Chapter Three In Review

As I did last chapter, I will forgo our Chapter Review tradition of breaking this report into "good, bad, and ugly" sections, as there was very little good or bad to report in Chapter Three. At the end of Chapter Two, I asked on this page which version of the 2021 Cowtippers was the "real" version: Chapter One or Chapter Two?

Keep in mind that there is very little in common between those two versions. They are practically polar opposites -- to the point where it is difficult to understand how the same team, with the same players, using the same player cards, can perform so drastically differently from one chapter to the next. As we progress further into this ridiculous season, it appears that the Chapter Two version of the Cowtippers is the one that we should expect to see from this point forward.

On a similar note, it appears that the Rafael Devers that we saw in Chapter One, who got off to a blazing-hot start before cooling down a bit and finishing with a respectable .273/.316/.500 batting line, is a thing of the past. We must come to accept the fact that the version of Rafael Devers that plays in the BDBL is not the one we see in real life. Our version hit all of .189/.265/.356 in Chapter Three, which appears to be his "new normal."

For the season, Devers is hitting just .217/.272/.398. These numbers pale in comparison to the numbers on the projection disk: .292/.344/.530. How on earth those numbers somehow translate into this shitty performance, 80 games into the season, is truly a statistical marvel.

Prior to the start of this season, we ran six sims using the projection disk, with Devers playing in Salem's home ballpark in all 162 games each season. His median OPS for those six sims was .823 -- 52 points below his projection OPS (which is fairly in line with the league average, given that our ballpark favors pitchers.) The lowest OPS he posted in those six sims was .792. That lowest OPS is a whopping 122 points higher than his current OPS in the BDBL. How many seasons would we need to sim before we would see an OPS as low as .670? 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? We're likely witnessing a performance that is probably three standard deviations below the mean! That is as statistically-improbable as it gets, folks. We're talking lottery-winning odds.

So, now the question is: what do we do with a third baseman who is posting a .670 OPS, is basically useless overall, is a huge liability in the field, and completely useless against left-handers (.525 OPS)? We have dropped him down to #5 in the lineup against righties, and #6 against lefties, and he is still killing us. So, do we sit Rafael Fucking Devers? Who on earth would we play instead? Aledmys Diaz? Keep in mind: Devers is the guy that we thought would have a good chance to become the first Salem MVP since Sammy Sosa!

Of course, Devers is hardly alone. Christian Walker (-133), Yadiel Hernandez (-113), Kurt Suzuki (-106), Robinson Chirinos (-247), Jose Pirela (-124), and Nick Madrigal (-141) are all posting OPS's more than 100 points below their projected numbers. That's SEVEN players, folks. We could almost field an entire LINEUP of hitters that are under-performing their projections by 100+ points!

So...what do we do about this? Do we sacrifice our entire farm system to upgrade our lineup? Which first baseman could we get who hits better than Christian Walker's .804 projected OPS? Or Jose Pirela's .805 OPS against lefties? Or Yadiel Hernandez's .801 OPS against righties? If the projected numbers have zero correlation to their actual performance, then why bother upgrading?

We have a starting lineup comprised of five hitters with an .800+ OPS against lefties (with two others above .790), and five players with an .800+ OPS against righties...and we currently own a team OPS of .709, with a lefty/righty split of .684/.721.

Folks...there is ZERO correlation between the stats on the projection disk and our team's actual offensive performance. ZERO.

Moving on. Defensively, the Salem Cowtippers rank DEAD LAST in the BDBL in fielding percentage, with a league-high 70 errors. No other team has more than 54 errors as I type, so we lead the league by a VERY comfortable margin. The main culprits here are Devers and Shohei Ohtani. Devers has posted a career MLB fielding percentage of .931, but he's sitting at .907 in the BDBL, with 17 errors so far. Ohtani is forced to play out of position as a DH, so his 11 errors (.959%) at first base is at least understandable. Alex Colome has only had FOUR total chances in the field so far, and has committed THREE errors. Max Scherzer and Sonny Gray have committed four errors combined, and both carry a fielding percentage below .900. In total, nine of our team's seventy errors (13%) have been committed by our pitchers -- which has to be the league leader.

Last, but certainly not least, let's talk about the bullpen. 80 games into our 160-game season, it has become crystal clear that we cannot trust ANYONE on our roster to hold a three-, four-, or even five-run lead. Here are our runs allowed per inning, and where we rank among the BDBL:

1st inning: 45 (19)

2nd inning: 21 (1)

3rd inning: 29 (8)

4th inning: 38 (19)

5th inning: 27 (4)

6th inning: 27 (2)

7th inning: 33 (8)

8th inning: 51 (21)

9th inning: 35 (23)

With the weird exceptions of the first and fourth innings (poor performance against the top of the lineup!), we rank among the best in the league in preventing runs in the first six innings of the game. After that, we fall completely apart. We rank near dead-last in the eighth and ninth innings. It doesn't seem to matter who we use in those situations, either, as we have tried everything we can think of to avoid this -- including using our usual inning one-through-six starters out of the bullpen!

