disappointing at the same time. Given the nightmare that Washington's ballpark was in MLB '19, we really thought both pitchers would enjoy pitching in Salem this year. They were good...but not great.

Jose Ramirez (.277/.343/.550) began the MLB 2019 season in a massive slump. Then, just as he began to come out of it, he injured himself for the remainder of the season. Frankly, we didn't expect much from him this year, but he surprised the hell out of us. He ranked second on the team in runs created (106.3), behind only Devers. He was one of three Cowtippers to hit 40+ doubles, and was one of three to hit 30+ home runs. He also swiped 27 bases in 30 attempts.

We assumed that Christian Walker (.265/.340/.479) would suffer a bit from Salem's ballpark factors, but he also surprised us. He was one of only three Salem batters to create 100+ runs (103.8), and he just missed becoming the fourth Salem hitter with 30+ homers (with 29). He also played Ex defense at first base, which was huge for us, with Ramirez playing out of position all year.

Ramon Laureano (.272/.321/.545) joined the 30-30 club with 34 doubles and 33 homers. He also stole 18 bases in 21 attempts and gunned down 10 runners with his cannon arm in the outfield.

Jon Gray (9-6, 3.51 ERA in 164+ IP) was a pleasant surprise. He was so good at one point that he won the Pitcher of the Chapter award and earned a spot on the OL all-star roster.

Cameron Maybin (.358/.436/.614 overall) absolutely crushed right-handers all year, and Tom Murphy (.321/.375/.664) and Nick Senzel (.293/.346/.479) were lefty-killers. Shohei Ohtani (.282/.334/.514) also performed well, despite playing out of position all year. He committed nine errors in the outfield, good for an .899 fielding percentage.

Sam Dyson (3.74 ERA in 65 IP) was a true workhorse for us in the bullpen, and was called upon in many tough situations. More often than not, he rose to the challenge.

The Bad

It's hard to believe Andrew Benintendi (.245/.332/.388) finished strongly enough to be categorized as merely "bad." For most of the season, he was absolutely useless. He was so useless that we were forced to trade for Brett Gardner. Which reminds me...

Brett Gardner (.236/.314/.500) hit 15 homers in his short time (250 AB) with Salem, but was otherwise mostly useless. He did come through with some clutch hits, though, and was mostly an improvement over Benintendi against righties.

Taylor Rogers (4.46 ERA in 74+ IP) was mostly a disaster, to the point where he was being used only in mopup situations toward the end of the year. The problem was the longball. Thirteen of them, to be precise, in only 74 innings.

The Ugly

Alex Avila (.181/.324/.351) more than likely played himself off the postseason roster. He was supposed to be our full-time catcher against righties, but he was mostly useless (.200/.340/.387) against them all season.

Anibal Sanchez (11-6, 4.68 ERA in 180+ IP) may not belong in the "Ugly" category based on his final numbers, but the fact that he had so many ugly starts this year places him in this category. He simply can't be trusted in the playoffs, so he will be watching from the sidelines. (Something perhaps we should have done last year.)

Mark Melancon (6.15 ERA in 33+ IP) and -- especially -- Trevor May (6.15 ERA in 60 IP) belong in a category all to themselves. I have nothing nice to say about either one, so I'll just leave it at that.

Back in January, just before our season began, I posted a dozen hopes for the 2020 season. Let's see how we did:

Hope #1: We win back-to-back McGowan Division titles.

Mission accomplished. It took eleven years for us to win our ninth division title. My #1 hope heading into this season was that it wouldn't take eleven more to win our tenth. Of course, with every other team in our division deciding to rebuild in 2020, we basically won the McGowan Division by default. Still, it was nice to reach 100 wins for the ninth time in franchise history. 

Hope #2: Back-to-back BDBL championships.

TBD, obviously. Last year, we faced the same exact path to the World Series as this year: Division Series against Akron, with the #1-seeded Undertakers looming on the horizon. We lucked out, big-time, last year when Los Altos was upset in the OLDS by Joplin. Had that not happened, it is highly likely a 2019 banner would not be flying in Sam Adams Stadium today. We may not get so lucky this year.

Hope #3: A Cy Young award for one of our three aces.

We managed to win 103 games this year despite the fact that our aces didn't pitch like the aces we thought they would be. Of the three, Sonny Gray (20-7, 3.06 ERA in 191+ IP) has a good chance of winning that Cy Young award. That would make him the first Salem Cy Young winner since Erik Bedard won back-to-back honors in 2007 and 2008. Greg Maddux -- in our first-ever BDBL season -- was the only other Cowtipper to win the award.

Hope #4: Three 20-game winners.

This did not come close to happening. In fact, had it not been for a relief appearance by Sonny Gray in our penultimate series of the season, we would not have a single 20-game winner. Max Scherzer (15-9, 3.57 ERA in 189 IP) was practically a disappointment, given the $15.5 million we paid for him. Stephen Strasburg (16-8, 3.85 ERA in 229 IP) had his moments, but ultimately he was similarly as disappointing as any 16-game winner can be. In the end, our "three-headed ace" turned out to be one.

Hope #5: An MVP award for Rafael Devers.

