Chapter Two Review

I was told that my last chapter review was a little too negative. Actually, I believe the exact critique I heard was that I whined like a little bitch. So, I will try to be a little more positive this time around.

The Cowtippers wrapped up Chapter Two with a horrendous embarrassing lousy somewhat disappointing record of 17-11. Thanks to New Milford's ridiculous well-earned 20-8 record last chapter, we now find ourselves five games out of the division lead, but with a comfortable six-game lead over the Flagstaff Outlaws in the oh-so-coveted wild card race.

THE GOOD:

We managed to split a series against the legendary Los Altos Undertakers -- on the road. We walloped them by a score of 12-3 in the first game, and then barely eked out a series tie in the final game. Since this is the "good" section, I won't mention how we lost the other two games.

Our offense performed extraordinarily well in Chapter Two. We hit .290/.350/.444 as a team, and scored 154 runs (ranking third in the OL as of this writing.) After a rough start, Elvis Andrus really came into his own in Chapter Two, hitting .343/.405/.507. Carlos Ruiz (.471/.571/.882), Jayson Werth (.438/.526/.813), Jose Ramirez (.362/.402/.491), Odubel Herrera (.333/.398/.369), Trea Turner (.316/.328/.491), and our Chapter Two MVP Miguel Cabrera (.322/.410/.552) all did a tremendous job for us.

On the pitching side, newly-acquired Liam Hendriks (1.04 ERA in 8+ IP) provided some much-needed bullpen depth. Stephen Strasburg (2-0, 1.44 ERA in 31+) had a terrific chapter. Matt Shoemaker (3-1, 3.00) and Stephen Matz (2-0, 3.32) weren't bad, either.

THE BAD:

Our pitching staff was just atrocious in Chapter Two. We posted a 4.21 team ERA, and walked 109 batters in 246 innings. As I mentioned last chapter, the walks are killing this team, and there isn't any explanation as to why it is happening.

Jon Gray (3-2, 4.68 ERA in Chapter Two) should be a MUCH better pitcher than what we've seen so far. His BDBL ERA is now higher than it was in Colorado last year. That is just plain ridiculous. He allowed 18 walks and four home runs in 32+ innings last chapter. That's just stupid.

Junior Guerra (1-1, 4.88 ERA) was equally disappointing last chapter. We traded a budding young perennial all-star to acquire what we thought would be half a season of borderline Cy Young-caliber pitching. Instead, Guerra is just 2-3 on the season, with a 4.46 ERA -- nearly two runs higher than his MLB ERA.

Although we technically traded Amed Rosario for Jose Altuve, we wouldn't have made that trade if we hadn't been able to trade Neil Walker for Mike Montgomery. Monty was supposed to be a valuable long reliever for us this year, and possibly a member of our starting rotation in 2018. Instead, he won't be starting for us next year, and he's been less than useful (4.14 ERA in 37 IP) for us this season. He was solely responsible for at least two of our losses last chapter.

When we acquired Kyle Seager in a winter deal last winter, we really thought that we had strengthened our lineup against right-handed pitching. Instead, Seager hit just .245/.336/.383 with one home run in Chapter Two, and is hitting a modest .268/.354/.475 on the season.

THE UGLY:

We went 4-4 against the Granite State Lightning and Myrtle Beach Hitmen last chapter. Those two teams currently own winning percentages of .231 and .313, respectively. Both are projected to lose 100 games this season. Yet, the best we could do against both teams was split.

We lost a game to Granite State because our offense couldn't get anything going against the bullpen committee of Matt Cain, Jeanmar Gomez, Blake Wood, and the legendary Vance Worley. We lost another when the Luis Perdomo out-pitched Jon Gray. In that game, Jay Bruce hit a three-run homer off of Gray that eventually decided the game. Had Gray not hit the pitcher, Perdomo, with a pitch two batters earlier, that wouldn't have happened. It's the little things that get you.

In the entire BDBL, only three teams have averaged fewer runs per game than Myrtle Beach. They are hitting just .238/.295/.365 as a team. And yet somehow, some way, our Salem Cowtippers pitching staff could not contain the offensive juggernaut that is the Hitmen. We managed to allow eight runs to the Hitmen in the second game of our series, and then topped that by allowing NINE runs in the third game. We very nearly lost that series if not for a come-from-behind victory in the final game. Myrtle Beach has scored eight or more runs in only six games this season -- one-third of which were against our pitching staff.

When we acquired Clay Buchholz, it was for the sole purpose of filling innings. Every calculation we performed suggested that Buchholz would pitch much better in our ballpark than his MLB numbers implied, so we rolled the dice. As a reward for our faith in him, Buchholz managed to not only injured himself in MLB, making him useless for next year, but he also went 1-2 wth a 7.13 ERA in his three starts as a Cowtipper. Thanks, Clay.

Offensively, no one in the BDBL sucked more than Travis d'Arnaud (.175/.214/.200) in Chapter Two. And Jorge Soler (.179/.273/.359) has been so useless against left-handers that we are now looking to fill that glaring hole in our lineup.

***

Well...given the number of "uglies" above, I guess I failed in my mission not to be too negative. But once this team gives me a reason for optimism, I'll take advantage of it!