That's right. Our bullpen has been so bloody awful that we began using our four aces -- Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, and Jon Gray -- in relief. These are four of the best pitchers in baseball. Surely, they can handle pitching an inning or two without allowing more than three runs....right? Wrong.

Max Scherzer (6 times), Stephen Strasburg (10), Sonny Gray (14), and Jon Gray (6) have been used out of the bullpen a whopping 36 times this year (only 8 fewer times than our relievers!), and have gone 3-9 in those games. Our two Cy Young candidates and two top-50 starters have lost NINE games in relief this season. NINE. That is roughly the same number of losses as all of the relievers on our team, combined.

Is there a parallel universe somewhere where this makes a lick of sense?

We finished Chapter Three with a 13-11 record. We barely outscored our opponents by nine runs. Over the past two chapters, we have gone 25-27 with a +13 runs differential. We've lost ten more games than the pathetic, flag-waving, waffling, Joplin "Cutting Our Losses" Miners over the past two chapters. Is there a light at the end of this dark tunnel, or is it time to reset expectations for the second half? At this point, it appears that the Salem Cowtippers you see now are what we are stuck with from this point forward.

* * * 

Let me close out this delightful chapter summary by showcasing some of the completely asinine fucking ways we lost games in Chapter Three:

• In a game against the Niagara Locks, we managed to rally to tie the score in the sixth inning, and our bullpen miraculously managed to hold the Locks at bay for four innings. Our offense couldn't make heads nor tails out of Matt Strahm (mediocre 3.92 ERA on the disk) or Carlos Estevez (4.18), who pitched four innings of one-hit shutout relief combined. Then we brought in Strasburg to start the bottom of the 11th inning and he served up a walk-off homer to the first and only batter (Xander Bogaerts) that he faced.
• We took a commanding 5-0 lead against the Carolina Saints, at home, in the first of our four-game set. We went to the bullpen early, having started the shaky Framber Valdez, and watched as they slowly allowed Carolina to creep back into the game while our offense took the rest of the day off. In the ninth, we held a slim 5-3 lead. We handed the ball to Sonny Gray...who proceeded to allow FIVE runs.
• We then lost Game Two of that series when Jon Gray somehow couldn't contain the awesome offensive firepower of Franklin Barreto (who is hitting .204/.290/.407 for Carolina this season.) His three-run blast -- made possible by yet another error by Rafael Devers -- put the game out of reach. The crushing blow in the first game, a three-run triple off of Sonny Gray, also came off the bat of Barreto.
• We lost a game to the lowly South Loop Furies when Jon Gray was tasked with holding a tied score in the bottom of the ninth. Instead, he allowed a leadoff double (where the runner advanced to third on yet another error by Ramon Laureano.) The next batter popped out to right field...where Yadiel Hernandez dropped the ball, and the winning run of the game happily scampered across the plate. Back-to-back errors led to a walk-off.
• We lost a completely idiotic game to the Allentown Ridgebacks in which not one, but TWO of our Cy Young candidate aces blew easy saves in the late innings. First, we brought Scherzer into the game in the eighth inning to protect a three-run lead. He proceeded to allow a two-run double and an RBI single to tie the game. Then, in the twelfth inning, Strasburg took the hill for his third inning of relief and allowed a three-run blast to Matt Olson with two outs. We managed to lose that game by only one run after Trea Turner hit a two-run homer with no outs in the bottom of the inning. But then someone named Grant Dayton struck out Aledmys Diaz, Kolten Wong, and Ramon Laureano in order. Whiff, whiff, whiff. Fucking Bugs Bunny.
• We ended up losing three of four to Allentown in that series after Corey Kluber carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning of Game Two, and someone named Andrew Kittredge carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of Game Three. Rafael Devers failed to get a single hit in that entire series.

* * * 

So...where does that leave us? Frankly, I see no reason to expend any effort whatsoever on improving this team, given this team's apparent lack of effort to win regardless of who I put on the field. We have pursued a few trades, but the asking price is always much, much higher than we're willing to pay. Of course, the irony is that 2021 is the year when star players have been traded for pennies on the dollar. It's a buyer's market for everyone except us, it seems.

We will likely ride this team to the end, for better or -- likely -- worse. What a ridiculous season it has been in every conceivable way.

About That Bumgarner Trade...

When you join a league, any type of league, the underlying principle that makes the league worthwhile is the unstated assumption that each member of the league is actually trying to win. Once in a while, you will come across a league where some sort of collaboration or alliance between teams is beneficial to winning, but even then, the teams in that alliance benefit equally. Otherwise, what's the point?

If you are in a league where the ultimate prize is money, then the motivation to win is obvious. When there is no money involved, then there may be ulterior motives to winning that would explain a team's decision to decrease their chances of winning in order to increase another's. In the end, when there is no money on the line, then the league must rely on the honor system or the entire league would collapse.