Devers began the season on absolute FIRE. He hit .431/.488/.798 in Chapter One, and .361/.394/.722 in Chapter Three. Heading into the All-Star break, the OL MVP award seemed like a given. Then he got ICE cold. He hit just .272/.290/.437 in Chapter Four, and just .271/.328/.421 in Chapter Five, before bouncing back (somewhat) in Chapter Six: .278/.349/.591. He finished the season with a .318/.369/.583 batting line, 42 doubles, 40 homers, 127 runs scored, 118 RBI's, and 145.3 runs created. He ranks #5 in the OL in batting average, #5 in slugging, #5 in RBI's, and #3 in runs created. He will likely earn a lot of votes in the MVP balloting, but in the end, I don't think he will win the award.

Hope #6: Adley Rutschman gets the call.

Obviously, when I wrote this, I didn't realize there wouldn't be a minor league season, nor that the MLB season would consist of just 60 games. Not only didn't Rutschman get the call, but he didn't even make the expanded roster. He did make the projection disk, but his stats are so anemic, it wouldn't be worth carrying him on the roster. So...let's hope there is a 2021 MLB season.

Hope #7: Nick Madrigal makes the White Sox club out of Spring Training.

See above, although Madrigal's projection against lefties may be good enough to justify a bench spot.

Hope #8: Max Scherzer stays healthy.

As it turned out, it didn't matter. Scherzer's 2020 projection is good enough to justify the $15.5 million we spent on him. He was also healthy and a top-20 pitcher in MLB's shortened 2020 season, which bodes well for 2021.

Hope #9: Andrew Benintendi steps up.

Another wish list item for MLB 2020 that will never be resolved. Benny played in only 14 games and batted a whopping .103. So...yeah, that franchise contract we gave him could very well bite us in the ass for years to come.

Hope #10: Nick Senzel fixes whatever is broken.

Nope. Senzel is still broken. He hit .186/.247/.357 in 23 games, but at least his projection is somewhat useful.

Hope #11: Shohei Ohtani pitches 150 innings.

Yet another great disappointment from the MLB 2020 season -- a season filled with nothing but disappointment, it seems. Ohtani finally made it back on the hill...where he lasted all of 1 2/3 innings before he was forced to shut it down. AGAIN. We may never know how great a two-way player he could have been. At this point, it seems unlikely that he will ever pitch in the big leagues again. That is not only a shame for the Cowtippers, but for baseball and fans in general.

Hope #12: Spencer Howard pitches 100 innings in MLB.

Boy, did this hope not age well. He tossed only 24+ innings, but his 5.92 ERA suggests that it doesn't matter either way. His ugly projection means he won't be a factor at all for the Cowtippers in 2021 -- which would have been a shock to learn back in January.

Chapter Five Review

After two mediocre chapters, the team that we knew and loved back in Chapters One and Two finally returned and kicked some ass, resulting in a 21-7 chapter. Unless some team catches fire over the next few days, this will likely be the best Chapter Five record in the BDBL this chapter, and with the second-highest runs differential (with Los Altos being #1, of course.)

We swept Joplin, Ravenswood, and Darien in Chapter Five, won three out of four against Allentown, and split against Akron, Vegas, and North Carolina. One worrisome pattern this year is that we seem to beat up the bad teams and struggle against the better teams. Currently, Ravenswood (9-3) is the only opponent with a .500+ record that we have a winning record against this season. We are 4-4 against Bear Country, 3-9 against Los Altos, and 3-9 against Akron. That could be a major problem come November!

The Good

Our two newest relievers, Rowan Wick and Aaron Bummer, have been fantastic for us so far. Combined, the two pitched 26+ innings in Chapter Five, with just 15 hits allowed, and a 1.02 ERA.

I can't believe I'm about to type these words, but...Andrew Benintendi wasn't completely useless in Chapter Five! On the contrary, the guy was a machine! He hit .360/.439/.640 for the chapter, in 50 at-bats, and actually contributed to the team!

After struggling big-time the past two chapters, Max Scherzer (5-0, 1.16 ERA in 31 IP) could very well be the OL's Pitcher of the Chapter this time around. BDBL teams continue to load their lineups with left-handers against him, to the point where he has already faced more lefties in the BDBL than he did in MLB, with a full chapter remaining in this season.

Christian Walker has quietly put together a solid year. In Chapter Five, he was more than solid. He hit .344/.411/.688 for the chapter, with team-leading totals in home runs (8), RBI's (24), and runs created (29.2).

Our dream of having a Cy Young winner from Salem now rests solely with Sonny Gray (4-0, 3.86 ERA in 28 IP.) On the season, he is now 17-5 with a 3.04 ERA, which could be Cy-worthy in this difficult year for pitching. Another preseason dream was to see three Salem pitchers win 20 or more games, but that will not happen, as Scherzer has won just 13 games this season, and will likely start five times in Chapter Six.

Jose Ramirez (.290/.359/.570) was surprisingly good in Chapter Five, following four relatively boring chapters. Trea Turner (.295/.357/.533) has been consistently good. Shohei Ohtani (.340/.439/.574 in 47 AB) also hit well in a small sample. The same is true of Cameron Maybin (.333/.381/.769 in 39 AB).

The Bad

Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 4.22 ERA in 42+ IP) continues to add to his home run tally, surrendering five more last chapter to give him 23 for the year. He allowed 24 all of last MLB season, in fewer innings, and in a home ballpark that is one of the friendliest in baseball for home runs.