Chapter One Review

Normally you would think a 20-win chapter would be a cause to celebrate, but in Salem, it's just another second-place finish. When Clayton Kershaw went down with a near-season-ending injury in June, when David Peralta finally performed like the fourth outfielder he is, when Mookie Betts forgot how to hit left-handers, when Troy Tulowitzki discovered that he isn't in Coors anymore, and when Michael Saunders performed a fantastic second half belly-flop, we figured that maybe -- maybe -- we wouldn't have to worry about the Blazers in 2017. But no. Heaven fucking forbid they ever stumble even a little bit.

Of the seven series we played in Chapter One, we split two, swept one, and took three out of four in the other four. We posted a respectable 3.17 ERA for the chapter, but our pitching staff allowed a completely baffling and irritating number of walks. We averaged 3.6 walks per nine, which would lead the league if it weren't for the Las Vegas Flamingos. Even more baffling and irritating was the performance of our offense. We hit .263/.330/.440, which is just about league average across the board. We were also thrown out on the basepaths twelve times in twenty-seven attempts -- a success rate of just 56%. In our final series of the chapter, Jose Altuve was picked off of first base -- twice -- by a pitcher with a Pr pickoff rating! There were two things at which this Cowtippers team was supposed to have excelled this season: getting on base and stealing bases. We didn't do either in Chapter One.

It seemed as though every game was a nail-biter. Out of our twenty wins, seven were by a margin of only one run, and eight were won by two runs. In fact, we only played four games the entire chapter that were decided by more than three runs.

THE GOOD

Our bullpen was outstanding in Chapter One. Notably, Rubby de la Rosa (1.47 ERA in 18+ IP), Mike Montgomery (2.45 in 18+), and Raisel Iglesias (2.25 in 24). The problem is that we overused those three arms to such an extent that we'll have to add another arm or two down the road. On the starting side, our two southpaws, Stephen Matz (3-1, 2.81 ERA in 25+ IP) and Daniel Norris (3-0, 1.02 in 17+), were phenomenal.

On the offensive side of the ball, Trea Turner (.396/.431/.604), Miguel Cabrera (.308/.392/.606), Jose Altuve (.333/.386/.496), Gary Sanchez (.273/.429/.697), and Kyle Seager (.292/.373/.573) all exceeded their lofty expectations. As with our bullpen, we'll have to make some adjustments to our usage going forward, as Turner and Sanchez are extremely limited. The same goes for Andrew Benintendi (.424/.472/.606), who has already racked up 35 of his allotted 129 plate appearances.

THE BAD

Odubel Herrera hit .303/.374/.467 against right-handers in MLB last year. So far this season, he's hitting just .195/.283/.232 against righties -- which is a problem because he's supposed to be our leadoff hitter against righties. If this is what we should expect from him for the remainder of the season it's going to be a very long season.

The same applies to Jose Ramirez. After hitting .312/.363/.462 in MLB last year, we were expecting a borderline MVP performance from him this year. Instead, he's hitting just .247/.311/.382 with no home runs.

We expected very big things from Jon Gray this year. He posted very impressive numbers in MLB last year, and by moving from the league's most hitter-friendly ballpark to one of the league's best pitcher's parks, we were hoping to see a huge improvement in those numbers. Instead, his BDBL ERA (4.45) is only slightly lower than his 4.61 MLB ERA. What irritates me most of all is that he has walked 19 batters in only 32+ innings. His BB/9 rate of 5.3 isn't in the same universe as his MLB rate of 3.2. He's also allowed home runs at a higher rate (1.7 vs. 1.0). Seriously, how do you go from Coors Field to Anaheim and allow MORE home runs??

Stephen Strasburg was supposed to be our staff ace. Instead, he managed to win only one game in Chapter One, and posted a mediocre 4.10 ERA. He's already allowed six home runs, which is more than a third of the total number of homers he allowed all last year in MLB. Of course, this is nothing new with him.

Junior Guerra is another pitcher sporting an absolutely ridiculous walk total at this point. He allowed 3.2 BB/9 in MLB, and has allowed 5.9 BB/9 so far this season. Nearly every pitcher on the Salem pitching staff is allowing walks at a far higher rate than their MLB numbers. Raisel Iglesias (3.0 vs. 3.8), de la Rosa (3.6 vs. 4.4), and David Phelps (3.9 vs. 5.9) are also walking batters at a ridiculous pace. And bear in mind that I don't pitch around all that often!

THE UGLY

Speaking of Phelps, we were counting on him to be a workhorse in the bullpen, and we used him a lot in Chapter One. In 18+ innings, he allowed 10 runs -- all earned. His 4.91 ERA isn't anywhere near his MLB ERA of 2.28.

As a group, Salem pitchers are batting .054/.070/.054 this season. They have three hits this year. THREE. And one walk. ONE. They have zero extra base hits, and have knocked in zero runs. They have performed only slightly worse than our catching tandem of Travis d'Arnaud (.093/.111/.116) and Carlos Ruiz (.143/.294/.214.) When Sanchez isn't in the lineup -- which is more often than not -- we really need one of our two backup catchers to step up and -- oh, I don't know -- hit at least their weight! Combined, those two catchers have six hits -- SIX! -- in 59 at-bats.

Prior to the final series of the chapter, Elvis Andrus had posted numbers that weren't much better than our two backup catchers. He went on a tear in that series and raised his season average to .250/.319/.350. Prior to that series, he was hitting just .178/.250/.178! With a backup catcher and Andrus at the bottom of the lineup, it's like having three pitchers bat in a row!

Given all of the bad and ugly we witnessed in Chapter One, it's a miracle this team won twenty games! Next chapter, we face the daunting task of playing the Undertakers, Blazers, and Infidels all in the same chapter. Should be fun.