All of which is to say...what the fuck was up with that Madison Bumgarner trade?

Imagine that you actually are trying to win, and you enter into a trade negotiation with another team in order to increase your odds of winning -- whether now or in the future. You offer your best trading chit, and your trading partner offers Players A, B, and C in return. You value Players A, B, and C so greatly that you feel that is a fair trade. At no point does it occur to you to make a counter-offer for Players X, Y, and Z instead. You prefer A, B, and C.

Now, imagine if your trading partner then says, "Oopsie! I forgot that I already traded A, B, and C! My bad! How about Players X, Y, and Z instead?"

We've already established the fact that you didn't want Players X, Y, and Z. Otherwise, you would have asked for them instead. If you had considered A, B, and C to be a fair market value for your player, then X, Y, and Z would -- by logical extension -- be LESS than fair.

Given that, why on earth would you accept a less-fair package of players in exchange for your player?

I have given some thought to that question, and these are the only answers I can come up with:

1) You are in a rush, and don't care much about getting fair value, so you simply take whatever is offered, because it's better than nothing.

2) You really don't care about your team, so in the end, it doesn't matter who you get in exchange for your best trading chit.

3) You were saved from making a foolish trade initially after realizing that it was Players X, Y, and Z that you really wanted all along.

There is only one other possible explanation: you simply wanted to screw someone else by trading his main competitor a good player, and in the end, it didn't matter who you got in return, as long as it screwed that guy.

Joplin has turned the 16th-best farm system in the BDBL into a division-leading team thanks to the generosity of two owners in the league who decided that the 50th, 75th, 92nd, and unranked prospects in baseball were worthy of their impact players.

Of course, that isn't the only reason Joplin is winning after "cutting their losses" a chapter ago. They're also winning thanks to some fortuitous performances from some incredibly-unlikely players. And they are in first-place only because our Cowtippers have collapsed so spectacularly. Joplin has been both incredibly lucky AND have created their own luck through trades. Sometimes it helps to be in an alliance, even when the league structure doesn't call for one.

Chapter Two in Review

Normally in this space, I would segment our chapter review into sections: good, bad, and ugly. This chapter, there was no good, or even bad, to be found. It was all ugly.

It's difficult to believe that the Cowtippers we saw in Chapter Two were the same Cowtippers from Chapter One. Nothing changed, except for the fact that we added a catcher who can actually hit. You'd think that would be a good thing. Instead, we went an abysmal 12-16 in Chapter Two and fell into second place in the McGowan Division.

Lucky for us, Jim Doyle ensured that we don't have to worry about losing this division. Had he not made his suicidal trade at the beginning of last chapter, I would need to seriously consider trading away some of the key pieces of our franchise's future in order to win this division. As it now stands, I don't need to do anything. We will win this division by default. Thank god for small blessings.

Ugliness #1: Our Offense

For the life of me, I cannot comprehend what the hell is wrong with our offense. We hit just .233/.293/.417 for the chapter and scored just 124 runs -- an average of just 4.4 runs per game. That sub-.300 OBP is especially mind-boggling. Our OBP for the season is now just .302. Out of all the hitters who have received regular playing time on our roster, only two -- Aledmys Diaz and Ramon Laureano -- have an OBP that is higher than the one on the disk.

Shohei Ohtani (.300), Rafael Devers (.275), Andrew Benintendi (.309), and Christian Walker (.256) all have an OBP that is over 30 points lower than the one on the disk. That's half our lineup! Devers, in particular, is posting stats that are nowhere near his projections:

BDBL: .228/.275/.416, 570/745 splits 

Proj: .292/.344/.530, 843/887 splits

This is the guy who is supposed to be our MVP. He is supposed to be, by far, the best hitter on our team. What are we supposed to do with him now? Move him down in the batting order? Bench him against lefties? Which is the real Rafael Devers? The one on the disk or this useless piece of shit?

Ugliness #2: Max Scherzer

The Chapter One Co-Pitcher of the Chapter, who was basically unhittable in Chapter One (0.81 ERA in 44+ IP, with only 29 hits allowed) crashed into a flaming fireball of turd in Chapter Two. Naturally, we expected some regression after that dazzling first chapter. But this?

1-4, 5.50 ERA, 36 IP, 37 H, 8 HR, 7 BB, 54 K

EIGHT home runs and four losses in one chapter. (Four of those homers came in his final start against Los Altos.) How is it even possible for the same pitcher, with the same player card, using the same exact software, to deliver two such completely polar-opposite performances one chapter apart?

Ugliness #3: Our Shitty Bullpen

Our bullpen has been so useless this entire season that we have begun using our best starting pitchers as relievers. Even THAT backfired in Chapter Two.