Rafael Devers (.271/.328/.421) was MVP-bound for the first four chapters or so, but he's really hurt his chances with back-to-back mediocre chapters.

Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 4.89 ERA in 42+ IP) continues his Jekyl-and-Hyde season. He started five games in Chapter Five. Three of those games, including eight shutout innings against Ravenswood, were fairly decent. Two were absolute disasters, including a game against Allentown in which Sanchez allowed TEN earned runs in only six innings.

Brett Gardner (.200/.294/.444) was supposed to have been an upgrade over Benintendi, but for one chapter, at least, the two seem to have switched bodies.

The Ugly

Through the first two chapters of the season, Trevor May was a respectable 4-1, with 5 saves, and a 3.54 ERA in 28 innings. The wheels completely fell off the bus in Chapter Three, and have yet to stop rolling around on the highway. He has posted an ERA of -- get this -- 10.45 since Chapter One. In a little more than 20 innings, he has allowed 27 hits, 26 runs (24 earned), 12 walks, and 9 -- count 'em, 9! -- home runs. In Chapter Five, May contributed a 5.68 ERA in a little over six innings.

Mark Melancon (6.75 ERA in 9+ IP) is supposed to just eat a few innings in middle relief, and he can't even seem to do that.

Our catching tandem of Bryan Holaday (.176/.263/.471) and Alex Avila (.111/.360/.278) were beyond awful last chapter. If only Adley Rutschman would hurry the hell up and arrive already.

Chapter Four Review

Through the first two chapters of this season, the Cowtippers co-owned the best record in the BDBL, with a winning percentage of .679. We outscored our opponents by 105 runs, which easily led the league. The next-highest margin was +68.

Through the next two chapters, the Cowtippers have owned a mediocre 27-21 (.563) record. This is only the seventh-best record in the BDBL over that period, are only one game better than the pathetic Joplin Miners' record during that time. We have been outscored by our opponents by 13 runs during this time.

What the hell happened? What changed?

The only changes we have made were additive. We added Brett Gardner (.265/.311/.456) this past chapter. He represents an upgrade over Andrew Benintendi (.200/.278/.330 vs. RH). We also added Rowan Wick (0.47 ERA in 19 IP), Aaron Bummer (3.45 in 15+), and Mark Melancon (4.32 in 8+). These have all been positive changes to our roster. So how the hell did we get WORSE?

Much of the blame lies with our pitching staff. We owned a 3.46 ERA in the first two chapters. Max Scherzer (6-4, 2.96 ERA), Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 3.46), and Jon Gray (5-2, 2.58) were outstanding. In the past two chapters, our team ERA has ballooned to 4.29. Scherzer (2-4, 5.88 ERA), Sanchez (1-2, 6.95), and Gray (3-3, 4.22) have been mostly useless.

The offense has also mysteriously flushed itself down the toilet over the past two chapters. In the first two chapters of the season, Salem led the entire BDBL in runs scored (346) and hit .279/.338/.501 as a team. In the past two chapters, Salem has scored just 210 runs (136 fewer than the first two chapters!), and hit just .241/.301/.438. We hit 101 home runs in the first two chapters and only 66 in the next two.

Folks...THIS IS THE SAME FUCKING TEAM!

Nearly our entire team has fallen into a slump, all at once. Here are the comparisons in OPS between the first two chapters of the season and the last two:

Tom Murphy: 1192 vs. 807Rafael Devers: 1086 vs. 916Cameron Maybin: 1014 vs. 909Ramon Laureano: 1000 vs. 725Nick Senzel: 950 vs. 664Shohei Ohtani: 893 vs. 678Alex Avila: 880 vs. 518Bryan Holaday: 868 vs. 381Carlos Puello: 808 vs. 670Christian Walker: 788 vs. 684Jose Ramirez: 781 vs. 858Trea Turner: 753 vs. 887Aledmys Diaz: 706 vs. 974Andrew Benintendi: 698 vs. 589

It's difficult to believe that Benintendi could possibly slump any worse than he did in the first two chapters, and yet here we are. ELEVEN out of the fourteen hitters on our roster hit worse over the past two chapters than the first two -- in some cases by more than 200 OPS points!

Some of this can be explained by our schedule. We played our division rivals eight games each in the first two chapters, and have not played against them since then. Those three rivals currently rank #8, #11, and #12 in the Ozzie League in ERA, and #7, #10, and #12 in runs scored. Some of this can be explained by sheer regression. Murphy, Laureano, and Senzel weren't likely to maintain their performance in Chapters One and Two, and Jon Gray probably wouldn't maintain his all-star pace.

So, what does this all mean? It means that the 2020 Salem Cowitppers were not as good as they appeared to be in the first two chapters. Hopefully, we're not as bad as we've played in the last two, but that remains to be seen.

Now, for the good, bad, and (mostly) ugly from Chapter Four.

The Good

There wasn't much "good" to be found in Chapter Four, unfortunately. Aledmys Diaz (.364/.417/.864 in 22 AB) and Cameron Maybin (.333/.520/.444 in 18) scorched the ball in a very small number of AB's.