Opening Day

Opening Day. Are there any two more exciting words in the English language? "Free beer", perhaps. For Matt Clemm, "Taco Tuesday" may elicit equal excitement. For me, Opening Day means hope. Maybe this is the year. Maybe this time, all of my hard work will pay off. Maybe all that time I spent reading and pouring over numbers and spreadsheets will have actually paid dividends. Maybe the Baseball Gods will finally stop pissing all over me, and my team will perform exactly as awesomely as I expect. Maybe this year, Lucy won't yank that football away, and I'll kick it straight through the goalposts.

Then, before the first game has ended, all of that hope completely drains from my system and is instantly replaced by that familiar sensation of simmering rage in the pit of my belly, and I ask myself, "Why, why, why do I waste my time playing this stupid fucking game?"

Tony Chamra hates me. That is the only explanation I have as to why he forces me to open each season in the pit stain of New Milford. Don't get me wrong, I love the town itself. I was born and raised there. It is a quaint New England village that seems to have been hermetically-sealed in a time capsule. You walk along its lush town green, lined along each side by little mom-and-pop-run shops and buildings that have stood since before the American Revolution, with a World War II tank at one end of the green and a statue of Abe Lincoln at the other, with a green-painted bandstand at its center, and it feels as if you've been magically transported into a Norman Rockwell painting.

But if you stroll a little further away from this heartwarming scenery, toward the darkened waters of the Housatonic River, you will soon spot its looming presence on the horizon. Then, that smell will invade your nostrils and there is no mistaking where you are. Nestle Field, home of the despicable Blazers.

It is an eyesore amidst the lush New England landscape. Its architect must have been the same person who designed the Death Star. Gray, bleak, and uninviting. As you approach the monstrosity further, you begin to see and hear them. Pretentious New Milford fans, strolling toward the ballpark in their Izod-clad ensembles, with their white linen pants and boat shoes. Between discussions about their yacht club and the most recent editorial by Paul Krugman, you will hear these modern-day Yuppies brag about how bored they are with their favorite ballclub. "Winning a hundred games every year has become so mundane," one will say. "Why, it's hardly worth the effort to watch them anymore, knowing the outcome is predestined. If it weren't for the fabulous brie and wine selection at the Stadium Club, I'd probably forgo the entire charade."

Oddly enough, mixed in with these self-impressed snobs are legions of farmers smelling of manure and working-class joes covered with grease and oil. For the most part, these fans fill the right field bleachers, where they continue the proud Blazers tradition of performing a "roll call" where they give the middle finger to every member of the opposing team.

Our spring training schedule was a bit limited this year, and we played only six games. Oddly enough, all six were against the Blazers. When we won all six of those games, I knew right away that we were in trouble for this Opening Day Series. Surely, the Baseball Gods were fucking with me earlier than usual. My suspicions seemed unwarranted at first, as we took a 3-0 lead through the first six innings.

Our ace, Stephen Strasburg, has always struggled against the Blazers (with one notable postseason exception), but he was in cruise control throughout this game. After seven innings and 107 pitches, it was time to lift him and turn to our bullpen. And that is when Lucy yanked the football away once again.

We spent the winter trying to secure a closer. We tried to trade for one and failed. We tried to sign one in the auction, and even bid more than we ever wanted to bid for a reliever, and went 0-for-3. That left only three viable closers on the free agent market, and with the eighth overall pick in the draft, we felt fairly confident we would get one of them. But no. So, instead, we settled for the consolation prize of David Phelps.

Aside from issuing a few too many walks to left-handers, Phelps is a pretty decent reliever. Used in the right situations, he could be tremendously useful. I brought him into what I thought was an appropriate situation, where he would face two right handers in the next three batters in the order. Instead, Blazers skipper Anthony Peburn pinch hit for his expensive shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, sending lefty Greg Garcia to the plate instead.

No problem, I figured. Garcia draws a lot of walks, and Phelps issues a lot them, so that's probably what will happen. But no. Garcia doubled to lead off the inning. After Phelps whiffed another left-handed pinch hitter, that brought righty James McCann to the plate. Let me pause here a minute to give you McCann's numbers against righties:

.201/.243/.268

I wasn't even sure why McCann was in the lineup, frankly. I was ecstatic when a pinch hitter wasn't called to hit for him. My ecstasy didn't last long. McCann roped a base hit to center, easily scoring Garcia from second.

No problem, I thought. We're still up by a run. New Milford had Carpenter, Betts, and Freeman stepping to the plate. Carpenter and Freeman are both left-handed, and Betts can't hit lefties. So, the no-brainer move was to send my best left-handed pitcher, Mike Montgomery, out to the mound to shut this shit down.

The first batter, Carpenter, whiffed. Visions of winning the OL Manager of the Year swirled in my head.

Betts, who -- again -- can't hit lefties, singled. That's okay, though. He's still a good hitter, and we only need one more out.

Up stepped Freddie Freeman, New Milford's $13.5 million free agent winter bonus baby.

Double to the gap. Two runs scored. Game over.

That familiar sensation of boiling blood churned in my gut once more. Welcome, old friend. How I haven't missed you a bit.

That sensation continued in Game Two. Masahiro Tanaka, who our offense beat like a red-headed Jesse Pinkman in the preseason, completely shut down our righty-bashing, tailor-made-for-Nestle Field lineup. We managed all of two bloop singles through the first six innings. Gary Sanchez put us on the board in the seventh with the first home run of his BDBL career, but that was all the scoring we would do in this game.