We lost a game to the Las Vegas Flamingos in which we handed a 6-5 lead to Sonny Gray in the ninth inning. He struck out the first two batters he faced. Then, one out away from victory, he proceeded to give up three straight hits to three complete bums: Kevin Cron, Jason Kipnis, and someone named T.Ward. Ward's double brought home both Cron and Kipnis for the walk-off win.

We lost a game to Lake Norman when Shohei Ohtani and Sam Delaplane combined to cough up four runs in the ninth inning, blowing a 2-0 game wide open.

We lost a game to Los Altos when we handed a 6-5 lead over to Aaron Bummer, who proceeded to live up to his name by allowing a pair of singles and a three-run homer to pinch hitter Mac Williamson in the eighth inning.

We lost a game to Joplin in the twelfth inning when Scherzer, pitching his fourth inning of relief, allowed a solo home run to Carlos Santana (who, thankfully, we won't have to see anymore!) We could have won that game if only the Salem offense had been able to score a single run off of Matt Barnes or Rubby de la Rosa -- two right-handed specialists facing a lefty-heavy lineup.

We lost yet another game to Joplin when "righty-specialist" David Bednar served up a two-run homer to righty Josh Donaldson (another one we won't have to worry about anymore), and then Sam Delaplane choked up another solo homer to Santana in the ninth. We ended up losing that game by one run, wasting a brilliant effort by Jon Gray.

We somehow managed to score only one run against someone named Adrian Houser in a loss to Darien. We had a chance to win that game when we tied the score in the top of the ninth, but once again, our bullpen failed. Once again, it was Sonny Gray, pitching in relief, who stood on the mound while the opposing team celebrated another walk-off win.

We couldn't even beat the bad teams in Chapter Two. We managed a split against the last-place North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs thanks to yet another failure by yet another "ace" starting pitcher pitching in relief. In the second game of that series, Stephen Strasburg served up a solo homer to Ian Happ in the sixth inning, which became the deciding run in that one-run loss.

We played nine games in Chapter Two that were decided by one run, and went 2-7 in those games. Absolutely pathetic.

+++

Thankfully, help is on the way, both internally and externally. Internally, we will be adding Kolten Wong to our lineup and Sean Doolittle to our bullpen. Doolittle has posted a 2.89 ERA in 18+ innings for the Ravenswood Infidels. We're not sure where he will fit in as a third left-hander in our bullpen, but that's a good problem to have. Wong (.258/.346/.472) will be replacing the mostly-useless Nick Madrigal (.250/.305/.278) at second base. It would be nice if their 40-point differential in OBP would actually translate to the game play. We will, however, miss Jeimer Candelario's bat (.267/.346/.422) more than we anticipated when we made that trade at the start of the chapter.

Externally, of course, we look forward to competing against a severely-hobbled Joplin Miners roster after the trades of Josh Donaldson, Carlos Santana, and Clayton Kershaw. Miners GM Jim Doyle hilariously scrambled to fill those holes once he realized the blunder he had made, but that isn't likely to make much of a difference. Khris Davis (.280/.330/.611, with 18 home runs) was having a phenomenal year for the Infidels prior to his trade. He should fill in nicely for Santana (.286/.382/.509), but that still leaves a gaping hole in the lineup.

Likewise, there is now a gaping hole in the starting rotation following the departure of Kershaw (6-3, 3.07 ERA in 85 IP.) The Infidels came to the rescue there as well, filling that void with James Paxton (3-4, 4.85 ERA in 55+ IP). Paxton is no Kershaw, however, and his weaknesses are easily-exploitable.

Regardless of those changes, we should once again expect some regression, but in the opposite direction. If our team is not nearly as good as we were in Chapter One, but not nearly as bad as we were in Chapter Two, then the "true" talent level of our ballclub is somewhere just north of .500. In this newly-altered division race, that should be enough.

Chapter Two Acquisitions + Bonus Update

We added several players to our roster prior to the Chapter Two deadline that we hope will add some value to our team this year and next.

First, we made a deal with our division rivals, the Darien Blue Wave, to acquire a much-needed catcher who can actually hit. As noted in my Chapter One Review, our catching tandem of Christian Vazquez and Robinson Chirinos somehow managed to hit .158/.200/.211 and .125/.227/.214, respectively. They barely outperformed the pitchers on our staff, who hit .175/.217/.193!

In our deal with Darien, we added Kurt Suzuki, who is among the best offensive catchers in the league, albeit in very short usage. He has yet to hit in the BDBL this season (all the better for us), but hit .268/.326/.453 overall on the disk, with 12 homers in only 276 AB's. Along with Suzuki, we also added Zac Lowther (since released) and Ka'ai Tom, a Rule 5 guy who is battling for a fourth-outfielder job in Oakland.

In exchange, we traded three pitchers that we believe will be valuable bullpen pieces in our 2022 season: Antoine Kelly, Matt Foster, and Jonathan Hernandez.