Jose Ramirez (.310/.361/.667) finally pulled his head out of his ass. Trea Turner (.286/.337/.451) turned his game up a notch, and was finally successful (7-for-8) in the stolen base department.

Christian Walker (.273/.343/.489) didn't suck, although his Granite Glove cost us a game.

We are going to miss J.B. Wendelken (2-0, 0.00 ERA in 5+ IP, with 3 SV's) when his usage runs out. (Which will be very soon.)

Stephen Strasburg (3-1, 2.14 ERA in 33+ IP) and Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.45 in 25+) were the only two starters who weren't completely useless in Chapter Four.

The Bad

After three chapters of MVP-caliber performance, Rafael Devers did this in Chapter Four: .272/.290/.437, with just ONE home run, and a BB/K ratio of 3/18. Yuck.

What the hell happened to Tom Murphy's bat? He was brilliant in the first half of the season, but disappeared in Chapter Four: .244/.289/.390. Likewise, fellow lefty-masher Nick Senzel fell down the stairs: .226/.264/.419. No wonder we struggled so badly against left-handers!

The Ugly

Taylor Rogers (5.87 ERA in 7+ IP, with 11 hits allowed) was an absolute nightmare out of the bullpen, but nowhere near as bad as his MLB teammate, Trevor May (17.18 ERA in 7+ IP, with 16 hits, 7 BB, and 4 HR allowed. Maybe we should stop acquiring Minnesota Twins pitchers.

Jon Gray went 0-3, with a 7.46 ERA in 25+ IP. This is the same Jon Gray who pitched in the all-star game last month. Go figure.

Max Scherzer cost us $15.5 million in the auction. Evidently, it was a colossal waste of resources. He went 0-4 last chapter, with a -- get this -- 8.74 ERA in 22+ IP. He coughed up seven home runs in five games. Bravo, Max. Bravo.

And then there is Anibal Sanchez. He allowed 12 runs in a game not once, but TWICE, in Chapter Four. His pitching line for the chapter: 27+ IP, 45 H, 13 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 9.11 ERA. How bad was Sanchez in Chapter Four? Even JOSE BERRIOS had a better ERA than Sanchez. Yeah. That bad.

Shohei Fucking Ohtani: .196/.228/.294. Seriously, dude? No, really. Fucking seriously??

Benintendi is pure, unfiltered, dog crap: .188/.316/.354. There are several pitchers in the BDBL who can hit better than Benny.

Ramon Laureano: .212/.243/.379. That is simply inexplicable.

But this one takes the cake. Get a load of this heaping pile of bullshit from Alex Avila: .064/.170/.064. OH-SIX--FUCKING-FOUR!! Avila went 3-for-47 in Chapter Four. THREE FOR FORTY-SEVEN!!! This is the bullshit we have to put up with until Adley Rutschman arrives.

Odds & Ends

We just wrapped up the strangest Midseason Draft in our league's history. For the first time ever, no new information was available since the Winter Draft. Hardly any games were played, so there were no surprise or breakout performances to evaluate. Scouting wasn't allowed, so there were no new scouting reports to consider. Yet, the game must go on, and so we did. Below, I list the players we acquired during this draft. But first, we have a trade to announce.

***

Although we've had a good deal of success this season, there are a couple of major issues that we needed to address at some point this season; namely, our bullpen and Andrew Benintendi. Our bullpen was primarily (almost solely) responsible for several losses last chapter. The main reason for our success in 2019, I believe, was the strength of our bullpen. It has been my goal to recreate that strength in 2020, but it hasn't been easy.

Two chapters ago, I added Mark Melancon and Rowan Wick to our bullpen. Melancon is merely an innings-eater, but Wick is the guy we identified last winter to potentially fill the role that Ryan Brasier filled for us in 2019: the righty-killer. So far, so good. Wick was very good for us in his Salem debut.

Next, my goal was to find that lefty-killer that Oliver Perez so crucially provided for us in 2019. I targeted Aaron Bummer for that role last winter, and tried everything I could to bring him to Salem. His owner, Tony DeCastro, absolutely refused to deal him no matter which names I tossed his way. Finally, with the deadline only hours away, we got our guy.

Along with Bummer, we received veteran Brett Gardner, who will immediately replace Benintendi in the starting lineup against right-handers. Benny has been absolutely useless (.187/.254/.290) against righties this season. Gardner (.256/.325/.511) should be a vast improvement.

Of course, we had to give up way too much to get these two pieces of the puzzle. Kwang-Hyun Kim has some decent stats on the projection disk, and is only $100K in salary. Garrett Mitchell and Garrett Crochet are two college prospects with very high ceilings. We were very high on Tanner Burns coming into this season, so he could become a valuable commodity as well. Hopefully, it was all worth it.

***

Okay, now to our new draft picks:

#1 Sam Delaplane

It's funny, because I don't think I even listed Delaplane in my top ten list that I posted prior to the draft. Yet, as our pick approached, and the players I really wanted disappeared from the board one after another, Delaplane looked more and more attractive. He looks very much like a future shut-down closer, both in terms of his scouting reports and his numbers.

He offers a 70 slider (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and a 60 fastball. That combination has led to a minor league K/9 rate of over 15. His BB/9 rate of just over 3.0 is very reasonable. He also has some very favorable stats on the projection disk: 61+ IP, 51 H, 8 HR, 28 BB, 79 K, .715/.665 splits.