After a 6-0 preseason, we then sat with an 0-2 record for the games that actually count.

Game Three kept the blood boiling. New Milford carried a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning. Once again, our high-octane offense decided to take the day off. Or so it seemed. Finally, in the seventh inning, the Cowtippers I knew and loved in the preseason finally showed up. Trea Turner got the ball rolling with a three-run pinch-hit bomb -- the first of his BDBL career. We scored four more runs in the eighth inning, and three more in the ninth. We scored 11 runs in the game -- ten of them in the final three innings!

At last, we had our first victory of 2017.

Just as it seemed our 2017 season would be filled with even more disappointment, we had reason for optimism once again. Hope was alive. Maybe this could be our year after all.

We handed the ball to Junior Guerra in Game Four, and he did not disappoint. He gave us six strong innings of shutout pitching, allowing just three hits and four walks. We then turned the game over to our bullpen trio of Rubby de la Rosa, David Phelps, and Sammy Solis. Incredibly, they managed to handle the workload, surrendering only one run.

We escaped with a split. If you had told me before this series we would split, I would've been disappointed. If you told me in the sixth inning of Game One that we would split, I would've been extremely disappointed. Given the circumstances, however, we'll take it. This is the first time since 2012 that we haven't begun a season with a losing record after one series.

One thing I have learned about this 2017 Cowtippers team is that they are extremely fun to manage. There is just so much flexibility on this roster. I can move guys around in the starting lineup or during the game, and really take advantage of situations as they develop. If I need a power bat at a certain point, I have one. If I need a guy to draw a walk or put a ball in play, we have that, too. Nearly every player on this team can steal a base if needed, and nearly every one of them can go first to third or second to home without much risk.

We have three players on the active roster who are rated at shortstop, three who are rated in center field, and one who is rated at third base, shortstop, and left field. In the bullpen, we have three relievers who are also rated as starters. We have righty-specialists, lefty-specialists, and reverse-split specialists. It really is fun moving all of these chess pieces around the board.

Best of luck to all my fellow GM's and managers this season. May Lucy not yank away your football.

2017 Cowtippers Farm Report

In 2016, we stockpiled farm talent. In 2017, we unloaded most of that talent in order to compete. Such is life on the Salem farm. Had we not sacrificed Amed Rosario, Blake Rutherford, Chance Adams, Aaron Judge, Dominic Smith, Corey Ray, Jorge Mateo, Jeff Hoffman, and Austin Hedges this winter, I believe the Salem farm club would have ranked #1 in this year's BDBL Farm Report. That would have been the first #1 ranking since 2003! As it stands, I believe we should rank among the top 5-10 farm systems even after all of our wheeling and dealing. 

Salem's Top Ten Prospects

1. Shohei Otani, p
Born: July 5, 1994 (age 22). B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 189. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Otani has had some remarkable seasons in the past, but 2016 was his best performance to date. The greatest player in the Japanese NPB, Otani set career highs in several categories. The most recent collective bargaining agreement severely reduces Otani's potential earning power when he comes to the US; however, according to his manager, he plans to make that transition after the 2017 season regardless of the money.

Stats: Otani's 1.86 ERA last season was a career-best. In 140 innings, he allowed only 89 hits (5.7 per nine!), 45 walks, and just four home runs. He struck out 174 batters, which is a career-best rate of 11.2 per nine. But that's only half the story. He also had a career year at the plate. In 382 PA's (another career-high), Otani batted .322/.416/.588 (all career-highs), with 22 home runs!

The Future: There is little doubt that Otani will come to the US after next season, which would put him in a 'Tippers uniform in 2019. We resisted the temptation to deal him this winter. We only need to keep resisting that temptation, and the reward could be legendary.

2. Andrew Benintendi, of
Born: July 6, 1994 (age 22.) B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-10. Wt: 170. Acquired: via trade, Chapter Three, 2016.

Background: Who in his right mind trades Kris Bryant? The reigning National League MVP, Bryant is arguably the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout, and has just begun a career that could potentially end in Cooperstown. To trade such a talent would have to require quite a haul in return -- and that is what we feel we received when we traded Bryant last year. Benintendi was the major piece in that trade. He is exactly the type of player we wanted as the centerpiece of our franchise. We envision him having an Alex Gordon type of career, only hopefully without the early struggles. We flipped another piece of that trade, Miguel Sano, for Gary Sanchez. A third piece, Austin Hedges, was traded for Miguel Cabrera. To get three for the price of one was a deal too tempting to reject.

Stats: Benintendi had nothing more to prove in the minor leagues after destroying the New York Penn and Sally Leagues in 2015, but Boston sent him back to the bush leagues to begin the 2016 season anyway. He continued to destroy minor league pitching until he could be held back no more and the Red Sox promoted him for good on August 10th. He basically compiled the equivalent of a full season in the minor leagues, in which he hit .312/.392/.540 in 657 PA's. He clubbed 38 doubles, 16 triples, and 20 home runs and walked (74) more often than he struck out (63). He also stole 26 bases for good measure.

In his MLB debut, he hit .295/.359/.476 in a very limited 118 PA sample, cut short by a freak injury in September.

The Future: Barring another freak injury, we expect Benintendi to be our full-time, middle-of-the-lineup, star in 2018 and beyond. He should be ranked among the top 3-5 prospects in the game when this year's BDBL Farm Report is released.