We also added three players as free agents:

Ryan Tepera: He developed a cutter in 2020 that led to the third-best contact rate in all of baseball last season, behind only NL ROY Devin Williams and Edwin Diaz. He doesn't always know where the pitch is going once it leaves his hand, but a weapon like that can be extremely valuable if used properly.

LaMonte Wade: The San Francisco Giants seem to have a knack for finding "Quad-A" guys -- older prospects who never got a chance at the MLB level, but excel once given that chance. Guys like Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, and Alex Dickerson are their most recent success stories. Wade, battling for an Opening Day center field position as I type, could be next in line.

Jeffrey Springs: Like the Giants above, the Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a knack for finding Quad-A guys as well, only on the pitching side. Springs, like Tepera, developed a nasty pitch in 2020. His changeup was one of the least hard-hit pitches in baseball last year (second only to Williams'). If he can harness that pitch as well as Williams did, we'll have a steal on our hands.

BONUS:

Before I could even sit down to write this piece, we pulled the trigger on our first Chapter Three trade, adding Kolten Wong and Sean Doolittle from the Ravenswood Infidels at the expense of Jeimer Candelario, Jose De Leon, and Tommy La Stella. Wong gives us another bat against righties that should be a major upgrade over Nick Madrigal. Doolittle shuts down left-handed batting, and will be very useful for us in that role.

Neither of the two trades we made are earth-shattering deals that will lead to another BDBL championship. Making such a deal would require sacrifices that we simply aren't willing to make. We had a very good chance to add Chris Sale this past chapter. We were also given a tempting offer to add Jacob deGrom to our rotation. Either trade would have given us the greatest starting rotation this league has ever seen, but neither trade would have guaranteed another trophy -- which no trade ever could.

We have committed to keeping our core of top prospects (Spencer Howard, Austin Martin, Asa Lacy, and Adley Rutschman) intact. We would also prefer to keep Madrigal and Connor Priellip on the roster as well. That leaves very little in terms of trade bait. We are very happy to have made the upgrades we did without having to sacrifice any of the players just named.

As I type, the league is still reeling from the Joplin Miners' latest trade, in which Jim Doyle went absolutely insane and traded his entire team away in exchange for future considerations. This trade effectively ends the McGowan Division race -- before we have even played a single Chapter Two game! We expected that race to be tightly-contested this season. Hell, the Miners led the league's polling in our division, making us the underdogs. That race is now over.

Chapter One in Review

Our first chapter is now in the books. We ended up with a respectable record of 18-10, which puts us five games ahead of the Joplin Miners in the McGowan Division. The story of our chapter is pitching. If our entire pitching staff were a single pitcher, we'd be looking at a surefire Cy Young winner: 258+ IP, 195 H, 21 HR, 86 BB, 308 K, 2.44 ERA. By the time the other teams catch up in terms of games played, that 2.44 ERA will likely obliterate the next-best team ERA in the BDBL. Unless something strange happens, we will likely end up with the OL's co-Pitchers of the Chapter.

Our offense was a lot less impressive. We hit just .247/.310/.400 as a team. Our OBP and slugging are both below the OL average, as of this writing. Our runs per game of 4.3 is also below the league average of 4.5.

The Good

We could not have asked for better starting pitching in Chapter One. It is difficult to choose which pitcher had the better chapter: Stephen Strasburg (4-0, 0.88 ERA in 41 IP) or Max Scherzer (4-2, 0.81 ERA in 44+ IP). Jon Gray (1-1, 1.72 in 31+) and Sonny Gray (3-0, 1.95 in 37, with 3 SV) were beyond excellent as well. And Framber Valdez (1-0, 1.59 in 22+) served as the best #5 starter in the BDBL, bar none.

In the bullpen, Aaron Bummer (1.38 ERA in 13 IP, 3 SV) and Alex Colome (2.08 ERA in 8+, 3 SV) got the job done.

The part-time backups, Aledmys Diaz (.345/.418/.466 in 58 AB) and Nick Senzel (.292/.320/.521 in 48) enjoyed the most impressive offensive chapter.

Andrew Benintendi (.288/.354/.479), Trea Turner (.280/.344/.415), Rafael Devers (.273/.316/.500), and Yadiel Hernandez (.262/.380/.477) also deserve an attaboy.

The Bad

Christian Walker (.213/.253/.307) has been just about useless, and is most likely the worst-hitting first baseman in the league.

Shohei Ohtani (.212/.281/.442) has been mostly useless, and is such a liability in the field that his bat hasn't come close to compensating for his lack of glove.

Jose Pirela (.209/.292/.326) began the season on fire, but cooled to zero.

The Ugly

Spencer Howard's BDBL debut: 2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 HR. 'Nuff said.

Hoby Milner (9.45 ERA in 6+ IP), Sam Tuivagina (7.20 in 5), and David Bednar (6.57 in 12+) were godawful embarrassments. Bednar was particularly disappointing, given that he was supposed to be our closer this year. Incredibly enough, those three combined to blow only one save and lost only two games.