#2 Felnin Celesten

After our first pick, I decided I would switch up our entire draft strategy and focus on players with quality stats on the projection disk. Given the state of MLB at the time, it seemed like a reasonable gamble to assume that we will be using that disk for the 2021 BDBL season. With that in mind, I had Sam Selman's name written in indelible ink for our #2 pick. Then Tony Chamra swooped in and took him, five picks before ours.

Change of plans. I had 15-year-old Rodrick Arias penciled in as a possible late-draft flier. I normally wouldn't think of picking someone so young, but his scouting reports are pretty insane. Apparently, Jeff Paulson has read those same reports, as he selected Arias with his first pick, right behind us in Round One.

The only international player whose scouting reports are even better than Arias is Celesten. Just 14 years old, he has been called a "once in a generation" type of prospect, who is already graded a 50 on the 20-80 scale. With no one else on the board who provided nearly that level of excitement, I decided to roll the dice and prevent Paulson from having two of the best international prospects in the game.

#3 Hoby Milner

Returning to the projection disk, we selected Milner, who is projected to have 58+ IP and .637/.694 splits.

#4 Yadiel Hernandez

Hernandez would have never squeezed his way into the Washington Nationals outfield if the 2020 MLB season had been played, but his projected stats show plenty of playing time: 418 AB, .266/.355/.447 overall, with .736/.801 splits. If we end up playing with the projection disk, he could be our starting corner outfielder in 2021.

#5 Braylon Bishop

We decided to roll the dice on another teenage phenom. Bishop is a five-tool athlete, and one of the top prep players in the country. He is expected to be an early first-rounder in the 2021 MLB draft, but that is almost certain to change over the coming year.

#6 David Bednar

You guessed it. Another projection disk asset. Bednar's stats: 69 IP, .691/.629 splits.

#7 Taylor Guilbeau

Another yet another. Guilbeau may end up being our lefty specialist out of the bullpen next year. His projected stats: 56+ IP, .590/.698 splits.

#8 Jose Pirela

Pirela is projected to hit .274/.327/.478 against left-handers, and is rated at six different defensive positions.

#9 Christian Vaquero

Yet another very young teenage phenom from the international pool. The 2021 class is said to be among the best in years. Arias and Vaquero are currently ranked #1 and #2, but that ranking is so volatile, they could switch places by next July -- or fall out of the top ten altogether. It's all a crapshoot.

*** 

Now that it looks as though MLB's 2020 season is a complete bust, it's all but guaranteed that we will be playing the 2021 season using the projection disk. With that in mind, here is what our team would look like next season:

C: TBA
1B: Christian Walker: 493 AB, .256/.329/.475 overall, .832/.783 splits
2B: Nick Senzel: 414 AB, .261/.326/.435 overall, .774/.752 splits
3B: Rafael Devers: 624 AB, .292/.344/.530 overall, .843/.887 splits
SS: Trea Turner: 579 AB, .282/.341/.466 overall, .815/.803 splits
LF: Andrew Benintendi: 568 AB, .269/.345/.438 overall, .737/.800 splits
CF: Ramon Laureano: 454 AB, .258/.324/.469 overall, .806/.784 splits
RF: Jose Pirela/Yadier Hernandez: .805/.801 platoon
Bench: Shohei Ohtani: 380 AB, .282/.344/.518 overall, .798/.889 splits

SP: Max Scherzer: 174 IP, 132 H, 39 BB, 236 K, 3.00 ERA
SP: Stephen Strasburg: 184+ IP, 152 H, 50 BB, 221 K, 3.22 ERA
SP: Sonny Gray: 158 IP, 132 H, 59 BB, 171 K, 3.82 ERA
SP: Jon Gray: 155+ IP, 149 H, 53 BB, 160 K, 4.28 ERA

RP: Trevor May: 52+ IP, 44 H, 24 BB, 65 K, 3.93 ERA
RP: Ryne Harper: 55+ IP, 55 H, 16 BB, 52 K, 4.20 ERA
RP: J.B. Wendelken: 71 IP, 67 H, 28 BB, 72 K, 4.18 ERA
RP: Rowan Wick: 60+ IP, 53 H, 32 BB, 66 K, 4.03 ERA
RP: Aaron Bummer: 70 IP, 64 H, 29 BB, 64 K, 3.86 ERA
RP: Hoby Milner: 58+ IP, 52 H, 18 BB, 65 K, 3.53 ERA
RP: Sam Delaplane: 61+ IP, 51 H, 28 BB, 79 K, 3.82 ERA
RP: Shohei Ohtani: 69+ IP, 61 H, 29 BB, 83 K, 3.89 ERA

It's a real shame that Strasburg's Cowtippers career will end with projected stats. He has had an outstanding career with us, but it would have been nice if he had ended on a high note by winning that elusive Cy Young award. It's also a shame to see Sonny Gray's 2019 MLB performance discounted so badly. I doubt we would have seen that much regression in his numbers.

Likewise, it would have been nice to see if Adley Rutschman and/or Nick Madrigal could have made an impact this year. Then again, it would have been nice to see some real baseball of any kind being played in 2020. It is what it is. We have no choice but to make the best of this unthinkable situation.