3. Rafael Devers, 3b
Born: October 24, 1996 (age 20). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 195. Acquired: 6th round, summer, 2013 draft

Background: For the first time in his professional career, Devers struggled during his first month at the High-A level. He hit just .138/.242/.263 in the month of April and followed that with a .245/.301/.351 performance in May. At last, he turned his season around in June and carried that momentum into the offseason.

Stats: Overall, his 2016 performance looks nearly identical to 2015: .282/.335/.443, with 11 home runs and 32 doubles in 503 at-bats. It doesn't look all that impressive until you realize that he played the entire season at age 19. Jomar Reyes and Gleyber Torres were the only two hitters younger than Devers in the Carolina League. In addition to his hitting, Devers reportedly made greats strides defensively, and now looks to be an asset at third base.

The Future: Devers should begin 2017 at the Double-A level, where we will finally get a chance to scout him in person. If he can carry his momentum into this coming season, there is a slim chance we could see him get a cup of coffee in September. More than likely, however, it will be 2019 at the earliest before we see him in a Cowtippers uniform.

4. J.B. Bukauskas, p
Born: August 11, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 196. Acquired: 1st round, 2017 Farm Draft

Background: Bukauskas was released by the Granite State Lightning on Cutdown Day, and we were more than happy to pick him back up in the draft. A hard-throwing right-hander, Bukauskas has a "70" fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also throws a mid-80's slider that is graded a 60. He is currently ranked as the #6 prospect in the upcoming draft by MLB.com.

Stats: J.B. ranked third in NCAA Division I baseball last year with a 12.8 strikeouts per nine rate. In 78+ innings, he allowed 68 hits and 29 walks, with 111 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA. With Team USA this summer, he allowed only one run in 21+ innings.

The Future: Way back in 2003, we took a flier on a young college pitcher from Old Dominion in the eighth round of the winter farm draft. We selected that pitcher based on his scouting reports and his high strikeout rate in college. A few months later, we traded that pitcher in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That college kid, Justin Verlander, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. We're hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again -- only this time, we'll hang onto it.

5. Brady Singer, p
Born: August 4, 1996 (age 20). B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-5. Wt: 190. Acquired: 2nd round, 2017 Farm Draft

Background: Singer is a rising sophomore with the University of Florida Gators. He was the highest-picked draftee from 2015 who decided to attend college instead of signing a professional contract. He will not be draft-eligible again until 2018, when he should be considered among the top prospects available. This summer, he was ranked by Baseball America as the top prospect in the Cape Cod League.

Stats: As a freshman, Singer tossed 43+ innings for the Gators, and allowed 43 hits and 17 walks, with 38 strikeouts. His 4.95 ERA was the highest on the team. During the Cape League this summer, he posted a minuscule 0.64 ERA in 28 innings, with 25 strikeouts.

The Future: Aside from his summer experience, Singer's numbers have yet to match his scouting reports. His sophomore season will either reveal a hidden gem or an overreach by our draft team. Time will tell.

6. Lucas Erceg, 3b
Born: May 1, 1995 (age 21). B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 200. Acquired: 3rd round, 2017 Farm Draft

Background: Erceg may have been the only player to elicit "damn-you's" from multiple teams when he was drafted this winter. Ranked as the #4 prospect in the Pioneer League and #20 prospect in the Midwest League, Erceg was a second round draft pick by the Brewers in 2016. He dominated the Pioneer League before a quick promotion to the Single-A Midwest League. He draws comparisons to Matt Carpenter because of his smooth left-handed swing.

Stats: Erceg completely overmatched Pioneer League pitching, hitting .400/.452/.552 in a short 105-AB sample. Upon his promotion, he hit .281/.328/.497 in 167 at-bats. He owns a respectable 20/54 BB/K ratio in his brief professional career.


The Future: Erceg is the type of player who can advance rapidly, both through the system and up the prospect ranking. If everything falls into place for him, he could be a top 50 prospect at this time next year.

7. Henry Owens, p
Born: July 21, 1992 (age 24). B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 220. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2017

Background: Way back in December of 2007, we took a flier on a 24-year-old left-hander with the Boston Red Sox organization. The kid was raw. He walked way too many batters, and was approaching the age where it was becoming clear he would never figure it out. We saw something in that kid, though, so we took a gamble on him, and acquired him (along with a young Dellin Betances) in trade with the Ravenswood Infidels. A little more than a month later, we foolishly traded him to the Los Altos Undertakers in exchange for a mostly useless reliever. That young kid's name was Jon Lester. We're hoping history will repeat itself -- right up to the foolish part. 

Stats: Owens' MLB performance last year was pretty much a disaster, albeit in a very small sample. In 22 innings, he allowed a whopping 20 walks and five longballs. He posted an ugly 6.95 ERA, which raised his MLB career ERA (in 85 innings) to 5.19. Although his Triple-A ERA was much better (3.53), he still walked more than five batters per nine (81 walks in 137+ innings.)



The Future: Look up the word "flyer" in the dictionary, and there's a picture of Owens staring back at you. The Boston starting rotation is so jam-packed that there doesn't seem to be any room for Owens on the big league roster. A trade to some team with a fantastic pitching coach would be a godsend. This is a make-or-break year for his career.

8. Vladimir Gutierrez, p
Born: September 18, 1995 (age 22.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 170. Acquired: 5th round, 2014 summer draft.