Our catching tandem of Christian Vazquez (.158/.200/.211) and Robinson Chirinos (.125/.227/.214) has been so godawful that it's like having two pitchers in our lineup at all times.

2021 Salem Farm Report

Several years ago I made the bold executive decision to stop trading away all of our best farm players for immediate gain. I selected a core group of players (Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Trea Turner, and Shohei Ohtani) that I stubbornly refused to trade under any circumstances and no matter how tempting the trade offers would be. I then freely traded the "B Group" of prospects from those farm teams in exchange for immediate gain.

Unfortunately for the Cowtippers franchise, it appears that the "B Group" (Wander F'ing Franco, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alvarez, among others) was better than that "A Group."

Since then, I have added a few more players to the "untouchables" list: Adley Rutschman, Asa Lacy, Austin Martin, and Spencer Howard. Hopefully, those four will be at least as productive as the three that we decided were disposable.

In years past, I have expended way too much effort to provide a comprehensive summary of each of our team's top ten prospects on this page. Thanks to an entire year lost to COVID, there is nothing new to report beyond what was written here a year ago. If you want the details, simply scroll through the posts until you come to last year's entry. For now, this will have to suffice:

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Adley Rutschman, c
Born: February 6, 1998 (age 22). B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 208. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2018.

The Scoop: Rutschman has been called a "generational talent" by more than one pundit over the years. He is currently ranked as the #2 prospect in baseball (behind former 'Tipper prospect Franco) by Baseball America and MLB.com. He hits for both average and power, has an excellent glove and arm behind the plate, and hits from both sides of the plate. When he is finally given the chance to play in MLB, he will instantly become one of our best hitters in the heart of our lineup.

2. Austin Martin, 3b/ss/cf

Born: March 23, 1999 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 170. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #1), 2019.

The Scoop: The #5 overall pick in last year's MLB draft, Martin's bat is already Major League-ready. The only question is where he lands defensively. He played most of his college career at third base, but also spent some time at second base, shortstop, and center field. He will hit for a high average, with at least average power, regardless of where he ends up. If anyone is ever allowed to play baseball again, he will likely start the 2021 season at the High-A level, but I would be surprised if he lasts more than a month before his first promotion.

3. Asa Lacy, p
Born: June 2, 1999 (age 22). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 214. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #2), 2019.

The Scoop: Lacy was the fourth overall pick in last year's MLB draft. He is a hard-throwing left-hander with 55-60 grades across the board. Given his stuff, his college track record, and the amount of money the Kansas City Royals spent on him, I would be shocked if he doesn't move quickly up the organizational ladder. A 2021 cup of coffee would not be surprising.

4. Nick Madrigal, 2b
Born: March 5, 1997 (age 23.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-7. Wt: 165. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2017.

The Scoop: He will never hit for power, but Madrigal brings so many other assets to the game that it's impossible to imagine a scenario where he isn't a major contributor for the next several years. He strikes out so rarely that few other players in baseball can match his K-rate. He plays exceptional defense. He hits for a high average. He gets on base. He steals bases. Unlike most of the other players on this list, he actually played baseball in 2020, and hit .340 with a .376 OBP in a 109-PA cup of coffee in the big leagues. In other words: he is already contributing. He should be fun to watch in 2021!

5. Spencer Howard, p
Born: July 28, 1996 (age 24). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: With Stephen Strasburg and Sonny Gray leaving us for free agency at the end of this season, we desperately need fresh new arms to take their place. That makes Howard the most important player on this list from the Salem Cowtippers' perspective. If he does not succeed as well as we hope, our team could be in big trouble. He stumbled a bit in his MLB debut (24+ IP, 5.92 ERA), but also ran into some bad luck and nagging injuries. We need him to be healthy and productive in 2021. If he is, he could be our ace.

6. Connor Prielipp, p
Born: January 10, 2001 (age 20). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Acquired: 1st round, 2021 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: With most pundits in agreement that the MLB Class of 2021 is relatively weak compared to other classes, and 2022 looks to be a very strong class, we decided to go after Class of '22 prospect Prielipp with our #1 pick of this winter's draft. He won Freshman of the Year honors last year after a very abbreviated season in which he didn't allow a single run through four starts (21 innings), with six walks and 35 strikeouts. He is currently ranked among the top ten prospects in the '22 draft class by most pundits, and would be a high first-round pick if the draft were held today. Of course, a lot can (and does) happen in the 18+ months prior to a draft. For now, we're hoping that we caught lightning in a bottle.

7. J.T. Ginn, p
Born: May 20, 1999 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 192. Acquired: mid-season farm draft (pick #3), 2019.

The Scoop: Ginn lost all but three innings of his 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. Assuming he makes a full recovery, we're looking at a pitcher who dominated as a college freshman, who throws a 99-mph sinker and vicious slider. If he can develop the change-up that he was working on prior to his injury, he could be a frontline starter. If he can't, he can be a dominant reliever. Either way, we look forward to watching his development over the coming year.