Midseason Draft

The Midseason draft is upon us. Of course, this year, the draft is much, much weirder than it has been in years past because exactly zero baseball has been played since the Ides of March. So, we're left with nothing but scouting reports. Still, there is some value to be had here.

Here are my top ten picks as we head into the draft. Of course, the order of this list will change a dozen times by the time we actually pick.

1. Heston Kyerstad, OF, Arkansas
2. Max Meyer, P, Minnesota
3. Zac Veen, OF, Orange, FL
4. Felnin Celesten, SS, DR
5. Rodrick Arias, SS, DR
6. Yoelqui Cespedes, OF, Cuba
7. Reid Detmers, P, Louisville
8. Bryce Jarvis, P, Duke
9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
10. Wilman Diaz, SS, Venezuela

Chapter Three Review

After splitting the first four series we played in Chapter Three, we won seven of our last eight games, giving us a record of 15-9 for the chapter. Overall, we own a .663 winning percentage, which is second only to the mighty Los Altos Undertakers.

We have a few deals in the works, and hope to make an announcement by the end of this chapter. We are also preparing for the mid-season farm draft, so that will be covered in the next post as well.

The Good

The Brothers Gray were outstanding in Chapter Three. Jon went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings, and Sonny went 3-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 32. Our newest member, Rowan Wick, was excellent as well, sporting a 1.04 ERA in 8+ innings. The seldom-used Ken Ryan (1.50 ERA in 6 IP) was also surprisingly good.

Rafael Devers (.361/.394/.722) continues to do nothing but rake. At this point, he looks like he could possibly become the first Cowtipper to win the MVP award since John Olerud way back in 1999.

Trea Turner (.333/.400/.611) was only 2-for-4 in stealing attempts in Chapter Three, but hit four home runs and eight doubles.

Tom Murphy (.333/.360/.667) and Cameron Maybin (.333/.362/.511) have been consistently good from the beginning of the season.

The Bad

Shohei Ohtani whacked five home runs and added a pair of triples in Chapter Three, but hit just .212/.254/.545 overall.

Jose Ramirez (.205/.271/.397) has struggled most of this season. Our MVP from a year ago has been all-but-useless at the plate, and has already committed eight errors while playing out of position at second base.

Max Scherzer (3.97 ERA in 34 IP), Stephen Strasburg (3.52 in 38+), and Anibal Sanchez (3.31 in 16+) weren't bad, per se, in Chapter Three, but they weren't exactly the Cy Young-caliber pitchers they should be. Scherzer pitched a real stinker (7 ER in 5 IP) against Great Lakes last chapter. Strasburg got lit the fuck up (5+ IP, 13 H, 7 R, 5 ER) against Kansas City. Sanchez was just...meh. I expect better from these guys.

The Ugly

Christian Walker (.160/.266/.259) pretty much took the chapter off. He's our only real first baseman, so we have to plug him into the lineup every day, but man, has he been useless. At least his Ex glove takes some of the sting away.

Bryan Holaday (.130/.167/.174) had a horrendous chapter, to the point where we may just cut him loose.

I wish we could cut Andrew Benintendi (.174/.240/.290) loose as well, but he's under contract for many years to come. The face of our Jumbotron a year ago has turned out to be an automatic out at the bottom of our lineup.

New guy Mark Melancon (6.35 ERA in 5+ IP) had a rough debut as a Cowtipper. Usually-reliable Sam Dyson posted a 6.75 ERA in 8 IP in Chapter Three, and blew two saves.

But the worst of the worst in Chapter Three was Trevor May: 7 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, and 4 (count 'em, FOUR!) home runs allowed. Where the hell did that come from? May was pretty much lights-out in the first two chapters. He completely choked against Saskatoon, Las Vegas, and Kansas City last chapter. We need him to turn it around in a big way.

Chapter Two Review

We got off to a rocky start, including a sweep by the Akron Ryche, but righted the ship in the end and finished the chapter with a respectable 18-10 record. That brings our record for the season to 38-18 (.679), which is tied with the Los Altos Undertakers for the best record in the league. Our runs differential of +105 leads the league by a wide margin, which means we will achieve my childhood dream of ranking #1 in Jim Doyle's Power Ranking!

We managed to pull off one trade ahead of the deadline, adding two bullpen arms in exchange for top prospect Jackson Kowar. Rowan Wick and Mark Melancon will take some of the workload off the backs of our overworked bullpen staff.

The Good

Jon Gray (3-0, 2.02 ERA) stepped it up in Chapter Two. In 35+ innings, he allowed just 28 hits (one home run) and 11 walks, with 38 strikeouts. If he could ever pitch a full season at some point in his career, he would be incredibly valuable.

Max Scherzer (3-2, 2.29 ERA) enjoyed a productive chapter as well. His numbers are even more impressive when you take into account a disastrous start against South Loop, in which he allowed 13 hits and 6 runs (5 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings.

Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.25 ERA) also had a productive chapter that included not one, but TWO, multi-inning relief appearances in extra innings. He ended up throwing seven innings in those two games, allowed just one hit, and ended up with the win in both games.

Taylor Rogers (2.00 ERA in 18 IP) was an absolute workhorse in Chapter Two. Jimmy Cordero (2.13 in 12+) also worked a little harder than I planned for him to work.