Background: Gutierrez was ranked the twelfth best prospect in Cuba by BA before his defection. He then spent more than a year trying out for various teams and underwhelming the scouts who attended. Perhaps it was fatigue or the long layoff, but eventually he regained the fastball and curveball that led to his glowing scouting reports in Cuba. On August 30th of last year, the Reds paid a whopping $4.75 million to sign him. Since then, he has worked out at instructional camp and has hit the weights. 2017 will be his US professional debut.

Stats: In his debut season in the Cuban National League, Gutierrez posted a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings, with 40 walks and 44 strikeouts. In his abbreviated second season, his ERA fell to 2.45 in 51+ innings. He cut his walks in half (19) and struck out 49 batters.

The Future: Gutierrez is likely to begin his US career in the Midwest League. Where he goes from there depends on how accurate those scouting reports were.

9. Adrian Rondon, ss
Born: July 7, 1998 (age 18.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 190. Acquired: via trade, winter, 2016.

Background: Ranked as the #7 prospect in the Appalachian League, Rondon was one of the youngest players in the league last year. He exploded out of the gate, but then seemed to wear down as the season progressed. He was considered to be the #1 prospect in the 2014 international draft class.

Stats: Rondon followed an abysmal professional debut by hitting a respectable .249/.301/.430 in 193 at-bats. He slugged seven home runs, ten doubles, and two triples. He also posted a 13/58 BB/K ratio.


The Future: Rondon's path to the big leagues, assuming there is one, will be a long one. Assuming he advances one level per year, it will be four more years before he reaches the big leagues. That means we won't see him in Salem until 2022 at the earliest. Hopefully this league is still around by then.

10. Ryan Castellani, p

Born: April 1, 1996 (age 21.) B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 193. Acquired: drafted 5th round, 2017 winter farm draft.

Background: Castellani was ranked as the #1 prospect in the California League by Baseball America, and yet he fell to the fifth round of the BDBL farm draft. On the plus side, he performed exceptionally well despite being one of the youngest players in the league and pitching in a league that is notoriously difficult for pitchers. On the downside, his numbers look rather pedestrian compared to other top prospects. According to reports, he owns three "plus" pitches -- all of which he commands well. He has earned comparisons to Max Scherzer for the way he approaches the game.

Stats: Overall, Castellani allowed 156 hits and 50 walks in 168 innings, and struck out 142 batters. He finished the year strong, with a 2.37 ERA in his final seven starts.

The Future: Baseball America described him as a "front of the rotation workhorse." If that label sticks, the Cowtippers will have landed a bargain. If not, it's only a fifth round pick.

The State of the Tippers, Winter Edition

It has been another active and exciting winter trading season here in Salem. Our primary goal this winter was to build a competitive team without sacrificing our core players: Miguel Sano, Amed Rosario, Andrew Benintendi, Shohei Otani, Rafael Devers, Stephen Matz, Jon Gray, and Trea Turner. We would have succeeded in that mission if not for the trades of Sano and Rosario to Granite State. However, we feel that both trades were justified for different reasons.

By trading Sano, we received another player that we hope can join that core in Gary Sanchez. Since the beginning of this franchise, when we drafted a young Ben Davis at a salary of $2 million, we have been searching for our "catcher of the future." That search has led us to the likes of Jeff Clement, Matt LeCroy, Kurt Suzuki, Jeremy Brown, Kenji Johjima, and countless others. Needless to say, our track record with catchers has been abysmal. We're hoping that Sanchez can finally break that trend.

As for Rosario, we had countless opportunities to trade him over the years. We've had numerous offers for him, and we have offered him in many offers ourselves. Thankfully, none of those offers materialized. We received many offers for Rosario this winter, and nearly traded him for an ace starting pitcher earlier this winter. We rejected that temptation, as we believe that Rosario will be an all-star MLB shortstop in the very near future. However, when the Washington Nationals traded their shortstop, Danny Espinoza, to the Angels, that meant Trea Turner would be moving back to shortstop. Suddenly, we had one too many "shortstops of the future."

The opportunity to acquire an MVP bat like Jose Altuve's was too tempting to dismiss. Although he will only play one year for us, we look forward to seeing him at the top of the Salem lineup this year. Trading Altuve also meant that we could fortify our bullpen by trading our second baseman, Neil Walker. We did just that, receiving lefty Mike Montgomery in return. We feel that Mike will have some future value that will offset the loss of the future value we traded in Rosario.

As it now stands, the Salem starting lineup looks very strong this season. In addition to Altuve, we recently acquired lefty masher Kyle Seager to play third base. This allows us to shift Jose Ramirez to shortstop against right-handers, which sends our expensive albatross, Starlin Castro, to the bench where he belongs.