8. Antoine Kelly, p
Born: December 5,1999 (age 21). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 205. Acquired: 3rd round, 2021 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: Kelly posted some crazy Nintendo numbers (19.1 K/9!) in junior college, and was drafted in the second round by Milwaukee in 2019. He continued to rack up strikeouts (not nearly to the same extent!) in his first professional season, and was consistently named as the most exciting and electric prospect at the alternative training site this past summer. He could be poised for a huge breakout in 2021.

9. Carmen Mlodzinski, p
Born: February 19,1999 (age 21). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 231. Acquired: 5th round, 2020 winter farm draft.

The Scoop: Mlodzinski has flown under the radar, thanks to a broken foot that limited him to just three starts in 2019, combined with the loss of nearly the entire 2020 season due to the pandemic. He landed on our radar thanks to his 2019 summer performance in the Cape League, where he ranked among the very top prospects. He could either break out in a big way in 2021 or he could become one of the first players we release. There is no in-between.

10. Jason Vosler, 1b/3b
Born: September 6, 1993 (age 27). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 205. Acquired: Trade, winter, 2021.

The Scoop: We are always late to the game when it comes to those "Quad-A" players who come out of nowhere to become major league impact players. By the time we notice guys like Luke Voit, Max Muncy, Mike Yastrzemski, and others like them, it's too late. We're hoping to catch this lightning in a bottle before it strikes. Vosler fits the same description as those others: 27 years old, career minor leaguer, terrific stats in Triple-A, big-time raw power, but no role in the major leagues. That last part changed when Vosler was signed by the San Francisco Giants. The opportunity for him to shine is now here. Let's see what he does with it.

2021 Draft Day Wrap-Up

The most boring and insignificant Draft Day in Salem franchise history has officially ended. We had only $4.6 million to spend on eleven players, so we were forced to watch most of the proceedings from the sidelines. Never have I been more grateful to have no money! The auction was as wild and crazy as predicted. Several bags of popcorn were consumed while we watched that feeding frenzy play out in real time.

The only player we thought we had a remote shot of signing was Omar Narvaez, but as it turned out we were $1.5 short of winning that bidding war. So, we waited and waited and waited, while hundreds of players came off the board. Finally, we made our first pick of the winter in Round 15 of the draft. Below are the eleven players we signed, along with our glowing scouting reports that prove our brilliance.

Round 16: Alex Colome

Heading into Round 11, we had a choice. We could have taken one $2 million player and four $500K players or we could have taken two $1 million players and four $500K's. We rolled the dice. And we lost. Big-time.

The guy we had our eye on for that 11th round pick, Tejay Antone, came off the board. Just because that didn't provide enough salt to rub into our wounds, Antone went to the despised Los Altos Undertakers -- one pick after ours. We could have had him, but we played it too conservatively and paid the price.

We narrowed down our choice in Round 16 to Colome, Ryan Jeffers, and Mike Mayers. Ultimately, we decided on Colome because he was the safest choice of the three to give us value in 2022, plus he provides the bonus of having value this season as well. Relievers with lopsided splits (685/712 for Colome) are always a useful weapon to have. We also gambled that Jeffers and Mayers would still be there in Round 17 when we would make our second $1 million pick, but of course, Jeffers went three picks before us in that round.

Round 17: Robinson Chirinos

Mayers was still available with this pick, but we felt that he was so under the radar that he would fall to the $500K rounds. To this point in the draft, we still didn't have a backup catcher, and Chirinos was the only one available with acceptable stats against right-handed pitching. Our thought process here was that we'd get that one pick out of the way that we "need" in 2021, and then spend the rest of the draft focusing on 2022 and beyond.

Of course, two rounds later, Mayers went to the Highland Freedom.

Round 21: Sam Tuivailala

I know what you're thinking. "You JUST wrote that you'd spend the rest of the draft focusing on 2022...and yet Tuivalalalala has zero future value! What gives?" Well...in the heat of the moment, a lot of pre-planned strategy gets crumpled up and tossed in the waste basket. That's exactly what happened when we reached the 21st round.

Tuivailala was the best pitcher available, albeit he "pitched" only 41+ innings on the projection disk. We are roughly 90 innings short of usage in our starting rotation, and Tui will get us halfway there. His 615 OPS against righties will be very useful against certain righty-heavy teams.

Okay, NOW we can focus on the future, I swear!

Round 22: Tommy La Stella

Say what? Tommy La Stella is "the future??" Well...yes! The guy is very underrated! He has played basically one full season (549 PA's) from 2019-2020 combined, and hit .289/.356/.471 over that period, with 21 homers, and a 47/40 BB/K ratio! He's usually rated at multiple infield positions, to boot! Don't underestimate the value of someone like that!

Why the projection disk was so down on him, I'll never figure out, but he should easily be worth his $500K salary a year from now. Trust me.