Rafael Devers "slumped" all the way to .299/.359/538 for the chapter, and yet still led the team in runs created.

Alex Avila (.435/.519/.870) broke out of his slump in a big, big, way. His catching platoonmate, Tom Murphy (.360/.418/.800), also had a big chapter. Even our backup to the backup catcher, Bryan Holaday (.300/.370/.525) had a nice chapter.

Shohei Ohtani (.348/.353/.742, 6 HR) broke out after a slow start to the 2020 season. Cameron Maybin (.403/.456/.565) and Nick Senzel (.347/.353/.551) also raked. Ramon Laureano (.283/.316/.630) led the team with 8 home runs. Even Andrew Benintendi, of all people, had a productive chapter (.275/.378/.420).

The Bad

After a blistering Chapter One, Trea Turner's performance (.238/.278/.337) hit a wall in Chapter Two.

Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 4.11 ERA) was pretty mediocre. Trevor May (3.77 ERA in 14+ IP) was a disappointment out of the bullpen.

Jose Ramirez (.264/.298/.425) and Christian Walker (.241/.310/.464) weren't exactly awe-inspiring.

The Ugly

Stephen F'ing Strasburg. Wow, did he suck, early in the chapter. He was pummeled by Bear Country (6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER), spanked by Akron (5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER), and absolutely humiliated by Allentown (5.2 IP, 12 H, 10 ER). His numbers for the chapter: 42+ IP, 51 H, 5 HR, 14 BB, 43 K. Yuck.

We have to use our bench players quite a lot, thanks to usage limits. Unfortunately, they all pretty much sucked monkey balls the entire chapter. That includes Aledmys Diaz (.184/.310/.449), Carlos Puello (.143/.308/.429), and Tim Lopes (.138/.138/.138).

Chapter One Review

In Chapter One, we went 20-8 overall, swept two series, won three others, lost only one, and came within one out of throwing our first-ever no-hitter. There is plenty of good news there to unpack, but there are also some flashing red warning signs. Our bullpen has been shaky, and our most reliable closer, J.B. Wendelken, has already spent over one-third of his season's usage. Our catching situation will need to be addressed at some point. We could also use another outfielder.

The problem is that this current trade market is completely absurd. The asking price for a part-time catcher or bullpen arm is one of our top prospects. Teams aren't even interested in discussing anyone else. We recently placed Garrett Mitchell -- a possible top-five overall pick in the coming MLB draft, with 80 speed and 70 power -- on the Selling forum. We received one offer. One. That, alone, is indicative of where this trade market is at the moment.

So, while we patiently wait for opportunity to knock, we take a look back at our first chapter.

The Good

Rafael Devers (.431/.488/.798 with 10 HR and 43.6 RC) was not only our team's MVP, but will likely be the Ozzie League's Hitter of the Chapter. He was on fire from Opening Day to the final series of the chapter.

Trea Turner (.340/.384/.505, with 11 doubles and 9 SB) was outstanding as our leadoff hitter. Tom Murphy (.409/.458/.705) got the job done against lefties, as did Nick Senzel (.333/.413/.590). Ramon Laureano (.317/.363/.695) and Cameron Maybin (.286/.397/.612) were excellent as well.

As mentioned above, Wendelken (0.73 ERA in 12+ IP, with 3 SV) was our most reliable closer. Taylor Rogers (1.88 in 14+) was excellent out of the bullpen as well.

Our starting rotation was not bad, but it was nowhere near as good as we expected. Stephen Strasburg went a perfect 4-0, with a 2.98 ERA. Anibal Sanchez (2-1, 2.70) turned in a strong performance. Jon Gray (2-2, 3.19) and Sonny Gray (3-1, 3.51) were great at times and mediocre at others. Sonny came within one out of pitching a no-hitter against the Iron Spider Pigs -- and then nearly blew the game! Our $15.5 million investment, Max Scherzer (3-2 3.58), pitched two decent games and four not-so-decent.

The Bad

Shohei Ohtani has been as disastrous in right field as we expected. What we didn't expect was that he'd be mostly disastrous at the plate as well. He hit just .236/.306/.345 with one home run in Chapter One. He needs to do better.

We removed Andrew Benintendi from our Jumbotron after last year's Jumbotron Jinx apparently infected his play. Unfortunately, he still can't hit: .234/.295/.312 for the chapter.

The Ugly

Alex Avila (.162/.295/.270) has been pretty much useless behind the plate. Not only that, but we over-used him. We need to plug that hole at some point.

Ryne Harper (3 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR) was...not good. Neither was Felix Pena (6+, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 2 HR). Kyle Ryan also allowed 4 runs in his 1+ inning of work. Between Ryan and Avila, it's a real mystery as to how they used up so much of our VORP cap this season.

This "Ugly" section wouldn't be complete without mentioning our ugly series loss to the lowly Darien Blue Wave. The series began with Wendelken, of all people, serving up a walk-off home run. We then lost the final two games to Drew Pomeranz and Spencer Turnbull. We managed to score one run on six hits in their fourteen innings combined. Which is just beyond stupid.