As we head into the auction, our starting lineup looks very strong against both left-handed and right-handed pitching:

vs. LH			vs. RH
CF Turner	.317/.338/.413 (65)		2B Altuve	.348/.398/.544 (531)
2B Altuve	.306/.391/.494 (186)		LF Herrera*	.303/.374/.467 (494)
LF Werth	.322/.411/.620 (141)		SS Ramirez	.312/.361/.457 (436)
1B Cabrera	.302/.409/.517 (176)		3B Seager*	.307/.394/.538 (437)
3B Ramirez	.311/.368/.473 (182)		C Sanchez	.338/.404/.689 (166)
C Ruiz	.271/.407/.386 (86)		1B Cabrera	.321/.388/.578 (503)
RF Soler	.267/.345/.467 (84)		RF Dickerson*	.254/.333/.477 (219)
SS Sardinas	.302/.343/.492 (69)		CF Turner	.348/.378/.607 (259)

Obviously, we will need to frequently substitute for Turner, Sanchez, and some others, but we have some capable backups in place for those occasions. Our starting rotation looks strong as well:

Strasburg	148-119-15-44-183 (615/658)
Shoemaker	160-166-18-30-143 (705/745)
Matz*	132-129-14-31-129 (698/686)
Gray	168-153-18-59-185 (694/712)
Guerra	122-94-10-43-100 (618/645)
Norris*	69-75-10-22-71 (648/800)

And our bullpen is rounding into shape:

Solis*	41-31-1-21-47 (556/639)
Iglesias	78-63-7-26-83 (777/483)
de la Rosa	51-43-8-20-54 (656/725)
O'Rourke*	25-18-3-10-24 (359/725)
Montgomery*	100-79-8-38-92 (570/691)
Hunter	34-35-1-8-23 (715/656)

We have a little more than $15 million to play with in the auction and draft, and we've yet to decide what we will do with that. Our farm system (which we believe would have ranked #1 in this year's Farm Report if we hadn't made any trades this winter) has been depleted, so we still have a lot of work ahead of us.

Our goal isn't to merely compete this year, but to compete for the next several years. This past year, two franchises developed the blueprint that we would like to follow: the Chicago Cubs and the Los Altos Undertakers. If we can mimic even a fraction of the success those two franchises have experienced, then we will consider it a great success.

'Tippers Announce 2017 Trades

The end of the BDBL World Series means the official beginning of the 2017 season. With that comes the announcement of trades that were made during the league's "quiet period." The Salem Cowtippers front office has been working tirelessly over the past month to secure the pieces they need to launch the 2017 Cowtippers back into contention. Today, we announce the completion of three trades that have been made so far that we hope will achieve that goal.

Trade #1: Salem traded Jeff Hoffman, Austin Hedges, and Huston Street to Charlotte for Miguel Cabrera.

It is difficult to justify trading prospects for a $13 million player when we could easily spend that money on a free agent instead without sacrificing any prospects. Freddie Freeman, for example, would be a comparable player to Cabrera, and will likely sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of $13 million in January.

We justify this decision for several reasons. First, this trade gives us certainty. History has proven that the auction is filled with uncertainty, and there are no guarantees. Secondly, Cabrera fills a desperate need for a middle-of-the-lineup, MVP-caliber, hitter, at a position where we had few desirable options. Thirdly, we only need to commit to two years with Cabrera, and we have hindsight with the first year. He is among the most consistent hitters in the game, and is a solid bet for 2018 as well. Lastly, the inclusion of Street (a $1.5 million cut) lowers Cabrera's cost to $11.5 million. For that price, it would be difficult to find an equally good hitter in the auction.

We have several good, young arms on our staff, which makes Hoffman somewhat expendable. And our next trade made Hedges expendable.

Trade #2: Salem traded Miguel Sano and Jorge Mateo to Granite State for Gary Sanchez and Odubel Herrera.

When we acquired Sano last year, we never intended to trade him. This is why we can't have nice things. It became clear to us after several weeks of negotiating with numerous teams that we would have to deal Sano if we were going to make any progress this winter. With Jose Ramirez at third base this season, and Rafael Devers set to take over the hot corner in the near future, Sano had become homeless. We believe that he will become an annual 30-40 home run hitter in the coming years, but we had to make this move in order to compete.

Likewise, we have very high expectations for Mateo. We believe that he has the potential to become a Trea Turner-like center fielder in the near future. However, given that we already have Turner, Mateo became somewhat expendable.

We will get roughly two chapters of usage out of Sanchez this season. When he is in the lineup, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Moving forward, we hope that he will become the long-term solution behind the plate that we have been looking for since this franchise was born.

Herrera gives us a solid left-handed bat in our righty-heavy lineup. He also fills a need in the outfield, where both Turner and Alex Dickerson are limited in usage. With this trade, we can now field a starting lineup with six hitters with an 800+ OPS against right-handers.

Trade #3: Salem traded Mike Fiers to Cleveland for Luis Sardinas.

This was actually our first trade of the 2017 season. We had great expectations for Fiers in MLB this past season, but he disappointed with a very inconsistent performance. He would have been an innings-filler for us in 2017. Instead, we flipped him for a useful part-time shortstop who will fill in against left-handers on occasion. With the addition of Sardinas, we can now field a lineup that includes six hitters with an 800+ OPS against left-handers.

There is still more work to do with our 2017 team. Our focus for the remainder of the trading season will be filling out our pitching staff. If we come up empty on the trading front, then we will have roughly $15 million to spend on free agents. The 2017 Cowtippers don't look like a division winner on paper as of yet, but we're making progress.

The State of the 'Tippers, 2017: Offense

Turning to the offense...

Trea Turner was supposed to be the starting shortstop for the Washington Nationals on Opening Day. Everyone in the baseball world recognized that this kid was ready for primetime, and that it would be a complete waste of his talent to let him spend any more time in the minor leagues. Naturally, that's just what the Nationals did (as that is always what they seem to do.) After they were done dicking around with his service time, Turner was finally called up. He proceeded to explode onto the MLB scene: .342/.370/.567, with 13 homers, 8 triples, and 33 stolen bases in 39 attempts. Thanks to all that dicking around, though, he amassed only 324 plate appearances.