Round 23: Codi Heuer

Heuer is part of a very young and talented Chicago White Sox bullpen that is arguably the best in baseball. He's a side-armed tosser who throws in the high-90's with a whiff rate that ranks among the best in the game. Our goal, basically, for the remainder of this draft was to find at least one bullpen diamond-in-the-rough for 2022. Heuer is as good a bet as any.

Round 24: Matt Foster

An MLB teammate of Heuer's, Foster came out of nowhere last year to have a phenomenal MLB debut at age 25. He made big gains in velocity a year ago, and now looks to be a big part of that vaunted Chicago bullpen.

Round 26: Jonathan Hernandez

Hernandez has been a prospect forever, it seems, but that's exactly the type of player that tends to scoot under the radar and seemingly come out of nowhere to become the Next Great Relief Weapon. He throws gas, has a killer slider, and will likely become a multi-inning reliever in the mold of Chad Green.

Round 27: Matt Wisler

Speaking of sliders, Wisler fell in love with his 70-grade slider so much that he ditched all of his other pitches and threw that slider almost exclusively! The end result was the best season to date (25 IP, 1.07 ERA) for the former top prospect. He was just signed by the Giants last month, and they have a habit of turning nothing into something when it comes to pitching.

Round 28: Jose De Leon

It seems as though we draft this guy every year, hoping that all of the hype finally pays dividends. De Leon was once considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Then he got injured and disappeared for a while. Now, I'm reading reports from training camp that his fastball has jumped several miles per hour and his secondary pitches are becoming real weapons. When asked to name the one guy who stood out at camp above all the others, the Reds' new pitching coach didn't hesitate to name De Leon. I'm buying the hype. Again.

Round 29: Jake McGee

This pick earned the coveted Sylvester Family Seal of Approval. McGee was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2020. He struck out a whopping 42% of the batters he faced! BUT...it was only a 20-inning sample, he turns 35 years old this year, he still has no MLB home at the moment, and he's been susceptible to the gopher ball throughout his career, so he works with a razor-thin margin of error. Still...42%!

Round 30: Daniel Norris

We've danced with Norris before, only to be severely disappointed. At one point, we thought he would become the Next Jon Lester. Or maybe the Next Erik Bedard. Instead, he was just a stumbling, bumbling, mess. His velocity fell into the high-80's. His secondary pitches became flat and lifeless. But then, the Tigers moved him to the bullpen last year and Norris found a second life. His fastball returned. He enjoyed a taste of success. Now, he has fallen in love with Detroit's new pitching coach, who is heavily into analytics. Who knows? Maybe there's some magic there. It's worth a 30th-round gamble!

***

In addition to the picks we made ourselves, we also traded for two draft picks:

Round 19: Jason Vosler

Funny story. As we approached our fourth and final pick of the farm draft, Akron GM DJ Shepard began inquiring as to whether anyone would be willing to trade their pick for a 26th-rounder. At that point, we were planning to take Vosler with our farm pick, but felt that he could probably be had in the free agent draft pretty easily. So, we traded the pick.

Fast-forward to Round 18. DJ let us know that he had enough money to make a $1 million pick with his final pick, so we could have that pick instead of his 26th-rounder. What a steal! This trade couldn't have worked out any better! Mike Mayers -- who, remember, we nearly took in Round 17, was still available! We basically traded our last farm pick for Mayers! What an incredibly fortunate turn of events!

One pick -- ONE MEASLY PICK! -- before DJ's pick in Round 19, and Mayers was still available! Oh, boy!

Of course, you already know what happened. Team Sylvester snatched up the ONE guy we had our eye on with that pick. We couldn't find anyone else worthy of drafting, so we just went with Vosler.

So, in the end, instead of paying $100K to draft Vosler in the farm draft, we paid $1 million for him in the draft. Genius!

We are strongly hoping that Vosler's career takes the same trajectory as Luke Voit's and Max Muncy's. If not, we REALLY screwed up here.

Round 27: Gregory Soto

We tried everything we could think of to get Trevor May's contract off our hands prior to Cutdown Day, to no avail. He's a fine pitcher. At least, his stats indicate that he should be a fine pitcher. But we had our fill of Trevor May in 2020, and we want no part of him going forward. We're still wiping off the stench from his performance with us a year ago.

We found a taker in Ravenswood, who probably ended up with a bargain because of our bias. We almost asked for their 26th round pick in return, but didn't want to get greedy, so we asked for their 27th, which turned into Soto. He is yet another young reliever that began his MLB career like his head was on fire. In his first ten innings, he was looking at a 3% walk rate and 31% (!) whiff rate. With his 98-mph fastball and plus-slider from the left-hand side, he was looking like the second coming of Andrew Miller.

Of course, he cooled down a little after that and finished with a whiff rate of "just" 30%, while his walk rate ballooned to 13%. Still, there's a lot to like here. Well worth a 27th-round flier - and hopefully worth whatever May ends up contributing over the next two seasons.