Opening Day, 2020

Opening Day is always so exciting because it is so filled with hope and optimism. I am very optimistic about this coming season, and I have a great deal of hope in a number of areas. Here is what I hope will happen over the course of the next ten months:

Hope #1: We win back-to-back McGowan Division titles.

We used to take division titles for granted in Salem. Not anymore. Last year was our first division title since 2008. That was also the year we last won back-to-back titles. All three teams in our division are concentrating on the future. If we don't win the division, then something went terribly wrong!

Hope #2: Back-to-back BDBL championships.

Obviously, this is somewhat of a pipe dream, given how long it took for us to win the first one -- in six attempts. But, I think every team hopes to win the BDBL championship at the beginning of every season. If not, then why bother playing at all?

Hope #3: A Cy Young award for one of our three aces.

We haven't seen a Salem pitcher win a Cy Young award since 2008. It's hard to believe Erik Bedard won a single Cy Young award, but he actually won back-to-back awards for us in 2007 and 2008. The only other Cowtipper to win that award was the first-ever Cowtipper, Greg Maddux, back in our first-ever season, 1999. It would be nice to see Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, or (especially) Stephen Strasburg win that award in 2020.

Hope #4: Three 20-game winners.

All three of those names mentioned above are fully-capable of winning 20 games this year. We haven't had a 20-game winner in Salem since 2015 (Scherzer.) We have never had two 20-game winners on the same team. In fact, the list of 20-game winners in Salem is very short: Greg Maddux (1999), Mike Mussina (2002), Brandon Webb (2004), Curt Schilling (2005), Jeremy Bonderman (2007), Erik Bedard (2008), Felix Hernandez (2010), and Max Scherzer (2014 and 2015).

Hope #5: An MVP award for Rafael Devers.

After all the times we resisted the urge to trade him, it sure would be sweet to see Devers reward us for our patience with an MVP award. You have to go all the way back to 2002 (Sammy Sosa) to find an MVP winner from the Salem organization. John Olerud (1999) was the only other Salem MVP.

Hope #6: Adley Rutschman gets the call.

I know he will likely waste away in Double- and Triple-A this year, but it would be so nice if Rutschman got enough MLB playing time to make a difference for us next season. It's very unlikely to happen, but that's why they call it "hope."

Hope #7: Nick Madrigal makes the White Sox club out of Spring Training.

This is another longshot, but we could really use a second baseman next year, and Madrigal would be a perfect fit.

Hope #8: Max Scherzer stays healthy.

We made a huge, $15.5 million, investment in an aging pitcher coming off of an injury late last season. It was a huge risk, but big payoffs often require huge risks. Our fingers and toes are crossed that Scherzer enjoys a healthy MLB season.

Hope #9: Andrew Benintendi steps up.

We've been patiently waiting (along with Red Sox Nation) for Benny to become the all-star-caliber player he is supposed to be. A sub-.800 OPS, with home runs in the teens, and sub-par defense is not what we expected when we made him a franchise player a year ago. He really needs to step up his game in 2020.

Hope #10: Nick Senzel fixes whatever is broken.

Senzel has said that he changed his swing last year, at the advice of the Reds coaching staff, and it messed him up the entire season. Here's to hoping that he goes back to his old swing and becomes an asset for us in 2021.

Hope #11: Shohei Ohtani pitches 150 innings.

It was great fun moving Ohtani around from the starting rotation to the outfield to the bullpen last year, but it would be so much more fun if he'd just pitch enough innings that we could use him as a full-time (or mostly full-time) starter. 150 innings seems like a reasonable benchmark, although I'm sure the Angels will baby him the entire season.

Hope #12: Spencer Howard pitches 100 innings in MLB.

Our 2021 starting rotation will include (if they stay healthy and productive) Scherzer, Strasburg, and Sonny Gray. Strasburg and Sonny will be pitching their final year under contract in 2021, however. John Gray is signed through 2023. We need young blood in our starting rotation, and Howard seems as though he would fit perfectly. We were bombarded with trade offers for Howard all winter, but we held firm. Howard is our guy. It would be nice if he began contributing sooner rather than later.

Draft Day Diary: Day Nine

Well, it's a good thing we decided not to go with Plan B to "spread out" our cash and fill several holes in our roster. That plan included signing Jake Odorizzi at a salary of $7 million and Yasmani Grandal for $8 million. Odorizzi ended up getting $8.5 million, and last night Grandal got $9.5 million! Who knows what the max bids were for those two!

This is why we do everything possible to avoid the auction every year. It's completely unpredictable. And all it takes is one delusional owner to drive a player's salary through the roof. In retrospect, although the Scherzer signing is very risky and puts us in a tight financial position this year, and for the next two years, it was probably the best move we could have made in this auction. If we had gone with Plan B, we would have ended up with Steven Matz pitching every fifth game.

Which brings me to my next bit of news.

The Scherzer signing permanently placed Matz on our reserve roster this year. We had four pitchers (Matz, Daniel Norris, Mike Montgomery, and Trevor Cahill) doing nothing except taking up valuable space on our 35-man roster. Something had to be done. To that end, we placed a Selling post on the league forum, and found a taker for Matz and Norris. We got two draft picks in return, which is a huge relief, as we still have several holes to fill.

Given how crazy this auction has unfolded, it could not have turned out better for us. I feel as though we will be in an excellent position heading into this season.