When we made the big Kris Bryant trade earlier this year, we knew exactly the risk we were taking. The goal was to spread that risk through diversification. A major element of our more diversified portfolio was Miguel Sano. Of course, within days of making that trade, Sano missed a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring strain. Then he hurt his elbow and missed even more time. Then he hurt his back. This is a 23-year-old kid we're talking about. By the time the dust settled, Sano managed only 495 PA's, with a disappointing .236/.319/.462 triple-slash line. Chalk it up as a wasted season. He will likely serve in a platoon role for us next season.

Another major factor in that trade decision was the acquisition of Andrew Benintendi. We are extremely high on this kid, and believe that he is the piece of the puzzle that we've been missing since Alex Gordon said goodbye to Salem. Unfortunately, the Red Sox also dicked around with Benintendi's service time. After tearing up NCAA and three levels of the minor leagues, it was obvious that he was ready for the big time very early in the year. Instead, the Sox waited until August to promote him. Then, of course, he twisted his knee and missed over two weeks of the remainder of the season. That left him with just 118 PA's, making him a valuable pinch hitter for us in 2017.

We signed Neil Walker as a free agent last winter with the intention of eventually trading him during the season. Instead, he exploded out of the gate, and finished the season with a .282/.347/.476 batting line. Unfortunately, he, too, missed a significant portion of the season due to injury, and ended up with only 458 PA's -- barely enough to avoid the split usage limitations.

Travis Shaw was another player we drafted with the sole purpose of flipping him in trade. But he, too, caught fire early in the season, and was hitting .292/.358/.508 at the end of May. It was around that time that Bob Sylvester offered Jameson Taillon for Shaw, straight-up. We said no. Seriously, that happened. Needless to say, Shaw went into a tailspin after that, and finished with a mostly-useless batting line of .242/.306/.421. Meanwhile, Taillon overcame his past injury issues, was promoted to the majors, and became one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game.

Last winter, we took a gamble by making a deal with the Akron Ryche in which we sent high school phenom Austin Bergner to Akron in exchange for Jose Ramirez. The gamble was two-fold: Bergner (at the time) was ranked the #1 prospect in the Class of 2016, and Ramirez carried a $2 million salary and a MLB career OPS of .604. Needless to say, that trade worked out well for us. Ramirez was among the bigger surprises in MLB, and finished the season with a line of .312/.363/.462. Bergner wasn't selected until the 38th round (pick number 1,138.) You lose some, and once in a blue moon you win some.

When the Granite State Lightning traded Justin Upton to the St. Louis Apostles last winter, and St. Louis GM Bobby Sylvester insisted that it was a salary dump trade, I made the comment that I would have taken Upton's contract in exchange for nothing. Sylvester took me up on the offer (although I somehow ended up giving something.) At the time, we looked at Upton as a terrific bounce-back candidate after a disappointing 2015 MLB season. At the all-star break, however, it looked as though his career was finished. His .235/.289/.381 batting line ranked among the worst in baseball. Then, the Detroit Tigers gave him a few days to think about how much he sucked. Upton hit .260/.337/.579 in the second half of the season and turned his season around. Incredibly, he hit .292/.382/.750 (yes, .750!) in the month of September, with a whopping 13 homers. His overall line of .246/.310/.465 is hardly awe-inspiring, but at least it has some value.

This was the season when Jorge Soler was supposed to break out and become the MVP candidate that we envisioned when he first exploded onto the MLB scene. He posted an .898 OPS in his brief minor league career, and then hit .292/.330/.573 in his MLB debut in 2014. 2015 was a huge disappointment (.262/.324/.399), but he capped that season with a phenomenal postseason performance that seemed to portend that great things were ahead. Or so we thought when we traded for him last winter. Instead, Soler began the first half of the season hitting just .223/.322/.377. Like Upton, he turned his season around in the second half (.258/.348/.515), but like Upton, his overall performance isn't strong enough to make him an asset for us in 2017.

Upton and Soler both came to the Cowtippers in the same trade (in which we sacrificed Freddie Freeman, Chris Coghlan, Luis Valbuena, and Yadier Alvarez.) We received pitcher Jon Gray in that deal as well. We also took on Starlin Castro's albatross of a contract. The best that we can say about Castro's MLB 2016 performance is that it wasn't as bad as his 2015 "effort." He hit .270/.300/.433 overall, with 21 homers. We're hoping that his three games at shortstop will mean that he will be rated at that position, and that his rating will be adequate enough for us to play him at that position. If not, I have no idea what we'll do with him.

Lastly, we picked up Alex Dickerson off the free agent scrap heap earlier this season. While we were hoping he would get a little more playing time down the stretch, we'll settle for his .254/.333/.477 batting line against righties and stick him in a platoon role with Jorge Soler.

vs. LH	PA	BA	OBP	SLG
CF Turner	65	.317	.338	.413
2B Walker	110	.330	.391	.610
3B Ramirez	182	.311	.368	.473
1B Sano	114	.227	.333	.485
RF Soler	84	.267	.345	.467
LF Upton	179	.236	.313	.441
SS Castro	172	.265	.308	.432
C ?
vs. RH
CF Turner	259	.348	.378	.607
RF Dickerson	219	.254	.333	.477
3B Ramirez	436	.312	.361	.457
2B Walker	348	.266	.333	.433
1B Sano	381	.238	.315	.456
LF Upton	447	.249	.309	.474
SS Castro	172	.265	.308	.432
C ?